来源|财联社 一个月前，财联社就曾介绍过，随着上月特朗普反复无常的关税政策引发美国资产抛售潮，一波最 新的"去美元化"浪潮正在亚洲蔚然成风；眼下，越来越多的市场人士显然已无法忽视这股浪潮 的"崛起"…… 一个月前，财联社就曾介绍过，随着上月特朗普反复无常的关税政策引发美国资产抛售潮，一波最 新的"去美元化"浪潮正在亚洲蔚然成风。而眼下，越来越多的市场人士显然已无法忽视这股浪潮 的"崛起"…… 5月26日，东盟在其新发布的《2026-2030年经济共同体战略计划》中承诺，将推动本币在贸易和 投资中的使用，并提出通过推广本币结算、加强区域支付互联互通等措施，减少汇率波动带来的冲 击。 三菱日联金融集团(MUFG)亚洲全球市场研究主管Lin Li对媒体表示， 随着亚洲经济体寻求减少对 美元的依赖，特别是希望使用本国货币作为交易媒介以降低外汇风险，去美元化的趋势正在不断加 强。 虽然去美元化本身并不是什么新现象，但近来的情形演变可能已经发生了质的变化。投资者和官员 们开始认识到，在贸易谈判中，美元即使没有被公开武器化，也完全可以而且已经被用作一种"筹 码"。 巴克莱银行的Kotecha指出，去美元化是一个 "持续、缓 ...

期货热点追踪 外汇对冲比例飙升，美元被高估10%！"做空美国"时机已到？ 相关链接 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the South Korean won (KRW) has significant appreciation potential, being undervalued by approximately 12% according to Nomura's model, making it one of the most undervalued currencies among emerging markets and G10 currencies [1][3][4] - The discussion between South Korea's Deputy Finance Minister and the U.S. Treasury Assistant Secretary regarding the USD/KRW market indicates that the Trump administration may favor a weaker dollar, potentially making exchange rates a key topic in upcoming trade negotiations [2][3] - The potential increase in foreign exchange hedging by the National Pension Service (NPS) could lead to a substantial rise in demand for the won, as NPS could raise its foreign exchange hedging ratio to 10% of its overseas investments, which amounts to a potential foreign exchange sale of $49.7 billion [4][5] Group 2 - Basic economic factors also support the appreciation of the won, with various models indicating that the won is persistently undervalued, reinforcing the notion that external pressures are not the only drivers of its potential rise [3][4] - There are risks associated with foreign investment sell-offs or repatriation, as South Korean retail investors have significant overseas investments and may begin to liquidate assets due to concerns over a weakening dollar [5] - The asset management industry in South Korea, with a total asset management scale of $1.3 trillion, may also increase foreign exchange hedging, further contributing to upward pressure on the won [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the South Korean won (KRW) has significant appreciation potential, being undervalued by approximately 12% according to Nomura's model, making it one of the most undervalued currencies among emerging markets and G10 currencies [1][3][4] - The discussions between South Korean and U.S. officials regarding the KRW/USD exchange rate suggest that the U.S. government may favor a weaker dollar, potentially making exchange rates a key topic in upcoming trade negotiations [2][3] - The South Korean National Pension Service (NPS) may increase its foreign exchange hedging ratio, which could significantly boost demand for the KRW, especially if the NPS raises its overseas investment hedging ratio to 10% [1][4] Group 2 - Basic economic factors also support the appreciation of the KRW, as various models indicate that the currency remains undervalued, reinforcing the notion that external pressures are not the sole drivers of its potential rise [3][4] - The potential for foreign investment outflows or currency hedging by asset management firms, which manage approximately $1.3 trillion, poses a risk that could further influence the KRW's value [4] - As of May 9, 2025, South Korean retail investors have a total overseas investment of $139 billion, with indications that they are selling overseas assets due to concerns over a weakening dollar, which could impact the KRW [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Aflac reported net earnings per diluted share of $0.05, significantly impacted by net investment losses compared to net investment gains in Q1 2024 [6] - Adjusted earnings per diluted share remained unchanged at $1.66 year-over-year [6][13] - Adjusted return on equity (ROE) was 12.7% excluding foreign currency remeasurement, indicating a solid performance [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Aflac Japan experienced a 12.6% year-over-year sales increase, driven by significant contributions from Sumitas and a 6.3% increase in cancer insurance sales [6][8] - Aflac US saw a 3.5% year-over-year increase in sales, with strong performance in group life, disability, and network dental [9][17] - Net earned premiums for Aflac Japan declined by 5%, while underlying earned premiums adjusted for deferred profit liability and other factors declined by 1.4% [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Aflac Japan's total benefit ratio was 65.8%, down 120 basis points year-over-year, while the U.S. total benefit ratio was 47.7%, up 120 basis points year-over-year [15][18] - Persistency in Japan improved to 93.8%, up 40 basis points year-over-year, while U.S. persistency increased to 79.3%, up 60 basis points year-over-year [16][17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to appeal to younger customers through products like Sumitas and is focused on cross-selling medical and cancer policies [7][9] - Aflac continues to emphasize