农产品日报 | 2025-11-13 市场观望为主，豆粕窄幅震荡 粕类观点 近期市场资讯，11月11日，巴西全国谷物出口商协会表示，巴西11月大豆出口量料为426万吨，上周预测为377万 吨。巴西11月豆粕出口量料为247万吨，上周预测为223万吨。 市场分析 当前整体供需格局并未改变，下游油厂开机率偏高，但大豆及豆粕库存仍维持高位，下游需求方面多以滚动补库 为主，整体仍处于供应宽松格局。综合来看，未来仍需重点关注大豆进口情况，新季南美大豆的天气情况以及政 策端的变化情况。 策略 谨慎偏空 风险 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3059元/吨，较前日变动+5元/吨，幅度+0.16%；菜粕2601合约2494元/吨，较前 日变动-6元/吨，幅度-0.24%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3050元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M01-9， 较前日变动-5；江苏地区豆粕现货3000元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M01-59，较前日变动-5；广东地区豆 粕现货价格3000元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M01-59，较前日变动-5。福建地区菜粕现货价格2680元/ 吨，较 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [2][4][8] Group 2: Report Core Views - The global cotton market's supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose in the new year, with short - term external market pressure and long - term focus on US cotton production and export. The domestic cotton market has low initial inventory but new supply. Short - term cotton price increase is limited, while long - term is optimistic [2] - The global sugar market may be in a bear cycle in the 25/26 season. Brazilian sugar supply is strong in the short - term, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures have limited upward and downward space in the short - term [4][5] - The pulp market has a supply - demand imbalance. Supply remains loose, and demand is weak. Pulp prices are expected to continue low - level fluctuations [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,620 yuan/ton yesterday, up 55 yuan/ton (+0.41%) from the previous day. Spot: Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,650 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton; national average price was 14,840 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In September, Bangladesh imported about 152,000 tons of cotton, a 14.4% increase from August and 5.9% from the previous year [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global cotton market's supply - demand is expected to be loose, with short - term external market pressure due to supply and demand issues. Domestically, old - season cotton inventory is low, but new supply is increasing. Short - term cotton price increase is limited by hedging and weak demand, while long - term is affected by low initial inventory and consumption resilience [2] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term, there is a possibility of a callback; long - term, cotton prices are optimistic [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5494 yuan/ton yesterday, up 11 yuan/ton (+0.20%) from the previous day. Spot: Guangxi Nanning sugar price was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yunnan Kunming price was 5720 yuan/ton, unchanged. It is estimated that in mid - October in Brazil's central - southern region, sugarcane crushing will be 33.42 million tons (down 1.5% year - on - year), sugar production 2.47 million tons (up 0.6% year - on - year), and ethanol production 1.973 billion liters (down 3.1% year - on - year) [3] Market Analysis - The Brazilian sugar supply is strong in the short - term, and the global sugar market may be in a bear cycle. The Zhengzhou sugar futures have limited upward and downward space in the short - term due to sufficient domestic supply and weak external market [4][5] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term, follow the weak external market; pay attention to the support at around 5400 [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: Pulp 2601 contract closed at 5242 yuan/ton yesterday, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.31%) from the previous day. Spot: Shandong's Chilean silver star coniferous pulp price was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged; Russian needle pulp price was 4985 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. Imported wood pulp spot prices were mostly stable with some fluctuations [5][6] Market Analysis - The pulp market's supply remains loose, and demand is weak both at home and abroad. The traditional peak season has not seen strong demand [7] Strategy - Neutral. Pulp prices are expected to continue low - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the actual demand in the fourth - quarter peak season [8]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] 2) Core Views - **Cotton**: The global cotton market supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose in the new year, with short - term external markets under pressure. In China, although the old - season cotton inventory is low, the new cotton supply is increasing. The short - term upward space for cotton prices is limited, but the medium - to - long - term outlook is relatively optimistic [2] - **Sugar**: The global sugar market in the 25/26 season may be in a bear cycle, with the raw sugar price hitting a new low. The short - term rebound space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited, but the downward space is also restricted [4][5] - **Pulp**: The pulp supply remains loose, and the demand is weak. The pulp price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [7][8] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - **Market News and Key Data**: On the futures side, the cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,565 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (+0.18%) from the previous day. On the spot side, the Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,690 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,833 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. From October 17 - 23, 2025, the US graded and inspected 153,500 tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, with 77.6% meeting the ICE cotton futures delivery requirements [1] - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, due to the delay of key data release and the expected loose supply - demand pattern, the short - term external market is under pressure. In China, the old - season cotton inventory is low, but the new cotton supply is increasing. The short - term upward space for cotton prices is limited, and the medium - to - long - term depends on the implementation of the US cotton production reduction and export goals [2] - **Strategy**: Neutral. There is a high hedging pressure on the short - term disk, and there is a possibility of a callback. In the medium - to - long - term, the cotton price outlook is relatively optimistic [2] Sugar - **Market News and Key Data**: On the futures side, the sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,445 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.02%) from the previous day. In Guangxi Nanning, the spot price was 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Yunnan Kunming, it was 5,725 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. In September 2025, China's refined sugar production was 539,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.4%, and from January - September, it was 10.984 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [3] - **Market Analysis**: The raw sugar price hit a new low due to the strong supply from Brazil and the expected global sugar surplus. The short - term rebound space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited, but the downward space is also restricted as the import intensity is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter [4][5] - **Strategy**: Neutral. There is no obvious short - term driver, and Zhengzhou sugar may follow the weak trend of the external market. Attention should be paid to whether it can form a phased support around 5,400 [5] Pulp - **Market