Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the short-term view is bullish, the medium-term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish. The core logic is that the macro atmosphere weakens and the demand for hedging rises. The macro level shows a weak US dollar index, which is beneficial to the gold price. There is significant technical pressure at the 4380 US dollars level for New York gold and the 980 yuan level for Shanghai gold. After the China-US summit in Busan at the end of October, the market risk appetite has continued to rise, and the gold price has shown a high-level oscillatory trend [1][3]. - For copper, the short-term view is oscillatory, the medium-term view is bullish, and the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish. The core logic is that the macro environment is loose and there is a reduction in mine supply. The US dollar is falling, which is beneficial to non-ferrous metals. The spot discount is weakening, and the 1 - 2 month spread is also continuously weakening, showing a pattern where the near - term is weak and the far - term is strong [1][4]. Summary by Related Catalog Gold - Short - term: Bullish [1] - Medium - term: Oscillatory [1] - Intraday: Oscillatory and bullish [1] - Core Logic: The macro atmosphere weakens, the demand for hedging rises. The US dollar index is weak, which is beneficial to the gold price. There is technical pressure at 4380 US dollars for New York gold and 980 yuan for Shanghai gold. After the China - US summit in Busan, the market risk appetite has risen, and the gold price is oscillating at a high level. Technically, pay attention to the resistance at the 4400 US dollars level [3]. Copper - Short - term: Oscillatory [1] - Medium - term: Bullish [1] - Intraday: Oscillatory and bullish [1] - Core Logic: The macro environment is loose and there is a reduction in mine supply. The US dollar is falling, which benefits non - ferrous metals. The spot discount is weakening, and the 1 - 2 month spread is also weakening, presenting a near - weak and far - strong pattern. Technically, pay attention to the long - short game at the 93,000 yuan level [4].

Report Overview - The report is the precious metals and non - ferrous metals morning report of Baocheng Futures on December 18, 2025, covering gold and copper [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term and show a short - line upward trend, while it will be in a volatile state in the medium - term. Copper is expected to be strong in the long - term and volatile in the short - term, with a strong performance in the medium - term [1]. Summary by Variety Gold - **Price Performance**: Last night, the price of gold was strong. New York gold once reached $4380, and Shanghai gold reached the 980 - yuan mark [3]. - **Market Analysis**: Since last Friday, risk appetite has decreased significantly, as shown by the continuous decline of the U.S. stock market at a high level. This has increased the demand for hedging and pushed up the price of gold. Since the China - U.S. summit in Busan at the end of October, the market risk appetite has continued to recover, and the price of gold has been in a high - level volatile state [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: In the short - term, attention can be paid to the high - level pressure at the end of October [3]. - **Viewpoint**: Short - term: bullish; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: volatile and bullish [1][3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Last night, the price of copper rose first and then fell. LME copper once reached the $11,800 mark, and Shanghai copper once touched 93,500 yuan [4]. - **Market Analysis**: At the macro level, the short - term decline in market liquidity and risk appetite has put pressure on the copper price, but copper is relatively resistant to decline due to its financial attributes. At the industrial level, the spot is at a discount, and the 1 - 2 month spread is weakening, showing a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, indicating that the domestic spot circulation is not tight [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: In the short - term, continuous attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [4]. - **Viewpoint**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: bullish; Intraday: volatile and bullish; Long - term: bullish [1][4].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pattern of stable gold and rising silver continues, supported by macro - easing and geopolitical uncertainties. Gold remains stable at a high level, while silver accelerates its upward movement and touches $66 under the impetus of funds, with short - term fluctuations increasing but the medium - term direction unchanged [1] - The resonance of macro and geopolitical variables continues, and the gold price enters the high - level repricing stage. The market's pricing of further interest rate cuts has not fully subsided before the US inflation data is released, and the Fed's continuous interest rate cuts and the downward shift of the real interest rate center provide medium - term support for precious metals. Geopolitical premiums are re - embedded in the gold price due to the US pressure on Venezuela's energy transportation and rising regional military risks. Gold is more likely to digest the parabolic rise through high - level oscillations in the short term [3] - The