Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the sales of new homes in China are expected to decline, but the rate of decline is slowing down. In 2025, the total sales of commercial housing are projected to be 8.39 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6%, while the sales area is expected to be 881 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year [4][9]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing inventory reduction efforts, with the area of existing home sales increasing to 316 million square meters, accounting for 35.91% of total sales area, which is a 5.07% increase from 2024 [15][19]. - The report notes that the second-hand housing market is experiencing an upward trend in transaction volume, which is partially diverting demand from new homes. The prices of second-hand homes are under pressure, which may impact new home sales [30][28]. Summary by Sections New Homes - The sales scale of new homes is expected to decline in 2025, but the decline rate is narrowing. The total sales amount is projected at 8.39 trillion, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.6%, and the sales area at 881 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year [4][9]. - The report indicates that the sales area decline is less severe than the sales amount decline, suggesting a trend of "price for volume" [9][10]. Second-Hand Homes - The report states that the transaction area of second-hand homes is on the rise, with a total sales area of 201 million square meters in 2025, showing a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.2% [28][26]. - The prices of second-hand homes are under pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 7% in first-tier cities, which may affect new home sales due to increased competition [30][31]. Land Market - The report notes a reduction in the total area of land sold in 300 cities, with a total planning area of 624 million square meters, down 13.27% year-on-year. However, the average land price has increased compared to 2024 [39][41]. - State-owned enterprises are leading in land acquisition, with major players like China Overseas Land, China Merchants Shekou, and Poly Developments being the top three in land acquisition amounts [41][42]. Investment Trends - The report highlights a continued decline in real estate development investment, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 13.9% in December. The report indicates that the market is still under pressure, with no clear signs of recovery [45][48]. - New construction and completion areas are also experiencing a decline, with new construction down 20.4% year-on-year, reflecting a cautious approach from developers in response to market conditions [48][50]. Hong Kong Real Estate Market - The report discusses the easing of housing policies in Hong Kong, which has reduced transaction costs and attracted new demand. The influx of talent has also increased rental demand, contributing to a gradual recovery in rental prices [52][56]. - The report notes that the mortgage rates in Hong Kong have decreased, falling below rental yields, which has improved the attractiveness of property investments [58][59]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on developers with sufficient new value in core areas, such as Country Garden, Greentown China, and China Resources Land. It also recommends paying attention to real estate ETFs like Huabao CSI 800 Real Estate ETF and Southern CSI All-Share Real Estate ETF [60][62].

消息面上，花旗研究报告指出，中国房地产行业在2025财年将面临大幅减值及毛利率下降的挑战，为 2026年至2030年的新开局奠定基础。尽管如此，多数房企，尤其是国有企业，预计仍将录得盈利。花旗 认为，去库存进展顺利，但由于第四代住宅品质提升，通过现有库存实现的销售额可能减少。完成债务 重组的公司在债务削减或债转股后有望录得显着净利润，部分公司可能启动第二次重组计划。 国泰海通发布研报称，随着公司历史库存项目逐步去化、结转压力释放，住宅开发业务正进入新旧项目 切换阶段。2025年以来公司逆周期加大投资力度，新增项目高度集中于一线及强二线城市核心优质地 块，项目质量显著提升。在此背景下，新项目利润贡献有望逐步对冲历史包袱，推动业绩释放与盈利能 力修复。同时，作为头部央企房企，公司在城市核心区旧改及大型综合体等高门槛项目中的获取能力更 强，有望在资源向头部集中的阶段持续受益。 中国海外发展(00688)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨2.9%，报14.19港元，成交额2.73亿港元。 