证券研究报告 | 2025年10月14日 交通运输行业 10 月投资策略 优于大市 快递"反内卷"有望带来业绩修复，中美互征港口费有望带动航运运价上行 航运：近期，由于美国 301 港口征费措施将于 10 月 14 日实施，交通运输部 宣布中国自 10 月 14 日起对美国船舶实施特别港务费反制措施，中美互相加 征港口费的影响在于，1）预计超过四成的航运运力都会受到美国征收港口 费的影响，而受中国征收港口费影响的运力占比会明显更低，其中中国船企 是这次措施中受影响最大的；2）不同船型受影响程度不同，集运板块影响 或最小，油运和干散货板块影响更大；3）中美互征港口非对运价整体影响 有限，但短期政策实施初期的混乱，可能导致运价有所波动，集运方面，主 要因为包括中远海运在内的多家集运船东已承诺不上调运价，以维持市场竞 争力，集运船东将通过船期调配消化或者自己承担增加的成本，油运和干散 货方面，市场会有自我调节效果，无法承受成本的船舶可能退出美国航线， 再由其他船舶填补运力。油运方面，10 月初，由于远东假期期间成交有限， 原油运价表现平平，而随着 10 月 9 日美国 OFAC 新一轮制裁落地，以及 10 月 10 ...

Core Insights - The express delivery industry is undergoing significant changes aimed at breaking the previous low-price competition model, leading to improved financial performance for companies [1] - Several regions, including Zhejiang, Fujian, Hunan, Jiangxi, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, and Shanghai, have initiated price increase actions as part of the anti-involution movement [1] - Positive effects from the price adjustments are beginning to manifest, with reports of increased revenue per package for express delivery outlets [1] Industry Performance - Recent performance reports from four listed express delivery companies indicate a general increase in revenue per package in August [1] - A franchisee in Yiwu noted that after a widespread price increase in their area, the outlet's revenue significantly improved, estimating an additional monthly income of approximately 1 to 1.5 million yuan if the revenue per package increases by 0.1 yuan [1] - The adjustments in pricing are expected to enhance cash flow and overall profitability for delivery outlets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry in China is experiencing a slowdown in business volume growth, with a year-on-year increase of 12.3% in August, indicating a shift away from price-driven growth strategies due to anti-involution policies [1][3][4] Group 1: Business Volume and Growth Trends - In August, the total business volume of express delivery companies reached 16.15 billion pieces, with a year-on-year growth of 12.3% [1] - The growth rate of business volume has been gradually declining since March, influenced by a high base from the previous year and diminishing returns from price-driven strategies [1][3] - The growth in same-city delivery volume decreased by 0.8%, while inter-city delivery volume increased by 14.0% [1] Group 2: Company Performance and Pricing - SF Express continues to lead the industry with a growth rate exceeding 30% since April, while the growth rates of other major companies in the Tongda system have declined and are below the industry average [2] - In August, the average revenue per piece for Shentong, YTO, and Yunda increased by 4.6%, 3.4%, and 0.5% respectively [2] - Shentong showed the best performance in August, with a slight decline in volume growth but an increase in revenue per piece by 0.09 yuan [2] Group 3: Impact of Anti-Involution Policies - Recent anti-involution policies have effectively curbed price-driven behaviors in the industry, leading to a more sustainable growth model focused on service quality rather than price competition [3][4] - The upward trend in average revenue per piece is expected to continue, although the rebound may not be as strong as in 2021 due to a less intense price war this year [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The current anti-involution measures are expected to exceed market expectations, positively impacting company profitability and stock prices [5] - Companies to focus on include industry leaders with superior service quality such as Zhongtong Express and YTO Express, as well as Shentong Express, which has shown significant improvement in operational data [5]

2025 年 1-8 月快递行业跟踪点评 | | | | | | | 分析师：邓升亮（SAC | 执业证书编号： | S0340523050001） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 | 年 | 9 | 月 | 22 | 日 | | | | | | | | | | | | 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： | dengshengliang@dgzq.com.cn | 事件： 邮政局发布 2025 年 1-8 月快递发展报告与邮政行业运行情况。 交通运输行业 超配 （维持） 多省市启动快递反内卷，申通单票收入超预期 提升 点评： 8月快递价格止跌，件量增速放缓。据国家邮政局统计，2025年1-8月快递业务量累计完成1282.0亿件， 同比增长17.8%，其中8月快递业务量完成161.5亿件，同比增长12.3%。1-8月行业快递业务收入累计完 成9583.7亿元，同比增长9.2%，其中8月快递业务收入完成1189.6亿元，同比增长4.2%。8月行业平均 单票收入为7.37元，同比下降7.16%，环比提高0.01 ...

