国海证券发布研报称，2025年7月，行业单票收入为7.36元，同比下降5.33%，环比下降1.76%。一方 面，快递小件化趋势下，对快递行业单票收入产生影响；另一方面，价格战7月仍延续，但8月反内卷背 景下，单票价格或有所修复。加盟快递在反内卷背景下，业绩有望修复。 智通财经APP获悉，2025年7月全国快递企业件量164.0亿件，同比+15.1%；2025年1-7月件量1120.5亿 件，同比+18.7%。 小件化趋势持续、电商促销且退换货便捷，共同驱动2025年前7个月件量增速超过邮管局对2025年全年 件量增速超8%的预测。 电商快递方面，圆通/韵达/申通2025年7月业务量分别同比+20.8%/+7.6%/+11.9%；1-7月业务量分别同比 +21.6%/+15.1%/ +19.3%。 直营快递方面，顺丰2025年7月业务量同比+33.7%；1-7月业务量同比+26.9%，得益于落实激活经营策 略，加大对前线业务的授权与激励，顺丰件量增速3-7月连续领跑行业。 8月12日，财政部、税务总局发布关于明确快递服务等增值税政策的公告，公告自发布之日起施行。其 中提到，快递企业提供快递服务取得的收入，按照" ...

价方面，2025年7月，行业单票收入为7.36元，同比下降5.33%，环比下降1.76%。一方面，快递小件化 趋势下，对快递行业单票收入产生影响；另一方面，价格战7月仍延续，但8月反内卷背景下，单票价格 或有所修复。 区域量价：量方面，2025年7月，一类地区/二类地区/三类地区快递业务量同比增速分别为 +14.2%/+16.8%/+28.0%，非产粮区业务量同比增速高于产粮区。 智通财经APP获悉，国海证券发布研报称，2025年7月，行业单票收入为7.36元，同比下降5.33%，环比 下降1.76%。一方面，快递小件化趋势下，对快递行业单票收入产生影响；另一方面，价格战7月仍延 续，但8月反内卷背景下，单票价格或有所修复。加盟快递在反内卷背景下，业绩有望修复，关注涨价 业绩弹性较大的申通快递(002468.SZ)、韵达股份(002120.SZ)，以及件量增长较快圆通速递 (600233.SH)，Q2件量增速修复的中通快递(02057)；价值股顺丰控股(06936)增长加速，需重点关注。 价方面，2025年7月，一类地区/二类地区/三类地区快递单票收入同比增速分别为-4.7%/-7.2%/-12.1%。 价格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a narrowing decline in express delivery prices in July, indicating a stronger-than-expected effort to combat "involution" in the industry, leading to a temporary easing of competitive pressure. The outlook remains positive for leading express delivery companies with confirmed performance growth and potential valuation recovery opportunities in e-commerce logistics [1][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In July 2025, the total express delivery volume increased by 15.1% year-on-year, with SF Express leading the growth at 33.7% [1]. - For the first seven months of 2025, the total express delivery volume reached 1,120.5 billion pieces, reflecting an 18.7% year-on-year increase, surpassing the postal administration's forecast of over 8% for the entire year [1]. - The e-commerce express delivery sector saw significant growth, with YTO, Yunda, and Shentong reporting year-on-year increases of 20.8%, 7.6%, and 11.9% respectively in July 2025 [1]. Group 2: Market Concentration - The concentration of the express delivery industry continues to increase, with the CR8 (concentration ratio of the top 8 companies) reaching 86.9 in the first seven months of 2025, up by 1.7 compared to the previous year [2]. - In Q2 2025, the market shares of leading e-commerce express companies were as follows: Zhongtong at 19.5%, YTO at 16.0%, Yunda at 13.2%, Shentong at 12.9%, and Jitu at 11.1%, all showing an increase from Q1 [2]. Group 3: Pricing and Revenue Trends - The express delivery industry's revenue in July 2025 grew by 8.9% year-on-year, while the average revenue per ticket decreased by 5.3% [3]. - For the first seven months of 2025, the industry's revenue increased by 9.9%, with a 7.4% decline in average revenue per ticket [3]. - The decline in average revenue per ticket is seen as a sign of reduced price competition, supported by regulatory efforts to combat "involution" in the industry [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The article suggests that the ongoing "anti-involution" measures will effectively ease competitive pressures in the industry, leading to a recovery in e-commerce express delivery profitability in the second half of the year [4]. - Future profitability will depend on the sustainability of price increases, with a focus on regulatory strength from the postal administration [4].

