Workflow
国际贸易货币体系重组
icon
Search documents
贵金属日评-20250718
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 01:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The international trade and monetary system restructuring and reserve diversification demand will continue to support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's new policies and economic situation will support the medium - term bull market. However, the high price and P/E ratio lead to increased volatility, and the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's interest - rate cut in the third quarter should be noted. It is recommended that investors take a long - position approach with medium - low positions, and short - thinking traders can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [4][5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook - **Intraday Quotes**: Trump's criticism of Powell and the clarification of dismissal rumors, along with US PPI data, caused gold price fluctuations. Anti - involution expectations drove up silver prices. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted, with London gold expected to oscillate between $3120 - 3500 per ounce before rising again. This week, focus on China's Q2 GDP, June economic data, and US June inflation and consumption data [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Quotes**: Shanghai Gold Index closed at 777.12, down 0.02%; Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9174, up 0.18%; Gold T + D closed at 770.80, down 0.18%; Silver T + D closed at 9113, up 0.04% [5]. - **Medium - term Quotes**: Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - 3500 per ounce. International trade cooling and the US fiscal expansion bill weakened gold's demand, but Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks supported it. The gold - silver ratio has returned to pre - April levels. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - 3500 per ounce in the short term [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - Multiple charts are provided, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis to Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump said he doesn't plan to fire Powell but doesn't completely rule it out. Bloomberg's report of a possible dismissal caused market fluctuations [17]. - Trump mentioned maintaining Japan's tariff rates, being close to a trade deal with India, and the possibility of a deal with Europe, but it's too early to comment on the Canada deal [17]. - The EU is ready to impose tariffs worth 72 billion euros ($83.6 billion) on US goods if trade negotiations with the US fail [18]. - Canada will implement a tariff - quota system for countries with free - trade agreements (except the US) and impose a 25% additional tariff on steel imports containing Chinese - smelted and cast steel [18]. - US producer prices were unexpectedly flat in June, and weak service prices may create conditions for the Fed to cut interest rates later this year [18].
贵金属日评-20250717
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 01:49
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term volatility of gold has increased, but the medium - term upward trend remains good. London gold may oscillate and consolidate between $3120 - 3500 per ounce before rising again. The long - cycle and medium - cycle bull markets of gold are supported by multiple factors, but the volatility is also significant. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Analysis 3.1.1 Intraday Market - The stabilization and rebound of the US CPI in June supported the Fed's decision to stay on hold. The US dollar index rebounded significantly to around 98.5, and London gold fell back to around $3320 per ounce. However, the change in the US attitude towards Russia and the concern about the long - term Russia - Ukraine conflict provided bottom support for precious metals. London gold rebounded slightly to $3340 per ounce in the Asian session on the 16th [4] 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been in a wide - range oscillation between $3100 - 3500 per ounce. The cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill weakened the hedging and allocation demand for gold, but the hedging demand due to Trump's new - deal uncertainty and geopolitical risks supported the gold price. In June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and the gold - silver ratio has basically returned to the level before April. The long - cycle and medium - cycle bull markets of gold are supported, but the gold price volatility is significant. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate and consolidate in the range of $3120 - 3500 per ounce in the short term [5] 3.2 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Russia's President Putin intends to continue the war in Ukraine until Western countries accept his peace terms, believing that Russia's economic and military strength can withstand further Western sanctions [17] - NVIDIA will resume the sales of H20 chips in China, announce a new GPU for the Chinese market, and launch a new graphics card RTX Pro [17] - US President Trump reached an agreement with the Indonesian President. Indonesia promised to buy US energy worth $15 billion, US agricultural products worth $4.5 billion, and 50 Boeing aircraft. The US will impose a 19% tariff on all Indonesian imports, while US exports to Indonesia will enjoy tariff - free and non - tariff - barrier - free treatment [17] - The US CPI in June rose 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, in line with market expectations. The core CPI rose 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, both lower than market expectations. Traders predict that the Fed will start to cut interest rates in September and cut rates nearly twice by the end of the year [18]
贵金属日评-20250710
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 02:17
Report Overview - Report Date: July 10, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Precious Metals Daily Review - Research Team: Macro Financial Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Trump's new policies have increased geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty, boosting the safe - haven demand for gold. Although the dollar exchange rate and U.S. Treasury yields have risen, which is negative for precious metals in the short - term, the long - term and medium - term upward trend of gold remains intact. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4][5]. Summary by Section 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - Trump signed the "Big Beautiful Act" into law, and the U.S. Treasury accelerated debt issuance, causing the dollar exchange rate and U.S. Treasury yields to rise, which was negative for precious metals. On the 9th Asian session, London gold fell to around $3285 per ounce. However, Trump's threat to impose tariffs on copper, drugs, and semiconductors and sell weapons to Ukraine to resist Russia also boosted the safe - haven demand for precious metals. London gold is expected to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again [4]. Domestic Precious Metals Market Data | Contract | Previous Closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 776.87 | 775.87 | 765.83 | 767.30 | - 1.23% | 396,422 | - 2282 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 8,957 | 8,944 | 8,853 | 8,906 | - 0.57% | 881,108 | - 38229 | | Gold T + D | 771.51 | 771.00 | 761.46 | 763.50 | - 1.04% | 236,664 | 11684 | | Silver T + D | 8,923 | 8,907 | 8,815 | 8,856 | - 0.75% | 3,398,076 | 59188 | [5] Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been in a wide - range oscillation between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. Although the cooling of international trade and the strong rebound of global stock markets have weakened the safe - haven and allocation demand for gold, the uncertainty of Trump's new policies, weak global economic growth, and high geopolitical risks continue to support the gold price. The geopolitical risks in South Asia and the Middle East have provided short - term upward momentum for gold. In early June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and London silver soared from $33 to $36.9 per ounce in six working days. It is expected that the long - term bull market of gold will be supported by the safe - haven and reserve diversification demand brought by the restructuring of the international trade and currency system, and the medium - term bull market will be supported by economic weakness and central bank interest - rate cut expectations. However, the high price and price - to - earnings ratio of gold also mean increased volatility, and attention should be paid to the impact of rising U.S. inflation pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut timing in the third quarter [5]. 2. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11]. 3. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper and plans to impose tariffs on semiconductors and drugs (up to 200% for drugs), with copper tariffs possibly implemented by the end of July or August 1 [17]. - Trump said the U.S. will impose a 10% tariff on imports from BRICS countries, which has drawn complaints from Brazilian President Lula. No specific implementation date was given [17]. - Trump approved the delivery of defensive weapons to Ukraine and is considering additional sanctions against Moscow [17]. - The U.S. Treasury will increase the debt ceiling by $5 trillion and plans to increase the issuance of Treasury bills, focusing on short - term bonds. The U.S. Treasury Secretary said that the U.S. has received about $100 billion in tariff revenue so far this year, which may increase to $300 billion by the end of 2025 [18].
贵金属日评-20250704
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 03:22
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weakening of the US ADP private - sector employment in June and the setback of the US fiscal expansion bill in the House of Representatives have boosted the safe - haven demand for precious metals. The overnight London gold rebounded to around $3360 per ounce, and silver with stronger industrial attributes outperformed gold. Gold's safe - haven demand is greatly boosted by Trump's new policies, and its medium - term upward trend remains good, but volatility has increased. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4]. - From late April to now, London gold has been in a wide - range oscillation between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The international trade situation and the strong rebound of global stock markets have weakened the safe - haven and allocation demand for gold, but factors such as Trump's new policies, weak global economic growth, and geopolitical risks still support the gold price. The long - term and medium - term bull markets of gold are supported, but the high price also means increased volatility, and attention should be paid to the impact of rising US inflation pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut timing in the third quarter. It is recommended to avoid full - position chasing and blind short - selling, and short - minded traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market - **Intraday Market**: The weakening of the US ADP private - sector employment in June and the setback of the fiscal expansion bill in the House of Representatives boosted the safe - haven demand for precious metals. London gold rebounded, and silver outperformed gold due to the marginal easing of Sino - US trade and the strong performance of the Chinese stock market. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump's new policies, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset with medium - to - low positions. This week, attention should be paid to PMI data in June from China, the US, and Europe, US non - farm payrolls in June, central bank officials' statements, and the progress of the US fiscal bill [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: From late April to now, London gold has oscillated between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The cooling of international trade and the strong rebound of global stock markets have weakened the demand for gold, but Trump's new policies, weak global economic growth, and geopolitical risks support the price. In early June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and London silver soared from $33 to $36.9 per ounce in six working days. The long - term and medium - term bull markets of gold are supported, but volatility has increased, and attention should be paid to US inflation pressure in the third quarter. It is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset, avoid full - position chasing and blind short - selling, and short - minded traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage [5]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market Data**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 781.64, up 0.67%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 8973, up 2.28%; Gold T + D closed at 775.83, up 0.71%; Silver T + D closed at 8929, up 2.20% [5]. 3.2 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - **Trade Policy**: The US will impose a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports, and goods transshipped through Vietnam from third countries will face a 40% tariff, while Vietnam will impose zero tariffs on US products. The US has removed restrictions on ethane exports to China, indicating that the Sino - US trade truce is on track [17]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The House Republicans' efforts to pass Trump's large - scale tax - cut and spending bill have encountered difficulties, and it is unlikely to be passed before July 4 [17]. - **Employment Data**: In June, US private - sector employment decreased by 33,000, the first decrease since March 2023, but the low lay - off rate continued to support the job market as the number of lay - offs in June decreased by 49% compared to the previous month [18].