Core Viewpoint - The OPEC monthly report indicates a downward revision in the expected increase of oil supply from non-OPEC+ countries for this year, now projected to rise by 800,000 barrels per day, down from the previous estimate of 900,000 barrels per day [1] Group 1 - The expected increase in oil supply from non-OPEC+ countries for this year is now 800,000 barrels per day [1] - The previous estimate for the increase in oil supply was 900,000 barrels per day [1] Group 2 - It is anticipated that exploration and production investments from non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries will be reduced by 5% in 2025 [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to announce an increase of 410,000 barrels per day for June, marking the second consecutive month of supply increase [1] - The firm maintains its price forecast for Brent and WTI crude oil at $63 and $59 per barrel for the remainder of 2025, respectively [1] - For 2026, Goldman Sachs projects prices to be $58 for Brent and $55 for WTI [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content Core Viewpoints This week, as the supply of crude oil tightened and oil prices rose, asphalt prices also increased. Shandong's spot prices rose slightly, and the futures price strengthened marginally. With low production and a slight increase in shipments, factory inventories continued to decline while social inventories increased, resulting in overall stable inventory levels and a generally positive outlook. The supply in the north was tight, while that in the east and south was relatively loose. The positives were low inventory levels, scarce and expensive heavy - oil raw materials, and a decrease in April's production schedule. The negatives were the lack of demand improvement, weak spot prices in the east and south, and Sinopec's price cuts. The fundamentals improved slightly, with short - term stability expected. Inventory is still projected to gradually increase at a low level in the first half of the year. The price is expected to fluctuate with crude oil, and attention should be paid to long - positions in distant contracts such as the 09 contract. Also, monitor the actual inventory situation and the impact of US sanctions on raw materials [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily Review Shandong's spot prices remained stable, with a market reference price of 3510 - 3700 yuan/ton. The asphalt futures price fluctuated, and the crack spread profit was at a neutral level. Gasoline and diesel prices in Shandong rose slightly. The daily asphalt production was 6.3 (+0) million tons [1] Weekly Data | Date | East China Spot Low | Shandong Spot Low | Northeast Spot Low | Futures Price | Main Basis | Spread between Futures Main and Venezuelan Maya Crude Cost | South Korea CIF East China | South Korea's East China Price in RMB | Shandong Coking Feedstock | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/04/02 | 3600 | 3560 | 3900 | 3658 | -58 | -67 | 465 | 4086 | 4630 | | 2025/04/03 | 3650 | 3550 | 3900 | 3610 | 20 | 138 | 465 | 4091 | 4630 | | 2025/04/07 | 3650 | 3350 | 3850 | 3376 | 54 | 219 | 465 | 4096 | 4630 | | 2025/04/08 | 3650 | 3340 | 3800 | 3321 | 99 | 236 | 465 | 4099 | 4400 | | 2025/04/09 | 3550 | 3250 | 3800 | 3232 | 98 | - | 465 | 4101 | 4410 | | Change | -100 | -90 | 0 | -89 | -1 | - | 0 | 2 | 10 | [1]