Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. The anti-involution policy still has expectations, providing strong support at the bottom. The weekly环比 apparent consumption has rebounded, and the year-on-year is still strong. The demand in the off-season has strong resilience. The warming of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. The total inventory is relatively high, which exerts some pressure, but it has been continuously de-stocked recently. If this trend continues, the pressure will be alleviated. The hot-rolled coil futures have briefly fallen below the 5-day moving average. Attention should be paid to the support near the 10-day and 20-day moving averages. It is recommended to take a cautiously bullish approach and consider buying on dips. However, it should be noted that the oscillation range has not been completely broken yet [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **期货价格**: On Thursday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract decreased by 530 lots, and the trading volume was 326,133 lots, showing a slight increase compared with the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,295 yuan, and the high was 3,314 yuan. It oscillated and consolidated during the day. From the daily moving average, it briefly retraced to find support near the 10-day moving average and then rebounded. It was operating strongly above the medium-term 20-day moving average, closing at 3,307 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - **现货价格**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [2]. - **基差**: The basis between futures and spot was -17 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 15, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 28,500 tons to 3.0836 million tons compared with the previous week. The year-on-year output decreased by 118,300 tons. The output has been rising for four consecutive weeks, mainly due to the improvement in steel mill profitability, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of some steel mill hot metal from building materials to plates, and the resumption of production by steel mills after annual maintenance, which promoted the increase in supply. The subsequent increase in supply needs to be observed [4]. - **Demand**: As of January 15, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 58,200 tons to 3.1416 million tons compared with the previous week. The apparent consumption rebounded significantly this week, with a year-on-year increase of 5,100 tons. The demand data is at a high level in recent years, indicating that demand still has resilience [4]. - **Inventory**: As of January 15, the total inventory decreased by 58,000 tons to 3.6233 million tons compared with the previous week (the social inventory decreased by 50,100 tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 7,900 tons). The total inventory continued to be de-stocked, indicating that the current demand for hot-rolled coils has resilience. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years. If the de-stocking trend continues, the pressure on prices will decrease [4]. - **Policy**: A new regulation on the export license management of steel products has been introduced. In the short term, it will cause fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Addressing involution competition was listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Decrease in supply-side production, expectation of the start of winter storage demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Steel mill resumption of production in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. The anti-involution policy still has expectations, providing strong support at the bottom. Although the weekly apparent consumption has slightly declined, it remains strong year-on-year. It is normal for the demand to decline slightly in the off-season. The warming up of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. The total inventory is relatively high, exerting some pressure. The hot-rolled coil futures have briefly fallen below the 5-day moving average, and attention should be paid to the support near the 10-day and 20-day moving averages. It is recommended to adopt a cautiously bullish approach and consider buying on dips. However, note that the oscillation range has not been completely broken yet [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures prices: On Wednesday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased by 8,625 lots, with a trading volume of 309,018 lots, showing a decline compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,297 yuan, and the high was 3,316 yuan. It showed an intraday increase in open interest and oscillated. In terms of the daily moving average, it briefly fell below the 5-day moving average but remained above the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, closing at 3,306 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% [1]. - Spot prices: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The futures-spot basis was -16 yuan, with the futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 8, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 10,000 tons to 3.0551 million tons compared to the previous week. It was 16,200 tons higher year-on-year. The output has rebounded for three consecutive weeks, mainly due to the improvement in steel mill profitability, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of some steel mill hot metal from building materials to plates, and the intensified resumption of production after the end of the annual maintenance of steel mills, driving the supply to recover. The subsequent recovery strength needs to be observed [4]. - Demand: As of January 8, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 24,300 tons to 3.0834 million tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand slightly declined, but it was 72,500 tons higher year-on-year, indicating that the demand still has resilience [4]. - Inventory: As of January 8, the total inventory decreased by 28,300 tons to 3.6813 million tons compared to the previous week (the social inventory increased by 21,700 tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 50,000 tons, resulting in a total inventory decrease of 28,300 tons). The total inventory continued to be destocked, but the destocking amplitude narrowed. