尿素出口政策

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尿素:区间震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 01:50
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry is "Range-bound" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea is expected to remain range - bound in the short term, with fundamental pressure in the medium term. The upside is limited due to the gentle release of domestic top - dressing demand, high inventory of mid - stream traders, and the export policy that curbs speculation. The downside is supported by the opening of the export channel. In the long - run, with an assumed export volume of around 2 million tons, the pressure on urea remains high, and the price center may gradually decline, but there may be multi - stage price rebounds due to export releases [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Data 3.1.1 Futures Market - Urea主力: Closing price was 1,761 yuan/ton (down 12 from the previous day), settlement price was 1,774 yuan/ton (down 4), trading volume was 178,534 lots, open interest was 231,078 lots (up 5,951), and the number of warehouse receipts was 6,619 tons (down 235). The turnover was 633.582 million yuan (down 56.772 million) [2] - Basis: Shandong region basis was 109 (up 12), Fengxi - disk was - 31 (up 12), and Dongguang - disk was 69 (up 12) [2] - Month spread: UR09 - UR01 was 65 (down 5) [2] 3.1.2 Spot Market - Urea factory prices of Henan Xinlianxin, Yankuang Xinjiang, Shandong Ruixing, Shanxi Fengxi, Hebei Dongguang, and Jiangsu Linggu remained unchanged at 1,860 yuan/ton, 1,660 yuan/ton, 1,840 yuan/ton, 1,730 yuan/ton, 1,830 yuan/ton, and 1,880 yuan/ton respectively. Trader prices in Shandong and Shanxi regions also remained unchanged at 1,870 yuan/ton and 1,730 yuan/ton respectively [2] - Supply - side indicators: The operating rate was 90.16% (up 0.57 percentage points), and the daily output was 207,310 tons (up 1,300) [2] 3.2 Industry News - As of May 28, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 980,600 tons, an increase of 63,200 tons (6.89% YoY) from the previous week. The inventory is expected to continue rising this week due to weakened speculative trading by traders [2]
大越期货尿素早报-20250603
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 02:16
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of urea are bearish, with high supply and weak demand in the short term. The export policy has been implemented, and although the export profit is high, it has little impact on domestic prices. It is expected that the trend of UR today will be oscillating weakly [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has declined recently. Supply-side factors include high operating rates and daily production, with new plants coming into operation and short-term inventory fluctuations. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has declined, while that of melamine is relatively high, and agricultural demand is weak in the short term. The international urea price is strong, and the export policy has been implemented, resulting in high export profits but little impact on domestic prices. The spot price of the deliverable product is 1860 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 76, with a premium/discount ratio of 4.1%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.114 million tons (+0), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a neutral position [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract has reversed to a long position, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures price of the urea main contract has declined, with high daily production, short-term inventory fluctuations, weak agricultural demand in the short term, and price decline after the implementation of the export policy. It is expected that the trend of UR today will be oscillating weakly [4]. Factors Affecting Urea Price - **Bullish Factors**: The theoretical export profit is high [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: High daily production and operation rates, new plant commissioning, and overall weak demand [5]. - **Main Logic**: High daily production on the supply side and marginal changes in demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market Quotes - **Spot Market**: The price of the deliverable product is 1860 (+0), the price of Shandong spot is 1880 (+0), the price of Henan spot is 1860 (+0), and the FOB China price is 2592 [6]. - **Futures Market**: The prices of UR01, UR05, and UR09 contracts have all declined, with decreases of 8, 8, and 6 respectively [6]. Urea Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - **2018 - 2024**: From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity, output, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend. The import dependence has fluctuated, and the consumption growth rate has also varied. The ending inventory has remained relatively stable [10]. - **2025E**: The production capacity is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [10].
