Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weakening of the US ADP private - sector employment in June and the setback of the US fiscal expansion bill in the House of Representatives have boosted the safe - haven demand for precious metals. The overnight London gold rebounded to around $3360 per ounce, and silver with stronger industrial attributes outperformed gold. Gold's safe - haven demand is greatly boosted by Trump's new policies, and its medium - term upward trend remains good, but volatility has increased. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4]. - From late April to now, London gold has been in a wide - range oscillation between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The international trade situation and the strong rebound of global stock markets have weakened the safe - haven and allocation demand for gold, but factors such as Trump's new policies, weak global economic growth, and geopolitical risks still support the gold price. The long - term and medium - term bull markets of gold are supported, but the high price also means increased volatility, and attention should be paid to the impact of rising US inflation pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut timing in the third quarter. It is recommended to avoid full - position chasing and blind short - selling, and short - minded traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market - **Intraday Market**: The weakening of the US ADP private - sector employment in June and the setback of the fiscal expansion bill in the House of Representatives boosted the safe - haven demand for precious metals. London gold rebounded, and silver outperformed gold due to the marginal easing of Sino - US trade and the strong performance of the Chinese stock market. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump's new policies, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset with medium - to - low positions. This week, attention should be paid to PMI data in June from China, the US, and Europe, US non - farm payrolls in June, central bank officials' statements, and the progress of the US fiscal bill [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: From late April to now, London gold has oscillated between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The cooling of international trade and the strong rebound of global stock markets have weakened the demand for gold, but Trump's new policies, weak global economic growth, and geopolitical risks support the price. In early June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and London silver soared from $33 to $36.9 per ounce in six working days. The long - term and medium - term bull markets of gold are supported, but volatility has increased, and attention should be paid to US inflation pressure in the third quarter. It is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset, avoid full - position chasing and blind short - selling, and short - minded traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage [5]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market Data**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 781.64, up 0.67%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 8973, up 2.28%; Gold T + D closed at 775.83, up 0.71%; Silver T + D closed at 8929, up 2.20% [5]. 3.2 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - **Trade Policy**: The US will impose a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports, and goods transshipped through Vietnam from third countries will face a 40% tariff, while Vietnam will impose zero tariffs on US products. The US has removed restrictions on ethane exports to China, indicating that the Sino - US trade truce is on track [17]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The House Republicans' efforts to pass Trump's large - scale tax - cut and spending bill have encountered difficulties, and it is unlikely to be passed before July 4 [17]. - **Employment Data**: In June, US private - sector employment decreased by 33,000, the first decrease since March 2023, but the low lay - off rate continued to support the job market as the number of lay - offs in June decreased by 49% compared to the previous month [18].