Group 1 - The uncertainty surrounding the ruling party's ability to secure a majority in the upcoming July 20 Senate elections has led to selling pressure on the yen [1] - The yen's exchange rate against the dollar fell to the 149 yen range for the first time in three months, indicating market concerns about the ruling party's potential loss of majority [1] - A survey conducted by the Nikkei on July 13-15 revealed that the ruling coalition's ability to secure the necessary 50 seats has become precarious, raising fears of increased government debt if they need to cooperate with opposition parties advocating for expansionary fiscal policies [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Labor Department reported a 2.7% year-on-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June, up from 2.4% in May, which has cooled expectations for an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] - The confirmation of accelerating inflation has contributed to a stronger dollar against various currencies, further exacerbating the selling pressure on the yen [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant depreciation of the Japanese yen against major currencies, particularly the US dollar, due to new tariffs imposed by the US government and concerns over Japan's economic slowdown [1][3][5] - The yen's depreciation against the Swiss franc reached a historical low, while it also fell to a one-year low against the euro, indicating widespread selling pressure on the yen [1][3] - The new tariff rate announced by Trump, which is set to take effect on August 1, is expected to have a severe impact on Japan's economy, with predictions of a GDP decline of up to 1% [5][6] Group 2 - The market sentiment is increasingly pessimistic regarding Japan's economic prospects, with expectations that the Bank of Japan will not raise interest rates in the near term due to ongoing economic concerns [5][6] - Speculative positions in the yen have decreased significantly, indicating a reduction in bullish sentiment towards the currency [5][6] - The upcoming US consumer price index (CPI) data release on July 15 is anticipated to influence market perceptions of inflation and interest rate expectations, potentially leading to further yen depreciation [6][8] Group 3 - Japanese companies are forecasting an average exchange rate of 143 yen per dollar for the fiscal year 2025, suggesting a potential appreciation of the yen if current trends continue [7] - However, the depreciation of the yen could lead to increased import prices, negatively impacting consumer spending and overall economic conditions in Japan [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that rising energy costs are the primary driver of the recent depreciation of the Japanese yen, which has been further exacerbated by inflationary pressures and market uncertainties [2][3][6] - Japan's reliance on imported oil has led to increased foreign exchange demand, weakening the yen's market liquidity, and contributing to a widening trade deficit [3][6] - The market anticipates potential adjustments to Japan's negative interest rate policy due to rising corporate goods prices, which could provide some support for the yen in the medium term [4][6] Group 2 - There is a growing contradiction between policy interventions and market expectations, as public criticism from U.S. officials regarding the yen's exchange rate has heightened vigilance within the Japanese government [5][6] - The interplay between rising energy import costs and expectations of a policy shift creates a complex environment for the yen, which is likely to face continued pressure in the short term [6]

Core Viewpoint - The new Bank of Japan Governor Kazuyuki Masu indicates that the yen's movement is influenced by both upward and downward factors, suggesting a complex economic environment for companies [1] Group 1: Impact on Companies - Many companies benefit from the depreciation of the yen, highlighting a potential opportunity for growth in certain sectors [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Stance - The stance of the new governor is neither hawkish nor dovish, indicating a balanced approach to monetary policy that may affect market expectations and investment strategies [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan is experiencing a significant price increase in various consumer goods, with 2,105 items set to rise in price in July, marking a fivefold increase compared to the same period last year [1][3]. Price Increase Details - The majority of the price hikes are in seasonings, with 1,445 items affected, followed by beverages like coffee (206 items), snacks such as chocolate and gum (196 items), and processed foods like packaged rice (117 items) [5]. - The primary reasons for these price increases are rising raw material costs and increased production costs due to higher energy prices [9]. Historical Context - Japan began experiencing price increases in 2022, breaking a 40-year trend of stable prices, influenced by global instability, yen depreciation, and rising costs of electricity and grains [11]. - The price index for various food items has significantly increased from 1994 to 2023, with items like chicken eggs rising by approximately 92% and pork by about 65% [12]. Food Supply and Import Dependency - Japan's food self-sufficiency rate is low at 38%, the lowest among G7 countries, meaning 62% of its food supply relies on imports, which becomes more expensive with yen depreciation [17]. - In 2024, Japan is expected to face rice shortages, with rice prices in the Tokyo market increasing by 93.2% year-on-year [13]. Wage Trends - Despite rising prices, many large companies have increased starting salaries for new graduates significantly, sometimes exceeding the salaries of employees with ten years of experience [19].

Group 1 - The overall appreciation of the yen since the beginning of the year is primarily due to the depreciation of the dollar, with the yen's depreciation against other currencies being minimal [1] - The exchange rate of the yen against the dollar hovers around 145 yen per dollar, indicating that the depreciation of the yen has not completely ended, rooted in Japan's economic weaknesses [1] - The acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel, completed on June 18 for approximately $14.1 billion (about 2 trillion yen), has been a focal point in the foreign exchange market, influencing yen transactions [1][2] Group 2 - The depreciation of the yen since 2021 is attributed to "structural yen selling," driven by Japanese companies' direct investments abroad, such as mergers and acquisitions [3] - Japan's net direct investment abroad reached a historical high of 32 trillion yen for the fiscal year 2024, with monthly foreign investments averaging 2.6 trillion yen, significantly outpacing domestic investments [3] - The potential growth rate of Japan's economy is around 0%, with an average real GDP growth rate of 0.5% over the past decade, which is notably low among G7 countries [5] Group 3 - The share of mergers and acquisitions in Japan's domestic direct investment is only about 40%, lower than the approximately 60% seen in developed countries, indicating a sluggish growth in domestic investments [4] - The Japanese government aims to increase the balance of direct investment in Japan to 150 trillion yen, highlighting the need for attracting foreign capital back to Japan [3]