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of housing and urban construction work in Guangxi for 2026 will be on urban renewal, stabilizing the real estate market, and promoting green development in urban and rural construction [1] - In the past year, Guangxi has made significant progress in housing and urban construction, including the renovation of 1,195 old urban communities and the installation of 3,895 elevators in existing residential buildings [1] - The real estate market has shown signs of stabilization, with a 100% delivery rate in the housing delivery battle and the construction of 66,000 various types of affordable and resettlement housing units throughout the year [1] Group 2 - In 2026, Guangxi plans to continue reducing inventory of non-residential commercial housing and will acquire over 10,000 existing commercial housing units for use as affordable housing [1] - The province aims to collect over 24,000 various types of affordable housing units and over 10,000 resettlement housing units from urban village renovations [1] - Guangxi will implement a "good housing" construction plan and associated standards to enhance property service quality and improve living conditions for residents [1] Group 3 - The construction of "pocket parks" has been widely promoted across Guangxi, enhancing leisure options for citizens [2] - In 2026, Guangxi will strengthen urban green construction and improve the urban park system by building community parks and "pocket parks" [2] - The province will explore the application of digital intelligence in the construction sector, aiming to enhance management and service innovation [2] Group 4 - Guangxi will conduct safety inspections and rectification actions for small and scattered projects and residential property services to ensure safety in urban construction [2] - A mechanism for the regular management of self-built houses will be established, and fire safety supervision at high-rise construction sites will be strengthened [2] - Continuous efforts will be made to address illegal activities related to fire safety inspections [2]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry in China is undergoing a deep adjustment, with significant declines in investment, sales area, and sales revenue in 2025, indicating a challenging market environment [1][3][9]. Investment and Sales Data - In 2025, national real estate development investment reached 82,788 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2% [1]. - The sales area of new commercial housing was 88,101 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, while the sales revenue was 83,937 billion yuan, reflecting a 12.6% decline [1][9]. - The construction area for real estate developers was 659,890 million square meters, a decrease of 10.0% year-on-year, with residential construction down 10.3% [3]. Construction Activity - New construction area was 58,770 million square meters, down 20.4%, with residential new construction area at 42,984 million square meters, a decline of 19.8% [4]. - The completion area was 60,348 million square meters, down 18.1%, with residential completions at 42,830 million square meters, a decrease of 20.2% [4]. Market Dynamics - The market is still in a "de-inventory" phase due to declining new home sales and significantly reduced land transactions over the past two years [5]. - Some central and state-owned enterprises are maintaining orderly construction activities, and there is still demand for well-located properties, which is boosting market confidence [6]. Financial Policies and Support - Local governments are enhancing "guarantee delivery" efforts, with recent financial policies aimed at stabilizing financing for projects on the "white list," which will support the delivery of homes [7]. Leading Companies - In 2025, ten real estate companies achieved sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, with four surpassing 200 billion yuan. These include major players like Poly Development, China Overseas Land & Investment, and Vanke [9]. - The top ten companies by investment are primarily state-owned enterprises, with significant investments from China Overseas, China Resources, Poly Development, and China Merchants Shekou, indicating a strategic positioning during market adjustments [9]. Market Trends - December 2025 showed signs of improvement, with new commercial housing sales area increasing by 39.87% month-on-month and sales revenue rising by 44.07% [10]. - The average price of new residential properties in first-tier cities saw a slight decrease, with Shanghai experiencing a minor increase, while other cities like Beijing and Guangzhou reported declines [10][11]. - The second-hand housing market is also seeing a shift, with increased transactions in second-hand homes as buyers seek more affordable options [12].

