Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chairman has officially begun, reflecting uncertainties in U.S. governance and its potential impact on global capital flows and economic policies [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Role and Independence - The Federal Reserve's benchmark status in the global central banking system is attributed to its relative independence, which is now being challenged by political pressures [2][4]. - Recent years have seen the Fed adopt unconventional monetary policies, including significant money supply increases and low interest rates, which have been perceived as aligned with White House economic policies [2][4]. Group 2: Political Influence on Monetary Policy - The current political landscape has led to a conflict between the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes to combat inflation and the White House's desire for a more compliant Fed Chair to stimulate economic growth ahead of midterm elections [2][3]. - Historical precedents exist where political pressures have directly influenced monetary policy, with the current situation being more overt and direct than in the past [3]. Group 3: Implications for Global Markets - The uncertainty surrounding the Fed Chair selection has implications beyond the U.S., affecting global markets through the dollar's dominance and U.S. Treasury yields [4]. - A potential departure of Chair Powell could lead to significant market reactions, including a sell-off of the dollar and U.S. bonds, particularly if policy adjustments are driven by political needs rather than economic fundamentals [4]. Group 4: Economic and Political Challenges - The U.S. economy faces challenges such as high debt, slow growth, and persistent inflation, complicating the effectiveness of traditional economic stimulus measures [4]. - Political polarization and short-term electoral considerations hinder the ability to formulate long-term economic policies, increasing the challenges to the Fed's independence [4].

Tax Policy - The "Big and Beautiful" Act permanently extends and upgrades the tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, including new personal and corporate tax reductions and an increase in the deduction limit for state and local taxes [1][3] - The corporate tax rate is permanently reduced from 35% to 21%, significantly alleviating the tax burden on businesses [1] Healthcare Impact - The Act significantly cuts the Medicaid program, with an estimated 11.8 million Americans expected to lose Medicaid coverage over the next decade, resulting in a projected savings of approximately $700 billion [3][6] Defense Spending - The Act increases defense spending, adding funds for shipbuilding, ammunition production, and missile defense systems, amidst an already existing $1 trillion defense budget [3][4] Energy Policy - The Act reduces subsidies for clean energy while supporting traditional energy industries, aiming to revitalize coal and oil sectors [3][4] Economic Implications - The Act is expected to increase the U.S. deficit by approximately $3.3 trillion over the next decade, potentially leading to higher interest payments and constraining public investment in infrastructure, education, and research [6] - While businesses may benefit from short-term tax cuts, rising government debt could lead to increased market interest rates, raising financing costs for companies in the long run [6] Social Impact - The implementation of the Act may exacerbate social inequality, with cuts to Medicaid and food assistance programs adversely affecting low-income and disabled populations, potentially leading to increased social unrest [6] International Effects - The Act's fiscal policy adjustments may impact global economic dynamics, potentially diminishing the attractiveness of U.S. Treasury securities and causing capital outflows from the U.S., which could lead to volatility in global financial markets [7] - Increased defense spending may heighten regional military tensions and affect the strategic balance among major powers, influencing global geopolitical dynamics [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee expresses confusion over the rationale for lowering interest rates to make government debt cheaper, emphasizing that the Fed's responsibilities lie in employment and price stability [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Federal Reserve's Responsibilities** - The primary duties of the Federal Reserve include managing employment levels and controlling inflation [1] - **Interest Rates and Government Debt** - There is a lack of clarity regarding the need to reduce interest rates for the purpose of making government debt more affordable [1] - **Current Economic Conditions** - The Federal Reserve is facing potential disruptions and ambiguities that need to be addressed [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the "Beautiful Act" and its implications on the U.S. economy and fiscal policy Core Points and Arguments - The "Beautiful Act" is expected to lead to a deficit expansion of approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade due to extended tax cuts and new income provisions, totaling around $400 billion [1][2] - The corporate tax rate remains unchanged at 21%, but accounting standards have been