Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the shipping sector, expecting a strong start in 2026, particularly for companies like ST Song, China Shipbuilding, and China Power [5]. Core Insights - The shipping industry has seen improvements in new ship orders and pricing since October, with expectations for a strong performance in 2026. The report highlights the potential for a seasonal price increase in January, particularly in the oil and bulk cargo sectors [5]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the railway and highway freight volumes, with steady growth observed. Data from the Ministry of Transport shows a slight decrease in railway freight but an increase in highway truck traffic [5][6]. - The airline industry is at a turning point, with expectations for significant improvements in airline profitability due to supply constraints and increasing passenger volumes [5]. - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined for future profitability and market dynamics [5]. Summary by Sections Shipping Sector - New ship orders and pricing have improved since October, with expectations for a strong performance in 2026. Companies like ST Song, China Shipbuilding, and China Power are highlighted as key players [5]. - The report notes a significant drop in VLCC rates, with a 34.4% decrease observed on December 24, while crude oil tanker rates showed a 7.6% increase due to supply constraints [5]. Railway and Highway - Railway freight volume was reported at 78.37 million tons, a 1.96% decrease week-on-week, while highway truck traffic increased by 2.02% to 55.44 million vehicles [5][6]. Airline Industry - The report suggests that the airline industry is poised for a golden era, with supply constraints and increased international travel expected to enhance profitability [5]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is undergoing a transformation, with three scenarios proposed for future market dynamics, focusing on price recovery and potential mergers [5]. Overall Transportation Index - The transportation sector index rose by 1.37%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.95% [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery industry shows resilient demand, with a "de-involution" trend driving up prices and releasing profit elasticity for companies. This creates a favorable competitive environment for the e-commerce express delivery sector in the medium to long term. Companies like SF Express and JD Logistics are expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and ongoing cost reductions, with potential for both performance and valuation increases [16][17] - In the shipping sector, the outlook for crude oil transportation is positive due to the OPEC+ production increase cycle and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. The geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East may enhance VLCC freight rate elasticity. The market for oil transportation is expected to improve significantly in Q4 2025, with recommendations to focus on companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [17] - The shipping market is anticipated to recover, driven by environmental regulations limiting the operation of older fleets and the upcoming production of the West Manganese iron ore mine by the end of 2025. This is expected to catalyze global demand for bulk commodities [17] - The aviation sector is expected to see Q3 performance as a signal for a long-term market upturn, with stable demand growth and a tightening supply situation [17] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - In November 2025, the express delivery business volume reached 18.06 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. The total revenue was 137.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%. The growth rates of major companies varied, with YTO Express and Shentong Express showing significant increases in business volume [4][31] - The "de-involution" trend in the express delivery industry has led to improved pricing, strengthening profit recovery expectations for the fourth quarter [4][16] Shipping and Ports - The BDTI index for crude oil transportation increased by 1.13% to 1399 points, while the BCTI index for refined oil transportation rose by 1.0% to 755 points. The BDI index for bulk shipping decreased by 11.9% to 2147 points [12][47] - The shipping market is expected to benefit from a recovery in demand and the green transition in shipbuilding, with recommendations to focus on companies like China Shipbuilding and China State Shipbuilding [17] Aviation - In November 2025, civil aviation transported approximately 60 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, and cargo and mail transport reached 930,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.9% [58] - The overall passenger load factor for major airlines was 85.57%, indicating a stable demand environment [64] Logistics and Supply Chain - The logistics sector is experiencing a positive transformation, with companies like Shenzhen International expected to benefit from upgrades in logistics parks