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China showed positive growth in August 2025, with revenue reaching 1189.6 billion yuan and business volume at 161.5 billion pieces, marking year-on-year increases of 4.2% and 12.3% respectively [1][2] - Cumulatively, from January to August 2025, the industry generated a total revenue of 9583.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.2%, while the total business volume reached 1282.0 billion pieces, up 17.8% year-on-year [1][2] Industry Data - In August 2025, major express companies reported the following revenue: SF Express at 186.57 billion yuan (+14.1%), Shentong at 44.34 billion yuan (+14.5%), Yunda at 41.19 billion yuan (+5.2%), and YTO Express at 53.90 billion yuan (+9.8%) [3] - Business volumes for the same companies were: SF Express at 14.06 billion pieces (+34.8%), Shentong at 21.47 billion pieces (+10.9%), Yunda at 21.45 billion pieces (+8.7%), and YTO Express at 25.11 billion pieces (+11.1%) [3] - The market shares for these companies were reported as follows: SF Express at 8.7%, Shentong at 13.3%, Yunda at 13.3%, and YTO Express at 15.5% [3] Company Performance - For the first eight months of 2025, the revenue figures were: SF Express at 1464.69 billion yuan (+11.3%), Shentong at 334.14 billion yuan (+14.8%), Yunda at 329.70 billion yuan (+6.9%), and YTO Express at 433.33 billion yuan (+13.3%) [4] - Business volumes for these companies were: SF Express at 105.96 billion pieces (+27.9%), Shentong at 166.75 billion pieces (+18.2%), Yunda at 170.33 billion pieces (+14.3%), and YTO Express at 199.57 billion pieces (+20.2%) [4] - The market shares for these companies were: SF Express at 8.3%, Shentong at 13.0%, Yunda at 13.3%, and YTO Express at 15.6% [4] Market Trends - The express delivery industry is benefiting from changes in demand, such as the increase in small and light packages, the rise of reverse logistics, and the advantages of lower-tier markets [5] - The industry is experiencing a shift from price wars to orderly competition, with recent price increases expected to improve profit margins for express companies [5] - The overall performance of the express delivery sector is anticipated to improve as price hikes become more widespread across the country [5] Investment Recommendations - The express delivery sector is currently viewed as undervalued, with continued growth in the e-commerce market and new demands emerging from lower-tier markets [6] - Companies such as YTO Express and Shentong are highlighted for their strong performance in both volume and price growth [6] - The sector is expected to benefit from a shift away from price wars, presenting long-term investment opportunities [6]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is entering a new phase of anti-involution, with a focus on the performance of Q3 reports and pricing during peak seasons [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - In August, the express delivery business revenue reached 118.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, while the business volume was 16.15 billion pieces, growing by 12.3% year-on-year [2] - The average single ticket revenue for the industry in August was 7.37 yuan per piece, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [3] - The growth rate of business volume in August showed a slight decline, with an expected annual growth rate of around 15% [3] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - YTO Express completed a business volume of 5.39 billion pieces in August, a year-on-year increase of 9.82%, with a single ticket revenue of 2.15 yuan, down 1.13% year-on-year [2] - Shentong Express achieved a business volume of 4.434 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 14.47%, with a single ticket revenue of 2.06 yuan, up 3.0% year-on-year [2] - Yunda's business volume reached 4.119 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 5.16%, with a single ticket revenue of 1.92 yuan, down 3.52% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Pricing Trends - The express delivery companies are experiencing a rise in single ticket prices, with Shentong leading the increase at +0.09 yuan, followed by YTO at +0.07 yuan, and Yunda at +0.01 yuan [4] - In September, various regions across the country are following suit with price increases, indicating a continued upward trend in industry pricing [5] - The expectation is that the industry single ticket price will continue to rise, contributing to profit recovery for the leading companies in Q3 [5]

