分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-12-12 研究所 风险提示： 中美贸易摩擦超预期加剧；政策效果不及预期。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《鲜菜鲜果涨价支撑食品改善，服务 价格相对稳固》 - 2025.12.11 宏观研究 中共中央经济工作会议精神学习：符合预期，整体 定调更具针对性 核心要点 本次中央经济工作会议基本符合预期，整体定调更具针对性，各 项核心部署基本契合市场预期，政策导向的延续性与灵活性得到充分 体现。2026 年我国经济发展仍是目标导向，经济增长预期目标或应有 所下修。宏观政策"更加积极"定调不变，政策倾向于保持谨慎克制， 政策力度或基本持平去年水平。 从 8 个重点工作内容来看，（1）扩内需仍是首位工作，重点关 注服务消费突围、"两重"投资回暖。（2）国际科技创新中心引领新 动能培育和发展，新型基础设施建设是 ...

人民财讯12月10日电，中共青海省委关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议发布。其中 提出，构建高原现代化基础设施体系。加强基础设施统筹规划，优化布局结构，促进集成融合，提升安 全韧性和运营可持续性。适度超前布局新型基础设施，推进5G-A、万兆网络建设，有序部署第六代移 动通信网络，加快传统基础设施数字化、网络化、智能化改造。推进现代铁路网建设，建成西宁至成都 铁路、青藏铁路格拉段电气化改造工程，深化格成铁路等前期研究，强化骨干交通设施与"一带一路"、 西部陆海新通道的联通。织密外联内畅公路网，全面畅通"通甘达川、出疆入藏"通道，实施普通国省道 提升补短板工程，开展新一轮农村公路提升行动，推进旅游公路建设。推动高高原机场群建设，有序布 局通用机场和低空基础设施。完善以国家级综合交通枢纽为核心、区域交通节点为补充的多层级枢纽体 系。加快构建现代化高原水网，有序实施柴达木盆地水资源配置一期等工程，研究推动引黄济宁、引通 济柴工程，优化重点区域水资源配置格局，完善现代化流域防洪减灾体系，加强水库、灌区、城乡供水 等工程建设。稳步推进"平急两用"公共基础设施建设。 ...

元创股份成立于2006年6月，公司的核心业务聚焦橡胶履带细分领域，产品覆盖农用机械橡胶履带、工 程机械橡胶履带及橡胶履带板，广泛应用于农业生产与工程施工两大国民经济核心领域。 深交所最新公告显示，国内橡胶履带行业龙头企业元创科技股份有限公司(以下简称"元创股份 （001325）")于今日正式申购，申购简称为元创股份，申购代码001325。据悉，公司本次发行价格为 24.75元/股，共发行1960万股。 元创股份上市在即，不仅是企业自身资本化进程的重要里程碑，更标志着我国橡胶履带产业从"规模追 赶"向"质量引领"转型的阶段性成果即将接受资本市场检验。 作为国内橡胶履带行业市场占有率第一、深耕行业三十余年的领军企业，元创股份凭借技术突破、全球 化布局与产业链整合能力，正试图打破国际巨头在高端市场的垄断格局，为我国橡胶工业升级提供"龙 头样本"。 核心业务锚定战略赛道，以技术话语权重塑产业标准 从产业定位来看，其业务深度契合国家"乡村振兴"与"新型基础设施建设"战略方向。农业机械化是破 解"三农"问题、提升农业生产效率的关键支撑，工程机械则是推动基建投资落地、保障经济增长的核心 装备，双重战略需求为橡胶履带市场构建 ...