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years, and the inventory still exerts a suppressing effect on prices [4]. - Policy: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products have been introduced. In the short term, it will lead to fluctuations in exports, an increase in supply, and price pressure. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Deeply rectifying involution-style competition was listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: A decline in supply-side production, the expectation of the start of winter storage demand, the rush to export, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and the strength of iron ore as a furnace charge [5]. - Bearish factors: The resumption of production by steel mills in January exceeded expectations, the seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and the suppression of prices by inventory accumulation [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hot-rolled coil industry is cautiously bullish [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. Anti-involution policies still hold potential, offering strong support at the lower end. Although the weekly apparent consumption has slightly declined, the year-on-year figure remains strong. It's normal for demand to dip slightly in the off-season. The warming sentiment for winter storage may stimulate a wave of demand. In terms of cost, the strength of coking coal and coke, along with the sharp rise in iron ore prices, provide strong cost support. Despite the relatively high total inventory exerting some pressure, the hot-rolled coil market first saw a significant upward breakthrough, followed by two days of adjustment, then stabilized and strengthened near the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. It is recommended to adopt a cautiously bullish approach and consider buying on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 (Market Review) - **Futures Price**: On Monday, the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased its open interest by 10,408 lots and had a trading volume of 408,729 lots, which was a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,289 yuan, and the high was 3,320 yuan. It showed a bullish trend with increased open interest during the day, standing above the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages. It closed at 3,311 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton or 0.55% [1]. - **Spot Price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was -21 yuan, indicating a slight premium of the futures over the spot [2]. 基本面数据 (Fundamental Data) - **Supply**: As of January 8, the weekly production of hot-rolled coils increased by 10,000 tons to 3.0551 million tons compared to the previous week. Year-on-year, it rose by 16,200 tons. Production has been rising for three consecutive weeks, mainly due to improved profitability of steel mills, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of some steel mills' hot metal from building materials to plates, and the resumption of production after the end of annual maintenance. The subsequent upward momentum needs to be monitored [3]. - **Demand**: As of January 8, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 24,300 tons to 3.0834 million tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand declined slightly, but year-on-year, it rose by 72,500 tons, indicating that demand still has resilience [3]. - **Inventory**: As of January 8, the total inventory decreased by 28,300 tons to 3.6813 million tons on a weekly basis (social inventory increased by 21,700 tons, and steel mill inventory decreased by 50,000 tons). The total inventory continued to decline, but the decline rate narrowed. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years, and the inventory still exerts pressure on prices [3]. - **Policy**: New regulations on the export license management of steel products have been introduced. In the short term, it will cause fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Addressing involution competition has been listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [3][4]. 市场驱动因素分析 (Market Driving Factor Analysis) - **Bullish Factors**: Decrease in supply-side production, expectation of winter storage demand start, export rush market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore prices [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and price suppression due to inventory accumulation [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. The anti-involution policy still has expectations, providing strong support at the lower end. Although the weekly apparent consumption has slightly declined, it remains relatively strong year-on-year. A slight decline in off-season demand is normal. The warming of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. From the cost side, the strength of coking coal and coke and the sharp rise of iron ore provide strong cost support. The total inventory is relatively high, posing some pressure. On Wednesday, the entire black series rose sharply, with high enthusiasm. The hot-rolled coil futures broke through upwards with heavy volume. On Thursday, it tested the support level during intraday trading. It is recommended to adopt a bullish approach and it is relatively safe to buy on dips. It is expected to continue to rise strongly [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Wednesday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased by 63,008 lots, with a trading volume of 696,880 lots, showing a contraction compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,302 yuan, and the high was 3,348 yuan. It fluctuated within the day with intense washing. From the