Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This month, cotton prices fluctuated and rose. The June USDA report was bullish, but the planting area report and growth conditions were bearish, causing U.S. cotton to fluctuate monthly [6]. - In the domestic market, the decrease in cotton imports and the continuous consumption of commercial inventory led to a relatively fast de - stocking speed, supporting the futures market to fluctuate strongly. However, downstream demand remained weak, and the increase in the planting area of new - season cotton is expected to keep Zhengzhou cotton prices bottoming out at a low level [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Views - The June USDA report raised this year's exports, reducing the ending inventory by 400,000 bales to 4.4 million bales; it also lowered the next - year's harvested area and yield, with the new - year's production decreasing by 500,000 bales to 14 million bales and the ending inventory decreasing by 400,000 bales to 4.3 million bales [6]. - As of June in the U.S., cotton sowing was completed. The USDA expected the 2025 U.S. cotton area to be 10.12 million acres, higher than expected. The weather in the producing areas was generally good, and the cotton quality rate remained at a normal level. Meanwhile, the net export sales of U.S. cotton this month were relatively low [6]. - In the domestic supply side, the current commercial cotton inventory was continuously consumed, and imported cotton was scarce. Downstream demand was in the off - season, and under the situation of weak supply and demand, cotton prices were hard to improve [6]. - The new - season cotton in Xinjiang was in the full - bloom stage, and the soil moisture was acceptable. Domestic surveys showed that the national cotton area in 2025 was 45.803 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% [6]. 3.2 Market Review - As of June 30, ICE Cotton 12 closed at 68.04 cents per pound, up 0.23 points from the previous month's close, with a monthly increase of 0.34%. CF2509 closed at 13,740 yuan per ton, up 465 points from the opening, with a monthly decrease of 3.50% [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **External Market - U.S. Cotton Balance Sheet**: For the 2025/26 season, the expected harvested area was 8.19 million acres, a month - on - month decrease of 180,000 acres; the expected yield per acre was 820 pounds, a month - on - month decrease of 12 pounds; the expected ending inventory was 4.3 million bales, a month - on - month decrease of 900,000 bales [12][14]. - **External Market - U.S. Cotton Sowing Progress**: As of the week of June 22, the sowing rate was 92%, the previous week was 85%, the same period last year was 93%, and the five - year average was 95%. The cotton quality rate was 47%, the previous week was 48%, and the same period last year was 56% [12][17]. - **External Market - U.S. Cotton Exports**: As of the week of June 19, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton for the 2024/2025 season were 27,000 bales, compared with 83,000 bales in the previous week. The cumulative export sales were 9.94 million bales, accounting for 86.43% of the June USDA report [12][21]. - **Domestic Demand - Spinning Mills**: As of June 26, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 71.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.70%. New orders for spinning mills were few, and orders generally lasted about 15 days [25]. - **Domestic Spinning Mill Inventory**: As of the week of June 26, the cotton inventory of mainstream spinning mills was equivalent to 28.2 days of storage. The yarn inventory of major spinning mills was 30.8 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.98% [28]. - **Domestic Cotton Inventory**: As of June 27, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.8799 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 111,600 tons (a decrease of 3.73%). As of June 26, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 3.00% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 412,000 tons [31]. 3.4 Spread Tracking There is no specific content provided for spread tracking other than the data sources and spread types.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a narrow - range oscillation pattern this week, and the market will maintain an interval oscillation pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of high - temperature weather in cotton - producing areas on new cotton output and changes in the macro - policy aspect [3][36] - The cotton textile industry is facing dual pressures of insufficient demand and high costs, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment [11][34] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Basic Data of Domestic and Foreign Cotton Markets - **One - week Data Overview**: As of June 20, the CRB commodity price index rose to 312.53 points, a 0.85% increase from June 13. The ICE cotton futures main contract in December decreased by 1.14 cents/pound, a 1.68% decline. The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 09 closed at 13,495 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from June 