记者今天从国家发展改革委了解到，1月20日24时国内成品油调价窗口将开启。受国际油价上涨影响，国内汽、柴油价格将上调，这也是2026年成品油价 格首次上调。 1月20日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格每吨均上调85元。全国平均来看： 92号汽油、95号汽油、0号柴油每升均上调0.07元。 记者给您算了笔账， 用92号汽油加满50升油箱将多花3.5元。 国家发展改革委价格监测中心： 国际油价波动或将加剧 关注" 新华网财经 "视频号 更多财经资讯等你来看 往期推荐 机器人将再度登上央视春晚！ 马斯克，索赔1340亿美元 据国家发展改革委价格监测中心监测，本轮成品油调价周期内（1月6日—1月19日）国际油价先升后降。 国家发展改革委价格监测中心预计，在全球油市供应过剩的背景下，地缘政治局势是影响国际油价震荡运行的主要因素。短期来看，伊朗与委内瑞拉局势 仍是关注焦点。伊朗国内外形势的动荡反复可能导致油价波动加剧。委内瑞拉方面，在长期制裁下其原油出口已大幅减少。近期美国宣布将接收数千万桶 受制裁的委油，加剧了市场对长期供应增加的预期。然而，美国对相关油轮的整顿行动仍在持续，表明局势依然复杂，委内瑞拉原油出口的实际恢复节奏 ...

Core Insights - The domestic fuel price adjustment window will open on January 20, with gasoline and diesel prices set to increase for the first time in 2026 due to rising international oil prices [1] - From January 20, the price of gasoline and diesel will rise by 85 yuan per ton, translating to an increase of 0.07 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel on average nationwide [1] Group 1 - The price increase for filling a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will result in an additional cost of 3.5 yuan [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission's Price Monitoring Center indicates that international oil prices experienced fluctuations during the adjustment cycle from January 6 to January 19, initially rising and then falling [3] - Geopolitical situations, particularly in Iran and Venezuela, are identified as major factors influencing the volatility of international oil prices, with the potential for increased price fluctuations in the short term [3] Group 2 - The ongoing turmoil in Iran and the long-term sanctions affecting Venezuela's oil exports are critical areas of concern for market stability [3] - The recent announcement by the U.S. to accept millions of barrels of sanctioned Venezuelan oil has heightened expectations for a long-term increase in supply, although the actual recovery of Venezuelan oil exports remains uncertain [3] - Continuous regulatory actions by the U.S. on related oil tankers indicate that the situation is complex, which will likely continue to disrupt market sentiment [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that domestic fuel prices in China will increase for the first time in 2026 due to rising international oil prices, with gasoline and diesel prices each rising by 85 yuan per ton starting from January 20 at 24:00 [1] - The average increase in fuel prices translates to an increase of 0.07 yuan per liter for 92 octane gasoline, 95 octane gasoline, and 0 octane diesel [1] - Filling a 50-liter tank with 92 octane gasoline will cost an additional 3.5 yuan [3] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission's price monitoring center indicates that international oil prices experienced fluctuations during the pricing cycle from January 6 to January 19, with prices rising initially and then falling [4] - Geopolitical situations, particularly in Iran and Venezuela, are identified as major factors influencing the volatility of international oil prices, with Iran's internal and external conditions potentially leading to increased price fluctuations [4] - Venezuela's oil exports have significantly decreased due to long-term sanctions, and while the U.S. has announced plans to accept sanctioned Venezuelan oil, the actual recovery of Venezuela's oil exports remains uncertain, continuing to disrupt market sentiment [4]

