Group 1 - The U.S. has implemented tariffs on several trade partners, leading to a downward revision of Japan's GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 0.7%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from earlier estimates [1] - Japanese automotive companies, including Toyota, are facing significant profit reductions due to the tariffs, with an expected combined operating profit drop of approximately 2.67 trillion yen (about 130.2 billion RMB) for the 2025 fiscal year [2] - Subaru anticipates a 52.7% decrease in net profit for the 2025 fiscal year, projecting a drop to 160 billion yen (approximately 7.8 billion RMB) [2] Group 2 - Japanese electronic component manufacturers are also experiencing profit declines, with a 24% reduction in net profit to 183.9 billion yen (around 8.9 billion RMB) for the April to June 2025 period [2] - The uncertainty from U.S. tariff policies is causing Japanese companies to lower their growth expectations and reduce investments [3] - Japan's inflation remains a concern, with rising food prices and an upward revision of inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027, despite the Bank of Japan maintaining current interest rates [3] Group 3 - Japan is actively seeking to expand exports, including efforts to restore imports of Japanese agricultural products by South Korea [4] - The Japanese government plans to overhaul its rice policy starting in 2027, which may positively impact the economy if implemented effectively [4] - Toyota is advancing technological innovation with the upcoming launch of "Woven City," aimed at testing autonomous driving technologies and fostering collaboration across industries [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. has implemented tariffs on several trade partners, leading to a downward revision of Japan's GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 0.7%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from earlier estimates [1] - Japanese automotive companies, including Toyota, are facing significant profit reductions, with a projected combined operating profit decline of approximately 2.67 trillion yen (about 130.2 billion RMB) for the 2025 fiscal year [2] - Subaru anticipates a 52.7% decrease in net profit for the 2025 fiscal year, projecting a drop to 160 billion yen (approximately 7.8 billion RMB) [2] Group 2 - Japanese electronic component manufacturers reported a 24% decrease in net profit, totaling 183.9 billion yen (around 8.9 billion RMB) for the April to June 2025 period [2] - The uncertainty from U.S. tariff policies is causing Japanese companies to reduce export expectations and investment, contributing to a cautious outlook on growth [3] - The Japanese government is seeking to expand exports, including efforts to restore imports of Japanese agricultural products by South Korea [4] Group 3 - Japan's central and local government fiscal deficit for 2025 is estimated at 3.2 trillion yen (approximately 156 billion RMB), which is an improvement from the previous estimate of 4.5 trillion yen [3] - Toyota is advancing technological innovation with the upcoming launch of "Woven City," aimed at testing autonomous driving technologies and fostering collaboration with other industries [4] - The Japanese government is facing internal policy debates on how to mitigate the impacts of U.S. tariffs, control inflation, and manage interest rate adjustments [4]

Core Insights - Exchange rate fluctuations significantly impact various aspects of daily life, including overseas consumption, investment decisions, and travel plans [1][2][8] Group 1: Impact on Overseas Study and Travel - Minor differences in exchange rates can accumulate, leading to substantial losses when exchanging currency for studying abroad or traveling [3] - For those planning to study or travel abroad, current exchange rates should be monitored closely to optimize currency exchange [9][10] Group 2: Cross-Border E-commerce and Purchasing - Prices of overseas goods fluctuate in real-time with exchange rate changes, affecting cross-border e-commerce and purchasing decisions [5][8] Group 3: Financial Investments and Corporate Earnings - Exchange rate volatility influences the profitability of multinational companies, which in turn affects stock market performance and returns on foreign currency investment products [6][8] - Companies engaged in import and export activities face direct impacts on their operating costs due to exchange rate changes [7][8] Group 4: Currency Trends Analysis - The current exchange rate of the Chinese Yuan against the US Dollar shows a slight increase of 0.14% since August 1, indicating a stable outlook for the Yuan [9] - The Euro has depreciated recently due to economic weaknesses in the Eurozone, suggesting potential savings for travelers or students in Europe [10] - The Japanese Yen has appreciated slightly due to increased demand for safe-haven currencies amid global uncertainties, but caution is advised for those planning to exchange Yen [11] Group 5: Emerging Market Currency Performance - The performance of various emerging market currencies reflects their respective economic fundamentals, with the Korean Won showing significant depreciation [15] - The Malaysian Ringgit has strengthened, indicating a stable economic foundation [16] - The Russian Ruble remains supported by energy exports, while currencies like the South African Rand and Turkish Lira exhibit high volatility due to inflation and interest rate factors [17][18] Group 6: Future Outlook for the Chinese Yuan - Recent policy signals suggest that