Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot - spot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It presents the market mainstream views on different asset classes, including their price trends, strategy viewpoints, and corresponding利多 and利空 logics [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From May 12 to May 16, 2025, ethylene glycol had the highest weekly increase of 5.74% among commodities, while gold had the largest decline of 4.64%. Other commodities like iron ore, PTA, etc., also had different degrees of price changes [3]. - **Equities**: The NASDAQ Index had a significant increase of 7.15%, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.09%, while the CSI 500 decreased by 0.10% [3]. - **Bonds**: Chinese government bonds of 5 - year, 2 - year, and 10 - year terms all had price increases, with the 5 - year bond rising 4.06% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US Dollar Index increased by 0.56%, while the Euro - US Dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.76% [3]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors include successful Sino - US tariff negotiations, a relatively loose market capital supply, and growth in the social financing scale.利空 factors are net out - flow of industry funds, reduction in ETF shares, and conservative domestic policies [5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are the unchanged loose monetary policy and reduced expectations of fiscal stimulus.利空 factors are the recovery of market risk appetite and limited space for further interest - rate cuts [5]. 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are low global crude oil inventories, positive Sino - US negotiation results, and potential uncertainty in OPEC+ production increases.利空 factors are Iran's potential nuclear - deal signing and an increase in US crude oil inventories [6]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are the growth of Malaysian palm oil shipping data, increased export competitiveness, and potential replenishment demand in India.利空 factors are high inventory pressure and a decline in crude oil prices [6]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are low copper concentrate TC, positive Sino - US tariff negotiations, and strong terminal demand.利空 factors are weak overseas demand and high inventory in China [7]. 3.2.5 Chemical Sector - **Soda Ash**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are concentrated maintenance in May and high exports.利空 factors are high industry inventory, new production capacity, and weak downstream demand [7]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors are the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and geopolitical uncertainties.利空 factors are the recovery of risk appetite and capital out - flow from gold ETFs [8]. 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are high molten iron production and low port inventory.利空 factors are expected increase in supply and weakening demand [8].

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In April 2025, new social financing (社融) reached 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 trillion yuan, raising the social financing stock growth rate to 8.7%, the highest since March 2024[5] - The increase in social financing was partly due to a low base from the previous year, where April 2024 saw a decrease of 658 million yuan in new social financing[7] - Government bond issuance accelerated, with net financing of 4.85 trillion yuan from January to April 2025, and 976.2 billion yuan in April alone, a year-on-year increase of over 1 trillion yuan[7] Group 2: Credit and Loan Insights - In April 2025, new credit amounted to 280 billion yuan, a decrease of 450 billion yuan year-on-year, with corporate bill financing being the main support at 834.1 billion yuan[12] - The decline in credit performance in April is attributed to several factors, including local government debt replacement leading to loan repayments and external trade tensions affecting export financing activities[12] - Resident loans decreased by 521.6 billion yuan in April, indicating a need for improved leverage willingness among households[16] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - M2 growth rebounded to 8.0% in April, up 1 percentage point from March, primarily due to a low base effect from the previous year[21] - The short-term policy stance has been clarified in recent political meetings, indicating a gradual approach to policy adjustments, with a focus on real estate and domestic demand trends[21] - External uncertainties are rising, which may impact future economic data and financial metrics, prompting potential additional policy measures if conditions weaken[25]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China reported that in April, new RMB loans increased by 280 billion yuan, a decrease of 450 billion yuan year-on-year, while the new social financing scale was 1,158.5 billion yuan, an increase of 1,224.3 billion yuan year-on-year [2] - The decline in new loans is attributed to seasonal factors, with April traditionally being a "small credit month," and increased global trade frictions contributing to market uncertainty and a slowdown in credit expansion for foreign trade enterprises and residents [2][3] - Corporate loans increased by 610 billion yuan in April, which is a decrease of 250 billion yuan compared to April of the previous year, while household loans decreased by 521.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - In April, corporate medium- and long-term loans, short-term loans, and bill financing increased by 250 billion yuan, decreased by 480 billion yuan, and increased by 834.1 billion yuan respectively, with significant decreases in medium- and long-term loans compared to April 2024 [3] - The changes in corporate loans are linked to a sharp change in the external environment in April, leading to increased uncertainty in future expectations for enterprises [3] - The focus of economic policy remains on expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption, particularly in service consumption, with the central bank establishing a 500 billion yuan "service consumption and pension relending" program to support key sectors [3][4]

Core Viewpoints - The recovery in March credit data is primarily driven by an increase in short-term loans from enterprises, while the growth of medium- to long-term loans, which reflect enterprise investment demand, remains relatively subdued. The total new credit in March reached 3.64 trillion yuan, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 2.93 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 550 billion yuan [2][8][47] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock rebounded by 0.2 percentage points to 8.4%, mainly driven by the advance of fiscal financing, which may become a key feature of fiscal policy execution this year. In March, net financing from government bonds reached 1.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.02 trillion yuan year-on-year [2][14][47] Credit and Financing Data - In March, new credit totaled 3.64 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 550 billion yuan, primarily due to the rise in short-term loans from enterprises. The breakdown shows that household loans increased by 985.3 billion yuan, with short-term loans contributing 484.1 billion yuan and medium- to long-term loans adding 504.7 billion yuan [4][22][49] - The total social financing in March was 5.88 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.05 trillion yuan, with RMB loans being the main support. Government bond net financing remained high, while corporate bond financing showed a significant decline [30][49] Monetary Aggregates - M2 remained stable at a year-on-year growth rate of 7.0%, while the new M1 showed a recovery of 1.5 percentage points to 1.6%. The deposit structure indicates that household deposits increased by 3.09 trillion yuan, and corporate deposits rose by 2.84 trillion yuan, while fiscal deposits decreased by 771 billion yuan [5][39][50]