调价后国际原油走势分析及下一次调价预测 隆众预计：1月20日24时将上调汽柴油限价，每吨汽油上调85、柴油上调85元，折合每升89.06、92.06、95.07、0.07元。 本轮调价周期原油综合变化率以负向开局，后半段转为正向区间，最终对应成品油为上调。周期内变化率最高为第十个工作日的 1.81%，最低为第二个工作日的-2.45%。最终调价窗口开启时、汽油和柴油对应上调幅度均为85元/吨，也是2026年以来的首次上 调。 展望后市，OPEC+重申第一季度将暂停增产，同时地缘局势近期虽有缓和、但不稳定性尚未彻底被消除，潜在供应风险仍需提防， 叠加北半球寒冷天气提振，局部燃料需求也有一定支撑。整体来看，预计下一轮成品油调价上调的概率较大。 成品油调价对车主和物流业费用影响 隆众预计：1月20日24时将上调汽柴油限价，每吨汽油上调85、柴油上调85元，折合每升89.06、92.06、95.07、0.07元。 以油箱容量50L的普通私家车计算，这次调价后，车主们加满一箱油将多花3元左右；按市区百公里耗油7L-8L的车型，平均每行驶一 百公里费用增加0.45元左右。而对满载50吨的大型物流运输车辆而言平均每行驶一百公 ...

Group 1 - The oil ETF (561360) has seen a net inflow of over 200 million yuan for five consecutive days, indicating a favorable supply-demand balance in the oil market [1] - As of January 11, 2026, the weekly spot price of Brent crude oil is $66.01 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.67% [1] - The operating rate of China's asphalt production facilities is reported at 25.4%, showing a week-on-week decrease of 2.0 percentage points [1] Group 2 - Global oil demand for the 12th quarter is 106.6 million barrels per day, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.04% [1] - The number of active drilling rigs globally in December is 1,783, representing a month-on-month decrease of 1.65% [1] - The wholesale price of gasoline in China is 7,367 yuan per ton, which is a week-on-week decrease of 0.97% [1] Group 3 - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which focuses on listed companies across the entire oil and gas industry chain, including exploration, extraction, refining, and sales [1] - The index exhibits high cyclical characteristics and is significantly influenced by fluctuations in international oil prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming adjustment of domestic oil prices on January 20, 2026, is uncertain due to fluctuating international oil prices, which initially suggested a decrease but have recently shown signs of increase [1][2]. Group 1: Price Fluctuations - Initially, predictions indicated a potential decrease of 120 CNY per ton, but recent increases in international oil prices have altered this outlook [1]. - As of January 14, the change rate for crude oil has turned positive at 0.45%, leading to an estimated increase of 5 CNY per ton, which is below the adjustment threshold of 50 CNY per ton [1][2]. - The adjustment cycle began with expectations of a decrease, with initial forecasts of a 65 CNY per ton reduction on January 7, followed by an 80 CNY per ton decrease on January 9 [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Geopolitical tensions and OPEC's decision to halt production increases have contributed to rising international oil prices, creating supply-side pressures [2]. - Despite recent fluctuations, the market remains uncertain, with U.S. crude oil prices at approximately 58.57 USD per barrel and Brent crude around 58.9 USD, indicating a lack of market confidence [2]. - The International Energy Agency has projected a surplus of 3.8 million barrels per day in the first half of the year, suggesting that long-term supply may exceed demand despite short-term geopolitical concerns [2]. Group 3: Regional Price Variations - Current prices for 95-octane gasoline vary significantly across regions, with Beijing at 7.14 CNY per liter, Shanghai at 7.10 CNY, and Guangzhou at 7.29 CNY, while Hainan has the highest price at 8.3 CNY [3]. - For 98-octane gasoline, prices are even higher, with Beijing at 8.64 CNY, Shanghai at 9.1 CNY, and the highest reported price in Hubei at 9.19 CNY per liter [5]. Group 4: Consumer Sentiment - Consumers are advised to wait for clearer signals before making decisions on refueling, as the final price adjustment remains uncertain until the next few days [6]. - The current situation reflects a state of indecision in the market, with prices neither firmly increasing nor decreasing, leaving consumers in a state of anticipation [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of protests in Iran due to economic stagnation and inflation, exacerbated by U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil, and the potential geopolitical risks that may arise from these events [1]. Group 1: Economic Impact - By the end of 2025, Iran's currency depreciated significantly, leading to inflation and widespread protests in Tehran, with demands for political reform and reduced military spending [1]. - Iran's oil production in 2025 was over 3.2 million barrels per day, accounting for approximately 3.5%-4% of global supply, with about 90% of its oil exports going to China, which represents around 15% of China's total imports [17][18]. - The protests and potential military conflicts could disrupt Iran's chemical and oil exports, particularly affecting methanol and urea production, which are critical for global supply chains [6][19]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - Iran's methanol imports to China reached approximately 1.27 million tons in 2025, with Iran being the largest supplier, contributing around 60% of China's methanol imports [3]. - The article highlights that Iran is the third-largest high-sulfur oil exporter in the Middle East, supplying about 17% of China's fuel oil imports, which could be impacted by escalating geopolitical tensions [12]. - If military conflicts arise, the supply of methanol and other chemical products from Iran could decline significantly, leading to price increases in the international market [7][20]. Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - The article notes that external forces, particularly the U.S. and Israel, may influence the protests in Iran, with potential military interventions being a concern [1][6]. - The situation in Iran could lead to a significant disruption in global oil supply, especially if the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for oil, is affected, which could result in oil prices rising by as much as $40 per barrel [12][18]. - The potential for renewed military conflict between Israel and Iran could mirror past incidents, leading to further instability in the region and impacting global energy markets [6][9].

