1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) fluctuated more significantly this week, following the overall trend of commodities. Driven by macro - positive factors, it rose significantly on Wednesday with obvious capital inflows, but was pressured around 15,000 yuan/ton. Fundamentally, although it is the off - season, cotton procurement still has rigid demand support. The strong basis boosts Zhengmian. The yarn and cotton prices are in a linked state, and the industrial chain is relatively healthy. The expected reduction in planting area needs to be implemented step - by - step without official confirmation. Overall, Zhengmian has short - term resistance above and support below, and is expected to maintain a volatile trend [53]. - Internationally, the drought index in the main U.S. cotton - producing areas has slightly declined but remains at a relatively high level in recent years, and drought is expected to continue in the first quarter. The India - EU Free Trade Agreement has been officially signed, and India's textile export tariffs to the EU will be reduced after months of review and approval. Indian cotton prices and the quotes of the Cotton Corporation of India are stable. India has purchased about 30% of the expected production of lint cotton this season, and the auction turnover is lower than the listing volume. The yarn price in Vietnam is stable, orders are active with price - increase expectations, the yarn in Pakistan shows a strong trend, while the Indian yarn has a large bargaining space due to weak demand. Overall, there is support at the bottom of the international market, but the rebound space is limited, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend [53]. - The operation suggestion is mainly short - term trading [54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price - Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated sharply this week with a weekly decline of 0.17%. ICE cotton futures fluctuated weakly with a weekly decline of 0.97% [9]. 3.1.2 Spot Price - This week, the cotton price index rebounded. The 3128 index decreased by 307 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index decreased by 313 yuan/ton compared with last week [14]. 3.1.3 Cotton Import - In December, 180,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons [19]. 3.1.4 Cotton Inventory - In the first half of January, the commercial inventory of cotton was 5.8623 million tons. With a large amount of new cotton on the market, the market has entered an accelerated inventory - accumulation stage [24]. 3.1.5 Downstream Inventory - In December, the yarn inventory was 25.12 days, a year - on - year decrease of 3.67 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 33.76 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.33 days [29]. 3.1.6 Yarn Price - This week, yarn prices increased. The price of OE 10S棉纱 increased by 70 yuan/ton compared with last week, the price of C32S棉纱 increased by 110 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the price of JC40S棉纱 increased by 90 yuan/ton compared with last week [34]. 3.1.7 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 223. The number of warehouse receipts was 10,243, and the valid forecast was 1,072, totaling 11,315 [39]. 3.1.8 Seed Cotton Purchase - The content only shows the price data of Xinjiang seed cotton purchase, but no specific analysis or summary information [42]. 3.1.9 U.S. Cotton Exports - According to the USDA weekly export sales report, as of January 22, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton in the current year increased by 203,700 bales, and the net export sales in the next year were 15,000 bales [47]. 3.1.10 U.S. Weather - The drought in the U.S. cotton - producing areas is still at a relatively high level. The total area in drought (D1 - D4) accounts for 36.0% [50]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a volatile trend with short - term resistance above and support below. Internationally, the international cotton market is also expected to maintain a volatile trend with support at the bottom and limited rebound space [53]. - The operation suggestion is mainly short - term trading [54].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The January USDA report is neutral, and the recent trend of Zhengzhou cotton mainly depends on the domestic market. Affected by the expected reduction in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang and the better - than - expected downstream operation rate in the off - season, the price of Zhengzhou cotton rose significantly in December. However, after the price reached a high level, the short - term volatility increased. It is recommended to wait for a callback and then go long [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information**: In January, the predicted global cotton production for the 2025/26 season is 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons compared with the December prediction and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points compared with the December prediction and an increase of 0.62 percentage points compared with the previous year. The predicted US production is 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons compared with the December prediction. The export estimate remains unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points. Brazil's production estimate remains at 4.08 million tons; India's production is reduced