upgraded, which is projected to impact the deficit by about $1 trillion over the next ten years [1][5] - The debt ceiling has been raised from $36 trillion to $41 trillion to maintain government cash flow, resulting in an estimated total deficit expansion of about $3.25 trillion over the next decade [1][4][6] - To offset the costs of tax cuts, the act includes spending cuts in areas such as Medicaid, ObamaCare, food stamp benefits, and student loans, while also eliminating funding for clean energy initiatives [1][4] - Economic forecasts suggest that the act's impact on GDP growth will be weaker than the comprehensive tax cuts of 2017, with a neutral prediction of an average GDP growth increase of 0.5 percentage points over the next decade [1][4] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The act is expected to create a long-term trend of increasing deficits, with significant negative effects on economic performance, particularly in 2025 due to fiscal tightening and tariff increases [3][6] - The impact of the tax cuts varies significantly across income levels, with low-income groups benefiting less compared to wealthier individuals, and potential negative effects from cuts to Medicaid and food assistance programs [7] - There are concerns about the long-term fiscal stability due to the potential for new legislation from future presidents that could exacerbate fiscal expansion risks, making it harder to implement strict fiscal tightening measures [8][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - The report is a fixed - income weekly report, presenting basic data such as the China Bond Composite Index (254.4), the China Bond Long/Medium - Short - Term Index (245.4/209.1), the 10 - year inter - bank Treasury bond yield (1.65), and the scale of enterprise/company/convertible bonds (70.9/23.7/6.7 trillion) [4] Summary by Related Content Government Bond Net Financing - Government bond net financing was 221.6 billion yuan in the 27th week (6/30 - 7/6) and 303.2 billion yuan in the 28th week (7/7 - 7/13). As of the 27th week, the cumulative amount was 7.9 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 4.4 trillion yuan, mainly due to the misalignment of special bonds for replacing hidden debts and the rapid issuance of Treasury bonds [1][7] Treasury Bond and Local Bond - The sum of Treasury bond net financing and new local bond issuance was 257.4 billion yuan in the 27th week and 271.4 billion yuan in the 28th week. As of the 27th week, the cumulative generalized deficit was 6.2 trillion yuan, with a progress of 52.2% [1][7] - Treasury bond net financing was 199.9 billion yuan in the 27th week and 192.9 billion yuan in the 28th week. As of the 27th week, the cumulative amount was 3.6 trillion yuan, with a progress of 53.8%, exceeding the average of the past five years. The total annual Treasury bond net financing is 6.66 trillion yuan, including a central deficit of 4.86 trillion yuan and special Treasury bonds of 1.8 trillion yuan in 2025 [8] - Local bond net financing was 21.6 billion yuan in the 27th week and 110.2 billion yuan in the 28th week. As of the 27th week, the cumulative amount was 4.4 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2.6 trillion yuan [10] New General Bond and New Special Bond - New general bond issuance was 6.6 billion yuan in the 27th week and 14.5 billion yuan in the 28th week. As of the 27th week, the cumulative amount was 452 billion yuan, with a progress of 56.5%, exceeding last year's level. The local deficit in 2025 is 80 billion yuan [10][14] - New special bond issuance was 50.8 billion yuan in the 27th week and 64 billion yuan in the 28th week. As of the 27th week, the cumulative amount was 2.2 trillion yuan, with a progress of 49.2%, exceeding last year's level. The planned new special bond issuance in 2025 is 4.4 trillion yuan [14] Special New Special Bond and Land Reserve Special Bond - Special new special bonds of 585.1 billion yuan have been issued, of which 120.3 billion yuan was issued in July, accounting for 72% of new special bonds. The 800 - billion - yuan quota may be issued by the third quarter [2][14] - Land reserve special bonds of 192.5 billion yuan have been issued. As of July 6, the disclosed projects for acquiring idle land covered 4,343 parcels, with a capital scale of 489.7 billion yuan [2][14] Special Refinancing Bond and Urban Investment Bond - Special refinancing bond issuance was 0 billion yuan in the 27th week and 28.6 billion yuan in the 28th week. As of the 27th week, the cumulative amount was 1.8 trillion yuan, with a progress of 91% [2][23] - Urban investment bond net financing was - 20.3 billion yuan in the 27th week and is expected to be - 15.8 billion yuan in the 28th week. The balance of urban investment bonds as of this week is about 10.3 trillion yuan [2][24][28]