year - to - date increase of silver has significantly expanded and recently reached a record high of $66 per ounce. It is a result of the concentrated allocation behavior of funds to high - elasticity assets under the logic of gold revaluation. The continuous net inflow of ETF funds strengthens the trend trading but also increases short - term congestion. The short - term price has high sensitivity to various factors, and there is a need to digest over - heated indicators. However, the medium - term bullish logic for silver remains [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Key Information - The US is considering sanctions against the so - called "shadow fleet" tankers for transporting Russian oil and the traders facilitating related transactions. These measures are being prepared and may be launched as early as this week if Russian President Putin refuses to reach a proposed peace agreement with Ukraine [2] - Germany's manufacturing industry is a drag factor, with the output index falling to 49.4, ending nine consecutive months of growth. The manufacturing PMI drops to 47.7, staying in the contraction range for the second consecutive month. France's manufacturing shows positive signals, with the PMI rising to 50.6, reaching a 40 - month high, and the manufacturing output index rebounding significantly to 49.7 from 45.0 in November, hitting a four - month high [2] - US President Trump signed an executive order on Monday, classifying fentanyl as a "weapon of mass destruction", which greatly expands the US government's authority to combat the illegal trafficking of this synthetic opioid [2] 2. Price Logic - For gold, the resonance of macro and geopolitical variables continues, and it enters the high - level repricing stage. Before the US inflation data is released, the market's pricing of further interest rate cuts has not fully subsided. The Fed's continuous interest rate cuts and the downward shift of the real interest rate center support precious metals in the medium term. Geopolitical premiums are re - embedded in the gold price. Gold is more likely to digest the parabolic rise through high - level oscillations in the short term rather than a rapid reversal [3] - For silver, its year - to - date increase has significantly expanded and recently reached a record high of $66 per ounce. It reflects the concentrated allocation behavior of funds to high - elasticity assets under the logic of gold revaluation. The continuous net inflow of ETF funds strengthens the trend trading but also increases short - term congestion. The short - term price has high sensitivity to various factors. There is a need to digest over - heated indicators through high - level oscillations or pullbacks. However, in the medium term, the bullish logic for silver remains, and it is more likely to operate in a pattern of "sharp rise - correction - repricing" [3] 3. Outlook - In the short term, the focus for London gold is in the range of [$4150, $4500] per ounce, and for London silver, it is in the range of [$60, $67] per ounce [6] 4. Index Information Comprehensive Index - No detailed information provided Special Index - The Commodity Index is 2262.95, up 0.56%; the Commodity 20 Index is 2590.35, up 0.57%; the Industrial Products Index is 2189.88, up 0.45%; the PPI Commodity Index is 1358.64, up 0.52% [48] Sector Index - The Precious Metals Index on December 17, 2025, is 3714.40, with a daily increase of 2.35%, a 5 - day increase of 3.74%, a 1 - month increase of 10.96%, and a year - to - date increase of 67.89% [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term and may maintain a strong run due to increased market risk - aversion as the macro - environment weakens. In the medium - term, it will be in a volatile state, and in the long - term, it has shown a high - level volatile trend since late October. [1][3] - Copper is expected to be strong in the long - term. Although it is under pressure in the short - term due to decreased market risk preference and liquidity, it is supported by downstream replenishment demand and low LME inventories. [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Short - term**: The short - term view is bullish. After the macro - environment took a turn for the worse since last Friday, overseas stocks and commodities generally declined, and the short - term liquidity of gold decreased significantly. The impact of the interest - rate meeting has been fully digested, and the market's risk - aversion demand has risen rapidly, so the price of gold may maintain a strong run. [1][3] - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view is volatile. Since late October when Sino - US relations eased, the price of gold has been in a high - level volatile state, and attention can be paid to the technical pressure at the $4400 mark. [3] - **Intraday**: The intraday view is volatile and bullish. Yesterday, the price of gold in the Asian session fluctuated downward and then rose and fell back at night. The US non - farm payroll data last night was mixed, and the short - term fluctuation of gold was not obvious. [3] Copper - **Short - term**: The short - term view is volatile. Yesterday, the price of copper in the Asian session decreased with reduced positions, dropping nearly 2000 yuan/ton from the high. The market risk preference and liquidity decreased, putting pressure on the copper price. However, it is relatively resistant in the