（来源：中国宁波网） 转自：中国宁波网 黄金、白银强劲反弹。 当地时间2月13日，现货黄金涨2.39%，重回5000美元上方，报5042.205美元/盎司，今年以来涨 16.76%；现货白银涨2.81%，报77.338美元/盎司，今年以来涨8.05%。 国际贵金属期货周五同样普遍收涨，Wind数据显示，COMEX黄金期货涨2.33%，报5063.80美元/盎司， 本周累计上涨1.51%；COMEX白银期货，涨2.10%报77.27美元/盎司，本周累计下跌0.33%。黄金价格在 经历史诗级暴跌后，已连续第二周价格回升，但白银价格仍在持续下行。 高盛资产管理公司多行业固定收益投资主管Lindsay Rosner表示，鉴于美国1月CPI数据并未如担忧那般 强劲，美联储的"正常化"降息路径似乎更加清晰。这将取决于就业市场是否继续呈现改善迹象，因为美 联储对劳动力市场疲软的敏感度很高，预期美联储今年将降息两次，下一次降息或将在今年6月份进 行。 此外，地缘政治方面的局势演变也支撑了贵金属资产吸引力。据央视新闻报道，当地时间2月13日，美 国总统特朗普证实，美军将向中东地区派出第二个航空母舰打击群，以此施压伊朗同美国达成 ...

野村证券国际美国利率策略主管Jonathan Cohn表示，通胀数据带来的积极反应受到就业市场持续改善前景的限制，因为这削弱了美联储进 一步降息的必要性。 "这再次表明，美联储更敏感的仍是就业这一政策目标。"Cohn还提到，"我认为，本周我们看到金融市场上的一部分重新定价（抛售），其 实更多是风险情绪转弱，而不是经济数据本身所致。" 高盛资产管理公司多行业固定收益投资主管Lindsay Rosner表示，鉴于美国1月CPI数据并未如担忧那般强劲，美联储的"正常化"降息路径似 乎更加清晰。这将取决于就业市场是否继续呈现改善迹象，因为美联储对劳动力市场疲软的敏感度很高，预期美联储今年将降息两次，下 一次降息或将在今年6月份进行。 此外，地缘政治方面的局势演变也支撑了贵金属资产吸引力。据央视新闻报道，当地时间2月13日，美国总统特朗普证实，美军将向中东地 区派出第二个航空母舰打击群，以此施压伊朗同美国达成协议。 黄金、白银强劲反弹。 当地时间2月13日，现货黄金涨2.39%，重回5000美元上方，报5042.205美元/盎司，今年以来涨16.76%；现货白银涨2.81%，报77.338美元/ 盎司，今年以来涨8.0 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock indices closed mixed on February 13, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.1% at 49,500.93 points, the S&P 500 up 0.05% at 6,836.17 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.22% at 22,546.67 points. For the week, the Dow Jones fell 1.23%, the S&P 500 fell 1.39%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.1% [1] - The U.S. CPI data released showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4% in January, down from 2.7% in December, and below the economist's expectation of 2.5%. The core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month [4] - Following the CPI report, traders increased their bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates three times this year, with a 50% chance of a rate cut by the end of the year [4][5] Group 2 - International precious metal futures saw widespread gains, with COMEX gold futures rising 2.33% to $5,063.80 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.10% to $77.27 per ounce [2][7] - The rise in precious metal prices is attributed to multiple factors, including increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and a decline in the U.S. dollar index, enhancing the attractiveness of precious metals [8] - The oil market showed mixed results, with U.S. crude oil futures down 0.05% at $62.81 per barrel and Brent crude oil futures up 0.24% at $67.68 per barrel [9]

