Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis such as the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the trend of various futures on September 12, 2025, including whether they will be in a strong or weak oscillation, and provides corresponding support and resistance levels [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Forecast - **Strong Oscillation Futures**: Index futures (IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509), silver futures (AG2510), copper futures (CU2510), aluminum futures (AL2510), and polysilicon futures (PS2511) are expected to be in a strong oscillation [2][3][4]. - **Weak Oscillation Futures**: Alumina futures (AO2601), rebar futures (RB2601), hot - rolled coil futures (HC2601), coking coal futures (JM2601), glass futures (FG601), crude oil futures (SC2510), PTA futures (TA601), and PVC futures (V2601) are expected to be in a weak oscillation [3][4][7]. - **Wide - range Oscillation Futures**: Ten - year Treasury bond futures (T2512), thirty - year Treasury bond futures (TL2512), lithium carbonate futures (LC2511), and iron ore futures (I2601) are expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [3][4]. - **Oscillation and Consolidation Futures**: Gold futures (AU2510) and soda ash futures (SA601) are expected to oscillate and consolidate [3][5]. 3.2 Macro News and Trading Tips - **International Trade**: Mexico plans to raise import tariffs, and China will take necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. China and Indonesia have launched a bilateral currency settlement framework and QR code interconnection cooperation project [7]. - **Bond Market**: The yield of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds in China has declined, and the market's expectation of the central bank restarting Treasury bond trading operations has increased. The international central bank's gold reserve ratio has exceeded that of US Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996 [8][10]. - **Reform and Policy**: China will conduct a comprehensive reform pilot of factor market allocation in 10 regions. The Fourth Global Digital Trade Expo will be held in Hangzhou, and China will encourage foreign investment in the digital field. The government will also support foreign - trade enterprises to stabilize the foreign - trade market [8][9]. - **Medical and Health**: China has built the world's largest medical service system, with the basic medical insurance covering over 1.3 billion people, and the per - capita life expectancy has increased [9]. - **US Economy**: In August 2025, the US CPI was in line with expectations, and the number of initial jobless claims reached a new high since October 2021. Traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates three times by the end of the year [10]. 3.3 Futures Market Analysis and Forecast - **Index Futures**: On September 11, 2025, major index futures such as IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 generally showed a trend of opening low, then rising after a decline, with varying degrees of increase. The A - share market had a large - scale increase, with the ChiNext Index rising by 5.15% and regaining the 3000 - point mark [13][14][15]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year Treasury bond futures (T2512) and thirty - year Treasury bond futures (TL2512) showed an oscillatory trend on September 11, with the former rising slightly and the latter falling slightly [36][39]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures (AU2510) and silver futures (AG2510) had a slight decline and a slight increase respectively on September 11. Technically, gold futures still show a long - term upward trend [41][47]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper futures (CU2510), aluminum futures (AL2510), and alumina futures (AO2601) had different trends on September 11, with copper and aluminum showing a slight increase and alumina showing a weak upward trend [52][57][62]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: Crude oil futures (SC2510) rose slightly on September 11, while PTA futures (TA601) and PVC futures (V2601) had different trends, with PTA showing a weak downward pressure and PVC rising slightly [95][99][101]. - **Building Materials and Steel Futures**: Rebar futures (RB2601), hot - rolled coil futures (HC2601), iron ore futures (I2601), coking coal futures (JM2601), and glass futures (FG601) had different trends on September 11, with some showing a downward trend and some showing an upward trend [73][75][78]. - **New Energy Futures**: Polysilicon futures (PS2511) and lithium carbonate futures (LC2511) rose on September 11, with polysilicon rising more significantly [66][67]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: Soda ash futures (SA601) rose slightly on September 11 [91].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for Shanghai zinc ZN2510 is a sideways consolidation. The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc rebound in a volatile manner, with increased trading volume. On the position side, long positions slightly increased while short positions decreased, indicating a slow entry of bulls and the exit of bears. Technically, the price is below the long - term moving average with weak support, the short - term KDJ indicator is rising, and the trend indicator shows that bullish power is rising while bearish power is falling, leading to a stalemate between the two forces [2][19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The basis is - 30 with a spot price of 22,220, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - On September 11, LME zinc inventory decreased by 200 tons to 50,625 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 596 tons to 44,925 tons, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile rebound but closed below the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average pointing downwards, which is a bearish factor [2]. - The main net position is long, but long positions are decreasing, which is a bullish factor [2]. 3.2 Zinc Futures Market - On September 11, the trading volume of zinc futures reached 143,973 lots, with a trading value of 16.0042543 billion yuan, and the open interest was 222,719 lots, an increase of 970 lots [3]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - On September 11, the price of zinc concentrate in Baizhou was 16,820 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the price of zinc ingot in Aoshi was 22,220 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,730 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27,400 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [4]. 