Core Viewpoint - The South African Rand has strengthened against the US dollar for the first time since February 2023, trading below 17 Rand per dollar, following the government's adoption of a lower inflation target, suggesting that interest rates may remain high for a longer period than previously expected [1] Group 1: Economic Implications - The South African Treasury states that a lower price growth target will reduce inflation expectations and actual inflation in the long run, creating room for interest rate reductions [1] - This shift is expected to support household spending and business investment, thereby boosting economic growth [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Piotr Matys, a senior foreign exchange strategist at In Touch Capital Markets, indicates that the South African Reserve Bank may have less room to lower interest rates following the Treasury's adoption of the new lower inflation target [1] - If the trend of the South African Rand continues and the external environment remains favorable for risk assets, it could lead to further adjustments in the USD/ZAR exchange rate [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View - The report presents the performance of global asset markets on November 12, 2025, including data on bonds, currencies, stock indices, and futures transactions [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **Bond Yields**: 10 - year bond yields of major economies such as the US (4.117%), UK (4.387%), and Japan (1.685%) are reported, along with 2 - year bond yields like the US (3.592%) and UK (3.720%) [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies are given, e.g., the US dollar to Brazilian real is 5.273, and it also shows on - shore and off - shore RMB exchange rates [2]. - **Stock Indices**: It lists the latest values of major global stock indices, such as the S&P 500 (6846.610), Dow Jones Industrial Index (47927.960), and Shanghai Composite Index (4002.758) [2]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: The latest values of various credit bond indices are provided, including US investment - grade (3523.740) and high - yield (2880.940) credit bond indices [2]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are presented, with CSI 300 down 0.91% and ChiNext down 1.40% [3]. - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) and its环比 changes are given for indices like CSI 300 (14.27, - 0.09) and S&P 500 (28.46, 0.05) [3]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium and its环比 changes are shown for S&P 500 (- 0.60, 0.00) and German DAX (2.36, - 0.02) [3]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest and 5 - day average fund flows for A - shares, main board, SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are reported, with A - shares' latest fund flow at - 1048.10 [3]. - **Transaction Amount**: The latest transaction amounts and环比 changes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and related indices are given, e.g., the latest transaction amount of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 19935.86, with a环比 change of - 1808.68 [4]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis and basis percentage for IF, IH, and IC are provided, with IF's basis at - 25.37 and a basis percentage of - 0.55% [4]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and percentage changes of T2303 (108.48, - 0.01%), TF2303 (105.94, - 0.00%), T2306 (108.24, - 0.02%), and TF2306 (105.89, - 0.02%) are reported [4]. Money Market - The latest domestic money market rates (R001: 1.5361%, R007: 1.5145%, SHIBOR - 3M: 1.5800%) and their daily changes (4.00 BP, 1.00 BP, 0.00 BP) are given [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report No clear core view is presented in the given content. It mainly provides data on global asset market performance, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and trading data of stock index futures and treasury bond futures. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields vary across different economies. For example, on 2025/11/10, the US 10 - year treasury bond yield was 4.117, with a latest change of 0.019, a one - week change of 0.006, a one - month change of 0.083, and a one - year change of - 0.168 [3]. - **2 - Year Treasury Bond Yields**: Different economies also show different trends. The US 2 - year treasury bond yield on 2025/11/10 was 3.570, with a latest change of - 0.060, a one - week change of - 0.040, a one - month change of 0.090, and a one - year change of - 0.540 [3]. - **Dollar to Major Emerging Economies Currency Exchange Rates**: The exchange rates have different changes. For example, the dollar - to - Brazilian real exchange rate on 2025/11/10 was 5.301, with a latest change of - 0.62%, a one - week change of - 1.07%, a one - month change of - 3.02%, and a one - year change of - 8.41% [3]. - **Stock Indices**: Stock indices of various economies have different performances. For instance, the S&P 500 index value on 2025/11/10 was 6832.430, with a latest change of 0.51%, a one - week change of 0.31%, a one - month change of - (not provided), and a one - year change of - (not provided) [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: Different credit bond indices have different changes. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index had a one - month change of - 0.17% and a one - year change of 0.01% [3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing price of A - shares was 4018.60, with a change of 0.53%. The closing price of the CSI 300 was 4695.05, with a change of 0.35% [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE(TTM) of the CSI 300 was 14.36, with a环比 change of 0.08. The PE(TTM) of the S&P 500 was 28.41, with a环比 change of 0.44 [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium of the S&P 500 (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) was - 0.60, with a环比 change of - 0.08. The risk premium of the German DAX was 2.38, with a环比 change of - 0.08 [5]. - **Fund Flow**: The latest value of A - share fund flow was - 456.59, and the 5 - day average was - 482.23 [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 21744.54, with a环比 change of 1754.01 [5]. - **Main Contract Premium or Discount**: The basis of IF was - 23.05, with a magnitude of - 0.49%. The basis of IH was 0.14, with a magnitude of 0.00% [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Price and Change**: The closing price of T00 was 108.485, with a change of 0.00%. The closing price of TF00 was 105.940, with a change of 0.00% [6]. - **Funding Rate**: The R001 was 1.5226%, with a daily change of 5.00 BP. The R007 was 1.5039%, with a daily change of 3.00 BP [6].