and improved profitability [17] - The chemical logistics market is also showing potential for growth, with significant opportunities for leading companies like Milky Way and Xingtong [17] Ports - The total cargo throughput at Chinese ports for the week of December 8-14, 2025, was 262.48 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.16%, while container throughput was 6.59 million TEU, also down by 0.89% [79]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, particularly recommending stocks such as China Shipbuilding, China Power, and Sumec [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the launch of the first shipping industry index fund on December 19, 2025, and notes a continued increase in second-hand ship prices, with a 5-year-old VLCC price rising by $2 million to $120 million [4]. - Seasonal fluctuations are observed in freight rates, with oil and bulk carrier second-hand prices increasing. The report recommends stocks like COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Energy [4]. - The report anticipates a significant improvement in airline profitability due to supply constraints and increasing passenger demand, recommending stocks such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Industry - The second-hand ship price index increased by 0.38% to 194.32 points, with a recommendation for COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Energy [4]. - VLCC freight rates decreased by 11% to $101,623 per day, while Suezmax rates increased by 9% to $78,107 per day [4]. Airline Sector - The report indicates that the global aircraft manufacturing chain is facing unprecedented challenges, with an aging fleet and supply constraints expected to continue [4]. - Airlines are projected to experience significant profitability improvements, with recommendations for stocks such as China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines [4]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined for industry performance [4]. - Recommended stocks include Shentong Express and Yunda Holdings, with a focus on companies benefiting from Southeast Asian e-commerce growth [4]. Rail and Road Transport - Rail freight volume and highway truck traffic are expected to maintain steady growth, with data showing a slight decrease in freight volume [4]. - The report suggests that traditional high-dividend investment themes and potential value management catalysts will be key investment lines through 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, particularly recommending stocks such as China Shipbuilding, China Power, and Sumec [4]. Core Insights - The launch of the first shipping industry index fund on December 19, 2025, indicates a growing interest in the sector. The prices of second-hand ships continue to rise, with a notable increase in the price of 5-year-old VLCC ships by $2 million to $120 million [4]. - The report highlights a seasonal decline in freight rates as the Christmas holiday approaches, while the prices of oil and bulk second-hand ships are on the rise. The second-hand bulk carrier price index increased by 0.38% to 194.32 points [4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the air transport sector, predicting significant improvements in airline profitability due to supply constraints and increasing passenger demand, recommending stocks like China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Industry - The report notes that the second-hand ship market is experiencing a positive trend, with specific recommendations for stocks such as China Shipbuilding and China Power [4]. - VLCC freight rates have decreased by 11% week-on-week, averaging $101,623 per day, while the Middle East to Far East route recorded $109,772 per day [4]. - The report anticipates that shipping rates may face downward pressure but highlights shipowners' reluctance to significantly lower prices [4]. Air Transport - The report indicates that the global aircraft manufacturing chain is facing unprecedented challenges, with an aging fleet expected to continue. The report suggests that airlines are poised for a golden era of profitability due to improved operational metrics and demand recovery [4]. - Recommended stocks in the airline sector include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Cathay Pacific [4]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined for industry performance. Recommendations include Shentong Express and Yunda Express, with a focus on companies benefiting from Southeast Asian e-commerce growth [4]. - The report notes that the logistics demand remains robust, with rail freight and highway truck traffic showing steady growth [4]. Market Performance - The transportation index rose by 2.04%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.31 percentage points. The air transport sector saw the highest increase at 6.84% [5][12]. - The report provides insights into the performance of various sub-sectors within transportation, highlighting the resilience of air transport and the challenges faced by the express delivery sector [5][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key