Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that coking coal futures are experiencing low volatility, with the main contract reported at 1085.5 yuan/ton, reflecting a decline of 1.05% [1] - As of November 25, coal inventory at northern ports (excluding Huanghua Port) reached 23.98 million tons, an increase of 8.56% compared to the same period last month [2] - The coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 5.68 million tons, up 2.71% year-on-year, while Caofeidian Port's coal outflow was 523,000 tons, marking an increase of 8.96% [2] Group 2 - As of November 21, the total coking coal inventory across 16 national ports was 4.569 million tons, a decrease of 313,000 tons; specifically, the inventory at North China ports was 2.43 million tons, down 40,000 tons [2] - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 71.10%, unchanged from the previous period; total coking coal inventory was 8.8922 million tons, down 335,600 tons, with available days of coking coal at 13.4 days, a decrease of 0.4 days [2] - One德期货 notes that macroeconomic disturbances are present, with terminal demand under pressure, yet downstream coal procurement demand remains consistent, leading to a notable rise in coal stock prices [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply-side production schedule has decreased and is near the historical average level. Demand recovery remains at a low level, and cost support has increased. The industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate between 8855 - 9065 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply-side production schedule will decrease in the short term and is expected to recover in the medium term. Demand from the silicon wafer, battery cell, and component sectors continues to decline, showing overall demand recession. Cost support has stabilized. The polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate between 53895 - 55565 [8]. - The main logic for the market is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand growth. The main bullish factors are rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production. The main bearish factors are the slow post-festival demand recovery and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon [11][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's industrial silicon supply was 91,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's industrial silicon demand was 80,000 tons, a 4.76% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains persistently weak. The inventory of crystalline silicon is 271,000 tons, at a low level. Silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss-making state, while components are profitable. The inventory of silicone is 56,300 tons, also at a low level. The production profit of silicone is 768 yuan/ton, and its comprehensive operating rate is 72.18%, unchanged from the previous week and lower than the historical average. The inventory of aluminum alloy ingots is 75,200 tons, at a high level. The import loss is 543 yuan/ton, and the freight and profit of A356 aluminum delivered to Wuxi are 672.91 yuan/ton. The operating rate of recycled aluminum is 60.6%, unchanged from the previous week and at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: The production loss of sample oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang is 2,874 yuan/ton. Cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On November 25th, the spot price of non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 390 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 548,000 tons, a 0.37% increase from the previous week. The inventory of sample enterprises is 177,800 tons, a 3.01% increase. The inventory of major ports is 129,000 tons, a 1.57% increase [6]. - **Market**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's polysilicon production was 27,100 tons, a 1.11% increase from the previous week. The production schedule for November is forecasted to be 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer production was 12.78GW, a 2.59% decrease from the previous week. Inventory was 187,200 tons, a 1.62% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss-making state. The production schedule for November is 57.66GW, a 4.92% decrease from the previous month. In October, battery cell production was 59.27GW, a 2.78% decrease. Last week, the inventory of battery cell external sales factories was 12.05GW, a 18.02% increase. Currently, production is in a loss-making state. The production schedule for November is 58.68GW, a 0.99% decrease. In October, component production was 48.1GW, a 3.60% decrease. The estimated component production for November is 46.92GW, a 2.45% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease. The European monthly inventory is 35.4GW, a 5.35% increase. Currently, component production is profitable [8]. - **Cost**: The average industry cost of N-type polysilicon materials is 38,920 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,080 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On November 25th, the price of N-type dense materials was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was -2,480 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory is 271,000 tons, a 1.49% increase from the previous week, and is at a historical low [8]. - **Market**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, with an increase in long positions [8]. 2. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Overview Industrial Silicon - The prices of most industrial silicon futures contracts increased slightly. The spot prices of various grades of silicon in East China remained unchanged [15]. - Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory all increased to varying degrees [15]. - The production of some sample enterprises decreased, and the operating rates of some regions remained unchanged [15]. Polysilicon - The prices of most polysilicon futures contracts increased. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly unchanged [17]. - The inventory of silicon wafers and battery cells increased, while the domestic inventory of components decreased, and the European inventory increased [17]. - The production of silicon wafers and battery cells decreased, and the production of components is expected to decrease [17]. 3. Price, Inventory, Production, and Cost Trends Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price and basis trends of industrial silicon show certain fluctuations over time [19]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of industrial silicon in warehouses and ports, as well as the weekly inventory of sample enterprises, shows different trends over time [25]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The production and capacity utilization of industrial silicon in different regions and specifications show different trends over time [28]. - **Cost**: The cost and profit trends of industrial silicon in sample regions show different trends over time [35]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The price and basis trends of polysilicon futures show certain fluctuations over time [22]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of polysilicon shows different trends over time [62]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The monthly production and operating rate of polysilicon show different trends over time [62]. - **Cost**: The cost trend of the polysilicon industry shows different trends over time [62]. 