Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the volatility of oil prices, with a potential slight decrease expected on July 15, amidst fluctuating international oil prices and geopolitical factors [1][2] Group 2 - International oil prices experienced significant fluctuations, initially rising over 5% due to geopolitical tensions, followed by a sharp decline due to unexpected increases in oil inventory, leading to a reassessment of energy demand [2] - The International Energy Agency's announcement of tighter global oil supply and a 35% tariff on Canadian oil provided a boost to oil prices, reversing the downward trend [2] Group 3 - Predictions for domestic oil price adjustments indicate a potential decrease of approximately 145 yuan per ton, translating to a reduction of 0.11 to 0.13 yuan per liter for gasoline [3] - The volatility in international oil prices may affect the final adjustment, with the possibility of the decrease being less than 100 yuan per ton if prices continue to rise before the adjustment [3] Group 4 - A review of the first 13 oil price adjustments in 2023 shows a mixed trend, with 6 increases and 5 decreases, leading to a cumulative reduction of only 95 yuan per ton for gasoline and 90 yuan per ton for diesel [4] - The overall trend indicates a narrowing of the price reduction despite some earlier significant decreases, with recent adjustments resulting in increased consumer costs [4] Group 5 - Regional price variations for 95 and 98 octane gasoline are noted, with higher prices in the southwest due to complex terrain and transportation costs, while the northwest benefits from lower costs due to refinery concentration [5][12] - Specific prices for 95 octane gasoline range from 7.66 yuan per liter in the northwest to 8.06 yuan per liter in the southwest, while 98 octane gasoline prices vary significantly across regions, with Guangdong reaching 10.00 yuan per liter [10][14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term strategy for oil prices is to wait and see as they are in the process of bottom - building through fluctuations, and the medium - term strategy is to take a short position [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent significant declines in US commercial crude oil inventories are due to a combination of factors including slower production growth, high refinery operations, and reduced net imports. The wildfires in Canada previously led to supply reduction, but with the end of the wildfires, Canadian pipeline imports are expected to recover, and inventory reduction may slow down. In the medium term, as US crude oil production peaks, the US is unlikely to bring substantial supply - side increments, and future North American supply may mainly rely on the growth of Canadian oil sands production capacity [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 55 cents to $64.92 per barrel, a 0.85% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for August delivery rose 54 cents to $67.68 per barrel, a 0.80% increase. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 0.77% at 505 yuan per barrel [1] - As of the week ending June 23, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE reached 19.12 million barrels, a 3.8% increase from the previous week, hitting a five - week high. Light distillate inventory decreased by 1.332 million barrels to 6.738 million barrels, medium distillate inventory increased by 0.151 million barrels to 2.044 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory increased by 1.882 million barrels to 10.338 million barrels [1] - Brazil will raise the mandatory blending ratio of biodiesel in diesel from 14% to 15% and the mandatory blending ratio of ethanol in gasoline from 27% to 30% [1] - For the week ending June 20 in the US, EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 5.836 million barrels (expected - 0.797 million barrels, previous value - 11.473 million barrels); EIA Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 0.464 million barrels (previous value - 0.995 million barrels); US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.944 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.44 million barrels per day from the previous week; commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 5.836 million barrels to 415 million barrels, a 1.39% decrease [1] - US President Trump said that the US will hold talks with Iran next week. He believes the military conflict between Israel and Iran has ended, but it may break out again. He doesn't think Iran will resume its nuclear program. The US will not give up pressuring Iran and will not take over oil [1] Investment Logic - The recent significant decline in US commercial crude oil inventories is due to slower production growth, high refinery operations, and reduced net imports, especially the supply reduction caused by Canadian wildfires. With the end of the wildfires, Canadian pipeline imports are expected to recover, and inventory reduction may slow down. In the medium term, as US crude oil production peaks, the US is unlikely to bring substantial supply - side increments, and this year's US crude oil export data has reflected this feature, with net export volume of shipments no longer contributing to the increment [2] Strategy - Short - term: Wait and see as oil prices are in the process of bottom - building through fluctuations; Medium - term: Take a short position [3] Risk - Downside