companies in the aviation and logistics sectors, including China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and SF Express [2]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from multiple catalysts, including the recovery of passenger demand and improved ticket pricing due to high load factors and regulatory support [4][6]. - The logistics and express delivery industry is experiencing a divergence in growth rates, with a focus on improving operational quality through policies aimed at reducing "involution" and the adoption of automation technologies [6][7]. Summary by Sections Aviation Sector - The report highlights the positive impact of the national strategy to expand domestic demand, which is expected to drive up airline stock prices. For instance, companies like China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines saw stock increases of 12.48% and 13.60%, respectively [4]. - Key metrics for airlines from December 15 to December 19 include average daily flights and aircraft utilization rates, with notable year-on-year increases in flight numbers for several airlines [4]. - The report emphasizes the long-term growth potential of the aviation sector, driven by a combination of recovering demand, regulatory support for pricing, and a gradual recovery in aircraft utilization rates [6]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is witnessing a mixed trend in volume and pricing, with November data showing a year-on-year increase in delivery volumes for some companies while others face declines [6]. - The report notes that the integration of Danbird Logistics into Shentong Express is expected to enhance scale and operational efficiency [6]. - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to improve profitability across the express delivery industry, with a focus on enhancing service quality and pricing strategies [6][7]. Infrastructure - The report suggests that the infrastructure sector, particularly highways, remains stable with consistent cash dividends and ongoing expansion projects [6]. - Data from December 8 to December 14 indicates a slight decline in freight traffic on highways and railways, but overall port throughput showed a year-on-year increase [6]. Shipping and Trade - The shipping sector is experiencing fluctuations in freight rates, with oil shipping showing strength while dry bulk rates are declining. The report suggests that geopolitical factors may reshape global shipping dynamics [7]. - The report recommends monitoring companies in the shipping sector for potential investment opportunities, particularly those positioned to benefit from seasonal demand increases [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, specifically recommending China Power, China Shipbuilding, and China Ship Defense, while also highlighting Yangtze River and Songfa shares as potential investments [4]. Core Insights - The report indicates an improvement in new ship orders during November and December, reinforcing the logic of the replacement cycle. The strong second-hand ship prices are positively influencing the new ship market [4]. - The report notes that VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates have exceeded expectations, with a current average of $114,420 per day, despite a slight week-on-week decline of 1%. The report anticipates significant upward potential for both charter rates and second-hand ship prices [4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the railway freight volume and highway truck traffic, suggesting steady growth in these sectors [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market - VLCC freight rates have shown a 110% increase in Q4 compared to Q3, with one-year charter rates rising by 23%. The report highlights that the second-hand ship prices have yet to reflect these changes [4]. - The Suezmax crude oil tanker rates have decreased by 4% to $71,888 per day, while Aframax rates increased by 3% to $62,987 per day [4]. Air Transportation - The report discusses the unprecedented challenges in the aircraft manufacturing chain and the ongoing trend of aging aircraft globally. It predicts a significant improvement in airline profitability as the industry approaches a turning point [4]. - Recommended airlines include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines, among others, due to their strong demand and supply dynamics [4]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined: price stabilization leading to profit recovery, continued competitive pressure, and potential mergers and acquisitions [4]. - Companies to watch include Shentong Express, YTO Express, and ZTO Express, with a focus on their performance in the upcoming annual reports [4]. Road and Rail - The report cites data from the Ministry of Transport indicating that from December 1 to December 7, national railway freight volume was 80.19 million tons, a decrease of 2.35% week-on-week [4]. - The report suggests that the highway sector will benefit from two main investment themes throughout 2025: high dividend yields and potential value management catalysts [4].