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market continues to exhibit volatile "roller coaster" trends in 2026, with gold prices reaching historical highs and experiencing significant fluctuations, indicating a complex interplay of market dynamics and investor sentiment [1][14]. Price Movements - In January 2026, the London spot gold price surged from $4,500 to $5,598.75 per ounce, marking a monthly increase of over 24%. However, by the end of January, gold experienced a sharp decline, with a single-day drop of 9%, the largest since 1980, reaching a low of $4,440 per ounce. By February 4, the price rebounded to over $5,050 per ounce before another drop [1][14]. Market Dynamics - Analysts suggest that the traditional factors influencing gold prices, such as geopolitical tensions, dollar exchange rates, and interest rates, are undergoing a shift in their impact. The current demand for gold reflects a reassessment of the international monetary system and geopolitical landscape, positioning gold as a strategic reserve against long-term uncertainties rather than merely an investment asset or temporary safe haven [3][16]. Changing Influences on Gold Prices - Historical data indicates that gold price fluctuations have long been influenced by factors like safe-haven demand, dollar credit, and real interest rates, but the weight of these factors has varied significantly over time. In the 1970s, inflation concerns drove gold prices, while from the 1980s to the early 21st century, economic growth and a strong dollar led to a prolonged period of low gold prices [4][17]. New Characteristics of the Current Gold Price Cycle - The current gold price increase is characterized by a structural shift, where traditional real interest rate logic is weakening. The dual drivers of safe-haven attributes and credit reassessment are becoming more prominent. With global debt at historical highs, gold's risk-hedging properties are amplified, shifting the pricing mechanism from cost-based to risk-based [6][19]. Dynamic Balance in Gold Pricing - In 2026, a phenomenon of "strong dollar" and "strong gold" coexists, with a noticeable reduction in the correlation between the two. This suggests that gold prices are seeking a new dynamic balance influenced by multiple factors [8][21]. Institutional Demand and Central Bank Purchases - Global central banks have transitioned from being net sellers to net buyers of gold, with purchases expected to remain high at around 755 tons in 2026, significantly above historical averages prior to 2022. This shift reflects a strategic reassessment of reserve asset security amid geopolitical uncertainties, with gold being viewed as a crucial defensive asset [11][24]. Strategic Role of Gold - The current trends indicate that gold is evolving from a mere financial investment tool to a strategic cornerstone for national economic security. As geopolitical dynamics stabilize, gold will continue to serve as a vital hedge against uncertainty, with its price fluctuations mirroring changes in the global political and economic landscape [13][26].

2026年以来，国际贵金属价格波动剧烈。1月29日，COMEX黄金期货价格一度升至5626.8美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货价格一度升至121.785美元/盎司，均创出历史最高纪录。然而，在创下历史新高后，市场突然遭遇猛烈 抛售。1月30日，COMEX黄金期货价格盘中跌幅超12%，创1980年以来最大单日跌幅；COMEX白银期货价格 盘中跌幅超35%，创历史最大单日跌幅。进入2月，贵金属价格保持高波动态势。市场人士认为，本轮贵金属价 格调整更偏向于短期交易拥挤度过高后的去杠杆过程，而非基本面趋势的系统性反转。对市场参与者而言，在 高波动常态化的市场环境中，对节奏与结构性机会的把握，将比单边趋势判断更为重要。 2025年，全球贵金属市场在宏观不确定性与流动性环境共同作用下持续走强，黄金与白银价格先后刷新历史高 位。上半年，美元信用边际收缩、地缘政治摩擦反复、美联储政策转向预期升温等因素推动避险与配置型资金 持续流入贵金属市场。下半年，随着全球经济"软着陆"预期逐步形成，白银在工业属性与金融属性共振下实现 补涨，金银比自高位区间回落，贵金属价格整体维持高斜率上行态势。2025年年末及2026年年初，贵金属市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced significant volatility, with prices rebounding sharply after a steep decline, driven by geopolitical tensions and changes in monetary policy [3][5][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On February 10, gold prices surged to $5031.87 per ounce, marking a daily increase of 1.46% after a previous drop to $4783 on February 6, which represented a decline of over 4.7% [3][5]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a closing price of 1127.92 yuan per gram for gold T+D, reflecting a slight increase of 0.52% from the previous day [3]. - The price of gold bars in banks fluctuated between 1134-1147 yuan per gram, while retail prices for gold jewelry remained high at around 1560 yuan per gram [5][8]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, alongside threats of increased tariffs by Trump, led to a surge in demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3][5]. - The Federal Reserve's indication of potential interest rate cuts contributed to a decline in the U.S. dollar index, further supporting gold prices [3][5]. - Central banks globally continued to increase their gold reserves, with China's central bank being a significant buyer, providing a strong support base for the market [3][8]. Group 3: Investment Trends - There is a noticeable shift in consumer behavior, with investors moving from jewelry purchases to gold bars due to a significant price gap of approximately 400 yuan per gram between retail and recovery prices [5][8]. - Institutional investors exhibit divergent views, with some warning of potential price corrections while others maintain bullish forecasts for gold prices, projecting increases to $6300 per ounce by the end of 2026 [6][8]. - The physical gold market is entering a traditional peak season, driven by demand for weddings and gifts around the Lunar New Year, which is expected to boost sales significantly [8]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest strong support for gold prices above 1120 yuan per gram, despite recent volatility [8]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has increased margin requirements for gold T+D to 18%, indicating potential for increased market volatility [5][8]. - Historical data shows that gold prices typically trend upward in the lead-up to and following the Lunar New Year, suggesting a seasonal pattern that may influence future price movements [10].

