Core Viewpoints - 2026 is expected to be a "bottoming year" for the real estate market, with new residential sales likely to see further adjustments, although the decline may be less severe than in 2025. Prices are expected to show an "L-shaped" tail effect, with core areas in first-tier cities possibly seeing a month-on-month increase in the first half of 2026, while weaker third and fourth-tier cities are unlikely to stop declining throughout the year [3][4][5] Macro: Credit Bottoming and Fiscal Support - The drag of real estate on GDP is projected to decrease from 1.5-2 percentage points in 2025 to 0.5-1 percentage points, indicating a consensus expectation of "diminishing macro headwinds" [4] - The fiscal policy for 2026 includes an early allocation of 1.5 trillion yuan in special bonds, with 300 billion yuan specifically for acquiring existing residential properties for affordable housing, providing a safeguard for 250-300 million square meters of inventory [6][7] Financial: From "Leverage Dividend" to "Asset Dividend" - The financing landscape shows a peak in credit bond maturities in Q3 2025, with a gap of 25 billion yuan for private real estate companies needing to refinance. By 2026, the maturity volume is expected to decrease by 18%, and 21 distressed companies are projected to complete debt restructuring, alleviating the "default pulse" in the industry [8] - The REITs market is anticipated to expand by 150-200 billion yuan in 2026, with projects yielding cash flows above 5% expected to achieve valuations of 15-20 times, compared to traditional development businesses at 3-5 times PE [8] Residential Real Estate: Structural Race for Inventory Depletion - The estimated new residential sales area for 2026 is projected to be 85-86 million square meters, corresponding to a sales amount of 8.6 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4-6%, but the narrowing decline suggests a potential end to the "volume-price double kill" phase [9] - In first-tier and strong second-tier cities, inventory depletion is expected to take 14-18 months, with a potential slight price increase of within 5% for desirable properties in main urban areas [10] - In weaker second-tier and third-fourth tier cities, inventory is expected to exceed 30 months, with prices continuing to decline by 3-8% [11] Commercial Real Estate: "Threefold Evolution" - The industry is undergoing a transformation from scale worship to refined operations and risk hedging, with 2026 serving as a critical testing period for this framework [12] - The ability to revitalize assets is exemplified by Wanda's management of the Beijing Blue Harbor, which improved rental income by 5% and reduced vacancy rates to 5% through operational adjustments [12] - The introduction of public REITs tax incentives and technological advancements will determine which companies can upgrade commercial real estate into urban service infrastructure [12] Corporate Strategies: From "Three Highs" to "Three Light" - The light asset model, including construction agency, asset management, and property management, is expected to maintain a growth rate of 15-20% in 2026, with net profit margins of 8-12%, significantly higher than the 3-4% profit margin of development businesses [13] - Major state-owned enterprises aim for a net debt ratio below 50% by 2026, while private distressed companies are expected to reduce their net debt ratios to 80-100% [13] - The "sales-driven investment" approach will become a hard constraint, with a land sales ratio of 0.2-0.5, compelling real estate companies to convert land reserves into sellable resources [13] Policy Outlook: From "Market Rescue" to "Reform" - The real estate policy for 2026 will feature a dual track of "short-term stability and long-term reform," with measures including marginal relaxation of purchase restrictions in core areas and a 30 basis point reduction in mortgage rates [14][15] - Structural reforms such as the national trading of land indicators and the introduction of housing pension schemes are expected to be implemented in 2026, providing a foundational framework for new real estate models during the 14th Five-Year Plan [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of the Chinese real estate market and highlights Beike's third-quarter performance, indicating a shift towards high-quality development and the emergence of new growth avenues for the company [3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3, Beike's total transaction value (GTV) reached 736.7 billion RMB, with net income growing by 2.1% year-on-year to 23.1 billion RMB and net profit at 747 million RMB [3][4]. - Beike's existing business in the resale housing sector saw a GTV increase of 5.8% year-on-year, while new housing business GTV grew approximately 11% in the first three quarters, reaching 196.3 billion RMB in Q3 [5][6]. Group 2: Business Innovations - Beike has implemented a "tenant separation" mechanism in Shanghai, dividing agents into two categories: those focusing on property sourcing and those on client sourcing, enhancing efficiency and property turnover rates [6][7]. - The company is testing a "B+" product model for new housing, aiming for lower operational costs and broader market penetration, with plans to expand to over 30 cities by year-end [6][7]. Group 3: Diversification and New Growth Areas - Beike's new business segments, including home decoration and rental services, accounted for 45% of total revenue, marking a historical high and indicating a successful second growth curve [3][8]. - Home decoration services generated 4.3 billion RMB in net income with a profit margin of 32%, while rental services reached 5.7 billion RMB in revenue, growing by 45.3% year-on-year [9][10]. Group 4: Share Buyback and Financial Strategy - Beike initiated a significant share buyback, spending 281 million USD in Q3, the highest in nearly two years, with a total of approximately 675 million USD spent this year, representing a 15.7% increase from the previous year [12][13]. - The company maintains a cash balance of around 70 billion RMB, providing a buffer against market fluctuations and supporting ongoing buyback initiatives [13][14]. Group 5: Operational Efficiency and R&D Investment - Beike's operational expenses decreased by 1.8% year-on-year to 4.3 billion RMB, while R&D investment reached 648 million RMB, marking a 13.2% increase [14]. - The company is leveraging technology to enhance efficiency, with AI tools significantly contributing to transaction volumes and agent performance [14].