Core Viewpoint - The offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) against the US dollar closed at 7.1228, showing an increase of 34 points compared to the previous Friday's close [1]. Group 1 - The trading range for the day was between 7.1272 and 7.1186 [1].

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean won appreciated by 0.5% against the US dollar, reaching an exchange rate of 1454.10 won per 1 dollar [1] Group 1 - The exchange rate movement indicates a strengthening of the South Korean currency against the US dollar [1]

Group 1: Macroeconomic and Market Overview - The "14th Five-Year Plan" draft is officially released, guiding future focus areas. Sino-US economic and trade teams reach a phased consensus in Kuala Lumpur, reducing tariff policy disturbances and boosting market risk appetite [2]. - The manufacturing PMI declines marginally, indicating weakening supply and demand, and the economy still needs policy support. Overseas, after the US interest rate cut, the focus shifts to employment and inflation during the US government shutdown [2]. - The US "small non-farm" ADP added 42,000 jobs in October, exceeding expectations, with stagnant wage growth and marginal stabilization in employment [2]. Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate - The onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1219 on November 6, up 27 points from the previous trading day [3]. - It is expected that the US dollar against the RMB spot exchange rate will operate in the range of 7.09 - 7.14 this week, with a potentially stronger overall trend. The key technical level of 7.10 is crucial for short - term exchange rate trends [4]. Group 3: Stock Index - The stock index closed up collectively in the previous trading day, with the CSI 300 index rising 1.43%. The trading volume in the two markets rebounded by 18.2906 billion yuan [4]. - Short - term stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate due to intensified external disturbances and increased sensitivity to external risks in the domestic market [5]. Group 4: Treasury Bonds - On Thursday, medium - and long - term treasury bond futures declined, while short - term bonds stabilized. The capital market was loose, with DR001 around 1.32% [5]. - Short - term treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate, and if the bond market corrects due to the rumored public fund fee new regulations, it may present a buying opportunity [6]. Group 5: Container Shipping (Europe Line) - On November 6, the container shipping index (Europe line) futures market closed down across the board, with the main contract EC2512 performing weakly. The shipping futures led the decline, with the container shipping index (Europe line) falling 3.91% [8]. - Short - term container shipping futures for the Europe line are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern, driven by the game between the expectation of Red Sea route resumption and spot demand [10]. Group 6: Precious Metals - On Thursday, precious metals continued to fluctuate and consolidate. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3984.8 per ounce, down 0.2%; SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 917.8 yuan per gram, up 0.79% [12]. - In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and investment demand growth will boost precious metal prices, but in the short - term, it is in an adjustment phase. In November, it is difficult to have strong drivers [15]. Group 7: Copper - Overnight, Comex copper closed at $4.97 per pound, up 0.19%; LME copper closed at $10687 per ton, down 0.1%; SHFE copper main contract closed at 85,690 yuan per ton, down 0.33% [16]. - When the copper price falls to around 85,000 yuan per ton, downstream enterprises' replenishment enthusiasm increases significantly, but whether orders will continue to increase needs further observation [17]. Group 8: Aluminum Industry Chain - The previous trading day, the main contract of SHFE aluminum closed at 21,665 yuan per ton, up 1.29% month - on - month; LME aluminum closed at $2843 per ton, down 0.09% month - on - month [18]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina prices are expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [20][21]. Group 9: Zinc - The previous trading day, the main contract of SHFE zinc closed at 22,675 yuan per ton. The price of zinc is expected to be strongly volatile, with sufficient bottom support in November [21]. Group 10: Tin - The main contract of SHFE tin closed at 283,400 yuan per ton in the previous trading day. