Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: Global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season, and the bottom of import cost may have emerged, but upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybeans have high inventory, and soybean meal is expected to oscillate [2][4]. - **Palm Oil**: The over - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the palm oil market, but recent improvement in exports provides support. It is advisable to view it with an oscillatory perspective and turn bullish if production decline signals appear [6][8]. - **Sugar**: The market expects an increase in production in the northern hemisphere in the 2025/26 season, with limited upward space for raw sugar. It is recommended to wait for a rebound and then short [11][12]. - **Cotton**: After the peak season, demand is not too bad, and the previous price decline has digested the bearish impact of high yields. Cotton prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [15][16]. - **Eggs**: Before the spot price realizes seasonal increases, the futures market is expected to oscillate. In the medium - term, after the stocking period, focus on supply and wait for a rebound to short [17][18]. - **Pigs**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads [20][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Soybean and Soybean Meal** - **Market Information**: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans first fell and then rose, supported by Chinese purchases. Brazilian soybean premiums decreased slightly last week, and the cost of imported soybeans declined. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable over the weekend, and trading and pick - up were good last week. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.3173 million tons, slightly lower than last week's 2.3344 million tons. The feed enterprise inventory days decreased to 7.98 days last week [2]. - **Strategy**: Global soybean supply has decreased, and the bottom of import cost may have appeared. Domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, and soybean meal is expected to oscillate [4]. **Palm Oil** - **Market Information**: From November 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased compared to the previous month, and production showed a mixed trend. Domestic vegetable oil prices are expected to be weak. Last Friday, domestic palm oil prices fell, and the spot basis was stable [6]. - **Strategy**: Over - expected production suppresses the market, but improved exports provide support. It is advisable to view it with an oscillatory perspective and turn bullish if production decline signals appear [8]. **Sugar** - **Market Information**: On Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices oscillated and declined. The international sugar market is expected to have a surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 2025/26 season. China's sugar imports increased in 2025. India's sugar production increased significantly this year [10][11]. - **Strategy**: The market expects an increase in production in the northern hemisphere in the 2025/26 season, with limited upward space for raw sugar. It is recommended to wait for a rebound and then short [12]. **Cotton** - **Market Information**: On Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated narrowly. The global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase. China's cotton imports decreased in 2025, and the spinning mill's operating rate decreased slightly [14][15]. - **Strategy**: After the peak season, demand is not too bad, and the previous price decline has digested the bearish impact of high yields. Cotton prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [16]. **Eggs** - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable over the weekend, with some local increases. Supply pressure remains, but inventory pressure has eased after the temperature drop, and downstream replenishment willingness has increased [17]. - **Strategy**: Before the spot price realizes seasonal increases, the futures market is expected to oscillate. In the medium - term, after the stocking period, focus on supply and wait for a rebound to short [18]. **Pigs** - **Market Information**: Pig prices fluctuated over the weekend. Supply is normal, and terminal demand is limited, so pig prices are expected to be stable today with some local adjustments [20]. - **Strategy**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - Corn prices have started a short - term upward trend due to tightened supply in production areas and downstream replenishment demand, with farmers' selling intention being a key factor. In the long - term, the supply - demand situation is tight, and prices are expected to rise after the release of farmers' selling pressure [2] - Starch prices fluctuate with raw material prices in the short - term. High inventory suppresses prices, and downstream consumption rhythm is crucial for long - term price trends [3] - For sugar, short - term Zhengzhou sugar is more affected by import policies, with domestic sugar cost as support. In the long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, domestic sugar cost may be broken through. A high - short strategy is maintained, but the downward space is limited [4] - Cotton production is estimated to have decreased. The positive result of the Sino - US talks is beneficial for textile exports, making long - term long positions suitable [6] - Egg prices have a slightly upward - moving price center due to supply and demand factors. The acceleration of the elimination process will drive prices up [10] - Apple prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillations in the short - term as the national cold - storage inventory has decreased compared to last year [14] - Pig prices are in a weak and volatile situation in the short - term, with mid - term supply pressure remaining. Attention should be paid to factors such as the selling rhythm, diseases, policies, and capital sentiment [14] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Corn Price Data**: From 2025/11/14 to 2025/11/20, prices in different regions showed some changes. For example, the price in Changchun remained at 2070, while in other regions like Jinzhou, there were fluctuations. The basis changed from - 25 to 2, and the trade profit and import profit also changed [2] - **Starch Price Data**: During the same period, the price in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained at 2700 and 2800 respectively, with the basis changing from 150 to 232 and the processing profit changing from 9 to - 1 [2] Sugar - **Sugar Price Data**: From 2025/11/14 to 2025/11/20, the spot price in Kunming decreased by 45, and the Zhengzhou futures price decreased by 446 [4] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Cotton Price Data**: From 2025/11/14 to 2025/11/20, the 3128 cotton price increased by 20, and the import profit and other data also changed [6] - **Cotton Yarn Price Data**: The Vietnam yarn spot price remained stable, while the import profit decreased by 18, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 21 [6] Eggs - **Egg Price Data**: From 2025/11/14 to 2025/11/20, the prices in main production areas remained relatively stable, and the basis decreased by 61. The prices of substitute products such as broilers and pigs changed little [10] Apples - **Apple Price Data**: The spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8000 from 2025/11/14 to 2025/11/20. The national cold - storage inventory decreased, with Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu all having lower inventory levels than last year [14] Pigs - **Pig Price Data**: From 2025/11/14 to 2025/11/20, the prices in different production areas fluctuated slightly, and the basis increased by 70 [14]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is dated November 18, 2025, and is from the Agricultural Products Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: Corn and Starch Price Data - From November 11 - 17, 2025, the price in Changchun remained at 2070, while prices in Jinzhou increased by 20 and decreased by 20 in some periods; the price in Shekou increased by 10. The base difference increased by 23, and the trade profit decreased by 10 [3] Core Views - Short - term: Driven by supply tightening in production areas and downstream restocking demand, corn prices have started to rise. Farmers' reluctance to sell delays the release of selling pressure. Starch prices follow raw material prices, but high inventory suppresses starch prices due to slow downstream restocking [4] - Long - term: The corn market supply - demand pattern remains tight, and planting costs support prices. After the release of farmers' selling pressure, corn prices may start a new upward cycle. For starch, downstream consumption rhythm is the key to price trends [4] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - From November 11 - 17, 2025, the Zhengzhou futures warehouse receipt remained at 8805 [5] Core Views - Short - term: Zhengzhou sugar is more affected by import quota management and syrup pre - mixed powder import control than the foreign market. Domestic sugar cost is the key support before new quota licenses are issued [5] - Long - term: If the global sugar market surplus intensifies, domestic sugar cost may be temporarily broken through. The global and domestic sugar supply is loose, and a short - selling strategy is maintained, but the downward space is limited in the short term [5] Group 4: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Data - From November 11 - 17, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 40, and the warehouse receipt + forecast increased by 174. The price of cotton yarn decreased by 10, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 32 [7] Core Views - New cotton procurement is almost completed, and the total output forecast is lowered. The positive outcome of the China - US meeting in Busan is beneficial to textile exports, and the valuation is unlikely to return to the April low, making long - term long positions suitable [7] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - From November 13 - 17, 2025, the price in some production areas remained stable, and the price difference decreased by 0.08 [13] Core Views - Supply: Orderly chicken culling and a decrease in new layer hens relieve supply pressure. Demand: Cool weather allows longer egg storage, and some traders build rolling inventories. The price center in production areas moves up slightly. Monitoring the culling rhythm is important as accelerated culling can drive prices up [13] Group 6: Apples Price Data - From November 11 - 17, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8000.00, and the national inventory increased by 132, with Shandong and Shaanxi inventories increasing by 177 and 95 respectively [14][15] Core Views - National apple storage is almost complete. The estimated national cold - storage inventory is about 5.5%, 10% less than last year. The average opening price is above 3.5 yuan/jin, and good - quality apples are scarce. The price is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term [15] Group 7: Pigs Price Data - From November 11 - 17, 2025, prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, Shandong Linyi, Anhui Hefei, and Jiangsu Nantong decreased by 0.30, 0.20, 0.20, 0.25, and 0.30 respectively, and the base difference decreased by 220 [15] Core Views - Short - term: Northern markets are weak, and southern markets are stable. The market is in a weak shock game. Mid - term: Supply pressure remains due to un - reduced production capacity, and attention should be paid to factors such as delivery rhythm, diseases, and policies. Track capital sentiment under high open interest [15]

农产品日报 | 2025-11-13 市场观望为主，豆粕窄幅震荡 粕类观点 近期市场资讯，11月11日，巴西全国谷物出口商协会表示，巴西11月大豆出口量料为426万吨，上周预测为377万 吨。巴西11月豆粕出口量料为247万吨，上周预测为223万吨。 市场分析 当前整体供需格局并未改变，下游油厂开机率偏高，但大豆及豆粕库存仍维持高位，下游需求方面多以滚动补库 为主，整体仍处于供应宽松格局。综合来看，未来仍需重点关注大豆进口情况，新季南美大豆的天气情况以及政 策端的变化情况。 策略 谨慎偏空 风险 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3059元/吨，较前日变动+5元/吨，幅度+0.16%；菜粕2601合约2494元/吨，较前 日变动-6元/吨，幅度-0.24%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3050元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M01-9， 较前日变动-5；江苏地区豆粕现货3000元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M01-59，较前日变动-5；广东地区豆 粕现货价格3000元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M01-59，较前日变动-5。福建地区菜粕现货价格2680元/ 吨，较 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [2][4][8] Group 2: Report Core Views - The global cotton market's supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose in the new year, with short - term external market pressure and long - term focus on US cotton production and export. The domestic cotton market has low initial inventory but new supply. Short - term cotton price increase is limited, while long - term is optimistic [2] - The global sugar market may be in a bear cycle in the 25/26 season. Brazilian sugar supply is strong in the short - term, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures have limited upward and downward space in the short - term [4][5] - The pulp market has a supply - demand imbalance. Supply remains loose, and demand is weak. Pulp prices are expected to continue low - level fluctuations [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,620 yuan/ton yesterday, up 55 yuan/ton (+0.41%) from the previous day. Spot: Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,650 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton; national average price