perspective of the daily moving average, it stood above the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages, showing strength. It closed at 3,317 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton, or 0.48% [1] - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was 3 yuan, close to flat water [2] Fundamental Data - Supply side: As of January 8, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 10,000 tons to 3.0551 million tons compared to the previous week. It was up 16,200 tons year-on-year. The output has rebounded for three consecutive weeks, mainly due to the improvement in steel mill profitability, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of molten iron from building materials to plates by some steel mills, and the resumption of production after the end of the annual maintenance of steel mills. The supply has increased, and the subsequent increase needs to be observed [3] - Demand side: As of January 8, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 24,300 tons to 3.0834 million tons compared to the previous week. The apparent consumption declined slightly, but it was up 72,500 tons year-on-year. The demand still showed resilience [3] - Inventory side: As of January 8, the total inventory decreased by 28,300 tons to 3.6813 million tons week-on-week (social inventory increased by 21,700 tons, and steel mill inventory decreased by 50,000 tons). The total inventory continued to decline, but the decline rate narrowed. The total inventory was at a five-year high. The inventory still exerted pressure on prices [3] - Policy side: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products have been introduced. In the short term, it will lead to fluctuations in exports, an increase in supply, and price pressure. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Deeply rectifying involutionary competition was listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [3][4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Decrease in supply-side output, expectation of the start of winter storage demand, export rush market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and the strength of iron ore as a furnace charge [5] - Bearish factors: The resumption of production of steel mills in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply and demand of hot-rolled coils are both increasing. Last week's data showed that the increase in production was greater than the growth in demand, and the absolute level of inventory was relatively high, which had been digested by the market. Today's sharp rise in the market will drive a certain increase in spot prices and a warming of transactions. The warming of winter storage sentiment may stimulate a wave of demand. The cost side provides strong support, and the anti-involution policy also provides strong support at the bottom. It is recommended to adopt a bullish approach and buy on dips, expecting the price to continue to rise strongly [5] Group 3: Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents Market Review - Futures prices: The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures increased its open interest by 103,802 lots on Wednesday, with a trading volume of 943,506 lots, a significant increase compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,259 yuan, and the high was 3,338 yuan. It closed at 3,332 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton or 2.52%. It stood above the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages [1] - Spot prices: The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a major region, was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was -42 yuan, indicating a slight premium of the futures over the spot [2] Fundamental Data - Supply side: As of December 31, the weekly production of hot-rolled coils increased by 109,700 tons to 3.0451 million tons. Production has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, mainly due to improved profitability of steel mills, increased production enthusiasm, iron water transfer from building materials to plates, and the end of annual maintenance and increased resumption of production [3] - Demand side: As of December 31, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 37,300 tons to 3.1077 million tons. Demand still shows resilience, but future demand data needs to be monitored [3] - Inventory side: As of December 31, the total inventory decreased by 62,600 tons to 3.7096 million tons week-on-week. Social inventory decreased by 80,600 tons, while steel mill inventory increased by 18,000 tons. The inventory is still being depleted, but the depletion rate has narrowed. The total inventory is at a five-year high, still exerting downward pressure on prices [3] - Policy side: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short-term export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness enhancement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability [3][4] - External macro: The events in the United States and Venezuela may bring uncertainties [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Significant decline in supply-side production, expectation of winter storage demand start, export rush, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore prices [5] - Bearish factors: Exceeding expectations in steel mill复产 in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current supply and demand of hot-rolled coils are both increasing. Last week's data shows that the increase in production is greater than the growth in demand. Coupled with the relatively high absolute level of inventory, there is no upward driving force for prices. The destocking of social inventory relies on low-price promotions, and the partial accumulation of steel mill inventory indicates that traders are cautious about winter storage. From the cost side, coking coal is at a low level while iron ore is relatively strong. However, there are still expectations for anti-involution policies, so there is also support at the bottom. It is expected that the