strong capital and cash flow management while maintaining a commitment to liquidity and capital ratios [10][11] - The company is strategically deploying capital, having repurchased $900 million in stock and paid $317 million in dividends in Q1 2025 [11][23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the underlying strengths of the business and potential for continued growth in both Japan and the U.S. [12] - The company is closely monitoring economic trends and adjusting its capital management strategies accordingly [38][41] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining strong premium persistency and adapting to market conditions [10][11] Other Important Information - Aflac Japan launched a new cancer insurance product in March 2025, which is expected to contribute positively to sales [54] - The company has a robust hedging strategy in place to manage foreign currency exposure, particularly related to the yen [26][97] Q&A Session Summary Question: Why did the ESR ratio decline in Q1? - Management explained that the decline was due to the strengthening yen, partially offset by higher Japan interest rates and dividends flowing to Aflac Inc. [32][33] Question: How should we think about capital planning given recent macro changes? - Management indicated that capital management is designed with a long-term view and is not expected to change significantly despite macroeconomic volatility [37][41] Question: What are the expectations for the new cancer product sales? - Management expressed confidence that the new cancer product will continue to grow, with expectations for sales in 2025 to exceed those of 2024 [54][100] Question: How is the competitive landscape for medical insurance in Japan? - Management acknowledged increased competition but emphasized Aflac's pioneering position in cancer insurance and ongoing efforts to maintain market share [58][59] Question: How are remeasurement gains expected to trend? - Management noted that significant remeasurement gains are typically unlocked in the third quarter, with smaller adjustments in other quarters [63][66] Question: Is there any anti-U.S. sentiment affecting sales in Japan? - Management stated that there is no observable anti-American sentiment affecting the business, citing strong economic ties between the U.S. and Japan [116][117]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a preference for short positions in CNY CFETS index and short SGDNEER basket, suggesting a bearish outlook on these currencies [3][4]. Core Insights - Asian economies show limited evidence of diversifying away from US assets, primarily due to low domestic yields and growth concerns [1][2]. - Malaysia, Singapore, China, and India exhibit signs of increased USD FX hedging and asset diversification, while Japan sees foreign inflows into its assets [1][2][28]. - The report highlights that Singapore and Hong Kong have the highest US asset holdings as a percentage of GDP, indicating significant room for diversification [5][6]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Diversification Potential - Singapore and Hong Kong lead in US asset holdings relative to GDP, followed by Taiwan, Japan, and Korea [5][6]. - China’s US asset holding is relatively low at 12% of GDP when accounting for indirect holdings [5][6]. Section 2: Willingness to Diversify - China is diversifying its reserves by increasing gold holdings, now at nearly 6% of total reserves, but has not sold US treasuries [11][13]. - Taiwan's central bank holds over 80% of its FX reserves in US treasuries, indicating confidence in these assets despite potential diversification [18][19]. - Korea's National Pension Service plans to increase international asset exposure to 60% by 2028, showing no intent to repatriate assets [25][26]. Section 3: Market Observations - Malaysia's government is guiding a shift towards domestic asset allocation, with EPF reducing overseas exposure [34][35]. - Singapore's large US asset holdings are supported by its status as a financial hub, with signs of month-end repatriation flows [38][39]. - India's central bank emphasizes gold accumulation for reserve diversification amid geopolitical uncertainties [47][48]. Section 4: Currency and Investment Trends - The report notes a shift in international investors' preferences from long-duration to short-duration US treasuries, contributing to a steepening of the UST curve [59][60]. - Malaysia's foreign currency deposit ratio has increased, indicating a trend towards domestic investments [55][57].

智通财经APP获悉，多年来，对于伦敦、巴黎和东京的投资者来说，买入美元、并将所得资金投入标普 500指数和纳斯达克指数一直是一种稳赚不赔的交易。美国股市的回报率不仅远高于英国、法国和日本 国内股市的回报率，而且美元的稳步升值也进一步放大了投资收益。 然而，当美国总统特朗普发起全球贸易战后，这一交易突然崩溃，投资者的痛苦迅速加剧。今年以来， 标普500指数下跌6%，而以欧元和日元计算回报的投资者损失却扩大到14%。交易瓦解的速度之快，加 上白宫反复无常的政策，让那些长期以来将美国视为"终极避险地"和"超额回报来源"的投资者感到极度 不安。巴黎Natixis Wealth Management首席投资官Benoit Peloille直言："这是双重打击。你同时在股票和 货币上蒙受损失。" 即使特朗普在关税政策上表现出了让步的姿态，但过去一个月的市场动荡也向许多外国投资者暴露了将 这么多资金投入美国资产的风险。他们中的许多人如今正急于在美国股票投资组合中增加外汇对冲。数 据显示，截至去年12月，这部分资产规模约为18万亿美元，占美国股市总市值的近五分之一。 摩根士丹利和美国银行均表示，近期越来越多的客户正在购买美元 ...