Core Viewpoint - Gold prices showed a mild rebound in the Asian market on Friday, recovering some of the previous day's losses, although bullish momentum appears weak [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Strong U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) previously boosted the dollar, but this upward trend did not sustain [1] - The market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will restart the interest rate cut cycle in September, which is a key factor supporting gold prices [1] Group 2: Price Analysis - In the absence of sustained buying in the dollar and with stable expectations for Fed rate cuts, gold prices are likely to maintain a range-bound pattern in the short term [3] - There is a need to be cautious of rising market risk sentiment that could weaken gold's safe-haven appeal [3] - If the support level of $3330 is breached, there could be significant downward space for gold prices [3] Group 3: Technical Levels - Current resistance levels are between $3356 and $3360, while support levels are between $3325 and $3320 [3] - The analysis suggests that the recent rebound is primarily a short-term fluctuation influenced by CPI data, without forming a trend reversal [3] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Strategy 1: Suggests shorting at $3355 with a stop loss at $3365 and a target of $3325-$3315 [4] - Strategy 2: Suggests going long at $3322 with a stop loss at $3311 and a target of $3340-$3355 [5]

Group 1 - The market sentiment has improved significantly due to a phase ceasefire agreement reached between conflicting parties, which is expected to be implemented in stages [1] - The USD/JPY exchange rate rebounded, the Israeli stock market reached a new high, and US stocks continued to perform strongly, indicating a recovery in overall risk appetite [1] - US inflation data for May showed both CPI and PPI below expectations, with core PPI growth at a one-year low, easing inflationary pressures and increasing market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - Gold prices experienced a significant decline, breaking below the key level of 3350, and further dropping to 3295, indicating a bearish trend [4] - The current price of gold is around 3332, with a focus on the support zone between 3318-3313; if this support holds, there may be a potential rally towards the 3400 mark [4] - The suggested trading strategy for gold includes buying on dips between 3317-3311, with a stop loss at 3304 and a target range of 3340-3360 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, maintains its holdings at 935.65 tons as of June 5, 2025, amidst fluctuating gold prices influenced by market sentiment and economic data [2][7]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of June 5, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's total holdings remain unchanged at 935.65 tons of gold [2][7]. - The gold price experienced volatility, peaking above $3400 per ounce before closing at $3352.65, down $19.39 or 0.58% [7]. Group 2: Market Influences - Poor economic data from the U.S., including higher-than-expected initial jobless claims, has increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, contributing to gold price fluctuations [7]. - Metals Focus predicts that global central banks will purchase 1000 tons of gold in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of significant gold buying [7]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest a bullish trend for gold, with resistance levels at $3400, $3438, and $3450, while short-term support is at $3300 [9]. - The gold market shows a strong momentum, with the relative strength index (RSI) around 57, indicating a prevailing bullish sentiment [8]. Group 4: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver has shown stronger recent performance, reaching its highest level since February 2012, with a current gold-silver ratio of 94, down from 105 in April [8]. - Analysts warn of potential volatility in the silver market, predicting possible sharp movements in either direction [8].

Group 1: Market News and Important Data - Fed Chair Powell said the Fed is adjusting its policy - making framework, zero - interest rate is no longer a base case, and 4 - month PCE is expected to drop to 2.2%. Japan seeks a third round of US - Japan trade talks next week, the US considers modifying the US - Japan trade agreement, and the EU and the US will accelerate trade negotiations with the EU hoping for a larger tariff cut than the UK. Russia - Ukraine talks are postponed to the 16th [1] Group 2: Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On May 15, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 750.00 yuan/gram, closed at 739.82 yuan/gram, down 2.88% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 744,074 lots, and the open interest was 211,188 lots. The night - session closed at 754.32 yuan/gram, up 1.22% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 8,090 yuan/kg, closed at 8,008 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 936,043 lots, and the open interest was 342,882 lots. The night - session closed at 8,134 yuan/kg, up 1.02% from the afternoon close [2] Group 3: US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On May 15, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.53%, with a 0.04% change from the previous trading day. The 10 - 2 year spread was 0.49%, up 1 basis point from the previous trading day [3] Group 4: Position and Volume Changes on the SHFE - On May 15, 2025, in the Au2502 contract, long positions changed by 355 lots and short positions by 203 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 997,266 lots, up 59.43% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2502 contract, long positions were 2,151 lots and short positions increased by 2,830 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Silver contracts was 1,477,415 lots, down 43.78% from the previous trading day [4] Group 5: Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 927.62 tons, down 4.30 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 13,971.47 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Group 6: Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On May 15, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 23.97 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 260.54 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 92.39, down 0.61% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 98.20, with a - 0.16% change