Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) indicates a strong upward trend, driven by significant inflows and positive market sentiment towards the sector, particularly in light of ongoing central bank policies and global demand for gold and battery materials [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 10, 2025, the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) rose by 2.19%, marking its fourth consecutive increase, with a trading volume of 240 million yuan [1]. - The CSI Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metal Index surged by 2.14%, with notable gains from constituent stocks such as Guocheng Mining (+9.99%), Hunan Gold (+6.21%), and Shengxin Lithium Energy (+5.90%) [1]. - Over the past 21 trading days, the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) has seen a net inflow of 884 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Central Bank and Gold Demand - The central bank's latest report shows that as of the end of October, its gold reserves increased to 7.409 million ounces, up by 30,000 ounces from September, marking the 12th consecutive month of accumulation [1]. - Long-term forecasts suggest that interest rate cuts and policies from former President Trump may drive gold prices higher, with central bank purchases providing a supportive floor for prices [1]. Group 3: Battery and Storage Demand - According to CITIC Securities, the energy storage policy in 2025 is expected to drive an unexpected increase in demand for energy storage batteries, with improvements in battery capacity and trade-in policies boosting demand for power batteries [1]. - The global demand for lithium salt is anticipated to continue exceeding expectations, supported by the ongoing growth in energy storage and power battery sectors [1]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Recent market trends indicate a bullish sentiment towards cyclical sectors, particularly in coal, non-ferrous metals, certain chemicals, new energy, photovoltaic industry chains, and memory storage [2]. - Non-ferrous metals, steel, and building materials are highlighted as potential cyclical investment opportunities based on supply-side changes and free cash flow levels [2]. Group 5: Index Composition - The CSI Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metal Index comprises 50 listed companies selected from the non-ferrous metals and non-metallic materials sectors to reflect the overall performance of the industry in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [2]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Zijin Mining, Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt, China Aluminum, Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, and China Rare Earth [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Demand side: High - level consumption of power and energy - storage batteries continues, product prices in all links of the lithium - battery industry chain are strong, and the sentiment in the equity market is optimistic. It is expected that the production of battery materials in November will reach the annual peak, driving the continuous growth of lithium carbonate demand [12]. - Supply side: The probability of a delay in supply recovery at the mining end is relatively high, which alleviates the short - term supply release pressure. The domestic lithium carbonate inventory reduction is expected to continue until the end of the year, with strong spot support [12]. - Capital side: When prices fall, short - sellers' profit - taking is obvious, and the willingness of the industry to hedge increases after the price rebound. It is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate in a short - term range. It is recommended to pay attention to the trend of ore prices, the production schedule of lithium - battery materials in December, and changes in the atmosphere of the equity market [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Periodic and Spot Market**: On November 7, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index was reported at 79,927 yuan in the morning, up 9.5% from the end of September. The closing price of LC2601 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 82,300 yuan, up 1.88% this week and 12.9% from the end of September [12]. - **Supply**: On November 6, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate reported by SMM was 21,534 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. In October 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.7%, a year - on - year increase of 54.6%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase in the first 10 months was 43.2%. In September 2025, Chile exported 15,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year decrease of 13% and a month - on - month decrease of 6%. In October, Chile exported 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 56% [12]. - **Demand**: According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, from October 1st to 31st, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market nationwide were 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 10.27 million, a year - on - year increase of 23% [12]. - **Inventory**: On November 6, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 123,953 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,405 tons (- 2.7%). The consumption growth rate is higher than that on the supply side, and inventory depletion is accelerating. On the same day, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 26,420 tons [12]. - **Cost**: On November 7, the quotation of Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate reported by SMM was 920 - 960 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 4.57% this week [12]. 2. Periodic and Spot Market - On November 7, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index was reported at 79,927 yuan in the morning, up 9.5% from the end of September, and the average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,150 yuan. The closing price of LC2601 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 82,300 yuan, up 1.88% this week and 12.9% from the end of September [12][20]. - The average discount of the exchange - standard electric carbon trading market was - 100 yuan, up 50 yuan this week. The net short - position of the lithium carbonate contract's main force decreased [23]. - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,200 yuan, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide was 4,820 yuan [27]. 