3.4 Zinc Ingot Inventory - From September 1 to September 11, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 133,300 tons to 144,000 tons [5]. 3.5 Zinc Futures Warehouse Receipts - On September 11, the total SHFE zinc warehouse receipts were 44,925 tons, an increase of 596 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipts in Guangdong increased by 595 tons, and those in Tianjin increased by 1 ton [6]. 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory - On September 11, LME zinc inventory decreased by 200 tons to 50,625 tons, and the cancellation ratio was 30.02% [7]. 3.7 Zinc Concentrate Price - On September 11, the price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in major domestic cities increased by 70 yuan/ton [8]. 3.8 Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On September 11, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from major domestic smelters increased by 90 yuan/ton [12]. 3.9 Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The planned production in June was 459,700 tons, the actual production was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production exceeded the plan by 2.63%, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production for July was 470,300 tons [14]. 3.10 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On September 11, the processing fees for 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different domestic regions ranged from 3,400 to 4,200 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 85 - 105 US dollars/dry ton [16]. 3.11 SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - For the contract zn2510, the total trading volume of members was 147,015 lots, an increase of 16,212 lots. The total long position was 68,698 lots, an increase of 138 lots, and the total short position was 65,783 lots, a decrease of 2,571 lots [18].

行业 MEG 日报 日期 2025 年 09 月 12 日 料油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 业硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 ...

Group 1: Report Information - The report is an industrial silicon daily report dated September 12, 2025, issued by the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [2] - The energy and chemical research team includes researchers for different sectors such as crude oil, PTA/MEG, industrial silicon/polysilicon, etc [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The Si2511 closed at 8740 yuan/ton, up 2.46%. The trading volume was 347,619 lots, and the open interest was 287,771 lots, with a net increase of 9,706 lots [4] - Spot prices vary by region: Sichuan 553 is 8800 yuan/ton, Yunnan 553 is 8550 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia 421 is 9400 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 is 9300 yuan/ton, and Sichuan 421 is 9600 yuan/ton [4] - The monthly output in September will exceed 400,000 tons, nearly 80,000 tons more than in June. The demand increase is mainly from the polysilicon sector, with an expected output of 125,000 tons in September, nearly 30,000 tons more than in June. The total monthly demand is 360,000 tons. The imbalance between supply and demand persists, and the market lacks inventory reduction drivers. The spot price remains stable, and the futures price is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [4] Group 4: Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The industrial silicon futures price showed a fluctuating trend. The Si2511 contract had specific closing price, trading volume, open interest and its change data [4] - **Spot Prices**: Different regions have different spot prices for different grades of industrial silicon [4] - **Future Outlook**: Forecasts on production, demand, and price trends, indicating continued supply - demand imbalance and price stability with wide - range fluctuations [4] 2. Market News - On September 11, the futures warehouse receipt volume on the GZEX was 50,093 lots, a net increase of 48 lots from the previous trading day [5] - In July 2025, China's metal silicon exports were 74,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.32% and a year - on - year increase of 36.75%. From January to July 2025, the total exports were 414,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.04% [5] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 1109.6GW, and the newly added installed capacity was 223.25GW. The newly added installed capacity in July was 11GW, a year - on - year decrease of 47.7%, the lowest in 2025 [5]

Report Overview - This is a weekly report on soybean meal and soybean oil futures from September 1st to September 5th, 2025, covering mid - term market analysis, trading strategies, and relevant data [1][2] 1. Soybean Meal Futures 1.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. The current high soybean crushing volume by oil mills ensures stable supply, while downstream feed enterprises purchase cautiously. High US soybean good - quality rates strengthen the supply - abundant pattern. However, supported by import costs and pre - festival stocking demand, and with uncertainties in fourth - quarter soybean arrivals, the futures are expected to continue the wide - range oscillation trend. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade progress [6] 1.2 Trading Strategies - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices was sideways, with a bullish bias in funds. The M2601 contract might be in an oscillatory trend in the short term, with an expected trading range of 3000 - 3250 [10] - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices remains sideways, with a bullish bias in funds. The M2601 contract may continue the oscillatory trend in the short term, with an expected trading range of 2980 - 3200 [11] 1.3 Relevant Data - The data sources include Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department, covering soybean meal weekly production, inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio [19][22][24] 2. Soybean Oil Futures 2.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The soybean oil main contract is in an oscillatory consolidation phase. The current soybean oil production is at a high level year - on - year, and the overall supply - abundant pattern persists. Market sentiment is affected by factors such as Sino - US negotiation uncertainties, Fed interest - rate cut expectations, biodiesel policies, and international crude oil and related oil prices. Overall, soybean oil futures prices are expected to mainly oscillate and consolidate. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [29] 2.2 Trading Strategies - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was in an upward channel, with a bullish bias in funds. The Y2601 contract might be in a high - level oscillatory pattern in the short term [32] - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is in a downward channel, with a strongly bullish bias in funds. The Y2601 contract may maintain an oscillatory consolidation pattern in the short term [32] 2.3 Relevant Data - The data sources include Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department, covering soybean oil weekly production, inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrivals, inventory, crushing volume, startup rate, port inventory, and Brazilian premium [42][45][47]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the document. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on August 29, 2025, including the strength or weakness of the shock, resistance levels, and support levels [2]. - The report also analyzes the market conditions of various futures on August 28, 2025, including the opening, closing, high, low prices, and changes, and provides an outlook for the August trend of some futures contracts [43]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro News and Trading Tips - The "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting High - quality Urban Development" was released, setting goals for 2030 and 2035 [8]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce carried out activities such as visiting Canada, meeting with US officials, and supporting foreign - trade enterprises [8]. - Market supervision总局 carried out comprehensive rectification of market competition order [9]. - The Central Education Work Leading Group issued a plan for the adjustment and optimization of higher - education disciplines and specialties [9]. - US economic data showed that the Q2 GDP growth rate was revised upwards, and the core PCE price index was lower than expected. The number of initial jobless claims last week was lower than expected [9]. - A lawsuit related to the independence of the Federal Reserve was filed [9]. - The euro - zone economic sentiment index declined in August, and the EU proposed legislative proposals related to tariffs [10]. 2. Commodity Futures - Related Information - On August 28, international precious - metal futures generally rose, and oil prices rebounded due to inventory decline. London base metals all rose, the RMB strengthened against the US dollar, and the US dollar index fell [11][12]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook Stock Index Futures - On August 28, the stock - index futures of IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 showed different trends of opening, rising, and falling, and the A - share market generally rose, while the Hong Kong stock market fell. The US and European stock markets had different trends [13][16][17]. - It is expected that on August 29, stock - index futures will be strongly volatile, and specific resistance and support levels are given [19]. Bond Futures - On August 28, the ten - year and thirty - year bond - futures main contracts showed a weak trend, and the central bank carried out reverse - repurchase operations, with a net investment of 163.1 billion yuan. The short - term Shibor rose [37]. - It is expected that on August 29, the ten - year and thirty - year bond - futures main contracts will be weakly and widely volatile, and specific resistance and support levels are given [38][41]. Precious - Metal Futures - On August 28, the gold and silver futures main contracts showed a rising trend. It is expected that in August 2025, the main continuous contracts of gold and silver futures will be widely volatile, and on August 29, they will be strongly volatile, with specific resistance and support levels given [43][50]. Base - Metal Futures - On August 28, the main contracts of copper, aluminum, nickel, industrial silicon, and poly - silicon futures showed different trends of rising, falling, and fluctuating. It is expected that in August 2025, the main continuous contracts of these futures will have different trends, and on August 29, specific trends and resistance and support levels are given [52][61][67]. Energy and Chemical Futures - On August 28, the main contracts of coke, glass, soda ash, crude oil, PTA, and PVC futures showed different trends. It is expected that in August 2025, the main continuous contracts of these futures will have different trends, and on August 29, specific trends and resistance and support levels are given [88][90][96]. Agricultural Futures - On August 28, the main contracts of soybean meal and natural rubber futures showed different trends. It is expected that on August 29, they will be weakly volatile, with specific resistance and support levels given [107][110].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to operate weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively [1][5] - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. With large supply pressure and off - season demand, the price center is likely to decline [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Market Trends - On Wednesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a weakly oscillatory trend, with the futures price closing down 0.92% to 2361 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a weakly oscillatory trend on Thursday [5] Market Driving Factors - The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still large, and downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in a weak supply - demand structure [5] - The decline of domestic coal futures prices and the suppression of weak industrial factors contribute to the weak trend of methanol futures [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and intraday view of rebar 2510 is oscillating weakly, and the medium - term view is oscillating. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that industrial contradictions are accumulating and steel prices are under pressure [2]. - Due to weak market sentiment, poor supply - demand pattern, and weak demand in the off - season, steel prices are under pressure. However, the recent increase in cost limits the downward space, and it is expected that steel prices will continue the weak operation trend. