Report Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil (long - term) [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Iron ore (short - term), Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Logs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Bitumen, Shanghai stocks, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Styrene, Cotton (domestic, long - term), Corn (near - term), Soybean (far - month C01) [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Nickel, Stainless steel, Steel, Coke, Coking coal, Coke breeze, Rapeseed oil, Cotton (domestic, short - term), Sugar, Pulp, Live pigs, PE, PVC, Caustic soda, LPG, Container shipping secondary line [1] Core Views The report provides trend judgments and logical analyses for various commodities in different sectors. Market conditions are influenced by multiple factors such as macroeconomic data (e.g., US non - farm payrolls), geopolitical situations (e.g., Middle East tensions), supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. Different commodities show different trends, including upward, downward, and oscillating movements, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant factors for each commodity [1]. Summary by Industry Macroeconomic and Financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, market trading volume gradually shrinks slightly, and with mediocre domestic and international positive factors, there is resistance to upward breakthrough, and it may show an oscillating pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Market uncertainties remain. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate mainly. Attention should be paid to tariff developments [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Base Metals**: Due to factors such as the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, high prices suppressing downstream demand, and inventory changes, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, etc., have downward risks. Nickel prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - **Stainless Steel**: After an oscillating rebound, the sustainability needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to raw material changes and actual steel - mill production [1] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a downward risk, and polysilicon is affected by supply - side reform expectations and market sentiment [1] - **Lithium Hydroxide**: Supply has not been reduced, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital gaming. The price oscillates [1] Ferrous Metals - **Steel and Related Products**: Macro uncertainties remain. With raw material price weakening, social inventory slightly declining, and steel - mill production reduction news boosting confidence, the market situation is complex. The sustainability of stainless - steel rebound needs to be observed [1] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes oils to follow the decline of crude oil. In the long term, international oil demand increases, and the far - month contracts of palm oil are bullish [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums. In the long term, macro uncertainties are strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio and production [1] - **Corn and Soybeans**: Corn is affected by policy - based grain releases and price differences. Soybeans have different trends for near - and far - month contracts, depending on factors such as supply - demand and trade policies [1] - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp has low valuation and macro - positive factors. Logs are in the off - season, and supply decline is limited [1] - **Live Pigs**: With the continuous repair of pig inventory, the market shows a certain stability [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation and OPEC +'s unexpected production increase, crude oil, fuel oil, etc., have downward risks [1] - **Petrochemical Products**: PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and production - reduction expectations [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR rubber is under pressure due to factors such as OPEC's production increase and high basis [1] - **Plastics and Chemicals**: PE, PVC, caustic soda, etc., show different trends due to factors such as maintenance, demand, and market sentiment [1] - **LPG**: Affected by factors such as price cuts, production increases, and seasonal demand, it has downward space [1] Other - **Container Shipping**: It is expected that the freight rate will reach its peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend from July to August. The subsequent shipping capacity is relatively sufficient [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that domestic demand will insulate the Indian steel market from the impact of tariffs, allowing it to remain unaffected [1] Group 2 - The Indian steel industry is expected to benefit from strong domestic consumption, which is projected to support growth despite external pressures [1] - The article suggests that the resilience of the Indian steel market is attributed to robust infrastructure development and increasing demand from various sectors [1]

Group 1 - The World Economic Forum's 16th Annual Meeting of the New Champions, also known as the "Summer Davos Forum," was held in Tianjin from June 24 to June 26 [1] - A majority of economists surveyed believe that current U.S. economic policies will have a lasting impact on the global economy, with 87% predicting delays in strategic business decisions and increased recession risks [3] - Huang Yiping, Dean of the National School of Development at Peking University, emphasized the need for more proactive fiscal policies in the face of economic uncertainty [3] Group 2 - Huang Yiping highlighted the importance of distinguishing between short-term and long-term fiscal policies, advocating for constraints on government spending to avoid sustainability issues [3] - The concept of fiscal sustainability was discussed, indicating its significance for the functioning of government and the achievement of national development strategies [4] - Huang also pointed out the necessity to boost domestic demand and consumption in China, given the changing dynamics of global markets [4] Group 3 - The chief economist's briefing indicated that artificial intelligence is expected to drive growth, but 47% of respondents anticipate job losses as a result [5]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis suggests that the Canadian economy's 2.2% GDP growth in the first quarter does not indicate positive developments in the new tariff era, and it is insufficient to compel the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates on June 4 [1] Economic Growth Analysis - The 2.2% GDP growth was primarily driven by pre-tariff effects on exports and inventory accumulation, while domestic demand remains weak [1] - Continuous monitoring of second-quarter data is necessary to determine if there is further deterioration in domestic demand [1] Interest Rate Outlook - The analyst expects the Bank of Canada to maintain a "dovish hold" policy but anticipates potential rate cuts in July, October, and December if signs of economic weakness persist [1] - If consumer spending and investment do not improve, combined with trade policy uncertainties, the central bank may need to implement multiple rate cuts to stimulate the economy [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Japan's domestic demand has seen growth in the first quarter, while external demand has been negatively impacted due to increased imports [1]

Core Insights - Iron ore futures prices are rising due to positive signs in trade negotiations and strong domestic demand [1] Group 1 - The increase in iron ore futures prices suggests a potential new wave of price growth in the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Financial consulting firm Continuum Economics predicts that the Bank of Japan will maintain its interest rate at 0.5% during the May meeting and will not change its forward guidance [1] Group 1: Economic Context - The uncertainty brought by U.S. tariffs is impacting Japan's economy, creating a dilemma for the Bank of Japan [1] - The anticipated negative impact of U.S. auto tariffs on the Japanese economy is significant [1] Group 2: Inflation and Wage Growth - Inflation continues to rise, with wage negotiations in Tokyo pushing wage expectations to grow over 5% [1] - If wage growth can quickly translate into domestic demand, the Bank of Japan may find it challenging to justify further delaying interest rate hikes [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy Implications - The Bank of Japan faces difficulties in proving that further postponement of interest rate hikes is reasonable if inflationary pressures are not cost-push [1]

日本财务大臣警告：国内需求相当疲软，日本尚未 战胜通缩 日本财务大臣加藤胜信（Katsunobu Kato）最新警告称，尽管日本正在经历价格上涨，而且其他趋势似 乎是积极的，但是日本尚未战胜通缩。 据英国《金融时报》当地时间3月23日报道，Kato在接受采访时表示： "我认为我们需要谨慎判断日本是否已摆脱通缩，不仅要看消费者价格，还要全面考察基础 价格和背景因素，目前我们的判断是日本尚未战胜通缩。" 虽然价格在上涨，但这主要代表"错误类型"的通胀——由日元疲软和高商品成本推动，而非 工资上涨和消费需求形成的良性循环。 数据显示，日本消费者价格连续35个月保持在日本央行2%的目标之上，2月不含新鲜食品的消费者价格 指数同比上涨3%。 上周五（3月21日），声称拥有700万会员的日本工会联合会宣布，企业承诺涨薪5.46%，为连续第二年 的涨幅超过5%，创1991年以来的最高水平。 但实际工资增长停滞，消费者信心依然疲软。根据研究机构Teikoku Databank的数据，今年2月企业将成 本转嫁给消费者的比例较去年7月有所下降。 Kato表示，向正常经济的转型过程取决于要确保长期工资增长超过价格增长。他认为： 大 ...