Core Viewpoint - The Shimao Shenzhen-Hong Kong International Center, once aimed to be "China's tallest building," is experiencing a potential turnaround after years of stagnation and two failed auctions, with a new land acquisition risk mitigation plan proposed by CITIC Trust [1][15]. Group 1: Land Acquisition Plan - CITIC Trust has proposed a land acquisition risk mitigation plan involving the acquisition of 12 land parcels from Shimao Group for a total compensation of 6.8 billion yuan, which is significantly lower than the original land value [2][10]. - The plan includes a phased payment structure, with 15% paid within two months, 35% within six months, and the remainder by January 31, 2027 [2][5]. - The compensation framework aims to provide partial returns to trust investors and create conditions for revitalizing the land parcels in Longgang District [5][15]. Group 2: Project Background and Challenges - The Shimao Shenzhen-Hong Kong International Center was initially planned as a mixed-use complex featuring exhibition, entrepreneurial, and commercial spaces, with a planned height of over 700 meters [5][12]. - The project has been stalled since 2022 due to Shimao Group's debt crisis, which has prevented any progress in construction [5][12]. - Shimao Group has raised concerns regarding the adequacy of the proposed compensation, stating it is less than one-third of the original land value and has initiated administrative litigation against CITIC Trust [7][10]. Group 3: Historical Context and Financial Implications - In 2017, Shimao Group acquired the land for the project at a record price of 23.943 billion yuan, which highlights the stark contrast with the current proposed compensation [10][14]. - CITIC Trust's financing plan, initiated in 2019, faced repayment difficulties in 2022, leading to forced execution and two failed auctions of the project's assets [14][15]. - The current land acquisition plan is seen as a critical step towards resolving the project's long-standing issues and potentially reviving its development [5][15].

Core Viewpoint - Beijing has announced a new policy allowing the use of housing provident fund (HPF) to pay for down payments on homes, which is expected to alleviate the financial burden on homebuyers and lower the threshold for purchasing homes [1][2][4]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The new policy allows individuals to withdraw their HPF to pay for down payments while simultaneously applying for HPF personal housing loans, effectively reducing the upfront cash needed [4][5]. - This policy aligns with similar measures already adopted by other first-tier cities such as Shenzhen and Guangzhou, with only Shanghai yet to implement such a policy [7][10]. Group 2: Market Impact - The ability to use HPF for down payments is anticipated to ease the financial pressure on first-time homebuyers, allowing them to utilize their HPF balances directly for this purpose [5][10]. - Over 30 cities have already adopted policies supporting the use of HPF for down payments, indicating a growing trend in the market [6][10]. Group 3: Broader Context - The overall real estate policy landscape is becoming saturated, with many cities having exhausted their policy options, leading to a focus on HPF and home purchase subsidies as remaining tools [11][12]. - The central government is expected to continue strengthening policies to stabilize the market, particularly through urban renewal and land reserve initiatives, which may further alleviate inventory pressures in the industry [12][13].

