Group 1: Core Outlook and Asset Allocation - The report anticipates a strong performance of risk assets by 2026, driven by improvements in micro fundamentals, accelerated AI capital expenditures, and a favorable policy environment, with global market trends influenced by the U.S. [1] - Recommendations include prioritizing equity investments, followed by credit and government bonds, with a preference for U.S. assets; overweighting equities (+5%), U.S. high-yield bonds (+3%), and agency mortgage-backed securities (+3%), while underweighting commodities (-4%), cash (-3%), and U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds (-4%) [1] Group 2: Global Stock Market - The U.S. stock market is expected to outperform other global markets, benefiting from positive operating leverage, pro-cyclical policies, and AI-driven efficiency improvements, with a target for the S&P 500 index at 7,800 points by the end of 2026 (14% increase from current levels) and a projected EPS compound annual growth rate of 14% from 2025 to 2027 [1] - The Japanese stock market is also viewed positively, supported by re-inflation and improvements in return on equity (ROE), with a target for the TOPIX index at 3,600 points (+7%); however, Europe and emerging markets (excluding India and Brazil) lack similar positive catalysts [1] Group 3: Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - G10 interest rates are expected to exhibit a "lower first, higher later" pattern, with the Federal Reserve anticipated to cut rates by 50 basis points in the first half of 2026, leading to a mid-term drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 3.75%, before rising to 4.05% by year-end [2] - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) is projected to decline to 94 in the first half of the year, followed by a rebound to 99 in the second half, with risk currencies like the Australian dollar and Swedish krona initially leading, while the euro and pound may struggle due to central bank rate cuts [2] Group 4: Credit and Securitized Products - Corporate credit is expected to benefit from increased capital expenditures, a revival in merger and acquisition activity, and accommodative policies, with high-yield bonds (HY) outperforming investment-grade bonds (IG) in both the U.S. and European markets [2] - There is a preference for 5-10 year maturities to capture rolling yields, with the financial sector expected to perform better than the cyclical sector; securitized products are anticipated to benefit from regulatory easing in the U.S. and Europe, with recommendations to increase holdings in short-term products and BBB- rated channel loan securities [2] Group 5: Commodities - The report indicates that metals are expected to outperform energy, with Brent crude oil projected to stabilize around $60 per barrel; gold is highlighted as a preferred asset, supported by macro factors and strong physical demand, with a target price of $4,500 per ounce [3] - Among industrial metals, copper and aluminum are favored due to significant supply challenges, while in agricultural products, soybean prices are expected to reach a target of $11.7 per bushel over the next 12-18 months, surpassing corn prices at $4.7 per bushel [3]

虽然今年一段时间以来表现疲软，但近期，美债交易员对美联储降息乐观预期压过了对财政赤字的担 忧，美债有望迎来2020年来最佳年度表现。 然而，从美联储降息前景，到政府重新开门公布数据后带来的短期动荡，以及美国信贷市场热掩盖的投 资者风险溢价不足，都可能成为本轮美债涨势的威胁。 特朗普政府助力美债市场近期涨势 在美联储持续降息后，就业增长和消费支出正在放缓。虽然美联储官员近期分歧的表态令美股市场承 压，但美债市场仍在押注美联储进一步降息，且认为即使美国经济陷入衰退，也不会威胁到企业的资产 负债表。此外，美债投资者认为，尽管美国总统特朗普的关税政策将推高物价，但通胀压力仍在持续缓 和。 在美国政府重开之前，数据的有限性或限制美债的波动性，更倾向于窄幅波动。"他称，"与此同时，下 一任美联储主席的遴选取得进展，目前候选人减少至5人。无论是哪位当选，其政策主张都偏鸽派，我 们仍然认为货币政策宽松的可能性更高，或将带来美债利率的下行。" Badgley Phelps财富管理公司的固定收益经理斯普戈（Cal Spranger）则透露："我这段时间作为债券经理 参加了多场客户会议，而过去几年，我始终没有被邀请参加任何活动。尽 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent optimism among U.S. Treasury traders regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has overshadowed concerns about the U.S. fiscal deficit, leading to expectations that U.S. Treasuries may achieve their best annual performance since 2020 [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index has returned approximately 6.7% year-to-date, potentially marking its best annual return since 2020 [5]. - In 2023, the index's return was 5.5%, with a stagnation expected in 2024, contrasting with previous years where short-term U.S. Treasuries were preferred for risk diversification [6]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's recent FOMC meeting saw a division among officials regarding interest rate cuts, with some advocating for a 50 basis point cut, while others opposed any cuts [7]. - Despite a weak employment trend, the likelihood of a rate cut in December remains high, suggesting that long-term interest rates may not sustain upward momentum [7]. Group 3: Fiscal Concerns - The U.S. government's budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 is projected at $1.8 trillion, unchanged from 2024, which could exert pressure on the bond market [9]. - The futures market indicates a 46% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut, down from 67% a week prior, highlighting uncertainty around future monetary policy [9]. Group 4: Corporate Bond Market Risks - Analysts express concerns that the rising U.S. credit market may mask risks associated with historically high valuations of corporate bonds, leading to insufficient risk premiums for investors [10]. - The spread between investment-grade U.S. corporate bonds and U.S. Treasuries narrowed to 0.72 percentage points in September, the lowest since the late 1990s, indicating potential over-speculation in the market [10].