by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; China's production is increased by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. Brazil exported 450,000 tons of raw cotton in December, an increase of 100,000 tons year - on - year and 50,000 tons month - on - month. Among them, exports to China in December were 146,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons year - on - year and 40,000 tons month - on - month. As of the week of January 8, the US current - year cotton export sales were 80,600 tons, with cumulative export sales of 1.6231 million tons, a decrease of 191,000 tons year - on - year. Among them, exports to China in that week were 13,600 tons, with cumulative exports of 85,300 tons, a decrease of 71,200 tons year - on - year. As of the week of January 16, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.6%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous week and an increase of 8.6 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.69 million tons, an increase of 380,000 tons year - on - year [9]. - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: Wait for a callback and then go long [9]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is 1323 yuan/ton, showing a strengthening trend; the Zhengzhou cotton 5 - 9 spread is - 155 yuan/ton, with little change; the spinning immediate profit is - 1251 yuan/ton, indicating a decrease in profit; the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread is 485 yuan/ton, with little change; the FC index M 1% is 12582 yuan/ton, and the FC index M sliding - scale duty is 13722 yuan/ton, with a relatively high domestic premium. The overall recommendation is to wait for a callback and then go long [10]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: For the unilateral strategy, the recommendation is to go long after a callback, driven by the reduction in the new - year planting area and good macro - expectations [11]. 2. Spread Trend Review - **Spot Price and Basis**: The report provides the trends of the China Cotton Price Index and the basis of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract from 2022 - 2026 [24][25]. - **Import Profit**: It shows the trends of the 1% tariff and sliding - scale duty internal - external price differences from 2022 - 2026 [26][27]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Monthly Spread**: It presents the trends of the Zhengzhou cotton 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 spreads from 2022 - 2026 [28][29]. - **Production and Sales Area Spread and Spinning Profit**: It shows the trends of the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread and the spinning mill's immediate profit from 2022 - 2026 [30][31]. - **External Market Spread**: It includes the trends of the US - Brazil spread and the FCindexM1% - CotlookA Index 1% tariff from 2022 - 2026 [34][35]. 3. Domestic Market Situation - **Domestic Cotton Production**: It shows the trends of China's cotton processing and inspection quantity and Xinjiang seed cotton purchase price from 2021 - 2026 [38][39]. - **Cotton Import Volume**: It presents the trends of China's monthly and annual cumulative cotton import volumes from 2020 - 2025 [40][41]. - **US Export Contract Quantity to China**: It shows the trends of the US cumulative and weekly export contract quantities to China from 2021 - 2026 [43][44]. - **Cotton Yarn Import Volume**: It presents the trends of China's monthly and annual cumulative cotton yarn import volumes from 2021 - 2026 [45][46]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: It shows the trends of the spinning mill and weaving mill operating rates from 2022 - 2026 [48][49]. - **National Sales Progress**: It presents the trends of the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City from 2021 - 2026 [51][52]. - **Cotton Inventory**: It shows the trends of China's weekly commercial cotton inventory and the monthly commercial + industrial inventory from 2021 - 2026 [53][54]. - **Spinning Mill Raw Material and Finished Product Inventory**: It presents the trends of the spinning mill's cotton and yarn inventories from 2022 - 2026 [55][56]. 4. International Market Situation - **US Planting Situation**: It shows the trends of the proportion of the US cotton - planting area without drought and the cotton good - quality rate from 2022 - 2026 [59][60]. - **US Production Situation**: It presents the trends of the US cotton bi - weekly processing volume and cumulative processing volume from 2021 - 2026 [61][62]. - **US Production and Planting Area**: It shows the trends of the US cotton production estimate and planting area from 2021 - 2026 [63][64]. - **US Export Contract Progress**: It presents the trends of the US current - year cumulative and weekly export contract quantities from 2021 - 2026 [65][66]. - **US Export Shipment Volume**: It shows the trends of the US annual cumulative and weekly export shipment volumes from 2021 - 2026 [67][68]. - **Brazil Production and Planting Area**: It presents the trends of Brazil's cotton planting area and production from 2009 - 2023 [72][73]. - **Brazil Export Volume**: It shows the trends of Brazil's cotton export volume estimate and monthly export volume from 2021 - 2025 [75][76]. - **India Production and Planting Area**: It presents the trends of India's cotton planting area, production, consumption, import and export volumes, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2021 - 2026 [79][80][81][82].

Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Fundamental Support, Cotton Prices to Fluctuate Mainly [1] Report's Core View - The fundamentals of the cotton market are relatively strong, but recent performance of commodities has been mediocre. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate around current levels in the short term. The sales progress of cotton remains rapid, and downstream stocking willingness has increased. Supported by market bullish factors, the cotton fundamentals are still strong. Affected by macro - sentiment, cotton prices have significantly corrected recently, and are expected to fluctuate slightly in a strong range in the short term [29] Group 1: International Market Analysis Market Trend - The US cotton market has few fundamental contradictions, and its price is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [8] Growth Situation - As of the week ending January 9, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.7756 million tons, accounting for 89.2% of the estimated annual US cotton production, 9% slower than the same period last year. The inspection progress of upland cotton was 89.37%, down 9% year - on - year; the inspection progress of Pima cotton was 88.6%, 20% slower year - on - year. The weekly deliverable ratio was 76.8%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 82.3%, 1.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year [8] Sales Situation - As of the week ending January 8, 2026, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 77,000 tons, a weekly increase of 247% and an 89% increase compared to the average of the previous four weeks. Among them, Vietnam signed 28,900 tons and China signed 13,000 tons. The weekly signing volume of 2026/27 US upland cotton was 2,300 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 35,400 tons, a weekly increase of 1% and an 8% increase compared to the average of the previous four weeks [8] CFTC Data - As of January 6, 2026, the net long - position ratio of ICE cotton futures funds was - 15.14% (a week - on - week increase of 0.99 percentage points, and an increase of 0.41 percentage points last week) [8] Other Countries' Situations - As of January 10, Brazil's 2025/26 cotton planting was 31.9% complete, a 0.7 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, 1.6 percentage points slower than the same period last year, and 3.6 percentage points slower than the average of the past three years. The India Cotton Association (CAI) increased its estimated production by 130,000 tons, domestic demand by 170,000 tons, and decreased exports by 50,000 tons in its December 31, 2025 report, resulting in a 10,000 - ton increase in ending stocks [8] Global Situation - According to the latest USDA January global cotton production and sales forecast, there were few changes. In December, the global total cotton production was 26 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 80,000 tons; the total consumption increased by 70,000 tons to 25.89 million tons; the ending stocks decreased by 320,000 tons to 16.22 million tons [8] Group 2: Domestic Market Analysis Market Trend - The fundamentals of the domestic cotton market are still strong, but due to the general performance of commodities recently, cotton prices are expected to fluctuate around current levels in the short term [29] Supply Side - As of the week ending January 15, the national ginning mill operating rate continued to decline to 36.71%, a month - on - month decline of 11.59%. As of January 14, 2026, the cumulative public inspection was 30,477,135 bales, totaling 6,879,745 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.03%. The cumulative public inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 6,649,109 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.36%. In December, the national commercial cotton inventory was 4.6598 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 99,600 tons [29] Demand Side - As of January 9, the cumulative sales volume of lint cotton was 4.093 million tons, at a high level in the same period over the years, an increase of 2.318 million tons compared to the average of the past four years. As of January 15, the operating load of spinning mills in mainstream areas was 64.6%, a 0.15% decrease from the previous week. As of the week ending January 8, the inventory days of cotton in spinning mills in mainstream areas was 24.59 days [29] Group 3: Futures and Option Trading Strategies Futures - Unilateral trading: It is expected that the US cotton price will likely fluctuate within a range in the short term, while the fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton are still strong. Consider building long positions on dips. Arbitrage trading: Hold off [43] Options - Hold off [42] Group 4: Weekly Data Tracking Price Difference - The report presents data and trends of the price difference between domestic and international cotton, as well as the price difference trend between September and January contracts [46][47] Mid - stream Situation - It shows the operating load of pure - cotton yarn mills, the load of all - cotton grey fabric mills, and the inventory days of yarn and grey fabric [50] Cotton Inventory - It includes the commercial inventory of cotton, the industrial inventory of cotton in spinning mills, and the reserve inventory [52] Basis - It shows the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, as well as the basis of US seven - major - market upland cotton and the spot - futures basis of cotton yarn C32S [55]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton broke through upwards this week. With the Fed's interest - rate cut and the expected reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area, Zhengzhou cotton may challenge the 14,000 yuan/ton mark despite facing upward pressure [56]. - Internationally, the market fluctuated narrowly. The USDA's monthly supply - demand report was bearish, and U.S. cotton's weekly export data was weak. Short - term U.S. cotton is expected to remain weakly volatile [56]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: Zhengzhou cotton strengthened this week with a weekly increase of 0.95%, while ICE cotton fluctuated slightly with a weekly increase of 0.01% [11]. - **Spot Prices**: This week, the cotton price index rebounded. The 3128 index rose 16 yuan/ton and the 2129 index rose 15 yuan/ton compared to last week [16]. - **Import Situation**: In October, 90,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons [21]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of the second half of November, the commercial cotton inventory was 4.6836 million tons, and the market entered an accelerated inventory accumulation stage [22]. - **Downstream Inventory**: In