Report Summary 1. Hot News - On July 25, 2025, the People's Bank of China will conduct 400 billion yuan of MLF operations with a one - year term [2] - As of now, the central budget investment in 2025 has been basically allocated, supporting various fields such as modern industrial system and infrastructure [2] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will accelerate the research and listing of power futures [2] - The EU has a 93 - billion - euro anti - tariff plan against the US, India aims to reach trade agreements with the US and has signed one with the UK [2] - Trump asked Powell to cut interest rates, and Trump's ally sued Powell to require FOMC to hold public meetings [3] 2. Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are coking coal, glass, coke, ethylene glycol, and pulp [4] 3. Night - session Performance - Non - metallic building materials rose 2.54%, precious metals 28.82%, oilseeds 12.19%, non - ferrous metals 2.90%, soft commodities 19.60%, coal - coking - steel - ore 14.93%, energy 3.22%, chemicals 11.79%, grains 1.15%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.88% [4] 4. Major Asset Performance - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.65%, the S&P 500 0.07%, and the Hang Seng Index 0.51% [6] - In the fixed - income category, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures declined [6] - In the commodity category, the CRB commodity index rose 0.17%, WTI crude oil 1.46%, and London spot gold fell 0.55% [6] - Other assets: the US dollar index rose 0.29%, and the CBOE volatility remained unchanged [6]

Core Point - The European Union has approved a countermeasure plan imposing tariffs on U.S. products totaling €93 billion [1] Group 1 - The measure was voted on and passed by EU member states on July 24 [1] - The total amount of the counter-tariffs is €93 billion [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses President Trump's announcement of imposing tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% on most countries, indicating a potential escalation in trade tensions [1] - The U.S. stock market saw a collective rise on the same day, with the Dow Jones up by 1.14%, Nasdaq up by 0.61%, and S&P 500 up by 0.78%, reflecting a positive market reaction to the news [1] Group 2 - The European Union is preparing for a potential breakdown in trade negotiations with the U.S., planning to impose tariffs on nearly €100 billion worth of U.S. goods if talks fail [2] - The EU's countermeasures include merging previous tariffs on €210 billion worth of U.S. goods with a new list covering €720 billion, which will be submitted for approval by EU member states [2] - Key U.S. products affected by these potential tariffs include Boeing aircraft, automobiles, and bourbon whiskey, with tariffs set to match those threatened by the U.S. [2] Group 3 - The White House announced that Japan will increase its imports of U.S. rice by 75% and expand its import quotas significantly [3] - Japan is set to purchase $8 billion worth of U.S. goods, including corn, soybeans, fertilizers, bioethanol, and sustainable aviation fuel [3] - A new agreement is being explored for Alaska's liquefied natural gas, and Japan has committed to purchasing U.S.-made commercial aircraft, including a deal for 100 Boeing planes [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The US dollar index decreased by 0.65%, closing at 97.808, as stock market strength reduced liquidity demand for the dollar [3] - Gold prices reached a five-week high, closing at $3397.09 per ounce, up 1.39% [3][7] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.48%, closing at $65.68 per barrel, while Brent crude oil decreased by 0.31%, closing at $68.38 per barrel [3][7] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - The US stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones slightly down by 0.04%, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.38% and the S&P 500 increased by 0.14% [4] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose by 0.68%, closing at 24994.14 points, with a peak of 25010.90 points, the highest since February 2022 [5] - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index increase by 0.72%, reaching a new high for the year, with a total trading volume of 1.7 trillion yuan [6] Group 3: Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, large technology and financial stocks drove the index higher, while sectors like wind power, steel, and non-ferrous metals showed significant gains [5] - In the A-share market, infrastructure, cement, and hydropower sectors experienced a collective surge, with several stocks hitting the daily limit [6]

欧盟外交官：欧盟正在探索对美国关税采取更广泛的潜在反制措施，欧盟仍然优先与美国通过谈判解决 问题。 ...

