投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 12 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 降息预期升温，俄乌趋于缓和 | | 铜 | 2601 | 强势 | 强势 | 强势 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松，矿端减产 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：昨日金价震荡走弱，纽约金下探 4200 美元关口，沪金下探 950 元关口。11 月下旬以来金 价上行的动力主要 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 12 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 降息预期升温，俄乌趋于缓和 | | 铜 | 2601 | 强势 | 强势 | 强势 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松，矿端减产 | 说明： 核心逻辑：上周金价呈现高位震荡运行，沪金在 960 关口遭遇一定阻力。11 月下旬以来金价上行的 动力主要来自于美联储降息预期持续升温，美元指数高位回落。短期市场对美联储降息预期计价较为 充分，而市场风险偏好回升使金价承压。近期无论是金银比还是金铜比均呈现明显下行态势，这一定 程度上反映了是否风险偏好的回升。可持续关注美联储 12 月议息会议，谨防美联储转鹰使金价承压。 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the short - term and mid - term views are both "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". The core logic is that the Fed has turned hawkish, reducing the expectation of interest rate cuts [1][3]. - For copper, the short - term view is "oscillation", the mid - term view is "strong", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "long - term bullish". The core logic is macro - level easing and mine - end production cuts [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Since Tuesday this week, the gold price has rebounded after hitting a low. New York gold rebounded after falling below $4000 and reached the $4100 mark last night. Shanghai gold once rebounded above 940 last night [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The recent decline in precious metals was mainly due to hawkish remarks from multiple Fed officials, which reduced the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. However, the downward revision of the interest - rate - cut expectation was largely due to the market's previous optimistic expectations, and its sustainability is not strong, and it will return to being data - driven. The market sentiment has improved significantly, and the market's sentiment of reduced interest - rate - cut expectation has been released, leading to short - term emotional repair [3]. - **Key Data**: Pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls data for September to be released on Thursday this week and subsequent economic data, which will directly affect the market's expectation of Fed policies and determine the short - term trend of precious metals [3]. - **Long - term Impact**: After the APEC meeting between Chinese and US leaders at the end of October, market risk appetite has increased. If there is significant progress in the Russia - Ukraine situation, the gold price may continue to be under pressure [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: Pay attention to the support at the $4000 mark below and the resistance at $4200 above [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Shanghai copper showed a slightly upward oscillation yesterday, and the main contract price stood above the 86,000 mark [4]. - **Driving Factors**: At the macro level, the market has warmed up, precious metals have rebounded significantly, and non - ferrous metals have also shown a rebound trend. The short - term market sentiment towards the Fed's hawkish stance has been released, and the market may experience emotional repair. In the industry, spot trading has also improved [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: Pay attention to the support at the 86,000 mark [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, due to the Fed turning hawkish, the gold price has declined in the short - term. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach as the downward revision of the interest - rate cut expectation may not be sustainable and subsequent economic data will be crucial for its short - term trend [1][3]. - For copper, although there is short - term volatility due to the Fed's hawkish stance and technical pressure at historical highs, in the long - run, it is expected to be strong as macro - economic easing and supply contraction are likely to support the copper price [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Trends**: The New York gold hit the bottom and rebounded at the $4000 mark. The gold price is expected to be in a short - term shock, medium - term shock, and intraday shock - weak pattern [3]. - **Driving Factors**: Fed officials' hawkish remarks have led to a decline in the market's interest - rate cut expectation. As of November 18, the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut has dropped below 50%, compared to over 70% in early November. The focus should be on the September US non - farm payroll data to be released this Thursday and subsequent economic data, which will determine the short - term trend of precious metals. Technically, the $4000 mark support should be monitored [3]. Copper - **Price Trends**: The copper price rebounded last night. The main contract price of Shanghai copper once recovered the 86,000 mark and then declined, with a slight increase in open interest. It is expected to be in a short - term shock, medium - term strong, and intraday shock - strong pattern [4]. - **Driving Factors**: The market's expectation of a December 2025 interest - rate cut has dropped below 50%. The London copper is at a near - 5 - year high and faces strong technical pressure. In