Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the reports. 2. Core Views The reports present a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures. They provide detailed data on price differences, ratios, and related market indicators, helping investors understand market trends and potential investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Differences**: The reports provide detailed data on the price differences of various stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM. For example, the IF term - spot price difference is -3.33, with a historical 1 - year percentile of 34.10% and a full - historical percentile of 34.80% [1]. - **Cross - period Price Differences**: Different cross - period price differences are presented, such as the difference between the next - month and current - month contracts, and the difference between the quarterly - month and current - month contracts for each index futures [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios between different stock index futures, like IC/IF, IC/IH, and IF/IH, are also provided, along with their historical percentiles [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis and IRR**: Data on the basis and implied repo rate (IRR) of treasury bond futures, including TS, TF, T, and TL, are given. For example, the TS basis on 2025 - 07 - 25 is 1.4667, with a change of 0.0162 from the previous day and a historical percentile of 19.10% [2]. - **Cross - period Price Differences**: Cross - period price differences for different contracts of treasury bond futures, such as the difference between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts, are presented [2]. - **Cross - variety Price Differences**: Price differences between different treasury bond futures, like TS - TF, TS - T, and TF - T, are also provided [2]. Precious Metal Futures - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The reports show the closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metal futures, including AU2510, AG2510, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver, as well as their changes and price - to - spot differences [4]. - **Price Ratios and Spreads**: Ratios between gold and silver futures, such as COMEX gold/silver and SHFE gold/silver, and spreads between different gold and silver products, like gold TD - SHFE gold and silver TD - SHFE silver, are provided [4]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: Information on interest rates (e.g., 10 - year US Treasury bond yield, 2 - year US Treasury bond yield) and exchange rates (e.g., US dollar index, offshore RMB exchange rate) is also included [4]. Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Quotes**: Spot quotes for container shipping from Shanghai to Europe by different shipping companies, such as MAERSK, CMA, and MSC, are provided, along with their changes [6]. - **Shipping Indexes**: Settlement price indexes, including SCFIS (European route) and SCFIS (US West route), and Shanghai export container freight indexes, such as SCFI composite index and SCFI (European), are presented, along with their changes [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of container shipping futures contracts, like EC2602, EC2604, and EC2508 (the main contract), and the basis of the main contract are provided, along with their changes [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Data on container shipping fundamentals, including global container shipping capacity supply, port on - time rates, and overseas economic indicators (e.g., Eurozone composite PMI, EU consumer confidence index), are also given [6]. Trading Calendar - **Overseas Data/Information**: Information on overseas data and information sources for different sectors, such as Brazilian secex weekly reports in the agricultural sector and USDA export inspection and crop growth data in the US, is provided [7]. - **Domestic Data/Information**: Domestic data and information sources for different sectors, including black and non - ferrous metals (e.g., global manganese ore shipments, iron ore shipments), energy and chemicals (e.g., MEG port inventory in East China, Shandong local refinery crude oil arrivals), and special commodities (e.g., glass sales - to - production ratio, polysilicon production and inventory), are presented [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Each report presents data and analysis on different futures markets, including stock index futures, Treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping, and a trading calendar, without a unified core view. 3. Summary by Report Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **IF, IH, IC, and IM Futures**: Presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical 1 - year and all - time percentiles of spot - futures spreads and inter - period spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM futures. For example, the IF spot - futures spread is 37.60% with a change of - 9.16 [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Provides cross - variety ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 1000/CSI 300, etc., along with their changes and percentiles [1]. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **IRR and Basis**: Shows the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing for the implied repo rate (IRR) and basis of TS, TF, and TL Treasury bond futures [2]. - **Inter - Period and Cross - Variety Spreads**: Presents inter - period spreads (e.g., current quarter - next quarter) and cross - variety spreads (e.g., TS - TF) for different Treasury bond futures, along with their changes and percentiles [2]. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Reports domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, and their changes and percentage changes for gold and silver on July 22 and 21. For example, the AU2510 contract rose 0.40% to 784.84 yuan/gram on July 22 [3]. - **Basis, Ratios, Yields, and Inventories**: Provides basis values, ratios (e.g., COMEX gold/silver), yields of US Treasury bonds, the US dollar index, and inventory data for precious metals, along with their changes [3]. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot Quotes and Indexes**: Gives spot quotes for Shanghai - Europe shipping prices and various container shipping indexes (e.g., SCFIS, SCFI), along with their changes and percentage changes [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Presents futures prices and basis values for container shipping futures contracts, along with their changes [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Includes data on shipping capacity supply, port performance, export volume, and overseas economic indicators, along with their changes [5]. Trading Calendar - **Overseas and Domestic Data/Information**: Lists overseas and domestic economic indicators and financial events to be released on July 23, including time, data source, and relevant details [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views There are no explicit core views presented in the reports. The reports mainly provide data on various futures, including price differentials, closing prices, and related indicators. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Stock Index Futures Spread - **IF期现价差**: 32.30%, down 16.75, 5.94 in historical 1 - year percentile, 25.90% in all - time percentile [1] - **IH期现价差**: 2.48, up 5.34, 74.10% in historical 1 - year percentile, 72.20% in all - time percentile [1] - **IC期现价差**: - 98.81, up 5.65, 8.10% in historical 1 - year percentile, 2.80% in all - time percentile [1] - **IM期现价差**: - 138.47, up 6.80, 90.00% in historical 1 - year percentile, 8.20% in all - time percentile [1] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Spread - **TS基差 (2025 - 07 - 18)**: 1.5570, up 0.0032, 22.20% in listed - since percentile [2] - **TF基差 (2025 - 07 - 18)**: 1.6510, up 0.0085, 44.60% in listed - since percentile [2] - **T基差 (2025 - 07 - 18)**: 1.3735, up 0.0708, 46.80% in listed - since percentile [2] - **TL基差 (2025 - 07 - 18)**: 1.7138, up 0.2243, 60.70% in listed - since percentile [2] 3.3 Precious Metals Spot - Futures - **AU2510合约 (7月17日)**: 776.28 yuan/g, down 0.38, - 0.05% [4] - **AG2510合约 (7月17日)**: 9166 yuan/kg, up 14, 0.15% [4] - **COMEX黄金主力合约 (7月17日)**: 3345.40, down 8.80, - 0.26% [4] - **COMEX白银主力合约 (7月17日)**: 38.44 dollars/ounce, up 0.31, 0.81% [4] 3.4 Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures - **SCFIS (欧洲航线) (7月14日)**: 2421.94, up 163.9, 7.26% [7] - **SCFIS (美西航线) (7月14日)**: 1266.59, down 291.2, - 18.69% [7] - **EC2602 (7月18日)**: 1495.1, up 9.4, 0.63% [7] - **EC2510 (主力) (7月18日)**: 1613.0, up 31.7, 2.00% [7] 3.5 Trading Calendar - **海外数据/资讯**: Include US 6 - month Conference Board Leading Index monthly rate, Brazil secex report, USDA export inspection and crop growth data [9] - **国内数据/资讯**: Cover global manganese ore shipments, iron ore shipments and arrivals, SMM electrolytic copper social inventory, etc [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The reports present daily data on various futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping industry futures, as well as relevant spot prices, spreads, ratios, and other market - related information [1][2][4][6] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Spreads**: On July 18, 2025, the F period - spot spread was 19.60% with a change of - 22.69 compared to the previous day. The IC period - spot spread was - 104.46, a change of - 93.87. Different cross - period and cross - variety spreads also had specific values and changes [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **Price Spreads**: On July 18, 2025, the TS basis was 1.6630 with a change of - 0.0146. Different cross - period and cross - variety spreads of treasury bond futures also had corresponding values and changes [2] Precious Metal Futures - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 17, 2025, the AU2510 contract closed at 776.28 yuan/gram, a decrease of 0.38 compared to the previous day. The COMEX gold主力合约 closed at 3345.40 dollars/ounce, a decrease of 8.80. Different basis and price ratios also had specific values and changes [4] Container Shipping Industry Futures - **Spot Quotes**: On July 18, 2025, the Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rate reference for MAERSK was 3066 dollars/FEU with no change. The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index on July 14 was 2421.94, an increase of 163.9 compared to July 7 [6] - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity supply on July 18 was 3271.40 million TEU with no change. The export punctuality rate (short - term) decreased by 18.66% [6] Data/Information Calendar - **Overseas**: On July 18, 2025, at 16:00, the euro - zone May seasonally adjusted current account (in billions of euros) was to be released; at 22:00, the US July one - year inflation rate expectation initial value and the US July University of Michigan consumer confidence index initial value were to be released [8] - **Domestic**: Various economic indicators of different industries such as agriculture, black and non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, and special commodities were to be released at different times [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean meal futures market is showing a strong upward trend, but the continuous upward space for US soybeans is limited, so the upward space for soybean meal is also expected to be limited. Given the large subsequent export pressure from Brazil and the good weather conditions in US soybean-producing areas, the rebound space for the futures market is also expected to be limited [7]. - The fundamental situation of rapeseed meal has changed little recently. Due to concerns about future supply and the current price already reflecting potential supply shortages, it is expected