Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 150.4 to 177.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10% to 30%. The net profit attributable to the listed company is projected to be between 18.9 to 22.7 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 25% to 50% [1][2]. - The strong performance in the home appliance sector, particularly in air conditioning, is expected to significantly contribute to the company's revenue growth. The retail sales growth rates for air conditioning in April and May were 12.2% and 38.7% offline, and 34.8% and 46% online, respectively [2]. - The successful IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange raised a net amount of 9.177 billion HKD, which will be used for global capacity expansion and to seize new business opportunities [2]. Financial Projections - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 32.201 billion yuan, 36.909 billion yuan, and 42.670 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.2%, 14.6%, and 15.6% [4][6]. - The net profit estimates for the same years are 3.812 billion yuan, 4.490 billion yuan, and 5.184 billion yuan, with growth rates of 23%, 17.8%, and 15.5% [4][6]. - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 28.4, 24.1, and 20.9 times, respectively [4][6].

Group 1: Policy Overview - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) will officially launch the third batch of appliance replacement subsidies in July, aimed at boosting domestic demand and promoting green consumption [1][3] - The subsidy policy is a continuation of the government's welfare initiatives, designed to stimulate consumer spending and support the transformation of the appliance industry [1][3] Group 2: Economic Impact - The appliance replacement policy serves as an effective tool for stabilizing growth and promoting consumption, especially in the current complex economic environment [3] - By providing subsidies, the government aims to lower consumer purchasing costs, stimulate demand, and drive the collaborative development of related industries such as production, sales, and logistics [3] Group 3: Industry Opportunities - The policy presents not only short-term sales growth for appliance companies but also long-term opportunities for industry upgrades [3] - Companies are encouraged to increase R&D investments and develop more energy-efficient, environmentally friendly, and smart products to meet rising consumer demands [3] Group 4: Environmental Significance - The replacement policy is crucial for promoting green development by addressing the high energy consumption and pollution issues associated with old appliances [5] - The initiative will help establish a more regulated recycling system for old appliances, reducing environmental pollution and supporting resource recycling [5] Group 5: Consumer Benefits - The upcoming subsidy policy represents a valuable shopping opportunity for consumers looking to replace old appliances or purchase new smart devices [7] - The initiative is expected to enhance consumer living standards while contributing to environmental protection, making it a win-win situation for both consumers and the economy [7]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Wanlian Securities indicates that the expansion of subsidy categories in 2025 will continue to support the release of consumer demand, with a notable 24% year-on-year growth in retail sales of home appliances and audio equipment in Q1 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - In Q1 2025, the home appliance sector experienced a rise due to the implementation of the "old-for-new" policy and export initiatives, but faced a decline due to tariff uncertainties, leading to an overall weak performance in the first half of the year [2]. - The total market value of public fund holdings in the home appliance sector was 120.37 billion yuan at the end of Q1 2025, remaining stable compared to Q4 2024, but showing a slight decrease of 0.1% [2]. - The current valuation of the home appliance index is at a low of 13.58 times TTM PE, indicating a high cost-performance ratio for the sector [2]. Group 2: Domestic Sales - The demand for new configurations is weakening, while the demand for replacements is driving growth in domestic sales [3]. - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, but the construction area is expected to decline further in 2025, impacting new housing demand [3]. - The share of second-hand housing transactions is increasing, establishing a solid foundation for replacement demand in home appliances [3]. Group 3: Policy Support - The "old-for-new" policy continues to be a driving force for domestic demand, with a total of 162 billion yuan in central funds allocated in January and April 2025 to support the initiative [4]. - An additional 138 billion yuan in central funds is expected to be distributed in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 [4]. Group 4: Export Outlook - In 2024, the export volume and value of home appliances increased by 20.8% and 14.1% year-on-year, respectively [5]. - From January to May 2025, the export volume and value continued to grow by 6.1% and 2.2% year-on-year, respectively, benefiting from the "export rush" effect [5]. - Despite uncertainties in tariffs, the dependence of China's home appliance exports on the U.S. market is limited, and the trend of increasing penetration in emerging markets is expected to support export resilience [5].

