Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for hot - rolled coils is "Oscillating with an upward bias", maintaining a bullish view [6] Core Viewpoints - Currently, the supply of hot - rolled coils is contracting, and the demand is resilient, resulting in an overall tight balance between supply and demand. Pre - holiday winter stockpiling is an important support for current demand. The social inventory is decreasing month - on - month, and the factory inventory pressure is controllable. Although the inventory is still high year - on - year, the overall inventory risk has marginally improved. The tight balance between supply and demand and inventory reduction support prices. In the future, attention should be paid to raw material costs and the strength of post - holiday demand recovery. Technically, the price has stood above the 5 - day and 30 - day moving averages, and it is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short term [6] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **期货价格**: On Friday, the持仓 volume of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract increased by 33,977 lots, and the trading volume was 304,877 lots, showing an increase compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,283 yuan, and the high was 3,310 yuan, with an oscillating upward trend. It closed at 3,305 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan or 0.52%. It has stood above the 5 - day and 30 - day moving averages, and if it holds, the probability of short - and medium - term strengthening is relatively high [1] - **现货价格**: The price of hot - rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2] - **基差**: The basis between futures and spot was - 15 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 22, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 29,500 tons month - on - month to 3.0541 million tons, and decreased by 172,300 tons year - on - year. The output decline may be affected by factors such as maintenance arrangements and profit fluctuations, which supports prices [4] - **Demand**: As of January 22, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 42,000 tons month - on - month to 3.0996 million tons, and increased by 73,900 tons year - on - year. Although the demand has slightly declined month - on - month, it has maintained growth year - on - year. Pre - holiday stockpiling supports demand, and the overall demand is resilient [4] - **Inventory**: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 45,500 tons month - on - month to 3.5778 million tons (social inventory decreased by 46,600 tons month - on - month, and factory inventory increased by 1,100 tons). It increased by 212,700 tons year - on - year (social inventory increased by 241,800 tons year - on - year, and factory inventory decreased by 29,100 tons year - on - year). The total inventory decreased month - on - month, and the inventory pressure has marginally eased. The year - on - year increase indicates that the inventory accumulation speed this year is slightly faster than last year, but the overall risk is controllable [4] - **Policy**: The new regulations on steel export license management will cause short - term export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in - depth rectification of involution - style competition as a key task in 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts are also being made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Decrease in supply - side output, expectation of winter stockpiling demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [6] - **Bearish factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. The anti-involution policy still has expectations, providing strong support at the lower end. The weekly-on-week apparent demand has rebounded, and the year-on-year demand remains strong. The demand during the off-season shows strong resilience. The warming up of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. The total inventory is relatively high, posing some pressure, but the recent continuous destocking may relieve the pressure if it persists. The daily line of hot-rolled coil futures is currently near the support of the 30-day and 60-day moving averages. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether it can stabilize at this level and break through the pressure near the 10-day moving average. It is recommended to adopt a cautiously bullish approach, but note that the oscillation range has not been completely broken yet [6]. Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Price**: On Wednesday, the trading volume of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract decreased compared to the previous trading day. The price fluctuated and stabilized within the day, with a daily low of 3271 yuan and a high of 3290 yuan. It closed at 3286 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.06%. The short-term moving average retraced to the support near the 30-day moving average and then rebounded. Attention should be paid to the pressure near the 10-day moving average [1]. - **Spot Price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3270 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was -16 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 15, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 2.85 million tons to 3.0836 billion tons compared to the previous week. The year-on-year output decreased by 1.183 million tons. The production has been rising for four consecutive weeks, mainly due to improved profitability of steel mills, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of molten iron from building materials to plates, and the resumption of production after the end of annual maintenance [4]. - **Demand**: As of January 15, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 5.82 million tons to 3.1416 billion tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand rebounded significantly this week, with a year-on-year increase of 0.51 million tons. The demand data is at a high level in recent years, indicating strong demand resilience [4]. - **Inventory**: As of January 15, the total inventory decreased by 5.8 million tons to 3.6233 billion tons compared to the previous week. The social inventory decreased by 5.01 million tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 0.79 million tons. The total inventory continued to decline, indicating strong demand for hot-rolled coils. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years, but if the destocking continues, the pressure on prices will decrease [4]. - **Policy**: New regulations on the export license management of steel products have been introduced, which will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, an increase in supply, and price pressure. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness enhancement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involution competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Decrease in supply output, expected start of winter storage demand, export rush market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore prices [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. Anti-involution policies still hold potential, providing strong downside support. The weekly apparent demand has rebounded, remaining strong year-on-year, indicating robust demand resilience during the off-season. The warming sentiment of winter storage may stimulate a wave of demand. Although the total inventory is relatively high, it has been continuously decreasing recently, and if this trend continues, the pressure will ease. The hot-rolled coil futures are currently trading strongly above the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages. It is recommended to adopt a cautiously bullish approach and consider buying on dips. However, it should be noted that the oscillation range has not been completely broken yet [6]. 3. Summary of Each Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The trading volume and open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased on Friday. The intraday price fluctuated within a narrow range, with the lowest price at 3308 yuan and the highest at 3344 yuan. It closed at 3315 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 0.33% from the previous trading day. The short-term moving average retraced to the support level around the 10-day moving average and then rebounded, and it is trading strongly above the medium-term 20-day moving average [1]. - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a major region, was reported at 3310 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The basis between the futures and spot prices is -5 yuan, indicating a slight premium of the futures over the spot [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply side: As of January 15, the weekly production of hot-rolled coils increased by 2.85 million tons to 3.0836 billion tons compared with the previous week, but decreased by 11.83 million tons year-on-year. The production has been rising for four consecutive weeks, mainly due to the improvement in steel mill profitability, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of molten iron from building materials to plates, and the resumption of production by steel mills after annual maintenance [4]. - Demand side: As of January 15, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 5.82 million tons to 3.1416 billion tons, showing a significant rebound this week and an increase of 0.51 million tons year-on-year. The demand data is at a high level in recent years, indicating that the demand still has resilience [4]. - Inventory side: As of January 15, the total inventory decreased by 5.8 million tons to 3.6233 billion tons on a weekly basis (the social inventory decreased by 5.01 million tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 0.79 million tons). The total inventory continued to decline, indicating that the current demand for hot-rolled coils has resilience. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years, but if the de-stocking trend continues, the downward pressure on prices will be reduced [4]. - Policy side: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involutionary competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. The government also aims to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Decrease in supply-side production, expectation of winter storage demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore prices [6]. - Bearish factors: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market opened higher and then oscillated downward. It is recommended to focus on the Venezuelan situation and adopt a reverse spread strategy. It is expected that domestic refineries will still have raw material inventories available before March [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply - Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 25.4% week - on - week, 1.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year. The shipments decreased by 20.05% to 210,300 tons week - on - week, at a relatively low - to - neutral level. The refinery inventory rate increased week - on - week, still near the lowest level in recent years. The US military action in Venezuela may affect domestic asphalt production and cost. This week, the asphalt operating rate remains low [1]. - Demand - Last week, most of the downstream operating rates of asphalt declined. The road asphalt operating rate decreased by 3 percentage points to 17% week - on - week due to capital and weather constraints. The rigid demand in the north will further slow down, while the winter storage demand is continuously released. The overall demand in the south is average, and low - price goods are sold well [1]. - Price - The asphalt price in Shandong is stable, and the basis is at a relatively low - to - neutral level [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures - Today, the asphalt futures contract 2603 fell 0.06% to 3,167 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,155 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,210 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 3,812 to 199,515 lots [2]. - Basis - The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract rose to - 67 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - to - neutral level [4]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply - Refineries such as Zhongyou Gaofu and Jinling Petrochemical stopped asphalt production. The asphalt operating rate decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 25.4% week - on - week, 1.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage point compared with that from January to October 2025 but was still negative. From January to November 2025, the fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry decreased by 4.7% year - on - year, and that in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year [5]. - Inventory - As of the week of January 9, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased by 0.5 percentage points to 13.4% compared with the week of January 2, near the lowest level in recent years [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. The anti-involution policy still has expectations, providing strong support at the bottom. The weekly环比 apparent consumption has rebounded, and the year-on-year is still strong. The demand in the off-season has strong resilience. The warming of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. The total inventory is relatively high, which exerts some pressure, but it has been continuously de-stocked recently. If this trend continues, the pressure will be alleviated. The hot-rolled coil futures have