日元年初以来整体升值的走势主要是由于美元自身在贬值，兑其他货币的升值微乎其微。"结构性 日元抛售"是原因之一，其中根深蒂固的是日企为了开展海外业务而进行的直接投资…… 日元对美元汇率徘徊在1美元兑145日元区间，超过150日元的日元贬值局面似乎已经结束。但这 仅仅是美元贬值推高了日元汇率，日元贬值局面还没有完全结束。其根源在于"日本的弱势"，能 否改变这一点将左右日元贬值的真正扭转。 道富环球投资管理（State Street Global Advisors）的首席投资官（CIO）新原谦介指出，"最近 几年美元实际汇率处于在历史上也偏高的状态。特朗普总统就任后，美元有了"卖出的理由"，美 元升值的调整开始"。 日元兑美元以外货币的升值微乎其微。日元兑欧元汇率6月20日创出2024年7月以来的低水平， 对兑士法郎和新台币也处于2025年初以来的低水平。 日本银行（央行）1月进行了加息。加息通常会引起货币升值。在此期间，投机资金的日元买入 膨胀至历史最高水平，但"日元对美元以外的汇率却不可思议地并未升值"（另一位日系银行的经 纪人）。 导致2021年以后日元贬值的"结构性日元抛售"是原因之一。其中根深蒂固的是日铁 ...

Group 1 - The appreciation of the yen against the dollar is partially supported by the depreciation of the dollar due to the U.S. monetary easing policies aimed at addressing domestic economic recession and high inflation [3][4] - The long-term depreciation of the yen is attributed to structural issues within the Japanese economy, including a phenomenon of "structural yen selling" driven by Japanese companies' overseas investments [3][4] - Japan's low interest rate policy and economic stagnation have led to capital outflows, further exacerbating the depreciation of the yen [4][6] Group 2 - Global economic uncertainties, including U.S. monetary policy and the recovery of the European and Chinese economies, significantly impact the yen's value [6][7] - The reliance on exports makes Japan's economy vulnerable to fluctuations in the yen's exchange rate, which can affect the competitiveness of Japanese exporters [6][9] - Japan must focus on internal economic reforms and reduce dependence on external markets to achieve sustainable economic growth and address the underlying issues of yen depreciation [9]

Core Viewpoint - Japan has lost its position as the world's largest creditor nation to Germany for the first time in 34 years, with its net foreign assets reaching a record 533.05 trillion yen by the end of 2024, but still falling short of Germany's 569.65 trillion yen [1][3]. Economic Data - Japan's net foreign assets increased by 12.9% from the previous year, marking the seventh consecutive year of growth and surpassing 500 trillion yen for the first time [1]. - Japan's GDP in dollar terms decreased from $5 trillion in 2023 to $4.77 trillion in 2024, dropping to fourth place globally, while Germany's GDP reached $4.8 trillion [1][3]. - As of the end of 2024, Japan's foreign asset balance was 1,659.02 trillion yen, up 11.4% year-on-year, while foreign liabilities were 1,125.97 trillion yen, a 10.7% increase [3][4]. Investment Trends - Japanese companies have increasingly focused on direct investments rather than foreign bonds, with over 40% of reinvested earnings not returning to Japan, indicating a trend towards new investments [6][8]. - The five major Japanese trading companies, favored by Warren Buffett, have a high internationalization ratio, with four of them investing over 45% outside Japan [4]. - In 2024, Japan's investment in the U.S. reached 11.7 trillion yen, accounting for nearly 40% of its total foreign investments, the highest level since 2014 [4]. Currency and Economic Challenges - The depreciation of the yen has been significant, with the exchange rate reaching 157.89 yen per dollar by the end of 2024, an 11.7% increase from the previous year [3][5]. - Japan's economy faced a contraction in the first quarter of 2024, with GDP declining by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 0.7% year-on-year, attributed to weak personal consumption and external demand [5][6]. Policy and Market Reactions - The Bank of Japan is facing challenges in balancing its bond yield policies and quantitative easing, leading to supply-demand imbalances in the bond market [7][8]. - Concerns over Japan's fiscal sustainability are affecting investor sentiment towards Japanese government bonds, with potential implications for future investment strategies [8].

Core Viewpoint - The report by Mitsubishi UFJ highlights that the depreciation of the yen may still have room to continue due to the significant drop in Japanese government bond yields [1] Group 1: Currency Analysis - Analysts suggest that the depreciation of the yen is limited by the recent substantial decline in long-term Japanese government bond yields [1] - Market speculation indicates that Japan is considering adjustments to its bond issuance plans to support ultra-long-term bonds, contributing to the lower yields [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - The report notes that despite the yen's weakness, factors such as weak demand for the dollar, unpredictable trade policies from President Trump, and the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates later this year could lead to renewed buying of the yen [1]