格隆汇2月25日｜香港财政司司长陈茂波发表新一份《财政预算案》称，环球政经环境复杂多变，美国 去年初发动关税战，全球贸易磨擦急剧升温。随着美国与多个经济体达成初步贸易协议，并与中国在重 要经贸议题取得共识，贸易紧张局势有所缓和，全球经济得以继续扩张。陈茂波又指，股票市场表现亮 丽，恒生指数全年上升28%，平均每日成交额增加九成至近2500亿元，创下历史新高。新股上市集资额 较2024年增加两倍多至超过2800亿元，高踞全球第一。 ...

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年02月24日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 金银市场结束盘整，突破上行，铜跟随上涨，较节前价格微升。但 铜作为顺周期资产，关税担忧的重燃一定程度限制其上涨空间，金 铜比再度上升。美国2025年四季度以及2025年全球经济增速低于 预期，但通胀和核心通胀高于预期，对铜价影响偏中性。美国 ...

2025年的这场贸易风暴，比所有人想象的都要猛烈。美国人祭出了"万亿级"的关税大棒，试图把中国制造逼出全球市场。结果呢？ 一张来自中国海关的成绩单，狠狠甩在了白宫的办公桌上：1.076万亿美元。这是2025年前11个月中国的贸易顺差，一个前所未有的历史纪录。 为什么美国举国之力筑起的关税高墙，防不住中国制造的洪水？答案不在高精尖的芯片里，而藏在湖南一个小县城生产的、售价仅为1块钱的打火机里。 这只不起眼的小玩意，就是中国产业链最硬的骨头。它用无可匹敌的极致效率证明了一个真理：在绝对的工业能力面前，关税不过是一张废纸。 一只打火机的"极致统治力" 把目光聚焦到湖南邵东。这里没有高耸入云的金融大厦，只有日夜轰鸣的流水线。在东亿电气的车间里，每分钟有数百只打火机下线。 注塑、焊接、充气、验火，全自动化一气呵成。这只售价仅1块钱的塑料小物件，被这家企业做到了年产36亿只。 这是什么概念？这家位于中国内陆县城的企业，独自吞下了全球22%的市场份额。 美国人想用关税封杀它？东亿副总经理白家宝指着排期表笑了："订单早就排到了10月。" 在国际贸易壁垒加剧、地缘政治风险升温的2025年，这家企业的出口额不降反升，一季度逆势增 ...

当特朗普的关税武器让美国最高法院"缴械"时，中国、巴西反而从与美国关税战最大的受害者，变成了"最大的赢家"？ 这到底是怎么一回事呢？ 据悉，就在当地时间2月20日，美国最高法院，以6比3的投票结果作出了最终裁决：特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权 力法》征收的大规模关税违宪！ 美国最高法院的裁决结果就好像平地一声惊雷，让特朗普此前征收的、总额可能超过1750亿美元的关税瞬间失去了法律 依据，这也让超过1500家的企业对其提出了诉讼，要求特朗普政府退还已缴纳的税款。 然而，要知道的是，关税大棒一向是特朗普赖以为继的手段，这种屡试不爽且兵不血刃的方式他是不会放弃的。 果不其然，就在美最高法院裁决结果公布的当天，特朗普随即就宣布启用《1974年贸易法》中的第122条，对全球商品 加征10%的进口关税，并在之后的24小时之内，将10%的关税提高到15%。 同时，声明中还提到，"我们也注意到，美方正在准备采取贸易调查等替代措施，以便维持对贸易伙伴加征的关税，中 方将密切关注并坚定维护中方利益"。 言外之意便是，不管特朗普政府有什么样的招，我们都随时奉陪，而这样子的对等反制，相信他们也不会愿意看到。 值得一提的是，英国《金融 ...