the medium - to - long - term, macro - economic easing and supply contraction are expected to support the copper price. Technically, the long - short battle at the 86,000 mark should be monitored [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For gold, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias" respectively, with a reference view of "wait - and - see". The core logic is that the Fed turning hawkish has led to a short - term decline in gold prices [1][3]. - For copper, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "strong", "strong", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias" respectively, with a reference view of "long - term bullish". The core logic is that macro - economic easing and supply contraction expectations will support copper prices in the long run [1][4]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - Last week, gold prices first rose and then fell. The rise was due to the restoration of market liquidity after the US government "re - opened", with New York gold rebounding above $4200 and Shanghai gold above 960 yuan. The sharp decline on Friday was mainly due to the Fed turning hawkish. In the short term, gold prices have fallen after rising, and long - position holders have a strong willingness to close positions. Continuously monitor the support at the $4000 level for New York gold [3]. Copper (CU) - Last week, copper prices also first rose and then fell, similar to the trend of gold prices. The rise was due to the US Senate reaching an agreement to end the federal government "shutdown", which increased market risk appetite and restored market liquidity. The decline was due to the Fed turning hawkish and the decrease in market expectations of interest rate cuts. Additionally, LME copper is at a near - 5 - year high and faces strong technical pressure. In the long - term, macro - economic easing and supply contraction expectations will support copper prices. In the short term, monitor the resistance at the $11,000 level for LME copper [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a short - term view of being bullish, due to the decline of the US dollar index and the recovery of gold prices. Copper is expected to be strong in the long - term, supported by macro - economic easing and mine production cuts [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Last night, the gold price rose and then fell, with New York gold falling below $4200. Recently, precious metals have regained their upward momentum, with silver performing strongly and the gold - silver ratio continuously declining. Non - ferrous metals have also generally risen [3]. - **Driving Logic**: The likely reason for the rise is the recovery of market liquidity after the news that the US government reopened. The US dollar index also gave support to the gold price as it fell back after reaching the 100 mark. The short - term focus is on the resistance at the $4200 level [3]. - **Viewpoint**: Short - term view is strong, mid - term view is oscillating, and intraday view is oscillating and bullish [1][3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Last night, the copper price rose and then fell, with LME copper once reaching $11,000. However, copper's performance was relatively weak compared to other non - ferrous metals, possibly due to its large previous gains and being at a near 5 - year high [4]. - **Driving Logic**: Macro - economically, the US Senate's agreement to end the federal government shutdown has led to an increase in market risk appetite and a recovery in market liquidity, resulting in a general rise in non - ferrous metals. In the medium - to - long term, macro - economic easing and supply contraction expectations are likely to continue to support the copper price. The short - term focus is on the resistance at the $11,000 level of LME copper [4]. - **Viewpoint**: Long - term view is strong, mid - term view is strong, and intraday view is oscillating and bullish [1][4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Copper prices declined from a high level, with strong willingness among long - position holders to close their positions. Last week, Shanghai copper showed a trend of declining with reduced positions. The main contract price of Shanghai copper stabilized at around 85,000 yuan, and the decline in open interest also slowed down. Affected by the Fed's hawkish stance, the market sentiment turned cold, and the strong US dollar index pressured copper prices. Additionally, LME copper was at a near - 5 - year high, leading to strong short - term profit - taking intentions among long - position holders. In the second half of the week, the US dollar index retreated after reaching a high, facing some pressure at the 100 mark, corresponding to a sign of copper price stabilization and recovery. On the industrial level, as copper prices declined, downstream purchasing willingness recovered, and the spot premium strengthened. The domestic upstream electrolytic copper production has decreased significantly for two consecutive months. In the medium - to - long - term, macro - easing and supply contraction expectations may continue to support copper prices. In the short term, the support at the 85,000 - yuan mark can be continuously monitored [5][54]. - **Aluminum**: With positive domestic macro - economic conditions and the resurgence of the "anti - involution" expectation, aluminum prices showed strong performance. Last week, Shanghai aluminum showed a trend of rising with increased positions. The main contract price of Shanghai aluminum reached above 20,600 yuan, approaching the high in November 2024. At the macro level, the domestic "anti - involution" expectation was strong, and the relatively strong varieties in the third quarter all strengthened again. Industrially, global electrolytic aluminum inventories were at a low level, and the market expected that overseas electrolytic aluminum supply might be restricted by electricity. As aluminum prices strengthened, domestic downstream purchasing willingness declined, and the destocking of electrolytic aluminum social inventories slowed down. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the November 2024 high above and the support of the 10 - day moving average below [6][54]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors After the Fed's interest - rate meeting at the end of October, the overall US dollar index showed a strong performance, putting pressure on non - ferrous metals. Last week, the US dollar index retreated after reaching a high, showing some pressure at the 100 mark, corresponding to the stabilization and recovery of copper prices. The trend of the US dollar index can be continuously monitored [10]. 3.2 Copper - **Volume and Price Trends**: Shanghai copper declined with reduced positions last week, and the main contract price stabilized at around 85,000 yuan. The decline in open interest also slowed down. The US dollar index and market sentiment affected copper prices, and there was a sign of price recovery in the second half of the week [5][54]. - **Copper Ore Shortage**: No specific shortage - related analysis was provided in the text, but only relevant data charts such as copper concentrate port inventory and TC processing fees were presented [26]. - **Electrolytic Copper Stockpiling**: There were data on domestic and overseas electrolytic copper inventories, but no in - depth analysis of stockpiling was provided [28]. - **Downstream Initial - stage**: There was a chart of copper downstream monthly capacity utilization, but no detailed analysis [32]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Volume and Price Trends**: Shanghai aluminum rose with increased positions last week, and the main contract price reached above 20,600 yuan, approaching the high in November 2024. The macro - economic situation and market expectations affected aluminum prices [6][54]. - **Upstream Industry Chain**: There were data on bauxite port inventory and alumina price, but no in - depth analysis [42][46]. - **Slowed Destocking of Electrolytic Aluminum**: Global electrolytic aluminum inventories were at a low level, and the market expected overseas supply to be restricted by electricity. As aluminum prices strengthened, domestic downstream purchasing willingness declined, and the destocking of electrolytic aluminum social inventories slowed down [6][54]. - **Downstream Initial - stage**: There were data on aluminum rod capacity utilization, 6063 aluminum rod processing fees, and 6063 aluminum rod inventory, but no detailed analysis [48][50][53]. 3.4 Conclusion The conclusion is consistent with the core views, emphasizing the short - term and long - term trends of copper and aluminum prices, as well as the influencing factors from both macro and industrial levels [54].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term view is to maintain a wait - and - see attitude due to the Fed's hawkish stance and a relatively strong US dollar index. For copper, the long - term outlook is positive, supported by macro - economic easing and expected supply contractions [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Price Performance**: Gold prices are in a high - level consolidation phase, with New York gold mainly fluctuating around the $4,000 key psychological level [3]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's policy divergence dominates market sentiment, with some officials advocating a restrictive policy to control inflation and others open to rate cuts. The US government shutdown risk provides some safe - haven support for gold, while the strengthening US dollar suppresses gold prices. The short - term pullback of the US dollar index around 100 corresponds to a rebound in gold prices. Attention should be paid to the long - short battle at the $4,000 level of New York gold [3]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short - term (within a week), the view is "swing"; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), it is "swing"; the intraday view is "swing - bullish", and the reference view is "wait - and - see" [1][3]. Copper (CU) - **Price Performance**: Last week, Shanghai copper showed a trend of reducing positions and falling, and the main contract price stabilized around 85,000 yuan, with a slowdown in the decline of open interest [4]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's hawkish stance has cooled the market sentiment, and LME copper is at a five - year high, causing short - term long - position closure. However, in the long - run, macro - economic easing and supply contractions are expected to support copper