from the previous trading day [6] Group 7: Fundamental Analysis - On May 15, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 79,414 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 974,352 kg, up 144.37% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 13,224 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 49,560 kg [7] Group 8: Strategy - Gold: Neutral. The US is reaching trade agreements with multiple countries or regions, and Trump's previous tariff policy has changed, leading to a rise in risk - on sentiment and a decline in gold prices. Gold may seek support at the monthly - line level (around 710 yuan/gram). It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. Silver: Although silver has also declined, it may be slightly stronger than gold, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to correct. It is also recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [8][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [9] - Silver: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - Gold prices may temporarily maintain a volatile pattern due to the impact of Trump's tariff policies and inflation expectations [9] - Silver prices show a slightly stronger trend than gold under the current risk sentiment, and the gold-silver ratio may decline in the near future, but a neutral attitude is still recommended for the absolute price of silver [9] Market News and Important Data - On May 13, 2025, the US consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.3% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.4%. The core CPI rose 2.8% year-on-year, still well above the Fed's 2% long-term target [2] - Trump pressured Powell to cut interest rates after the CPI report, saying the stock market would soar [2] - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US will bring back pharmaceutical, semiconductor and other strategic industries, so the short-term agreement between China and the US in Geneva does not mean the end of future trade disputes [2] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On May 13, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 760.80 yuan/gram and closed at 767.68 yuan/gram, down 0.60% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 625,489 lots, and the open interest was 214,581 lots [3] - On May 13, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 8,130 yuan/kg and closed at 8,219 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 445,790 lots, and the open interest was 188,738 lots [3] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On May 13, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.45%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.47%, unchanged from the previous trading day [4] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2502 contract on May 13, 2025, the long positions increased by 883 lots compared with the previous day, while the short positions decreased by 37 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 833,063 lots, up 0.28% from the previous trading day [5] - On the Ag2502 contract on May 13, 2025, the long positions increased by 188 lots, and the short positions increased by 254 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,182,017 lots, down 3.91% from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - On May 13, 2025, the gold ETF position was 736.51 tons, down 2.58 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 13,999.75 tons, down 29.70 tons from the previous trading day [6] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On May 13, 2025, the price difference between the Shanghai Gold main contract and Au(T+d) was 0.81 yuan/gram, down 3.05 yuan/gram from the previous trading day. The price difference between the Shanghai Silver main contract and Ag(T+d) was 38 yuan/kg, down 10 yuan/kg from the previous trading day [7] - On May 13, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was 19.29 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -332.50 yuan/kg [7] - On May 13, 2025, the price ratio of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold and silver main contracts was about 93.40, down 0.44% from the previous trading day. The price ratio of the foreign market was 98.85, down 2.37% from the previous trading day [7] Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d Market Monitoring - On May 13, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 76,248 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 522,642 kg, up 9.34% from the previous trading day [8] - On May 13, 2025, the delivery volume of gold was 17,048 kg, and the delivery volume of silver was 24,300 kg [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - The market risk sentiment has rebounded due to the Sino-US trade agreement, causing the prices of precious metals to come under pressure. The Fed is temporarily on hold, while other central banks may cut interest rates. Gold may show a temporary oscillatory pattern, but a long - term optimistic outlook is maintained. Silver's rhythm is generally similar to that of gold, and it may perform stronger than gold in the short - term when market risk sentiment rebounds [1][8][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks joint statement announced that each side would cancel 91% of tariffs and suspend the implementation of 24% of tariffs. The US Treasury Secretary will study how to solve non - tariff barrier issues. Fed Governor Kugler supports keeping interest rates unchanged and believes tariffs will have a significant impact [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On May 12, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 790.16 yuan/gram and closed at 772.28 yuan/gram, down 2.05% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 608,130 lots, and the open interest was 210,772 lots. The night - session closed at 760.70 yuan/gram, down 2.52% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 8,180 yuan/kg and closed at 8,232 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 482,373 lots, and the open interest was 204,592 lots. The night - session closed at 8,145 yuan/kg, down 0.74% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On May 12, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury rate closed at 4.37%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.47%, down 2 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2502 contract, long positions changed by 1,747 lots, and short positions changed by 113 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 