Core Insights - Beike reported a total transaction volume (GTV) of 736.7 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with net revenue reaching 23.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.1% [1][2] - The company's non-real estate transaction revenue proportion increased to 45%, indicating a healthy development of its platform ecosystem [1] - Beike's net income and adjusted net profit exceeded consensus expectations, showcasing strong financial performance [1] Group 1: Real Estate Transactions - The existing home business GTV increased by 5.8% year-on-year, with a rising share of non-Lianjia existing home transactions [1] - New home business GTV grew approximately 11% year-on-year, reaching 196.3 billion yuan in Q3 [1] - Beike is piloting a "B+" product light operation model to expand its reach into lower-tier cities, aiming for future growth [1] Group 2: Home Decoration and Rental Services - The home decoration and furnishing business generated net revenue of 4.3 billion yuan, with a profit margin increase to 32%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The rental service revenue reached 5.7 billion yuan in Q3, marking a year-on-year growth of 45.3% [2] - The rental business achieved a profit margin of 8.7% in Q3, up 4.3 percentage points year-on-year, following a break-even point in the previous quarter [2] Group 3: Strategic Transformation - The company is exploring new real estate models in the current market cycle, achieving stable operational results through diversified business layouts [2]

Core Insights - Beike's Q3 net revenue increased by 2.1% to 23.1 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] - The total transaction volume (GTV) reached 736.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8% in the existing home business [1] - The company's non-real estate transaction revenue share rose to 45%, indicating a healthy development of the platform ecosystem [1] Financial Performance - Q3 net income was 23.1 billion yuan, surpassing Bloomberg's forecast of 22.96 billion yuan by approximately 140 million yuan [1] - Adjusted net profit also exceeded expectations, reaching 1.225 billion yuan, exceeding the forecast by about 61 million yuan [1] - Home decoration and rental businesses achieved profitability at the city level, contributing to overall financial stability [1][2] Business Segments - Home decoration and furniture business generated 4.3 billion yuan in net income, with a profit margin increase to 32%, up by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Rental services revenue reached 5.7 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 45.3%, with a profit margin of 8.7%, up by 4.3 percentage points [2] - The new home business GTV grew by approximately 11% year-on-year, reaching 196.3 billion yuan in Q3 [1][2] Strategic Initiatives - Beike is piloting a "B+" product light operation model to expand its reach into lower-tier cities, aiming for future growth [1] - The company is exploring new real estate models in response to changing market cycles, achieving steady operational results through diversified business layouts [2]

Core Insights - Beike (NYSE: BEKE; HKEX: 2423) reported a total transaction volume (GTV) of 736.7 billion RMB and net revenue of 23.1 billion RMB for Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.1% in net revenue, indicating stable overall business performance [1] - The share of net revenue from Beike's "non-real estate transaction business" increased to 45%, with both home decoration and rental services achieving profitability at the city level before allocating headquarters expenses [1] - Beike's Q3 financial metrics, including net revenue and adjusted net profit, exceeded consensus expectations according to Bloomberg data [1] Real Estate Transaction Sector - In the real estate transaction sector, the GTV for existing homes increased by 5.8% year-on-year, with the proportion of non-Lianjia existing home transactions rising, demonstrating healthy platform ecosystem development [1] - The new home business saw a GTV growth of approximately 11% year-on-year, reaching 196.3 billion RMB in Q3 [1] - Beike is piloting a "B+" product light operation model to further penetrate lower-tier cities, expanding future growth opportunities [1] Home Decoration and Rental Services - The home decoration and furnishing business generated net revenue of 4.3 billion RMB, with profit margin increasing to 32%, up by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The rental service revenue reached 5.7 billion RMB in Q3, marking a year-on-year growth of 45.3%, with a profit margin of 8.7%, up by 4.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company achieved city-level profitability in the rental business for the second consecutive quarter, driven by scale growth and operational efficiency improvements, including a reduction in operational labor cost ratio [2] Strategic Transformation - The industry is accelerating the exploration of new real estate models in the new market cycle, with Beike achieving stable operational results through diversified business layouts and strategic transformation [2]