Group 1 - The European Union (EU) is preparing to retaliate against the United States' tariffs, with a new countermeasure list that includes a wide range of American products valued at €72 billion [5][6] - The EU's countermeasure list is detailed and spans 206 pages, including items such as Boeing aircraft, automobiles, and bourbon whiskey [5] - Despite the EU's ability to retaliate with other goods, it has refrained from including major U.S. military products in its countermeasure list due to its reliance on U.S. military supplies [6][8] Group 2 - Brazil is also considering a response to U.S. tariffs, with President Lula announcing the formation of a cross-departmental committee to strategize on trade negotiations and countermeasures [10][11] - The actions of the EU and Brazil indicate a growing resistance among countries against U.S. tariff policies, which could lead to a broader international backlash if successful [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the United States and the European Union, highlighting the imposition of tariffs and the potential for retaliatory measures. Group 1: Tariff Announcements - The U.S. President announced a 30% tariff on EU imports starting August 1 [1] - The EU is prepared to impose additional tariffs on $84 billion worth of U.S. products if trade negotiations fail [1] Group 2: EU Retaliatory Measures - The EU's retaliatory list includes high-value items such as airplanes and chemicals, as well as products like whiskey and nails [2] - The EU previously considered a 50% tariff on bourbon whiskey from Kentucky, prompting a potential 200% tariff from the U.S. on EU alcoholic products [2] Group 3: EU's Stance and Negotiations - German Chancellor Merkel emphasized that the U.S. should not underestimate the EU's willingness to respond with tariffs [3][4] - The EU is currently exercising restraint in its retaliatory measures, aiming for a swift resolution to the tariff dispute [4] - Ongoing discussions between EU trade representatives and U.S. officials indicate a desire for a favorable outcome in the tariff standoff [4]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is prepared to impose additional tariffs on $720 billion worth of U.S. imports if trade negotiations fail, following the announcement of a 30% tariff on EU goods by U.S. President Trump [1][4]. Group 1: EU's Response to U.S. Tariffs - The EU's countermeasure list spans 206 pages and targets over €65 billion in industrial products, including aircraft (€11 billion), machinery (€9.4 billion), and automobiles (€8 billion) [2]. - Agricultural products account for approximately €6 billion, with fruits and vegetables (€2 billion) and alcoholic beverages (€1.2 billion) being the most affected [2]. - The initial list targeted €95 billion in U.S. goods but was reduced after consultations with businesses and member states [4]. Group 2: Trade Negotiations and Market Impact - EU officials express disappointment over the U.S. tariff announcement, which they believe disrupts ongoing negotiations that were close to reaching an agreement [4]. - The new tariffs have negatively impacted European stock markets, with analysts noting that the 30% tariff far exceeds initial expectations of a 10% tariff [4]. - If the 30% tariff is implemented, trade between the EU and the U.S. could become "nearly impossible" [4]. Group 3: EU's Strategic Alliances - The EU plans to strengthen ties with countries affected by U.S. tariffs, including Japan and Canada, and is seeking to expand cooperation in the Pacific region [1][8]. - The EU is also negotiating trade agreements with countries in the Southern Common Market and aims to establish global partnerships to counter U.S. pressure [8]. - There is a growing trend among countries, including Canada and Brazil, to seek independent trade paths and reduce reliance on the U.S. [8].

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) has prepared a second list of retaliatory tariffs against the United States, amounting to €72 billion (approximately $84 billion), in response to the ongoing trade negotiations and threats from the Trump administration [1][2]. Summary by Sections Trade Negotiations - The EU is facing "huge differences" in trade negotiations with the US, particularly after President Trump threatened to impose a 30% tariff on EU goods [2][3]. - The EU's initial list targeted $95 billion worth of US goods but was reduced after consultations with businesses and member states [2]. Retaliatory Measures - The EU's retaliatory measures include tariffs on industrial products, with over €65 billion of the €72 billion list consisting of industrial goods such as aircraft (€11 billion), machinery (€9.4 billion), and automobiles (€8 billion) [10][11]. - The EU is also considering measures against the US service sector and utilizing the strongest tools available, including anti-coercion measures [11]. Economic Impact - The proposed 30% tariff would significantly impact transatlantic trade relations, making it nearly impossible to maintain the current trade structure [5][10]. - Experts believe that the EU's negotiation stance has shifted from zero tariffs to accepting a 10% general tariff, indicating a significant concession [5][10]. Broader Trade Context - The EU is seeking to strengthen trade relations with like-minded partners and is considering cooperation with CPTPP members as part of its strategy to counter US tariffs [12]. - The World Bank has noted that by December 2024, the CPTPP will include countries that account for about 15% of global GDP, highlighting the EU's interest in engaging with both developed and emerging markets [12].

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) has prepared a second list of retaliatory tariffs against the United States, potentially affecting $84 billion worth of American imports, amid significant trade negotiation tensions between the two parties [1][3]. Summary by Sections EU's Retaliatory Measures - The EU has identified a second list of retaliatory tariffs targeting $84 billion worth of U.S. imports, including Boeing aircraft, automobiles, and bourbon whiskey [1][5]. - The initial list aimed at $95 billion worth of U.S. goods was reduced after consultations with businesses and EU member states [1][5]. - The EU's response is a direct reaction to U.S. President Trump's threat to impose a 30% tariff on EU goods, which has created a significant divide in trade negotiations [3][4]. Negotiation Dynamics - The EU's trade commissioner, Valdis Dombrovskis, indicated that while there is a close agreement on the trade agreement text, substantial differences remain in certain areas [3][4]. - Trump's strategy of increasing tariffs is seen as a way to gain leverage in negotiations, although it has shocked EU officials [3][4]. Impact on Trade Relations - The proposed 30% tariff would drastically alter the transatlantic trade relationship, making it nearly impossible to maintain the current trade dynamics [3][4]. - Experts believe that the EU's acceptance of a 10% tariff as a baseline was already a significant concession, and the 30% threat is unacceptable [4][8]. Composition of the Retaliatory List - The retaliatory list includes over €65 billion worth of industrial goods, with significant items being aircraft (€11 billion), machinery (€9.4 billion), and automobiles (€8 billion) [8]. - Agricultural products affected exceed €6 billion, primarily fruits and vegetables (€2 billion) and alcoholic beverages (€1.2 billion) [8]. Broader Trade Strategy - The EU is considering all possible measures to protect its economy, including potential actions against the U.S. service sector and the use of coercive measures [8][9]. - The EU is also looking to strengthen trade relations with like-minded partners and is interested in enhancing cooperation with CPTPP members [9][10].