在华尔街与高盛持相似观点的同行并非少数。CNBC网站14日报道称，尽管投资者对周二相对温和的消 费者价格指数报告表示欢迎，但经济学家预计通胀的最大影响尚未显现。摩根大通经济学家费罗利表 示："关税可能会使美国GDP增速下降1%，并使通胀上升1%—1.5%，且部分影响已经显现。鉴于今年 关税涨幅远超美国战后以来的任何时期，其对消费者价格的传导程度仍存在很大不确定性。"瑞银高级 经济学家罗斯也说："我们预计，随着企业将更高成本转嫁给消费者，通胀将继续呈逐步上升趋 势。"（倪浩） 高盛经济学家大卫·梅里克周三在接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）采访时表示，不管特朗普是 否有异议，高盛对研究结论充满信心，"我们坚持这份研究结果，"梅里克说，"如果最近的关税与2月份 最早加征的关税呈现相同模式，那么到秋季时，我们估计消费者将承担大约三分之二的成本。" 此前特朗普坚称关税正带来数万亿美元收入，辩称支付大部分账单的是外国企业和政府而非美国家庭。 周二他指责高盛在市场影响和关税效应方面始终判断错误。 【环球时报综合报道】据美国《财富》杂志13日报道，面对美国总统特朗普的公开声讨，华尔街投行高 盛经济学家当地时间周三在回 ...

Core Insights - Major international automakers are facing significant profit declines in the first half of 2025, with only Toyota, Volkswagen, and Hyundai expected to exceed $5 billion in net profit [1] - Several automakers, including Stellantis, Nissan, Renault, Ford, and Volvo, reported losses in the second quarter or first half of the year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Volkswagen Group's revenue for the first half of 2025 was €158.4 billion, remaining stable year-on-year, but operating profit fell by approximately 33% to €6.7 billion, with net profit down over 38% to €4.477 billion [2] - Mercedes-Benz reported second-quarter revenue of €33.153 billion, a decline of 9.8% from €36.743 billion the previous year, with net profit dropping 68.7% to €0.957 billion [2] - BMW's revenue decreased by 8% to €67.685 billion, with net profit down 29% to €4.015 billion, although the company maintained its full-year financial outlook [3] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs and Costs - The increase in U.S. tariffs on electric vehicles and components has significantly impacted Volkswagen's profits, with an estimated loss of €1.3 billion due to tariff adjustments [2][4] - Ford reported tariff costs of $800 million in the second quarter, while General Motors faced $1.1 billion in tariff expenses [4] - Tesla indicated that tariffs have added $200 million in costs, with high tariffs on raw materials like steel and aluminum further increasing production costs for U.S. automakers [5]

Core Viewpoint - John Deere is facing significant financial challenges due to rising tariff costs, which are projected to reach $600 million for fiscal 2025, impacting net income and sales performance [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the fiscal third quarter, John Deere reported a net income of $1.29 billion, a decrease of 26% from $1.73 billion in the same period last year [3]. - Total net sales for the quarter were $12.02 billion, down 9% from $13.15 billion year-over-year [3]. - Earnings per share were reported at $4.75, exceeding expectations of $4.63 [5]. - Revenue for the quarter was $10.36 billion, slightly above the expected $10.31 billion [5]. Tariff Impact - The company incurred approximately $200 million in tariff costs during the third quarter, bringing the year-to-date total to around $300 million [3]. - The forecast for the pre-tax impact of tariffs in fiscal 2025 has been adjusted to nearly $600 million [3]. Outlook - John Deere has revised its net income outlook for the fiscal year to a range of $4.75 billion to $5.25 billion, down from a previous estimate of $4.75 billion to $5.5 billion [4]. - CEO John May emphasized the company's commitment to addressing current customer needs while preparing for future growth despite near-term uncertainties [4].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs released a report indicating that U.S. consumers bore 22% of the tariff costs from April to June 2023, and this figure is projected to rise to 67% by October if current tariff policies remain unchanged [1][2] - The report contradicts President Trump's assertion that other countries bear the brunt of the tariffs, leading to a public dispute between Trump and Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon [1] - Other financial institutions have echoed concerns about rising prices due to tariffs, with the U.S. Consumer Price Index increasing by 0.2% in July and an annual inflation rate of 2.7% reported [2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the inflation rate in the U.S. could reach 3.2% by the end of the year, while it would have been 2.4% without the impact of tariffs [2] - Oxford Economics predicts an even higher inflation rate of 3.8% by year-end, highlighting the broader economic implications of the current tariff policies [2]