核心 观点：稳定房地产对于稳定国民经济、稳定内需增长、减少资产收缩与提振预期具有关键作用，在行业累年下行与估值收缩后，行业政策有望 出现重要拐点，推动投资机遇。 摘要 ▶转型牛迈向新高度：价值也会有春天。 无风险收益下沉、资本市场改革、经济结构转型，构成了当下中国股市"转型牛"的三大关键动力。其中中国产业 结构转型，经济社会发展不确定性下降，对投资线索的把握尤为关键。累年下行后，传统产业L型"一竖"走向"一横"，拖累边际减少；新技术产业迈入创新 扩张周期，中国制造业凭借竞争优势正在全球扩张，经济社会发展的不确定性下降。因此，"转型牛"的典型特点是经济结构转型与资本市场改革交相辉 映，2026年中国市场重估是广泛的，科技与非科技都有机会。对于传统经济而言，房地产对于稳定国民经济与内需增长、减少资产收缩与提振预期具有关 键作用，我们认为房地产政策渐行渐近，中国传统经济能见度正在提高，这将带来价值股和细分行业龙头的投资机会。 ▶行业累年下行，政策基调积极转向，地产与内需有望进入重要拐点。 中国房地产行业经过累年下行，已逐步完成深度调整，步入探底与磨底区间。截止 25Q4，我国住宅投资占GDP比重回落至4.5%，较2 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for stronger measures to stabilize the real estate market in 2026, with a focus on controlling supply, reducing inventory, and improving the quality of housing [2][3] - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference highlighted the urgency of stabilizing the real estate market, indicating that the current situation is more pressing than in late 2024 and early 2025 [3] - The government aims to encourage the acquisition of existing residential properties for use as affordable housing, with a specific policy tool introduced in May 2024 allowing for a 300 billion yuan re-loan for this purpose [4][5] Group 2 - The direction for reducing real estate inventory has become clearer, with a focus on controlling new land supply and revitalizing existing properties [4] - Innovative practices in some cities have emerged, such as using "housing vouchers" in an "old for new" exchange model to facilitate the acquisition of older homes, thereby avoiding pricing issues associated with new properties [5] - The construction of "good houses" is a new initiative aimed at improving housing quality, which is expected to stabilize investment in the real estate sector while balancing the need to reduce existing inventory [6]

南方财经记者庞成广州报道 为适应房地产市场供求关系的新变化，支持构建房地产发展新模式，1月17日，中国人民银行、国家金 融监督管理总局发布了《关于调整商业用房购房贷款最低首付款比例政策》，明确商业用房（含"商住 两用房"）购房贷款最低首付款比例调整为不低于30%。 上述政策在广东迅速落地。1月21日，南方财经记者从中国人民银行广东省分行获悉，广东市场利率定 价自律机制按照因城施策原则，结合当地房地产市场形势变化及各城市政府调控要求，对广东省20个城 市（不含深圳）的商业用房购房贷款政策作出调整： 自2026年1月21日起，商业用房购房贷款最低首付 款比例调整为不低于30%。此前，商业用房贷款最低首付比例为50%，商住两用房贷款最低首付比例为 45%。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 同时，在政策下限基础上，辖内各商业银行可按照市场化、法治化原则，结合自身经营情况、客户风险 状况等因素，合理确定每笔商业用房购房贷款具体首付款比例。 市场普遍认为，此次下调至30%后，显著降低购房者的初始资金压力，有助于释放购置需求。中指研究 院分析指出，本次出台的政策直接降低了购买商业用房的门槛，有助于提升商用房市场活跃度，也是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies in China has evolved from simple quantitative coordination to a deeper integration at the mechanism level, effectively supporting the real economy and directing financial resources towards key areas such as technological innovation [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Collaboration - The establishment of a joint working group by the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China, along with multiple "re-lending + fiscal subsidy" policy combinations, has demonstrated a close collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies [1]. - The combination of fiscal policy's leverage and guidance with the ample liquidity released by monetary policy has resulted in a synergistic effect, achieving more than the sum of its parts [1][2]. - The use of government financing guarantees has helped alleviate financing difficulties for small and micro enterprises and the agricultural sector, showcasing the effectiveness of fiscal policy tools [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - By 2026, the focus of fiscal and monetary policy collaboration is expected to center on areas such as technological innovation and real estate inventory reduction, with regular operations in government bond trading anticipated [3]. - The monetary policy will provide a suitable financial environment for fiscal efforts, while new policy financial tools will leverage fiscal funds to attract more financial resources for key sectors [3][4]. - The integration of fiscal and monetary policies will continue to enhance the effectiveness of funding directed towards small and micro enterprises, technological innovation, and consumer spending [4].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is entering a new phase of stabilization, supported by proactive adjustments in investment and new construction, leading to improved supply-demand dynamics and a gradual recovery from previous downturns [1][3]. Group 1: New Construction, Investment, and Transaction Dynamics - The balance among new construction, investment, and transaction volumes is crucial for the long-term stability of the real estate sector. In 2025, new construction area decreased by 20.4% to 590 million square meters, with residential new construction down by 19.8% to 430 million square meters, marking a historical low where new construction only accounted for 67% of new home sales [3][6]. - The proactive adjustment in new construction has alleviated inventory pressure, with major cities seeing a decline in narrow inventory levels, and new supply generally falling below transaction volumes. This dynamic adaptation has prevented exacerbation of supply-demand imbalances and ensured the competitiveness of quality new projects [3][6]. - In 2025, total real