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the express delivery industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance compared to the overall market [3][9]. Core Insights - The express delivery business revenue reached 118.96 billion yuan in August, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, while the business volume was 16.15 billion pieces, up 12.3% year-on-year [3]. - The average revenue per package in August was 7.37 yuan, reflecting a slight month-on-month increase of 0.1% [3]. - The report highlights a trend of price increases across various regions, with expectations for continued upward movement in industry pricing, particularly benefiting companies like Shentong Express and YTO Express [3]. - The report outlines three scenarios for the future of the industry: 1) Profit recovery leading to significant dividends while ensuring courier rights, 2) Continued competitive pressure in certain regions, and 3) Potential for mergers and acquisitions to optimize supply [3]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - YTO Express achieved a business volume of 5.39 billion pieces in August, a year-on-year increase of 9.82%, with a single ticket revenue of 2.15 yuan, down 1.13% [3]. - Shentong Express reported a business volume of 4.43 billion pieces, up 14.47% year-on-year, with a single ticket revenue of 2.06 yuan, an increase of 3.0% [3]. - Yunda Holdings completed a business volume of 4.12 billion pieces, a 5.16% year-on-year increase, with a single ticket revenue of 1.92 yuan, down 3.52% [3]. Price Trends - The report notes that the price increases in the express delivery sector are becoming more widespread, with various regions, including Jiangsu and Hubei, announcing price hikes [3]. - The report anticipates that the average industry price will continue to rise in September, contributing to profit recovery for major players [3]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on Shentong Express for its high elasticity, YTO Express for its competitive strength, and J&T Express for its growth potential in Southeast Asia [3]. - It also suggests keeping an eye on Zhongtong Express and Yunda Holdings for their performance in the upcoming quarterly reports [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [11]. Core Insights - VLCC freight rates have reached a new high since March 2023, driven by limited supply and OPEC's production increase, indicating a tight oil tanker supply-demand situation [6][20]. - The express delivery sector is experiencing a nationwide price increase trend, with a significant recovery in profitability expected in Q4 2025 [7][39]. Summary by Sections Oil Tankers - VLCC freight rates have surged, with a notable increase of 39.3% to 78k USD/day, reflecting a tight supply situation due to limited new ship deliveries and stringent sanctions [9][20]. - The correlation between VLCC freight rates and annual profits of Zhongyuan Shipping indicates potential for price recovery in the sector [6][36]. - OPEC's production policy shift has led to increased exports, further supporting oil transportation demand [28][32]. Express Delivery - The regulatory stance against "involution" in the express delivery sector has strengthened, leading to a nationwide price increase that began as regional trials [51][52]. - The average price across the country has risen by 0.23 RMB since July, with potential net profit increases for major companies like Zhongtong and Yunda expected in Q4 2025 [7][53]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in profitability for major express delivery companies, with projected net profit increases of 7.8 billion RMB for Zhongtong and 5.3 billion RMB for Yunda by Q4 2025 [7][56]. Passenger Transport - Domestic passenger transport volume has shown improvement, with a 8% year-on-year increase in domestic passenger volume and a 14% increase in international passenger volume [61]. - The average domestic passenger load factor has improved by 3.2 percentage points, while international load factors have increased by 4.0 percentage points [67]. - Despite a slight decline in ticket prices, the overall market is expected to see marginal improvements in revenue as demand continues to recover [67][75].