briefly fallen below the 5-day moving average. Attention should be paid to the support near the 10-day and 20-day moving averages. It is recommended to take a cautiously bullish approach and consider buying on dips. However, it should be noted that the oscillation range has not been completely broken yet [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **期货价格**: On Thursday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract decreased by 530 lots, and the trading volume was 326,133 lots, showing a slight increase compared with the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,295 yuan, and the high was 3,314 yuan. It oscillated and consolidated during the day. From the daily moving average, it briefly retraced to find support near the 10-day moving average and then rebounded. It was operating strongly above the medium-term 20-day moving average, closing at 3,307 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - **现货价格**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [2]. - **基差**: The basis between futures and spot was -17 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 15, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 28,500 tons to 3.0836 million tons compared with the previous week. The year-on-year output decreased by 118,300 tons. The output has been rising for four consecutive weeks, mainly due to the improvement in steel mill profitability, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of some steel mill hot metal from building materials to plates, and the resumption of production by steel mills after annual maintenance, which promoted the increase in supply. The subsequent increase in supply needs to be observed [4]. - **Demand**: As of January 15, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 58,200 tons to 3.1416 million tons compared with the previous week. The apparent consumption rebounded significantly this week, with a year-on-year increase of 5,100 tons. The demand data is at a high level in recent years, indicating that demand still has resilience [4]. - **Inventory**: As of January 15, the total inventory decreased by 58,000 tons to 3.6233 million tons compared with the previous week (the social inventory decreased by 50,100 tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 7,900 tons). The total inventory continued to be de-stocked, indicating that the current demand for hot-rolled coils has resilience. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years. If the de-stocking trend continues, the pressure on prices will decrease [4]. - **Policy**: A new regulation on the export license management of steel products has been introduced. In the short term, it will cause fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Addressing involution competition was listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Decrease in supply-side production, expectation of the start of winter storage demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Steel mill resumption of production in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. The anti-involution policy still has expectations, providing strong support at the bottom. Although the weekly apparent consumption has slightly declined, it remains strong year-on-year. It is normal for the demand to decline slightly in the off-season. The warming up of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. The total inventory is relatively high, exerting some pressure. The hot-rolled coil futures have briefly fallen below the 5-day moving average, and attention should be paid to the support near the 10-day and 20-day moving averages. It is recommended to adopt a cautiously bullish approach and consider buying on dips. However, note that the oscillation range has not been completely broken yet [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures prices: On Wednesday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased by 8,625 lots, with a trading volume of 309,018 lots, showing a decline compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,297 yuan, and the high was 3,316 yuan. It showed an intraday increase in open interest and oscillated. In terms of the daily moving average, it briefly fell below the 5-day moving average but remained above the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, closing at 3,306 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% [1]. - Spot prices: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The futures-spot basis was -16 yuan, with the futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 8, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 10,000 tons to 3.0551 million tons compared to the previous week. It was 16,200 tons higher year-on-year. The output has rebounded for three consecutive weeks, mainly due to the improvement in steel mill profitability, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of some steel mill hot metal from building materials to plates, and the intensified resumption of production after the end of the annual maintenance of steel mills, driving the supply to recover. The subsequent recovery strength needs to be observed [4]. - Demand: As of January 8, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 24,300 tons to 3.0834 million tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand slightly declined, but it was 72,500 tons higher year-on-year, indicating that the demand still has resilience [4]. - Inventory: As of January 8, the total inventory decreased by 28,300 tons to 3.6813 million tons compared to the previous week (the social inventory increased by 21,700 tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 50,000 tons, resulting in a total inventory decrease of 28,300 tons). The total inventory continued to be destocked, but the destocking amplitude narrowed. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years, and the inventory still exerts a suppressing effect on prices [4]. - Policy: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products have been introduced. In the short term, it will lead to fluctuations in exports, an increase in supply, and price pressure. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Deeply rectifying involution-style competition was listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: A decline in supply-side production, the expectation of the start of winter storage demand, the rush to export, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and the strength of iron ore as a furnace charge [5]. - Bearish factors: The resumption of production by steel mills in January exceeded expectations, the seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and the suppression of prices by inventory accumulation [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hot-rolled coil industry is cautiously bullish [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. Anti-involution policies still hold potential, offering strong support at the lower end. Although the weekly apparent consumption has slightly declined, the year-on-year figure remains strong. It's normal for demand to dip slightly in the off-season. The warming sentiment for winter storage may stimulate a wave of demand. In terms of cost, the strength of coking coal and coke, along with the sharp rise in iron ore prices, provide strong cost support. Despite the relatively high total inventory exerting some pressure, the hot-rolled coil market first saw a significant upward breakthrough, followed by two days of adjustment, then stabilized and strengthened near the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. It is recommended to adopt a cautiously bullish approach and consider buying on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 (Market Review) - **Futures Price**: On Monday, the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased its open interest by 10,408 lots and had a trading volume of 408,729 lots, which was a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,289 yuan, and the high was 3,320 yuan. It showed a bullish trend with increased open interest during the day, standing above the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages. It closed at 3,311 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton or 0.55% [1]. - **Spot Price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was -21 yuan, indicating a slight premium of the futures over the spot [2]. 基本面数据 (Fundamental Data) - **Supply**: As of January 8, the weekly production of hot-rolled coils increased by 10,000 tons to 3.0551 million tons compared to the previous week. Year-on-year, it rose by 16,200 tons. Production has been rising for three consecutive weeks, mainly due to improved profitability of steel mills, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of some steel mills' hot metal from building materials to plates, and the resumption of production after the end of annual maintenance. The subsequent upward momentum needs to be monitored [3]. - **Demand**: As of January 8, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 24,300 tons to 3.0834 million tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand declined slightly, but year-on-year, it rose by 72,500 tons, indicating that demand still has resilience [3]. - **Inventory**: As of January 8, the total inventory decreased by 28,300 tons to 3.6813 million tons on a weekly basis (social inventory increased by 21,700 tons, and steel mill inventory decreased by 50,000 tons). The total inventory continued to decline, but the decline rate narrowed. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years, and the inventory still exerts pressure on prices [3]. - **Policy**: New regulations on the export license management of steel products have been introduced. In the short term, it will cause fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Addressing involution competition has been listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [3][4]. 市场驱动因素分析 (Market Driving Factor Analysis) - **Bullish Factors**: Decrease in supply-side production, expectation of winter storage demand start, export rush market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore prices [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and price suppression due to inventory accumulation [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. The anti-involution policy still has expectations, providing strong support at the lower end. Although the weekly apparent consumption has slightly declined, it remains relatively strong year-on-year. A slight decline in off-season demand is normal. The warming of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. From the cost side, the strength of coking coal and coke and the sharp rise of iron ore provide strong cost support. The total inventory is relatively high, posing some pressure. On Wednesday, the entire black series rose sharply, with high enthusiasm. The hot-rolled coil futures broke through upwards with heavy volume. On Thursday, it tested the support level during intraday trading. It is recommended to adopt a bullish approach and it is relatively safe to buy on dips. It is expected to continue to rise strongly [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Wednesday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased by 63,008 lots, with a trading volume of 696,880 lots, showing a contraction compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,302 yuan, and the high was 3,348 yuan. It fluctuated within the day with intense washing. From the perspective of the daily moving average, it stood above the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages, showing strength. It closed at 3,317 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton, or 0.48% [1] - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was 3 yuan, close to flat water [2] Fundamental Data - Supply side: As of January 8, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 10,000 tons to 3.0551 million tons compared to the previous week. It was up 16,200 tons year-on-year. The output has rebounded for three consecutive weeks, mainly due to the improvement in steel mill profitability, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of molten iron from building materials to plates by some steel mills, and the resumption of production after the end of the annual maintenance of steel mills. The supply has increased, and the subsequent increase needs to be observed [3] - Demand side: As of January 8, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 24,300 tons to 3.0834 million tons compared to the previous week. The apparent consumption declined slightly, but it was up 72,500 tons year-on-year. The demand still showed resilience [3] - Inventory side: As of January 8, the total inventory decreased by 28,300 tons to 3.6813 million tons week-on-week (social inventory increased by 21,700 tons, and steel mill inventory decreased by 50,000 tons). The total inventory continued to decline, but the decline rate narrowed. The total inventory was at a five-year high. The inventory still exerted pressure on prices [3] - Policy side: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products have been introduced. In the short term, it will lead to fluctuations in exports, an increase in supply, and price pressure. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Deeply rectifying involutionary competition was listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [3][4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Decrease in supply-side output, expectation of the start of winter storage demand, export rush market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and the strength of iron ore as a furnace charge [5] - Bearish factors: The resumption of production of steel mills in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply and demand of hot-rolled coils are both increasing. Last week's data showed that the increase in production was greater than the growth in demand, and the absolute level of inventory was relatively high, which had been digested by the market. Today's sharp rise in the market will drive a certain increase in spot prices and a warming of transactions. The warming of winter storage sentiment may stimulate a wave of demand. The cost side provides strong support, and the anti-involution policy also provides strong support at the bottom. It is recommended to adopt a bullish approach and buy on dips, expecting the price to continue to rise strongly [5] Group 3: Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents Market Review - Futures prices: The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures increased its open interest by 103,802 lots on Wednesday, with a trading volume of 943,506 lots, a significant increase compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,259 yuan, and the high was 3,338 yuan. It closed at 3,332 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton or 2.52%. It stood above the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages [1] - Spot prices: The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a major region, was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was -42 yuan, indicating a slight premium of the futures over the spot [2] Fundamental Data - Supply side: As of December 31, the weekly production of hot-rolled coils increased by 109,700 tons to 3.0451 million tons. Production has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, mainly due to improved profitability of steel mills, increased production enthusiasm, iron water transfer from building materials to plates, and the end of annual maintenance and increased resumption of production [3] - Demand side: As of December 31, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 37,300 tons to 3.1077 million tons. Demand still shows resilience, but future demand data needs to be monitored [3] - Inventory side: As of December 31, the total inventory decreased by 62,600 tons to 3.7096 million tons week-on-week. Social inventory decreased by 80,600 tons, while steel mill inventory increased by 18,000 tons. The inventory is still being depleted, but the depletion rate has narrowed. The total inventory is at a five-year high, still exerting downward pressure on prices [3] - Policy side: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short-term export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness enhancement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability [3][4] - External macro: The events in the United States and Venezuela may bring uncertainties [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Significant decline in supply-side production, expectation of winter storage demand start, export rush, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore prices [5] - Bearish factors: Exceeding expectations in steel mill复产 in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current supply and demand of hot-rolled coils are both increasing. Last week's data shows that the increase in production is greater than the growth in demand. Coupled with the relatively high absolute level of inventory, there is no upward driving force for prices. The destocking of social inventory relies on low-price promotions, and the partial accumulation of steel mill inventory indicates that traders are cautious about winter storage. From the cost side, coking coal is at a low level while iron ore is relatively strong. However, there are still expectations for anti-involution policies, so there is also support at the bottom. It is expected that the short-term trend will be weak and volatile. The daily line has fallen below the 20-day moving average, so beware of further weakening [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures increased its open interest by 26,969 lots on Monday, with a trading volume of 391,613 lots, an increase compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,243 yuan, the high was 3,277 yuan. It decreased in price with increased open interest during the day, closing at 3,248 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.79% [1]. - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,270 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was 22 yuan, close to par [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply side: As of December 31, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 109,700 tons week-on-week to 3.0451 million tons. The output has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, and the rebound was significant compared to last week. This was mainly due to the improvement in steel mills' profitability, which increased production enthusiasm. Additionally, some steel mills reallocated molten iron from building materials to plates, and steel mills ended their annual maintenance and increased the intensity of resuming production, driving the supply to increase. The subsequent increase needs to be observed [4]. - Demand side: As of December 31, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 37,300 tons week-on-week to 3.1077 million tons. The apparent consumption rebounded, indicating that demand still had resilience, but subsequent demand data still needed to be monitored [4]. - Inventory side: As of December 31, the total inventory decreased by 62,600 tons week-on-week to 3.7096 million tons (social inventory decreased by 80,600 tons, and steel mill inventory increased by 18,000 tons, with a total inventory decrease of 62,600 tons). The total inventory continued to decline, but the decline rate narrowed, indicating that demand had good resilience in late December. The increase in steel mill inventory was mainly affected by the end of the month and the New Year's Day holiday. The total inventory was at a five-year high, and inventory still had a suppressing effect on prices [4]. - Policy side: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in the macro - economic aspect. Deeply rectifying involution - style competition was listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5]. - External macro: The events between the United States and Venezuela may have uncertain impacts [6]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: A significant decrease in supply - side production, the expectation of the start of winter storage demand, the rush - to - export market, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and the strength of iron ore as a furnace material [6]. - Bearish factors: Steel mills' resumption of production in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and price suppression due to inventory accumulation [6].