国泰海通主要观点如下： 7月价格降幅收窄，快递"反内卷"力度超预期，短期竞争压力趋缓，中长期继续保障良性竞争 7月快递件量同比+15.1%;顺丰深化落实激活经营，业务量同比+33.7%，增速持续领跑 1)全行业：2025年7月全国快递企业件量164.0亿件，同比+15.1%;2025年1-7月件量1120.5亿件，同比 +18.7%。小件化趋势持续、电商促销且退换货便捷，共同驱动2025年前7个月件量增速超过邮管局对 2025年全年件量增速超8%的预测。2)电商快递：圆通/韵达/申通2025年7月业务量分别同比 +20.8%/+7.6%/+11.9%;1-7月业务量分别同比+21.6%/+15.1%/+19.3%。3)直营快递：顺丰2025年7月业务 量同比+33.7%;1-7月业务量同比+26.9%，得益于落实激活经营策略，加大对前线业务的授权与激励，顺 丰件量增速3-7月连续领跑行业。 行业集中度持续集中，头部公司Q2市场份额环比提高 2022年初到2024年末，由于政策监管下价格竞争相对温和，份额向头部集中较缓慢。1)全行业：2025年 1-7月快递行业CR8为86.9，同比提升1.7，反映出2025年 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国海快递发布研报称，7月快递业务量增速与实物网上零售额增速形成剪刀差， 2025年快递小件化趋势延续，催化快递包裹同比快速增长。行业价格战7月仍延续，但8月反内卷背景 下，单票价格或有所修复。鉴于快递行业多条主线均存在布局的机会，维持快递行业"推荐"评级。加盟 快递在反内卷背景下，业绩有望修复，关注申通快递(002468.SZ)、韵达股份(002120.SZ)、圆通速递 (600233.SH)、中通快递-W(02057)。重点关注价值股顺丰控股(002352.SZ)。 ①量，2025年7月，一类地区/二类地区/三类地区快递业务量同比增速分别为+14.2%/+16.8%/+28.0%， 非产粮区业务量同比增速高于产粮区。②价，2025年7月，一类地区/二类地区/三类地区快递单票收入 同比增速分别为-4.7%/-7.2%/-12.1%。价格竞争主战场有向非产粮区转移趋势：1)非产粮区业务量增速 高于产粮区;2)产粮区多年竞争，价格与利润空间已近极限;3)非产粮区件量提升有望改善公司回程装载 率，有利于全网成本节降。 ①量，2025年7月，快递行业业务量同比增速(15.1%)>实物网上零售额同比 ...

Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express reported its Q2 2025 earnings, achieving a revenue of 11.832 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, while adjusted net profit was 2.053 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27%, meeting expectations [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In Q2 2025, the company handled 9.847 billion parcels, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.5%, indicating a recovery in parcel volume growth [2] - The adjusted net profit of 2.053 billion yuan in Q2 represents a decline of 27% year-on-year, with profit per parcel dropping to 0.21 yuan, down 0.12 yuan year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of price wars [2] Group 2: Industry Trends - The express delivery industry is experiencing a price increase driven by a reversal of the previous competitive environment, with both top-down and bottom-up pressures for price hikes [2] - The linkage between Guangdong and Yiwu demonstrates a commitment to eliminating price disparities, which is expected to support delivery fees and stabilize the industry [2] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Rating - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, now expecting adjusted net profits of 8.993 billion, 9.527 billion, and 10.689 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -11%, 6%, and 12% [2] - The average valuation of comparable companies in the industry is higher than that of ZTO Express, leading to a maintained "buy" rating despite the downward adjustment in profit expectations [2]

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China showed strong growth in July 2025, with revenue reaching 120.64 billion yuan and volume at 16.4 billion pieces, marking year-on-year increases of 8.9% and 15.1% respectively [1][2] - Cumulatively, from January to July 2025, the industry generated 839.42 billion yuan in revenue, a 9.9% increase year-on-year, and handled 112.05 billion pieces, reflecting an 18.7% growth [1][2] Industry Data - In July 2025, major express companies reported the following revenue and volume figures: SF Express at 18.657 billion yuan (+15.0%), Shentong at 4.287 billion yuan (+10.0%), Yunda at 4.120 billion yuan (+3.8%), and YTO at 5.371 billion yuan (+12.1%) [3] - The volume for these companies was 1.377 billion, 2.181 billion, 2.162 billion, and 2.583 billion pieces respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 33.7%, 11.9%, 7.6%, and 20.8% [3] - For the first seven months of 2025, the revenue figures were: SF Express at 127.812 billion yuan (+10.9%), Shentong at 28.980 billion yuan (+14.8%), Yunda at 28.851 billion yuan (+7.1%), and YTO at 37.943 billion yuan (+13.9%) [4] - The volume for the same period was 9.190 billion, 14.528 billion, 14.888 billion, and 17.446 billion pieces, with growth rates of 26.9%, 19.3%, 15.1%, and 21.6% respectively [4] Market Trends - The express delivery industry is benefiting from changes in demand, such as the trend towards lighter and smaller packages, an increase in reverse logistics, and the advantages of lower-tier markets [5] - The growth in volume is significantly outpacing the retail sales growth (+4.8%) and the growth in online retail sales (+6.3%), indicating strong demand resilience [5] - The industry is experiencing a price war, which is impacting per-package revenue, but there are signs of a shift towards more orderly competition as major players adjust their strategies [5] Investment Recommendations - The express delivery sector is currently viewed as undervalued, with expectations of continued growth driven by the expanding e-commerce market and new demands from lower-tier markets [6] - Companies to watch include leading e-commerce express firms such as ZTO Express, YTO Express, Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu Express, as well as SF Express, which is expected to benefit from cyclical improvements in the mid-to-high-end market [6]

