中邮证券研报指出，百济神州上半年实现归母净利润4.5亿元（去年同期为-28.8亿元）、25Q2实现归母 净利润5.4亿元（去年同期为-9.7亿元）。公司同时将全年收入指引从此前的49-53 亿美元上调至50-53亿 美元、全年GAAP经营利润为正的指引不变。25Q2 泽布替尼环比稳定增长，地舒单抗快速放量。公司 为创新药出海龙头企业，全球商业化能力突出、在研管线即将进入收获期，首次覆盖，给予"买入"评 级。 ...

创新药风险调整成功率评估依赖现有临床数据，二期临床阶段可参考一 期数据预测，一期数据良好时，成功率预期可提高至 70%-80%，此方 法虽难量化，但有助于早期投资布局。 中国创新药企海外市场扩展主要通过"借船出海"与"造船出海"两种 模式。"借船出海"依赖与海外企业合作，而"造船出海"则需企业具 备雄厚资金实力，建立海外团队。 中国创新药获海外认可得益于工程师红利，小分子药物研发经验积累， 以及逐渐具备全球竞争力的小分子产品，使其在国际市场获得更多关注 与认可。 License out 交易流程包括寻找合作伙伴、签署保密协议、物料转移协 议、签订意向书、尽职调查及最终许可协议等步骤，并设立联合指导委 员会进行管理，需评估各阶段风险。 中国在大分子药物研发方面具有工程师红利和成本效益优势，工程师能 够高效进行细胞系发酵并筛选稳定抗体，研发速度快且质量高，研发成 本相对较低。 Q&A 创新药的估值体系如何构建？ 创新药的估值体系主要分为三部分：相对估值法、绝对估值法和风险调整。绝 对估值法通常通过现金流折现（DCF）计算每个药品的净现值（NPV）。然而， 在二级市场交流中，相对估值法更为常用。相对估值法包括三个组 ...

