Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market rebounded with shrinking volume, and the current market is in a phase of rapid rotation, increasing the difficulty of operation. The overall adjustment is not sufficient. In the short term, stock index futures can be used for hedging, and the market will continue to rise after the adjustment is completed [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In terms of Sino-foreign relations, US Treasury Secretary Besent said that if China continues to block rare earth exports, the US may impose additional tariffs on China. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that dialogue and cooperation are the correct ways, and threats and pressure do not help solve problems. China and the EU held export control dialogue consultations in Brussels, agreeing to maintain communication to promote the stability and smoothness of the industrial and supply chains. China decided to extend the visa-free policy for 45 countries including France and Germany until December 31, 2026, include Sweden in the visa-free list until December 31 next year, and resume group tours for Chinese citizens to Canada [1]. - In the spot market, the three major A-share indexes rebounded after hitting bottom. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55% to close at 3976.52 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.29%. Most sector indexes rose, with media, coal, petroleum and petrochemical, and steel industries leading the gains, while non-ferrous metals and household appliances industries leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2 trillion yuan. Overseas, Federal Reserve Governor Milan called for more aggressive interest rate cuts, saying that the Fed's policy is too tight. The longer the policy remains restrictive, the greater the risk of economic downturn. Milan reiterated that the neutral policy interest rate is much lower than the current level and should be achieved through a series of 50 - basis - point interest rate cuts. The three major US stock indexes closed mixed, with the Nasdaq rising 0.46% to 23834.72 points [2]. - In the futures market, the basis of IF, IH, and IC declined. There was a divergence in trading volume and open interest. The trading volume of stock index futures decreased, and only the open interest of IM increased [2]. Strategy - The market rebounded with shrinking volume. The current market is in a rapid rotation phase, and the overall adjustment is insufficient. In the short term, stock index futures can be used for hedging, and the market will continue to rise after the adjustment is completed [3]. Charts - **Macro - economic Charts**: Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6]. - **Spot Market Tracking Charts**: The table shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on November 3, 2025. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.95%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.29%, etc. [12]. - **Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts**: The table shows the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures. The trading volume of IF, IH, IC decreased, and only the open interest of IM increased. Another table shows the basis of stock index futures for different contracts, and the basis of IF, IH, IC declined. There is also a table showing the inter - period spreads of stock index futures [12][15][38].

Core Viewpoint - The current U.S. government shutdown is causing a critical data supply disruption, intensifying the debate within the Federal Reserve regarding the extent of interest rate cuts needed [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Debate - There is a division within the Federal Reserve between those wary of inflation resurgence and those concerned about the pressure on the job market, leading to stark contrasts in monetary policy adjustment paths [3] - New Fed Governor Milan consistently advocates for "aggressive rate cuts," emphasizing the need to return interest rates to "neutral levels" as soon as possible [3] - Milan believes that the current neutral interest rate has significantly decreased compared to a year ago, indicating that the monetary policy is more restrictive now than it was a few quarters ago [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Policy Implications - Milan warns that while the economy appears stable, the risks of economic weakening are accumulating due to the effects of restrictive policies, necessitating timely interest rate adjustments to prevent potential risks from materializing [3] - During the September 17 Fed meeting, the decision-makers projected two rate cuts in 2025, but Milan opposed a mere 25 basis point cut, arguing for a more substantial reduction [3] - Milan has repeatedly called for larger rate cuts, even suggesting the need for five cuts within this year [3] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Constraints - Fed official Schmidt stated that current interest rates only "slightly restrict" the economy, which he views as "just right," emphasizing that inflation remains the core consideration for monetary policy [4] - Schmidt pointed out that as long as inflation exceeds targets, monetary policy must continue to suppress demand growth to create space for supply recovery and alleviate price pressures [4] - Recent price increases in durable goods and services, such as landscaping and electricity, have exceeded the Fed's 2% inflation target, with service prices rising by 3.5% in recent months [4] Group 4: Data Availability and Decision-Making - Milan expressed concerns that private sector data cannot adequately replace official government data, highlighting the lack of essential data for monetary policy formulation during the government shutdown [4] - Despite the data challenges, Milan remains optimistic that sufficient data will be available to support the Fed's next interest rate decision during the meeting on October 28-29 [4]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran advocates for a more aggressive interest rate cut path, believing significant changes have occurred in the U.S. economy under the Trump administration [1] - Miran states that the Federal Reserve has ample room to cut rates, as it is still far from the zero lower bound, but emphasizes that his views on monetary policy do not differ greatly from other officials [1] - In an interview, Miran expressed that if monetary policy deviates from the intended path, adjustments should be made swiftly, indicating that maintaining the current policy for an extended period could lead to issues [1] Group 2 - The U.S. government's latest employment report was delayed due to Congress's failure to reach a budget agreement, but Miran is not concerned as there is still time before the next Federal Reserve meeting at the end of October [2] - During the September decision, while other officials agreed to a 25 basis point rate cut, Miran voted against it, advocating for a 50 basis point cut, suggesting a more aggressive dovish stance that may distance him from most decision-makers [2] - Miran believes that the current financial conditions are not entirely accommodative, citing that housing finance remains relatively tight, despite concerns that aggressive rate cuts could further inflate asset prices in a volatile financial market [2]