快递反内卷：价格传导通路顺畅，行业盈利显著提升 20250820 摘要 义乌地区快递价格在 8 月已两轮提价基础上，再次提价 0.2 元至 1.4 元/ 件，与广东价格对齐，旨在锁定市场份额并推进反内卷，浙江、福建、 安徽等地预计跟进，涨幅在 0.3-0.5 元不等。 快递行业下半年竞争趋缓，四季度旺季盈利能力有望改善。2025 年新 一轮反内卷符合政策诉求，上半年特价件侵蚀利润，总部和加盟商均面 临盈利压力，总部利润下滑，加盟商生存空间受挤压。 快递员社保新规增加网点用人成本，若按全国平均 4,500 元社保基数缴 费，单票成本增加约 0.11 元；若按快递员整体收入缴费，则单票成本 增加约 0.23 元。已有 30%快递员缴纳社保的情况下，单票成本分别增 加 0.08 元和 0.16 元。 2025 年 1-7 月快递行业业务量同比增长 18.7%，需求旺盛支撑终端提 价，对增量影响有限。快递价格占电商客单价比例较低，即使终端价格 上涨 0.5 元，新增物流成本占比不到 1%，对电商经营影响较小。 提高终端价格后利润弹性较大，参考 2021-2022 年通达系利润表现， 2022 年单票利润及总利润同比增 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express [6][16] Core Views - The second quarter saw ZTO Express achieve a revenue of 11.832 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, while adjusted net profit decreased by 27% [6] - The volume of parcels increased by 16.5% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in growth, but profits were pressured by price wars [6] - The report highlights a shift in the industry towards price increases amidst a competitive environment, suggesting that ZTO Express is well-positioned to benefit from this trend [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for ZTO Express are as follows: - 2023: 38.419 billion yuan - 2024: 44.281 billion yuan - 2025E: 47.913 billion yuan - 2026E: 53.746 billion yuan - 2027E: 60.232 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 9% for 2023, 15% for 2024, 8% for 2025, 12% for 2026, and 12% for 2027 [3] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2025E: 89.93 billion yuan - 2026E: 95.27 billion yuan - 2027E: 106.89 billion yuan - Corresponding PE ratios are projected at 13x for 2025, 12x for 2026, and 11x for 2027 [6][3] Market Data - As of August 20, 2025, ZTO Express's closing price was 154.70 HKD, with a market capitalization of 124.451 billion HKD [4] - The stock has experienced a 52-week high of 219.00 HKD and a low of 123.70 HKD [4]

8月19日，韵达股份（002120）（002120）发布2025年7月快递服务主要经营指标快报显示，公司7月份 实现快递服务业务收入41.20亿元，同比增长3.75%；完成业务量21.62亿票，同比增长7.56%。 近年来，韵达股份在核心资源建设方面持续投入，构建多级转运体系，增强区域市场服务能力，提升运 营效率，缩短中转时效。公司以陆路运输为主，为满足高端快递产品的时效需求，并且把业务延伸到陆 路运输较难覆盖的地区，公司以航空运输作为陆路运输的有效补充，同时，公司积极部署包括无人机在 内的配送方式，目前，公司已在部分地区进行无人机试点。 国家邮政局公布7月快递行业数据，快递业务量同比增长15.1%。2025年7月我国快递业务量完成164.0亿 件，同比增长15.1%，快递业务收入完成1206.4亿元，同比增长8.9%。 华源证券认为，以旧换新政策持续为快递市场带来增量，快递公司积极开拓多元场景需求，满足消费者 消暑家电寄递需求，市场规模稳步扩大。 国泰海通交运分析团队认为，快递行业具有公共基础设施属性，邮管局两轮"反内卷"持续保障网络稳定 与良性竞争。此轮反内卷力度超预期，短期缓和竞争压力，未来监管力度或决 ...