Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a log futures daily report dated May 22, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - After May, log demand will enter the traditional off - season, with expected reduced shipments in the next few weeks. New Zealand's shipments will decrease seasonally, and the current FOB price continues to decline, maintaining a weak balance in the fundamentals. With a significant expected decrease in arrivals this week, the futures market is expected to fluctuate at a low level [4] Group 4: Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: On May 21, log2507 was at 780.0 yuan/m³ (up 3.5 yuan/m³ or 0.45% from May 20), log2509 at 794.0 yuan/m³ (up 3.0 yuan/m³ or 0.38%), and log2511 at 796.0 yuan/m³ (down 0.5 yuan/m³ or - 0.06%) [2] - Spreads: The 7 - 9 spread was - 14.0 (up 0.5), the 9 - 11 spread was - 2.0 (up 3.5), and the 7 - 11 spread was - 16.0 (up 4.0) [2] - Basis: The 07 contract basis was - 30.0 yuan/m³ (down 3.5), the 09 contract basis was - 44.0 yuan/m³ (down 3.0), and the 11 contract basis was - 46.0 yuan/m³ (up 0.5) [2] - Spot prices: Most spot prices remained stable, except for the 4A medium - sized radiata pine in Taicang Port, which decreased by 10 yuan/m³ or - 1.28% [2] - Foreign quotes: The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine was 110 dollars/JAS m³, and the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce was 123 euros/JAS m³, both unchanged [2] - Import cost: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.207 yuan (down 0.01), and the import theoretical cost (15% over - length) was 780.07 yuan (down 1.24) [2] Group 5: Supply - Monthly supply: Port freight volume in April was 200.3 million m³ (up 39.0 million m³ or 24.17% from March), and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 66.0 (up 8.0 or 13.79%) [2] Group 6: Inventory - Weekly inventory: As of February 9, China's total log inventory was 341.00 million m³ (down 2.0 million m³ or - 0.58%), with inventories in Shandong at 189.90 million m³ (up 3.1 million m³ or 1.66%) and in Jiangsu at 111.86 million m³ (down 2.5 million m³ or - 2.18%) [3] Group 7: Demand - Weekly demand: As of May 16, China's daily average log出库 volume was 6.14 million m³ (down 0.01 million m³ or 0%), with Shandong at 3.20 million m³ (down 0.10 million m³ or - 3%) and Jiangsu at 2.22 million m³ (up 0.07 million m³ or 3%) [3][4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current downstream processing plants are making inventory purchases based on rigid demand. With the recent continuous decline in log spot prices, the downstream delivery has improved in the short term. It is expected that the overall spot prices will stabilize in the future, but the terminal market remains sluggish. The sustainability of price support and trading volume need to be further evaluated. In the medium to long term, under the dual pressure of weakening real estate demand and increasing port inventories, the log spot market still faces challenges [5]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended that aggressive investors short against the previous high for single - side trading, pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread for arbitrage, and adopt a wait - and - see approach for options trading [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - **Price**: The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Rizhao this week is 760 yuan per cubic meter, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.30%. The price of 4 - meter medium - A logs in Taicang is 780 yuan per cubic meter, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.27% [5]. - **Supply**: In April 2025, China imported 5.34 million cubic meters of logs and sawn timber. From January to April, the import volume was 19.245 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0% [5]. - **Demand**: From January to May 2022, the national new housing construction area was 520 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 30.6%. Among them, the new residential construction area was 380 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 31.9%. Last week, the average daily delivery volume of logs at 13 ports was 71,600 cubic meters, remaining unchanged from the previous week [5]. - **Import Cost**: The CFR main price of radiata pine this month is 108 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.3% [5]. 3.1.2 Strategies - **Single - side**: The overall spot prices are stable but weak, and the medium - to - long - term fundamentals are also generally loose. Aggressive investors can short against the previous high [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [6]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [6]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Log Supply - The expected shipment volume of New Zealand logs to China, Japan, South Korea, and India in March 2025 was 2.0025 million cubic meters, an increase of 390,000 cubic meters from the previous month, with a month - on - month increase of 24.17%. The expected number of ships was 66, an increase of 8 from the previous month, with a month - on - month increase of 13.79% [14]. 3.2.2 Log Inventory - In April, the average inventory of national coniferous logs was 3.55 million cubic meters, a decrease of 2,500 cubic meters from the average inventory of 3.5525 million cubic meters in March, a decrease of 0.07%. Among them, the average inventory of radiata pine increased by 30,000 cubic meters, North American timber decreased by 80,000 cubic meters, and spruce decreased by 20,000 cubic meters [17]. 