Core Viewpoint - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers criticized Stephen Moore's inaugural speech as a Federal Reserve governor, stating it lacked a solid analytical basis for advocating significant interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Criticism of Federal Reserve Speech - Summers described Moore's speech as one of the least analytical he has ever heard from a Federal Reserve governor or at the New York Economic Club [1] - He expressed that if this is the best argument for aggressive rate cuts promoted by former President Trump, it is even weaker than he previously thought [1] Group 2: Background on Stephen Moore - Moore joined the Federal Reserve prior to the interest rate decision on September 17, having previously served as Trump's chief economist [1] - In his speech, Moore discussed the concept of neutral interest rates, suggesting that Trump's policies have lowered the neutral rate, making the current monetary stance of the Federal Reserve too tight [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent comments by new Federal Reserve Board member Stephen Milan have sparked significant interest due to his unconventional stance on monetary policy, advocating for aggressive interest rate cuts to align with perceived economic realities [1][3]. Group 1: Stephen Milan's Position - Milan argues that the current benchmark interest rates are disconnected from actual economic conditions, suggesting a need for "extraordinary" rate cuts to quickly adjust policy [3]. - His theory is based on structural changes in the economy, including trade, labor markets, taxation, and regulation, which he believes have lowered the necessary interest rates to prevent overheating [3]. - He warns that the current level of policy tightening is severely underestimated, and failing to implement aggressive rate cuts could threaten economic health [3]. Group 2: Reactions from Economists - Milan's views have faced criticism from Wall Street, with JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli highlighting significant flaws in his arguments, claiming they lack sufficient evidence and persuasiveness [3]. - Renaissance Macro Research's Neil Dutta acknowledges that the neutral interest rate may indeed be lower than the Fed's current estimates, but he questions Milan's extreme position, suggesting that if his theory were correct, the economy and financial markets would have reacted more dramatically [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - Other Federal Reserve members appear cautious, with most maintaining a reserved stance on further easing despite a recent rate cut [4]. - St. Louis Fed President emphasizes limited room for policy easing in the context of persistently high inflation, while San Francisco Fed President supports further action but remains non-committal on timing [4]. - The conflicting views within the Fed highlight a decision-making dilemma, balancing signs of labor market weakness against stable economic growth and inflation indicators above target [4]. Group 4: Future Implications - Milan's position may reflect a unique interpretation of economic structural changes, suggesting that traditional policy frameworks may no longer capture economic realities [5]. - The ongoing debate over aggressive rate cuts raises questions about whether Milan's approach will be seen as prescient or misguided, warranting close observation [5].

Core Viewpoint - The next appointment of the Federal Reserve Chair could be the "biggest bull market catalyst" for Bitcoin, potentially leading to a significant price increase to $200,000 if a dovish candidate is chosen by Trump [1] Group 1 - Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, suggests that aggressive interest rate cuts by a dovish Federal Reserve could drive both gold and Bitcoin prices up [1] - The potential rise in Bitcoin prices is linked to the political decision-making surrounding the Federal Reserve's leadership [1] - Novogratz warns that such a scenario could be detrimental for the U.S., possibly undermining the independence of the Federal Reserve [1]

