Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets slightly declined, and global oil product inventories slightly increased. [7] - The EU passed the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, lowering the price cap on Russian oil. Iran may hold nuclear negotiations with major European powers next week, and whether to restart nuclear negotiations with the US depends on the US attitude. [7] - On the supply side, the Kurdish oil field was attacked, with about 200,000 barrels per day of production at risk of interruption. [7] - Fundamentally, global oil product inventories slightly increased, while US commercial crude oil inventories decreased. Diesel inventories at major global trading hubs continued to decline, reaching historical lows, and the cracking spread of European diesel led the profit growth on the product side. [7] - After Independence Day, US gasoline apparent demand dropped significantly, and the global gasoline cracking spread has been fluctuating recently. This week, global refinery profits strengthened on a week - on - week basis, and the product side remained relatively strong. [7] - In China, refinery operations fluctuated. After the increase in operations in June, gasoline and diesel inventories at refineries increased significantly, and refinery profits weakened on a week - on - week basis, leaving limited room for further boosting operations. [7] - During the peak season of actual crude oil demand, the escalation of sanctions against Russia and the marginal tightening of Iranian crude oil supply support the crude oil inter - month structure. However, the peak - season factors have been largely realized, and the monthly spreads have shown a fluctuating pattern recently. [7] - In the medium term, the absolute price of crude oil faces downward pressure due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the contradiction between non - OPEC production and the near - term diesel inventory. [7] Summary by Directory 1. Price Data - From July 14 to July 18, 2025, WTI crude oil prices decreased by $0.20, BRENT decreased by $0.24, and DUBAI decreased by $0.07. [3] - SC crude oil prices increased by 15.20 yuan, and OMAN decreased by $0.08. [3] - Other related products such as domestic gasoline, domestic diesel, Japanese naphtha, and Singapore fuel oil also showed corresponding price changes. [3] 2. Daily News - The third round of Russia - Ukraine negotiations will be held in Istanbul. [3] - Iran may hold nuclear negotiations with major European powers next week, and whether to restart nuclear negotiations with the US depends on the US attitude. [4][5] - A new round of Gaza cease - fire negotiations in Doha is expected to reach an agreement within two weeks. [4] - The EU passed the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, lowering the price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $47.6 per barrel, and imposing other sanctions on Russian banks and energy facilities. [5][6] - Angola plans to increase oil exports to 1.03 million barrels per day in September, and an Iraqi oil field was attacked by a drone. [6] 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week of July 11, US crude oil exports increased by 761,000 barrels per day to 3.518 million barrels per day, and domestic production decreased by 10,000 barrels to 13.375 million barrels per day. [6] - US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.859 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a decrease of 0.91%. [6] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.262 million barrels per day, a 1.1% decrease compared to the same period last year. [6] - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories decreased by 300,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels, a decrease of 0.07%. [6] - US commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.379 million barrels per day, an increase of 366,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. [6] - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China decreased by 0.26%, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly by 1.17%. Chinese refinery production showed a decrease in gasoline and an increase in diesel, with gasoline inventories increasing and diesel inventories decreasing. The comprehensive profits of major refineries and local refineries both declined on a week - on - week basis. [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week's view on crude oil: Hold long positions. There may still be opportunities to challenge $80 per barrel in the third quarter [6]. - Brent and WTI may still have opportunities to challenge $80 per barrel in the third quarter, and SC may challenge 580 yuan per barrel. In the medium - to - long term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices. This year, Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel [6]. - Logic: Excluding geopolitical and trade - war uncertainties, the market is bullish in the first half of the third quarter, mainly due to OPEC+ increasing production less than expected, a decline in U.S. shale oil production, and a relatively low global inventory center. In the medium - to - long term, it is bearish, mainly due to the large long - term oversupply pressure caused by increased production from OPEC+, Brazil, Guyana, Norway, etc [6]. - Valuation: The short - term valuation is at a medium level, and there is still a chance of a further increase [6]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading - buy on dips in the short term and conduct band trading; sell on rallies in the long term and conduct trend trading. For inter - period trading, focus on going long on the 09 contract and short on the 10 or 11 contracts. For inter - commodity trading, stay on the sidelines [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - U.S. long - term Treasury yields fluctuate significantly, and the gold - oil ratio rebounds [12]. - Overseas inflation rises, and the service PMI rebounds. The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing recovers [18][19]. 