non - ferrous sector due to its strong financial attributes. [1][4] - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view is bullish. As the copper price drops, the downstream replenishment willingness in the industry increases, and the low LME inventories strongly support the copper price. [1][4] - **Intraday**: The intraday view is volatile and bullish. The long - short game has intensified, and the copper price shows a pattern of being strong overseas and weak in China. Attention can be paid to the support of the 10 - day moving average. [4]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a core logic of a weakening macro atmosphere and rising risk - aversion demand [1][3] - Copper is expected to be strong in the long - term, due to a macro - easing environment, mine - end production cuts, and the implementation of interest rate cuts [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - Short - term view: Strong; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Intraday view: Oscillating and tending to be strong; Overall reference view: Strong in the short - line. The price has been rising since last week, reaching near the $4400 mark on Monday night. After a dovish Fed meeting, the short - term market risk preference and liquidity increased, but on Friday night, the macro atmosphere worsened. The short - term impact of the meeting has been digested, and risk - aversion demand has risen rapidly, so the price may remain strong. Tonight's US non - farm data may affect short - term trends, and the $4400 mark is a technical resistance in the medium - to - long - term [1][3] Copper (CU) - Short - term view: Oscillating; Medium - term view: Strong; Intraday view: Oscillating and tending to be strong; Overall reference view: Strong in the long - line. After the Asian session yesterday, LME copper soared close to $11,900, and SHFE copper opened higher at night, approaching the 94,000 yuan mark. Then the price fell back, and the long - position closing intention was strong. The non - ferrous sector declined, but copper was resilient due to its strong financial properties. The sharp drop last Friday stimulated downstream replenishment demand, and the spot premium in Guangdong increased, indicating actual demand resilience. The short - term price volatility is large, and both sides tend to close positions. Tonight's US non - farm employment data may affect short - term trends, and the 5 - day moving average can be monitored [1][4]

第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 天然橡胶上周泰国南部和越南东南部天气扰动消退减弱浅色系支撑，而印尼、马来西亚持续降雨引发局地洪 涝，叠加下游刚性需求，深色胶支撑较强，周内持续反弹，深浅色价差有回缩。目前天然橡胶库存尤其是青 岛保税区库存维持累库，老全乳去库，深浅库存比持续走高。汽车配套需求较强，但一定程度受"以旧换新"补 贴和新能源补贴退坡带来的零售促销与需求前置影响，后续增长或承压；轮胎产销和出口环比下降，下游库 存压力仍高，交投情绪较弱。长期固定资产投资和房地产投资持续下滑，内需增长承压且出口阻碍仍存，长 期需求预期偏弱。美联储12月如预期降息25基点，美联储主席表态和美国就业疲软共同利好后续降息预期； 国内货币政策稳定续做，市场流动性担忧较小；中央经济工作会议、全国发展和改革工作会议召开，明确促 投资、扩内需、稳财政以及"反内卷"等重要内容，市场氛围偏暖有助橡胶估值抬升。橡胶系随情绪维持区间震 荡，后市预计维持宽幅震荡格局，其中浅色胶相对偏强看待。 南华期货天然橡胶产业周报 ——美联储降息与国内会议召开助暖宏观，印尼天气扰动带来支撑 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647） 研究助理： 黄 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 12 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 降息预期升温，俄乌趋于缓和 | | 铜 | 2601 | 强势 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松，矿端减产 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 期货研究报告 参考观点： ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach due to rising interest - rate cut expectations and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation [1]. - For copper, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all strong. It is recommended to take a long - term bullish view because of the macro - economic easing and mine - end production cuts [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the gold price oscillated and weakened. New York gold approached the $4200 mark, and Shanghai gold approached the 950 - yuan mark [3]. - **Driving Force**: Since late November, the upward momentum of the gold price has mainly come from the continuous rise in the market's expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut and the decline of the US dollar index from a high level. The short - term market has fully priced in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the recovery of market risk appetite has put pressure on the gold price. As the Fed's December interest - rate meeting approaches, the short - term market has become more cautious, and gold price fluctuations have decreased, waiting for the meeting results [3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the copper price first rose and then fell. The main futures price once reached the 93,000 - yuan mark. At night, the positions of Shanghai copper slightly decreased, and the willingness of long - position holders to take profits increased [4]. - **Driving Force**: Since late November, the market's expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut in December has risen, creating a macro - economic easing trading atmosphere and strengthening the financial attribute of copper. Copper is in an industrial background of supply contraction. The resonance of macro - economic and industrial positive factors has pushed the copper price to break through the 90,000 - yuan mark. In terms of funds, both the positions of Shanghai copper in China and London copper overseas have increased significantly, and the attention of funds has risen rapidly. In the short and medium terms, the macro - economic factors drive the copper price up, and the attention of funds is high, with strong upward momentum. However, due to the large short - term increase in the copper price and the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate meeting, the number of long - position holders taking profits may increase [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term is偏弱, the medium - term is震荡, and the intraday is震荡偏弱, with a view of观望 due to rising interest - rate cut expectations and easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation [1]. - For copper, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday are all强势, with a view of长线看强 because of macro - economic easing and mine - end production cuts [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Price Performance**: Last week, gold prices showed high - level volatility, and Shanghai gold faced resistance at the 960 level [3]. - **Driving Factors**: Since late November, the upward momentum of gold prices mainly comes from the continuous rise in expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cuts and the decline of the US dollar index. However, short - term market pricing of Fed's interest - rate cut expectations is relatively sufficient, and the recovery of market risk appetite puts pressure on gold prices. The decline of the gold - silver ratio and the gold - copper ratio reflects the recovery of risk appetite [3]. - **Recommendation**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and keep an eye on the Fed's December interest - rate meeting [3]. Copper (CU) - **Price Performance**: Last week, the price of the main contract of Shanghai copper exceeded 90,000 yuan/ton, and the price of LME copper reached over 11,000 US dollars/ton, both hitting record highs [4]. - **Driving Factors**: The sharp rise is driven by supply contraction, macro - economic expectations, and financial capital. The root cause is the "mine shortage" upstream. Many major global copper mines have significantly reduced production this year due to accidents and shutdowns, leading to a shortage of copper concentrate supply. Since late November, the expectation of the Fed's December interest - rate cut has created a macro - economic easing trading atmosphere and strengthened the financial attributes of copper. The price difference between COMEX and LME has led traders to transport a large amount of global inventory to the US, increasing the expectation of spot inventory shortage in non - US regions. The market has a strong consensus on a bullish outlook, and funds have flowed in significantly [4]. - **Recommendation**: Take a long - term bullish view and pay attention to the Fed's December interest - rate meeting [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the short - term and mid - term views are both "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". The core logic is that the Fed has turned hawkish, reducing the expectation of interest rate cuts [1][3]. - For copper, the short - term view is "oscillation", the mid - term view is "strong", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "long - term bullish". The core logic is macro - level easing and mine - end production cuts [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Since Tuesday this week, the gold price has rebounded after hitting a low. New York gold rebounded after falling below $4000 and reached the $4100 mark last night. Shanghai gold once rebounded above 940 last night [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The recent decline in precious metals was mainly due to hawkish remarks from multiple Fed officials, which reduced the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. However, the downward revision of the interest - rate - cut expectation was largely due to the market's previous optimistic expectations, and its sustainability is not strong, and it will return to being data - driven. The market sentiment has improved significantly, and the market's sentiment of reduced interest - rate - cut expectation has been released, leading to short - term emotional repair [3]. - **Key Data**: Pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls data for September to be released on Thursday this week and subsequent economic data, which will directly affect the market's expectation of Fed policies and determine the short - term trend of precious metals [3]. - **Long - term Impact**: After the APEC meeting between Chinese and US leaders at the end of October, market risk appetite has increased. If there is significant progress in the Russia - Ukraine situation, the gold price may continue to be under pressure [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: Pay attention to the support at the $4000 mark below and the resistance at $4200 above [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Shanghai copper showed a slightly upward oscillation yesterday, and the main contract price stood above the 86,000 mark [4]. - **Driving Factors**: At the macro level, the market has warmed up, precious metals have rebounded significantly, and non - ferrous metals have also shown a rebound trend. The short - term market sentiment towards the Fed's hawkish stance has been released, and the market may experience emotional repair. In the industry, spot trading has also improved [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: Pay attention to the support at the 86,000 mark [4].