Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core View - The short - term price trends of domestic and foreign soybean futures may diverge. The external market is suppressed by South American bumper harvests, while the domestic market is supported by stocking demand. Palm oil shows a relatively strong performance in the oil and fat sector, driven by market sentiment and marginal improvements in the industrial chain supply - demand situation [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Bean Meal (M) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: follows the external market, with an intraday view of being slightly stronger; medium - term: oscillating [5][6]. - **Driving Factors**: The US soybean price has declined due to the expected increase in China's soybean imports from Brazil. Although the US soybean export inspection volume has increased by 79% year - on - year, the cumulative annual volume is still lower than the same period last year. Domestic Spring Festival stocking demand supports bean prices, and the feed enterprises' active pick - up before the festival has reduced the oil mills' inventory pressure. The recovery of the crushing profit on the futures market has led to a large - scale transaction of far - month contracts, limiting the rebound space of bean meal [5]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: in a policy - sensitive period, maintaining a relatively strong operation pattern; medium - term: strong; intraday: slightly stronger [6][7]. - **Driving Factors**: Malaysian palm oil has seen a decline in production and an increase in exports. Favorable high - frequency data have improved the supply - demand situation and alleviated inventory pressure, driving up the price. India's cancellation of over 50,000 tons of soybean oil orders from Brazil and Argentina and turning to palm oil procurement has provided demand support. The domestic palm oil futures price has followed the external market, with market sentiment significantly warming up. High import costs, limited purchases, a slight reduction in port inventory, and a firm spot basis have all contributed to the strong performance [7]. 3.3 Soybean Oil - **Price Trends**: Short - term: strong; medium - term: strong; intraday: slightly stronger; reference view: slightly stronger [6]. - **Driving Factors**: Supported by US soybean cost, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is mostly in the red, with nickel futures showing a weak performance and a decline of 2.48% [1] - The current nickel market is experiencing a downward trend, with institutions highlighting concerns over Indonesia's quota not meeting the new production capacity, which may affect future price movements [2] - There is a significant increase in primary nickel production by 18.5% to 37,200 tons, contributing to rising domestic visible inventory and potential pressure on prices [3] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the price of nickel may face short-term support from Indonesian policies, but long-term concerns about inventory levels and quota adjustments could create upward pressure on prices [3] - The volatility in nickel prices is expected to continue, with key support levels identified between 144,000 and 146,000, and a cautious approach to trading is recommended [2] - Market sentiment is influenced by macroeconomic factors and funding emotions, with expectations for a potential upward movement after a period of high-level consolidation [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 1 月 27 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 供需格局弱稳，钢价延续震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需两端有所变化，建筑钢厂提产积极，螺纹产量大幅回升并至相对高位，供应压力有 所增加，关注后续累库情况。与此同时，螺纹钢需求再度走弱，高频需求指标环比减量，且继续位 于近年来同期低位，而下游也未见好转，需求料将延续季节性弱势，继续拖累钢价。目前来看，螺 纹钢产量显著回升 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soda ash futures market is in a volatile stage with a mid - term bearish view, and it is recommended to wait and see. The glass futures market is in a volatile trend, and it is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [6][29]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - The soda ash futures are in a volatile phase. Last week, the domestic soda ash market was generally stable but slightly weak. Supply was abundant, downstream demand was flat, and the market lacked upward drivers. It is expected to continue a narrow - range weak consolidation. The futures are under pressure due to high supply and weak demand, and there is no core rebound power. The weak glass market also drags down demand expectations. The mid - term view is to be bearish on rebounds, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The soda ash spot market had a narrow - range shock last week. Supply was sufficient but demand was weak, and prices were under pressure. The futures were volatile and weak, suppressed by high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, and the rebound was weak [9]. - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The soda ash market was stable but slightly weak last week, with some prices slightly loosening. The supply - demand game continued. It is expected to continue a narrow - range weak consolidation. The futures are under pressure to decline, lacking rebound power due to high supply, weak demand, and the weak downstream. The bearish view is maintained [10]. Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data includes China's weekly soda ash开工率,产量,轻质库存,重质库存, daily basis, and the weekly ammonia - soda process production cost in North China [11][14][16]. Glass Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - Overall, the glass is in a volatile trend. Last week, the domestic float glass market had a narrow - range consolidation with regional differences. The overall price fluctuation was limited. The market sentiment was generally weak, and downstream demand showed a seasonal weakening feature. The current market supply - demand pattern is stable supply and weak demand, lacking substantial positive factors. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock in the short term. It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [29]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The float glass market rose and then stabilized last week. Supply contraction initially pushed up quotes, but weak demand restricted the increase, and inventories generally decreased. The glass futures were weak and declined, with cost support and high inventory in a game, lacking positive factors, and maintaining a weak trend [32]. - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The float glass market had a narrow - range consolidation last week with regional differentiation and limited price fluctuations. Demand weakened seasonally, and the overall inventory tended to be stable. The glass futures declined weakly mainly due to weak real - estate demand and will still face inventory pressure in the future. It is expected to have a low - level shock in the short term [33]. Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data includes China's weekly float glass产量,开工率, production cost and production profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, daily basis, and weekly ending inventory [35][39][42].