Group 1 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need to eliminate unreasonable restrictions on housing consumption, which may lead to the lifting of purchase restrictions in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai [2][3] - The plan includes measures to activate underutilized land, idle properties, and existing infrastructure to promote efficient land use [2] - It aims to drive high-quality development in the real estate sector by establishing a new development model and improving basic systems [2] - The plan focuses on optimizing the supply of affordable housing to meet the basic needs of urban workers and various disadvantaged families, with a strategy tailored to local conditions [2] - There is an emphasis on enhancing risk prevention and resolution capabilities in key areas, including real estate, local government debt, and small financial institutions, to prevent systemic risks [2] Group 2 - The plan encourages the efficient use of rural collective construction land and the activation of idle land and properties to support rural development [3] - It highlights the importance of Shanghai as an international financial center, with ongoing efforts to establish multiple centers including economic, financial, trade, shipping, and technological innovation [3] - The document underscores the significance of urban renewal initiatives, such as the ongoing village renovation projects in Shanghai, indicating continued investment in urban development [3] - The real estate sector remains a crucial pillar of the national economy, shifting from rapid growth to new models while maintaining public demand for prime locations and quality housing [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and services sectors [8]. Core Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development in real estate, transitioning from quantity to quality, with a focus on improving housing quality and supply systems [2][4][6]. - The report suggests that product capability will be a core competitive advantage for real estate companies, reshaping market positions and competitive dynamics [2][6]. Summary by Sections Institutional Improvement - The government aims to enhance the foundational systems related to commercial housing throughout its lifecycle, focusing on development, financing, and sales regulations [3]. - A new safety management system for the entire lifecycle of housing is expected to be established, enhancing property quality and long-term value [3]. Supply System Enhancement - The focus of affordable housing supply will shift from merely increasing quantity to improving quality, with an emphasis on meeting the needs for improved housing [4]. - The report highlights the importance of tailored policies for different cities to address housing needs effectively [4]. Housing Quality Improvement - The concept of "good housing" is defined by five dimensions: standards, design, materials, construction, and maintenance, which will guide the market towards companies with strong product capabilities [5]. - The implementation of a safety management system and enhanced property service quality is anticipated to elevate service standards in the industry [5]. Long-term Policy Empowerment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to empower the long-term development of the industry, providing room for valuation recovery as the standard for "good housing" becomes more prominent [6]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong credit, good cities, and quality products, highlighting specific stocks for investment [6][10]. Recommended Stocks - The report lists several stocks with "Buy" ratings, including: - Greentown China (3900 HK) with a target price of 13.69 HKD - Yuexiu Property (123 HK) with a target price of 7.06 HKD - China Overseas Development (688 HK) with a target price of 19.08 HKD - China Resources Land (1109 HK) with a target price of 36.45 HKD - New World Development (16 HK) with a target price of 111.51 HKD [10][12].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is undergoing a significant transformation, moving from reliance on policy stimulus to a more self-sustaining recovery, with a shift in focus towards new housing models and economic stability rather than aggressive growth [1][4][10]. Group 1: Policy and Economic Context - No new major loosening policies for the real estate market were introduced in September and October, with the five-year LPR remaining unchanged at 3.5% for five consecutive months [1]. - Banks are reluctant to lower LPR due to pressure from declining net interest margins, which fell to 1.42% in Q2, below the 1.8% warning line [2]. - Economic recovery provides confidence to policymakers, with GDP growth targets set around 5%, showing a gradual decline from 5.4% in Q1 to 4.8% in Q3, indicating stability without the need for aggressive interest rate cuts [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The perception of the real estate market has shifted from "stopping the decline" to "stabilizing," reflecting a fundamental change in policy thinking as the most dangerous phase has passed [6]. - The worst moments for the real estate sector appear to be over, with improvements in project delivery and a reduction in corporate defaults, although prices continue to decline [6]. - The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan will focus on a "new model" for real estate, emphasizing rental housing, affordable housing, and commercial housing to meet diverse housing needs [8]. Group 3: Long-term Industry Dynamics - Real estate remains a pillar industry but is no longer the primary driver of economic growth; instead, it serves as a stabilizing force [10]. - Over the long term, as the economy recovers and household incomes rise, property prices in many cities are expected to gradually increase, leading to a healthier industry structure [10]. - The current state of the real estate market is characterized by "weak recovery and strong differentiation," with the need for foundational reforms and time to solidify price stability [12].