3. Supply Side - On November 6, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate reported by SMM was 21,534 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. In October 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.7%, a year - on - year increase of 54.6%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase in the first 10 months was 43.2% [32]. - In October, the output of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene was 57,150 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.1%, a year - on - year increase of 74.0%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase in the first ten months was 74.6%. The output of lithium carbonate from lithium mica was 12,720 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.8%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase in the first ten months was 17.8% [35]. - In October, the output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes increased by 15.7% month - on - month to 13,840 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to October was 9.9%. The output of lithium carbonate from the recycling end was 8,550 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.0%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to October was 25.2% [38]. - In September 2025, China imported 19,596 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month decrease of 10.3% and a year - on - year increase of 20.5%. From January to September, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was about 173,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. In September, Chile exported 15,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year decrease of 13% and a month - on - month decrease of 6%. In October, Chile exported 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 56% [41]. 4. Demand Side - The battery field dominates lithium demand. In 2024, the global consumption accounted for 87%. The main growth point of future lithium salt consumption still depends on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while the traditional application fields have limited proportion and weak growth [45]. - In September 2025, the global sales volume of new - energy vehicles was about 2.1 million. From January to September, the total sales volume of new - energy vehicles in Europe was 2.716 million, a year - on - year increase of 27.6%. From January to September, the total sales volume of new - energy vehicles in the United States was 1.232 million, a year - on - year increase of 11.4% [48][51]. - According to the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in September, the total output of power and other batteries in China was 151.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 8.3% and a year - on - year increase of 35.4%. From January to September, the cumulative output of power and other batteries in China was 1,121.9 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 51.4% [54]. - From January to September, the cumulative output of domestic lithium iron phosphate increased by 47.0% year - on - year, and the output of domestic ternary materials increased by 15.4% year - on - year. From October to November, the output of battery materials will reach the annual peak, driving the continuous growth of lithium carbonate demand [57]. 5. Inventory - On November 6, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 123,953 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,405 tons (- 2.7%), and inventory depletion accelerated. On the same day, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 26,420 tons [64]. - The inventory of cathode materials is at a high level, and downstream demand is booming. The consumption of power batteries and energy - storage batteries is strong, and the inventory is at a recent low [67]. 6. Cost Side - On November 7, the quotation of Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate reported by SMM was 920 - 960 US dollars per ton. Recently, the inventory pressure of lithium ore has been relieved. If the price of lithium salt回调, pay attention to the price - holding willingness of mining enterprises [74]. - In September, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 521,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.0% and a month - on - month increase of 10.6%. From January to September, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 4.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines has begun to ease recently, and the lithium ore imported is expected to increase significantly [77].

Market Overview - The A-share market saw most major indices decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.23% closing at 3969.25 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.37% closing at 13223.56 points, the ChiNext Index up by 1.03% closing at 3166.23 points, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index up by 0.23% closing at 1390.39 points [1] - Overall, there were more gainers than losers in the market, with 3375 stocks rising and 1902 stocks falling, while 161 stocks remained unchanged. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 18723 billion, a decrease of 434 billion from the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the leading sectors included power equipment, coal, commercial retail, environmental protection, and light industry manufacturing, with gains of 3.40%, 1.39%, 1.22%, 1.06%, and 0.93% respectively. Conversely, the sectors that experienced declines included computer, non-bank financials, telecommunications, media, and beauty care, with losses of 0.97%, 0.49%, 0.43%, 0.41%, and 0.33% respectively [1] Concept Sector Performance - The top-performing concept sectors today included ultra-high voltage, continuous boards, lithium iron phosphate batteries, charging piles, and power equipment, among others. These sectors showed significant gains, while semiconductor silicon wafers, rare earths, and cybersecurity experienced pullbacks [2][12]

