Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB首席策略师Namik Immelbäck称，如果美元兑日元在选举后急剧波动并 测试160关口，可能会引发干预；而2月11日的日本假期将提供一个流动性较低的市场，从而为干预提供 良机。 "假设高市早苗在2月8日的选举中获得绝对多数席位是最大风险溢价的回归，那么美元兑日元汇 率将触及160；如果高市早苗的选举结果不佳，那么美元兑日元汇率则可能回落至151"。"日本局势的发 展在全球范围内变得越来越重要，因为日本国债市场的陡峭化/功能失调存在引发全球范围内'期限溢 价'蔓延的风险"。"这或许可以解释为什么美国财政部/ 美联储会考虑帮助干预汇率，以改变市场叙 事"。单方面干预可能收效甚微，除非美国国债收益率也呈下降趋势，或者美国财政部也决定参与干 预。若要稳定日元和日本国债市场，一个可能的解决方案是 Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB首席策略师Namik Immelbäck称，如果美元兑日元在选举后急剧波动并 测试160关口，可能会引发干预；而2月11日的日本假期将提供一个流动性较低的市场，从而为干预提供 良机。 "假设高市 ...

日本首相高市早苗在本周末提前大选的最后冲刺阶段，面临一场关键的市场考验，她希望凭借一场决定 性胜利，获得推行扩张性财政政策的授权。 这是高市早苗1月19日宣布提前大选并承诺暂停消费税后，首次发行30年期国债；而最新民调显示其领 导的自民党有望大胜，债券市场或因此持续处于紧张状态。 周二的10年期国债拍卖将更早反映投资者对日本国债的需求热度，不过该期限国债流动性更高、投资者 群体更广泛，波动通常相对较小。 日本财务省将于周四（大选投票前三日）拍卖规模约7000亿日元（合45亿美元）的30年期国债。 该期限国债对财政约束松动的担忧极度敏感，上月因投资者对高市早苗承诺暂停食品消费税持抵触态 度，该类国债遭遇重挫。 国债拍卖一直是投资者表达日本财政状况担忧的焦点，日本债务规模达GDP的230%，财政状况为发达 国家中最差。 过去五次30年期国债拍卖中，有四次的收益率在拍卖筹备阶段或结果公布后即刻飙升至历史新高。 这其中就包括10月7日的国债暴跌，彼时距离高市早苗赢得执政党自民党总裁选举、锁定首相席位仅过 去三天——高市早苗被视为财政鸽派，是前首相安倍晋三"安倍经济学"的拥护者。 国债收益率与价格呈反向变动关系。 瑞穗 ...

特朗普提名Kevin Warsh（凯文·沃什）担任下任美联储主席，引发市场对资产负债表收缩的担忧。虽然 沃什以资产负债表鹰派立场著称，但花旗认为完全重启QT（量化紧缩）的可能性不大。 花旗分析师认为，真正值得关注的是美联储SOMA投资组合的加权平均到期期限（WAM）调整——通 过将到期券种转为短期国债，美联储可以在不引发市场动荡的情况下实现资产负债表"瘦身"。这一策略 可能在2026年下半年至2027年释放约4200亿美元的再投资空间。对投资者而言，这意味着曲线将进一步 陡峭化，3年至5年期或成为最佳"避风港"。 沃什的鹰派立场：对资产负债表"动刀"的可能性 花旗判断，完全重启QT在去年回购市场波动后将面临重重阻力。更可能的操作是： 储备管理购买（RMPs）的缩减：从目前的每月400亿美元降至约100亿美元（花旗预计4月 中旬后自然降至200亿美元）。但这对宏观影响有限。 SOMA投资组合的WAM调整：将到期的美国国债券种转投短期国债。按每月300亿美元上 限计算，2026年下半年可实现约1400亿美元，2027年可达约2750亿美元。这一做法将获得美 联储内部广泛支持。 花旗在研报中指出，美联储可能将短期国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report aims to systematically construct an analytical framework for the issuance and pricing of ultra - long bonds, and comprehensively analyzes the historical evolution and theoretical framework of overseas ultra - long bonds. It first reviews the history and motives of the US, Japan, and Germany in issuing ultra - long bonds, then analyzes the supply and demand sides, introduces the Bernanke three - factor pricing model to attribute the yield fluctuations of ultra - long bonds, and finally summarizes historical experience through the review of recent yield changes [4][7][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Government's Motivation for Issuing Ultra - long Bonds - **Origin of Ultra - long Bonds**: In 1953, the US Treasury issued the first ultra - long bond to reduce the cost of frequent short - term bond issuance; in 1986, Germany issued its first ultra - long bond to extend debt duration and reduce refinancing risk; in 1999, Japan included 30 - year treasury bonds in its issuance system to diversify the bond market's maturity structure [21]. - **Motives for Issuing Ultra - long Bonds**: Overseas countries issue ultra - long bonds mainly to raise funds for structural fiscal expansion, optimize the debt structure, and meet the market demand for long - term safe assets. For example, after 2008, the US increased 30 - year bond issuance with the expansion of fiscal deficits, and Japan used ultra - long bonds to support the economy in a deflationary environment [24]. 3.2 Historical Review of Ultra - long Bond Development - **US**: The development of US ultra - long bonds follows the logic of "crisis - driven + policy linkage". During economic crises, the government increases issuance to supplement fiscal funds, and the Fed lowers interest rates and buys bonds to support the market. Yield trends are closely related to issuance scale [30]. - **Japan**: The development of Japanese ultra - long bonds is a win - win for finance and currency. It helps the government finance and reduces long - term costs, and is also a tool for the central bank to control the yield curve. Issuance scale increases during crises with central bank easing [34]. - **Germany**: German ultra - long bonds show a dynamic evolution of "demand - anchored, cycle - adapted, and function - expanded". Initially for debt maturity structure optimization, they later meet long - term expenditure needs and expand functions such as being an interest - rate benchmark and a safe - haven asset [37]. 