4. Supply and Demand Balance Industrial Silicon - The weekly and monthly supply and demand balance of industrial silicon shows different trends over time. There are differences in production, consumption, import, and export volumes [37][40]. Polysilicon - The monthly supply and demand balance of polysilicon shows different trends over time. There are differences in supply, consumption, import, and export volumes [64]. 5. Downstream Market Trends Organic Silicon - The price, production, and inventory trends of DMC, as well as the price trends of downstream products, show different trends over time [43][45]. - The import, export, and inventory trends of DMC show different trends over time [48]. Aluminum Alloy - The price, supply, inventory, and production trends of aluminum alloy show different trends over time. The demand from the automotive and wheel hub sectors also shows different trends [51][54][56]. Polysilicon Downstream - The price, production, inventory, and demand trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components show different trends over time [67][70][73]. - The price, production, inventory, and import/export trends of photovoltaic accessories show different trends over time [76]. - The cost, profit, and power generation trends of photovoltaic components show different trends over time [79][80].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The BR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,400 - 10,700 in the short - term. Next week, due to the slight delay of Maoming Petrochemical's maintenance until the end of the month and the gradual output after the restart of Qilu Petrochemical, Sichuan Petrochemical, and Yangzi Petrochemical's devices, the production enterprise inventory is expected to increase, while the trading enterprise inventory is expected to decline slightly. The capacity utilization rate of the tire industry is expected to decline further as the number of maintenance days of the maintenance enterprises increases next week [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,480 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 76,365, with a week - on - week decrease of 32. The 12 - 1 spread of synthetic rubber is 0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 2,980 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 tons [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,400 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,400 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; in Shanghai is 10,600 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton; and that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 10,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 30 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at $62.71 per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of $2.45; WTI crude oil is at $58.49 per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of $2.55. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is $584.25 per ton, with a week - on - week increase of $7.5. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is $740 per ton, with no change; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is $790 per ton, with no change. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 7,150 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 175 yuan/ton. The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 155,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 70.32%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.26 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 29,800 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,200 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 52.45%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 130,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5,300 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 65.85%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is 539 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 118 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 29,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,600 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 25,770 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,430 tons; the trader's inventory is 3,520 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 160 tons. The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.67%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.26 percentage points; the operating rate of full - steel tires is 65.46%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.12 percentage points. The monthly output of full - steel tires is 1.314 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 6.025 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 219,000 pieces. The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 39.2 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.05 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.23 days [2]. Industry News - As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.99%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 64.29%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.04 percentage points. In October 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber output was 137,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons or 5.52%, and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber in October was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. As of November 13, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 30,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 tons or 5.22% [2].

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report - Date: November 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of polyolefins are expected to remain under pressure. There are no new production plans in November, but some maintenance devices will restart, increasing the capacity expansion pressure and intensifying the imbalance between supply and demand. The downstream demand is weak, with the seasonal peak of agricultural film production passing, the demand for pipes increasing first and then decreasing, and the downstream's willingness to stock up being low due to fear of price drops [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market Performance**: The L2601 contract of linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) opened higher, fluctuated during the session, and closed down at 6,788 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton (-0.09%), with a trading volume of 186,000 lots and an increase in positions by 2,586 lots to 586,919 lots. The PP2601 contract of polypropylene closed at 6,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan (-0.11%), with a decrease in positions by 4,959 lots to 636,600 lots. The futures market opened low and fluctuated, the market trading atmosphere changed little, traders mostly offered discounts, and downstream buyers mainly made small - order purchases [5][6] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: There are no new production plans in November, but some maintenance devices will restart, increasing the device operating load and the pressure of new capacity expansion, which intensifies the imbalance between supply and demand. The downstream demand is weak. The agricultural film production has reached a seasonal peak and is declining, the demand for pipes increases first and then decreases, the plastic weaving of PP is boosted by packaging demand, and BOPP enterprises mainly digest inventory. The downstream's low willingness to stock up due to fear of price drops further drags down the transaction price [6] 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: On November 12, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 690,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (-2.82%) from the previous working day, compared with 680,000 tons in the same period last year [7] - **PE Market Price**: The prices of LLDPE in some areas decreased. The price range in North China was 6,760 - 7,000 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,900 - 7,400 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7,050 - 7,450 yuan/ton [7] - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong market was 5,750 - 5,780 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous working day. The market was in a supply - demand game, downstream factories mostly waited and watched for rigid demand, producers had a certain intention to stabilize the market, and individual offers had narrow discounts. The overall trading atmosphere was average [7] - **PP Market Price**: Most prices in the PP market fluctuated slightly, and some prices weakened. The mainstream price of North China wire drawing was 6,230 - 6,450 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,320 - 6,600 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6,400 - 6,550 yuan/ton [7] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP price difference, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, but specific data values are not described in detail in the text [9][13][17]

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Report date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - L2601 opened higher, oscillated downward during the session, and closed down at 6,968 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.29%), with a trading volume of 215,000 lots and an open interest decrease of 3,569 lots to 508,700 lots [5] - PP2601 closed at 6,651 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan (-0.21%), with an open interest increase of 677 lots to 613,335 lots [5] - On October 30, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 695,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons (-2.11%) from the previous working day; the inventory in the same period last year was 720,000 tons [7] - PE market prices were weakly sorted. The LLDPE prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6,910 - 7,150 yuan/ton, 7,030 - 7,500 yuan/ton, and 7,250 - 7,500 yuan/ton respectively [7] - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily 5,930 - 5,950 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton from the previous working day [7] - The PP market was mainly sorted, with individual prices slightly loosening. The mainstream prices of North China, East China, and South China were 6,450 - 6,540 yuan/ton, 6,530 - 6,620 yuan/ton, and 6,470 - 6,630 yuan/ton respectively [7] Group 3: Core Viewpoint - The futures opened higher and oscillated, but the market atmosphere was limitedly boosted. Traders quoted prices according to the market, and some quoted prices weakened. Downstream buyers mainly replenished stocks at low prices [5] - The expected output of the new Guangxi Petrochemical plant in November is expected to increase, and the impact of maintenance from November to December will decrease. Although the downstream operating rate remains high, the concentrated demand will decrease later, and the demand support will weaken [5] - Affected by the new round of US sanctions, the market sentiment is cautious, the oil price is under pressure, and the weak supply - demand fundamentals of polyolefin itself will cause the price to oscillate at a low level [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term production and capacity utilization of domestic butadiene rubber may decline due to increased maintenance of domestic butadiene rubber units, but considering the weak raw material side, it is expected that production enterprise inventories will decrease and trading enterprise inventories will increase [2] - The overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased slightly, with semi - steel tire enterprises maintaining stable production and full - steel tire enterprises keeping production stable. The BR2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,500 - 11,000 yuan/ton in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,795 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main contract is 52,216, an increase of 3,565; the 12 - 1 spread of synthetic rubber is 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber is 3,010 tons, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong and Shanghai is 10,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,150 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the basis of synthetic rubber is 195 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The current - week production capacity of butadiene is 155,300 tons/week, a decrease of 100 tons/week; the capacity utilization rate is 65.62%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points; the port inventory is 24,600 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons; the production capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 73.45%, a decrease of 1.37 percentage points [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The production of full - steel tires in the current month is 1.314 million pieces, an increase of 110,000 pieces; the production of semi - steel tires is 6.025 million pieces, an increase of 219,000 pieces; the inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong is 40.34 days, an increase of 0.39 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.26 days, an increase of 0.09 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.84 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.87%, a month - on - month increase of 1.91 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.95 percentage points [2] - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September, the cumulative sales exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [2] - As of October 22, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 33,200 tons, an increase of 400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.25% [2]

产能利用率小幅波动。br2512合约短线预计在10800-11000区间波动。 免责声明 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-10-27 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | -125 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 10995 | 49618 | -17076 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 合成橡胶12-1价差(日,元/吨) | 0 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) ...