that rapeseed meal will not show a significantly strong trend. The narrowing space for the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is limited, and after this round of price increases, rapeseed meal may still face some pressure, with the price difference expected to widen overall [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, the US soybean futures market showed a significant upward trend. Although there was no clear driving factor, the previous sharp decline had fully reflected the negative factors. After a marginal improvement in demand, the domestic soybean meal futures market also showed a significant increase, mainly driven by cost factors. The domestic rapeseed meal futures market also rose significantly, influenced by the increase in soybean meal prices and concerns about future supply shortages due to Canada's tariff increase on Chinese steel [4]. - The monthly price difference of domestic soybean meal futures showed a strengthening trend, while rapeseed meal remained strongly supported. Overall, the market is still worried about the future supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal, but the current prices have already fully reflected these concerns, making further price increases difficult [4]. Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The adjustment of the new US soybean balance sheet is generally negative. Although US soybean exports were lowered, soybean crushing was increased, resulting in a slight increase in ending stocks. As of the week ending July 13, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans reached 70%. As of the week ending July 10, the export inspection volume of old US soybeans was 147,000 tons. The soybean crushing data for June in the US was good, with the NOPA's soybean crushing volume reaching 185.709 million bushels, a year-on-year increase of 5.76%, and the crushing profit rebounded [5]. - **South America**: Brazilian farmers' selling progress has been relatively slow, and the overall selling progress is at a historically low level for this period. Recently, the selling progress has continued to slow down, and price pressure is starting to show. The recent soybean crushing volume in Brazil has decreased. Although the soybean crushing volume in April, as reported by abiove, was relatively good, the crushing profit remained relatively low. Due to large Chinese purchases, the domestic crushing profit in Brazil has weakened. In this context, Brazil may further increase its soybean exports [5]. - **Argentina**: The domestic soybean crushing volume in Argentina may improve in the future. Although the previous crushing volume decreased due to capacity constraints, the prices of terminal products have begun to stabilize, and soybean exports may increase [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic spot market for soybean meal remains relatively loose. The operating rate of oil mills has continued to increase, leading to sufficient market supply and increased提货量. Inventory has gradually accumulated, but the overall spot market transactions have been average, and the market's acceptance of current prices is also average. As of July 11, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2954 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.52%. The soybean inventory was 6.5749 million tons, an increase of 210,900 tons from the previous week, or 3.31%, and a year-on-year increase of 661,400 tons, or 11.18%. The soybean meal inventory was 886,200 tons, an increase of 63,800 tons from the previous week, or 7.76%, and a year-on-year decrease of 333,100 tons, or 27.32% [6]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal has recently shown a gradual weakening trend. Although the operating rate of oil mills has decreased, the overall supply remains sufficient. With the decline in demand and the high level of granular rapeseed meal, there is still supply pressure. Although there is uncertainty about the future supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal, demand has also weakened, and there is still some pressure in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that rapeseed meal will mainly fluctuate [6]. Macro Analysis - The Sino-US negotiations in London have been completed, but the market has not received clear information. Due to the lack of clear macro guidance, the market continues to be concerned about the uncertainty of future supply. Although there are still many uncertainties in international trade, as the market gradually stabilizes, macro disturbances are decreasing. However, since China's long-term demand for US soybeans remains high, the price is unlikely to drop significantly in the short term, especially in the absence of macro guidance [7]. Trading Strategies - **Single Position**: Hold a wait-and-see attitude [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Conduct a reverse spread on RM91 [8]. - **Options**: Hold a wait-and-see attitude [8].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Commodity Research Institute Agricultural Product Research Report - Meal Daily Report" [1][2] - Report Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The US soybean new - crop balance sheet adjustment is overall bearish, with a slight increase in ending stocks. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets lack clear drivers, and the markets are mainly in a narrow - range oscillation. The rapeseed meal market has concerns about future supply, but there are also uncertainties [4][5][7] - The international soybean market has supply pressure, mainly from South America. The domestic soybean meal spot is relatively loose, and the rapeseed meal demand is gradually weakening [5][6] - Macro - level information is unclear, and the short - term decline of the soybean market is limited. The soybean meal and rapeseed meal spreads are expected to widen, and the spreads between different contract months may face pressure [7] Group 4: Market Review - The US soybean futures showed a slight upward trend. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures generally declined slightly. The soybean meal inter - month spreads continued to decline, while the rapeseed meal spreads were relatively stable [4] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis International Market - The US soybean new - crop balance sheet adjustment is bearish. As of July 13, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans reached 70%. The US soybean exports were lowered, but the crushing was raised, and the ending stocks slightly increased. The Brazilian farmers' selling progress is slow, and the recent selling has further slowed down. The Brazilian soybean crushing has decreased, and the Argentine domestic crushing may improve, but soybean exports may increase [5] Domestic Market - The domestic soybean meal spot market is relatively loose, with increasing oil - mill operating rates, sufficient supply, and increasing inventory. The rapeseed meal demand is gradually weakening, and although the supply is also uncertain, it is expected to be in a range - bound operation [6] Group 6: Macro - level Analysis - The Sino - US negotiation in London has ended without clear information. The market has concerns about future supply uncertainty. The international trade has many uncertainties, and the soybean market is not likely to decline significantly in the short term [7] Group 7: Logic Analysis - The domestic soybean meal futures oscillate in a narrow range, supported by future supply uncertainty. The US soybean futures have limited decline and rebound space. The inter - month spreads may face pressure but have limited decline space. The rapeseed meal is affected by supply uncertainty, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen [7] Group 8: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see [8] - Arbitrage: RM91 reverse arbitrage [8] - Options: Wait and see [8]

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report presents the latest values, historical quantiles, and changes of various stock index futures spreads, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, on July 16, 2025 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Stock Index Futures Spreads**: Provides the latest values, historical 1 - year and full - historical quantiles, and changes compared to the previous day for IF, IH, IC, and IM futures' term - spot spreads, inter - term spreads, and cross - variety ratios [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report shows the latest values, changes, and historical quantiles of various treasury bond futures spreads, including basis, inter - term spreads, and cross - variety spreads, on July 16, 2025 [2]. Summary by Directory - **Treasury Bond Futures Spreads**: Presents the IRR, basis, inter - term spreads, and cross - variety spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL treasury bond futures, along with their changes and historical quantiles [2]. Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report details the domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals on July 16, 2025 [9]. Summary by Directory - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: The AU2510 contract closed at 780.40 yuan/gram, down 0.13%, and the AG2510 contract closed at 9225 yuan/kg, up 0.20% [9]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: COMEX gold closed at 3330.50 dollars/ounce, down 0.64%, and COMEX silver closed at 37.99 dollars/ounce, down 1.11% [9]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold was at 3323.14 dollars/ounce, down 0.59%, and London silver was at 37.69 dollars/ounce, down 1.12% [9]. - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract was - 4.27, down 0.33, and silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract was - 41, down 6 [9]. - **Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver was 87.68, up 0.47%, and SHFE gold/silver was 84.60, down 0.32% [9]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.50%, up 1.6%, and the US dollar index was 98.63, up 0.53% [9]. - **Inventory and Positions**: SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.05%, and SHFE silver inventory decreased by 0.08% [9]. Group 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report provides information on spot quotes, container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry on July 16, 2025 [11]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Quotes**: MAERSK's Shanghai - Europe 6 - week future freight rate increased by 1.39%, while CMA CGM increased by 4.02%, and some remained unchanged [11]. - **Container Shipping Indices**: The SCFIS (European route) increased by 7.26%, and the SCFIS (US West route) decreased by 18.69% [11]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc. all had varying degrees of increase, and the basis of the main contract increased by 10.20% [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged, Shanghai port on - time rate decreased by 18.66%, and monthly export amount increased by 2.87% [11]. Group 5: Trading Calendar Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report lists overseas and domestic economic data and financial events to be released on July 16, 2025 [12]. Summary by Directory - **Overseas Data/Information**: Includes the eurozone's May seasonally - adjusted trade balance, US June PPI, industrial output, and API and EIA crude oil inventories [12]. - **Domestic Data/Information**: Covers steel - related surveys, Chinese port commercial crude oil inventories, glass production - sales ratio, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory [12].