【汇金观势·金市日评】 风云变幻金市行，一叶知秋辨多空。趋势为纲行有度，点位如针定输赢。 美指长期下跌趋势，可以继续顺势做空为主。关注压力97和97.3，下方支撑96.4和95.6 全球央行持续购金筑牢底部，地缘风险与避险需求持续升温。美联储降息预期仍在，实际利率下行利好 金价。资金面持续流入，ETF与机构配置热情高涨，多头格局稳固。技术面守住关键支撑，回调空间有 限，上方还有新高潜力。黄金易涨难跌，多头主线不变，继续看涨。 意外关注实时走势分析 明势者知进退，懂势者掌盈亏，更多实时策略、精准点位解读，关注李槿后续更新！ 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 今日黄金高位震荡偏多符合预期，我们日内还是择机上攻为主。上方阻力短期关注5100-5080附近，这 里不破还是震荡，突破多头才能迎来进一步的上攻，看向5220-5300。下方支撑短期关注5000附近上下5 美金，接近不破先多。跌破5000下方调整进一步打开，强支撑在4850-4830附近多。最近两日看似波动 平缓，实则不简单，小心驶得万年船。 ...

第一金杨生，香港第一金，第一金官网，第一金平台，第一金代理 今日市场处于关键美国经济数据公布前的谨慎观望期，多空因素交织。 利多因素 1.美元指数走弱是近期金价重回5000美元上方的直接动力。同时，金价此前在4400美元的60日均线关键支撑位获得买盘，形成了技术性超跌反 弹。 2.近期美国ADP就业、JOLTS职位空缺等数据不及预期，显示劳动力市场降温，强化了市场对美联储降息的预期，提振了黄金配置需求。 3.全球央行持续购金（如中国央行已连续15个月增持），为市场提供了坚实的长期支撑。 利空因素 1.市场焦点完全集中于即将公布的美国非农就业报告和CPI数据，这将直接影响美联储政策路径，带来巨大不确定性。目前市场预期1月非农新增7 万人。 2.美联储新任主席提名人的潜在鹰派倾向，可能在未来某个时点提振美元，对金价构成脉冲式压力。 3.中国春节长假期间，国内市场休市而外盘正常交易，期间累积的波动可能引发节后开盘的剧烈行情，持仓过节风险较高。 综合分析 金价在触底反弹后，正测试近期震荡区间的上沿阻力。 关键价位 上方阻力： 第一阻力：5080-5100美元（日内高点及短期技术阻力）。 核心阻力：5150-5200美 ...

大家注意了！ 今天2月10日，国际金价稳稳站在5076美元/盎司的高位，国内金价也突破1130元/克，但仔细看行情，价格连续几天在窄幅区间 里打转，就像暴风雨前的宁静。 这种走势和去年底变盘前的模式几乎一模一样，当时金价在三角形收敛形态里憋了5天，随后单日波动超过 200美元。 现在市场正在重演历史：布林带越收越紧，多空双方在5050美元阻力位和4950美元支撑位之间来回拉扯，成交量却没缩水，说明大 资金都在等着方向突破。 更关键的是，本周三美国CPI数据即将公布，这份数据直接关系美联储降息预期，机构早已轻仓观望，一场大波动一 触即发。 当前金价的高位横盘状态并非偶然。 2026年1月底，金价刚经历了一场过山车行情：1月29日伦敦金现货价格冲上5598.75美元的历史峰值，但1 月30日单日暴跌超12%，最低触及4682美元，创下40年来最大跌幅。 暴跌背后是多重因素的爆发式共振。 一方面，特朗普在1月30日提名鹰派 倾向的凯文·沃什为美联储新任主席，市场对货币政策转向的预期骤变；另一方面，美国公布的PPI数据高于预期，通胀黏性强化了美元走强的 基础，导致黄金作为无息资产的吸引力下降。 同时，杠杆资金在价格高 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a slight drop followed by a rebound, with COMEX gold futures trading around $5,056 [1] - The performance of gold-related ETFs showed declines, with the Huaxia Gold ETF down 0.25%, the Nonferrous Metals ETF down 0.51%, and the Gold Stocks ETF down 1.23% [1] - Concerns over global debt and monetary policy are expected to benefit gold, as the U.S. national debt has surpassed $38.5 trillion, and the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill is projected to increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion [1] Group 2 - A weaker dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are identified as direct drivers for the rebound in gold prices [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, have shifted gold's safe-haven demand from a temporary impulse to a more sustained support [2] - The technical level of $5,000 has become a focal point for market dynamics, with long-term bullish sentiment on gold remaining intact despite potential short-term volatility [2]