short-term trend will be weak and volatile. The daily line has fallen below the 20-day moving average, so beware of further weakening [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures increased its open interest by 26,969 lots on Monday, with a trading volume of 391,613 lots, an increase compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,243 yuan, the high was 3,277 yuan. It decreased in price with increased open interest during the day, closing at 3,248 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.79% [1]. - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,270 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was 22 yuan, close to par [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply side: As of December 31, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 109,700 tons week-on-week to 3.0451 million tons. The output has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, and the rebound was significant compared to last week. This was mainly due to the improvement in steel mills' profitability, which increased production enthusiasm. Additionally, some steel mills reallocated molten iron from building materials to plates, and steel mills ended their annual maintenance and increased the intensity of resuming production, driving the supply to increase. The subsequent increase needs to be observed [4]. - Demand side: As of December 31, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 37,300 tons week-on-week to 3.1077 million tons. The apparent consumption rebounded, indicating that demand still had resilience, but subsequent demand data still needed to be monitored [4]. - Inventory side: As of December 31, the total inventory decreased by 62,600 tons week-on-week to 3.7096 million tons (social inventory decreased by 80,600 tons, and steel mill inventory increased by 18,000 tons, with a total inventory decrease of 62,600 tons). The total inventory continued to decline, but the decline rate narrowed, indicating that demand had good resilience in late December. The increase in steel mill inventory was mainly affected by the end of the month and the New Year's Day holiday. The total inventory was at a five-year high, and inventory still had a suppressing effect on prices [4]. - Policy side: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in the macro - economic aspect. Deeply rectifying involution - style competition was listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5]. - External macro: The events between the United States and Venezuela may have uncertain impacts [6]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: A significant decrease in supply - side production, the expectation of the start of winter storage demand, the rush - to - export market, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and the strength of iron ore as a furnace material [6]. - Bearish factors: Steel mills' resumption of production in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and price suppression due to inventory accumulation [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Views - As the situation in South America worsens with the US escalating military actions against Venezuela, the shipment of Venezuelan crude oil to Asia has significantly declined, increasing risks for non-US buyers [1] - With the marginal easing of supply pressure and the stabilization of the spot market, the bottom signal of the asphalt market is gradually strengthening. However, the actual fundamentals remain weak. The potential upward driver of the market comes from the raw material side. If the supply of Venezuelan oil continues to tighten, leading to an increase in the cost center of asphalt refineries, there is room for further rebound in the asphalt spot and futures markets. If the raw material problem is disproven, the asphalt market will face significant resistance next year due to loose fundamentals and weak oil price expectations [1] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish on the single-side, focus on the opportunity to go long on the main BU contract at low prices and avoid chasing the rise. For the inter-period spread, pay attention to the opportunity of positive spreads (BU2603 - BU2606) [2] Summary by Related Catalogs US Seizure of Venezuelan Oil Tankers Increases Risks in Asphalt Raw Material Supply - This year, the US sanctions on Venezuela have changed, affecting Venezuelan oil supply and pricing, which has been transmitted to the domestic market. For example, in January, the US froze PDVSA's $7 billion assets in the US; in March, it imposed a 25% secondary tariff on countries importing Venezuelan oil; in May, it revoked the oil exploration and export licenses of some companies; in July, it issued a limited "new general license" to Chevron [7] - In the first half of the year, the US sanctions on Venezuela mainly focused on the economic level, especially the change in oil license permissions, which led to a significant decline in Venezuelan oil exports to Europe and the US, and more resources flowed to Asia. In the second and third quarters, the arrival volume of Venezuelan oil in China increased, the raw material supply became more abundant, and the cost support for the asphalt market weakened [8] - In the fourth quarter, the US actions against Venezuela expanded from the economic to the military level. Since September, the US has carried out a series of military actions, and in December, it seized two Venezuelan oil tankers. As a result, the shipment of Venezuelan crude oil to Asia has significantly declined recently, and the floating storage and in-transit inventory of Merey crude oil have increased significantly. If the US blockade continues, the supply of Venezuelan oil to Asia will tighten, and domestic refineries may face a significant increase in raw material costs [9][11] Winter Storage Demand is Gradually Released, and the Bottom Signal of the Spot Market Appears - Previously, due to the decline in oil prices and the discount of diluted asphalt, refinery profits improved, and