Group 1 - The company Guangxi Wuzhou Zhongheng Group Co., Ltd. announced that its subsidiary Zhaoqing Zhongheng Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. received overdue payments totaling 6,274,625.00 yuan from the Zhaoqing High-tech Industrial Development Zone Land Reserve Center [1] - The Zhaoqing High-tech Land Reserve Center has agreed to extend the payment deadline for all debts to December 31, 2025, and will sign supplementary agreements regarding overdue compensation, interest, and breach of contract [1] - As of the announcement date, the total amount received by Zhaoqing Zhongheng Pharmaceutical from the Zhaoqing High-tech Land Reserve Center is 53,324,788.20 yuan, including the recent payment [1] Group 2 - According to the supplementary agreement signed on December 29, 2023, the Zhaoqing High-tech Land Reserve Center is required to pay all remaining overdue principal and interest within a specified timeframe [2] - The cumulative amount paid by the Zhaoqing High-tech Land Reserve Center for land reserve compensation and overdue principal interest is 433,508,531.20 yuan, while the outstanding principal owed to Zhaoqing Zhongheng Pharmaceutical is 388,000,000.00 yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of local government special bonds has increased in May, while the scale of debt repayment funds has decreased, indicating a shift in funding priorities towards investment expansion and real estate stabilization [1][2]. Group 1: Local Government Bond Issuance - In the first five months of the year, the total issuance of local government bonds reached approximately 4.3 trillion yuan, with May alone accounting for 779.4 billion yuan [1]. - The issuance of new special bonds in May was 443.2 billion yuan, marking the highest monthly figure for the year, while refinancing special bonds for replacing existing hidden debts dropped to 30.2 billion yuan, the lowest for the year [1][2]. - The total issuance of new special bonds from January to May was about 1.6 trillion yuan, representing 37% of the annual quota, suggesting room for acceleration in issuance [1][2]. Group 2: Debt Repayment and Special Bonds - In May, the total issuance of debt repayment bonds included 302 billion yuan for refinancing hidden debts and 987 billion yuan in "special" new special bonds for repaying existing debts, totaling 1.289 trillion yuan [2]. - Cumulatively, from January to May, refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts amounted to 1.63 trillion yuan, accounting for 81% of the annual quota of 2 trillion yuan [2]. - The issuance of new special bonds for debt repayment reached 242.4 billion yuan, which is 30% of the annual quota of 800 billion yuan, indicating significant progress in debt resolution [2]. Group 3: Investment Focus of Special Bonds - Since 2025, the primary allocation of funds from newly issued special bonds has been directed towards cold chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure (approximately 33%), transportation infrastructure (21%), and affordable housing projects (12%) [3]. - The issuance of land reserve special bonds has increased, with a total of 463 billion yuan issued in May for land storage, the highest monthly figure for the year [3]. - As of May 20, approximately 23 provinces have publicly announced plans to use special bonds to recover nearly 3,000 parcels of idle land, covering over 1.33 million square meters and totaling over 350 billion yuan [4][5]. Group 4: Special Bonds for Housing - In late May, special bonds were issued in Zhejiang and Sichuan for the acquisition of existing residential properties, aimed at alleviating inventory pressure in economically stable third and fourth-tier cities [5][6]. - Specific projects in Zhejiang included 16.53 million yuan allocated for purchasing existing properties for affordable housing, involving multiple localities [6].

Group 1 - The core issue in the real estate market is the imbalance between supply and demand, with excessive land and housing supply leading to declining prices [1][2] - The government is initiating large-scale land and housing purchases to stabilize the market, with a total planned land acquisition scale reaching 391.8 billion yuan and involving 171 cities [2][3] - The land acquisition process has accelerated significantly, with a 48-fold increase in planned land acquisition scale over the past four months [2][3] Group 2 - The majority of land acquisitions are focused on third and fourth-tier cities, which account for 84% of the total planned acquisition area [2][3] - The acquisition strategy includes both unsold housing and idle land, aiming to reduce inventory effectively [2][3] - The data indicates that the planned land acquisition for January to April 2023 is expected to accelerate the inventory reduction in the real estate market by 54% by 2025 [3][4] Group 3 - The largest planned land acquisition is in Zhengzhou, with 273 hectares, while Xi'an has the highest acquisition amount at 12.56 billion yuan [3] - The land acquisition is seen as a direct method to eliminate inventory, with the potential to restore supply-demand balance in the housing market [4] - The government's approach is viewed as a significant and sincere effort to stabilize the market, contrasting with previous measures that only provided temporary relief [4]