Group 1: Core Aspects of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" is considered the most significant economic legislation during Trump's presidency, extending tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) that were set to expire in 2025 [2][4] - The act primarily continues existing tax policies rather than introducing new substantial tax cuts, preventing a significant increase in personal income tax rates post-2025 [2][4] - The Republican Party traditionally advocates for tax cuts to stimulate economic growth, create jobs, and increase national income, based on the belief that lower taxes enhance corporate profitability and investment [2][4] Group 2: Fiscal Deficit and Government Debt Implications - The act is projected to add $3 trillion to $4 trillion in additional fiscal deficits over the next decade, exacerbating the already high government debt, which is expected to reach nearly $36 trillion by 2024 [6][10] - The U.S. federal government's fiscal deficit is anticipated to reach 6.6% of GDP in 2024, marking a historical high, with debt interest payments surpassing defense spending [6][9] - Economic studies suggest that the growth effects from tax cuts may not sufficiently offset the revenue losses, with estimates indicating that only about one-third of the revenue loss from tax cuts can be compensated through economic growth [5][6] Group 3: Income and Wealth Distribution Effects - The act is expected to provide $1 trillion in tax benefits to the wealthiest 1% of Americans over the next decade, while low-income individuals may suffer from reduced healthcare and government benefits [11][13] - This disparity in benefits is likely to exacerbate income and wealth inequality in the U.S., posing challenges to the political system [11][13] Group 4: Indirect Effects on China - In the short term, the act may benefit the Chinese economy by increasing U.S. demand for Chinese products as trade tensions ease, aiding China's transition from external to internal demand [14] - The act's cancellation of subsidies for renewable energy sectors may slow the development of the U.S. renewable energy industry, but its direct impact on China's electric vehicle sector is expected to be limited [14] Group 5: Broader Economic and Political Implications - The act introduces significant uncertainty regarding the sustainability of U.S. federal finances, with long-term economic growth effects remaining unclear [10][18] - The political dynamics surrounding the act's implementation and its impact on Trump's influence and authority are uncertain, as they will evolve with the economic and electoral landscape [17][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Government bond net financing was 671.4 billion yuan in the 26th week (6/23 - 6/29) and 221.6 billion yuan in the 27th week (6/30 - 7/6). As of the 26th week, the cumulative amount was 7.7 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 4.3 trillion yuan, mainly due to the misalignment of special bonds for replacing implicit debts and the rapid issuance of treasury bonds [1][7]. - The net financing of treasury bonds plus the issuance of new local bonds was 590.5 billion yuan in the 26th week and 257.4 billion yuan in the 27th week. As of the 26th week, the cumulative general deficit was 5.9 trillion yuan, with a progress of 50.1% [1][7]. - Treasury bond net financing was 111 billion yuan in the 26th week and 199.9 billion yuan in the 27th week. As of the 26th week, the cumulative amount was 3.4 trillion yuan, with a progress of 50.8% [1][8]. - Local bond net financing was 560.4 billion yuan in the 26th week and 2.16 billion yuan in the 27th week. As of the 26th week, the cumulative amount was 4.4 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2.5 trillion yuan [1][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Government Bond Net Financing - 26th week (6/23 - 6/29): 671.4 billion yuan; 27th week (6/30 - 7/6): 221.6 billion yuan. As of the 26th week, cumulative 7.7 trillion yuan, exceeding last year's same - period by 4.3 trillion yuan [1][7]. Treasury Bond Net Financing - 26th week (6/23 - 6/29): 111 billion yuan; 27th week (6/30 - 7/6): 199.9 billion yuan. As of the 26th week, cumulative 3.4 trillion yuan, progress 50.8%, exceeding the average of the past five years' same - period [1][8]. Local Bond Net Financing - 26th week (6/23 - 6/29): 560.4 billion yuan; 27th week (6/30 - 7/6): 2.16 billion yuan. As of the 26th week, cumulative 4.4 trillion yuan, exceeding last year's same - period by 2.5 trillion yuan [1][10]. New General Bond - 26th week (6/23 - 6/29): 5.72 billion yuan; 27th week (6/30 - 7/6): 0.66 billion yuan. As of the 26th week, cumulative 445.4 billion yuan, progress 55.7%, exceeding last year's same - period [2][10]. New Special Bond - 26th week (6/23 - 6/29): 422.3 billion yuan; 27th week (6/30 - 7/6): 50.8 billion yuan. As of the 26th week, cumulative 2.1 trillion yuan, progress 48.0%, exceeding last year's same - period. Special new special bonds issued 510.6 billion yuan, land reserve special bonds issued 192.5 billion yuan. The third - quarter issuance plan is 2.7 trillion yuan, including 1.5 trillion yuan of new special bonds and 222.7 billion yuan of new general bonds. The planned issuance of new special bonds decreases monthly, about 69 billion yuan in July [2][14]. Special Refinancing Bond - 26th week (6/23 - 6/29): 5.97 billion yuan; 27th week (6/30 - 7/6): 0 billion yuan. As of the 26th week, cumulative 1.8 trillion yuan, issuance progress 90% [2][25]. Urban Investment Bond - 26th week (6/23 - 6/29): net financing - 1.47 billion yuan; 27th week (6/30 - 7/6): expected - 2.7 billion yuan. As of this week, the balance is about 10.4 trillion yuan [2][26][29].