Core Viewpoint - The State Council's recent meeting emphasizes the strategic, forward-looking, and holistic approach to the "Two Major" construction, aiming to enhance the participation of private capital in state-dominated sectors, thereby stimulating market vitality and improving resource allocation efficiency [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Value of Private Capital Participation - The core strategic value of encouraging private capital in the "Two Major" construction lies in stimulating market vitality and enhancing resource allocation efficiency, particularly in infrastructure, public services, and emerging industries [2]. - Private capital can alleviate government financial pressure and enhance investment precision and sustainability, while also accelerating major project implementation and promoting technological upgrades [2]. Group 2: Suitable Fields for Private Capital - The most urgent and suitable areas for private capital involvement are new infrastructure projects, especially in 5G base stations, industrial internet, AI platforms, and data centers, which have significant investment gaps [3]. - New infrastructure is crucial for digital economic development and can effectively stimulate new business models and investment multiplier effects [3]. Group 3: Structural Barriers to Participation - Private capital faces structural barriers such as implicit market access barriers, financing channel constraints, and a lack of risk-sharing and return assurance mechanisms [4]. - Complex qualification reviews and lengthy approval processes hinder private capital participation in "Two Major" projects, while high financing costs and unclear risk-sharing mechanisms further deter investment [4]. Group 4: Solutions to Overcome Barriers - Recommendations include eliminating market access barriers, simplifying policy environments, and providing "one-stop" services to enhance transparency and support for private enterprises [4][5]. - Expanding financing channels and lowering costs through specialized loans and government-led funds can attract more long-term capital [5]. Group 5: Innovative Financing Tools - Innovative financing tools such as REITs, ABS, and concession models can effectively link private capital with "Two Major" projects [5][6]. - REITs can revitalize existing assets and achieve a closed funding loop, while ABS can enhance liquidity through cash flow securitization [5][6].

人民财讯12月5日电，中共山西省委关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议发布。其中 提到，完善现代化综合交通运输体系，强化薄弱地区覆盖和通达保障，推动"八纵八横"高铁通道山西段 建设，加快国家高速公路网贯通和繁忙路段扩容改造，着力推进国省道干线路网完善、能级提升，推进 县城过境改线和安全韧性提升，抓好"四好农村路"建设，完善全省民用运输机场布局和航空运输网络， 发展海铁联运。加力建设新型能源基础设施。适度超前建设新型基础设施，推进信息通信网络、重大科 技基础设施等建设和集约高效利用，推进传统基础设施更新和数智化改造。优化提升产业创新基础设 施。推进城市平急两用公共基础设施建设。 ...

Group 1 - The rapid development of digital technologies such as artificial intelligence, IoT, and cloud computing marks the arrival of a new technological revolution, with new infrastructure construction being key to supporting the growth of new technologies, industries, and business models [1] - Shantou is focusing on the strategy of "industrial city, strong industry" by establishing a solid digital economy foundation through new infrastructure, leveraging its core advantages as an international communication hub [1][2] - The China Digital Economy Innovation Development Conference held in Shantou attracted numerous participants, including government officials, industry representatives, and experts, to discuss new blueprints for digital economy development [1][2] Group 2 - China Unicom is actively participating in Shantou's digital infrastructure development, having established a regional international business entry point and is accelerating the construction of a cross-border intelligent computing center [2] - Shantou has launched Guangdong's first cross-border digital economy industrial park, focusing on sectors such as "data processing," artificial intelligence applications, and digital economy pilot bases [2] - The city is also leveraging its marine resources to develop offshore wind power, which will support the construction of green computing infrastructure [2] Group 3 - China Telecom plans to showcase its capabilities in cloud computing, big data, IoT, and cybersecurity, sharing insights on how digital technologies can empower social and economic development [3] - Inspur Group has established an AI factory in Shantou, creating a full-chain production line for AI and exploring new models for cross-border data flow [3] Group 4 - The China Digital Economy Innovation Development Conference in Shantou has further highlighted the city's digital economic resource advantages, with ongoing efforts to enhance information infrastructure such as 5G and gigabit optical networks [4] - Shantou has built 13,134 5G base stations and over 78,000 10G passive optical network ports, achieving widespread coverage in major urban areas and key industrial parks [4] - The regional international communication business entry point has been established, with international communication export bandwidth accounting for over 52% of the national total, forming a robust data interaction network [4]

（文章来源：人民日报） 前10月，我国通信业运行总体平稳，电信业务量收保持增长，新型基础设施建设有序推进，5G、千 兆、物联网等用户规模持续扩大，移动互联网接入流量保持较快增长。数据显示，前10月，电信业务收 入累计完成14670亿元，同比增长0.9%。截至10月末，5G移动电话用户达11.84亿户，比上年末净增1.7 亿户，占移动电话用户的64.7%。 本报北京12月2日电 （记者刘温馨）记者从工业和信息化部获悉：截至10月末，我国5G基站总数达 475.8万个，比上年末净增50.7万个，占移动基站总数的37%。 ...