3.2 Supply - Global diesel supply remains tight. Refineries are restricted by the increasing proportion of light crude oil and have difficulty increasing production. Geopolitical conflicts and sanctions disrupt the supply chain. OPEC+ is accelerating the exit from production cuts, but non - OPEC+ supply growth may lead to a supply surplus risk in Q4 2025 [6]. - OPEC+ core member countries: Iraq has a production of 3.96 million barrels per day with a shortfall of 130,000 barrels per day; the UAE reduces the allocation of Murban crude oil in July; Saudi Arabia's production in June is 9.75 million barrels per day, exceeding the target by 380,000 barrels per day and leading the OPEC+ production increase plan in August [7]. - Non - OPEC+ countries: U.S. crude oil production reaches a record high of 13.47 million barrels per day in April, but the profitability of WTI exports to Europe and Asia has deteriorated. Kazakhstan's CPC Blend production reaches a record high, exacerbating the surplus of light oil in Europe. Venezuela's production and exports are expected to decline [8]. 3.3 Demand - Seasonal peak demand continues. Diesel demand is rigid, but jet fuel growth diverts medium - distillate production capacity. Asian processing volume is at a high level, but increased exports alleviate the surplus. Gasoline demand is weak, and the LPG substitution effect weakens naphtha demand [6]. - Different regions: Asian demand is affected by factors such as tariffs and the substitution of Venezuelan crude oil. European refineries are cautious due to conflicts, and North American refinery closures force policy adjustments [10]. 3.4 Inventory - U.S. commercial inventories rebound, and Cushing region inventories stabilize but are significantly lower than historical averages. European crude oil inventories rebound, while diesel and gasoline inventories decline. Domestic refined - oil profit margins are restored [62][76][78]. 3.5 Price and Spread - The North American basis rebounds slightly, the month - spread declines, SC is stronger than the external market, and the month - spread strengthens. Net long positions decline [82][83][85].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2506 is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend on Wednesday, due to the combined effects of increasing supply and weakening demand[5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Time - Cycle Analysis - Short - term (within a week): The trend of crude oil 2506 is volatile[1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The trend of crude oil 2506 is volatile and weak[1]. - Intraday: The trend of crude oil 2506 is volatile and weak[1][5]. 3.2 Price and Market Performance - The domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract closed significantly lower by 2.07% to 478.0 yuan/barrel on Tuesday night[5]. 3.3 Driving Logic - Supply: After OPEC+ oil - producing countries increased the daily crude oil supply by 411,000 barrels in May 2025, they may further increase production in June, and Kazakhstan may not strictly abide by the compensatory production - cut plan, increasing supply pressure[5]. - Demand: In May, North American crude oil demand is in the off - season, refinery operating rates are at a low level, consumer demand is insufficient, and inventory accumulation pressure is prominent[5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The fuel oil still follows the fluctuations of crude oil. Due to sanctions on Russia and Iran, heavy - oil resources are in short supply, and the recovery of power - generation demand in South Asia during summer supports the crack spread. Given the strength of the high - sulfur market structure in Singapore and the price difference between the domestic and foreign markets, the domestic fuel oil price may have some room for repair, but short - term crude oil fluctuations need to be closely monitored. If the crude oil rebound ends, the fuel oil may continue to weaken [11][12] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Chain Situation 3.1.1 Crude Oil Market Latest Dynamics - Supply side: OPEC+ agreed to increase crude oil supply by 411,000 barrels per day starting from May, which theoretically exerts downward pressure on crude oil prices. However, the market believes this increase is mainly to improve member compliance with the production - cut agreement, so the impact is limited. An explosion in Iran disrupted port operations and reduced the shipping efficiency of the Strait of Hormuz by 25%, causing international oil prices to rise by 3.2% - 3.8% in a single day, supporting fuel oil prices [3] - Demand side: The IEA's report shows that in 2024, the global oil demand growth was only 0.8%, and its share in global energy demand fell below 30% for the first time, with a significant slowdown in growth. Recently, as the economy recovers, the energy demand of industries such as logistics has increased, supporting crude oil prices [3] 3.1.2 Fuel Oil Market Performance - **Spot price**: On April 28, the benchmark price of fuel oil was 5,475 yuan per ton, down from last week. The benchmark price of fuel oil 380CST was 452 US dollars per ton, a 10.32% decrease from the beginning of the month [4] - **Supply, demand and inventory**: In Singapore, fuel oil inventory rose by 1.239 million barrels to 24.126 million barrels, an 18 - week high, with a 5.4% month - on - month increase. The average on - land fuel oil inventory in April was about 22.55 million barrels per week, higher than the average of 18.68 million barrels per week in March. In the ARA region, fuel oil inventory decreased by 2.4% to 1.16 million tons [5][6] 3.2 Disk Situation - The fuel oil showed a volatile trend this week. The main contract closed at 2,991 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 1.22%. The highest