美国最高法院的一纸判决，打乱了特朗普的布局，欧洲，印度，巴西都开始对之前签署的贸易协议蠢蠢 欲动，就在昨天中国也做出了回应，正在评估美国最高等法院的关税裁定所造成的影响，同时也关注特 朗普又向全球加征的15%替代关税，并且再次强调关税战没有赢家，保护主义没有出路。 随着多国的集体反对，让特朗普深深地感受到危机感，在社交平台发长文写道：任何国家，尤其是这些 年来一直在剥削美国的国家，如果利用美国最高法院的裁决耍花招，就不要怪他到时间，他们将会面临 着更高的关税，同时还用三个感叹号点缀，以证明该事情的严重性。 3、美众议院院长邀请黎智英的女儿参加特朗普的国情咨询演讲，旨在向外界强调，美国决心确保黎智 英获释。 4、高市也不安分，召集了14个太平洋岛国准备在东京秘密开会，讨论地区安全和军事合作。 对于美国的三个小动作，中国出其不意将板子打到了日本人的头上，在春节假期结束的第一天，中国管 制了20家日本军工企业，从源头遏制日本军工链条，在关键部位卡住他们的脖子，防止日本军国主义进 程。 不过让他怎么也没有想到的是，在他发声之后，美国三大股指暴跌，多家科技企业更是深受这次股市暴 跌的冲击，一夜之间蒸发了数千亿美元。经济 ...

白宫刚刚确认特朗普的访华行程，紧接着，美国最高法院裁定他的关税政策非法。这对长期饱受关税压迫的全球各国来说，简直是天大的好消息。然而，对 于特朗普及其支持者而言，无疑是一记重重的打击。美国媒体分析指出，这一裁决削弱了特朗普与中方谈判时的筹码，可能会在短期内对在华的美国出口商 带来一些利好，也给本就复杂的中美关系增添了新的不确定性。 有美国智库专家认为，这一裁决会在峰会前给予中国士气上的提升，但北京会保持谨慎态度，因为特朗普政府可能很快就会推出其他征税的B计划，比如通 过贸易法调查中国是否履行了此前的协议。此外，双方此刻都在竭力维持脆弱的贸易停火，避免进一步刺激矛盾，为这场即将到来的外交盛事营造良好氛 围，因此没有必要在此时引发新的争议。事实上，关税这个筹码对中方的威慑力，早已随着关税战的深入而大打折扣。当一方亮出所谓的王牌，而对方早已 准备好足以应对的手段时，这张牌的光环和威慑力便不再显得那么强大了。关税战打到今天，它的真面目已经暴露无遗——它本质上是一种自伤行为，极大 地毒化了两国关系。如果没有最高法院的这一裁决，特朗普或许依然会带着关税大棒来北京，与中方进行强硬对抗，但最终能否取得决定性成果，依然值得 怀 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 24 日 黄金：假期间震荡上行 白银：关注节后高开 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2602 | 1,126.12 | -0.38% | 1100.96 | -2.42% | | | 黄金T+D | 1,122.92 | -0.14% | 1096.99 | -2.49% | | | Comex黄金2602 | 4941.40 | -3.26% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 4921.11 | -3.22% | - | - | | | 沪银2602 | 20626 | -1.57% | 19188.00 | -8.35% | | 价 格 | 白银T+D | 19670 | -1.19% | 18201 | -8.62% | | | Comex白银2602 | 75.010 | -10.79% | - | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Uncertainty increases, price fluctuates [2][4] - Zinc: Rangeside fluctuation [2][7] - Lead: Weak supply and demand, rangeside fluctuation [2][10] - Tin: Pay attention to the impact of tariffs [2][12] - Aluminum: Post - holiday trend is relatively strong; Alumina: Rangeside fluctuation; Cast aluminum alloy: Follows electrolytic aluminum [2][16] - Platinum: Boosted by the strengthening of silver [2][19] - Palladium: Tariff disturbances resurface, fluctuating with an upward bias [2][20] - Nickel: Speculative sentiment in Shanghai nickel still exists, continuously focus on nickel ore contradictions; Stainless steel: Cost support center moves up, off - season inventory accumulation restricts elasticity [2][24] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 100,380, down 1.91%; the closing price of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 12,901, up 0.35%. Trading volume and positions of Shanghai copper and LME copper changed, and inventory and spreads also had corresponding changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: AI concerns intensify, tariff war risks resurface, and US stocks decline. The US Customs will stop collecting illegal tariffs, and the European Parliament suspends the approval of the EU - US trade agreement. Harmony Gold's new Australian copper mine needs two - year transformation. China promotes central enterprises to invest in computing power. Codelco's copper production increased in December 2025, and there was a global refined copper supply surplus in December 2025 [4][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [6] Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 24,250, down 1.70%; the closing price of the LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 3,378, up 0.91%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, premiums, and inventory [7]. - **News**: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce urges the US to cancel unilateral tariff measures. Wall Street analyzes that tariffs may be lowered in the second half of the year [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [9] Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,700, unchanged; the closing price of the LME lead 3M electronic disk was 1,966.5, up 0.69%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, premiums, and inventory [10]. - **News**: Similar to copper, AI concerns and tariff war risks affect the market, and the US stops collecting illegal tariffs [10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [10] Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 365,400, down 7.05%; the closing price of the LME tin 3M electronic disk was 47,370, up 1.35%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and prices [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump mentions higher tariffs, the EU may suspend the US - EU trade agreement, the German Chancellor visits China, and the Fed official mentions AI - related job cuts [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [14] Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: There were detailed data changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, premiums, and inventory of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy [16]. - **Comprehensive News**: US Democrats oppose tariff extension and advocate for refund. Trump may attack Iran. [18] - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum: 1; Alumina: 0; Cast aluminum alloy: 1 [18] Platinum and Palladium - **Fundamental Data**: There were price changes in platinum and palladium futures and spot prices, as well as changes in trading volume, positions, and spreads [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump will visit China, the EU suspends the US - EU trade agreement, there are US economic data, and there are developments in US - Iran relations. Hong Kong aims to be an international gold trading center, etc. [23] - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum: 0; Palladium: 0 [22] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: There were data changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, and related prices of nickel and stainless steel futures, as well as changes in the prices and spreads of products in the industrial chain [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia restricts new smelting licenses, revises the nickel ore benchmark price formula, and there are issues such as corporate violations, port monopolies, and mine restarts [24][25][26]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel: 0; Stainless steel: 0 [29]