November, the yarn inventory was 26.33 days, a year - on - year decrease of 1.13 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 32.34 days, a year - on - year increase of 0.69 days [30]. - **Yarn Prices**: This week, yarn prices rose. The price of open - end spun 10 - count cotton yarn remained flat, while the prices of carded 32 - count and combed 40 - count cotton yarns increased by 30 yuan/ton [34]. - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: This week, the number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts plus forecasts increased by 1,062, with 2,967 warehouse receipts and 3,585 valid forecasts, totaling 6,552 [40]. - **U.S. Cotton Export**: As of November 13, the net sales of U.S. upland cotton for the current year increased by 187,600 bales, and for the next year, it was 17,600 bales [47]. - **U.S. Weather**: The total area in drought (D1 - D4) in the U.S. was 33.8%, with different drought levels having different coverage percentages [53]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) - Domestic market: Zhengzhou cotton is expected to challenge the 14,000 yuan/ton mark due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut and the expected reduction in Xinjiang's planting area, although it faces upward pressure [56]. - International market: U.S. cotton is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term due to a bearish USDA report and weak export data [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international cotton market, especially the US cotton market, is expected to continue trading in a range due to limited fundamental contradictions. The global cotton production and consumption adjustments are minor, with期末库存 remaining relatively stable [8]. - In the domestic market, cotton procurement is mostly finished. Short - term downstream demand shows little change. New cotton sales are better than in previous years, and cotton prices are expected to remain oscillating with an upward bias [29]. - For trading strategies, in the short - term, cotton is expected to oscillate. For futures, it is expected that US cotton will trade in a range, and Zhengzhou cotton will oscillate. For options, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [45][47]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: The US cotton market has limited fundamental contradictions and is expected to trade in a range. As of December 5, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.0085 million tons, accounting for 65.7% of the estimated annual output, 11% slower year - on - year. The weekly and quarterly deliverable ratios are relatively high [8]. - **US Cotton Sales**: As of the week ending November 13, 2025, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 42,600 tons, down 36% week - on - week but up 10% compared to the four - week average and 22% year - on - year. The weekly shipment volume was 25,700 tons, down 17% week - on - week, 27% compared to the four - week average, but up 1% year - on - year [8]. - **CFTC**: As of December 5, 2025, the number of unpriced contracts on the ON - CALL 2603 contract by sellers increased by 692 to 22,408, an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week. The total number of unpriced contracts by sellers in the 25/26 season increased by 727 to 40,020, equivalent to 910,000 tons, also an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week [8]. - **Brazil**: According to CONAB's December 2025/26 production forecast, the total cotton production in Brazil in 2024/25 is expected to be 4.076 million tons, remaining stable month - on - month. The 2025/26 production is expected to be 3.96 million tons, a decrease of 68,000 tons month - on - month [8]. - **India**: The CAI's report shows that as of November 30, 2025, compared with the previous month's assessment, India's 2025/26 cotton production increased by 80,000 tons, imports increased by 90,000 tons, exports increased by 20,000 tons, and domestic demand decreased by 90,000 tons, leading to a 230,000 - ton increase in ending stocks [8]. - **Global**: According to the USDA's December global cotton production and consumption forecast, the global cotton production in December was 26.08 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons month - on - month. The total consumption decreased by 60,000 tons to 25.82 million tons, and the ending stocks remained relatively stable at 16.54 million tons [8]. Domestic Market Analysis - **Supply**: As of December 10, 2025, the cumulative cotton inspection volume reached 5.084203 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.94%. As of November 28, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 4.1794 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 379,300 tons (9.98%) [29]. - **Demand**: As of December 4, 2025, the cumulative sales of lint cotton were 2.736 million tons, at a high level in the same period over the years, 1.633 million tons more than the average of the past four years. As of December 11, 2025, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 65.3%, unchanged from the previous week. The yarn inventory of spinning mills continued to increase, with inventory pressure emerging [29]. Option Trading Strategy - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money options decreased slightly. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7094, and the volume PCR was 0.8660. Both call and put option volumes decreased. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [43]. Futures Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: The supply of new cotton is abundant in the short - term, and demand orders are generally weak, with most downstream orders being small and scattered. Considering that previous negative factors have been reflected in the market, cotton is expected to oscillate in the short - term [45]. - **Strategies**: It is expected that US cotton will trade in a range, and Zhengzhou cotton will oscillate. For arbitrage, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [47]. Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal - External Price Difference**: The chart shows the historical data of the internal - external cotton price difference and the 9 - 1 spread trend of cotton futures contracts [50][51]. - **Mid - stream Situation**: Data on the operating load of pure - cotton yarn mills, full - cotton grey fabric mills, and the inventory days of yarn and grey fabric are presented [54]. - **Cotton Inventory**: Information on the historical data of national commercial cotton inventory, industrial cotton inventory of spinning mills, and state reserve inventory is provided [56]. - **Basis**: The basis data of cotton futures contracts (January, May, September) and the basis of US upland cotton are shown [59].

