新华财经北京11月21日电（崔凯）日本总务省21日公布的数据显示，10月剔除生鲜食品价格后的核心消 费者物价指数（CPI）同比上涨3.0%，较9月的2.9%进一步加速，连续第35个月高于日本央行设定的2% 通胀目标。 食品价格持续走高是推动通胀上行的主要因素。作为高度依赖进口资源的经济体，日本在日元急剧贬值 背景下，进口成本显著上升，并进一步传导至国内物价，尤以食品和能源领域表现突出。总务省指出， 自2022年4月以来，该核心通胀指标始终处于或高于2%的目标水平。 这一数据进一步强化了市场对日本央行短期内推进货币政策正常化的预期。日本央行此前已多次强调， 为确保物价稳定，有必要逐步退出超宽松政策框架。 同日，在国会听证会上，日本央行行长植田和男明确表示，日元持续疲软可能进一步推高国内通胀。他 指出，由于日元贬值抬升进口成本，企业当前更倾向于同步上调工资与产品价格，从而强化了汇率波动 向物价的传导效应。植田强调，相较以往，汇率对通胀的影响正变得"更为显著"，央行必须对此保持高 度警惕。 （文章来源：新华财经） 值得注意的是，审议委员小枝淳子近日亦发表偏鹰派言论，凸显日本央行内部对通胀风险的担忧正在上 升。尽管副 ...

报告显示，10月日本对美出口额同比下降3.1%至1.75万亿日元（约157日元合1美元）。其中，拖累出口 下降的汽车、半导体制造设备及医药品三个大类的降幅分别为7.5%、49.6%和30.8%。虽然汽车出口额 降幅有所缩小，但仍然是拖累日本对美出口连续下降的最大因素。 （文章来源：新华财经） 受对美出口持续下降影响，日本连续4个月呈现贸易逆差。10月，由于日本对亚洲及欧盟出口增加，整 体出口额增长3.6%至9.7663万亿日元；进口额同比增加0.7%至9.9981万亿日元；贸易逆差达2318亿日 元。 新华财经东京11月21日电（记者刘春燕）日本财务省21日公布的贸易统计结果显示，受美国关税政策影 响，日本对美出口额自今年4月以来连续7个月同比下降。 此间媒体和专家评论说，2024年汽车及汽车零部件出口约占日本对美出口总额的三分之一，美国汽车关 税政策对日本出口的影响依然巨大。贸易逆差持续已成为日元不断贬值的重要背景。 ...

Core Insights - Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding fresh food rose by 3.0% year-on-year in October, marking the 50th consecutive month of increase, indicating a continued expansion in price levels [1] - The October CPI increase surpassed the previous month's rate of 2.9%, with a month-on-month rise of 0.4%, reflecting a broader trend of rising prices [1] - Key contributors to the price increase include higher costs for household durable goods, hotel accommodation, and automobile insurance [1] Detailed Summary - The core CPI reached 112.1 in October, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [1] - The rise in prices was driven by significant increases in specific categories: - Ordinary japonica rice prices saw a year-on-year increase of 39.6% - Chocolate and coffee bean prices rose by 36.9% and 53.4% respectively - Hotel accommodation costs increased by 8.5% year-on-year [1] - Concerns are growing among media and experts regarding the impact of active fiscal policies and loose monetary policies on the depreciation of the yen, which may further exacerbate inflation in Japan [1]

日本财 务相片山皋月出席记者会（11月21日，日本国会内） 声明提到，汇率干预"被视为应对过度波动或无序贬值/升值的同等恰当方式"。片山强调，作为一个选 项"当然可以考虑"。 关于近期日元贬值的走势，片山认为 "非常单方面且急剧，这让人感到忧虑"。她还表示："外汇汇率应 反映经济基本面，保持稳定波动，这一点很重要"。 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 日经中文网 https://cn.nikkei.com 关于近期日元贬值的走势，片山认为 "非常单方面且急剧，这让人感到忧虑"。她表示"将视情况采取适 当的应对措施"，强调汇率干预作为一个选项"当然可以考虑"…… 日本财务相片山皋月在11月21日内阁会议后的记者会上就日元持续贬值的现状表示，针对外汇市场出现 的过度波动及无序走势"根据9月发布的日美财长联合声明的思路，将视情况采取适当的应对措施"。 ...

但片山皋月后来告诉记者，双方没有就汇率问题进行具体讨论。 她的言论让投资者对日本政府和日本央行干预汇市的担忧有所缓解。纽约市场的日元抛售继续加剧，令 日元汇率跌至10个月低点，报157日元区间。 新华财经北京11月20日电据日媒周四（20日）晚间报道，日本财务省和日本央行一致同意，在日元贬值 和利率上升的情况下，两家机构将对金融市场的发展保持警惕。 该媒体称，日本财务省大臣片山皋月和日本央行行长植田和男周三举行会谈，讨论经济和货币政策。负 责成长战略的大臣城内实也出席了会议。 双方重申，政府和央行将密切配合，实施政策，实现持续稳定的物价上涨和经济增长。他们还同意有必 要与金融市场谨慎沟通。 抛售日元的另一个原因是，人们一直担心高市政府出台的新经济措施可能会扩大债务规模，导致财政状 况恶化。 此外，市场消息人士称，对美联储将不会在12月会议上实施降息的猜测，也促使投资者抛售日元，买入 美元。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