Summary of the Express Delivery Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The express delivery industry has undergone significant changes, transitioning from a "Spring and Autumn" phase (2017-2019) characterized by high growth and light asset models to a "Warring States" phase (2020 onwards) marked by heavy asset investments and price wars [3][10]. Key Points and Arguments - **Revenue Decline Factors**: The decline in single ticket revenue is attributed to three main factors: cost-driven efficiencies, rational competition, and irrational price wars. The past five years have seen revenue declines primarily driven by cost factors such as scale effects and automation upgrades [1][4][20]. - **Impact of New Entrants**: The entry of Jitu in 2020 triggered irrational price wars, leading to a decline in industry performance and valuations, putting pressure on networks and couriers [1][8]. - **Regulatory Actions**: Local governments, such as in Yiwu, have implemented measures to raise minimum delivery prices to curb irrational competition, which has stabilized the network and improved valuations for lower-ranked companies [1][9]. - **Market Recovery**: Following the anti-involution actions in 2021, leading companies regained market share, and single ticket revenue increased, significantly restoring profitability [10][11]. - **Future Price Competition**: The industry is expected to enter another price competition phase in the second half of 2024, with intensified price wars anticipated post-Chinese New Year in 2025 [1][12]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Regulatory Influence**: The effectiveness of the anti-involution measures heavily relies on regulatory strength, which has shown to alleviate competitive pressures in the short term and promote healthy competition in the long term [2][16]. - **Profitability Elasticity**: Future profitability in the express delivery sector will depend on the sustainability of price increases and regulatory actions. Current net profits for major companies are low, indicating a need for effective price adjustments to enhance profitability [17][21]. - **Long-term Implications**: The current anti-involution measures are expected to foster a healthy competitive environment, leading to industry consolidation and the rise of leading companies, ultimately benefiting consumers and investors alike [22]. Conclusion - The express delivery industry is at a critical juncture, with regulatory measures playing a pivotal role in shaping its future. The focus on sustainable pricing and profitability recovery presents significant investment opportunities in the sector, particularly for leading companies poised for growth in a more stable competitive landscape [19][22].

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and adjusted net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating strong growth in the Southeast Asian market and challenges in the Chinese market [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's revenue reached $5.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.1% [1] - Adjusted EBITDA for H1 2025 was $440 million, reflecting a 24.2% year-on-year growth [1] - Adjusted net profit for H1 2025 was $160 million, showing a substantial increase of 147.1% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Southeast Asia Market - The company's business volume in Southeast Asia grew by 57.9% year-on-year to 3.23 billion pieces, with market share increasing by 5.4 percentage points to 32.8% [1] - The average revenue per piece and cost per piece were $0.61 and $0.50 respectively, down by $0.13 and $0.10 year-on-year [1] - Adjusted EBIT per piece increased by $0.007 to $0.073, with adjusted EBIT growing by 74.0% to $160 million [1] Group 3: China Market - In H1 2025, the company’s volume in China increased by 20.0% to 10.6 billion pieces, with market share rising by 0.1 percentage points to 11.1% [1] - Average revenue per piece and cost per piece in China were $0.30 and $0.28 respectively, both down by $0.04 year-on-year [1] - Adjusted EBIT per piece decreased by $0.006 to $0.001, with adjusted EBIT declining by 78.3% to $10 million due to intensified competition [1] Group 4: New Markets - The company’s volume in new markets grew by 21.7% year-on-year to 17 million pieces, with market share increasing by 0.1 percentage points to 6.2% [2] - Average revenue per piece and cost per piece in new markets were $2.18 and $1.92 respectively, both up by $0.04 year-on-year [2] - Adjusted EBIT per piece improved by $0.059 to -$0.106, leading to a positive EBITDA of $2 million [2] Group 5: Strategic Outlook - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the expansion of Chinese cross-border e-commerce platforms, particularly in Southeast Asia [3] - The management model is effective in driving volume growth through high cost-performance services [3] - There is potential for recovery in the Chinese market as pricing stabilizes in key regions [3] - The company anticipates adjusted net profits of $340 million, $550 million, and $860 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 34.8, 21.8, and 13.9 [3]