Workflow
政府债净融资
icon
Search documents
流动性和机构行为周度观察:MLF加量续作,资金价格下行-20250428
Changjiang Securities· 2025-04-28 05:43
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints From April 21 to April 25, 2025, the central bank net - injected funds, and the capital interest rates generally declined; the net financing scale of government bonds decreased; the net financing scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased, and the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit slightly increased; the leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market remained stable at a relatively low level, and the net lending scale of state - owned large - scale banks and policy banks slightly increased. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the net financing of government bonds is expected to be 12.11 billion yuan [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Funds - **Central Bank Net Investment**: From April 21 to April 25, 2025, the central bank's reverse repurchase investment was 88.2 billion yuan, and the repurchase was 80.8 billion yuan. The treasury fixed - deposit investment was 10 billion yuan, and the 1 - year medium - term lending facility (MLF) investment was 60 billion yuan, with a total net investment of 77.4 billion yuan. From April 28 to April 30, 2025, 50.45 billion yuan of open - market reverse repurchases will expire [6]. - **Capital Interest Rates**: From April 21 to April 25, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 decreased by 2.0 basis points compared with April 14 - April 18, 2025; the average values of DR007 and R007 decreased by 1.8 basis points and 1.2 basis points respectively. On April 25, with the 60 - billion - yuan MLF investment, the overnight capital interest rates DR001 and R001 both dropped below 1.60% [7]. - **Government Bond Net Financing**: From April 21 to April 27, 2025, the net repayment of government bonds was about 8.01 billion yuan, 87.8 billion yuan more than that from April 14 to April 20, 2025. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the net financing of government bonds is expected to be about 12.11 billion yuan [8]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Maturity Yields**: As of April 25, 2025, the maturity yields of 1M and 1Y inter - bank certificates of deposit increased by 1 basis point compared with April 18, 2025, while the 3M yield was basically flat [9]. - **Net Financing**: From April 21 to April 27, 2025, the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit was about 18.76 billion yuan, compared with a net repayment of about 0.42 billion yuan from April 14 to April 20, 2025. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the maturity repayment amount of inter - bank certificates of deposit is expected to be 33.53 billion yuan, lower than this week's 79.06 billion yuan [9]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio**: From April 21 to April 25, 2025, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.19%, basically the same as that from April 14 to April 18, 2025 [10]. - **Net Lending Scale**: On April 25, 2025, the net lending funds of state - owned large - scale banks and policy banks were about 2.93 trillion yuan, accounting for 53.3% of the total net lending. On April 18, 2025, the net lending scale was about 2.88 trillion yuan, accounting for 52.4% [10].