3.3 Ultra - long Bond Pricing: Supply and Demand - **Supply Side**: Taking the US as an example, Congress confirms the fiscal budget and debt ceiling in advance, and the Treasury formulates a specific issuance plan. The issuance form includes new issuance and additional issuance. The issuance mechanism in the US, Germany, and Japan varies. The US uses a "single - price (Dutch)" auction, while Germany and Japan use a "multiple - price" auction. The proportion of long - term bond issuance is mainly determined by financing costs, term premiums, and debt management strategies [41][49][50]. - **Demand Side**: The demand for ultra - long bonds comes from three aspects. Pension funds and insurance companies have rigid asset - liability management needs; hedge funds, banks, and asset management institutions have trading and arbitrage needs; central banks buy and sell ultra - long bonds for unconventional monetary policies and financial stability. Currently, the demand for US ultra - long bonds is more diversified, with investment funds becoming the largest demanders, and the proportion of primary dealers' allocation decreasing [54][61]. 3.4 Ultra - long Bond Pricing - **Bernanke Three - factor Model**: The long - term interest rate is decomposed into inflation expectations, the expected path of short - term real interest rates, and term premiums [70]. - **Inflation Expectations**: Long - term inflation expectations fluctuate around the 2% inflation target and are affected by economic growth. When the economy grows strongly, inflation expectations rise [74][76]. - **Expected Real Short - term Interest Rates**: The short - term real interest rate is mainly determined by the benchmark interest rate. The Fed's benchmark interest rate decision considers inflation and the employment market [79]. - **Term Premiums**: In recent years, the impact of term premiums on long - term bond yields has increased. It includes factors such as liquidity premiums, credit risk premiums, growth premiums, and inflation volatility premiums. Central bank quantitative easing policies can suppress term premiums, and credit risk premiums were significant during the European debt crisis, while fiscal expansion can increase growth risk premiums [81][85][87]. 3.5 Recent Trends and Future Forecasts - **Current Trends**: In the context of the global "big fiscal" era, concerns about the debt sustainability of developed economies have led to a re - evaluation of term premiums, causing the yields of US, Japanese, and German ultra - long bonds to rise. For the US, expansionary fiscal policies and a weakened US dollar have increased term premiums; for Japan, the central bank's policy adjustment and fiscal deterioration have led to a rise in yields; for Germany, fiscal expansion has pushed up yields [91][93][95]. - **Future Forecasts**: Unless developed economies abandon the "debt - driven" development model and improve long - term productivity, overseas ultra - long bond yields may continue to rise. It is expected that by the end of 2026, the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year US Treasury bonds may reach around 4.6% and 5.1% respectively [97].

