Core Points - The domestic fuel prices in China have been reduced for the eighth time this year, effective from October 13, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 75 yuan and 70 yuan per ton respectively [1][4] - The adjustment reflects a total of 20 price changes this year, categorized as 6 increases, 8 decreases, and 6 unchanged [1] - Experts predict that the global crude oil market will maintain a loose supply structure, leading to a weak and fluctuating trend in international oil prices in the future [1] Price Adjustment Factors - The decline in international oil prices is influenced by several factors, including the resumption of oil exports from Iraq, the U.S. government shutdown, and evolving geopolitical conflicts [4] - Specific factors contributing to the price drop include the increase in supply concerns due to Iraq's Kurdish region restoring oil exports, a decrease in geopolitical risk premium following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Palestine, and the impact of the U.S. government closure on market sentiment [4] - Conversely, there are factors providing some support to oil prices, such as reduced supply from Russia due to drone attacks by Ukraine and lower-than-expected production increase plans from OPEC+ in November [4]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming oil price adjustment on September 23 may be suspended due to insufficient changes in international oil prices, which have experienced significant volatility recently [1][5]. Price Trends - Domestic oil prices have been adjusted downwards seven times this year, with a total reduction of 405 CNY per ton, leading to 92 gasoline prices returning to the "7 CNY era" in many regions [3][12]. - In Guangzhou, the current prices are 7.13 CNY per liter for 92 gasoline, 7.73 CNY for 95 gasoline, and 6.46 CNY for 0 diesel [3]. Regional Price Variations - There are notable regional differences in oil prices across China, with the southwestern regions generally higher than the eastern regions. Hainan province has the highest prices, with 92 gasoline at 8.23 CNY per liter in Haikou [4][12]. Factors Influencing Price Adjustments - The National Development and Reform Commission's pricing mechanism states that if the international oil price changes by less than 50 CNY per ton, the adjustment will be suspended. Currently, the expected reduction is only 10 CNY per ton, well below the threshold [5]. - Recent international oil price fluctuations were influenced by OPEC's increased production and a rise in U.S. crude oil inventories, which initially drove prices down. However, events such as hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have contributed to a rebound in prices [8][10]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the upward momentum for oil prices may weaken as the effects of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are gradually realized. Future international oil prices are expected to fluctuate between 65.7 USD and 69 USD [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term sentiment in the soybean market is cautious. With the market sentiment about to turn, there is an expectation of repairing the price difference between the domestic and foreign soybean markets. The short - term price of soybean meal futures has turned to a volatile state. The price of palm oil futures has stopped falling and rebounded as international oil prices have stabilized, and the positive industrial chain expectations also support the price. [6][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - period Opinions**: The short - term and mid - term views are both "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly". The core logic is that the market is waiting for the progress of Sino - US negotiations, which will determine the market's risk pricing for the long - term. The short - term sentiment in the soybean market is cautious, and there is an expectation of repairing the price difference between the domestic and foreign soybean markets. Also, factors such as import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand affect it. [6][8] Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Opinions**: The short - term and mid - term views are both "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly". The core logic is that the spill - over effect of recent international oil price fluctuations on the oil market continues to appear. As international oil prices have stabilized, the price of palm oil futures, the most energy - related oil variety, has stopped falling and rebounded, and the positive industrial chain expectations also support it. Also, factors such as biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand affect it. [7][8][9] Soybean Oil (2601) - **Time - period Opinions**: The short - term and mid - term views are both "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly". The core logic includes factors such as US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory. [8]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The domestic situation of weak reality and strong expectation in the soybean sector remains unchanged, with high volatility in short - term soybean futures prices. The overall performance of soybean meal and palm oil futures is expected to be weakly volatile both in the short - term and medium - term [5][6]. - Fluctuations in international oil prices have a continuous spill - over effect on the oil market, especially on palm oil futures, which experience intensified high - level volatility. However, the positive trend in the palm oil industry chain remains, providing support for palm oil prices [8]. 3) Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: All are weakly volatile [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: Sino - US trade relations are crucial for US soybean export prospects. The import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and备货 demand also affect soybean meal prices. Market sentiment turning weak leads to synchronized declines in domestic and foreign soybean futures prices, increasing the short - term volatility of soybean meal futures [5][7]. Palm Oil (P) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: All are weakly volatile [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: Fluctuations in international oil prices have a significant impact on palm oil futures. The positive trend in the palm oil industry chain, such as declining Indonesian inventories, strong Malaysian palm oil exports, and increased Indian imports, supports palm oil prices. However, short - term price fluctuations are intensified [8]. Soybean Oil (2601) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: All are weakly volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventories, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventories [7]. Palm (2601) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: All are weakly volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by its bio - diesel properties, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventories, and substitution demand [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent round of refined oil price adjustments in China will not take place due to insufficient price changes during the monitoring period, despite fluctuations in international oil prices [1]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - During the pricing cycle from July 29 to August 11, Brent crude oil futures initially rose from $70 per barrel to $73, before declining for six consecutive working days to around $66 [5]. - The increase in oil prices was influenced by expectations of improved economic activity following a trade agreement between the U.S. and EU, and potential easing of U.S.-China trade tensions [5]. - The subsequent decline in oil prices was attributed to supply pressures from OPEC+ announcing an increase in oil production by 547,000 barrels per day for September, and market expectations of a potential easing of Russian oil export restrictions [5]. Group 2: Demand Factors - Weak U.S. non-farm employment data for July, with only 73,000 new jobs added and an unemployment rate rising to 4.2%, raised concerns about economic activity and oil demand [5]. - The implementation of new tariffs by the U.S. on multiple countries starting August 7 has further fueled worries about a slowdown in global economic activity, negatively impacting oil demand [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) anticipates that OPEC+'s stance on increasing production and the ongoing global economic challenges will continue to exert downward pressure on international oil prices in the short term [5]. - Close attention is required regarding future U.S. tariff policies towards India and China, as these could further influence oil demand dynamics [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that domestic refined oil prices are experiencing a temporary adjustment after a series of increases, with gasoline and diesel prices expected to decrease by approximately 0.10 to 0.12 yuan per liter [1][3] - The recent international oil price fluctuations, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and OPEC production cuts, have led to a rare "three consecutive increases" in oil prices, with some regions seeing 95-octane gasoline prices exceed 8 yuan per liter [1][3] - The current round of price adjustments is supported by a -3.31% change rate in crude oil prices, allowing for a reduction of 130 yuan per ton, despite a slight increase in early July that reduced the expected drop by about 15 yuan per ton [3] Group 2 - The limited decrease in oil prices should be viewed with caution, as future price movements remain uncertain due to ongoing volatility in international oil prices, U.S. crude inventory data, and geopolitical factors [3][6] - Some regions, such as Guangdong and Guangxi, may see 95-octane gasoline prices return to the "7 yuan range," but consumers are advised to be rational about refueling, as the savings from the price drop are minimal [3][6] - The adjustment in refined oil prices reflects the normal response of the domestic pricing mechanism to international market dynamics, highlighting the complexity of global energy geopolitics and its impact on long-term oil price trends [6]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil prices in China have experienced their first "three consecutive increases" of the year, with gasoline and diesel prices raised by 235 yuan/ton and 225 yuan/ton respectively, leading to increased costs for consumers and logistics [1][3]. Price Adjustments - The latest price adjustments translate to an increase of 0.18 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline and 0.19 yuan for both 95-octane gasoline and 0 diesel [1]. - For a typical family car with a 50L fuel tank, filling up with 92-octane gasoline will now cost an additional 9 yuan, while logistics costs for heavy trucks running 10,000 km per month will increase by approximately 337 yuan [1]. Market Trends - This adjustment marks the 13th price change in 2025 and the 6th increase this year, resulting in a pattern of "six increases, five decreases, and two suspensions" [3]. - The international oil market has shown volatility, with significant fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. oil inventory levels [3]. Future Price Predictions - Analysts predict a high likelihood of price reductions in the next round of adjustments, with expectations of a decrease of around 290 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel due to the recent drop in international oil prices [5][6]. - The next price adjustment window is set to open on July 15 at 24:00 [8]. Demand Outlook - Despite the potential for price reductions, domestic gasoline demand is expected to remain strong due to increased travel during the summer and higher air conditioning usage amid rising temperatures [7]. - Conversely, diesel demand may decline due to lower operational rates in downstream sectors influenced by high temperatures and rainy seasons [7].

Core Insights - WTI crude oil prices experienced a short-term increase of nearly $1, rising by 3.00% to $73.64 per barrel [1] Price Movement - The international oil prices are exhibiting significant volatility, with potential for substantial returns, indicating a market environment where gains could reach nearly tenfold in a single day [1]

Core Viewpoint - WTI crude oil futures surged over 13%, reaching $76.89 per barrel, marking the highest level since January 22 [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The significant increase in oil prices is attributed to military actions taken against Iran, specifically airstrikes targeting nuclear and military facilities [1] - The operation was named "Lion's Strength," indicating a strategic military initiative that may impact global oil supply and demand dynamics [1] Group 2: Price Volatility - The volatility in international oil prices suggests potential for substantial trading opportunities, with reports indicating that daily gains could reach nearly tenfold [1]

Core Viewpoint - The SC crude oil main contract has reached its daily limit, with an increase of 8.98%, priced at 535.2 yuan per barrel [1] Industry Summary - International oil prices are experiencing significant volatility, presenting opportunities for substantial returns, with potential gains of nearly ten times in a single day [1]