Core Viewpoint - The total inventory value of 50 typical listed companies reached 7.98 trillion yuan, a significant decrease of 15% compared to the end of last year [1]. Group 1: Inventory and Land Reserve Data - As of the end of 2024, the total land reserve value of the top 100 real estate companies amounted to 25.23 trillion yuan, down 13% year-on-year [15]. - The total land reserve area of the top 100 companies was 1.582 billion square meters, a decrease of 12% compared to the previous year [15]. - The threshold for the top 100 companies in terms of total land reserve value was 20.58 billion yuan, a decline of 16% [16]. Group 2: Company Performance and Trends - 96% of the top 100 real estate companies experienced a decline in land reserve value, with 15% of companies seeing a drop of over 20% [19]. - Vanke's total land reserve value decreased by over 340 billion yuan, a drop of approximately 25% [20]. - The inventory turnover cycle for the top 100 companies reached a historical high of 6.93 years, indicating increased pressure on inventory liquidation [25]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Challenges - The sales of new commercial housing in 2024 totaled 96,750 billion yuan, a decline of 17.1%, reflecting weak market demand [25]. - 94% of the 50 typical listed companies recognized inventory impairment losses totaling 167.7 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 26% increase from previous years [32]. - The proportion of completed inventory reached a record high, accounting for 27% of the total inventory value, indicating a shift towards liquidating completed projects [30]. Group 4: Strategic Focus and Policy Directions - The industry is transitioning from a "scale-oriented" approach to a "product-oriented" strategy, with companies focusing on core first and second-tier cities for new investments [35]. - Companies like Poly Development and China Resources Land are emphasizing inventory liquidation and optimizing land use to reduce capital occupation [36]. - The 2025 policy focus is expected to revolve around ensuring housing delivery, land reserve optimization, and urban renewal initiatives [37].

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that by the first 111 days of 2025, the planned utilization of special bonds for land reserve has reached 209 billion yuan, showing a rapid month-on-month increase from January to April [1] - The land reserve initiative is no longer limited to specific regions but is being broadly implemented across the country [1] - The average reserve price for land that was sold after 2018 shows a discount of 12% compared to the transaction price, which strengthens the net assets of real estate companies [1] - The reserve policy is considered a core component of supply contraction policies, which, along with financial and demand support policies, forms the critical policy combination for stabilizing the Chinese real estate market [1]

