作者：李笑寅，华尔街见闻 特朗普的经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）正式加入美联储担任理事。 当地时间周一晚间，特朗普提名的美联储理事人选米兰在参议院通过最终投票表决，确认出任理事一 职。这意味着他将能够赶上周二开始的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）议息会议，并拥有投票权。 此次确认投票的时间安排异常紧凑，为米兰参与FOMC会议创造了可能，但同时也带来了程序挑战。 一般来说，从参议院批准到正式宣誓就职并坐上FOMC会议桌的整个流程，通常需要数天时间。若米兰 能在周二会议开始前完成所有程序，他将创下一项历史纪录。 据《巴伦周刊》分析，自1935年《银行法》实施以来，从未有过一位美联储理事在确认后的第二天就立 即参加利率决策会议。此前的最快纪录由H. Robert Heller在1986年创下，他在周六获得确认，并参加了 接下来周二开始的会议。 目前尚不清楚米兰是否能来得及提交他的经济预测摘要，以纳入会后发布的材料中。 美联储独立性受损担忧升温 米兰的加入，正值特朗普总统公开向美联储施压之际。 特朗普周一早些时候在社交媒体Truth Social上发帖，用他给美联储主席鲍威尔起的绰号称，"'为时已 ...

今年3月，米兰曾以53票对46票的投票结果通过参议院确认，成为经济顾问委员会主席，当时没有共和 党人反对他的提名。 尽管民主党缺乏阻止提名的票数，但米兰预计将面临严厉质询，内容涉及特朗普罢免美联储理事莉萨· 库克（Lisa Cook）的行动、胁迫美联储降息的企图以及政府的其他经济政策。他还可能面临来自共和 党参议员的提问，例如路易斯安那州参议员约翰·肯尼迪（John Kennedy）。后者在美联储主席鲍威尔遭 受大量批评时曾为其辩护。 参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩（John Thune）通常会遵循白宫的优先事项推进提名投票，包括财政部长斯 科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）在内的政府官员已表示希望米兰在9月FOMC会议前获得确认。特朗普在参 议院最多可失去3张共和党选票，即使是其最具争议的提名人选也大多能通过参议院。 由共和党主导的美国参议院很可能实现特朗普政府设定的激进目标——在美联储9月16日至17日利率决 议会议前快速通过斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）的美联储理事提名确认，除非出现程序故障或意外反 对。 米兰作为特朗普的核心经济顾问，长期主张激进降息并推动改革以扩大总统对美联储的影响力 ...

Group 1 - Economists Marc Sumerlin and David Zervos have expressed interest in becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair, advocating for aggressive interest rate cuts [1][2] - President Trump has indicated he may appoint the next Fed Chair sooner than expected, narrowing the candidate list to three or four individuals [1] - Sumerlin believes that a 50 basis point rate cut is an obvious choice given the current yield structure, weak labor market, and stable inflation [2][3] Group 2 - Sumerlin emphasizes the importance of the Fed's independence, which has been questioned due to Trump's public criticism of current Chair Powell [3][4] - Zervos argues that the Fed should not be deterred by higher-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) data and should decisively ease monetary policy to prevent labor market slowdown [5][6] - Zervos supports a potential rate cut of 200 basis points, contingent on economic narratives surrounding AI and supply-side deflationary pressures [6]

Group 1 - Economist Marc Sumerlin expressed interest in becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair and believes aggressive rate cuts are appropriate at this time [1][2] - Sumerlin stated that a reduction of 50 basis points in the key interest rate is a straightforward decision given the current yield structure, weak labor market, and stable inflation [1] - The range of candidates to succeed current Fed Chair Jerome Powell is broad, with Sumerlin's stance on interest rates aligning with President Trump's push for monetary easing [1] Group 2 - Sumerlin confirmed that he was contacted by the White House last week and mentioned his close relationship with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is playing a key role in selecting the next chair [2] - He emphasized the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence, especially in light of President Trump's unprecedented public criticism of Powell and the FOMC [2] - Other candidates for the position include current board member Michelle Bowman, Christopher Waller, NEC Director Kevin Hassett, former board member Kevin Warsh, and about six other candidates [2]