13, with a cumulative decrease of 0.8 million lots in positions to 5.25 million lots [2][10][35] - **Demand - side Situation**: The cotton yarn futures market showed a high - level oscillation pattern. The downstream orders were weak, and enterprises generally adopted a de - inventory strategy. The market operating rate remained low, and small and medium - sized textile enterprises faced great operating pressure [11][34] Part 2: Domestic Market Basic Situation - **Textile Mainstream Raw Material Trends**: On June 20, the raw material price center rose compared with June 13, while the yarn price center showed mixed changes, and the foreign yarn price remained unchanged. The RMB - denominated foreign yarn price increased [15][18][22] - **Domestic Cotton Spot and Futures Prices vs. International Cotton Price Index (Tax - included)**: On June 20, the difference between the domestic cotton spot price index and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty expanded, while the difference between Zhengzhou cotton and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty narrowed [23] - **Domestic and Foreign Cotton and Yarn Price Differences**: On June 20, the domestic - foreign yarn price difference expanded, and the difference between Zhengzhou cotton and ICE cotton was 2,967 yuan/ton (without considering the trade premium) [24][27] Part 3: Zhengzhou Cotton Market Analysis - **Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: As of June 20, the total of Zhengzhou cotton registered warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 466,000 tons, a decrease from June 13 [29] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Futures - Spot Price Difference Analysis**: On June 20, the futures - spot price difference of Zhengzhou cotton expanded compared with June 13 [31] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Price Analysis**: Macroeconomically, the Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged, and China's economy continued to recover. In terms of supply, the cotton growth in Xinjiang was good, but attention should be paid to the impact of high - temperature weather. In terms of demand, it was in the off - season, and the industry faced dual pressures. Technically, the technical indicators were strong [32][33][38] Part 4: International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Export Dynamics**: From June 6 - 12, the net signing of US 2024/25 annual upland cotton increased by 38% compared with the previous week. The net signing of Pima cotton was - 431 tons. New - year contracts were also signed. As of June 10, the CFTC fund's net long position decreased by 5,999 lots compared with the previous week [41][43] - **ICE Cotton Futures Analysis**: On June 20, the ICE cotton futures main contract in December decreased by 1.14 cents/pound compared with June 13, and the technical indicators were weak [44] Part 5: Operation Suggestions - The Zhengzhou cotton price should be treated with an oscillatory view. Downstream textile enterprises can purchase raw materials in batches according to orders and consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the cost of purchasing raw cotton [46]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Weakening Consumption, Lackluster Rebound of Zhengzhou Cotton - Guoxin Futures Cotton Weekly Report" and was released on June 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Domestically, this week Zhengzhou cotton oscillated within a narrow range, and the market trend was indecisive. The basis in Xinjiang continued to strengthen, with a supply shortage in some areas. Consumption pressure remained high, with a decline in the operating rates of textile and weaving enterprises, an accumulation of finished - product inventories, and a lack of new orders. The impact of high - temperature forecasts in southern Xinjiang on cotton growth was expected to be limited. Internationally, in the short term, cotton prices were affected by oil price fluctuations due to the international situation. The war situation would continue to disrupt the market. Fundamentally, the drought index in the main U.S. cotton - producing areas was at the five - year average level and showed a slight downward trend weekly. Precipitation increased recently, and the drought index in most areas dropped to 0. There were few catalysts for U.S. cotton. China's procurement of U.S. cotton was at a standstill. Overall, there were no major fundamental contradictions, and prices might fluctuate following macro - events [52] Group 4: Cotton Market Analysis Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated within a narrow range this week, with a weekly increase of 0.04%. ICE cotton futures weakened, with a weekly decline of 1.81% [11] Spot Prices - This week, the cotton price index rose. The 3128 index increased by 59 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index increased by 37 yuan/ton [15] Cotton Import Situation - In May, 40,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons [17] Cotton Inventory Situation - In May, the commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 315,400 tons. The industrial cotton inventory