Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - The market risk sentiment has rebounded due to the Sino-US trade agreement, causing the prices of precious metals to come under pressure. The Fed is temporarily on hold, while other central banks may cut interest rates. Gold may show a temporary oscillatory pattern, but a long - term optimistic outlook is maintained. Silver's rhythm is generally similar to that of gold, and it may perform stronger than gold in the short - term when market risk sentiment rebounds [1][8][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks joint statement announced that each side would cancel 91% of tariffs and suspend the implementation of 24% of tariffs. The US Treasury Secretary will study how to solve non - tariff barrier issues. Fed Governor Kugler supports keeping interest rates unchanged and believes tariffs will have a significant impact [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On May 12, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 790.16 yuan/gram and closed at 772.28 yuan/gram, down 2.05% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 608,130 lots, and the open interest was 210,772 lots. The night - session closed at 760.70 yuan/gram, down 2.52% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 8,180 yuan/kg and closed at 8,232 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 482,373 lots, and the open interest was 204,592 lots. The night - session closed at 8,145 yuan/kg, down 0.74% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On May 12, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury rate closed at 4.37%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.47%, down 2 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2502 contract, long positions changed by 1,747 lots, and short positions changed by 113 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 830,740 lots, down 11.57% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2502 contract, long positions were 883 lots, and short positions increased by 597 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,137,536 lots, down 17.77% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 939.05 tons, up 1.15 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 14,025.45 tons, up 8.49 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On May 12, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 12.41 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 436.01 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 93.81, down 2.81% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 101.25, down 0.28% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On May 12, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 81,162 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 477,976 kg, up 2.87% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 9,838 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 25,710 kg [7] Strategy - Gold may show a temporary oscillatory pattern, and a long - term optimistic outlook is maintained. Silver's rhythm is generally similar to that of gold, and it may perform stronger than gold in the short - term when market risk sentiment rebounds. Attention should be paid to position and stop - loss control when trading silver [8][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 74,000 yuan/ton [7] Core Viewpoints - After the UK and the US reached a trade agreement, market risk sentiment has emerged. The persistently low TC price also indicates that copper prices are likely to rise rather than fall. Therefore, it is recommended to mainly use dip-buying hedging for operations [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On May 12, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 77,950 yuan/ton and closed at 78,260 yuan/ton, up 1.05% from the previous trading day's close. During the night session, it opened at 78,080 yuan/ton and closed at 77,820 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the afternoon close [1] - **Spot Situation**: On the previous day, the sentiment of cargo holders to sell was divided. Some enterprises started trading at par at the beginning of the session, dragging down the transaction price. During the mainstream trading period, the price of mainstream flat copper gradually dropped from a discount of 10 yuan/ton to a discount of 50 yuan/ton. Non-registered goods were at a discount of around 100 yuan/ton. As the copper price rose during the day, downstream buyers pressured prices significantly, with transactions at discounts ranging from 140 to 100 yuan/ton [2] - **Important Information Summary**: - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The joint statement of the China-US Geneva economic and trade talks was released, stating that China and the US each cancelled 91% of tariffs and suspended the implementation of 24% of tariffs, leading to a rebound in market risk sentiment and a strengthening of copper prices [3] - **Domestic**: In the first four months of this year, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 10 million for the first time in history [3] - **Mineral End**: Barrick Mining began trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the single-letter stock code "B". First Quantum Minerals remains cautiously optimistic about the future of its Cobre Panamá copper mine, and the Panamanian government is evaluating how to restart the mine while safeguarding national interests [4] - **Smelting and Import**: In 2025, 24 cathode copper production enterprises with a total effective cathode copper production capacity of 12.065 million tons were tracked, a 7.25% increase from the previous year, accounting for 83.84% of the country's total effective production capacity. In April, the output of copper smelting sample enterprises increased significantly, exceeding 1.05 million tons. It is estimated that the cathode copper output in May will increase slightly to 1.07 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.86% and a month-on-month increase of 0.61% [5] - **Consumption**: Currently, the copper price is at a high level and shows a volatile trend. Downstream enterprises are becoming more cautious and wait-and-see. The consumption situation in the market has weakened. Last week, the overall market procurement was mainly for rigid demand at low prices [5] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,500 tons to 190,750 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 919 tons to 20,084 tons. On May 12, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 123,100 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week [6] Strategy - **Copper**: Cautiously bullish. It is recommended to mainly use dip-buying hedging for operations [7] - **Arbitrage**: On hold [7] - **Options**: short put @ 74,000 yuan/ton [7]

市场风险情绪改善加速黄金的获利了结，4月23日，国际金价大幅回撤，白银则强势补涨。 截至当天收盘时，纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年6月黄金期价当日下跌90.5美元， 收于每盎司3301.5美元，跌幅2.67%。 与之形成对比的是，美元企稳出现反弹，23日盘中美元指数日内高点一度逼近100关口。衡量美元对六 种主要货币的美元指数23日上涨0.94%，在汇市尾市收于99.844。 值得关注的是，在前几日金价大幅飙升之际，市场有分析人士已经开始警示金价短期超买的风险。随着 金价冲高回落，在风险情绪未出现再度恶化之前，金价阶段性调整风险也在增加。 盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管在最新分析报告中写道，"从技术角度来看，金价在3500美元这个水平附近 猛涨之后，走势急剧逆转，这在短期内增加金价进一步回调的风险。" 此外，近期受避险驱动黄金大幅飙升的同时，商品属性偏强的白银则表现疲软。随着市场风险情绪的改 善，银价迎来补涨。23日，纽约市场7月交割的白银期货价格收盘上涨107.5美分，报收于每盎司33.880 美元，涨幅为3.28%。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-260 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that international gold prices experienced a significant drop due to profit-taking and a recovery in market risk sentiment, with the June 2025 gold futures price falling by $33.3 to $3392 per ounce, a decrease of 0.97% [1] - Gold prices reached a high of $3509.9 per ounce during the day but fell to a low of $3379.10, reflecting increased volatility and profit-taking risks after a cumulative increase of over 12% in the month [1] - The rebound in U.S. stock indices and the rise of the U.S. dollar index, which increased by 0.56% to close at 98.918, contributed to the downward pressure on gold prices [1] Group 2 - Silver prices also declined, following the drop in gold prices, with the July silver futures price falling by 2.7 cents to $32.805 per ounce, a decrease of 0.08% [2] - However, the improvement in market risk sentiment is expected to enhance industrial demand for silver, which may limit the extent of its price decline [2]