Core Insights - The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index has returned approximately 6.7% year-to-date, potentially marking its best annual performance since 2020 [1][2] - Optimism regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has overshadowed concerns about the U.S. fiscal deficit, leading to positive market expectations for U.S. Treasuries [1][2] - Despite the positive outlook, analysts warn of potential threats to the current bond rally, including uncertainties surrounding Fed rate cuts and the impact of government data releases [1][4] Group 1: Market Performance - The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, which includes U.S. Treasuries, investment-grade corporate bonds, and agency mortgage-backed securities, has shown a return of 6.7% this year, significantly outperforming short-term U.S. Treasuries [2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield recently closed at 4.147%, down nearly 0.5 percentage points, reflecting a decline in yields amid investor concerns about fiscal prospects [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming October FOMC meeting, although there are significant internal divisions among officials regarding the direction of monetary policy [3] - The likelihood of a rate cut in December remains uncertain, with current employment and inflation trends showing no significant changes [3] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Risks - Investors are currently optimistic about locking in higher yields from U.S. Treasuries and corporate bonds, despite the yields being higher than most of the past decade [3] - Concerns persist regarding the U.S. government's budget deficit, projected at $1.8 trillion for fiscal year 2025, which could pressure the bond market [4] - The spread between investment-grade corporate bonds and U.S. Treasuries has narrowed to 0.72 percentage points, the lowest since the late 1990s, raising concerns about potential overvaluation and risk in the corporate bond market [5]

Group 1 - The global asset performance in September shows that global stocks outperformed other asset classes, with a return of 3.31%, followed by global bonds at 0.65%, and commodities at 0.05% [2] - The international spot gold price has recently continued its strong upward momentum, breaking through $3,800 per ounce at the end of September, driven by multiple systemic factors and market sentiment [4][12] - Despite the U.S. government shutdown, the stock market showed resilience, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 reaching historical highs, buoyed by optimistic market sentiment and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [4][17] Group 2 - The credit spread for U.S. high-yield corporate bonds narrowed to a historical low of 2.67% by the end of September 2025, indicating high investor confidence in corporate credit quality [5][20] - Global fund managers increased their allocations to stocks, pharmaceuticals, communications, consumer discretionary, and technology, while reducing exposure to the UK, utilities, energy, Eurozone, and emerging markets [6][23] - The Indian stock market has underperformed the MSCI Asia-Pacific index for five consecutive months, reflecting a divergence between foreign and domestic investor sentiment [6][28] Group 3 - Speculative net positions in Japanese yen have decreased to 79,500 contracts, indicating a waning bullish sentiment towards the yen [6][31] - The volatility ratio of emerging market currencies to G7 currencies has continued to decline, reaching a low of 0.76, improving the risk-return profile for carry trades [6][36] - The scale of reserves held by banks at the Federal Reserve has fallen below $3 trillion, the lowest level since the beginning of the year, due to large-scale Treasury issuance and ongoing quantitative tightening [6][39] Group 4 - The S&P 500 index and the MOVE index (a measure of U.S. Treasury market volatility) have shown a strong correlation, suggesting that the current stock market rally is supported by low interest rate volatility [6][42] - The overnight interbank offered rate in Hong Kong surged to 5.35%, the highest level in nearly a year, highlighting short-term funding market tensions [6][45] Group 5 - From a fundamental perspective, the weekly economic activity index has shown signs of recovery, indicating a potential divergence between asset prices and economic fundamentals [6][47] - From a sentiment perspective, the market sentiment index has rebounded, reflecting improved investor confidence [6][63]

金十数据5月28日讯，巴克莱分析师在一份报告中指出，由于外汇对冲后回报具有吸引力，日本投资者 持续将资金投入美国投资级企业债。分析师表示，外汇对冲成本上升正促使日本投资者更青睐美国投资 级企业债，而非美国国债。在日本央行过去宽松政策推动的国内低收益率环境下追求利差收益，加上近 年来外汇对冲成本上升，共同推动了对海外利差产品的强劲需求。 巴克莱：外汇对冲回报吸引 日本投资者转向美投资级企业债 ...