Core Viewpoint - The polyester industry chain has been under price pressure since early September, with PTA futures showing weak performance and prices stabilizing around 4500 yuan/ton after the National Day holiday [1] Supply Side - As of early October, PTA weekly capacity utilization has increased by approximately 7 percentage points compared to the end of August, reaching 77.84%, while PX weekly capacity utilization rose to 88.23%, up about 3.6 percentage points [1][3] - Several major facilities remain offline, with uncertain restart dates, including the 1.2 million ton facility at Sanfangxiang and the 2.25 million ton facility at Yisheng Dalian [3] - There are expectations for maintenance in October for the 1 million ton facility at Sichuan Nengtou and the 2.5 million ton facility at Dushan Energy in November, indicating limited recovery in PTA capacity utilization despite marginal increases [3] Demand Side - As of early October, demand from weaving terminals remains strong, with improved inquiry atmosphere for autumn and winter home textiles and apparel fabrics, although foreign trade orders are still low [4] - The average capacity utilization for long filaments is approximately 91.39%, and for short fibers, it is about 86.96%, both showing slight increases compared to August [4] - The overall demand performance is moderate, with limited new orders during the National Day holiday, leading to a cautious approach in raw material procurement [4] Price and Profitability - From early September to early October, processing profits in the polyester industry chain have decreased, with PX valuations dropping and PTA processing fees remaining low [2] - As of early October, the weighted profit for polyester is a monthly loss of 26 yuan/ton, significantly narrowing from a loss of 80 yuan/ton in August [2] - The expected trading range for PTA futures is between 4400 to 4800 yuan/ton, with spot processing fees anticipated to range from 100 to 300 yuan/ton [4]

Core Viewpoint - The polyester industry chain has been under price pressure since early September, with PTA futures showing weak performance and prices stabilizing around 4500 yuan/ton after the National Day holiday [1] Supply Side - As of early October, PTA weekly capacity utilization has increased by approximately 7 percentage points compared to the end of August, reaching 77.84%. PX weekly capacity utilization rose to 88.23%, up about 3.6 percentage points, while polyester capacity utilization remained stable at 87.8%, a rise of about 1.14 percentage points [1][3] - Several major facilities are still offline, with uncertain restart dates. Facilities that are currently offline include the 1.2 million ton facility at Sanfangxiang, the 1.2 million ton facility at Taiwan Chemical, and the 2.25 million ton facility at Yisheng Dalian, among others. The restart of these facilities is pending [3] - There are expectations for maintenance in October for the 1 million ton facility at Sichuan Energy Investment and the 2.5 million ton facility at Dushan Energy, which may limit the overall increase in PTA capacity utilization [3] Demand Side - As of early October, demand from the weaving terminal remains strong, with improved inquiry atmosphere for autumn and winter home textiles and apparel fabrics. However, foreign trade orders are still relatively low [4] - The average capacity utilization for long filaments is approximately 91.39%, for short fibers is about 86.96%, and for bottle flakes is around 71.16%, all showing slight increases compared to August [4] - The overall demand performance during the National Day holiday was weak, with manufacturers primarily focusing on fulfilling previous orders rather than actively procuring raw materials [4] Market Outlook - The PTA market is expected to continue a dual increase in supply and demand in October, with more uncertainties on the supply side compared to the demand side. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of facility restarts and maintenance, which may adjust supply expectations [4] - The cost side shows limited supply-demand contradictions for PX, with weak crude oil prices. PTA futures prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation trend, with the main contract operating in the range of 4400 to 4800 yuan/ton and spot processing fees between 100 to 300 yuan/ton [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views PTA - The PTA balance shows less - than - expected destocking month - on - month. It maintains a tight balance in September, with minor current supply - demand contradictions. Attention should be paid to the lower support [5][50]. PX - PX is in a tight - balance state for the polyester industry. There are few changes in maintenance, and the balance pressure is low. It should be operated with low - level oscillations, and its elasticity comes from PXN [6][72]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol has a record - low port inventory, and it is difficult to accumulate inventory in the short term. The existing supply is high. With new device commissioning plans, the short - term outlook is cautiously bullish, and it should be treated as a low - buying opportunity during oscillations [7][107]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Attention to the Peak Demand Season Expectation - Terminal orders have shown partial improvement, and the weaving operation rate has slightly increased. The operation rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing are 79% (+7%), 68% (+5%), and 72% (+5%) respectively. Downstream raw material inventory is 10 - 20 days, and orders have slightly improved. The market anticipates a seasonal improvement in the peak season [9]. PTA Tight Balance - **Device Changes**: PTA device maintenance is less than expected. Hengli has one line under maintenance, and the other is undetermined. Dushan Energy is under maintenance, Fuhai Chuang's restart is postponed to mid - September, and new lines of Sanfangxiang are operating stably while the old line will stop after the new one stabilizes. YS Hainan and YS Dahua are under planned maintenance [43][50]. - **Inventory**: As of August 22, PTA social inventory remained stable, with a decrease of 8.3 tons to 212 tons (excluding credit warehouse receipts). The balance in September is tight [44]. - **Supply - Demand**: The PTA balance destocking