Group 1 - The new Federal Reserve Governor, Milan, emphasizes the independence of monetary policy and bases decisions on objective economic data, advocating for a 50 basis point rate cut, which he was the only member to support [1][3] - Milan predicts that interest rates need to be lowered by more than 100 basis points by the end of the year, arguing that current rates are significantly above the neutral rate and that strict immigration policies will reduce housing demand and inflationary pressures [2][3] - Milan's stance on aggressive rate cuts may lead to market volatility, as he warns that prolonged deviation from the neutral rate could threaten employment targets [2][3] Group 2 - Milan's communication with Trump was limited to congratulations, with no discussion of voting intentions, reinforcing his commitment to independent economic data interpretation and alleviating concerns about political interference [4] - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari supports the current rate cut decisions, citing low risks of inflation from tariffs and viewing Milan's appointment as a routine personnel change, indicating continued public trust in the Fed's independence [5] - Milan's aggressive rate cut proposals could exert 5%-8% downward pressure on the dollar index in the short term, contradicting traditional views that high rates support the dollar, and potentially accelerating capital outflows to emerging markets [6]

Core Viewpoint - The newly appointed Federal Reserve Governor Milan advocates for aggressive interest rate cuts, aligning with President Trump's policies, but finds himself in the minority within the Fed [1]. Group 1: Milan's Position - Milan calls for a total interest rate cut of 150 basis points this year to bring the policy rate closer to his estimated neutral level of 2.5% [1]. - He argues that current short-term rates are approximately 2 percentage points above the neutral level, leading to unnecessary layoffs and higher unemployment [1]. - Milan emphasizes that his stance is not panic-driven, stating that maintaining rates above neutral will accumulate economic risks [1]. Group 2: Diverging Views within the Fed - Other Fed officials express caution regarding further rate cuts, highlighting that inflation remains above the 2% target [2]. - St. Louis Fed President Bullard indicates support for rate cuts only if the labor market worsens without sustained inflationary pressures [2]. - Cleveland Fed President Mester believes the current policy rate is only mildly restrictive and warns against rapid rate cuts that could lead to economic overheating [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The market is skeptical of Milan's aggressive stance, with RSM's Chief Economist questioning the characterization of current monetary policy as tight [3]. - Observations of loose financial conditions and a labor market near full employment contradict Milan's claims of a highly restrictive policy [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell dampened market expectations for more aggressive rate cuts, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time since mid-August [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - U.S. Treasury yields rose by 1 to 3 basis points across various maturities, continuing the upward trend initiated after the Fed's 25 basis point rate cut announcement on Wednesday [1] - The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased slightly to 4.12%, marking the highest level in two weeks [1] Group 2: Fed's Policy Stance - Powell indicated that policymakers will decide on future monetary policy in a "meeting-by-meeting" manner, which suppressed market expectations for rapid rate cuts [1] - Despite the Fed's recent rate cut, the interest rate swap market still leans towards the belief that the Fed will implement two more rate cuts this year [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Prior to the Fed meeting, the bond market exhibited extreme optimism in both sentiment and positioning [1] - The recent sell-off ended a period of rising U.S. Treasury prices, which had been driven by bets on quick reductions in borrowing costs due to signs of weakness in the labor market, despite inflation remaining above the Fed's target [1]

作者：李笑寅，华尔街见闻 特朗普的经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）正式加入美联储担任理事。 当地时间周一晚间，特朗普提名的美联储理事人选米兰在参议院通过最终投票表决，确认出任理事一 职。这意味着他将能够赶上周二开始的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）议息会议，并拥有投票权。 此次确认投票的时间安排异常紧凑，为米兰参与FOMC会议创造了可能，但同时也带来了程序挑战。 一般来说，从参议院批准到正式宣誓就职并坐上FOMC会议桌的整个流程，通常需要数天时间。若米兰 能在周二会议开始前完成所有程序，他将创下一项历史纪录。 据《巴伦周刊》分析，自1935年《银行法》实施以来，从未有过一位美联储理事在确认后的第二天就立 即参加利率决策会议。此前的最快纪录由H. Robert Heller在1986年创下，他在周六获得确认，并参加了 接下来周二开始的会议。 目前尚不清楚米兰是否能来得及提交他的经济预测摘要，以纳入会后发布的材料中。 美联储独立性受损担忧升温 米兰的加入，正值特朗普总统公开向美联储施压之际。 特朗普周一早些时候在社交媒体Truth Social上发帖，用他给美联储主席鲍威尔起的绰号称，"'为时已 ...