Group 1 - Core viewpoint: The company is making strategic moves in lithium battery production and exploring new applications in emerging markets, while maintaining strong financial performance [1][2] Group 2 - On August 19, the company signed a cooperation agreement with Taiwan Nengyuan, and on October 13, the board approved a cash investment of $20 million in the Greenmech Indonesia project [1] - The Q3 2025 report shows revenue of 2.088 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.72%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 180 million yuan, up 57.17% [1] - For the first three quarters, total revenue reached 5.814 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.17% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 513 million yuan, an increase of 82.05% [1] - The company is steadily advancing lithium battery production capacity, with a significant increase in profitability driven by the lithium battery business [1] - The Malaysian lithium battery project is successfully in production and ramping up capacity, while overseas projects will enhance the cost advantage of raw materials [1] - The company is collaborating with Greenmech on an Indonesian nickel mine project to strengthen global competitiveness [1] - Q4 is expected to be a peak season for battery business, with anticipated increases in shipments and profitability [1] Group 3 - The company is focusing on forward-looking explorations in the power battery sector, including BBU and robotics applications [2] - In the BBU field, the company has completed mass production of all-tab products and is in the customer validation phase [2] - A joint venture has been established with Nengyuan Technology for BBU development, aiming to penetrate overseas supply chains [2] - The company has become a key supplier for Yushu Technology in the robotics sector [2] - LED product export approvals have been delayed due to external trade environment changes, impacting short-term export business [2] - The company plans to invest in an LED project in Malaysia, expecting to significantly enhance overseas supply capabilities [2] - Q4 is anticipated to show significant recovery in LED business due to proactive export arrangements [2] Group 4 - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 8.33 billion, 9.63 billion, and 11.27 billion yuan, with net profits of 761 million, 944 million, and 1.162 billion yuan respectively [2] - EPS is projected to be 0.66, 0.82, and 1.01 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 26, 21, and 17 times [2]

Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce reported that from January to September 2025, the actual use of foreign capital in China amounted to 573.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4% [2] - The Shanghai Waigaoqiao Port's Haitong International Automobile Terminal achieved a record high automobile export volume of 1.109 million units in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.2% [3] - The Hong Kong Innovation and Technology Bureau is promoting the development of the electric vehicle industry chain in Hong Kong, aiming to transform research advantages into economic growth [4] - Chery Automobile announced a purchase tax subsidy plan, offering a maximum subsidy of 15,000 yuan per vehicle for eligible users due to changes in purchase tax policies [5] - Huawei and Dongfeng are accelerating the implementation of the DH project, focusing on deep integration of technology and establishing a regular coordination mechanism [6] - Jianghuai Automobile Group and CATL signed a long-term strategic cooperation agreement to jointly develop advanced power battery products and explore overseas markets [7] - NIO's battery swap service has surpassed 90 million swaps, with an average daily swap volume exceeding 100,000 [8] - BMW Group announced the establishment of its only IT center in China, located in Nanjing, to enhance operational efficiency and focus on AI and digital twin technologies [9] International News - U.S. automotive factories may face significant production disruptions within 2 to 4 weeks due to chip supply issues [10] - Porsche plans to cease production of the gasoline-powered Macan model by 2026, with a potential gap in offerings until the release of its electric successor [11] - Toyota is preparing to import vehicles produced in the U.S. back to Japan, including models not previously available in the Japanese market [12] - Sharp announced plans to launch an electric vehicle by the 2027 fiscal year, leveraging its parent company Foxconn's platform [13] Commercial Vehicles - Huawei is accelerating the electrification of heavy-duty trucks, reducing charging time from one hour to 15 minutes [14] - Suzhou Jinlong plans to transfer 63% of its shares to Jinlong Automobile as part of internal resource integration [15] - FAW Liberation celebrated the achievement of over 10,000 vehicle sales in the Jiangsu region, highlighting its strong market presence [16] - Dongfeng launched three commercial vehicle models tailored for the Saudi market, showcasing its commitment to international expansion [18]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Haike New Source Material Technology Co., Ltd. reported a significant revenue increase of 43.17% year-on-year, reaching 3.653 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by new production facilities and increased sales volume [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first three quarters was 3.653 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 43.17% [1] - The increase in revenue is attributed to the commissioning of new production facilities and a rise in production and sales volume [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Haike New Source benefits from the dual drivers of the power battery and energy storage markets, with strong sales during the peak seasons and favorable policies boosting the energy storage sector [1] - The company has seen a surge in orders from overseas markets, contributing to the increased production capacity of battery cells [1] Group 3: Research and Development - The company has been focusing on long-term development, with research and development expenses reaching approximately 121 million yuan, which is higher than the same period last year [1] - Prepayments at the end of the reporting period increased by 73% compared to the beginning of the year, indicating a proactive approach to securing future supply and production capabilities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The third-quarter performance of CATL slightly exceeded expectations, driven by operational cost optimization and a surge in energy storage demand, leading to an upgrade in target prices for both H-shares and A-shares, while reaffirming a "Buy" rating due to its dual leadership in the power battery and energy storage sectors [1] Group 1: Q3 Performance Highlights - In Q3, CATL achieved revenue of 104 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 18.55 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 41% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12%, surpassing Bank of America's expectations by 6% and market consensus by 3% [2] - The gross margin for Q3 was 25.8%, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.9 