is slightly less than expected. It maintains a tight balance from August to September. The supply side has device maintenance, and the demand side has stable polyester load and slightly improved weaving orders [50]. PX with Elasticity - **Supply**: The domestic PX load changes little, with a domestic load of 83.3% and an Asian load of 75.6%. Jinling Petrochemical slightly reduced its load, Fuhai Chuang will restart in early September, and Daxie plans to increase its load in September. Overseas, Idemitsu restarted, and Saudi Arabia slightly increased its load [72]. - **Balance**: The PX balance is acceptable, with PXN compressed to around $250 +. It should be operated with short - term oscillations [72]. EG Low Inventory and General Expectation - **Device Changes**: The overall domestic ethylene glycol load is 75%, and the coal - based load is 77%. Satellite's one - line maintenance is postponed to early October. Coal - chemical maintenance slightly increases in September. Overseas, Singapore's 900,000 - ton device's restart is postponed for several months [84][107]. - **Inventory**: As of September 1, the ethylene glycol port inventory in the East China main port area was about 44.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1 tons, reaching a record low. The arrival volume is expected to be neutral in the short term, and the port inventory is expected to remain stable or slightly decrease [102]. - **Supply - Demand**: The ethylene glycol market has a strong reality of low inventory. The inventory is difficult to accumulate in the short term. The supply is high, and the demand has stable polyester load. It should be operated with short - term oscillations [107]. Spread Structure - No specific analysis of the spread structure is summarized in the report other than showing some price charts of different products such as PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc.

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Neutral overall, with a cautiously bullish view on device changes and supply - demand balance [5] - PX: Neutral overall, with a cautiously bullish view on downstream demand [6] - Ethylene Glycol: Neutral overall, with a cautiously bearish view on month - spread and device changes, and a cautiously bullish view on downstream demand [7] 2. Core Views PTA - PTA supply has unexpected maintenance, demand seasonally recovers, the balance improves, and the price recovers. It is greatly affected by sentiment in the short term, and attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities after pullbacks [5] PX - PX inventory pressure is not large, recent supply maintenance plans increase, the expected balance is tight, and the PXN around $270 is slightly high. The current valuation reflects the expectation of fundamental improvement. Pay attention to sentiment changes in the short term and buy on dips [6] Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol has a strong current situation but weak expectations. The near - end low inventory has little pressure to accumulate, the coal - based load is at a high level. It is expected that existing devices will restart and new ones will be put into production in the fourth quarter. There is support from anti - involution and coal. Pay attention to reverse - spread opportunities [7] 3. Summary by Directory Demand Seasonal Improvement - Terminal orders have partial improvement, and the operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing machines have increased by 7%, 5%, and 5% to 79%, 68%, and 72% respectively. Downstream raw material inventory is 10 - 20 days, and orders have slightly improved [9] - As of August 22, the polyester load is around 90% (+0.6%), the polyester cash flow is slightly in the red, and the average polyester inventory is around 17 days. Polyester is approaching the peak season, demand has seasonal improvement, and raw materials are strong due to "anti - involution", slightly compressing polyester profits. Last week's sales were good, and polyester overall reduced inventory, with the current inventory being neutral [13] - Polyester industry chain profits are average. Filament profits are slightly in the red, FDY losses are relatively serious, bottle - chip and slice profits are average, and staple - fiber profits are neutral [14] PTA Unexpected Maintenance Increase - In August, PTA maintenance volume was high, and maintenance plans increased in September. YS Dahua and YS Hainan are under maintenance, Jiaxing Petrochemical extended its maintenance and restarted, and Fuhua will restart in mid - September. Hengli Huizhou's two lines are under maintenance and reducing load, and Dushan Energy No. 2 is under planned maintenance [34] - As of August 22, PTA social inventory remained stable, (excluding credit warehouse receipts) inventory decreased to 220 tons, a decrease of 5 tons. The balance in September may continue to reduce inventory [35] - PTA supply - demand balance: In August - September, with unexpected supply improvement and better demand, the supply - demand fundamentals are good, but the price has reflected the supply improvement. Pay attention to macro - sentiment and buy on dips [40] PXN Strength - US gasoline inventory decreases seasonally, the gasoline cracking spread during the peak season remains stable, and the octane number performance is average. Currently, the economics of blending oil is average, and the short - process profit in Asia is acceptable [47][49] - The US - Asia arbitrage spread remains stable. After considering the 25% US tariff on Japan and South Korea, the spread space is not large, and xylene is exempted. North America's demand for aromatics has significantly decreased in 2025, and South Korea's exports of aromatics to the US have remained low since April [55] - PX domestic load changes little, with the domestic load at 84.6% and the Asian load at 76.3%. Tianjin Petrochemical is under maintenance, CNOOC Huizhou slightly reduced its load. There are rumors of maintenance plans for Zhejiang and Lianyungang suppliers. In Asia, Thailand's THAI OIL restarted, Japan's Idemitsu's one line is under maintenance, and Saudi Arabia's Petro Rabigh device restarted [57] - PX is in a loose balance with PTA maintenance. With the expectation of PX maintenance, the PXN remains around $270. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities after pullbacks [59] Ethylene Glycol Situation - As of August 22, the overall ethylene glycol load is stable at 73%, and the coal - based load is 77%. The coal - chemical load is high, and there are some unexpected situations in some coal - chemical loads. It is expected that the coal - chemical load will slightly decrease in September [69] - Domestic ethylene glycol device changes: The domestic overall load is not low, and there are coal - chemical maintenance plans. Shenghong restarted, Tianying and Wonen restarted, Shanxi Weihua and Shenhua Yulin are under maintenance, and Tianye has a maintenance plan in September. Overseas, Singapore's Aster is under maintenance, and the restart of the cracking device is postponed. US Lotte and Malaysia's Petronas restarted [72][84] - As of August 11, the ethylene glycol port inventory in the main ports of East China is about 50 tons, a decrease of 4.7 tons month - on - month. The current inventory is at a low level. From August 18 - 24, the actual arrival was 6.1 tons, and the port reduced inventory. From August 25 - 31, the expected arrival is about 5.4 tons, and the port is expected to slightly reduce inventory in the short term. Polyester factories' ethylene glycol raw material inventory days are 12 days [96] - Ethylene glycol has a strong current situation but weak expectations. The near - end low inventory has little pressure to accumulate, the coal - based load is at a high level. It is expected that existing devices will restart and new ones will be put into production in the fourth quarter. There is support from anti - involution and coal. Pay attention to reverse - spread opportunities [101]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the LPG market are still weak overall, with expected overall supply growth, some support from Shandong's chemical demand, but weak combustion demand [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price Changes - In the civil gas segment, prices in Shandong increased by 40 to 4550, remained stable in East China at 4505, and decreased by 40 to 4710 in South China; ether - post C4 decreased by 40 to 4640, and the cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4505 [1]. - The PG futures price declined with the drop in oil prices. The basis of the 07 contract is currently 513; the 07 - 08 spread is 84, and the 07 - 09 spread is 150 [1]. - The import cost increased, PP prices rose, and PP production profit decreased. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window opened [1]. Weekly Changes - From Monday to Thursday, the PG futures price fluctuated upwards, and on Friday, it significantly declined due to the drop in oil prices. The basis of the 07 contract strengthened, and the spreads of 07 - 08 and 07 - 09 also strengthened [1]. - In the external market, FEI and MB slightly declined, while CP slightly increased; the oil - gas ratios in North Asia and the US fluctuated, and the oil - gas ratio in the Middle East declined. The official June CP price decreased, with propane and butane at 600/570 (-10/-20) dollars [1]. Fundamentals - Arrivals slightly increased, chemical demand rose, civil gas sales were sluggish, and overall port inventories decreased; refinery inventories generally increased [1]. - Supply increased by 2.46% in terms of commercial volume, and it is expected to continue to rise, while arrivals are expected to decrease [1]. - The PDH operating rate rebounded to 63.26% (+2.11pct), production margins declined, and the processing profits of FEI and CP are similar. It is expected that the PDH operating rate will continue to rise next week [1]. - The alkylation operating rate and commercial volume increased, and profitability rebounded significantly. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to climb next week [1]. - MTBE prices first rose and then fell, production remained basically flat, and the profits of gas - fraction etherification and isomerization etherification increased significantly. It is expected that MTBE supply will increase, and there may be some replenishment demand after the Dragon Boat Festival, which will support C4 demand [1]. - As temperatures rise, combustion demand is expected to decline [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The current supply - demand situation of the main varieties in the market shows different characteristics. For the livestock and soft commodities sectors, the supply of pigs is strong and demand is weak in the short - term, while the sugar market is in a state of weak oscillation. In the energy - chemical sector, the oil price has a complex supply - demand relationship and is expected to be under pressure in the medium - term, and the PVC market has marginal improvement in fundamentals but lacks a strong upward drive [1][2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Variety Livestock and Soft Commodities Sector - **Pig**: The short - term supply pressure is large, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. The pig price center is moving down, and the 07 and 09 contracts on the futures market are still bearish. It presents a volatile pattern with limited upside and a bottom for downside. It is recommended that the breeding side sell out - of - the - money put options or participate in the cumulative sales option products [1][2]. - **Sugar**: Both the short - term and medium - term trends are weakly oscillating. International factors such as Brazil's new - season sugar supply increase and India's production reduction co - exist. Domestically, the production increase expectation has been fulfilled, and there may be additional imports. It is recommended to wait and see [3][4]. Energy - Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, pay attention to the phased rebound, and in the medium - term, it will run under pressure. The supply side has certain supporting factors, and the demand side has some positive signals, but the inventory situation is complex. It is recommended to buy futures contracts and buy put options for protection [4][5]. - **PVC**: It shows a range - bound oscillation in the short - term, and lacks an upward drive in the medium - term. The cost has rebounded, supply has increased slightly, demand has some speculative factors, and inventory has decreased. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on PVC at an appropriate time [6][7].