830,740 lots, down 11.57% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2502 contract, long positions were 883 lots, and short positions increased by 597 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,137,536 lots, down 17.77% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 939.05 tons, up 1.15 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 14,025.45 tons, up 8.49 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On May 12, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 12.41 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 436.01 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 93.81, down 2.81% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 101.25, down 0.28% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On May 12, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 81,162 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 477,976 kg, up 2.87% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 9,838 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 25,710 kg [7] Strategy - Gold may show a temporary oscillatory pattern, and a long - term optimistic outlook is maintained. Silver's rhythm is generally similar to that of gold, and it may perform stronger than gold in the short - term when market risk sentiment rebounds. Attention should be paid to position and stop - loss control when trading silver [8][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 74,000 yuan/ton [7] Core Viewpoints - After the UK and the US reached a trade agreement, market risk sentiment has emerged. The persistently low TC price also indicates that copper prices are likely to rise rather than fall. Therefore, it is recommended to mainly use dip-buying hedging for operations [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On May 12, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 77,950 yuan/ton and closed at 78,260 yuan/ton, up 1.05% from the previous trading day's close. During the night session, it opened at 78,080 yuan/ton and closed at 77,820 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the afternoon close [1] - **Spot Situation**: On the previous day, the sentiment of cargo holders to sell was divided. Some enterprises started trading at par at the beginning of the session, dragging down the transaction price. During the mainstream trading period, the price of mainstream flat copper gradually dropped from a discount of 10 yuan/ton to a discount of 50 yuan/ton. Non-registered goods were at a discount of around 100 yuan/ton. As the copper price rose during the day, downstream buyers pressured prices significantly, with transactions at discounts ranging from 140 to 100 yuan/ton [2] - **Important Information Summary**: - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The joint statement of the China-US Geneva economic and trade talks was released, stating that China and the US each cancelled 91% of tariffs and suspended the implementation of 24% of tariffs, leading to a rebound in market risk sentiment and a strengthening of copper prices [3] - **Domestic**: In the first four months of this year, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 10 million for the first time in history [3] - **Mineral End**: Barrick Mining began trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the single-letter stock code "B". First Quantum Minerals remains cautiously optimistic about the future of its Cobre Panamá copper mine, and the Panamanian government is evaluating how to restart the mine while safeguarding national interests [4] - **Smelting and Import**: In 2025, 24 cathode copper production enterprises with a total effective cathode copper production capacity of 12.065 million tons were tracked, a 7.25% increase from the previous year, accounting for 83.84% of the country's total effective production capacity. In April, the output of copper smelting sample enterprises increased significantly, exceeding 1.05 million tons. It is estimated that the cathode copper output in May will increase slightly to 1.07 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.86% and a month-on-month increase of 0.61% [5] - **Consumption**: Currently, the copper price is at a high level and shows a volatile trend. Downstream enterprises are becoming more cautious and wait-and-see. The consumption situation in the market has weakened. Last week, the overall market procurement was mainly for rigid demand at low prices [5] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,500 tons to 190,750 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 919 tons to 20,084 tons. On May 12, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 123,100 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week [6] Strategy - **Copper**: Cautiously bullish. It is recommended to mainly use dip-buying hedging for operations [7] - **Arbitrage**: On hold [7] - **Options**: short put @ 74,000 yuan/ton [7]

市场风险情绪改善加速黄金的获利了结，4月23日，国际金价大幅回撤，白银则强势补涨。 截至当天收盘时，纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年6月黄金期价当日下跌90.5美元， 收于每盎司3301.5美元，跌幅2.67%。 与之形成对比的是，美元企稳出现反弹，23日盘中美元指数日内高点一度逼近100关口。衡量美元对六 种主要货币的美元指数23日上涨0.94%，在汇市尾市收于99.844。 值得关注的是，在前几日金价大幅飙升之际，市场有分析人士已经开始警示金价短期超买的风险。随着 金价冲高回落，在风险情绪未出现再度恶化之前，金价阶段性调整风险也在增加。 盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管在最新分析报告中写道，"从技术角度来看，金价在3500美元这个水平附近 猛涨之后，走势急剧逆转，这在短期内增加金价进一步回调的风险。" 此外，近期受避险驱动黄金大幅飙升的同时，商品属性偏强的白银则表现疲软。随着市场风险情绪的改 善，银价迎来补涨。23日，纽约市场7月交割的白银期货价格收盘上涨107.5美分，报收于每盎司33.880 美元，涨幅为3.28%。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-260 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that international gold prices experienced a significant drop due to profit-taking and a recovery in market risk sentiment, with the June 2025 gold futures price falling by $33.3 to $3392 per ounce, a decrease of 0.97% [1] - Gold prices reached a high of $3509.9 per ounce during the day but fell to a low of $3379.10, reflecting increased volatility and profit-taking risks after a cumulative increase of over 12% in the month [1] - The rebound in U.S. stock indices and the rise of the U.S. dollar index, which increased by 0.56% to close at 98.918, contributed to the downward pressure on gold prices [1] Group 2 - Silver prices also declined, following the drop in gold prices, with the July silver futures price falling by 2.7 cents to $32.805 per ounce, a decrease of 0.08% [2] - However, the improvement in market risk sentiment is expected to enhance industrial demand for silver, which may limit the extent of its price decline [2]