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Core View - Presents the latest values, historical 1 - year and all - time quantiles, and changes from the previous day of various stock index futures spreads and cross - variety ratios on July 16, 2025 [1] Summary by Category - **Futures - Spot Spreads**: IF futures - spot spread is - 38.46, with a change of - 6.60 from the previous day; H futures - spot spread is - 13.03, with a change of - 2.62; IC futures - spot spread is - 10.56, with a change of 1.90; IM futures - spot spread is - 165.43, with a change of - 5.33 [1] - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: Different inter - delivery spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided, such as IF's next - month minus current - month spread is - 2.80, and its quarterly - month minus current - month spread is - 29.00 [1] - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios like CSI 500/Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 1000/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc. are presented, for example, IC/IF ratio is 1.5094, with a change of 0.0019 [1] Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Core View - Displays the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing of various treasury bond futures spreads and basis on July 16, 2025 [2] Summary by Category - **Basis**: TS basis is 1.6011, TF basis is 1.6394, T basis is 1.5701, and TL basis is 1.5663 on July 15, 2025 [2] - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: For TS, TF, T, and TL, different inter - delivery spreads are given, such as TS's current - quarter minus next - quarter spread is - 0.0820, with a change of 0.0060 [2] - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads like TS - TF, TS - T, etc. are provided, for example, TS - TF spread is - 3.6070, with a change of - 0.0670 [2] Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View - Provides domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals on July 16, 2025 [8] Summary by Category - **Futures Closing Prices**: AU2510 contract closed at 780.40 yuan/gram on July 15, down 1.00 yuan from the previous day; AG2510 contract closed at 9225 yuan/kg, up 18 yuan [8] - **Spot Prices**: London gold was at 3323.14 dollars/ounce, down 19.67 dollars; London silver was at 37.69 dollars/ounce, down 0.43 dollars [8] - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis is - 4.27, with a change of - 0.33; silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract basis is - 41, with a change of - 6 [8] - **Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver ratio is 87.68, with a change of 0.41; SHFE gold/silver ratio is 84.60, with a change of - 0.27 [8] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.50%, up 0.07%; US dollar index is 98.63, up 0.52 [8] - **Inventory and Positions**: SHFE gold inventory is 28872, up 15; SHFE silver inventory is 1222959, down 1023 [8] Group 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View - Shows spot quotes, container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry on July 16, 2025 [10] Summary by Category - **Spot Quotes**: MAERSK's Shanghai - Europe 6 - week future freight rate is 3069 dollars/FEU, up 42 dollars; CMA CGM's is 4398 dollars/FEU, up 170 dollars [10] - **Container Shipping Indices**: SCFIS (European route) settlement price index is 2421.94, up 163.9; SCFIS (US West route) is 1266.59, down 291.2 [10] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: EC2602 futures price is 1516.4, up 130.3; the basis of the main contract is 965.1, up 89.3 [10] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply is 3270.26 ATEU, unchanged; Shanghai port on - time rate is 34.57, down 7.93 [10] Group 5: Trading Calendar Core View - Lists overseas and domestic economic indicators and financial events scheduled for July 16, 2025 [11] Summary by Category - **Overseas Data/Information**: Eurozone's 5 - month seasonally adjusted trade balance at 17:00; US June PPI annual and daily rates at 20:30, etc. [11] - **Domestic Data/Information**: Steel Union's weekly production and sales survey of 523 mines for coking coal at night; China's port commercial crude oil inventory at 14:30 [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets have limited changes, with reduced market volatility. The soybean meal futures price is driven by the US soybean market and market information, while the rapeseed meal futures price is affected by the uncertainty of future supply. The international soybean market has supply pressure, mainly concentrated in South America. The domestic spot market is relatively loose, with increasing oil mill operating rates and inventory accumulation. The report provides trading strategies, including suggesting to exit long positions and positive spreads, and to wait and see for options [2][3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The US soybean futures showed a strong trend. After the monthly supply - demand report showed negative news, the market rebounded. The domestic soybean meal futures were driven by the US soybean market and market information, while the rapeseed meal futures rebounded significantly due to the uncertainty of future supply. The inter - month spreads of domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures showed different trends [2]. Fundamentals - The adjustment of the US soybean new - crop balance sheet was negative, with lower exports and higher crushing, and a slight increase in ending stocks. As of July 6, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%. The export inspection volume of old - crop US soybeans was 389,400 tons as of July 3. The May US soybean crushing data was good, with a 1.37% month - on - month increase. The selling progress of Brazilian farmers was slow, and the recent selling progress continued to slow down, with price pressure emerging. Brazilian soybean crushing decreased, and the crushing profit was relatively low. Argentina's domestic crushing may improve, but soybean exports may increase. Overall, the international soybean supply pressure is concentrated in South America [3]. - The domestic spot market was relatively loose. As