2026年02月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 铜：不确定性增强，价格震荡 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 锌：区间震荡 | 5 | | 铅：供需双弱，区间震荡 | 7 | | 锡：关注关税影响 | 8 | | 铝：节后风偏偏强 | 9 | | 氧化铝：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 9 | | 铂：受白银走强提振 | 11 | | 钯：关税扰动再起，震荡偏强 | 11 | | 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 | 13 | | 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：供需偏紧，盘面具备底部支撑 | 15 | | 工业硅：关注上游工厂复产节奏 | 17 | | 多晶硅：硅片价格下跌 | 17 | | 铁矿石：需求预期转弱，震荡下行 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：节前交易情绪转弱，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：节前交易情绪转弱，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 原木：低到港低库存，震荡偏强 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The uncertainty of copper has increased, and the price is fluctuating [1] - The trend strength of copper is 0, indicating a neutral view [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 100,380 with a daily decline of 1.91%, and the closing price of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 12,901 with a daily increase of 0.35%. The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index was 317,735, an increase of 74,706 from the previous day, and the position was 553,829, a decrease of 6,837. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 11,678, a decrease of 10,436, and the position was 318,000, a decrease of 4,000 [1] - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai copper was 196,680, an increase of 9,501 from the previous day, and the inventory of LME copper was 235,150, an increase of 38,500. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME copper was 4.37%, a decrease of 6.64% [1] - **Spread Data**: The LME copper premium was -83.05, an increase of 11.66 from the previous day. The bonded warehouse receipt premium was 33, a decrease of 1, and the bonded bill of lading premium was 35, a decrease of 2. The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper was 88,600, a decrease of 1,300. The spot - futures near - month spread was 0, an increase of 60; the near - month contract to the first - continuous contract spread was -510, a decrease of 150; the cost of the inter - period arbitrage of buying the near - month and selling the first - continuous contract was 227. The spread between Shanghai copper spot and LME cash was -509, an increase of 466; the spread between Shanghai copper continuous - three contract and LME 3M was -107, an increase of 583; the spread between Shanghai copper spot and Shanghai 1 recycled copper was 3,037, a decrease of 61; the import profit and loss of recycled copper was 655, an increase of 23 [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: Concerns about AI have intensified, and the risk of a tariff war has reignited. The three major US stock indexes closed down by at least about 1%. The US Customs will stop collecting tariffs ruled illegal by the Supreme Court from February 24. The US Democratic Party will prevent any attempt to extend tariffs and promote a mandatory refund plan. The European Parliament has suspended the approval of the EU - US trade agreement [1][3] - **Industry News**: Harmony Gold Company said that the newly acquired Australian copper mine needs two years for transformation. Chilean state - owned miner Codelco's copper production in December 2025 increased by 3.7% year - on - year to 181,400 tons. In December 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.2506 million tons, the consumption was 2.1526 million tons, and the supply surplus was 98,000 tons [1][3]