Group 1: Policy Review for 2025 - Fiscal policy shows increased strength, with a historical high financing scale of 14.36 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.2% of GDP [1][8] - General fiscal expenditure grew by 7.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a high level of spending [11][12] - Monetary policy returned to a "moderately loose" tone, with a focus on guiding expectations and improving transmission efficiency [1][23] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Outlook for 2026 - Fiscal policy is expected to become more proactive in supporting economic growth and structural transformation, with a deficit rate maintained around 4% [2][61] - Special bonds and new special debt scales are anticipated to expand slightly compared to 2025, aiming to keep fiscal expenditure growth in line with or above nominal GDP growth [2][63] - The focus will be on investing in social welfare and new infrastructure, particularly in areas like elderly care and child welfare [2][61] Group 3: Tax and Fiscal System Reform - Fiscal reforms will address structural contradictions, focusing on macro tax burden, central-local relations, and social security systems [3][61] - The aim is to maintain a reasonable macro tax burden and regulate tax incentives to curb excessive competition among local governments [3][61] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook for 2026 - Monetary policy is likely to maintain a "moderately loose" stance, with an emphasis on liquidity support and precise policy implementation [4][6] - The social financing scale is expected to increase, with M1 growth slightly rebounding due to fiscal input [4][6] - The central bank may implement a rate cut of about 10 basis points to maintain liquidity [4][6] Group 5: Policy Coordination and Macro Governance - The central bank's operations in government bond trading reflect a flexible response to market changes, enhancing policy effectiveness [1][42] - Fiscal injections into commercial banks are aimed at stabilizing their capital adequacy ratios and facilitating monetary policy transmission [49][51] - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies is evolving, with a focus on improving the overall governance system [1][42]

Core Insights - Beijing plans to construct and operate large-scale centralized data centers with over 1 GW power capacity in low Earth orbit, aiming to integrate commercial space and artificial intelligence, thus creating a new industry chain of "reusable rockets + computing constellations + data applications" [1] Group 1 - The shift in infrastructure layout is moving from "supporting" to "leading," emphasizing that new infrastructure like space computing constellations and integrated networks should create demand rather than just respond to it [1] - The establishment of an orbital data center and a computing network that spans space and ground is intended to lay the groundwork for advancements in artificial intelligence, space computing, and integrated applications [1] - The proactive advancement of new infrastructure construction is crucial for maintaining competitive advantage globally and enhancing the resilience and upgrading of the industrial chain [1] Group 2 - A strategic mindset of "calculating the big picture, long-term benefits, and overall accounts" is essential for advancing new infrastructure projects, which typically involve large investments and long return cycles [2] - Focus should be on efficient and autonomous development, optimizing spatial layouts to avoid redundancy while fostering a coordinated computing network across space and ground [2] - Continuous exploration of applications in space computing, integrated operations, and AI is necessary to generate new industries, business models, and enhance the overall utility of the infrastructure [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of "appropriate advanced construction" of new infrastructure during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans in China, highlighting its role in supporting high-quality development and addressing structural contradictions in existing infrastructure [1][2][3]. Group 1: New Infrastructure Development - New infrastructure includes information, integration, and innovation facilities that support digital economy development and traditional infrastructure upgrades [2][3]. - The 15th Five-Year Plan explicitly mentions "appropriate advanced" construction of new infrastructure, marking a significant shift in policy direction [2][3]. - The construction of new infrastructure is seen as essential for promoting new urbanization and achieving common prosperity [3][4]. Group 2: Implementation Principles - The principle of "appropriate advanced" construction requires balancing supply and demand, current and long-term needs, and efficiency and quality [5][6]. - The government is expected to lead the investment in new infrastructure to enhance public services and address existing gaps [3][4][5]. - The focus should be on integrating traditional and new infrastructure while ensuring that development aligns with economic and social needs [5][6]. Group 3: Market Opportunities - Companies are increasingly interested in the opportunities presented by new infrastructure, particularly in areas like computing and digital solutions [7][8]. - The development of advanced computing infrastructure is seen as a key area for growth, with companies aiming to leverage this for competitive advantage [7][8]. - The construction of clean energy facilities, such as nuclear power plants, is highlighted as a critical component of new infrastructure development [8]. Group 4: Collaborative Efforts - Successful implementation of new infrastructure requires collaboration among government, society, and the market to stimulate private investment and innovation [9]. - Encouraging enterprises to take the lead in research and development is crucial for integrating new infrastructure with industry needs [9].