Core Viewpoint - The skepticism surrounding the future profitability of Zhongji Xuchuang has led to a mixed market response, with recent stock price movements indicating a lack of confidence despite increased financing activity [1][2][3]. Financing Activity - In August, Zhongji Xuchuang experienced a significant increase in net financing purchases, which was a key driver for its stock price rise. However, in September, while financing continued to grow, the stock price stagnated, suggesting that selling pressure has emerged [5][6]. - The net financing purchases for Zhongji Xuchuang showed fluctuations, with notable figures such as a net purchase of 371,977.60 thousand yuan on September 5, followed by a decline in net purchases in subsequent weeks [6]. Market Sentiment - The stock price of Zhongji Xuchuang has only increased by 1.65% over the past month, which is negligible given its typical volatility of around 5% [3]. - The commentary from analysts and market participants reflects a divided sentiment, with some urging caution regarding the sustainability of profit margins in the face of future capacity expansions [1][3]. Broader Industry Context - Other companies in similar sectors, such as Xinyi Technology and Shenghong Technology, have also seen increased financing but have struggled to maintain upward stock momentum, indicating a potential trend across the industry [5][7]. - The overall market has accumulated a significant amount of speculative financing, particularly in sectors like telecommunications and AI, which could pose risks if market conditions shift [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the announcement by President Trump regarding a new round of high tariffs on various imported products, particularly focusing on the pharmaceutical industry, which will see a 100% tariff on patented and branded drugs starting October 1, 2023, significantly higher than the previous 15% agreement with Europe [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Details and Market Reaction - The new tariffs include a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets and bathroom sinks, a 30% tariff on imported furniture, and a 100% tariff on patented and branded drugs, with exemptions for companies that have manufacturing facilities "under construction" in the U.S. [1][2] - Following the announcement, the innovation drug index and various biotech ETFs saw declines of over 1%, with specific companies like Huahai Pharmaceutical and Baiyue Shenzhou experiencing stock price drops [2][3]. Group 2: Company Responses and Strategies - Many domestic pharmaceutical companies are assessing the impact of the new tariffs, with some indicating that their production capabilities in the U.S. may mitigate the effects. For instance, Huahai Pharmaceutical is evaluating whether its facilities meet the criteria for exemption [4][5]. - Major U.S. pharmaceutical companies like Johnson & Johnson and Eli Lilly have already invested significantly in expanding their domestic production capabilities, with Johnson & Johnson planning to invest approximately $20 billion in North Carolina and Eli Lilly announcing a $270 billion investment for new factories [3][4]. Group 3: Expert Opinions and Future Outlook - Industry experts suggest that the 100% tariff is politically motivated and may not significantly impact domestic innovative drug companies, as many already have manufacturing in the U.S. and the majority of their sales are through partnerships with multinational corporations [6][7]. - The anticipated implementation of a global drug pricing model by the U.S. government could further influence drug pricing and market dynamics, but experts believe that the overall impact on the domestic pharmaceutical industry will be limited [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The innovative drug sector experienced significant volatility due to tariff news, with the Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF (159892) dropping over 2% [1] Group 1: Market Impact - Major holdings such as MicroPort Medical, MicroPort Robotics, and others led the decline, while companies like 3SBio, Alibaba Health, and Zai Lab also saw notable drops [1] - The recent announcement of an overseas exclusive development and commercialization licensing agreement for Ruilong's Trastuzumab, valued at over $1.1 billion, highlights the growing international collaboration in the innovative drug sector [1] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Since 2025, there has been a surge in large-scale overseas business development deals in the innovative drug sector, indicating increasing global recognition of China's innovative drug capabilities [1] - Leading companies are actively seeking partnerships with top global pharmaceutical firms to expedite the translation of research outcomes into marketable products [1] - While short-term export prospects may be affected by tariff changes, the long-term outlook remains strong due to technological advancements, a shift away from internal competition in the pharmaceutical industry, and breakthroughs in AI-driven drug development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a significant transformation driven by technological breakthroughs and demographic changes, leading to a shift from a reliance on license-in to license-out strategies, positioning Chinese companies as key players in the global market [2][4][11]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector is witnessing a surge, with ETFs tracking the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index showing strong performance, indicating a structural change in the industry [1][3]. - Innovation drugs are becoming a major investment theme for 2025, with significant year-to-date gains in related indices, highlighting the leading role of companies like WuXi Biologics and BeiGene [4][5]. - The Chinese pharmaceutical industry now ranks second globally, with approximately 30% of innovative drugs under development worldwide, and a notable increase in the approval rate of new drugs [8][9]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The advent of CRISPR gene editing and AI technologies is revolutionizing drug development, significantly reducing research and development cycles and enhancing the capabilities of Chinese pharmaceutical companies [2][7]. - The emergence of platform technologies such as ADCs, bispecific antibodies, and cell therapies is opening new avenues for drug development, contributing to the increased competitiveness of domestic biotech products [7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market is currently experiencing a revaluation of innovative drug companies, with many leading firms turning profitable and their valuations being reassessed positively [7][11]. - The increase in license-out transactions indicates a shift in the global innovation chain, with Chinese companies now accounting for over 51% of the total transaction value in the BD market [11]. Group 4: Policy and Financial Environment - Supportive policies, including stable medical insurance negotiations and expedited drug approval processes, are fostering an environment conducive to innovation [8]. - The easing of monetary policy, including interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is providing a favorable financing environment for biotech companies, further enhancing their growth prospects [8]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The Hang Seng Medical ETF and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical ETF are emerging as attractive investment vehicles, providing exposure to core assets in the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector [3][15]. - The recent restructuring of the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index has improved its focus on leading companies in the biotech field, enhancing its investment appeal [14][15].

截至2025年9月24日 13:25，上证科创板100指数(000698)强势上涨2.79%，成分股微导纳米(688147)上涨 16.40%，安集科技(688019)上涨14.06%，杰华特(688141)上涨11.95%，中科飞测(688361)，珠海冠宇 (688772)等个股跟涨。科创100ETF基金(588220)上涨2.83%，最新价报1.38元。截至9月23日，科创 100ETF基金最新规模68.95亿，居同类第一。 消息面上，半导体产业链集体冲高。机构指出，短期来看，政策持续加码、行业高景气（半导体周期回 暖、创新药出海）与资金流入形成共振，指数有望延续震荡上行趋势。中长期需关注两个方面：一是三 季报业绩兑现情况，重点跟踪半导体设备、创新药企业的研发转化效率；二是科创100新纳入标的的基 本面改善空间。 科创100ETF基金紧密跟踪上证科创板100指数，上证科创板100指数从上海证券交易所科创板中选取市 值中等且流动性较好的100只证券作为样本。上证科创板100指数与上证科创板50成份指数共同构成上证 科创板规模指数系列，反映科创板市场不同市值规模上市公司证券的整体表现。 科创100ETF基金 ...