was 941,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 55,200 tons [26] Downstream Inventory Situation - In May, the yarn inventory was 22.34 days, a year - on - year decrease of 5.19 days. The grey fabric inventory was 32.89 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.94 days [31] Yarn Prices - This week, yarn prices remained stable. The prices of OE 10s, Combed 32s, and Combed 40s cotton yarns were the same as last week [34] Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 161. There were 10,607 warehouse receipts and 308 valid forecasts, totaling 10,915 [38] U.S. Cotton Export Situation - According to the USDA weekly export sales report, as of June 5, the net sales of U.S. upland cotton for the current market year increased by 60,200 bales, and the net sales for the next market year were 36,100 bales [41] U.S. Weather Situation - The drought index in the main U.S. cotton - producing areas and Texas was at the five - year average level and showed a slight downward trend weekly. Recently, precipitation increased in the main producing areas, and the drought index in most areas except Texas and Arizona dropped to 0 [52] Group 5: Market Outlook - Domestically, the market was in a stalemate, with supply shortages in some areas and high consumption pressure. The impact of high - temperature forecasts on cotton growth needed further monitoring. Internationally, the market was affected by the international situation and war. Fundamentally, U.S. cotton lacked catalysts, and China's procurement was at a standstill. Overall, prices might fluctuate with macro - events [52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) oscillated and then rebounded slightly this week, influenced by external markets. The basis in Xinjiang strengthened, and textile enterprises had small profits, strongly supporting the spot market. However, consumption was weak, with no rush - to - export situation in the downstream. The operating rates of textile and weaving enterprises declined significantly, and the inventory of grey cloth costs continued to rise. The market lacked continuous upward momentum but was supported by low inventory and a strong Xinjiang basis, so the downward space was limited. In the short term, Zhengmian may remain in an oscillatory state [53]. - Internationally, the market generally lacked drivers and maintained an oscillatory trend. As of June 1st, the U.S. cotton planting rate was 66%, 2 percentage points slower than last year and lower than the five - year average of 69%. The U.S. cotton planting progress was still behind, but the lag had narrowed. Some cotton had started to bud, and the early excellent - good rate was lower year - on - year. U.S. cotton export data improved, with 316,100 bales shipped in the week ending May 29th, up 15% from the previous week and 1% from the four - week average. Overall, the short - term price space for cotton was limited [53]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) cotton futures prices oscillated this week, with a weekly increase of 0.64%. ICE cotton futures prices had a slight oscillation, with a weekly increase of 0.38% [10]. 3.1.2 Spot Prices - This week, the cotton price indices showed mixed trends. The 3128 index increased by 14 yuan/ton compared to last week, while the 2129 index decreased by 17 yuan/ton [14]. 3.1.3 Cotton Import Situation - In April, 60,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 280,000 tons [17]. 3.1.4 Cotton Inventory Situation - In April, the commercial cotton inventory was 4.1526 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 183,300 tons. The industrial cotton inventory was 954,200 tons, a year - on - year increase [26]. 3.1.5 Downstream Inventory Situation - In April, the yarn inventory was 20.8 days, a year - on - year decrease of 2.88 days. The grey cloth inventory was 30.17 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.34 days [30]. 3.1.6 Yarn Prices - This week, yarn prices declined. The price of 10 - count rotor - spun cotton yarn decreased by 80 yuan/ton compared to last week, the price of 32 - count carded cotton yarn decreased by 170 yuan/ton, and the price of 40 - count combed cotton yarn remained unchanged [35]. 3.1.7 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 229. There were 10,939 warehouse receipts and 369 valid forecasts, totaling 11,308 [39]. 3.1.8 U.S. Cotton Export Situation - As of May 29th, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton in the current year increased by 109,800 bales, and the net export sales in the next year were 39,000 bales [42][47]. 3.1.9 U.S. Weather Situation - Not elaborated in terms of its impact on the market in the provided content, only the data source is given [52]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) - The domestic market lacks continuous upward momentum but has limited downward space due to low inventory and a strong Xinjiang basis. Short - term Zhengmian may remain in an oscillatory state. The international market also lacks drivers and maintains an oscillatory trend, with the U.S. cotton planting progress still behind but the lag narrowing and export data improving [53].