1月22日，国内期市能化板块大面积飘红。其中，沥青期货主力合约开盘报3179.00元/吨，今日盘中高 位震荡运行；截至发稿，沥青主力最高触及3239.00元，下方探低3169.00元，涨幅达2.48%附近。 目前来看，沥青行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于沥青后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 南华期货（603093）表示，沥青现阶段旺季并无超预期表现。短期需要关注后续炼厂冬储情况，炼厂是 否会进一步调整价格刺激拿货，以及炼厂原料端是否充足，敏感油贴水变化情况。由于成本端原油仍存 地缘扰动，因此沥青短期相对价格上维持震荡看待，上下空间均有限。 国新国证期货指出，沥青产量有所增加，库存继续累库，但整体供应压力不大，随着天气降温，市场刚 需将趋于平淡，多转为备货需求，短期沥青价格呈现震荡运行。 东海期货分析称，油价小幅回升，沥青价格关键位置积累较多支撑后再度加仓上行。当下需求继续处于 淡季，供应端叙事比例更大，炼厂开工保持平稳，地炼开工略有下行，但国营开工走高，供应压力小幅 增加。库存方面社库小幅累积，对厂库承接去化，但总库存去化幅度有限，给到沥青一部分短期上行驱 动。但中长期沥青自身仍然较为承压 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends, resistance levels, and support levels of various futures contracts on January 21, 2026, and the trends of futures main continuous contracts in January 2026 [2]. - The report also provides macro - economic information and commodity - related information that may impact futures prices [5][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook 3.1.1 January 21, 2026 Futures Main Contracts - Stock index futures (IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, IM2603) are expected to fluctuate weakly, with specific resistance and support levels provided [2]. - Gold futures (AU2604) are expected to fluctuate strongly, with resistance at 1080.0 and 1100.0 yuan/gram, and support at 1060.1 and 1054.3 yuan/gram, and may hit a new high [2]. - Silver futures (AG2604) are expected to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation, with resistance at 23800 and 24200 yuan/kilogram, support at 22763 and 22392 yuan/kilogram, and may hit a new high [2]. - Other metal futures such as copper (CU2603), aluminum (AL2603), nickel (NI2602), tin (SN2602), and non - metal futures like lithium carbonate (LC2605), steel products, and coal products also have their respective predicted trends, resistance, and support levels [2]. 3.1.2 January 2026 Futures Main Continuous Contracts - Stock index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM) are expected to fluctuate strongly, with the IM main continuous contract likely to hit a new high [2][4]. - Gold, silver, copper, aluminum, tin futures main continuous contracts are expected to fluctuate strongly and may hit new highs, with specific resistance and support levels provided [4]. - Lithium carbonate futures main continuous contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, and steel products (RB2605, I2605) and coking coal (JM2605) futures main contracts are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [4]. 3.2 Macro Information and Trading Tips - Chinese government officials attended international meetings and held economic and trade consultations, and introduced 2026 macro - policies, including expanding domestic demand, maintaining fiscal spending, and promoting domestic investment through financial policies [5][6]. - The 1 - month LPR remained unchanged, and there were international news such as the US president's remarks on tariffs, the EU's response to US trade threats, and global bond market sell - offs [7][8]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - Related Information - On January 20, domestic commodity futures markets closed with mixed results. Lithium carbonate hit the daily limit, precious metals were strong, base metals were divided, and coking coal futures led the decline [9]. - Shanghai introduced measures to enhance the influence of non - ferrous metals in the global market, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted margin ratios and price limits for some contracts [9]. - International precious metals, oil, and base metals futures markets had different price trends on January 20, affected by factors such as trade frictions and supply expectations [9][10]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook 3.4.1 Stock Index Futures - On January 20, major stock index futures contracts (IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, IM2603) opened slightly higher, then fell back after hitting resistance, with varying degrees of decline and changes in short - term trends [12][13]. - The A - share market adjusted on January 20, with a style shift from high - valuation growth sectors to value sectors. Hong Kong stocks and US and European stock markets also closed down [14][15]. 