2025.08.13 本文字数：915，阅读时长大约1.5分钟 作者 |第一财经 胡弋杰 特朗普称，关税为美国带来数万亿美元收入，并未引发通胀或对经济造成其他损害，"主要是由企业和 政府——其中很多是外国政府——在买单"。他批评高盛未能承认这一事实，认为该行早前关于市场反 应和关税效应的判断"完全错误"。 当地时间8月12日，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，7月消费者价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，符合 预期，较6月的0.3%有所放缓；同比涨幅2.7%，与上月持平。剔除食品与能源的核心CPI环比升0.3%， 创1月以来最大涨幅，同比升至3.1%，高于6月的2.9%。 因7月通胀数据强化投资者对美联储下月降息的押注，标普500指数和纳指双双创下收盘纪录新高。 高盛首席经济学家简·哈祖斯（Jan Hatzius）及其团队近期发布的报告估算，截至6月，美国企业承担了 64%的关税成本，消费者承担了22%的关税，而外国出口商通过降低出口价格，承担了14%的关税。高 盛警告，这些数字将发生显著变化，到10月，美国消费者将承担三分之二的成本增长，而外国企业为 25%，美国公司为8%。 当地时间8月12日，美国总统特朗普 ...

Group 1: Impact of US Tariffs on Domestic Companies - The US tariff policy is negatively affecting the profitability of domestic retail companies, with Crocs expecting a revenue decline in Q3 despite analyst predictions of growth [2] - Crocs anticipates an additional cost of $40 million due to tariffs in the second half of the year, potentially reaching $90 million for the entire year, equivalent to approximately 647 million RMB [2] - Following this news, Crocs' stock price plummeted nearly 30%, marking its largest single-day drop in 14 years [2] Group 2: Effects on Other Brands - Deckers, which owns brands like UGG and Hoka, is also facing tariff pressures, with US sales growth slowing from approximately 11% to 2.8% [3] - Deckers has chosen to absorb some of the tariff costs rather than passing them entirely to consumers, which may stabilize market share but compress profit margins [3][4] - Puma's stock fell 18.4% after it downgraded its 2025 fiscal year guidance, citing the new US tariffs as a significant factor leading to an expected gross profit loss of approximately €80 million [6] - Adidas anticipates an additional cost of up to €200 million (approximately 157 million RMB) due to tariffs in the remaining part of the year, with uncertainty about the impact on consumer demand [7] - Companies like Nike and Uniqlo's parent company Fast Retailing are considering price increases in response to tariff impacts, indicating a trend among brands to adjust pricing strategies [7]

卡特彼勒表示，预计今年将面临约13亿美元至15亿美元的净新增关税成本，其中本季度将面临高达5亿 美元的关税成本。考虑到关税的影响，这家机械制造商目前预计全年调整后的营业利润率将处于年度指 引区间的下半部分。 卡特彼勒首席执行官Joe Creed在声明中表示："得益于基础设施建设支出以及能源需求的不断增长，我 们各业务板块的订单量依然强劲，需求保持稳定。"Creed于五月接替Jim Umpleby出任首席执行官。 截至发稿，卡特彼勒盘前涨0.6%。该股今年以来累计上涨21%。 智通财经APP获悉，周二美股盘前，卡特彼勒(CAT.US)公布低于预期的第二季度利润，原因是关税成本 以及产品价格略微下降侵蚀了其标志性产品黄色挖掘机和推土机的利润率。 财报显示，卡特彼勒第二季度营收为166亿美元，同比下降1%，但好于市场预期;调整后每股收益为4.72 美元，低于上年同期的5.99美元，也低于市场预期的4.88美元。 财报表明，美国贸易政策对卡特彼勒所服务的行业产生了持续的影响。关税推高了卡特彼勒的生产成 本，损害了利润，尽管销售额相对保持稳定。第二季度关税带来的净影响达到了该公司4月份披露的2.5 亿至3.5亿美元预估 ...