这一轮日本国债市场超级大抛售的导火索是高市早苗政府为了赢得众议院选举而承诺削减食品消费税，但并未具体说明资 金来源，这使得金融市场对日本财政纪律和政府支出预期的担忧急剧升温。在周二，一场全球瞩目的至关重要日本国债拍 卖活动中，20年期国债拍卖需求疲软，最终与高市政府庞大财政支出预期共同推动日本10年期、20年期、30年期以及40年 期国债收益率迅速飙升，其中日本30年期国债收益率一度上升26.5个基点至3.875%的历史新高点位，40年期国债收益率一 度上升27个基点至4.215%续创历史新高。 随着日本迅速迎接由日本首相高市早苗召集的突击式众议院选举，预计将出现更多不可预测和更加剧烈的全球主权国债市 场乃至包括股票市场与高收益率公司债券在内的全球金融市场价格波动。上周日本国债市场的这一场"超级大崩盘"可谓释 放出7万亿美元市场规模的日本长期存量国债对于全球金融市场的"巨大溢出风险"。根据日本财务省(MOF)的口径显示，截 至2025年9月末，日本政府长期借贷基准之下的债务存量，即日本主权国债市场规模已经超过7万亿美元大关。 就在日本国债市场上周上演令全球金融市场震惊的"超级大崩盘"仅仅几天后，全球最顶级的交 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that Japanese government bond yields have recently experienced fluctuations, with a notable decline from historical highs, as investors await the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision and potential hawkish statements from Governor Kazuo Ueda [1][2][3] - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield fell by 4 basis points to 2.24%, while the 30-year yield decreased by 10 basis points to 3.67%, reflecting a rebound after excessive selling earlier in the week [1] - UBS reports that the rise in Japanese bond yields is primarily driven by market expectations of future interest rate increases and an increase in term premiums, with the 30-year yield rising over 40 basis points since the beginning of the year [2] Group 2 - Foreign investors have significantly reduced their holdings in the Japanese bond market, nearly halving their investments as global yields rise, while the Bank of Japan's share of outstanding bonds has fallen below 50% for the first time in eight years [2] - UBS suggests that if the Bank of Japan responds hawkishly to fiscal expansion, the yield curve for 10 to 30-year bonds may flatten, potentially providing better entry points for investors after uncertainties surrounding elections and monetary policy are resolved [3] - Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank plans to double its domestic sovereign debt holdings once market yields stabilize, currently holding approximately 10.6 trillion yen (about 67 billion USD) [3]

Group 1 - UBS believes that the recent rise in Japanese government bond yields reflects market expectations for future policy rate increases and an increase in term premium, rather than just the anticipated rise in policy rates [1] - The report indicates that the rise in Japanese government bond yields is closely related to uncertainties in fiscal policy, with market expectations for long-term policy rates being difficult to gauge [4] - UBS's analysis shows that the volatility in the Japanese government bond market has not yet created a sustained spillover effect on global markets, despite a significant rise in yields [7] Group 2 - Foreign investors have significantly reduced their holdings in the Japanese government bond market, nearly halving their investments as global yields rise [8] - UBS suggests that investors may find better entry points for Japanese government bonds after the elections and the resolution of monetary policy uncertainties [12] - Overall, the report emphasizes the complexity of the Japanese government bond market under the dual influence of fiscal and monetary policies, with fiscal expansion being the main driver of rising yields [12]