据新华社报道，美国9日发布消息说，"扣押"一艘名为"奥利娜"的油轮。 国际油价拉升，WTI原油涨1.78%，报58.79美元/桶；布伦特原油涨1.5%，报62.92美元/桶。 美国军方7日上午在约半小时内宣称扣押两艘油轮。 美国东部时间7日8时43分，美国欧洲司令部在社交媒体上发布消息称，在北大西洋扣押一艘俄罗斯油轮。约半小 时后，美国南方司令部在社交媒体上发布消息称，在国际水域扣押一艘无国籍油轮。 三名熟悉行动的消息人士称，美国已正式对"水手"号油轮展开扣押行动。该油轮此前名为"贝拉1"号。美国海岸 警卫队此前已对该油轮持续跟踪约两周时间。 此外，记者获悉，北约多国已对该油轮展开密集监控。两架美军P-8"波塞冬"巡逻机从英国米尔登霍尔皇家空军 基地起飞，英国"台风"战斗机、RC-135W侦察机，以及爱尔兰空军和法国海军巡逻机，先后被发现前往相关海 域。航运数据显示，该船在北大西洋突然减速并改变航向，从原本驶向俄罗斯方向转为南下航行。 俄罗斯外交部1月6日表示，正密切关注该国油轮"水手"号在北大西洋公海海域受到美国军方追踪一事。据了解， 2025年12月，这艘原名为"贝拉1"号的油轮成功阻止了美方人员登船企图 ...

特朗普在Truth Social上说："委内瑞拉临时当局将向美国移交3,000万至5,000万桶高质量的受制裁石 油。"特朗普还表示，他已要求能源部长克里斯·赖特立即执行该计划。近月西得州中质油期货下跌 2.3%，报每桶55.80美元。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 涨跌幅 ^ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00857 | 中国石油股份 | 8.080 | -2.18% | | 00883 | 中国海洋石油 | 20.840 | -2.16% | | 02883 | 中海油田服务 | 7.230 | -1.50% | | 00135 | 昆仑能源 | 7.490 -1.45% | | | 00386 | 中国石油化工股 | 4.640 | -1.28% | 国际油价走低，港股三桶油集体走弱，其中，中国石油股份、中国海洋石油跌超2%，中国石油化工跌 1.28%。 消息上，亚洲早盘，WTI原油跌幅达2%，布伦特原油期货盘初下跌1%，至每桶60.09美元。此前美国总 统特朗普在Truth Social上称，委内瑞拉石油将被运往美国。 ...

Group 1 - The first adjustment of domestic refined oil prices in 2026 will begin at 24:00 on January 6, with no changes to gasoline and diesel prices due to a price adjustment amount of less than 50 yuan per ton [2] - During the current price adjustment cycle (December 22, 2025 - January 5, 2026), international oil prices have shown narrow fluctuations, with Brent crude oil futures trading between $60 and $63 per barrel [3] - Geopolitical risks are identified as the main short-term factor influencing international oil price volatility, with a focus on developments in the Middle East, Russia-Ukraine, and Venezuela [3]