Core Insights - The home appliance industry is expected to benefit from the "old-for-new" policy, which is anticipated to drive significant sales growth in Q4 2024 and continue into 2025, supported by the gradual release of special bond quotas [1][2] - The real estate sector's post-cycle recovery is expected to bolster demand for appliance upgrades, with a notable increase in second-hand home transactions contributing to sales support [1][2] - Despite challenges from tariff wars, China's home appliance exports are projected to maintain growth due to the country's position as the world's largest producer and seller, with a low dependency on the U.S. market [1][2] Market Review - In H1 2025, the home appliance sector experienced a decline of 3.2%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 1.55% [14] - The total market capitalization of public funds in the home appliance sector was approximately 120.37 billion yuan at the end of Q1 2025, remaining stable compared to Q4 2024, but showing a slight decrease in allocation ratio [15] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the home appliance index is at 13.58, indicating a historically low valuation level, suggesting a high cost-performance ratio for investors [19] Domestic Sales - The demand for new appliance configurations is expected to weaken due to a decline in housing completions, while upgrade demand is anticipated to drive domestic sales growth [26][29] - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with policies aimed at supporting the sector expected to positively impact downstream demand for home appliances [29] - The penetration rate of major appliances is high, with many units entering their replacement cycle, further supporting sales [39] Export Market - In 2024, the export volume and value of home appliances increased by 20.8% and 14.1% year-on-year, respectively, with a continued upward trend in early 2025 due to the "export rush" effect [9] - The export growth is expected to remain resilient despite tariff uncertainties, as China's home appliance exports have a low dependency on the U.S. market and are supported by rising demand in emerging markets [9][42] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading white goods companies with stable operations and global layouts, as well as opportunities for valuation recovery in companies related to the real estate sector as risks ease [1][2]

Group 1 - The 13th Chongqing Appliance Festival has commenced, marking an annual celebration of home appliance consumption and signaling Chongqing Department Store's efforts to boost consumption and improve livelihoods [1][3] - The festival features a collaboration between Chongqing Department Store, local government, and major appliance brands, showcasing new products and offering various promotional activities [3][4] - The event includes significant subsidies, with government and enterprise collaboration providing up to 20% discounts on appliances, enhancing the appeal of the festival [3][4] Group 2 - Chongqing Department Store is expected to maintain stable and positive operating performance in 2024, with key indicators ranking among the top in A-share retail [4] - The festival theme "Really Save" emphasizes green and smart appliance upgrades, with over 400 million yuan allocated for consumer benefits, including substantial discounts based on purchase amounts [4][5] - The event coincides with the 2025 Chongqing Appliance Festival and the China (Chongqing) Appliance Channel Merchant TOP Summit, focusing on industry transformation and value creation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for the home appliance industry, highlighting a significant acceleration in retail sales during the 2025 618 shopping festival, driven by low-priced small appliances and sustained growth in major appliance categories, with leading companies benefiting from policy incentives and ongoing product upgrades [1] Group 1: Retail Performance - The home appliance industry experienced a notable uplift in overall sales during the 618 shopping festival, with a weighted average year-on-year growth rate of +15% for 20 representative categories in online retail sales from May 12 to June 15, 2025 [1] - The online retail volume and price growth rates for these 20 core categories were +13% and +1% respectively, indicating a strong performance in both volume and pricing [1] - Major appliances like air conditioners, washing machines, and black goods saw retail growth rates exceeding 20%, while low-priced small appliances also experienced significant growth, with online prices for rice cookers, pressure cookers, and air fryers rising over 10% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Brand Performance - Leading brands performed exceptionally well during the 618 shopping festival, with Midea's retail sales increasing over 20% and Gree's air conditioner sales leading the market, particularly the "Wind Does Not Blow" series, which saw a 240% year-on-year increase [2] - Other notable performers included Little Swan, COLMO, Haier, and Casarte in the white goods sector, while Hisense led the black goods market with a 24% share, particularly excelling in the high-end segment [2] - In the cleaning appliance category, Ecovacs maintained the top position in total sales, with Stone Technology achieving rapid growth, ranking first and second in sales for sweeping and washing machines respectively during the festival [2] Group 3: Subsidy and Demand Outlook - Concerns arose regarding the continuity of subsidy programs after notifications of pauses in certain regions, but data indicates that the usage of subsidy funds has accelerated since May, with approximately 50 billion yuan utilized by the end of May 2025 [3] - The central government is expected to allocate an additional 138 billion yuan in subsidies in July and October, ensuring a steady and orderly implementation of the policy through the end of the year [3] - The home appliance replacement program is anticipated to maintain a steady demand release in the second half of 2025, supported by a more stable pace of subsidy fund usage [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities indicates that the home appliance industry is experiencing a positive shift in domestic demand, with a focus on the white goods sector, which is expected to benefit from improved pricing strategies and a favorable cost environment [1][2]. Group 1: Home Appliance Industry Overview - The home appliance sector has shown a slight increase of 0.1% from the beginning of the year to June 5, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.6 percentage points, ranking 17th among primary industries [1]. - The overall performance of the home appliance sector has historically shown a high success rate, with 16 out of the past 20 years outperforming the CSI 300 index during the same period [1]. Group 2: White Goods Sector - The white goods sector is expected to see improved domestic demand, with a lower base for shipments and a potential upward trend [2]. - The usage of funds for the old-for-new policy has accelerated in May, although the impact of elastic marginal reduction and funding constraints may be concentrated in Q4 2025 [2]. - Major players in the white goods sector have adopted aggressive online pricing strategies, leading to significant market share elasticity, while the cost environment has improved, suggesting minimal impact on profitability [2]. Group 3: Black Goods Sector - The overall demand for TVs has shown a weak recovery since 2025, with MiniLED backlight TVs becoming a key driver for domestic product upgrades [3]. - Domestic brands like TCL and Hisense have performed strongly, with Hisense rapidly increasing its market share in MiniLED backlight TVs [3]. - The profitability of leading brands is expected to improve due to product structure upgrades and stable panel prices, with an anticipated increase in industry concentration and ongoing technological advancements [3]. Group 4: Emerging Small Appliances - The demand for emerging small appliances, particularly robotic vacuum cleaners, has seen significant growth since 2025, driven by subsidies and product innovation [4]. - Competition in the domestic and international markets is expected to diverge, with companies like Roborock performing well domestically while facing challenges abroad [4]. Group 5: Kitchen Appliances - The kitchen small appliance sector is showing signs of stabilization after a prolonged adjustment, with domestic sales rebounding due to low bases, reduced competition, and new product launches [5]. - The demand for large kitchen appliances is gradually improving, but recovery is still dependent on the real estate market, transitioning from new home-driven demand to replacement-driven demand [5]. Group 6: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the home appliance industry, with a focus on high-quality, high-dividend leading companies such as Gree Electric Appliances, Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances [6][7]. - It also highlights the potential of leading TV brands like Hisense Vision and TCL Electronics, as well as emerging consumer brands benefiting from promotional events [7].