major refineries released low-priced resources. However, the terminal demand was weak, putting pressure on the spot market. Recently, with the release of winter storage demand, some refineries have switched to producing residual oil, and the supply pressure in the market has eased marginally. The spot market in the northern region has stabilized first. The escalation of the Venezuelan situation has increased concerns about the raw material side, stimulating the enthusiasm of downstream procurement and warehousing [21] - The South China market has been weaker. Recently, major refineries have released more supply, and the downstream has difficulty digesting it. The spot price has continued to decline, reaching around 2,800 yuan/ton. As the asphalt futures market is affected by the raw material sentiment, the basis in the South China region has decreased, and the spot-futures arbitrage window has opened, stimulating spot buying. After the concentrated release of selling pressure in December, the supply from refineries in the South China region has decreased, and the market pressure has eased [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures are expected to have upward momentum at the beginning of the week, but face integer - level pressure. The conversion of contract months may lead to an expansion of basis. The bond market for treasury futures is cautiously optimistic in the short - term, with short - term trading opportunities in the TL contract [21][23]. - Agricultural products have different trends. Protein meal prices are under pressure, sugar is expected to bottom - oscillate, and the cotton - cotton yarn market is strong due to factors such as good sales of new cotton [27][32][54]. - Black metals show different characteristics. Steel prices are range - bound, coking coal and coke may rebound from the bottom, and iron ore prices are volatile [58][61][64]. - Non - ferrous metals also vary. Precious metals like gold and silver are likely to continue their strong trend, while base metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc have different price trends due to various factors [70][84][91]. - Energy and chemical products have diverse situations. Crude oil prices are bottom - oscillating, asphalt has support, and fuel oil is weakly - oscillating [116][120][124]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Investment Logic**: The market was first down then up last week. The Shanghai Composite Index faces the 3900 - point decision. There may be a style switch, and the acquisition plan of Shenhua may drive large enterprises. Futures contracts' basis may expand after the contract - month change, and short - selling forces have increased [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy for unilateral trading; wait for the basis to expand for IM\IC long 2603 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; use a double - buying strategy for options [21]. Treasury Futures - **Investment Logic**: The bond market is less sensitive to weak economic data. The capital supply is loose, increasing the market's expectation of interest - rate cuts. The short - and medium - term bonds are relatively stable, while the long - term bonds' recovery is uncertain [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term, buy low and sell high for the TL contract [23]. 3.2 Agricultural Products Protein Meal - **Investment Logic**: The global soybean supply is abundant. Domestic soybean meal has an uncertain supply, and rapeseed meal is expected to oscillate [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a bearish view for unilateral trading; narrow the MRM spread for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle strategy for options [28]. Sugar - **Investment Logic**: Internationally, the Brazilian sugar supply pressure is easing, and the northern hemisphere is in an increasing - production cycle. Domestically, new sugar production is increasing, but there is cost support [31][32]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, watch for the support at previous lows; for arbitrage, go long on the January contract and short on the May contract; for options, wait and see [32]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Investment Logic**: Domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing, but the overall supply is sufficient. There is a lack of positive drivers for oils, but the downward space is limited [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, go long on palm oil after it stops falling and rebounds, and wait and see for soybean oil and rapeseed oil; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [35]. 3.3 Black Metals Steel - **Investment Logic**: The steel price is range - bound. The replenishment expectation has not been fulfilled, and the cost has support, but the upward space is limited [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, maintain the oscillating trend; for arbitrage, short the coil - coal ratio and hold the short position in the coil - rebar spread; for options, wait and see [59]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Investment Logic**: The coking coal auction situation has improved, but the price increase is not widespread. The coking coal supply may improve in the future, but the price fluctuation is large [61]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see or go long lightly at low prices; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [62]. Iron Ore - **Investment Logic**: The iron ore supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The price increase space is limited [64]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is oscillating; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [65]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Precious Metals - **Investment Logic**: The obstacles to interest - rate cuts have decreased, and gold and silver are likely to continue their strong trend [70]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold long positions in gold and silver based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, buy out - of - the - money call options [72]. Base Metals - **Investment Logic**: Different base metals have different price trends due to factors such as supply and demand, cost, and policies [79][85][91]. - **Trading Strategy**: Each metal has different trading strategies, including unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading, mainly depending on its specific situation [79][85][91]. 