投资要点： | [Table_Authors] | 王一凡(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-38031722 | | | wangyifan4@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524120001 | | | 唐元懋(分析师) | | | 0755-23976753 | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.22 欧洲抛售美债对美债有何影响 本报告导读： 美日债市联动暴跌，政治摩擦与财政叙事引爆期限溢价跳升，超长久期资产遭集中 抛售，风险外溢全球。 [Table_Report] 相关报告 财政金融促内需新政对债市有何影响 2026.01.21 躁动行情换挡，聚焦业绩成色 2026.01.20 基于银行微观数据，26 年存款重定价节奏怎么 看？ 2025.12.29 震荡巩固，蓄力反弹 2025.12.22 把握跨年行情布局时机 2025.12.15 证 券 研 究 报 告 事 件 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 债 券 研 究 [Tabl ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The current market dynamics are influenced by a shift from inflation and central bank policies to fiscal and credit concerns, particularly highlighted by the recent performance of U.S. and Japanese bonds [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - Japan's 40-year government bond yield has surpassed 4%, marking the first time in over 30 years, which has significant implications for global financial markets [2][3]. - The combination of high government debt and high interest rates in major developed economies, including the U.S. and Japan, is creating a precarious situation for fiscal sustainability [4]. - The market is increasingly worried about the astronomical interest payments on government debt, leading to three potential outcomes: fiscal tightening, continued large-scale borrowing, or central banks resorting to debt monetization [4][5]. - The recent sell-off in long-term U.S. Treasuries reflects a loss of confidence, as institutional investors like the Danish pension fund have opted to liquidate their holdings [6][8][9]. - The systemic rise in risk-free rates is negatively impacting the valuation models of all risk assets, leading to a broader market correction [11]. Additional Important Content - Gold prices have surged to historical highs, driven not by traditional inflation concerns but by fears regarding sovereign credit and the weakening of the dollar, indicating a shift towards "de-dollarization" [12][13]. - The current market environment is characterized by a transition to a new era, driven by debt cycles, geopolitical tensions, and a restructuring of monetary order [14][15]. - The exit of Japan from its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy and subsequent interest rate hikes signal a reduction in the motivation for Japanese investors to hold foreign bonds, particularly U.S. Treasuries, potentially leading to a capital outflow and further imbalance in the global bond market [17]. - The correlation between asset classes is changing, with both stocks and bonds experiencing declines, and the sources of risk are shifting from economic cycles to political decisions [18]. - Investors are advised to reassess what constitutes a "safe asset," as long-term government bonds may become a source of volatility rather than stability, emphasizing the need for assets with strong cash flow and real repayment attributes [18].

周二日本主权国债市场可谓遭遇历史罕见的大规模抛售，长期限国债收益率更是飙升至创纪录的历史最高位—— 日本40年期国债收益率在周二前所未有地升破了4%超级关口，创2007年该品种发行以来的最高水平，近日可谓屡 创历史新高。最新这轮日本国债崩盘可谓全面蔓延至全球金融市场，一些华尔街资深分析人士甚至担忧日债抛售 浪潮可能导致全球股债市场跟随日本国债崩盘，进而导致类似2024年8月初的"黑色星期一"全球股债汇超级大崩 盘，因此开始呼吁日本央行立即启动紧急债券购买操作来安抚市场。 高市政府万亿日元级别消费税减免，敢接住日债"飞刀"的投资者越来越少 随着日本大选临近，对于财政纪律趋于崩溃的浓厚担忧情绪正在日本国债以及全球股票与债券市场迅速蔓延。面 对可能出现的巨额无资金支持的日本政府减税承诺，全球投资者们正表现出极度的警惕。 日本首相高市早苗当地时间19日在记者会上表示，将于1月23日解散众议院，并于2月8日举行众议院选举。高市早 苗表示，将着手准备取消对食品征收两年的消费税，并强调消费税减免的资金问题仍在考虑中。 由于当天的国债拍卖结果疲软，加剧了人们对高市振兴计划减税的担忧，市场情绪急剧下滑——抛售压力很快形 成恶性 ...