日本三季度实际GDP环比下降0.4%，按年率计算下降1.8%，终结连续六个季度扩张，呈现内需外需双弱格局。私人消 费仅微增0.1%，民间住宅投资环比暴跌9.4%，美国关税政策导致出口环比下降1.2%，叠加中日关系恶化冲击旅游消费 与在华企业业务，经济基本面难以支撑日元走强。 市场对美联储近期降息的预期降温，美日利差维持在350个基点左右的高位，显著削弱日元吸引力。美国财政部长贝森 特多次暗示，加息是支撑日元的最佳途径，间接降低了日本官方汇市干预获得美国支持的可能性，进一步打开日元贬 值空间。 日本当局近期密集释放警告信号。财务大臣片山皋月承认"平衡通胀、债市与日元的难度"，内阁官房长官木原稔强调 需"密切注意汇率过度波动"，但均未使用"准备采取果断行动"等强威慑表述。市场解读为政府对日元贬值存在容忍 度，叠加内阁成员此前多次宣扬"弱日元利好出口"，口头干预未能遏制抛售势头。 汇市干预面临多重障碍。一方面，当前日元贬值由实际利率负值、财政失衡等基本面因素驱动，干预效果存疑，前日 本央行官员直言"无异于浪费外汇储备"；另一方面，需获得美国支持，而美方更倾向日本通过加息而非干预稳定汇 率，且高市政府干预意愿低于往届 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) must continue to normalize its monetary policy by raising real interest rates to avoid unexpected market distortions, as stated by BOJ member Junko Koeda [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - Junko Koeda indicated that if BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda proposes a rate hike in the coming months, she would support it, emphasizing the need for policy rate adjustments based on economic activity and price improvements [1]. - The BOJ has maintained its policy rate at 0.5% despite core consumer inflation exceeding the 2% target for over three years, highlighting a cautious approach to interest rate changes [1]. - A survey revealed that 53% of economists expect the BOJ to raise the short-term interest rate from 0.50% to 0.75% in the upcoming December meeting, with a median forecast of 1.00% by the end of 2026 [3]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Inflation - Koeda noted that corporate profits remain high, the economy shows resilience, and recent food price increases may affect inflation expectations [1]. - The Japanese yen has depreciated significantly, leading to concerns about imported inflation and price pressures, prompting expectations of early rate hikes by the BOJ [4]. - Economists believe that if wage growth momentum is confirmed and aligns with government coordination, the likelihood of a December rate hike is very high [4]. Group 3: Labor Market and Wage Growth - Koeda is monitoring Japan's minimum wage standards and the impact of increased employment mobility on wages, indicating that wage negotiations will be crucial for achieving inflation targets [2]. - A majority of economists (81%) expect that wage increases in the upcoming year will not exceed the previous year's 5.25%, suggesting a potential slowdown in wage growth [4]. - Despite a slight expected decline in overall corporate profits, strong corporate earnings are anticipated to support high wage growth rates through 2026 [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the challenges faced by Japan's Prime Minister, Kishi Sanae, in balancing aggressive fiscal policies with a loose monetary environment, which may exacerbate inflation risks due to the continuous depreciation of the yen since her election [2][4] - Kishi has expressed concerns about the current inflation being cost-push and has shown caution towards hasty interest rate hikes, indicating a respect for the independence of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) [4][6] - The upcoming cabinet meeting on November 21 is expected to finalize Kishi's first comprehensive economic measures, focusing on expanding support for food purchases and local delivery funds [4][6] Group 2 - The depreciation of the yen has been significant, with the exchange rate moving from 147 yen per dollar before Kishi's election to around 155 yen currently, raising concerns about rising import prices [2][4] - The market has reacted to the potential for delayed interest rate hikes due to fiscal expansion, leading to a sell-off of the yen and an increase in bond yields, with the 20-year government bond yield reaching 2.810%, the highest in 26 years [6] - There is a growing consensus within the government and the BOJ that if inflation accelerates further, interest rate hikes may become unavoidable, with market expectations for rate increases in December and January reaching 70% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has been weakening due to market expectations that the newly elected Prime Minister, Sanna Takashi, will pressure the Bank of Japan to slow down interest rate hikes, with the USD/JPY exchange rate rising approximately 5% since October 4, reaching 155.00 [1] Group 1: Government Response to Yen Depreciation - Upgrading verbal intervention is highly likely, as the Japanese authorities are closely monitoring the yen's "one-sided and severe" fluctuations, with Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama expressing heightened vigilance against the yen's volatility [2] - There is a possibility of signaling recent interest rate hikes, as concerns over the yen's depreciation may prompt Prime Minister Takashi to support raising the policy rate to 0.75% [3] - The Bank of Japan may implement interest rate hikes, with indications from Governor Kazuo Ueda suggesting a gradual adjustment of monetary easing, potentially leading to a rate increase in December or January [4] Group 2: Market Intervention Considerations - The likelihood of direct market intervention is low, as the last intervention occurred in July 2024 when the yen hit a 38-year low against the dollar, and current government members do not show significant concern over yen depreciation [5]

Group 1 - The Japanese stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Nikkei 225 index falling below 49,000 points, down over 1,400 points, representing a drop of 2.83% [1] - The Japanese yen continued its weakening trend, with the euro to yen exchange rate surpassing 180 for the first time since 1999, driven by concerns over Japan's deteriorating fiscal situation [3] - Political tensions arising from provocative statements by Japanese Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide regarding Taiwan have negatively impacted consumer sentiment, leading to declines in major companies such as SoftBank Group, Tokyo Electron, and Nintendo [5] Group 2 - Analysts express concerns that deteriorating Japan-China relations could further impact Japan's economy, which is already facing downward pressure, potentially leading to negative growth in the fourth quarter [7] - The South Korean stock market also saw a significant drop, with the KOSPI index declining over 3% [7]