3.5 Energy and Chemical Products Crude Oil - **Investment Logic**: Geopolitical factors cause frequent disturbances, and the oil price is bottom - oscillating. The supply - demand surplus pressure is significant [116]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is weakly oscillating; for arbitrage, the domestic gasoline is neutral, the diesel is weak, and the oil - price spread is weak; for options, wait and see [117]. Asphalt - **Investment Logic**: The raw - material risk is difficult to prove false, and the asphalt price has support. The supply - demand fundamentals may weaken [120]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is oscillating; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [120]. Fuel Oil - **Investment Logic**: The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weakly oscillating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening [124]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, go short; for arbitrage, the low - sulfur and high - sulfur crack spreads are weak; for options, wait and see [124].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral strategy is neutral, wait for clear bottom signals, focus on left - side buying opportunities on dips, and avoid chasing up [3] Group 2: Core View - On December 17, the afternoon closing price of the main BU2602 asphalt futures contract was 3,012 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price, a rise of 3.58%; the position was 235,465 lots, down 1,592 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 504,034 lots, up 131,674 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information were 3,156 - 3,500 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 2,820 - 3,270 yuan/ton in Shandong, 2,920 - 3,100 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,100 - 3,220 yuan/ton in East China [1] - The sharp rise in asphalt futures yesterday was due to the rebound of crude oil prices after continuous declines, which eased the pressure on downstream energy - chemical commodities, and the gradual release of winter storage demand in the asphalt market; potential positive factors may come from raw material disturbances, as the situation in Venezuela has heated up, leading to a marginal tightening of Venezuelan oil shipments and a slight recovery in the discount of diluted asphalt. If the crisis persists, it may drive up the asphalt cost center. Considering the uncertainty of the Venezuelan situation and the current sufficient raw materials for domestic refineries, the rise is more sentiment - driven, and attention should be paid to the risk of expectation falsification. It is advisable to focus on low - buying and hedging strategies [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The afternoon closing price of the main BU2602 asphalt futures contract on December 17 was 3,012 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price, a rise of 3.58%; the position was 235,465 lots, down 1,592 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 504,034 lots, up 131,674 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information were 3,156 - 3,500 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 2,820 - 3,270 yuan/ton in Shandong, 2,920 - 3,100 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,100 - 3,220 yuan/ton in East China [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, wait for clear bottom signals, focus on left - side buying opportunities on dips, and avoid chasing up [3] - Cross - varieties: None [3] - Cross - periods: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] Charts - There are charts showing the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest China, Northwest China), the closing prices of asphalt futures indices, main contracts, and near - month contracts, the spreads of near - month contracts, the trading volume and positions of asphalt futures, the weekly production of domestic asphalt and the production of independent refineries and in different regions, the consumption of domestic asphalt in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and the inventories of asphalt refineries and social inventories [4]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic petroleum asphalt futures experienced a significant increase, with the main contract BU2602 rising by 3.58% as of the afternoon close [1] Group 1: Market Drivers - The rebound in crude oil prices after a period of decline has alleviated pressure on downstream chemical products [1] - The recent release of winter storage demand has provided a supportive signal for asphalt prices, although further stimulus factors are needed for a bottom rebound [1] Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - The situation in Venezuela has escalated, with the U.S. seizing Venezuelan oil tankers, leading to a marginal tightening of Venezuelan oil shipments and a slight recovery in asphalt discounts [1] - Despite a previous high level of imports, there is currently no short-term shortage of raw materials; however, a prolonged crisis in Venezuela could hinder domestic refineries' access to raw materials, pushing asphalt cost centers higher [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Given the ongoing uncertainty regarding the situation in Venezuela and the temporary lack of raw material shortages for domestic refineries, the recent price increase is more driven by market sentiment [1] - Caution is advised against excessive speculation, and attention should be paid to emerging bottom signals in the spot market, suggesting a strategy of low-cost accumulation or hedging [1]