Group 1 - Diageo reported preliminary results for the fiscal year 2025, with sales of $20.245 billion, slightly down 0.1% year-on-year, but better than the market expectation of $20 billion [1] - Organic sales grew by 1.7% year-on-year, surpassing the analyst consensus of 1.4% [1] - Operating profit fell by 27.8% to $4.335 billion, with an operating margin decline of 819 basis points to 21.4% [1] Group 2 - Diageo expects organic sales growth for fiscal year 2026 to be similar to that of fiscal year 2025, with operating profit anticipated to achieve mid-single-digit organic growth [1] - The company faces economic uncertainty and consumer inflation concerns due to tariffs imposed by former President Trump, with annual tariff costs now estimated at $200 million, up from a previous estimate of $150 million [1] - Diageo's interim CEO, Nik Jhangiani, announced an increase in the cost-saving target from $500 million to $625 million over the next three years [1] Group 3 - Nik Jhangiani took over as interim CEO after the departure of Debra Crew and indicated that the board may decide on a new CEO by the end of October [2] - Despite a challenging consumer environment, including preferences for non-alcoholic beverages and ready-to-drink cocktails, consumers, including Gen Z, continue to spend [2] - Analyst Ed Mundy from Jefferies noted that Diageo's sales growth target for fiscal year 2026 is in line with market expectations, and the company has maintained or grown market share in 65% of monitored markets, including the U.S. [2]

Financial Performance - In Q2 of FY2025, the company reported total revenue of $94.04 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, marking the largest quarterly revenue growth since December 2021 [1][3] - Net profit for the same period was $23.43 billion, reflecting a 9% year-over-year growth [1] - Service revenue reached a record $27.42 billion, up from $24.21 billion a year ago, indicating a 13.2% increase [4][5] Market Performance - The Greater China region showed a revenue of $15.37 billion, a 4.4% increase, reversing previous declines of 2% and 11% in the prior two quarters [3] - iPhone revenue was $44.58 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $40.22 billion, and grew 13.5% from $39.3 billion year-over-year [3] - Mac revenue reached $8.05 billion, surpassing expectations of $7.26 billion, and grew nearly 15% from $7.01 billion year-over-year [3] Challenges in Product Lines - iPad revenue was $6.58 billion, below expectations of $7.24 billion, and down 8% from $7.16 billion year-over-year [4] - Wearables, home, and accessories revenue was $7.4 billion, also below expectations of $7.82 billion, and down 8.64% from $8.1 billion year-over-year [4] AI Strategy and Investment - The company is significantly increasing its investment in AI, viewing it as one of the most profound technologies of the generation [2][6] - In 2025, the company acquired approximately seven small tech firms to accelerate its AI roadmap, although the financial details were not disclosed [6] - Capital expenditure for Q2 was $3.46 billion, up from $2.15 billion year-over-year, primarily driven by AI-related investments [6] Competitive Positioning - The company is perceived to be lagging behind competitors like Google and Microsoft in AI commercialization, with some analysts suggesting a delay of over two years in generative AI technology [2][6] - The company’s AI strategy emphasizes privacy and on-device computing, contrasting with the cloud-centric approaches of its competitors [8] Talent Acquisition and Retention - The company has faced challenges in retaining top AI talent, with key personnel leaving for competitors like Meta [7] - The company’s CFO indicated that while capital expenditures are expected to increase, they will not grow exponentially, suggesting a cautious approach to AI investment [7]

自今年 4 月美国调整关税政策以来，有各种小道消息称苹果公司为应对额外成本，会提高 iPhone 产品售价，顶配机型一度传言会飙升到 2300 美元。 库克在电话会议中表示，消费者担忧关税可能导致的产品价格大幅上涨，选择在关税实施前抢购，这一情绪推动了 2025 财年第 3 财季苹果设备的销售增 长。 IT之家 8 月 1 日消息，科技媒体 MacRumors 今天（8 月 1 日）发布博文，报道称在 2025 财年第 3 财季（截至 6 月 28 日）财报电话会议上，苹果公司首席 执行官蒂姆・库克（Tim Cook）回应称，大约有 10% 的销售增长，可以归因于客户为规避关税而提前购买产品。 库克还表示第 3 财季苹果公司承担了 8 亿美元（IT之家注：现汇率约合 57.62 亿元人民币）的关税额外成本，如果现有关税保持不变，且不再新增关税，预 计第 4 财季中，苹果将面临 11 亿美元（现汇率约合 79.23 亿元人民币）的关税费用。 ...