News and Key Data**: On the futures side, the pulp 2601 contract closed at 5,258 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+0.34%) from the previous day. In Shandong, the spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp was 5,500 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,990 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - **Market Analysis**: The supply of pulp remains loose, with the overseas production reduction plan having limited impact. The demand is weak, with low paper mill operating rates and over - capacity in the paper industry. The downstream paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious [7] - **Strategy**: Neutral. The pulp price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][8] Core Viewpoints - The global cotton supply - demand pattern has shifted from loose to tight, with short - term support for domestic cotton prices but potential pressure during new flower listing. Sugar prices are facing short - term downward pressure but limited downside due to low domestic inventory. Pulp prices are expected to continue low - level oscillations due to weak fundamentals [2][5][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,855 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (+0.14%). The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,210 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,286 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan/ton [1] - Floods in Pakistan's Punjab province damaged about 35% of cotton crops, with 40 - 50% damage in the largest producing area, Bahawalnagar [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, India's extended tariff exemption supports US cotton. The USDA's August report tightened the global cotton supply - demand pattern, but some production adjustments may be incomplete. US cotton's upside is limited by slow export sales. Domestically, cotton de - stocking is fast, commercial inventory is low, and short - term price support is strong. New - year production increase expectations are high, but there may be early - stage grabbing and later - stage hedging pressure [2] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Short - term support for Zhengzhou cotton is strong before new flower listing, but there may be pressure during the new flower concentration period [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,535 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (+0.31%). The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,880 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,835 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [3] - Inner Mongolia's first sugar factory is expected to start production on September 8, 4 days earlier than last year, with an estimated output of 70 - 750,000 tons [3] Market Analysis - ICE raw sugar is under pressure due to production increases in Brazil and the Northern Hemisphere. Zhengzhou sugar has been weak due to abundant short - term supply from imports and concerns about syrup policy relaxation [5] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Domestic sugar prices may bottom - consolidate due to low inventory [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the pulp 2511 contract closed at 4,996 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton (+0.52%). The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,690 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,090 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - The imported wood pulp spot market was generally stable, with only sporadic price drops [6] Market Analysis - Overseas pulp mill production cuts have not significantly changed the supply pattern. Domestic pulp production capacity is increasing, but high port inventory maintains supply pressure. Demand is weak both overseas and domestically, with low terminal demand and low paper mill operating rates [7] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Pulp prices are expected to continue low - level oscillations due to weak fundamentals [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three major commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][6][9] 2. Core Views - The global cotton supply - demand pattern has shifted from loose to tight according to USDA, but the lack of abnormal weather in major producing areas makes the market skeptical. In China, short - term supply tightness supports cotton prices, but weak downstream demand creates pressure. Mid - term, good new cotton growth may suppress prices [2] - For sugar, Brazilian data shows a trade - off between sugar production and other factors. In China, slow domestic sales, high import profits, and large imports are increasing domestic spot pressure. A possible new - season delay may lead to a price increase in the fourth quarter [5][6] - Regarding pulp, supply pressure remains high due to increased imports and domestic capacity. Weak demand both in Europe, the US, and China, along with low terminal demand and high inventory, means the market is likely to remain weak in the short - term [7][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Cotton 2601 futures closed at 14,030 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,038 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton. The national average price was 15,210 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1] - As of August 15, India's new - season cotton planting area was 10.8 million hectares, a 2.7% decrease from the previous year. In Mato Grosso, the picking progress was 40%, 17 percentage points behind the same period last year [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, USDA's reduction in global cotton production and ending stocks led to a short - term increase in US cotton prices, but the market is skeptical. Domestically, tight supply in the short - term supports prices, but weak downstream demand creates pressure. Mid - term, new cotton listing may suppress prices [2] Strategy - A neutral stance is recommended. Low inventory and the approaching textile peak season support prices, but policy regulation and long - term industry factors limit the upside [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Sugar 2601 futures closed at 5688 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton (+0.21%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5970 yuan/ton, unchanged. In Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5855 yuan/ton, also unchanged [4] - In July 2025, China's sugar - related imports totaled 7.43 tons, and the domestic refined sugar production in July was 41 tons, a 64.7% year - on - year increase [4] Market Analysis - Internationally, Brazilian sugar data shows a complex situation. In China, slow domestic sales, high import profits, and large imports are increasing domestic spot pressure [5][6] Strategy - A neutral stance is recommended. Short - term price is likely to fluctuate within a range due to supply pressure, but a possible new - season delay may lead to a price increase in the fourth quarter [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Pulp 2511 futures closed at 5130 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.12%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5800 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - Supply pressure remains high due to increased imports and domestic capacity. Weak demand both in Europe, the US, and China, along with low terminal demand and high inventory, means the market is likely to remain weak [7][8] Strategy - A neutral stance is recommended. With no significant improvement in the market fundamentals, short - term prices are likely to remain in a low - level oscillation [9]