4. 信贷与证券化产品：风险偏好回升，结构分化：企业信贷将受益于资本开支增加、并购活动复苏及政 策宽松，美国和欧洲市场均呈现高收益债（HY）跑赢投资级债（IG）的格局，偏好5-10年期品种以获 取滚动收益，金融板块表现优于周期板块；证券化产品受美欧放松监管提振，建议增持短期品种、下沉 至BBB-级渠道贷款证券，超配机构MBS相对投资级信贷，美国房价与住房活动维持区间波动。 5. 大宗商品：金属强于能源：原油供需平衡偏软，布伦特原油锚定60美元/桶；黄金为首选品种，宏观 因素与强劲实物需求支撑，目标价4500美元/盎司；工业金属中看好铜和铝，二者均面临显著供应挑 战；农产品中看好大豆价格，预计12-18个月目标价11.7美元/蒲式耳，高于玉米的4.7美元/蒲式耳。 6. 核心风险提示：AI投资周期突然终止、市场风险情绪过热、美国以外地区增长超预期、美联储政策 反应函数转变；此外，美国关税政策不确定性、全球贸易紧张局势、新兴市场财政失衡仍可能引发局部 波动。 1. 核心展望与资产配置主线：2026年风险资产将迎来强劲表现，核心驱动力包括微观基本面改善、AI 资本开支加速及有利政策环境，全球市场走势将受美国主导的正 ...

虽然今年一段时间以来表现疲软，但近期，美债交易员对美联储降息乐观预期压过了对财政赤字的担 忧，美债有望迎来2020年来最佳年度表现。 然而，从美联储降息前景，到政府重新开门公布数据后带来的短期动荡，以及美国信贷市场热掩盖的投 资者风险溢价不足，都可能成为本轮美债涨势的威胁。 特朗普政府助力美债市场近期涨势 在美联储持续降息后，就业增长和消费支出正在放缓。虽然美联储官员近期分歧的表态令美股市场承 压，但美债市场仍在押注美联储进一步降息，且认为即使美国经济陷入衰退，也不会威胁到企业的资产 负债表。此外，美债投资者认为，尽管美国总统特朗普的关税政策将推高物价，但通胀压力仍在持续缓 和。 在美国政府重开之前，数据的有限性或限制美债的波动性，更倾向于窄幅波动。"他称，"与此同时，下 一任美联储主席的遴选取得进展，目前候选人减少至5人。无论是哪位当选，其政策主张都偏鸽派，我 们仍然认为货币政策宽松的可能性更高，或将带来美债利率的下行。" Badgley Phelps财富管理公司的固定收益经理斯普戈（Cal Spranger）则透露："我这段时间作为债券经理 参加了多场客户会议，而过去几年，我始终没有被邀请参加任何活动。尽 ...

2025.11. 17 本文字数：1729，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 近期，美债交易员对美联储降息乐观预期压过了对美国财政赤字的担忧，从而令市场预期美债有望迎 来2020年来最佳年度表现。 不过，也有分析提醒，从美联储降息前景，到政府重新开门公布数据后带来的短期动荡，以及美国信 贷市场热掩盖的投资者风险溢价不足等，都可能成为本轮美债涨势的威胁。 美债将录得2020年来最佳年度表现？ Badgley Phelps财富管理公司的固定收益经理斯普戈（Cal Spranger）则透露："我这段时间作为 债券经理参加了多场客户会议，而过去几年，我始终没有被邀请参加任何活动。尽管美国国债和企业 债收益率逐渐下降，但仍远高于过去十年大部分时间的水平，因而投资者仍希望在可能的情况下，将 这一较高收益锁定，助推了美债走势。" 此外，斯普戈表示，特朗普政府的一些政策也助力了美债市场近期的涨势。特朗普政府一直密切关注 市场，甚至在美债市场动荡时期突然介入。美国财政部部长贝森特近期也表示，保持长期美债的低收 益率是政府的首要任务，因为从抵押贷款到学生贷款，都会受到基准美债收益率的影响。 仍面临这些威胁 但也有市 ...