was 14,840 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In September, Bangladesh imported about 152,000 tons of cotton, a 14.4% increase from August and 5.9% from the previous year [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global cotton market's supply - demand is expected to be loose, with short - term external market pressure due to supply and demand issues. Domestically, old - season cotton inventory is low, but new supply is increasing. Short - term cotton price increase is limited by hedging and weak demand, while long - term is affected by low initial inventory and consumption resilience [2] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term, there is a possibility of a callback; long - term, cotton prices are optimistic [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5494 yuan/ton yesterday, up 11 yuan/ton (+0.20%) from the previous day. Spot: Guangxi Nanning sugar price was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yunnan Kunming price was 5720 yuan/ton, unchanged. It is estimated that in mid - October in Brazil's central - southern region, sugarcane crushing will be 33.42 million tons (down 1.5% year - on - year), sugar production 2.47 million tons (up 0.6% year - on - year), and ethanol production 1.973 billion liters (down 3.1% year - on - year) [3] Market Analysis - The Brazilian sugar supply is strong in the short - term, and the global sugar market may be in a bear cycle. The Zhengzhou sugar futures have limited upward and downward space in the short - term due to sufficient domestic supply and weak external market [4][5] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term, follow the weak external market; pay attention to the support at around 5400 [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: Pulp 2601 contract closed at 5242 yuan/ton yesterday, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.31%) from the previous day. Spot: Shandong's Chilean silver star coniferous pulp price was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged; Russian needle pulp price was 4985 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. Imported wood pulp spot prices were mostly stable with some fluctuations [5][6] Market Analysis - The pulp market's supply remains loose, and demand is weak both at home and abroad. The traditional peak season has not seen strong demand [7] Strategy - Neutral. Pulp prices are expected to continue low - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the actual demand in the fourth - quarter peak season [8]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] 2) Core Views - **Cotton**: The global cotton market supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose in the new year, with short - term external markets under pressure. In China, although the old - season cotton inventory is low, the new cotton supply is increasing. The short - term upward space for cotton prices is limited, but the medium - to - long - term outlook is relatively optimistic [2] - **Sugar**: The global sugar market in the 25/26 season may be in a bear cycle, with the raw sugar price hitting a new low. The short - term rebound space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited, but the downward space is also restricted [4][5] - **Pulp**: The pulp supply remains loose, and the demand is weak. The pulp price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [7][8] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - **Market News and Key Data**: On the futures side, the cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,565 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (+0.18%) from the previous day. On the spot side, the Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,690 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,833 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. From October 17 - 23, 2025, the US graded and inspected 153,500 tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, with 77.6% meeting the ICE cotton futures delivery requirements [1] - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, due to the delay of key data release and the expected loose supply - demand pattern, the short - term external market is under pressure. In China, the old - season cotton inventory is low, but the new cotton supply is increasing. The short - term upward space for cotton prices is limited, and the medium - to - long - term depends on the implementation of the US cotton production reduction and export goals [2] - **Strategy**: Neutral. There is a high hedging pressure on the short - term disk, and there is a possibility of a callback. In the medium - to - long - term, the cotton price outlook is relatively optimistic [2] Sugar - **Market News and Key Data**: On the futures side, the sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,445 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.02%) from the previous day. In Guangxi Nanning, the spot price was 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Yunnan Kunming, it was 5,725 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. In September 2025, China's refined sugar production was 539,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.4%, and from January - September, it was 10.984 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [3] - **Market Analysis**: The raw sugar price hit a new low due to the strong supply from Brazil and the expected global sugar surplus. The short - term rebound space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited, but the downward space is also restricted as the import intensity is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter [4][5] - **Strategy**: Neutral. There is no obvious short - term driver, and Zhengzhou sugar may follow the weak trend of the external market. Attention should be paid to whether it can form a phased support around 5,400 [5] Pulp - **Market News and Key Data**: On the futures side, the pulp 2601 contract closed at 5,258 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+0.34%) from the previous day. In Shandong, the spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp was 5,500 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,990 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - **Market Analysis**: The supply of pulp remains loose, with the overseas production reduction plan having limited impact. The demand is weak, with low paper mill operating rates and over - capacity in the paper industry. The downstream paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious [7] - **Strategy**: Neutral. The pulp price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][8] Core Viewpoints - The global cotton supply - demand pattern has shifted from loose to tight, with short - term support for domestic cotton