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating strong cost control capabilities [2] - Total battery shipments in Q3 were approximately 180 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 40% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20%, with power batteries accounting for 80% and energy storage batteries for 20% [2] Group 2: Capacity Expansion - CATL plans to increase battery production by 41% year-on-year and 4% month-on-month in October, with high capacity utilization driven by strong energy storage demand [3] - The company is focusing on three main areas for capacity expansion: domestic energy storage capacity, overseas production bases, and technological advancements to reduce costs [3][4] Group 3: Demand Structure - The demand for commercial vehicle batteries has doubled since 2025, accounting for 20% of total EV battery shipments in Q3, indicating a strong growth engine for the power battery segment [5] - Energy storage demand is robust due to the widening price difference between peak and valley electricity, leading to a significant increase in the return on independent energy storage projects [5] Group 4: Financial Forecast Adjustments - Bank of America has raised CATL's core financial indicators for 2025-2027, with EPS for 2025 adjusted from 14.92 yuan to 15.34 yuan, and net profit for 2025 expected to reach 70 billion yuan [6] - Total shipments are projected to reach 630 GWh in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 26.2% [6] Group 5: Valuation and Target Prices - Bank of America has raised the target price for CATL's H-shares from 570 HKD to 605 HKD and for A-shares from 467 yuan to 495 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 35% from the current A-share price [7][8] - The valuation adjustments reflect the growth potential driven by energy storage and commercial vehicle demand, as well as new product strategies [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company has experienced strong growth in both production and sales, with a significant increase in capacity expansion [1] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 441.6 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 21.99% compared to the previous year [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to reach 68.6 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 35.10% [2] - The company is entering a new round of capacity expansion, with plans to increase production capacity significantly in the coming years [6] Financial Performance Forecast - Revenue (in million yuan) is forecasted as follows: - 2024: 362,013 - 2025: 441,613 - 2026: 511,267 - 2027: 582,252 [2] - Net profit (in million yuan) is projected as follows: - 2024: 50,745 - 2025: 68,554 - 2026: 80,152 - 2027: 94,115 [2] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 24.44% in 2024 to 26.05% in 2027 [2] Production and Sales Insights - The company achieved a production of over 490 GWh in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant increase in demand driven by stable growth in power and unexpected surges in energy storage [6] - The company’s production in Q3 2025 was nearly 190 GWh, marking a 20% increase from the previous quarter [6] - The sales structure remains stable, with a domestic to international sales ratio of approximately 7:3 [6] Capacity Expansion Plans - The company is initiating a new capacity expansion cycle, with plans to add over 100 GWh of energy storage capacity by the end of 2025 [6] - New facilities are being established in Hungary and Spain, with an Indonesian project expected to commence production in the first half of 2026 [6] Profitability Outlook - The company’s profitability is expected to remain stable, with a projected EPS of 15.02 yuan in 2025 and 17.57 yuan in 2026 [2] - The report anticipates that the company’s net profit margin will improve from 14.9% in 2024 to 17.2% in 2027 [2]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电池 宁德时代（300750） 2025 年三季报点评：盈利亮眼，业绩持续高 增可期 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 400,917 | 362,013 | 422,604 | 534,947 | 636,930 | | 同比（%） | 22.01 | (9.70) | 16.74 | 26.58 | 19.06 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 44,121 | 50,745 | 68,996 | 86,240 | 106,551 | | 同比（%） | 43.58 | 15.01 | 35.97 | 24.99 | 23.55 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 9.67 | 11.12 | 15.12 | 18.90 | 23.35 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 37.90 | 32.95 | 24.24 | 19.39 | 15.69 | [Tabl ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the automotive and auto parts industry, particularly for new energy vehicles (NEVs) with a retail sales forecast of 1.4 million units for 2025 [5]. Core Insights - In September, retail sales of passenger cars reached a record high of 2.241 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and a month-on-month increase of 11.0% [3]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in retail sales rose to 57.8%, up 5 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The total sales of power and energy storage batteries in September reached 146.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.2% [4]. - The average battery capacity for new energy vehicles was 55.0 KWh, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 2.0% [4]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicle Sales - In September, retail sales of passenger vehicles were 2.241 million units, with wholesale sales at 2.803 million units, showing year-on-year growth of 6.3% and 12.4% respectively [3]. - Cumulative retail sales for the first nine months of 2025 reached 17.005 million units, a 9.2% increase year-on-year [3]. New Energy Vehicle Performance - Retail sales of new energy vehicles in September were 1.296 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 15.4% [3]. - Cumulative retail sales for new energy vehicles in the first nine months of 2025 reached 8.866 million units, a 24.4% increase year-on-year [3]. Battery Market Insights - The power battery installation volume in September was 76.0 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 39.5% [4]. - The sales volume of power batteries was 110.5 GWh, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 75.5% [4]. Market Trends - The promotional intensity for new energy vehicles in September was maintained at a high level of 10.2%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year [5]. - The report highlights a shift in the market towards reduced price competition and stable promotions, with 23 models experiencing price cuts in September [5].