price was 3,008 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 2,967 yuan per ton. The position decreased by 13,077 lots from April 21 to April 25 [10]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The crude oil market faces many uncertainties. With short - term inventory pressure being relatively low, factors such as ongoing US - China tariff issues, progressing US - Iran negotiations, and the OPEC+ production policy meeting on May 5th will affect the market. Short - term trading is recommended [2][37]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - SC2506 had a slight rebound. It opened at 489, reached a high of 506, a low of 482, and closed at 496, with a weekly increase of 5.4 or 1.10% [3]. Chapter 2: Price Influence Factor Analysis - **OPEC**: In March, OPEC's overall daily crude oil production was 26.78 million barrels, a decrease of 78,000 barrels per day from February. Iraq, UAE production decreased, while Iran and Kazakhstan production increased. OPEC+ agreed to increase oil supply by 411,000 barrels per day in May, three times the original plan, and will gradually cancel the 2.2 million - barrel - per - day production cut by 2026. However, six countries need to cut production by 378,000 barrels per day in May according to the compensation plan. There are disputes among members regarding production quota compliance, and OPEC+ plans to accelerate production increase, which adds pressure to crude oil supply [5][6][8]. - **Russia**: In 2024, Russia's GDP grew by 3.9%, and its crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In March 2025, production decreased to 8.963 million barrels per day. Russia's 2025 - 2028 oil and gas export revenue forecasts have changed compared to previous expectations. There are talks about a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement, but Russia has doubts about some details [10][11]. - **US**: As of the week ending April 18, US daily crude oil production was 13.46 million barrels, a decrease of 2,000 barrels from the previous week and an increase of 360,000 barrels from the same period last year. The four - week average daily production was 13.49 million barrels, 3% higher than the same period last year. EIA predicts that US crude oil production will peak at 14 million barrels per day in 2027 and then decline. Global oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been lowered [12][13]. - **Americas**: OPEC and IEA have both lowered their forecasts for non - OPEC and non - OPEC+ oil supply growth in 2025 and 2026 [20]. - **Inventory**: In December 2024, OECD oil and crude product inventories decreased by 51.35 million barrels from the previous month. As of the week ending April 18, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 4.565 million barrels according to API data, while EIA data showed an increase of 244,000 barrels. Product inventories decreased, indicating a recovery in demand [21]. - **Consumption**: OPEC, IEA, and EIA have all lowered their global oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026. Refinery processing fees are low, and refinery operating rates are at a low level [25][27][29]. - **Geopolitics**: The US has imposed new sanctions on Iran and threatened bombing. Iran's crude oil production and exports are affected. The US and Iran held the third - round indirect negotiations in Muscat, Oman, and Iran is cautiously optimistic about the nuclear - issue negotiations [34][36]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy The short - term inventory pressure of crude oil is not significant, but the market still faces many uncertainties. Short - term trading is recommended [37].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices experienced slight fluctuations as of April 25, 2025, with Brent and WTI prices at $65.80 and $63.02 per barrel respectively [7][22] - OPEC+ may accelerate the exit from voluntary production cuts in June, raising concerns about supply increases [7] - Kazakhstan's energy minister indicated that national interests would take precedence over OPEC+ interests, further intensifying supply concerns [7] - The market faces multiple uncertainties, including tariffs and geopolitical tensions involving the US, Iran, and Russia-Ukraine negotiations [7] Oil Price Summary - As of April 25, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $65.80 per barrel, down $0.46 (-0.69%) from the previous week; WTI crude futures settled at $63.02 per barrel, up $0.61 (+0.98%) [22] - Russian Urals crude spot price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, while Russian ESPO crude price decreased by $0.32 (-0.51%) to $62.28 per barrel [22] Offshore Drilling Services - As of April 21, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs was 381, an increase of 1 from the previous week; the number of floating drilling rigs was 141, also up by 1 [26] US Oil Supply - As of April 18, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.46 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.02 million barrels per day from the previous week [42] - The number of active drilling rigs in the US increased by 2 to 483 as of April 25, 2025 [42] - The number of fracturing fleets in the US rose by 5 to 205 as of April 25, 2025 [42] US Oil Demand - As of April 18, 2025, US refinery crude oil processing volume was 15.89 million barrels per day, an increase of 325,000 barrels per day from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 88.10%, up 1.8 percentage points [53] US Oil Inventory - As of April 18, 2025, total US crude oil inventory was 841 million barrels, an increase of 712,000 barrels (+0.08%) from the previous week [64] - Strategic oil inventory was 397 million barrels, up 468,000 barrels (+0.12%); commercial crude oil inventory was 443 million barrels, up 244,000 barrels (+0.06%) [64] Related Companies - Key companies in the industry include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [1]