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly, with a stable resistance level at 290,000 yuan [21]. Group 11: Lead - The main contract of SHFE lead closed at 17,430 yuan per ton in the previous trading day. Short - term lead prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level due to supply shortages [23]. Group 12: Black Metals - The price of rebar is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the anti - dumping investigation of hot - rolled steel sheets may put pressure on far - month contracts. Hot - rolled coil inventory is accumulating, and the de - stocking pressure is high [25]. - Iron ore prices are under pressure due to abundant supply and weak demand. There are opportunities to short at high prices after valuation repair [27][28]. - Coking coal and coke are in short supply in the spot market, and long - short spreads are strengthening. In the short term, prices may face adjustment, and in the long term, they are suitable for long positions in the black metal sector [29][30]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate due to high inventory and weak demand, with support from the cost side [30][31]. Group 13: Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with geopolitical factors as potential upward risks, and will be suppressed by fundamentals in the long term [33][34]. - LPG prices are expected to fluctuate, with unclear short - term drivers and a lack of upward momentum [35][36]. - PX - PTA prices are expected to be relatively strongly volatile. PX is expected to maintain a relatively strong position, and PTA may have support below a processing fee of 230 on the disk [37][39]. - MEG - bottle chip prices are expected to rebound slightly following the cost of coal in the short term, with an expected trading range of 3750 - 4150 [40][42]. - PP prices are expected to be weakly volatile due to a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [43][45]. - PE prices are expected to be weakly volatile due to large supply pressure and weak demand support [46][48]. - Pure benzene and styrene prices are likely to be weak, and it is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities after a rebound [49][50]. - Fuel oil prices' high - sulfur cracking is expected to be weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to taking profits. Low - sulfur fuel oil prices' fundamentals are improving [51][53]. - Asphalt prices are expected to continue to decline, and it is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm [54][55]. - Soda ash prices are expected to be limited in upward movement due to high - supply expectations and cost support. Glass prices may face downward pressure in the 01 contract but have cost support and policy expectations in the long term. Caustic soda prices may face market pressure as production recovers [56][59]. Group 14: Pulp and Related Products - Pulp and offset paper prices are expected to be relatively volatile in the short term. Pulp prices are supported by raw material price increases, and offset paper prices are supported by cost factors [60][61]. Group 15: Logs - Log prices are expected to be weakly volatile. The current main strategy is to short at high prices, and pay attention to the opportunity of shorting the 01 - 03 spread in the medium - to long - term [62][63]. Group 16: Propylene - Propylene prices are expected to remain weak due to a loose supply situation and weak terminal demand [64][65]. Group 17: Agricultural Products - Hog prices may be supported by improving demand during the peak season. Long - term strategic bullishness is possible, but short - to medium - term focus is on fundamentals [66]. - Oilseed prices' upward trend is delayed. Imported soybeans' buying sentiment is reduced, and domestic soybean meal has a high inventory. Rapeseed meal is in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter [67][68]. - Edible oil prices are waiting for opportunities after negative factors are exhausted. Palm oil has supply pressure, soybean oil has inventory pressure but cost support, and rapeseed oil supply concerns remain [69]. - Soybean No. 1 prices are recommended for short - term observation. The market has entered a bullish trend, and short positions should be avoided [71]. - Corn and starch prices show signs of upward breakthrough, but attention should be paid to the impact of the decline in the external market [72][73].

Group 1 - The US dollar index reported at 100.16, showing a slight decrease of 0.04% [1] - The exchange rate for one US dollar is approximately 7.145 Chinese yuan [1] - The offshore Chinese yuan is trading at about 7.1279 per US dollar [3] Group 2 - The exchange rate for one Australian dollar is approximately 0.6508 US dollars [5] - One euro is equivalent to about 8.1962 yuan [5] - The forecast indicates that the US dollar may continue to weaken in the fourth quarter, influenced by global economic data and monetary policy adjustments [7]