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Futures continued to be weak, dampening market sentiment. Traders reduced prices to promote sales, leading to a decline in spot prices. Downstream buyers mainly purchased on - demand. The market was in a state of low - level weak oscillation due to limited demand drive and insufficient market confidence [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market**: L2601 opened lower, fluctuated during the session, and closed down at 7105 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton (-0.67%), with a trading volume of 180,000 lots and an increase in positions by 8837 lots to 589,676 lots. PP2601 closed at 6842 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan (-0.77%), with an increase in positions by 7134 lots to 654,200 lots [5][6]. - **Supply - side**: For polypropylene, the upstream maintenance level exceeded expectations, with more shutdown devices, resulting in a decline in capacity utilization and output. Due to the recent strengthening of propane prices, the profit of PDH plants continued to be compressed, and the operating load rate declined, alleviating supply - side pressure. Some maintenance plants will restart this week, and output may increase month - on - month. For PE, the maintenance volume declined from the high level, and the supply pressure increased month - on - month [6]. - **Demand - side**: Except for the increase in the operating rate of agricultural film, most other fields remained flat. The peak - season performance was lower than expected, and the downstream operating rate and orders were at a relatively low level year - on - year. Factories were cautious in raw material procurement, showing a situation of "peak season without prosperity", which had limited support for the raw material market. The destocking rhythm of social inventory in the middle stream was slow, and it was difficult to push up prices [6]. - **Macro - aspect**: The expectation of interest rate cuts was implemented, but the chemical sector showed a flat performance. There was still some support from the increasing demand for packaging products near the double festivals, but due to insufficient market confidence, there was no large - scale replenishment behavior, and the demand drive was limited [6]. 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: On September 23, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 680,000 tons, a cumulative increase of 50,000 tons from the previous working day, an increase of 7.94%. The inventory in the same period last year was 810,000 tons [7]. - **PE Market**: The PE market price weakened and declined. The LLDPE price in North China was 7060 - 7400 yuan/ton, in East China was 7150 - 7650 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton [7]. - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 6450 - 6520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The market supply trend increased, and producers still had the intention to sell at a discounted price. The propylene quotations mostly declined slightly, and downstream factories purchased at low prices. The low - end transactions in the market were acceptable [7]. - **PP Market**: The PP market continued to decline, with a decline range of 10 - 70 yuan/ton. The new orders of downstream factories were limited, and the pre - festival procurement enthusiasm was insufficient. The mainstream price of North China drawstring was 6690 - 6780 yuan/ton, in East China was 6700 - 6840 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6650 - 6830 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, two - oil inventory year - on - year increase or decrease rate, L basis, and PP basis, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [11][13][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of domestic cis - butadiene rubber is sufficient. Under the influence of downstream bargain - hunting purchases, the negotiation focus on the spot side is continuously under pressure. Some industry players expect a certain reduction in the mainstream supply price. This week, both enterprise inventories and sample trading enterprise inventories have decreased slightly. Before the holiday, downstream enterprises have pre - holiday stocking needs, and it is expected that buyers will gradually follow up, and the inventory level is expected to continue to decline. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased slightly this week. Most enterprises maintain their current production schedules to reserve inventory around the long holiday and make up for the previous order gap. The overall capacity utilization rate will mainly fluctuate slightly. The short - term price of the BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,250 - 11,700 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,415 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan; the position volume of the main contract is 74,503, an increase of 7,604; the 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,610 tons, a decrease of 360 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 11,700 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 11,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the basis of synthetic rubber is 235 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The current - week production capacity of butadiene is 151,200 tons/week, with no change; the current - week capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 68.33%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 25,600 tons, a decrease of 5,350 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.64%, an increase of 0.54 percentage points; the monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons; the current - week capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 73.48%, a decrease of 2.68 percentage points; the current - week production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 509 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 34,500 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons; the manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 26,300 tons, an increase of 1,650 tons; the trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 8,210 tons, an increase of 950 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.46%, an increase of 5.99 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.59%, an increase of 5.81 percentage points; the monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, an increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, an increase of 1.09 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 38.83 days, a decrease of 0.05 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.94 days, an increase of 0.09 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of September 18, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises is 33,700 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.29%; as of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises is 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points; in August 2025, the output of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber is 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73% [2] 3.6 Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The production of domestic cis - butadiene rubber has increased due to the restart of previously - shut - down devices, and the supply is expected to rise significantly. The inventory level of finished products is likely to increase. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tires fluctuated slightly last week. Some semi - steel tire enterprises' maintenance plans dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate, while the resumption of work of all - steel tire maintenance sample enterprises drove up the capacity utilization rate. Although there is still room for a slight increase in capacity utilization rate, the general order performance and enterprise production control will limit the increase. The br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,600 - 12,000 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,775 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/ton; the main contract position was 38,436, with a week - on - week increase of 2,745. The 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber was 2,490 tons, with no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong was 11,650 - 11,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong was 11,600 - 11,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 - 150 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was - 25 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of Brent crude oil was 65.79 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.81 US dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil was 62.35 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.07 US dollars/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price was 830 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 US dollars/ton; the price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was 574.5 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3.75 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene (CFR China) was 1,080 US dollars/ton, with no change. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,425 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 135 yuan/ton [2]. - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 15.11 million tons/week, with a week - on - week increase of 0.42 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.69%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 20,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5,700 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 47.52%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.65 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 129,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,700 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 64.52%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.65 percentage points. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 482 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 124 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 30,400 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons; the manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 23,450 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 700 tons; the trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 6,990 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 72.07%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.28 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 63.09%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.09 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.75 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 56.97 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.74 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.51 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.14 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.73 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.28 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of August 21, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 30,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 200 tons, or 0.56%. As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 69.11%, a week - on - week increase of 0.60 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.55 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 62.62%, a week - on - week increase of 2.56 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.69 percentage points [2]. - In July 2025, the output of cis - butadiene rubber in China was 129,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,700 tons, or 5.47%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.04% [2].