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Government bond net financing in the 26th week (6/23 - 6/29) was 67.14 billion yuan, and in the 27th week (6/30 - 7/6) it was 22.16 billion yuan. As of the 26th week, the cumulative amount was 7.7 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 4.3 trillion yuan, mainly due to the misalignment of special bonds for replacing hidden debts and the rapid issuance of treasury bonds [1][7]. - The net financing of treasury bonds plus the issuance of new local bonds in the 26th week was 59.05 billion yuan, and in the 27th week it was 25.74 billion yuan. As of the 26th week, the cumulative general deficit was 5.9 trillion yuan, with a progress of 50.1% [1][7]. - Treasury bond net financing in the 26th week was 11.1 billion yuan, and in the 27th week it was 19.99 billion yuan. As of the 26th week, the cumulative amount was 3.4 trillion yuan, with a progress of 50.8% [1][8]. - Local bond net financing in the 26th week was 56.04 billion yuan, and in the 27th week it was 2.16 billion yuan. As of the 26th week, the cumulative amount was 4.4 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2.5 trillion yuan [1][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Government Bond Net Financing - 26th week (6/23 - 6/29): 67.14 billion yuan; 27th week (6/30 - 7/6): 22.16 billion yuan. As of the 26th week, cumulative 7.7 trillion yuan, exceeding last year's same - period by 4.3 trillion yuan [1][7] Treasury Bond Net Financing - 26th week (6/23 - 6/29): 11.1 billion yuan; 27th week (6/30 - 7/6): 19.99 billion yuan. As of the 26th week, cumulative 3.4 trillion yuan, progress 50.8%, exceeding the average of the past five years' same - period [1][8] Local Bond Net Financing - 26th week (6/23 - 6/29): 56.04 billion yuan; 27th week (6/30 - 7/6): 2.16 billion yuan. As of the 26th week, cumulative 4.4 trillion yuan, exceeding last year's same - period by 2.5 trillion yuan [1][10] New General Bond - 26th week (6/23 - 6/29): 5.72 billion yuan; 27th week (6/30 - 7/6): 0.66 billion yuan. As of the 26th week, cumulative 445.4 billion yuan, progress 55.7%, exceeding last year's same - period [2][10] New Special Bond - 26th week (6/23 - 6/29): 42.23 billion yuan; 27th week (6/30 - 7/6): 5.08 billion yuan. As of the 26th week, cumulative 2.1 trillion yuan, progress 48.0%, exceeding last year's same - period. Special new special bonds issued 510.6 billion yuan, land reserve special bonds issued 192.5 billion yuan. The third - quarter issuance plan shows 2.7 trillion yuan, including 1.5 trillion yuan of new special bonds and 222.7 billion yuan of new general bonds. The planned issuance of new special bonds decreases monthly, about 69 billion yuan in July [2][14] Special Refinancing Bond - 26th week (6/23 - 6/29): 5.97 billion yuan; 27th week (6/30 - 7/6): 0 yuan. As of the 26th week, cumulative 1.8 trillion yuan, issuance progress 90% [2][25] Urban Investment Bond - 26th week (6/23 - 6/29): net financing - 1.47 billion yuan; 27th week (6/30 - 7/6): expected - 2.7 billion yuan. As of this week, the balance is about 10.4 trillion yuan [2][26][29]

Group 1 - HSBC has raised its 2025 average gold price forecast from $3,015 per ounce to $3,215 per ounce [1] - The bank has also increased its 2026 average price forecast from $2,915 per ounce to $3,125 per ounce [1] - The adjustments are attributed to rising risks and increasing government debt [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have seen a significant pullback after reaching a historical high of $3,500 per ounce on April 22, 2025, with geopolitical factors and central bank purchases continuing to support gold, but prices may be nearing a peak due to weakening physical demand, increased supply, and a slower-than-expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][6][12]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Total gold supply is projected to increase from 4,950 tonnes in 2023 to 5,190 tonnes in 2025, driven by mine production and old gold scrap recovery [2]. - Jewelry demand, which constitutes about half of global gold consumption, is expected to decline significantly, with a 21% year-on-year drop in Q1 2025 to 380.3 tonnes [21]. - Investment demand remains strong, with gold ETFs seeing a net increase of 7.94 million ounces in 2023, reaching 90.79 million ounces [14]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Geopolitical risks have historically supported gold prices, but the market's response may have reached saturation, as evidenced by the failure to surpass the April high following tensions with Iran [6]. - The Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts are expected to be less aggressive than previously thought, which could negatively impact gold prices [12]. - Global trade growth is projected to slow, with only a 1.8% increase expected in 2025, which typically supports gold prices [9]. Group 3: Central Bank Purchases and Future Projections - Central bank demand for gold remains robust, with purchases expected to total 955 tonnes in 2025, although this is lower than previous years [28]. - HSBC has raised its average gold price forecast for 2025 to $3,215 per ounce, with a trading range of $3,100 to $3,600 per ounce [2]. - The forecast for gold prices in 2026 is set at $3,125 per ounce, indicating a potential decline in price momentum [2].