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently focused on the potential interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve, with a significant probability of rate cuts in the near future, reflecting a high level of speculation and volatility in the financial markets [1][3][9]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - There is a 55.8% probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points by January, while the probability of maintaining the current rate has dropped to 21.8% [1]. - Federal Reserve official Daly has expressed an open stance regarding the December rate decision, indicating that previous rate cuts were logically appropriate [1][3]. - The market is reacting to these expectations, with traders closely monitoring any statements or data that could influence interest rate predictions [5][11]. Group 2: Currency Market Dynamics - The strengthening of the US dollar is attributed to a combination of foreign exchange supply and demand, global demand for the dollar, and market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future actions [5][9]. - The adjustment of the Chinese yuan's midpoint rate by 18 points reflects a response to the prevailing market forces, indicating a weaker reference price [3][5]. - Market volatility has increased, with traders reacting to every piece of information, leading to wider spreads and faster transaction rhythms [7][10]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Adjustments - The market's response to interest rate speculation has led to adjustments in capital allocation, foreign exchange reserves, cross-border capital flows, and hedging demands [9][10]. - The discussions around interest rate cuts have created a divide among traders, with some interpreting probabilities as certainties, leading to increased volatility in short-term trading [11]. - The heightened trading activity has also influenced other markets, such as equities, bonds, and commodities, as investors seek hedging or arbitrage opportunities [13].

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant decline in China's GDP as a percentage of the U.S. GDP, dropping from 77% in 2021 to 62% in 2023, raising questions about the widening economic gap between the two countries [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Performance Comparison - China's GDP growth rate for Q1 2023 was 5.4%, compared to the U.S. growth rate of 1.9%, indicating that China is growing at more than double the rate of the U.S. [3]. - The decline in China's GDP percentage relative to the U.S. is attributed to fluctuations in exchange rates, with the RMB depreciating slightly against the USD, impacting the dollar conversion of China's GDP [3][6]. Group 2: GDP Calculation Methods - The U.S. GDP figures are criticized for being inflated due to the inclusion of estimated rental values for owned homes, which adds to the GDP without actual cash transactions [4]. - In contrast, China's GDP calculations are based on actual cash transactions, leading to a more conservative and accurate representation of economic performance [4]. Group 3: Economic Stability and Debt Management - The U.S. faces significant national debt exceeding $38 trillion, with interest payments alone reaching $1.4 trillion this year, highlighting potential vulnerabilities in its economic structure [6]. - China's economic growth is supported by real industrial production, with a 28% increase in industrial robot production and a dominant position in global new energy exports, indicating a solid foundation for future growth [6].

Economic Outlook - The economic confidence index for November 2025 is reported at 50.3, remaining stable compared to the previous month, indicating a steady economic outlook with a target growth rate of 5% for the year [1][4][8] - Economists predict that the external environment will remain complex and variable, emphasizing the need for domestic economic focus on restoring internal demand [1][7] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October is forecasted to be -0.1%, showing a slight recovery from the previous month's -0.3% [2][9] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to be -2.2%, slightly better than the previous month's -2.3% [2][9] Retail and Consumption - The year-on-year growth rate for social retail sales in October is predicted to be 2.7%, down from 3% in the previous month [2][10] - Factors affecting retail growth include a decline in automotive sales and a slowdown in the real estate market, despite positive trends in tourism and online consumption [11][10] Industrial Production - The industrial added value for October is expected to grow by 5.7%, a decrease from the previous month's 6.5% [2][12] - High-frequency data indicates strong production activity, particularly in steel and chemical sectors, suggesting continued robust industrial performance [12] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth is projected to be -0.8%, slightly lower than the previous month's -0.5% [2][13] - Infrastructure investment is anticipated to receive a boost from new fiscal policies, while real estate investment continues to face challenges [14][15] Trade Balance - The trade surplus for October is forecasted to be $94.26 billion, an increase from the previous month's $90.45 billion [2][16][18] - Export growth is expected to be 2.6%, while import growth is projected at 3.1%, both lower than previous figures [18] Financial Indicators - New loans for October are expected to drop to 454.91 billion yuan from 1.29 trillion yuan in September [2][19] - The total social financing amount is predicted to be 1.3 trillion yuan, down from 3.53 trillion yuan in September [20] Monetary Policy - The M2 money supply growth rate is forecasted to be 8.2%, slightly lower than the previous month's 8.4% [21] - Economists expect little change in the LPR and reserve requirement ratios in the near term, with potential for slight adjustments to stimulate domestic demand [22] Currency and Foreign Reserves - The RMB to USD exchange rate is expected to stabilize at 7.1 by the end of November [3][23] - Foreign exchange reserves are projected to remain steady at approximately $333.71 billion [24] Policy Directions - Macroeconomic policies are expected to focus on enhancing infrastructure and social welfare, with an emphasis on "investment in people" to drive sustainable economic growth [26][27][29] - The government aims to improve residents' income and consumption capacity, which is crucial for stimulating domestic demand [31][32]