尿素:出口政策较为温和,中期进入震荡格局
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 05:23
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The export policy for urea is relatively mild, and the market will enter a volatile pattern in the medium term [1]. - The urea futures market is expected to show a pattern of long - short game and oscillation, with support at the bottom and limited upside space due to policy control [3]. - Next week, the inventory of urea production enterprises is expected to continue to decline [2]. Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract (09 contract) remained unchanged at 1,897 yuan/ton, the settlement price increased by 12 yuan/ton to 1,903 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 33,071 hands to 299,239 hands, the open interest increased by 8,127 hands to 275,098 hands, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 2,149 tons to 7,049 tons, and the trading volume increased by 131,731 ten - thousand yuan to 1,138,628 ten - thousand yuan. The Shandong regional basis increased by 10 to 83, and the UR09 - UR01 spread increased by 3 to 99 [1]. - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of major urea manufacturers remained unchanged. The trading price in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,980 yuan/ton, and the price in Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,890 yuan/ton. The supply - side operating rate decreased by 1.04 percentage points to 85.50%, and the daily output decreased by 2,400 tons to 197,170 tons [1]. Industry News - As of May 7, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0656 million tons, a decrease of 0.1261 million tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 10.58%. The inventory of some provinces increased, while that of most provinces decreased. Due to strong short - term speculative behavior of traders, the inventory of urea production enterprises is expected to continue to decline next week [2]. - The export policy has been temporarily implemented. The self - regulated export volume of urea by relevant associations this year (until April 2026) is about 2 million tons, and the export rhythm and time are adjusted to ensure domestic market stability and prevent excessive concentration of exports [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].
尿素周报:尿素出口基本得以确认保供稳价依旧是国内市场重点-20250512
Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 08:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report indicates that urea exports are basically confirmed, and ensuring supply and stabilizing prices remain the focus of the domestic market. The urea futures market is mainly driven by export expectations. The domestic policy aims to maintain supply and price stability, and if there are price fluctuations, the government will intervene. This is unfavorable for urea futures bulls, and it is expected that urea futures will reflect the policy intention [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea and Related Product Prices - **Domestic Urea Spot Prices**: The report presents historical price trends of urea in different regions of China, including Henan, Shanxi (small and large particles), and Sichuan from 2021 to 2025 [8][9]. - **International Urea Prices and Spreads**: It shows historical price trends of small - particle urea FOB prices in China and the Middle East, as well as the profit of Shandong factories for port collection and the spread between the Middle East and Shandong factory port collection costs from 2021 to 2025 [11][12]. - **Unit Nitrogen Element Prices and Spreads**: The report provides historical price trends of synthetic ammonia in Hubei, ammonium chloride in Henan, and the spreads between liquid ammonia - urea and urea - ammonium chloride from 2021 to 2025 [14][15]. - **Phosphate and Potassium Fertilizer Prices**: It shows historical price trends of monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate, 60% potassium fertilizer, and 62% port potassium fertilizer in Hubei from 2021 to 2025 [17][18]. - **Urea Futures Basis and Inter - month Spreads**: The report presents historical price trends of the urea futures 09 contract, its basis, and the 9 - 1 spread from 2021 to 2025 [20][21]. 3.2 Urea Supply - **Domestic Urea Production**: The weekly average daily production of urea has been increasing, reaching 20.43 tons in the week of May 22 - 28, 2025. There were changes in the number of parking and resuming enterprises, and 5 enterprises were planned to be under maintenance and 1 was expected to resume production in the current week. The report also shows historical data on the weekly average daily production, cumulative production, and production by raw material (natural gas and coal) from 2021 to 2025 [5][25][26]. - **Coal Prices and Urea Profits**: The price of anthracite is stable, and the fixed - bed process production cost in Shanxi is 1480 yuan/ton. The profit of the fixed - bed process in Shanxi is 410 yuan/ton, and it is expected that prices will remain stable [5][28][29]. - **Urea Factory Inventory and Apparent Consumption**: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 106.56 tons, a decrease of 12.61 tons (- 10.58%) compared to the previous period. The report also shows historical data on enterprise inventory, apparent consumption, order volume, and domestic apparent consumption from 2021 to 2025 [5][31][32]. 3.3 Urea Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 37.90%, a decrease of 2.7% compared to the previous period, and it is expected to increase steadily. The report also shows historical data on the compound fertilizer enterprise's start - up rate, inventory, import, export, and net export from 2021 to 2025 [5][36][37]. - **Compound Fertilizer Upstream**: For phosphate fertilizers, it shows historical data on the weekly production, domestic supply volume, and cumulative domestic supply volume of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate from 2021 to 2025. For potassium fertilizers, it shows historical data on the domestic start - up rate, port inventory, domestic supply volume, and cumulative domestic supply volume from 2021 to 2025 [38][39][42]. - **Melamine**: The report shows historical data on the weekly production, price, ratio to urea, and domestic net retention volume of melamine from 2021 to 2025 [44][45]. - **Urea Export**: The report shows historical data on the monthly and cumulative export volume of urea from 2021 to 2025 [47][48]. 3.4 Urea Inventory The report shows historical data on urea enterprise inventory, port inventory, the sum of enterprise and port inventory, and urea warehouse receipts from 2021 to 2025 [49][50].