Report Title and Analyst Information - The report is titled "Cotton Weekly Report: New Cotton Sales are Fast, Cotton Prices are Oscillating Strongly" and is written by researcher Liu Qiannan from Galaxy Futures' Agricultural Products Research Department [1] Report's Core View - The international market expects U.S. cotton to continue to oscillate within a range, while the domestic market anticipates that cotton prices will oscillate strongly. Overall, short - term cotton prices are expected to oscillate, with the current good cotton sales providing support [8][29][45] 1. International Market Analysis U.S. Cotton Market - The U.S. cotton market has few fundamental contradictions and is expected to oscillate within a range. As of the week of November 28, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton + Pima cotton was 1.7585 million tons, accounting for 57.3% of the estimated annual U.S. cotton production, 12% slower year - on - year. The weekly deliverable ratio was 85.7%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 82%, 0.5 percentage points lower year - on - year but increasing quarter - on - quarter [8] - As of the week of October 30, 2025/26 U.S. upland cotton weekly contracts totaled 18,500 tons, a 39% weekly decrease and a 51% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks; weekly shipments were 33,200 tons, a 16% weekly decrease and a 7% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks [8] - As of November 28, the number of un - priced seller contracts on the ON - CALL 2603 contract increased by 634 to 21,716, an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week. The total number of un - priced seller contracts in the 25/26 season increased by 1001 to 39,293, equivalent to 890,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week [8] Brazil - The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics predicts that the total output of the main producing region will drop to 2.58 million tons in 2026 due to a reduction in the sown area to 1.43 million hectares, mainly because of rising cotton production costs and poor crop yields this season. The Brazilian Cotton Producers Association predicts the 2026 national total output to be 3.829 million tons [8] India - The Indian Cotton Association released its first supply - demand balance sheet for the 2025/26 season, forecasting a production of 30.5 million bales (170 kg per bale), a decrease of 740,000 bales compared to the 2024/25 season. Consumption is expected to be 30 million bales, a decrease of 1.4 million bales from the previous season. Exports are forecasted at 1.7 million bales, and imports at 4.5 million bales, indicating that India is expected to become a net importer in the 2025/26 season [8] Global - According to the latest November global cotton production and sales forecast by the USDA, the global total cotton production in November was 26.14 million tons, an increase of 520,000 tons month - on - month; total consumption increased by 11,000 tons to 25.88 million tons; ending stocks increased by 607,000 tons to 16.53 million tons [8] 2. Domestic Market Logic Analysis Supply Side - As of 24:00 on December 3, 2025, the cumulative official inspection was 20,147,916 bales, totaling 4,548,335 tons, a 16.88% year - on - year increase. The cumulative official inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 4,474,521 tons, a 18.34% year - on - year increase [29] - As of November 28, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 4.1794 million tons, an increase of 379,300 tons (9.98% increase) week - on - week. Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 3.6164 million tons, a 373,900 - ton (11.53% increase) week - on - week increase [29] Demand Side - As of November 27, the cumulative sales of lint cotton were 2.423 million tons, at a high level in the same period over the years, an increase of 1.769 million tons compared to the average of the past four years [29] - As of December 4, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 65.3%, a 0.31% decrease from the previous week. The raw material inventory decreased slightly, and the yarn inventory of spinning mills in the main areas was 30.2 days, a 0.67% weekly increase [29] Overall Outlook - The supply side has a large amount of new cotton on the market, and the short - term supply remains loose. The demand side has orders in the off - season, and the overall performance is average. Considering that the previous negative factors have been reflected in the market, and the current cotton sales are good, it is expected that the short - term cotton price will oscillate strongly [29] 3. Option Strategy - The volatility decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton yesterday was 0.7094, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.8660. The trading volume of both calls and puts decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see [43] 4. Futures Trading Strategy Trading Logic - The supply side has a large amount of new cotton on the market, and the short - term supply is loose. The demand side's orders are generally small and scattered. Considering that the previous negative factors have been reflected in the market, it is expected that short - term cotton prices will oscillate [45] Specific Strategies - Unilateral trading: It is expected that the future trend of U.S. cotton will mostly oscillate within a range, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate [47] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [47] 5. Weekly Data Tracking Mid - stream Situation - Data on the operating load of pure - cotton yarn mills, all - cotton grey fabric mills, yarn inventory days, and grey fabric inventory days are presented, reflecting the mid - stream production and inventory situation [54] Cotton Inventory - Data on national commercial cotton inventory, spinning mill industrial cotton inventory, and reserve inventory are presented, showing the overall inventory situation of the cotton market [56] Basis Spread - Data on the basis spread between cotton futures and spot, including the basis spread of cotton in