of July 11, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2954 million tons, the operating rate was 64.52%, the soybean inventory was 6.5749 million tons (a 3.31% increase from last week and an 11.18% increase year - on - year), and the soybean meal inventory was 886,200 tons (a 7.76% increase from last week and a 27.32% decrease year - on - year). The demand for domestic rapeseed meal has gradually weakened, and although the supply is uncertain, the demand is also weakening, so it is expected to be in a volatile state [5]. Macro and Logic Analysis - The Sino - US negotiation in London provided no clear information, and the market was still worried about supply uncertainty. The domestic soybean meal futures had some support, but the rebound space was limited. The US soybean futures were expected to have limited deep - decline and rebound space. The inter - month spreads of the futures may face some pressure but also have limited deep - decline space. The rapeseed meal market was mainly affected by supply uncertainty, and it was difficult to show a strong trend. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was expected to widen, and the inter - month spread of rapeseed meal futures may also face pressure [6]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to exit the M91 positive spread and wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean meal futures showed some support, but today's upward movement was mainly due to the uncertainty of long - term supply rather than its own factors. The US soybean futures declined due to the bearish monthly supply - demand report, but the deep - decline space was limited, and the rebound space was also restricted by Brazil's export pressure and good weather in US production areas. - The fundamental situation of rapeseed meal has changed little recently, mainly affected by the uncertainty of future supply. It is expected that it will be difficult to show a significantly strong trend, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen. - The inter - monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures may face some pressure, but the deep - decline space is limited [4][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The US soybean futures showed a strong upward trend. After the bearish monthly supply - demand report, the futures rebounded. The domestic soybean meal futures were driven by the US soybean futures and market information. The domestic rapeseed meal futures rebounded significantly due to the uncertainty of long - term supply. - The inter - monthly spreads of domestic soybean meal futures strengthened slightly, and those of rapeseed meal futures strengthened significantly. However, due to the uncertainty of market news, the possibility of further strengthening is uncertain [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 International Market - The adjustment of the new US soybean balance sheet was bearish. Exports were lowered, but crushing was raised, and the ending stocks increased slightly. As of the week ending July 6, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans reached 66%. As of the week ending July 3, the export inspection volume of old US soybeans was 389,400 tons. The US soybean crushing data in May was good, with a crushing volume of 192.829 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 1.37%, and the crushing profit rebounded. - Brazilian farmers' selling progress was slow, and the overall selling progress was at a low level in the same period of history. The recent selling progress continued to slow down, and price pressure began to appear. The recent crushing volume in Brazil decreased, and the crushing profit was relatively low. It is expected that Brazil may further increase exports. - Argentina's domestic crushing volume may improve, but soybean exports may increase. The international soybean supply pressure is mainly concentrated in South America [5]. 3.2.2 Domestic Market - The domestic soybean meal spot market was relatively loose. The oil refinery operating rate increased, and inventories gradually accumulated. As of July 11, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil refineries was 2.2954 million tons, the operating rate was 64.52%, the soybean inventory was 6.5749 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 210,900 tons (3.31%) and a year - on - year increase of 661,400 tons (11.18%). The soybean meal inventory was 886,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 63,800 tons (7.76%) and a year - on - year decrease of 333,100 tons (27.32%). - The domestic rapeseed meal demand has gradually weakened recently. Although the refinery operating rate has decreased, the overall supply is sufficient, and there is still supply pressure. As of the week ending July 14, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil refineries was 37,000 tons, and the operating rate this week was 9.86%. The rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil refineries was 146,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 15,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,500 tons [6]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The China - US negotiations in London have ended, but the market has not received clear information. Due to the lack of clear macro - guidance, the market is still worried about the uncertainty of future supply. Although the overall international trade situation has many uncertain factors, the macro - disturbances are decreasing as the market stabilizes. In the short term, it is not easy for China's long - term soybean demand for the US market to decline significantly [7]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended that investors with existing long positions should exit and wait and see. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to exit the M91 long - spread position and wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [8]