the Chinese Yuan will maintain a pattern of "two-way fluctuations and stable ranges," requiring close monitoring of policy developments for strategic adjustments [19]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent performance of gold, which has broken a previous pattern and shows bullish signals with a target range of 3420-40 [3] - Oil prices are under pressure, with a focus on the previous low levels and potential for a rebound if certain technical indicators align [4] - The US dollar is experiencing a narrowing trading range between 99.5 and 98.3, indicating a period of consolidation [5] Group 2 - The domestic gold target of 782 has been reached, with further attention on the breakout potential towards 790 [6] - Important economic events are scheduled, including Eurozone retail sales and US EIA crude oil inventory data, which may impact market movements [7]

Report Overview - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the global asset market performance on August 1, 2025, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading data [3][5][6] Global Bond Market 10 - Year Treasury Bond Yields - In major economies on August 1, 2025, the US was at 4.218%, the UK at 4.526%, France at 3.346%, etc. There were various changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change in the US was -0.172, and the one - year change was -0.067 [3] 2 - Year Treasury Bond Yields - Yields and their changes are presented for different countries. For instance, China (1Y) was at 3.940 on August 1, 2025, with a latest change of 0.080 [3] Exchange Rate Market Dollar against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies - On August 1, 2025, the exchange rate of the dollar against the Brazilian real was 5.542, with a latest change of -1.04%. There were also changes in weekly, monthly, and yearly periods [3] RMB Exchange Rates - The on - shore RMB was at 7.193, the offshore RMB at 7.194, etc. on August 1, 2025, with different changes in different time frames [3] Global Stock Index Market Major Economies' Stock Indices - As of August 1, 2025, the Dow Jones was at 6238.010, the S&P 500 at 43588.580, etc. There were different latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes. For example, the latest change in the Dow Jones was -1.60%, and the one - year change was 14.94% [3] Other Stock Indices - The report also includes data on the Russian, Japanese, and other countries' stock indices, such as the Nikkei at 40799.600 on August 1, 2025, with a latest change of -0.66% [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, etc. are provided. For example, the closing price of A - shares was 3559.95 with a -0.37% change [5] Valuation - PE (TTM) and its环比 changes are given for CSI 300, S&P 500, etc. For example, the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 13.12 with a -0.07环比 change [5] Risk Premium - The risk premium and its环比 changes are presented for some indices. For example, the 1/PE - 10 rate of the S&P 500 was -0.44 with a 0.22环比 change [5] Fund Flows - The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows for A - shares, the main board, etc. are shown. For example, the latest value of A - share fund flow was -522.29 [5] Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. are provided. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 15983.51 with a -3376.84环比 change [5] Main Contract Basis - The basis and basis ratio of IF, IH, and IC are given. For example, the basis of IF was -25.33 with a -0.62% basis ratio [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and percentage changes of T00, TF00, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of T00 was 108.435 with a 0.17% change [6] - The money market shows the R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M rates and their daily changes in basis points [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The capital rate in July continued to decline, and the capital market was relatively friendly. It is expected that the capital rate in August will likely maintain a stable and slightly loose pattern [2][6] Group 3: Summary of July Review - Most term capital rates declined in July. The operating centers of DR007 and DR014 decreased by 6bp and 8bp respectively, and those of R001, R007, and R014 decreased by 4bp, 10bp, and 12bp respectively. The deviation of DR007 from the policy rate also narrowed [2][12] - The number of days when DR007 dropped below "policy rate + 10bp" increased significantly in July, rising from 5% in previous months to 45% [2][13] - The central bank continued to support the capital market in July. The total capital injection through reverse repurchase, MLF, and outright reverse repurchase was 48.8 billion, with the net injection scale being the second - highest in the same period since 2018. The capital injection during the tax period was the highest in the same period since 2018, and a large - scale reverse repurchase was carried out after the unexpected tightening of capital rates on July 24 [2][14] - The rapid decline in the bill rediscount rate may indicate poor credit demand in July. Banks may use bill financing to increase credit scale, which reduces the consumption of excess reserves and benefits the capital market [3][19] - The yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit fluctuated. The R007 - DR007 spread reached a new low in the same period since 2019 [21] Group 4: Summary of August Outlook - The market's expectation for further loosening of the capital market in the future is not strong, but the capital rate in August may still maintain a stable and slightly