Core Insights - The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index has returned approximately 6.7% year-to-date, potentially marking its best annual performance since 2020 [1][2] - Optimism regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has overshadowed concerns about the U.S. fiscal deficit, leading to positive market expectations for U.S. Treasuries [1][2] - Despite the positive outlook, analysts warn of potential threats to the current bond rally, including uncertainties surrounding Fed rate cuts and the impact of government data releases [1][4] Group 1: Market Performance - The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, which includes U.S. Treasuries, investment-grade corporate bonds, and agency mortgage-backed securities, has shown a return of 6.7% this year, significantly outperforming short-term U.S. Treasuries [2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield recently closed at 4.147%, down nearly 0.5 percentage points, reflecting a decline in yields amid investor concerns about fiscal prospects [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming October FOMC meeting, although there are significant internal divisions among officials regarding the direction of monetary policy [3] - The likelihood of a rate cut in December remains uncertain, with current employment and inflation trends showing no significant changes [3] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Risks - Investors are currently optimistic about locking in higher yields from U.S. Treasuries and corporate bonds, despite the yields being higher than most of the past decade [3] - Concerns persist regarding the U.S. government's budget deficit, projected at $1.8 trillion for fiscal year 2025, which could pressure the bond market [4] - The spread between investment-grade corporate bonds and U.S. Treasuries has narrowed to 0.72 percentage points, the lowest since the late 1990s, raising concerns about potential overvaluation and risk in the corporate bond market [5]

Group 1 - The global asset performance in September shows that global stocks outperformed other asset classes, with a return of 3.31%, followed by global bonds at 0.65%, and commodities at 0.05% [2] - The international spot gold price has recently continued its strong upward momentum, breaking through $3,800 per ounce at the end of September, driven by multiple systemic factors and market sentiment [4][12] - Despite the U.S. government shutdown, the stock market showed resilience, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 reaching historical highs, buoyed by optimistic market sentiment and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [4][17] Group 2 - The credit spread for U.S. high-yield corporate bonds narrowed to a historical low of 2.67% by the end of September 2025, indicating high investor confidence in corporate credit quality [5][20] - Global fund managers increased their allocations to stocks, pharmaceuticals, communications, consumer discretionary, and technology, while reducing exposure to the UK, utilities, energy, Eurozone, and emerging markets [6][23] - The Indian stock market has underperformed the MSCI Asia-Pacific index for five consecutive months, reflecting a divergence between foreign and domestic investor sentiment [6][28] Group 3 - Speculative net positions in Japanese yen have decreased to 79,500 contracts, indicating a waning bullish sentiment towards the yen [6][31] - The volatility ratio of emerging market currencies to G7 currencies has continued to decline, reaching a low of 0.76, improving the risk-return profile for carry trades [6][36] - The scale of reserves held by banks at the Federal Reserve has fallen below $3 trillion, the lowest level since the beginning of the year, due to large-scale Treasury issuance and ongoing quantitative tightening [6][39] Group 4 - The S&P 500 index and the MOVE index (a measure of U.S. Treasury market volatility) have shown a strong correlation, suggesting that the current stock market rally is supported by low interest rate volatility [6][42] - The overnight interbank offered rate in Hong Kong surged to 5.35%, the highest level in nearly a year, highlighting short-term funding market tensions [6][45] Group 5 - From a fundamental perspective, the weekly economic activity index has shown signs of recovery, indicating a potential divergence between asset prices and economic fundamentals [6][47] - From a sentiment perspective, the market sentiment index has rebounded, reflecting improved investor confidence [6][63]

金十数据5月28日讯，巴克莱分析师在一份报告中指出，由于外汇对冲后回报具有吸引力，日本投资者 持续将资金投入美国投资级企业债。分析师表示，外汇对冲成本上升正促使日本投资者更青睐美国投资 级企业债，而非美国国债。在日本央行过去宽松政策推动的国内低收益率环境下追求利差收益，加上近 年来外汇对冲成本上升，共同推动了对海外利差产品的强劲需求。 巴克莱：外汇对冲回报吸引 日本投资者转向美投资级企业债 ...