risks: Faster OPEC production increase rhythm, macro black - swan events - Upside risks: Tighter supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela), large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced mixed results on June 25, with urea and red dates leading gains of over 2% [1] - The SC crude oil futures contract fell by over 8%, while high-sulfur fuel oil dropped more than 5% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1374.19 points, down 16.51 points or 1.19% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Urea and Red Dates - Urea futures saw a strong rebound with a 2.47% increase, recovering losses from earlier in the week due to increased demand and inventory depletion expectations [2] - Concerns over weather conditions affecting red date production led to a rise of over 2%, reaching a four-month high, despite current low consumption levels [2] Group 3: Other Commodities - Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon both increased by over 1%, with ferrosilicon reaching a one-month high [3] - The overall market sentiment improved, contributing to gains in coke, stainless steel, industrial silicon, and nickel, all closing up by over 1% [3] Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices continued to decline due to easing geopolitical tensions, with SC crude oil futures down 8.13% [4] - Despite a decrease in U.S. API crude oil inventories, concerns about supply disruptions remain, limiting the extent of price declines [4] - The outlook for oil prices remains cautious, with potential for further declines due to OPEC+ production increases and high tariffs affecting global demand [4] Group 5: Shipping and Freight Rates - The shipping market for the European route saw its fifth consecutive day of declines, with a drop of 3.07% in the main contract [5] - Freight rates for routes from Shanghai to European ports have decreased compared to the previous week, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [5] - The expectation of price increases by airlines has diminished due to weakened market sentiment and competition among carriers [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall view on the energy and chemical sector is to treat it with an oscillatory mindset, with various products having different outlooks such as "oscillate", "oscillate weakly", etc., based on the specific situation of each product [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have become the core factor driving oil prices, with high uncertainty. The ongoing Iran - US nuclear negotiations are accompanied by military threats. If geopolitical concerns are disproven, the pressure of increased production may drive oil prices down. However, if military action occurs, it could provide significant upward potential for oil prices. The chemical industry shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with a weak outlook [1][2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks have increased, leading to intensified oil price fluctuations. SC2507 closed at 495.7 yuan/barrel on June 12, with a change of +3.68%. Brent2508 closed at 70.34 dollars/barrel, with a change of -0.62%. The Middle East situation is the key factor, and the oil price is in a high - risk stage, expected to oscillate after a rapid rise [4] - **LPG**: Cost support has increased, and PG has rebounded following crude oil. However, domestic combustion and chemical demand remain weak, with limited upward rebound space, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [8] - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices rise, the asphalt cracking spread continues to decline. The asphalt futures closed at 3527 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in East China, Northeast, and Shandong were 3670 yuan/ton, 3900 yuan/ton, and 3725 yuan/ton respectively [6] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: After a sharp rise, it has fallen back. The main contract closed at 2997 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [6] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price oscillates following crude oil. It is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, with low valuation, and is expected to follow crude oil fluctuations [7] - **Methanol**: Port inventories continue to accumulate, and it oscillates. The spot price in Taicang on June 12 was 2370 yuan/ton, and the port inventory increased to 65.22 tons on June 11 [15] - **Urea**: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and the market is operating weakly. The factory and market low - end prices on June 12 were 1730 and 1715 yuan/ton respectively, and the daily production was 20.74 tons [15] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethane imports may return to normal, and EG has adjusted significantly. The spot price on June 12 was around 4315 yuan/ton, and the port inventory was about 63.4 tons on June 9 [11] - **PX**: Supply restarts quickly, and attention should be paid to PTA production and polyester start - up. The CFR price in Taiwan on June 12 was 818 dollars/ton. The Asian PX operating rate will further increase, and the domestic market is in a de - stocking cycle [10] - **PTA**: Supply increases while demand decreases, and the situation is gradually weakening. The spot price on June 12 was 4855 yuan/ton, and the polyester sales were weak. The 250 - ton PTA device in Shandong has reached full capacity [10] - **Short