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国投电力(600886):24年税费增长限制利润表现,25年开年降本促成业绩增长
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-11 11:42
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue growth of 1.95% in 2024, with total revenue reaching 57.819 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 0.92% to 6.643 billion yuan. In Q1 2025, revenue was 13.122 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.99%, but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2.1% to 2.078 billion yuan [6][2]. - The company's operational performance is supported by a significant reduction in costs, with total operating costs decreasing by 0.75% in 2024 and a further decline of 11.79% in Q1 2025, benefiting from lower coal prices and interest rates [2][11]. - The company is focusing on cost reduction strategies to ensure performance growth despite weak revenue due to price declines and volume pressures in the energy market [11][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 57.819 billion yuan, with a net profit of 6.643 billion yuan. The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 13.122 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.078 billion yuan [6][2]. - The company’s total installed capacity reached 44.6347 million kilowatts, with clean energy accounting for over 70% of the total capacity [11]. Cost Management - The company actively reduced costs, achieving a decrease in total operating costs by 0.75% in 2024 and 11.79% in Q1 2025. Financial expenses were reduced by 14.17% [2][11]. - The average on-grid electricity price in 2024 was 0.359 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 4.01% year-on-year, influenced by changes in energy mix and pricing mechanisms [11]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see EPS of 0.92 yuan, 1.04 yuan, and 1.11 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16.45, 14.64, and 13.67 [11][6]. - The ongoing development of the Yalong River integrated water-wind-solar base is anticipated to enhance the company’s growth potential, with a total of 30 million kilowatts of hydropower capacity available for development [11].
国投电力(600886):水电高发Q1业绩稳健,火电量价短期承压
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-05-06 14:32
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a stable performance in Q1 2025, with a significant increase in hydropower generation, while thermal power faced short-term pressure due to various factors [7] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.4565 CNY per share for the fiscal year 2024, resulting in a dividend yield of 3.06% based on the stock price as of May 6, 2025 [7] - The overall revenue for 2024 was 578.19 billion CNY, with a slight year-on-year increase of 1.95%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 66.43 billion CNY, a decrease of 0.92% [7] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 13.12 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 6.99%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.08 billion CNY, an increase of 2.01% [6][7] - The company's hydropower generation in 2024 was 1040.85 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 10.49%, with Q1 2025 showing a 17.96% increase in hydropower generation [7] - The average on-grid electricity price for hydropower in 2024 was 0.291 CNY/kWh, a decrease of 3.00% year-on-year [7] - The company's thermal power generation in 2024 was 529.02 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 3.04%, with Q1 2025 showing a significant decline of 32.70% [7] - The company added 263.16 MW of new renewable energy capacity in 2024, with a total on-grid electricity generation of 111.27 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 20.24% [7] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted to 72.01 billion CNY and 76.42 billion CNY, respectively, with a new estimate for 2027 at 82.00 billion CNY [7] - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 17, 16, and 15 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7]