loose pattern [4][6] - Whether the capital market will experience "secondary tightening" is crucial for the bond market. The current bond market adjustment is mainly driven by price increase expectations. If the capital follows and tightens, it will form an additional negative factor [4][32] - Historically, commodity price increases do not necessarily lead to synchronous increases in capital prices. There were cases in 2017, 2018, and 2021 where the building materials composite index rose while the capital rate remained flat or declined [4][33] - The current social financing and exchange rate situations are different from those in the first quarter. Social financing is likely to decline in the second half of the year, and the exchange rate pressure has significantly eased [5][39] - The PMI indicates that the current fundamentals are weaker than those in the first quarter. Since 2024, the capital rate has been more sensitive to fundamental changes. The recent decline in high - frequency fundamental signals suggests that there is no upward risk for the capital rate [5][43] - The net financing pressure of government bonds in August will increase slightly compared to July, but the overall liquidity gap will narrow. Assuming the central bank conducts equal - amount roll - overs of maturing monetary tools, the estimated excess reserve ratio in August will decline [44][47]

Report Overview - The report is the "Major Asset Morning Report" released by the macro team of the research center of Heyian Futures on August 1, 2025, presenting the performance of global asset markets [1]. Global Asset Market Performance Bond Yields - **10 - year Treasury Yields**: Yields of major economies showed different changes on July 31, 2025. For example, the US was at 4.376% with a latest change of 0.004%, a one - week change of - 0.022%, a one - month change of 0.028%, and a one - year change of 0.124%. Japan was at 3.958% with a latest change of 0.015%, a one - week change of 0.041%, a one - month change of 0.075%, and a one - year change of - 0.534% [2]. - **2 - year Treasury Yields**: The US 2 - year Treasury yield on July 31, 2025, was 3.860% with a latest change of - 0.050%, a one - week change of 0.030%, a one - month change of - 0.090%, and a one - year change of - 0.630%. Japan was at 0.817% with a latest change of - 0.006%, a one - week change of - 0.027%, a one - month change of 0.074%, and a one - year change of 0.471% [2]. Exchange Rates - **USD against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: On July 31, 2025, the exchange rate of USD against the Brazilian real was 5.600 with a latest change of 0.52%, a one - week change of 1.45%, a one - month change of 3.54%, and a one - year change of 0.26%. Against the South African rand, it was 18.218 with a latest change of 1.22%, a one - week change of 3.33%, a one - month change of 4.00%, and a one - year change of - 0.94% [2]. - **Renminbi**: The on - shore RMB was at 7.200 on July 31, 2025, with a latest change of 0.04%, a one - week change of 0.63%, a one - month change of 0.41%, and a one - year change of - 1.03%. The offshore RMB was at 7.209 with a latest change of - 0.03%, a one - week change of 0.78%, a one - month change of 0.54%, and a one - year change of - 1.10% [2]. Stock Indices - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: On July 31, 2025, the S&P 500 was at 6339.390 with a latest change of - 0.37%, a one - week change of - 0.38%, a one - month change of 0.96%, and a one - year change of 14.11%. The German DAX was at 24065.470 with a latest change of - 0.81%, a one - week change of - 0.95%, a one - month change of 0.55%, and a one - year change of 29.68% [2]. - **Emerging Economies' Stock Indices**: The Malaysian stock index was at 1513.250 on July 31, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.74%, a one - week change of - 1.76%, a one - month change of - 2.31%, and a one - year change of - 7.14%. The Australian stock index was at 8999.022 with a latest change of - 0.18%, a one - week change of 0.22%, a one - month change of 1.87%, and a one - year change of 9.63% [2]. Credit Bond Indices - Credit bond indices of different regions and levels showed various changes. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of 0.06%, a one - week change of 0.43%, a one - month change of 0.27%, and a one - year change of 5.64% [2][3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing price of A - shares was 3573.21 with a decline of 1.18%. The closing price of the CSI 300 was 4075.59 with a decline of 1.82% [4]. Valuation - The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 was 13.19 with a环比 change of - 0.20. The PE (TTM) of the S&P 500 was 26.89 with a环比 change of - 0.10 [4]. Risk Premium - The risk premium of the S&P 500 (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) was - 0.66 with a环比 change of 0.01. The risk premium of the German DAX was 2.16 with a环比 change of 0.05 [4]. Fund Flow - The latest value of the A - share fund flow was - 1635.89, and the 5 - day average was - 973.63 [4]. Trading Volume - The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 19360.35, with a环比 change of 917.56 [4]. Main Contract Premium/Discount - The basis of the IF contract was - 18.59, with a premium/discount rate of - 0.46% [4]. Treasury Futures Trading Data - The closing price of the T00 Treasury futures was 108.485 with a rise of 0.16%. The closing price of the TF00 was 105.725 with a rise of 0.08% [5]. - The R001 fund rate was 1.5634% with a daily change of - 5.00 BP. The R007 was 1.5806% with a daily change of - 3.00 BP [5].