January, May, and September, and the basis spread of U.S. cotton, are presented, reflecting the relationship between futures and spot prices [59]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated narrowly this week, facing significant resistance around 13,800 yuan/ton. With new cotton entering the market, commercial inventory and warehouse receipt registration have increased rapidly. Although policies are favorable and external markets have positive factors, the rapid appreciation of the RMB may impact exports. Overall, the short - term upside and downside of Zhengzhou cotton are limited, with an expected trading range of 13,600 - 14,000 yuan/ton. [53] - Internationally, the drought in the US main cotton - producing areas has improved, which is bearish for cotton prices. Export data is also negative. However, Vietnam has not significantly increased its purchases of Brazilian cotton, and the high - level shipments of US cotton to Vietnam may be related to transshipment. Overall, US cotton is under short - term upward pressure and is expected to fluctuate weakly. [53] - The operation suggestion is mainly short - term trading. [54] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated slightly this week, with a weekly decline of 0.11%. ICE cotton futures trended weakly, with a weekly decline of 1.37%. [11] 3.1.2 Spot Prices - This week's cotton price index rebounded. The 3128 index rose by 148 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the 2129 index rose by 126 yuan/ton. [16] 3.1.3 Cotton Import Situation - In October, 90,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons. [21] 3.1.4 Cotton Inventory Situation - In the first half of November, the commercial cotton inventory was 3.6397 million tons. With new cotton on the market, the market has entered the inventory accumulation stage. [25] 3.1.5 Downstream Inventory Situation - In October, the yarn inventory was 26.12 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.89 days. The grey fabric inventory was 31.97 days, a year - on - year increase of 3.74 days. [30] 3.1.6 Yarn Prices - This week, yarn prices rose. The price of OEC10S cotton yarn increased by 30 yuan/ton compared to last week, the price of C32S cotton yarn increased by 110 yuan/ton, and the price of JC40S cotton yarn increased by 90 yuan/ton. [35] 3.1.7 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 1,093. There were 2,639 warehouse receipts and 2,746 effective forecasts, totaling 5,385. [41] 3.1.8 Seed Cotton Purchase Situation - Not elaborated on specific purchase volume or trend, only shows the Xinjiang seed cotton purchase price data. [44][45] 3.1.9 US Cotton Export Situation - As of October 30, the current - year net sales of US upland cotton exports increased by 81,500 bales, and the next - year net sales were 7,900 bales. US cotton weekly contract signings declined significantly, and Vietnam reduced its signings for two consecutive weeks. [46] 3.1.10 US Weather Situation - The proportion of abnormally dry areas in the US is 21.2%, moderate drought areas 21.3%, severe drought areas 11.4%, extreme drought areas 1.9%, and exceptional drought areas 0.2%. The total drought - affected area (D1 - D4) is 34.7%. [52] 3.2后市展望 - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton has limited short - term upside and downside, with a trading range of 13,600 - 14,000 yuan/ton. [53] - Internationally, US cotton is under short - term upward pressure and is expected to fluctuate weakly. [53] - The operation suggestion is short - term trading. [54]

Report Overview - Report Date: 2025-11-25 - Report Type: Cotton (Yarn) Industry Daily Report - Researcher: Wang Cuibing - Researcher's Futures Qualification Number: F03139616 - Researcher's Futures Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0021556 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic cotton market has a marginal improvement in demand with support at the lower end, but is suppressed by increased supply at the upper end. It is expected that the cotton price will fluctuate in the future [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 13645, up 60; cotton yarn main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 20065, down 10 [2]. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions (lots): -97326, down 7854; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions (lots): -949, down 445 [2]. - Main contract open interest: cotton (daily, lots): 552401, up 486; main contract open interest: cotton yarn (daily, lots): 18640, down 3060 [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantity: cotton (daily, sheets): 2319, up 79; warehouse receipt quantity: cotton yarn (daily, sheets): 14, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index: CCIndex: 3128B (daily, yuan/ton): 14832, up 39; China Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Carded Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 20660, up 70 [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% Tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 12792, up 8; China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: Sliding Duty (daily, yuan/ton): 13852, up 9 [2]. - Arrival price: Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Carded Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 21052, down 32; Arrival price: Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Combed Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 22312, down 34 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area (annual, thousand hectares): 2838.3, up 48.3; National cotton output (annual, ten thousand tons): 616, up 54 [2]. - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B, yuan/ton): 5828, up 31; Industrial inventory: Cotton: National (monthly, ten thousand tons): 78.5, down 7.6 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton: Import quantity: Monthly value (monthly, ten thousand tons): 9, down 1; Cotton yarn: Import quantity: Monthly value (monthly, tons): 140000, up 10000 [2]. - Imported cotton profit (daily, yuan/ton): 941, up 413; Commercial inventory: Cotton: National (monthly, ten thousand tons): 