prices. Attention should be paid to the technical support at the 85,000 yuan level [4]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short - term, the view is "bullish"; in the medium - term, it is "strong"; the intraday view is "swing - bullish", and the reference view is "long - term bullish" [1][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term view for gold 2512 is to be volatile, the medium - term view is to be volatile, and the intraday view is to be slightly stronger, with a suggestion to wait and see due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the Fed's hawkish stance. For copper 2512, the short - term view is to be stronger, the medium - term view is to be strong, the intraday view is to be slightly stronger, and the long - term view is to be bullish because of macro - level easing, mine - end production cuts, and a rapid increase in capital attention [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: After the Asian session yesterday, the gold price rose and then fell, and New York gold dropped below $4000 again. The short - term dollar index and gold price both declined, and the US stock market also fell, possibly due to short - term liquidity shortages. After the Fed's October interest - rate meeting, the market's expectation of interest - rate cuts decreased, causing the dollar index to strengthen continuously. The short - term dollar index reached a high near the 100 mark and then fell back, which may support the gold price. The gold price has retreated about 10% from its high, and the multi - empty game at the $4000 mark can be continuously monitored [3]. - **Viewpoint and Logic**: The short - term view is to be volatile, the medium - term view is to be volatile, the intraday view is to be slightly stronger, and the reference view is to wait and see. The core logic is the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the Fed's hawkish stance [1][3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: The copper price fell during the night session yesterday, with the main contract price dropping below 86,000, and the open interest decreased slightly. The short - term copper price fluctuated with the macro - sentiment. During the day, the domestic macro - atmosphere improved, and the copper price rebounded; at night, the overseas macro - atmosphere turned cold, and the copper price fell. The dollar index reached a high near the 100 mark and then fell back, which will support the copper price to some extent. On the industrial level, the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased slightly on Thursday, and the copper price dropped from its high, leading to a slight increase in the downstream's purchasing willingness. In the medium - to - long - term, macro - level easing and supply contraction may continue to support the copper price. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the technical support at the 85,000 mark [4]. - **Viewpoint and Logic**: The short - term view is to be stronger, the medium - term view is to be strong, the intraday view is to be slightly stronger, and the long - term view is to be bullish. The core logic is macro - level easing, mine - end production cuts, and a rapid increase in capital attention [1][4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - For gold, the short - term view is to observe the 4000 - dollar mark's long - short game due to short - term pressure from a strong dollar index and a 10% high - level retracement, with a mid - term view of oscillation and a reference view of waiting and seeing [1][3] - For copper, the long - term view is positive, considering the tight supply situation after the price correction. The mid - term view is upward, and the short - term is to pay attention to overseas COMEX copper inventory and domestic policy implementation [1][4] 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Price Situation**: Last week, the gold price dropped to $4000 and then oscillated, with the domestic Shanghai gold stabilizing around 900 yuan. The short - term gold price has retreated about 10% from its high [3] - **Driving Factors**: The short - term strengthening of the US dollar index has significantly pressured the gold price. After the October Fed meeting, the market's expectation of interest rate cuts decreased, leading to the continuous strengthening of the US dollar index [3] Copper - **Price Situation**: At the end of October, the main copper contract reached a record high of 89,000 yuan/ton and then declined. The price has fallen back to around the key support level of 85,000 yuan/ton [4] - **Driving Factors for the Correction**: - Macro - sentiment change: The previous macro - level positives such as Fed rate cuts and new Sino - US tariff agreements have been digested by the market, and the sentiment has returned to rationality [4] - US dollar strengthening: The rebound of the US dollar index has made copper more expensive for holders of other currencies, suppressing demand [4] - Technical pressure: After the price reached a record high, it triggered profit - taking by long - position holders [4] - **Future Outlook**: The tight supply situation has limited further price drops. It is necessary to continue to monitor overseas COMEX copper inventory and the implementation of domestic "anti - involution" policies [4]