引言： 医药行业，始终是一条充满韧性又孕育惊喜的黄金赛道。它既承载着人类对健康最本真的渴望，又汇集 了科技突破与政策变革的时代浪潮。回顾过往十五年，医药板块历经多轮牛熊转换，每一次低谷都在为 下一次爆发蓄力，而每一次崛起，都伴随着产业结构的深刻变革。 当前，随着中国创新药在国际舞台频频"破圈"，政策利好层层释放，人口老龄化带来需求长周期扩张， 医药行业正再次站在时代的聚光灯下。 ●复盘十五年行情：医药板块的周期轮动与涨跌逻辑 医药行业从来都不缺故事，更不缺行情。回顾过去十五年，医药行业经历了多次显著的市场周期，每一 轮牛市都有其独特的驱动因素与市场表现。 ※2009-2010年，"四万亿"政策推动市场反弹，叠加医药行业整改完成、医保目录扩容与支出扩张，行 业上市公司业绩大增，中证申万医药生物指数飙涨148.46%，远超同期上证指数涨幅54.22%，成为当时 市场中的"领涨先锋"（数据来源：Wind，统计区间：2009.1.1-2010.12.31。中证申万医药生物指数代 码：000808.CSI，基日：2004-12-31，发布日期：2012-02-17，成份数量：100，发布机构：中证指数有 限公司；上证指 ...

自去年获得"2024凤凰之星上市公司评选"的"港股最具成长性上市公司"以来，康方生物和泡泡玛特备受资本市场青睐，截至9月21日，股价已分别涨超 150%、450%。 这两家分属不同赛道的企业，用持续攀升的股价，诠释了"凤凰之星上市公司评选"对优质标的的精准预判。这份前瞻性背后，究竟藏着怎样的逻辑？ 标普全球中国区主席、标普信评首席执行官黄直（中）为"2024凤凰之星上市公司评选"获奖企业颁奖 1、"凤凰之星"最具成长性上市公司为什么能股价大涨？ 两家企业分属不同的行业，却走出了相似的股价曲线，这背后并非偶然的市场炒作，而是多重优势共振的结果。 首先，扎实的业绩是两家企业获得资本市场认可的前提。 2025年上半年，康方生物实现营业收入14.12亿元，同比增长33.7%，这一增长源于其持续推进核心产品的商业化进程，如推动卡度尼利、依沃西两款产品被 纳入医保目录。 康方生物管线分布情况 积极推进全球化战略，充分挖掘海外市场潜力，也是两家企业实现规模跃升的重要因素。 具体来看，卡度尼利与依沃西是目前康方生物的出海核心。2022年，康方生物将依沃西以"5亿美元首付款+50亿美元总交易额+低双位数销售分成"交易模式 授权 ...

华鑫证券认为，中国创新药出海是创新成果持续涌现和创新效率驱动的结果，全球新药研发向中国转 移，是不可逆转的产业趋势，虽然在短期内或出现波动，但全年增长的趋势不变。 在创新药出海热潮的强力驱动下，国内创新药板块迎来显著复苏。从中报数据来看，较多创新药企成功 实现扭亏为盈，业绩基本面的改善直接点燃了市场对创新药板块的投资热情，板块估值修复行情延续。 港股医药板块午后拉升，恒生医药ETF（159892）涨超2%，药明合联领涨，诺诚健华、药明生物、药 明康德、晶泰控股等跟涨。 2025年以来，中国创新药领域License-out交易频发。据医药魔方数据，2025年上半年，中国License-out 交易共计72笔，交易总金额较2024年全年高出16%，其中单笔金额超过10亿美元的交易达16笔，重磅交 易的落地提升了市场对创新药出海的信心。 ...