Summary of Real Estate Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the real estate industry, specifically the land market in the first quarter of 2025, highlighting trends in land supply, transaction volumes, and pricing dynamics across different city tiers [1][2][3]. Key Points Land Supply and Demand - In Q1 2025, land supply in first-tier cities increased by nearly 14% year-on-year, while national land supply decreased by 19%, indicating a faster supply pace in first-tier cities despite overall insufficiency [1][2]. - The total land transaction area nationwide fell by 11% year-on-year, but transaction value rose significantly by 19%, suggesting a shift in transaction structure with a notable increase in floor prices, particularly in first-tier cities where prices rose by 41% [1][2]. Pricing Trends - The average premium rate for land transactions in sample cities rose by 3.1 percentage points to 7.2% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities exceeding 15%, reflecting optimism among developers regarding the new housing market in core cities [1][4]. - The floor price of land transactions nationwide increased by 34% year-on-year, reaching 3,731 RMB/sqm, with first-tier cities seeing a 41% increase to 36,000 RMB/sqm [2]. Developer Activity - Leading real estate companies showed a significant increase in land acquisition activity, particularly state-owned enterprises, with some companies exceeding 100% in land acquisition intensity compared to sales [1][6]. - Approximately 75% of new land value in Q1 2025 was attributed to the top ten companies, indicating a clear divide between leading and trailing firms in the market [6][7]. Future Market Outlook - The demand-supply structure is expected to favor demand over supply in first-tier cities by 2025, supporting price increases, while lower-tier cities will need time to balance supply and demand [1][5]. - The recovery of the real estate market is anticipated to extend from first-tier cities to lower-tier cities, with varying recovery speeds and cycles [5][11]. Government Policies and Market Support - The government is expected to enhance market conditions through policies such as increasing local government special bonds for land acquisition, which has already seen a proposed area of over 4.3 million sqm and a funding amount exceeding 1.3 billion RMB [3][8]. - The overall sentiment in the real estate market is improving, with government interventions expected to further stabilize and boost market confidence [12]. Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on property companies with stable liquidity and high dividend yields, such as China Resources, Vanke, and Poly, while also considering trend-driven investments in companies like Beike, which are closely tied to the second-hand housing market [14]. - Companies that are reversing trends, such as JinDi and Longfor, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities as their credit issues are being resolved [14]. Additional Insights - The land transaction structure is crucial for influencing housing supply and pricing trends, with a strong land market in first and second-tier cities indicating a more robust new housing supply and greater market confidence [9][10]. - The real estate sector's future direction is expected to focus on virtual assets alongside physical assets, with a shift in housing demand towards residential needs rather than speculative investments [13].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the real estate industry, with a year-on-year increase in land acquisition by major companies [10][11]. Core Insights - The total land acquisition amount for the top 100 real estate companies reached 199.86 billion yuan in January-February 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.7% [11]. - The Yangtze River Delta has emerged as the leading city cluster for land acquisition, with the top 10 companies in this region acquiring 51.98 billion yuan worth of land [24]. - Major companies such as China Resources Land, Poly Developments, and China Jinmao topped the list in terms of new value added from land acquisitions, with 46.5 billion yuan, 30.5 billion yuan, and 28.3 billion yuan respectively [13]. Summary by Sections Land Acquisition Rankings - China Resources Land ranked first in land acquisition amount with 23.2 billion yuan, followed by China Jinmao with 12.9 billion yuan and Greentown China with 12.2 billion yuan [3][4]. - The top companies in terms of land area acquired include Hengnan Development Group and Haixing County Xinggang Construction Development, with 1.22 million square meters and 860,000 square meters respectively [3]. Year-on-Year Growth - The report highlights that the total land acquisition amount for key real estate companies has shown a positive year-on-year trend, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [10][11]. - The increase in land acquisition is attributed to local governments actively releasing quality land in core areas, which has boosted companies' willingness to acquire land [11][12]. Special Debt and Land Recovery - The issuance of special bonds for land recovery has accelerated, with Guangdong Province being the first to issue such bonds, amounting to approximately 30.7 billion yuan, primarily aimed at acquiring idle land [14]. - The report emphasizes the expectation that various types of real estate companies will benefit from these initiatives, which are crucial for stabilizing the real estate market [14][20]. Regional Insights - In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China Resources Land and other major companies have been active in land acquisition, with significant amounts reported [22]. - The report notes that state-owned enterprises and local government-backed companies remain dominant in land acquisition, while private enterprises are selectively increasing their land reserves in key areas [28].

证券研究报告 房地产 土地收储指引更加明晰，落地进程有 望提速 华泰研究 2025 年 3 月 11 日│中国内地 动态点评 3 月 11 日，自然资源部、财政部发布《关于做好运用地方政府专项债券支 持土地储备有关工作的通知》。相较于 24 年 11 月的自然资源部文件（明确 了收地范围、价格和用途，具体可参考我们的报告《收地指引出炉，关注三 大要点》（24.11.11）），本次文件增量信息在于：1、进一步规范收地范围； 2、明确申报审核流程；3、强调资金和收益的综合平衡。根据中指院的数据， 截至 3 月 10 日，广东、四川、吉林、江西等已公示拟使用专项债券收地的 金额约 500 亿元；同时，北京、广东已率先发行用于土地储备的专项债券共 424 亿元，其中广东的 307 亿元全部用于回收闲置土地。我们预计规范文件 的持续出台有望给予地方政府更加明晰的操作指引，加速专项债券收地的落 地，从而平衡土地供需、改善房企流动性，进一步筑牢"止跌回稳"的趋势。 增量信息 1：进一步规范收地范围 本次文件指出，各地要优先将处置存量闲置土地清单中的地块纳入土地储备 计划，24 年 11 月 7 日之后供应的土地不列入存量闲 ...