3.2.3 Log Demand - The average daily delivery volume of logs at 13 national ports remained at 71,600 cubic meters, the same as last week, indicating stable market demand but lack of short - term upward momentum. The daily delivery volume in Shandong decreased by 7.80%, while that in Jiangsu increased by 8.12% [23]. - As of May 6, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 58.95%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 60.47%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01 percentage points, and that of housing construction projects was 51.38%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.84 percentage points [23]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Log Prices - In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs in Rizhao this week is 760 yuan per cubic meter, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.32% [30]. - In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs in Taicang this week is 780 yuan per cubic meter, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.70% [30]. - In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - grade spruce logs in Rizhao this week is 1060 yuan per cubic meter, remaining unchanged from last week and a year - on - year decrease of 6.19% [30]. 3.3.2 Downstream Timber Prices - The spot price of 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber squares this week is running at XX. The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1270 yuan per cubic meter, and that in the Jiangsu market is 1280 yuan per cubic meter [33]. - The spot price of 3000*40*90 spruce/white pine timber squares this week is running at XX. The mainstream transaction price in both the Shandong and Jiangsu markets is 1670 yuan per cubic meter [33]. 3.3.3 Import Log Costs - In May 2025, the quoted price range of New Zealand's radiata pine in the outer market is 105 - 110 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, about 7 - 8 US dollars per JAS cubic meter lower than in April [40]. - In April 2025, the outer - market price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter 20 spruce logs is 120 euros per JAS cubic meter, remaining unchanged from the previous month [40].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The log spot price continues to decline, the new round of FOB quotes is lowered, there is still supply pressure in April, and demand support is insufficient. The current futures price is at a neutral - low level with strong cost support, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of [810 - 850]. Meanwhile, the tariff upgrade during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival has led to weak macro sentiment, and market sentiment disturbances should be watched out for [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Price Changes**: On April 3, compared with April 2, the price of log 2507 increased by 1.0 yuan to 829.0 yuan, with a 0.12% increase; log 2509 decreased by 3.0 yuan to 840.0 yuan, a - 0.36% decrease; log 2511 decreased by 3.5 yuan to 845.5 yuan, a - 0.41% decrease [2]. - **Spread and Basis Changes**: The 7 - 9 spread increased by 4.0 to - 11.0; the 9 - 11 spread increased by 0.5 to - 5.5; the 7 - 11 spread increased by 4.5 to - 16.5. The 07 contract basis decreased by 1.0 to - 49.0; the 09 contract basis increased by 3.0 to - 60.0; the 11 contract basis increased by 3.5 to - 65.5 [2]. - **Spot Price Changes**: Spot prices at ports such as Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on April 3 compared with April 2. The FOB price of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A decreased by 6 dollars to 115 dollars per JAS cubic meter, a - 4.96% decrease, while the FOB price of spruce 11.8 - meter remained unchanged at 120 euros per JAS cubic meter [2]. - **Cost Changes**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased by 0.03 to 7.306 yuan, and the import theoretical cost decreased by 38.64 yuan to 825.35 yuan, a - 4% decrease [2]. Supply - **Monthly Supply**: As of February 28, port freight volume increased by 66.8 million cubic meters to 197.9 million cubic meters compared with December 31, a 50.98% increase. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 9 to 58, an 18.37% increase [2]. Inventory - **Weekly Inventory**: As of March 28, the log inventory in major ports in China was 360 million cubic meters, a decrease of 4 million cubic meters compared with March 21, a - 1.10% decrease. In Shandong, it was 189.8 million cubic meters, a decrease of 2.5 million cubic meters, a - 1.30% decrease; in Jiangsu, it was 128.45 million cubic meters, a decrease of 3.0 million cubic meters, a - 2.30% decrease [2][3]. Demand - **Weekly Demand**: As of March 28, the average daily log outbound volume in China was 6.7 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.28 million cubic meters compared with March 21, a 4% increase. In Shandong, it was 3.30 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.08 million cubic meters, a - 2% decrease; in Jiangsu, it was 2.76 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.35 million cubic meters, a 15% increase [3].

国泰君安期货·黑色与建材 原木周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 期货从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年4月6日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 供应 02 需求及库存 03 行情走势 04 其他 05 市场回顾 新西兰船期数据 国内主港库存 国内主港日均出货量 行情走势 现货价格行情 主流材种区域价差 树种、规格间价差 海运费 汇率 ◆ 其他影响因素：航运指数方面，本周波罗的海干散指数再度回落。截至4月4日当周，波罗的海干散货指数（BDI） 录得1489点，较上周-113点（-7.1%），其相关分项灵便型海运指数BHSI录得613点，较上周-0.2%；上海出口集 装箱运价指数（SCFI）录得1,392.78点，较前一期数据+2.6%。汇率方面，本周美元指数继续回落，截至当周，美 元兑人民币汇率较上周+0.15%，美元兑新西兰元汇率较上周+2.0%。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 综述 ◆ 现货价格走势：对于主 ...