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry in China is expected to experience a gradual "de-involution" by 2026, with the top two companies leading in volume growth due to accumulated network capabilities and higher operational efficiency [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - By 2026, the top two express delivery companies are projected to maintain a leading growth rate in shipment volume, leveraging their network capabilities and operational efficiencies to enhance cost and service quality advantages [1] - The Chinese express delivery network model is anticipated to expand internationally, leveraging competitive advantages to deeply bind with high-growth e-commerce platforms [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The United States is expected to enter a rate-cutting cycle by 2026, which may signal a recovery in cross-border logistics demand [1] - Limited growth in the supply of wide-body cargo aircraft is likely to support stable long-term contract prices in air freight for 2026 [1]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨运输 [Table_Title] 快递降速龙头回归，文旅民航融合发展 ——交运周专题 2025W49 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本周，快递、航空、海运板块均迎来积极变化：1）快递受益"反内卷"，快递单价如期修复。 在价格之外，电商降速提质高质量发展，龙头快递份额加速提升，格局重回分化，看好龙头公 司中通快递、圆通速递。2）文化和旅游部、中国民航局发布关于印发《文化和旅游与民航业融 合发展行动方案》的通知，重点提出优化银发旅游适老化无障碍出行环境，提升国内旅游出行 通达性，加密入境旅游航线等方针，有望持续提振航空出行需求。3）海运方面，赫伯罗特拟收 购以星。从时机上看，集运景气承压，以星市值大幅回落，行业收并购窗口或打开。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490520020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490520080027 SAC：S0490524120001 SFC：BQK468 SFC：BWN875 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% [Table_Ti ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, particularly highlighting the strong performance of dry bulk freight rates and VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) rates, while also noting the recent increase in new ship prices for oil and bulk carriers [5][6]. Core Insights - Dry bulk freight rates have exceeded expectations, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reaching 2560 points, a 12.5% increase week-on-week. Capesize rates have surged by 22.7%, marking the highest levels in nearly two years [5][6]. - The VLCC market remains robust, with current charter rates at $57,000 per day, significantly higher than the spot market rate of $140,000 per day. The report suggests that if spot rates decline, charter rates may rise, indicating a potential seasonal trading phase [5]. - Newbuilding prices for oil and bulk carriers have seen consecutive increases over the past three weeks, with second-hand ship prices also reaching new highs, suggesting a turning point in the newbuilding market [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the seasonal decline in freight rates from Christmas to the Spring Festival, which could impact market dynamics [5]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market Performance - The shipping index has shown a decline of 0.47%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.64%. Among the sub-sectors, the intermediate products and consumer goods supply chain services saw the largest increase of 4.20%, while the airline transportation sector experienced the most significant drop of 2.05% [6][13]. Freight Rates and Trends - The report highlights that the dry bulk freight rates have reached a two-year high, driven by increased shipments from major exporters like Australia and Brazil. The Capesize rates have particularly benefited from tight capacity and favorable weather conditions affecting vessel turnover [5][6]. - The report also notes fluctuations in oil tanker rates, with VLCC rates experiencing a slight decline of 3% week-on-week, while Suezmax rates decreased by 2% [5]. Airline and Logistics Sector - The airline industry is poised for significant improvement due to a combination of rising passenger demand and constrained supply, with recommendations to focus on major airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines [5]. - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with potential for price recovery and improved profitability, particularly for companies like Shentong Express and YTO Express [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends continued investment in companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping, COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation, and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, while also suggesting a watch on companies like SITC International Holdings and Pacific Basin Shipping [5].

浙商证券（601878）发布研报称，上调中通快递-W(02057)至"买入"评级，第三季度业绩稳健，在"反内 卷"背景下实现量价齐升。中通作为行业龙头，未来将更加专注网络稳定，强化竞争优势，推进高数量 向高质量的转型。该行预计2025-2027年归母净利润分别为96.2、110.2、120.8亿元，对应PE分别为 12.0、10.4和9.4倍。 浙商证券主要观点如下： 2025年Q3业绩调整后净利润同比+2.0% 2025Q3中通实现营业收入118.6亿元，同比+11.1%，毛利为29.6亿元，调整后净利润25.1亿元，同比 +5.0%。25Q3快递业务收入110.2亿元，同比+11.6%。该增长是由于包裹量增长9.8%及单票价格增长 1.7%带动。由直销机构产生的直客业务收入增长141.2%，这主要得益于电商退货包裹量的增加。物料 销售收入主要包括电子热敏纸面单销售收入，增长0.5%。25Q3经营活动产生的现金流为人民币32亿 元，同比基本持平，资本支出为11.9亿元。 25Q3单票调整后净利润0.26元，24Q3为0.27元;环比25Q2提升0.05元。快递反内卷背景下，第一轮涨价 已覆盖全国超90%区域 ...