3.4.2 Gold Futures - On January 20, the gold futures main contract (AU2604) opened slightly lower, then rose after an initial decline, hitting a new high since its listing in 2008. The main continuous contract also showed a strong upward trend [34]. - It is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in January 2026 and on January 21, 2026, and may hit new highs [34][35]. 3.4.3 Silver Futures - On January 20, the silver futures main contract (AG2604) opened slightly lower, then fell back after a rebound, with short - term upward momentum weakening. The main continuous contract showed a strong upward trend and hit a new high [38]. - It is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in January 2026 and on January 21, 2026, and may hit new highs [39]. 3.4.4 Other Futures - Copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, steel products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore), and coking coal futures all have their respective price trends on January 20 and predicted trends for January 2026 and January 21, 2026 [45][48][54][58][62][66][70][74][79].

1月20日，国内期市能化板块有涨有跌。其中，PTA期货主力合约开盘报5030.00元/吨，今日盘中高位震 荡运行；截至发稿，PTA主力最高触及5156.00元，下方探低4988.00元，涨幅达1.83%附近。 新湖期货指出，短期PTA供应收缩幅度并不大，加之需求季节性回落，逐步进入季节性累库周期。近期 PTA价格有所调整，短期关注原油波动，调整结束后仍以多头思路对待。 广州期货分析称，短期来看，PTA受PX供应恢复、下游高价抵触、终端季节性下滑三重压力叠加影 响，在累库预期下PTA期价预计在4900-5100元/吨区间震荡调整。中期来看，2026年PTA无新增产能， 低加工费下老旧高成本产能出清进程加快，行业供应收缩逻辑逐步兑现；且PX2026年上半年供需缺口 明确，成本支撑将持续强化，聚酯行业刚性需求维持，PTA供需格局将持续改善，期价重心有望逐步上 移。 目前来看，PTA行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于PTA后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 正信期货表示，地缘扰动仍存，但终端持续降负，聚酯检修范围扩大，PTA供需转为累库，且近期加工 费维持高位，供需转弱，预计短期PTA承压下行。 ...

1月16日，国内期市农副产品板块跌多涨少。其中，红枣期货主力合约开盘报9000.00元/吨，今日盘中 低位震荡运行；截至发稿，红枣主力最高触及9030.00元，下方探低8870.00元，跌幅达2.26%附近。 目前来看，红枣行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于红枣后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 中泰期货分析称，当前新季红枣发往内地的运输工作已基本结束。虽身处消费旺季，但市场走货节奏相 对平缓，价格缺乏上行动力。河北销区市场交易以加工厂自有货源为主，下游客商多按需采购，整体价 格暂稳运行。预计短期内市场将以震荡整理为主，后续需密切关注销区走货节奏与采购商心态的变化。 中辉期货表示，近期现货表现平淡，随着新作上市高峰与消费旺季到来，盘面波动增加。高库存去化仍 旧偏慢对枣价反弹仍旧施压明显，供需宽松格局下建议大方向维持偏空态度。盘面上看，短期空头走势 进一步放缓，降温旺季背景下建议关注短线反弹机会。 格林大华期货指出，当下红枣基本面可供交易信息有限，市场主要关注节前备货需求的表现。从技术层 面看，盘面在跌至前低附近后获得一定支撑，但上行压力依然明显。中长期来看，后市红枣利好因素依 然不足，盘面或难 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance levels, and support levels of various futures contracts on January 14, 2026, and the trend of the main (continuous) contracts in January 2026 [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Overview - On January 13, 2026, the domestic commodity futures market showed a mixed trend. Precious metals led the gains with Shanghai silver up 5.9%, while shipping futures led the losses with the container shipping index (European line) down 5.45%. New energy materials also had a mixed performance, with polycrystalline silicon down 4.45% and lithium carbonate up 7.44% [9]. 2. Macro - economic Information - The World Bank raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.6%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous forecast. It is expected that the US GDP growth rate will reach 2.2% in 2026, the Eurozone's economic growth rate will slow to 0.9%, and Japan's economic growth rate will slow to 0.8% [7]. - The US 2025 December budget deficit was $145 billion, a record high for the month. The US 2026 fiscal year - to - date deficit was $602 billion, compared with $711 billion in the same period of the 2025 fiscal year [8]. - The US CPI in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6%, both remaining flat compared with the previous value. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in January 2026, with a probability as high as 95% [8]. 