尿素早评:出口传言冲击市场-20250506
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-05-06 06:54
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core View of the Report - On April 30, market rumors of possible urea export liberalization led to a significant gap - up in the futures market, with intraday gains exceeding 7%. During the May Day holiday, urea spot prices showed a slight increase. Considering the uncertainty of export policy in the short - term, two scenarios are considered. If export is confirmed to be liberalized, domestic urea prices may rise above 2000 yuan/ton due to large domestic - foreign price differentials and considerable export profits. If export remains restricted, after previous rounds of false export speculations, the price increase will likely be reversed in the short - term, but with domestic peak - season expectations, the price drop will stimulate demand, and there is support at the 1700 yuan/ton level. The strategy is to let long - position holders realize some profits and keep an eye on export policy trends [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On April 30, UR01 closed at 1778 yuan/ton (up 3.86% from April 29), UR05 at 1850 yuan/ton (up 5.24%), UR09 at 1857 yuan/ton (up 7.03%), and the previous trading day, the main contract 2509 opened at 1770 yuan/ton, with a high of 1771 yuan/ton, a low of 1725 yuan/ton, and closed at 1735 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot Prices**: Domestic spot prices in different regions had varying degrees of increase on April 30 compared to April 29. For example, in Shanxi, it was 1770 yuan/ton (up 4.12%), in Henan 1860 yuan/ton (up 2.20%), and in Shandong 1869 yuan/ton (up 5.24%) [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 19 yuan/ton on April 30, down 43 yuan/ton from April 29. The 01 - 05 spread was - 91 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - **Upstream**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan, Shanxi, and other regions remained unchanged on April 30 compared to April 29 [1] - **Downstream**: The prices of compound fertilizers (45%S) and melamine in Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, and other regions remained unchanged on April 30 compared to April 29 [1] Trading Strategy - Long - position holders are advised to realize some profits and continue to monitor the direction of export policies [1]
供需面趋好 尿素二季度中后期将迎新机
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-05-06 01:58
Group 1: Market Overview - The global market is experiencing heightened risk aversion due to the US "reciprocal tariff" policy, leading to a significant decline in prices of commodities like crude oil and urea futures [1] - Urea spot market activity has improved as macroeconomic negative factors are gradually digested, with some companies starting to control order volumes and tentatively raise prices [1][5] - The urea market is currently in a state of fluctuation, influenced by the contradiction between demand recovery expectations and weak actual demand [1] Group 2: Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand for urea remains strong, with direct agricultural use and compound fertilizer demand accounting for 49% and 17% of total demand, respectively [2][3] - The peak demand season for urea aligns with the critical growth period for most crops, particularly in southern regions where rice planting occurs [2] - As drought conditions ease, agricultural demand is expected to gradually recover, with increased fertilizer preparation in regions like Sichuan and Yunnan [2][3] Group 3: Industrial Demand - Industrial demand for urea, particularly for melamine and urea-formaldehyde resin, is closely tied to the real estate sector [3] - The recovery in real estate construction in 2025 is anticipated to stabilize the demand for urea-formaldehyde resin, thereby supporting urea demand [3] Group 4: Production and Capacity - Urea production in April reached 5.8375 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.91%, despite a month-on-month decline of 4.05% [4] - The national urea capacity utilization rate was 86.23% as of April 24, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.84% [4] - Urea inventory levels increased to 1.065 million tons by the end of April, marking a 22.72% month-on-month rise due to weakened downstream demand [4] Group 5: Price and Cost Dynamics - Urea prices have softened due to weak coal prices and limited downstream demand, significantly compressing profit margins for producers [6] - The average profit margin for urea produced via certain methods has turned negative, indicating severe challenges for production companies [6] Group 6: Export Outlook - Urea exports remain tightly controlled, with March exports at 0.23 million tons, a 63.62% month-on-month increase, but a 75.25% year-on-year decline [7] - The export situation is expected to remain stable in May, with potential changes in June depending on domestic demand and production capacity [7] Group 7: Future Market Trends - The second half of the year presents both challenges and opportunities, with potential price recovery expected as agricultural demand improves [9] - The market may face increased competition due to excess production capacity, particularly after the peak demand period [9] - Monitoring of export policy changes in June and July will be crucial for market dynamics and profitability [9]