机构：激进降息或致美联储声誉受损 本次会议料将重申"耐心" 金十数据7月30日讯，MFS投资管理公司董事总经理Benoit Anne表示，美联储目前处于滞后状态。"我 们都相信未来还会有更多降息，但具体何时开始，目前尚不明确，"他表示。他指出，当前围绕政治干 预和美联储独立性的争议不断，给决策环境带来了严重干扰。他警告称："如果美联储在未来几个月内 贸然采取激进的降息举措，可能会带来一定的声誉风险。"鉴于此，预计美联储将在FOMC会议上格外 强调其"保持耐心"的立场，重申审慎决策的态度。 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is pressuring the Federal Reserve to implement a significant interest rate cut of 3 percentage points, which contrasts sharply with current market expectations and the economic fundamentals of the U.S. [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership Changes - The terms of two key Federal Reserve positions are set to expire, providing Trump an opportunity to reshape the leadership and potentially implement aggressive easing policies [1] - If Trump wins the 2024 election, he could nominate successors that would allow him to influence four out of seven board members, creating a de facto majority [1] Group 2: Current Economic Conditions - Despite cooling inflation and slowing job growth, the Federal Reserve maintains the benchmark interest rate between 4.25% and 4.50% [1] - Fed Chair Powell emphasizes the need for more time to assess the full impact of tariff policies and fiscal measures on the economy [1] Group 3: Diverging Views on Interest Rate Cuts - Some Fed governors appointed by Trump are beginning to advocate for easing policies, with Governor Christopher Waller suggesting that the labor market's weakness is masked by surface data [2] - Market expectations are more conservative, with investors anticipating two rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of the year, aligning with the Fed's own projections [2] Group 4: Risks of Aggressive Easing - Trump's call for a 3 percentage point cut is widely viewed as unrealistic and potentially dangerous, given that inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target [2] - Nobel laureate Paul Krugman warns that Trump's approach to monetary policy resembles that of Turkey's President Erdogan, which led to severe inflation and a cycle of emergency rate hikes [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that silver prices are expected to continue fluctuating due to various market factors, including the strength of the US dollar and recent employment data [1][2][3] - The US dollar index was trading around 97.80, with silver opening at $36.99 per ounce and currently trading at approximately $37.10 per ounce [1] - On July 10, the US dollar index rose by 0.10% to close at 97.59, while silver increased by 1.73% to $37.00 per ounce, alongside gains in other precious metals such as gold and platinum [1][2] Group 2 - The recent tariff announcements by the Trump administration have created a complex environment for silver prices, with potential exemptions for certain goods under the USMCA, but also significant punitive tariffs that could reach a cumulative rate of 60% on specific products [2] - Strong US employment data, with initial jobless claims hitting a seven-week low, has diminished market expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, further impacting silver's appeal [2] - Technical analysis suggests that silver may retreat to a support level of $36.85 per ounce, with a resistance level at $37.29, indicating a potential continuation of a consolidation pattern if upward momentum is insufficient [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential appointment of a "shadow chairman" by Trump to oversee the Federal Reserve, reflecting tensions between the White House and the central bank regarding monetary policy and interest rates [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - Current inflation slowdown and a weakening labor market are typically sufficient reasons for interest rate cuts, but the Federal Reserve remains cautious due to ongoing inflation concerns [1]. - Trump's potential appointment of a "shadow chairman" aims to influence the Federal Reserve's decisions without directly attempting to dismiss Powell [1]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) requires seven votes for policy changes, making it challenging to find support for aggressive rate cuts among current members [1]. Group 2: Candidates for Federal Reserve Chair - The list of potential candidates for the Federal Reserve chair has narrowed, with Trump expected to announce his preferences soon [3]. - Key candidates include Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, Scott Bessent, and Kevin Hassett, each with varying degrees of favorability towards aggressive rate cuts [3][5]. - Paul Tudor Jones suggests that Trump will likely choose a highly dovish candidate to reduce interest costs amid rising budget deficits [3]. Group 3: Economic Context - The U.S. budget deficit is projected to reach $2 trillion by 2025, exceeding 6% of GDP, with debt financing costs estimated at $1.2 trillion this year [4]. - Lowering interest rates is seen as a straightforward method for the Trump administration to alleviate some of the financial burdens associated with high debt servicing costs [4]. Group 4: Candidate Evaluations - Each potential candidate has strengths and weaknesses; for instance, Warsh is known for his independence but leans hawkish on inflation [5][6]. - Bessent is gaining popularity due to his market credibility but lacks monetary policy experience and may be viewed as too close to the Trump administration [5]. - Waller's recent comments on potential rate cuts may endear him to Trump, but his past support for rate cuts before elections could be a liability [6].