Group 1 - The home appliance market is experiencing a surge in activity due to the implementation of trade-in policies, particularly during the 618 shopping festival, which has led to increased sales of energy-efficient products like gas water heaters [1][2] - The national trade-in policy offers subsidies of 20% for first-level energy efficiency products and 15% for second-level, resulting in over 90% of home appliance sales being attributed to first-level energy efficiency products by 2024 [2][4] - Local governments, including Beijing and Shanghai, are expanding subsidy programs to further stimulate consumer behavior towards high-efficiency products [2][4] Group 2 - Consumers are increasingly opting for first-level energy efficiency gas water heaters due to significant cost savings, with one family estimating a savings of 5,350 yuan over eight years by switching from a second-level to a first-level product [2][4] - The gas water heater industry has faced technical challenges, particularly in improving heat efficiency from 88% to over 98%, which requires advanced heat recovery methods [4][6] - Haier has emerged as a leader in addressing these technical challenges, achieving a heat efficiency of 107.2% through innovative designs and successfully mitigating issues related to condensate water [5][6] Group 3 - Haier's gas water heaters have maintained the top global sales position for four consecutive years, with its high-end series ranking first in sales on major e-commerce platforms [6] - The combination of government policies and Haier's technological advancements is expected to unlock significant consumer potential in the energy-efficient appliance market [6]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 22 日 [Table_Title] 周专题：5 月家电社零同比加速，第三、四批国补资金分别 7、10 月发放 [Table_Title2] 家电行业周报 [Table_Summary] ► 周专题： 5 月限额以上家电零售额同比高增，增速领先。根据 wind， 2025 年 1-5 月限额以上单位的家用电器和音像器材类累计商 品零售额同比+30.2%，累计零售额为 4641 亿元，其中单 5月 实现同比+53%（4 月为+39%），单 5 月零售额为 1166 亿元。 根据国家统计局，5 月家电和音响器材类零售额同比增速大 幅领先文化办公用品类（+31%）、家居类（+25.6%）、通讯 器材类（+33%）。 关税政策波动、下游需求不及预期、行业竞争加剧、上游原材 料成本波动等风险等。 评级及分析师信息 [Table_IndustryRank] 行业评级：推荐 [Table_Pic] 行业走势图 -11% -5% 2% 8% 15% 21% 2024/06 2024/09 2024/12 2025/03 2025/06 家用电器 沪 ...

家电行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 国补无虞且韧性可期，抢滩蓝海有望焕发 新生机 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 家电内销有望受益政策拉动，叠加今年空调旺季有望受益较高气温和较低库存，二季度 家电需求值得期待，后续国补补贴方式变化但扰动有限；出口方面新兴市场潜力可期， 对美出口扰动因为全球产能布局也无需过忧，供应链优势带来的全球格局重塑机会则需 重视。建议关注享受国内政策延续、积极出海，自身效率提升的优质白电龙头，建议关 注美的集团(000333，未评级)、海尔智家(600690，买入)、海信家电(000921，未评 级)；建议关注海外成熟市场份额重塑，且短期全球供应链优势有望放大弹性的出海/出口 优质企业，建议关注海信视像(600060，增持)、欧圣电气(301187，买入)；建议关注短 期受益国补品类外溢，中长期有望享受新兴家电品类需求红利的优质小家电企业，建议 关注石头科技(688169，买入)、小熊电器(002959，增持)；建议关注地产负面扰动缓 和，策略灵活调整并有望布局海外的厨电企业，建议关注老板电器(002508，买入)、华 帝股份(002035，未评级)。 风险提示 国家/地区 中国 行业 家电 ...