293.06, up 190.89 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Inventory days: Yarn (monthly, days): 26.12, up 1.27; Inventory days: Grey cloth (monthly, days): 31.97, up 0.85 [2]. - Cloth: Output: Monthly value (monthly, billion meters): 26.2, down 1.8; Yarn: Output: Monthly value (monthly, ten thousand tons): 200.1, down 7.3 [2]. - Clothing and clothing accessories: Export amount: Monthly value (monthly, ten thousand US dollars): 11003480.43, down 1449766.57; Textile yarns, fabrics and products: Export amount: Monthly value (monthly, ten thousand US dollars): 11258418.92, down 708097.08 [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility (%): 14.99, up 9.83; Cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility (%): 14.99, up 9.83 [2]. - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility (%): 5.79, up 1.06; Cotton 60 - day historical volatility (%): 7.67, up 0.27 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of October 7, 2025, according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 70902 lots, a decrease of 1689 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 129324 lots, an increase of 6748 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 58422 lots, an increase of 8437 lots from the previous week [2]. - As of the end of October, according to the China Cotton Association, the in - stock industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 88.82 ten thousand tons, an increase of 6.1 ten thousand tons year - on - year and an increase of 4.27 ten thousand tons month - on - month [2]. - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures rose slightly on Monday. Market participants were waiting for new economic data, and the increasing expectation of a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve provided support. The ICE March cotton futures contract closed up 0.15 cents, or 0.23%, at 64.0 cents per pound [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the cotton market have few contradictions, and cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply side will see a large amount of new cotton on the market, with significant production increase in the new year but the increase may be less than expected. The demand side has average recent orders, but previous negative factors have been reflected in the market. Considering the optimistic results of recent Sino-US trade negotiations, short - term cotton prices are expected to be volatile [27][43]. Summary by Directory Part I: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: There are few changes in fundamentals, and the US cotton price is expected to oscillate within a range. As of November 7, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 963,100 tons, accounting for 30.7% of the estimated annual US cotton production, 22% slower year - on - year. The inspection progress of upland cotton and Pima cotton is slower than the same period last year. The weekly deliverable ratio is 82.6%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio is 79.5%, 2 percentage points lower year - on - year. The quarterly deliverable ratio has increased slightly month - on - month. The US cotton listing inspection is in the peak period, but the Pima cotton progress is still slow. As of September 18, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton decreased by 54% week - on - week, and the weekly shipment volume increased by 14% week - on - week [8]. - **Pakistan**: As of October 15, 2025, the cumulative new cotton listing volume in the 2025/26 season reached 588,000 tons, a 22% year - on - year increase. Textile mills purchased 471,000 tons, and the unsold new cotton was 98,000 tons [8]. - **Brazil**: The 2025/26 production forecast data released by CONAB in November shows that the total cotton production in Brazil in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 4.077 million tons, remaining stable month - on - month. The planting area is stable at 2.0861 million hectares, and the yield per mu is stable at 130.3 kg. The total cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 4.028 million tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons month - on - month. The planting area is slightly reduced to 2.1371 million hectares, and the yield per mu is stable at 125.7 kg [8]. - **India**: The Cotton Association of India released the first supply - demand balance sheet for the 2025/26 season. The production is predicted to be 30.5 million bales (170 kg per bale), a decrease of 740,000 bales compared to the 2024/25 season. The consumption is expected to be 30 million bales (a decrease of 1.4 million bales from the previous season). The export is predicted to be 1.7 million bales, and the import is predicted to be 4.5 million bales, indicating that India is expected to be a net importer in the 2025/26 season. The production in all producing areas is expected to decline, with the largest reduction in Haryana and Telangana, and increases in Punjab and Andhra Pradesh [8]. - **Global**: According to the latest September global cotton production and sales forecast by USDA, the global cotton production in September was 25.62 million tons, an increase of 230,000 tons month - on - month. China's total production increased by 218,000 tons to 7.076 million tons. The total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [8]. Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: The new cotton purchase in Xinjiang is coming to an end. As of November 10, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 98.5%. The new cotton production cost is basically fixed, and the new cotton price is expected to continue to oscillate within a range. On November 13, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 6.23 yuan/kg, and the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 6.87 yuan/kg, both unchanged from the previous day. As of November 6, the cumulative picked seed cotton converted to lint cotton nationwide was 7.082 million tons, an increase of 1.657 million tons compared to the average of the past four years [27]. - **Demand Side**: As of November 6, the cumulative sales of lint cotton were 1.22 million tons, at a high level in the same period over the years, an increase of 1.01 million tons compared to the average of the past four years. As of November 13, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 65.6%, an increase of 0.31% from the previous week. The yarn inventory of spinning mills in the main areas was 30.2 days, a weekly increase of 0.33% [27]. Option Strategy - Volatility Trend Judgment: The HV on the previous day was 3.9092, and the volatility decreased slightly compared to the previous day. - Option Strategy Recommendation: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton on the previous day was 0.7094, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.8660. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see [41]. Futures Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: It is expected that the US cotton price will oscillate within a range in the future, and the Zhengzhou cotton price is also expected to oscillate. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [45]. Part II: Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal - External Price Difference**: The chart shows the internal - external cotton price difference and the 9 - 1 spread trend [48][49]. - **Mid - end Situation**: It includes the operating load of pure - cotton yarn mills, the load of all - cotton grey fabric mills, the yarn inventory days, and the grey fabric inventory days [52]. - **Cotton Inventory**: It includes the national cotton commercial inventory, the spinning mills' cotton industrial inventory, the reserve inventory, and the remaining amount of national reserves [54]. - **Spot - Futures Basis**: It includes the basis of cotton C32S spot - Zhengzhou cotton yarn active contract, the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, and the average basis trend of US seven - major market upland cotton [57].

Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Picking Nears End, Cotton Prices to Fluctuate [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The international cotton market, especially the US cotton market, is expected to move sideways due to limited fundamental changes [8]. - The domestic cotton market is likely to oscillate slightly on the stronger side in the short - term. Although there is selling hedging pressure with new cotton hitting the market, the expected increase in production may be lower than previously thought, and the positive outcome of recent Sino - US trade negotiations has been factored into the market [25][42] Summary by Directory Part I: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: The fundamentals remain stable, and the market is expected to move sideways. As of the week ending October 31, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 732,700 tons, accounting for 23.3% of the estimated annual production, 22% slower year - on - year. The weekly and quarterly deliverable ratios are 80.7% and 78.6% respectively, with the quarterly ratio up slightly. As of September 18, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton decreased by 54%, and the weekly shipment volume increased by 14% [8]. - **Pakistan**: As of October 15, 2025, the cumulative new cotton market volume in the 2025/26 season reached 588,000 tons, a 22% year - on - year increase [8]. - **Brazil**: The IMEA maintains the 2025/26 cotton production forecast in Mato Grosso at 2.62 million tons, a 2.6% increase from the previous season. However, due to rising production costs and low lint prices, farmers' planting willingness is insufficient [8]. - **India**: The CAI's assessment of the 2024/25 cotton balance sheet remains stable compared to the previous month. The market expects the 2025/26 production to be between 5.525 and 5.61 million tons [8]. - **Global**: According to the latest September forecast by the USDA, the global cotton production in September was 25.62 million tons, an increase of 230,000 tons month - on - month; total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons; and ending stocks decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [8] Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: New cotton procurement is nearing completion, and prices are stable. The cost of new cotton is fixed, providing support. As of November 6, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 6.26 yuan/kg, and the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 6.98 yuan/kg, both unchanged from the previous day. The total number of Zhengzhou cotton registered warrants and effective forecasts was 4,281, equivalent to 171,200 tons of cotton [25]. - **Demand Side**: As of November 6, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 65.4%, a 0.3% decrease from the previous week. The spinning mills' cotton inventory was 27.20 days. Although some factories increased their procurement of new cotton, most spinning mills remained on the sidelines [25] Option Strategy - The volatility decreased slightly. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7324, and the trading volume PCR was 0.5889. It is recommended to wait and see [39] Futures Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: The US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to move sideways [42]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [42] Part II: Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal and External Price Difference**: Charts show the historical trends of the internal - external cotton price difference and the 9 - 1 price difference [45][46]. - **Mid - stream Situation**: Data on the operating load of pure cotton yarn mills, full - cotton grey fabric mills, and the inventory days of yarn and grey fabric are presented [49]. - **Cotton Inventory**: The table shows the historical data of national commercial cotton inventory, industrial cotton inventory of spinning mills, and reserve inventory [51]. - **Spot - Futures Basis**: Charts display the basis trends of cotton in January, May, and September, as well as the basis of US cotton and the basis between cotton yarn spot and Zhengzhou cotton yarn active contracts [54]