estate development investment reached 8.3 trillion yuan, down 17.2% year-on-year, with its share of new home sales dropping to 98.6%. This indicates a return to positive cash flow for the industry, reflecting a sales-driven investment model that supports project operations and profit realization [6][8]. Group 2: Financing Environment and Economic Support - The national economy showed resilience in 2025, with GDP reaching 140.2 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year. This economic backdrop, along with rising urbanization rates at 67.89%, provides a supportive environment for the real estate market [8]. - Financial indicators improved, with M2 money supply growing by 8.5% year-on-year. The recovery in resident long-term loans, which increased by 10.6 billion yuan in December, reflects effective market stabilization measures [8]. - Continued policy support from financial authorities, including adjustments to monetary policy tools and loan extensions for "white list" projects, aims to enhance the financing environment and reduce burdens on existing projects, allowing for a more extended adjustment period for the industry [8]. Group 3: Sales and Price Trends - In 2025, new residential sales area totaled 880 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, with sales value declining by 12.6% to 840 billion yuan. The cumulative decline was exacerbated by a high base from the previous year, although monthly data showed signs of marginal improvement [9][12]. - The average price of new homes in December 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of 3.0%, with first-tier cities down 1.7%. However, the number of cities experiencing price stabilization increased to 12, indicating a potential structural recovery in certain markets [12][14]. - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth and stabilize prices, which may provide new support for housing prices in 2026, particularly in areas with high population density and proximity to industrial clusters [12][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to stabilize in 2026, with sales volume and value declines anticipated to narrow. The proactive adjustments in supply and demand indicators since 2025 are expected to yield positive results, with improved buyer confidence [14][15]. - Inventory reduction remains a priority, with new construction expected to decrease by around 10% in 2026. Policies aimed at acquiring existing properties for affordable housing and adjusting land supply dynamically will facilitate inventory clearance [15]. - The industry is transitioning towards a healthier ecosystem, with a widening gap between investment and sales volumes. The focus is shifting from expansion to optimization of existing assets, which is expected to create a more sustainable operational environment [15].

Core Insights - The real estate industry in China is undergoing a deep adjustment, with significant declines in investment and sales metrics for 2025 [1][3][5] Group 1: Investment and Sales Data - Real estate development investment reached 82,788 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2% [1] - The sales area of new commercial housing was 88,101 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, while the sales amount was 83,937 billion yuan, reflecting a 12.6% decline [1] - The total construction area for real estate enterprises was 659,890 million square meters, a decrease of 10.0% year-on-year, with residential construction down 10.3% [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The new housing starts area was 58,770 million square meters, down 20.4%, indicating a continued downward trend in new construction [3] - The completion area of houses was 60,348 million square meters, down 18.1%, with residential completions declining by 20.2% [3] - The market is still in a "de-inventory" phase, influenced by declining new home sales and reduced land transactions over the past two years [3] Group 3: Company Performance - In 2025, ten real estate companies achieved sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, with four surpassing 200 billion yuan, including major players like Poly Development and China Overseas Land [5] - The top ten companies by investment are primarily state-owned enterprises, with significant contributions from China Overseas, China Resources, and Poly Development, which together account for over 30% of total investment [5] - These leading companies are leveraging core city demand to maintain operational resilience, while many private firms are still seeking opportunities to rebuild their core value [5] Group 4: Market Trends and Future Outlook - December 2025 showed signs of improvement, with new housing sales area increasing by 39.87% month-on-month and sales amount rising by 44.07% [7] - The price of new residential properties in first-tier cities saw a slight decrease of 0.3%, indicating a narrowing decline compared to previous months [7] - The second-hand housing market is gaining traction, with an increasing proportion of transactions occurring in this segment, as buyers often turn to second-hand homes to meet their housing needs [8]