Report on Stock Index Futures Spread Core View - Presents the latest values, historical quantiles, and daily changes of various spread indicators for stock index futures including IF, IH, IC, and IM on July 31, 2025 [1]. Summary by Category - **Futures - Spot Spread**: IF's futures - spot spread is -14.84, with a 32.30% change from the previous day and a 28.70% historical 1 - year quantile; IH's is 0.65, IC's is -99.29, and IM's is -114.28 [1]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Different inter - delivery spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented, showing their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratio**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc. are provided, along with their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [1]. Report on Bond Futures Spread Core View - Displays the latest values, changes, and historical quantiles of indicators like IRR, basis, inter - delivery spread, and cross - variety spread for bond futures on July 31, 2025 [2]. Summary by Category - **IRR**: For example, the IRR of a certain bond on July 30, 2025, is 1.5292, with a 0.0063 change from the previous day and a 21.20% historical quantile [2]. - **Basis**: TF's basis on July 30, 2025, is 0.0007, T's is 1.4179, etc. [2]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: TS, TF, T, and TL's inter - delivery spreads are presented, including their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. - **Cross - variety Spread**: Spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc. are provided, along with their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. Report on Precious Metals Futures - Spot Core View - Compares the closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metals futures, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions on July 30, 2025 [4]. Summary by Category - **Futures Closing Price**: Domestic AU2510 contract closed at 773.78 yuan/gram on July 30, 2025, with a 0.30% increase; COMEX gold closed at 3327.90 dollars/ounce, up 0.08% [4]. - **Spot Price**: London gold was at 3275.05 dollars/ounce on July 30, 2025, down 1.53%; Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 769.48 yuan/gram, up 0.30% [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is -4.30, with a -0.05 change and an 8.40% historical 1 - year quantile [4]. - **Ratio**: The ratio of COMEX gold to silver is 89.52, up 3.34% [4]. - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.38, up 0.9% [4]. - **Inventory and Position**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold increased by 7.03% to 33462 [4]. Report on Container Shipping Industry Futures - Spot Core View - Analyzes the spot quotes, container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry on July 31, 2025 [6]. Summary by Category - **Spot Quote**: The 6 - week future freight reference from Shanghai to Europe for MAERSK is 3003 dollars/FEU on July 31, 2025, down 0.06% [6]. - **Container Shipping Index**: SCFIS (European route) settled at 2316.56 on July 28, 2025, down 3.50% from July 21 [6]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: EC2602 contract closed at 1532.0 points on July 30, 2025, up 0.70%; the basis of the main contract is 802.4, down 1.15% [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply remains unchanged at 3273.16 FTEU on July 31, 2025; the port punctuality rate in Shanghai is 34.57, down 18.66% [6]. Report on Trading Calendar Core View - Lists overseas and domestic economic indicators and financial events on July 31, 2025 [7]. Summary by Category - **Overseas Data/Info**: At 2:00, the US Federal Reserve announced the interest rate decision (upper limit) and the FOMC released the interest rate resolution; at 17:00, the eurozone announced the June unemployment rate [7]. - **Domestic Data/Info**: At 9:30, China announced the July official manufacturing PMI; at 15:00, SMM announced the total social inventory of electrolytic copper [7].

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices all declined, with the S&P 500 dropping over 0.2%, the Dow Jones falling approximately 200 points with a decline exceeding 0.4%, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 0.3% [1] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields expanded their decline, with the 30-year Treasury yield reaching a new low since July 11 [1] Currency Exchange - The South Korean won maintained its upward trend against the U.S. dollar, rebounding from a daily low of 1394.87 won to a daily high of 1386.99 won [1] ETFs - Korean ETFs listed in the U.S. sustained a gain of over 1.2% [1] Trade Negotiations - U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo urged South Korea to present the best trade proposals during trade negotiations [1]

周一（7月28日），韩元兑美元最终跌0.40%，报1389.25韩元。 ...