prices but potential pressure during new flower listing. Sugar prices are facing short - term downward pressure but limited downside due to low domestic inventory. Pulp prices are expected to continue low - level oscillations due to weak fundamentals [2][5][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,855 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (+0.14%). The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,210 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,286 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan/ton [1] - Floods in Pakistan's Punjab province damaged about 35% of cotton crops, with 40 - 50% damage in the largest producing area, Bahawalnagar [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, India's extended tariff exemption supports US cotton. The USDA's August report tightened the global cotton supply - demand pattern, but some production adjustments may be incomplete. US cotton's upside is limited by slow export sales. Domestically, cotton de - stocking is fast, commercial inventory is low, and short - term price support is strong. New - year production increase expectations are high, but there may be early - stage grabbing and later - stage hedging pressure [2] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Short - term support for Zhengzhou cotton is strong before new flower listing, but there may be pressure during the new flower concentration period [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,535 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (+0.31%). The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,880 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,835 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [3] - Inner Mongolia's first sugar factory is expected to start production on September 8, 4 days earlier than last year, with an estimated output of 70 - 750,000 tons [3] Market Analysis - ICE raw sugar is under pressure due to production increases in Brazil and the Northern Hemisphere. Zhengzhou sugar has been weak due to abundant short - term supply from imports and concerns about syrup policy relaxation [5] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Domestic sugar prices may bottom - consolidate due to low inventory [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the pulp 2511 contract closed at 4,996 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton (+0.52%). The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,690 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,090 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - The imported wood pulp spot market was generally stable, with only sporadic price drops [6] Market Analysis - Overseas pulp mill production cuts have not significantly changed the supply pattern. Domestic pulp production capacity is increasing, but high port inventory maintains supply pressure. Demand is weak both overseas and domestically, with low terminal demand and low paper mill operating rates [7] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Pulp prices are expected to continue low - level oscillations due to weak fundamentals [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three major commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][6][9] 2. Core Views - The global cotton supply - demand pattern has shifted from loose to tight according to USDA, but the lack of abnormal weather in major producing areas makes the market skeptical. In China, short - term supply tightness supports cotton prices, but weak downstream demand creates pressure. Mid - term, good new cotton growth may suppress prices [2] - For sugar, Brazilian data shows a trade - off between sugar production and other factors. In China, slow domestic sales, high import profits, and large imports are increasing domestic spot pressure. A possible new - season delay may lead to a price increase in the fourth quarter [5][6] - Regarding pulp, supply pressure remains high due to increased imports and domestic capacity. Weak demand both in Europe, the US, and China, along with low terminal demand and high inventory, means the market is likely to remain weak in the short - term [7][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Cotton 2601 futures closed at 14,030 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,038 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton. The national average price was 15,210 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1] - As of August 15, India's new - season cotton planting area was 10.8 million hectares, a 2.7% decrease from the previous year. In Mato Grosso, the picking progress was 40%, 17 percentage points behind the same period last year [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, USDA's reduction in global cotton production and ending stocks led to a short - term increase in US cotton prices, but the market is skeptical. Domestically, tight supply in the short - term supports prices, but weak downstream demand creates pressure. Mid - term, new cotton listing may suppress prices [2] Strategy - A neutral stance is recommended. Low inventory and the approaching textile peak season support prices, but policy regulation and long - term industry factors limit the upside [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Sugar 2601 futures closed at 5688 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton (+0.21%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5970 yuan/ton, unchanged. In Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5855 yuan/ton, also unchanged [4] - In July 2025, China's sugar - related imports totaled 7.43 tons, and the domestic refined sugar production in July was 41 tons, a 64.7% year - on - year increase [4] Market Analysis - Internationally, Brazilian sugar data shows a complex situation. In China, slow domestic sales, high import profits, and large imports are increasing domestic spot pressure [5][6] Strategy - A neutral stance is recommended. Short - term price is likely to fluctuate within a range due to supply pressure, but a possible new - season delay may lead to a price increase in the fourth quarter [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Pulp 2511 futures closed at 5130 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.12%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5800 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - Supply pressure remains high due to increased imports and domestic capacity. Weak demand both in Europe, the US, and China, along with low terminal demand and high inventory, means the market is likely to remain weak [7][8] Strategy - A neutral stance is recommended. With no significant improvement in the market fundamentals, short - term prices are likely to remain in a low - level oscillation [9]