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term and intraday trends are oscillating weakly, the medium - term trend is oscillating. The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the accumulation of industrial contradictions and the pressure on steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment has weakened, the supply - demand pattern of rebar is poor. Supply has shrunk but the profit per ton is okay with limited production reduction space. Demand continues the seasonal weakness, high - frequency indicators are at a low level, and the weak demand restricts steel prices. Although the cost has increased recently, the downward space is limited. Overall, steel prices are expected to continue the weak operation trend [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run strongly, showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short, medium, and intraday terms [1][5] - With the weakening of previous macro - driving forces, methanol has returned to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. However, due to the slight increase in domestic coal futures prices and the improvement of macro factors, the weak industrial factors are suppressed, and the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend on Tuesday [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Time - cycle Viewpoints - Short - term (within one week): The methanol 2601 contract is expected to be volatile [1] - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The methanol 2601 contract is expected to be volatile [1] - Intraday: The methanol 2601 contract is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [1][5] Price and Market Analysis - The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still large, and downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in a weak supply - demand structure and a downward price center [5] - On the night of Monday this week, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract maintained a narrow volatile consolidation trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.00% to 2423 yuan/ton [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybean meal futures, the mid - line trend is in a wide - range oscillation. Domestic high - operating rate and high crushing volume, combined with factors such as restricted feed consumption due to pig - farming losses and pre - festival stocking demand, along with international factors like high yield expectations and planting area adjustments of US soybeans, lead to this trend. If the fourth - quarter ship purchases slow down, the center of the soybean meal futures price may gradually rise [7]. - For soybean oil futures, the mid - line trend is also in a wide - range oscillation. High domestic oil - mill operating rates increase production, but weak terminal demand and the upcoming traditional consumption season in the fourth quarter, along with the expected rise in imported soybean costs, contribute to this situation. It is recommended to wait and see [30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - The mid - line trend of the soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation. In the 33rd week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.339 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.75%, and the soybean meal inventory was 1.0147 million tons, a 1.12% increase from the previous week. Domestic high - operating rates and high crushing volume, restricted feed consumption due to pig - farming losses, pre - festival stocking demand, high yield expectations of US soybeans, and planting area adjustments all affect the price. If the fourth - quarter ship purchases slow down, the center of the soybean meal futures price may gradually rise [7]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the overall trend of the soybean meal futures price was sideways, with a strong bullish bias in funds. The M2601 contract may continue the oscillating and slightly bullish trend in the short term, with an expected operating range of 3000 - 3250. This week, the overall trend of the soybean meal futures price is still sideways, with a relatively bullish bias in funds. The M2601 contract may be in an oscillating trend in the short term, with an expected operating range of 3000 - 3250 [10][11]. Variety Diagnosis - The main force is relatively bullish with a multi - empty flow of 69.7, but the funds are flowing out significantly with a fund energy of - 68.5. The multi - empty divergence is 96.4, indicating a high risk of market reversal [15]. Relevant Data - The data sources include Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department. The relevant data involves weekly production, inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio of soybean meal [19][21][24] Soybean Oil Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - The mid - line trend of the soybean oil main contract is in a wide - range oscillation. In the 33rd week, the actual production of 125 oil mills was 444,400 tons, a 30,700 - ton increase from the previous week, and the commercial inventory in key regions was 1.1427 million tons, a 5000 - ton increase from the previous week. High domestic oil - mill operating rates increase production, but weak terminal demand and the upcoming traditional consumption season in the fourth quarter, along with the expected rise in imported soybean costs, contribute to this situation. It is recommended to wait and see [30]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the overall trend of the soybean oil futures price was in an upward channel, with a slightly bearish bias in funds. The Y2601 contract may continue to be bullish but should be aware of short - term oscillating corrections. This week, the overall trend of the soybean oil futures price is in an upward channel, with a relatively bullish bias in funds. The Y2601 contract may be in a high - level oscillating pattern in the short term [33]. Variety Diagnosis - The main force is relatively bullish with a multi - empty flow of 72.0, and the main funds are flowing out slightly with a fund energy of - 36.1. The multi - empty divergence is 92.3, indicating a high risk of market reversal [36]. Relevant Data - The data sources include Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department. The relevant data involves weekly production, inventory, basis, trading volume of soybean oil, as well as weekly arrival volume, inventory, crushing volume, operating rate of soybeans, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium [42][45][47]