Fibre**: Production cuts support processing fees, and the absolute value fluctuates with raw materials. The sales rate on June 9 was 60% on average, and the export growth rate from January to April was 33% [11][12] - **Bottle Chip**: The production is at a high level with oversupply, and low processing fees will continue. The processing fees are expected to oscillate between 300 - 400 yuan/ton [13][14] - **PP**: Although the oil price rebounds, the fundamentals are still under pressure, and it oscillates. The mainstream transaction price in East China on June 12 was 7100 yuan/ton, and the supply is still increasing [16][17] - **Plastic**: The raw material end provides a boost, but maintenance is needed to balance supply and demand, and it oscillates. The mainstream LLDPE price on June 12 was 7170 yuan/ton, and the downstream demand is weak [16] - **Styrene**: Driven by macro - expectations, it rebounds. The spot price in East China on June 12 was 7780 yuan/ton. However, the rebound drive may not be sustainable, and the supply may increase while the demand is weak [10] - **PVC**: Market sentiment has cooled, and it operates weakly. The benchmark price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China was 4790 yuan/ton, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation in the long - term [18] - **Caustic Soda**: The cost center has shifted downwards, and it operates weakly. The 32% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2719 yuan/ton, and the demand is weak while the supply is expected to increase [18] (2) Variety Data Monitoring (i) Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spreads and their changes, such as SC (M1 - M2) being 4 with a change of 0, Brent (M1 - M2) being 0.8 with a change of - 0.05, etc. [19] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, the basis of asphalt is 198 with a change of - 61, and the warehouse receipt is 91510 [20] - **Inter - Variety Spread**: There are also data on inter - variety spreads and their changes, like 1 - month PP - 3MA being - 141 with a change of - 14 [21]

Core Viewpoint - The OPEC monthly report indicates a downward revision in the expected increase of oil supply from non-OPEC+ countries for this year, now projected to rise by 800,000 barrels per day, down from the previous estimate of 900,000 barrels per day [1] Group 1 - The expected increase in oil supply from non-OPEC+ countries for this year is now 800,000 barrels per day [1] - The previous estimate for the increase in oil supply was 900,000 barrels per day [1] Group 2 - It is anticipated that exploration and production investments from non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries will be reduced by 5% in 2025 [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to announce an increase of 410,000 barrels per day for June, marking the second consecutive month of supply increase [1] - The firm maintains its price forecast for Brent and WTI crude oil at $63 and $59 per barrel for the remainder of 2025, respectively [1] - For 2026, Goldman Sachs projects prices to be $58 for Brent and $55 for WTI [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content Core Viewpoints This week, as the supply of crude oil tightened and oil prices rose, asphalt prices also increased. Shandong's spot prices rose slightly, and the futures price strengthened marginally. With low production and a slight increase in shipments, factory inventories continued to decline while social inventories increased, resulting in overall stable inventory levels and a generally positive outlook. The supply in the north was tight, while that in the east and south was relatively loose. The positives were low inventory levels, scarce and expensive heavy - oil raw materials, and a decrease in April's production schedule. The negatives were the lack of demand improvement, weak spot prices in the east and south, and Sinopec's price cuts. The fundamentals improved slightly, with short - term stability expected. Inventory is still projected to gradually increase at a low level in the first half of the year. The price is expected to fluctuate with crude oil, and attention should be paid to long - positions in distant contracts such as the 09 contract. Also, monitor the actual inventory situation and the impact of US sanctions on raw materials [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily Review Shandong's spot prices remained stable, with a market reference price of 3510 - 3700 yuan/ton. The asphalt futures price fluctuated, and the crack spread profit was at a neutral level. Gasoline and diesel prices in Shandong rose slightly. The daily asphalt production was 6.3 (+0) million tons [1] Weekly Data | Date | East China Spot Low | Shandong Spot Low | Northeast Spot Low | Futures Price | Main Basis | Spread between Futures Main and Venezuelan Maya Crude Cost | South Korea CIF East China | South Korea's East China Price in RMB | Shandong Coking Feedstock | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/04/02 | 3600 | 3560 | 3900 | 3658 | -58 | -67 | 465 | 4086 | 4630 | | 2025/04/03 | 3650 | 3550 | 3900 | 3610 | 20 | 138 | 465 | 4091 | 4630 | | 2025/04/07 | 3650 | 3350 | 3850 | 3376 | 54 | 219 | 465 | 4096 | 4630 | | 2025/04/08 | 3650 | 3340 | 3800 | 3321 | 99 | 236 | 465 | 4099 | 4400 | | 2025/04/09 | 3550 | 3250 | 3800 | 3232 | 98 | - | 465 | 4101 | 4410 | | Change | -100 | -90 | 0 | -89 | -1 | - | 0 | 2 | 10 | [1]