3. Stock Index Futures - On January 13, 2026, the main stock index futures contracts such as IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, and IM2603 all showed a trend of rising and then falling. The short - term upward momentum weakened, and the downward pressure increased to some extent [12][13][14]. - It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contracts of stock index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM) will probably fluctuate strongly. On January 14, 2026, the stock index futures will fluctuate and consolidate [16][17]. 4. Precious Metal Futures - **Gold Futures**: On January 13, 2026, the main gold futures contract AU2602 rose slightly. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will probably fluctuate strongly and will hit a record high. On January 14, 2026, the main contract AU2602 will probably fluctuate strongly and may hit a record high again [36][37]. - **Silver Futures**: On January 13, 2026, the main silver futures contract AG2604 rose slightly. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will probably fluctuate strongly and will hit a record high. On January 14, 2026, the main contract AG2604 will probably fluctuate strongly and may hit a record high again [39][40]. - **Platinum Futures**: On January 13, 2026, the main platinum futures contract PT2606 fell. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will probably fluctuate strongly. On January 14, 2026, the main contract PT2606 will probably fluctuate strongly [46][47]. - **Palladium Futures**: On January 13, 2026, the main palladium futures contract PD2606 fell. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will probably fluctuate strongly. On January 14, 2026, the main contract PD2606 will probably fluctuate strongly [51]. 5. Base Metal Futures - **Copper Futures**: On January 13, 2026, the main copper futures contract CU2603 fell. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will probably fluctuate strongly and will hit a record high. On January 14, 2026, the main contract CU2603 will probably fluctuate strongly [56]. - **Aluminum Futures**: On January 13, 2026, the main aluminum futures contract AL2603 fell. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will probably fluctuate strongly and will hit a record high. On January 14, 2026, the main contract AL2603 will probably fluctuate strongly and may hit a record high again [59][60]. - **Nickel Futures**: On January 13, 2026, the main nickel futures contract NI2602 fell. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will probably have a wide - range strong fluctuation. On January 14, 2026, the main contract NI2602 will probably fluctuate strongly [66]. - **Tin Futures**: On January 13, 2026, the main tin futures contract SN2602 rose. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will probably fluctuate strongly and will hit a record high. On January 14, 2026, the main contract SN2602 will probably fluctuate strongly and may hit a record high again [69]. 6. Other Futures - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: On January 13, 2026, the main lithium carbonate futures contract LC2605 rose sharply. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will probably fluctuate strongly. On January 14, 2026, the main contract LC2605 will probably fluctuate strongly [75][76]. - **Rebar Futures**: On January 13, 2026, the main rebar futures contract RB2605 showed a slight decline. It is expected that in January 2026, the main contract RB2605 will probably fluctuate strongly. On January 14, 2026, the main contract RB2605 will probably fluctuate strongly [79]. - **Fuel Oil Futures**: On January 13, 2026, the main fuel oil futures contract FU2603 showed a slight increase. It is expected that on January 14, 2026, the main contract FU2603 will probably fluctuate strongly and will attack the resistance level and the daily limit [84].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 1 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 利多因素未退，矿价高位运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局变化不大，港存高位持续攀升，年后钢厂如期复产，矿石终端消耗低位回升，但 ...