Core Insights - The company focuses on providing tailored rental services for specific groups, such as business teams, healthcare professionals, and students preparing for exams, thereby avoiding traditional rental market competition [1][3] - The rental model emphasizes cost-effectiveness by utilizing underperforming properties and offering competitive pricing, with daily rental rates approximately two-thirds of traditional hotel or apartment offerings [1][2] - The company enhances customer experience by providing additional services at low or no cost, fostering customer loyalty and reducing vacancy rates [2][3] Business Model - The company collaborates with local government agencies to cater to the needs of incoming businesses and professionals, offering flexible rental terms from one month to over six months [1] - It provides specialized services such as meeting rooms, transportation, and training facilities, which are not typically available in traditional rental products [1][2] - The strategy includes emotional engagement with clients, such as offering low-cost accommodations for visiting family members of students, which helps build a supportive community [2] Market Impact - The rental model contributes to revitalizing vacant properties, providing cash flow to property owners, and preventing price declines in the housing market [3] - It supports urban investment attraction by enhancing the service and business environment, creating a positive impression during the initial investigation phase for potential investors [3] - The approach increases the city's appeal to talent and population, particularly benefiting students under financial pressure by providing a supportive living environment [3][4] Future Outlook - The company’s model suggests a new approach to stabilize the housing market by focusing on diverse community needs and adapting to changing demographics [4] - Long-term policy considerations should align housing prices with affordability, integrating living products and services to enhance overall housing consumption potential [4]

Core Insights - The company focuses on providing specialized long-term rental services tailored to specific groups, such as business teams, healthcare professionals, and students preparing for exams, thereby avoiding traditional rental market competition [1][3] - The rental model emphasizes cost-effectiveness by utilizing underperforming properties and offering competitive pricing, with daily rental rates approximately two-thirds of traditional hotel or apartment offerings [1][2] - The company enhances customer experience by providing free or low-cost additional services, fostering customer loyalty and reducing vacancy rates [2][3] Group 1: Business Model - The company collaborates with local government agencies to offer tailored rental solutions for businesses and educational institutions, creating a niche market [1][3] - By targeting rental-sensitive groups, the company ensures a steady demand for its services, which is crucial for maintaining occupancy rates [1][2] - The strategy includes providing essential services such as meeting rooms and training facilities, which traditional rental products do not adequately address [1][2] Group 2: Community Impact - The rental model contributes to revitalizing vacant properties, providing cash flow to property owners and stabilizing local real estate markets [3][4] - The approach enhances the city's attractiveness for talent and investment by improving the overall service and living environment for newcomers [3][4] - The company’s focus on emotional support and community engagement helps create a welcoming atmosphere for students and professionals, potentially increasing retention rates in the city [3][4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company’s innovative rental model is seen as a potential solution for stabilizing the housing market by addressing the needs of various demographic groups [4] - Long-term policy considerations should focus on aligning housing prices with income levels and integrating services to enhance living conditions [4] - The model represents a shift towards a more sustainable and inclusive approach to real estate, which could strengthen housing consumption in the future [4]