Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, China Coal Energy (601898.SH), with a target price of 14.33 CNY per share based on absolute and relative valuation methods [1][4][18]. Core Views - The report anticipates that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will be 16.15 billion, 17.97 billion, and 18.57 billion CNY for the years 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.22, 1.36, and 1.40 CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -16.41%, 11.26%, and 3.31% [1][17]. - The market perceives an oversupply in the coal industry, leading to potential price declines; however, the report argues that a balanced supply-demand scenario will maintain spot prices between 750-850 CNY/ton [2][13][54]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Coal Energy is a leading state-owned enterprise in the coal sector, focusing on integrated operations and clean coal utilization [22]. - The company has substantial coal reserves of 26.52 billion tons and a recoverable reserve of 13.821 billion tons, with a mining life expectancy of nearly 100 years [56]. Financial Data - The company reported a revenue of 189.4 billion CNY in 2024, a slight decrease of 1.9% from the previous year, with a net profit of 19.32 billion CNY, down 1.1% [7][27]. - The average dividend payout ratio since its listing is 30.65%, with a projected payout ratio of 32.87% for 2024 [14][17]. Industry Analysis - The report highlights a stable coal price environment, with expectations for prices to remain between 750-850 CNY/ton due to balanced supply and demand [2][54]. - The coal production capacity is nearing its limits, with expected production stabilizing around 38.5-39 billion tons from 2025 to 2027 [54]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 182.29 billion, 186.23 billion, and 187.70 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of -3.75%, 2.16%, and 0.79% respectively [17]. - The report employs a Dividend Discount Model (DDM) for valuation, suggesting a reasonable stock price of 13.68 CNY based on dividend expectations [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The coal mining market is showing signs of bottoming out after a deep adjustment, with marginal improvements in fundamentals and supportive policies indicating a potential investment opportunity [3][10] - The report highlights five factors that may help stabilize coal prices, including reduced production from some coal mines, decreased railway shipment volumes, and anticipated increases in electricity demand due to high summer temperatures [6][10] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index rose to 3,244.52 points, up 1.65%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.53 percentage points [2][78] - Year-to-date, thermal coal prices have decreased by 139 CNY/ton, while coking coal prices have fallen by 180 CNY/ton, with the CITIC Coal Index down 11.7% [2] Key Factors Affecting Coal Prices - The report identifies that the supply side is tightening due to safety inspections and production cuts in some coal mines, leading to a decrease in capacity utilization [6][10] - High inventory levels at ports are suppressing demand, but the report anticipates that electricity demand may rise as summer temperatures increase [6][10] Focused Analysis on Key Areas - **Thermal Coal**: The market remains weak, with supply still ample and demand primarily driven by essential needs [11][14] - **Coking Coal**: The market continues to face downward pressure, with weak demand and high inventory levels [11][37] - **Coke**: Profits are recovering, supported by steady demand from steel production [11][54] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on key coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Xinji Energy, which are expected to perform well [9][10] Industry News - Inner Mongolia has increased its coal production capacity by nearly 180 million tons per year, receiving recognition from the State Council [83] - International sea coal trade volumes have decreased by 6.7% year-on-year [84]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector's overall performance in Q1 2025 showed a decline, with a total net profit of 24.12 billion yuan, down 41.5% year-on-year. Among 37 listed companies, 25 reported profits, with 23 experiencing a year-on-year decline in net profit [3] - The report suggests that the weak demand in Q1, influenced by holidays and higher temperatures, led to increased supply and falling coal prices. However, due to long-term contract pricing, the performance of thermal coal companies remained relatively stable. A rebound in coal prices is expected around mid-May [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring demand recovery and suggests that the current demand may represent the annual bottom, with a potential rebound in prices during the peak season [3] Industry Market Performance - As of April 29, the CITIC coal industry index fell by 3.69%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which declined by 2.89%. Year-to-date, the coal sector has dropped by 13.99%, lagging behind the CSI 300 by 9.93 percentage points [10] - The coal industry's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 11.5, which is relatively low compared to other sectors, ranking 27th among 30 CITIC primary industries [10] Supply and Demand Situation - In Q1 2025, the average daily sales of the top 20 coal groups decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, while national coal production increased by 8.1% to 1.2 billion tons [4][40] - The total coal consumption in China for Q1 2025 was 1.27 billion tons, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, with the power sector consuming 740 million tons, down 3% [59] - The report indicates that coal prices have generally declined in Q1, with thermal coal prices at 767.6 yuan/ton, down 16.5% year-on-year [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies during market dips, specifically mentioning China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy for thermal coal, and Huabei Mining and Lu'an Environmental Energy for coking coal [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The report indicates that the social electricity consumption in March increased by 4.8% year-on-year, and the supply-demand situation is expected to gradually improve in the second quarter [11][68] - The coal price has shown signs of stabilization, with expectations of a rebound as inventory levels decrease and demand increases in the upcoming summer peak [7][32][70] Market Dynamics - Recent market dynamics show a slight decline in thermal coal prices, with the CCI5500 thermal coal price reported at 670 RMB/ton, down 2 RMB/ton week-on-week [7][13] - The coal mining operating rate as of April 16 was 90.2%, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase week-on-week [16] - The inventory of thermal coal at major ports increased by 2.8% week-on-week, indicating a slight rise in supply [16][18] Industry Insights - The report highlights that the coal industry index rose by 2.6%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.0 percentage points [68] - The first round of price increases for coke has been implemented, with prices rising by 50-55 RMB/ton, supported by strong demand from steel production [56][66] - The report notes that the first two months of 2025 saw a significant decline in industry profits, with total profits of 50.7 billion RMB, down 47.3% year-on-year [71][73] Key Companies - Key companies with stable profits and high dividends include Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua [7][71] - Companies with low valuations and long-term growth potential include Xinji Energy and Yanzhou Coal [7][71] - Companies benefiting from positive demand expectations and low price-to-book ratios include Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [7][71]

Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has experienced a high-level retreat in the first two months of 2025, underperforming the market by 11.8 percentage points, ranking last among all industry indices [4][14]. - The coal price is expected to stabilize and gradually recover due to improved industrial demand, slowing production growth, and reduced import expectations [4][29]. Group 1: Coal Sector Review - In the first two months of 2025, the coal sector has declined by 10.0%, ranking 30th out of 30 in the industry indices [4][14]. - The sub-sectors of thermal coal, coking coal, and coke have seen respective declines of 15.5%, 11.4%, and 7.4% in the first two months [14]. - As of March 18, 2025, the coal sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is at 10.4 times, which is at a historical average level, while the price-to-book (PB) ratio is at 1.33 times, also at a historical average [19][23]. Group 2: Coal Market Review - The growth rate of electricity consumption has dropped to 1.3% in the first two months, while non-electric demand has shown overall improvement [4][29]. - Domestic coal prices have been weak since the beginning of the year, with thermal coal prices stabilizing in March [29]. - The import growth rate of coal has decreased to 1.8% in the first two months of 2025 [4][29]. Group 3: Recent Market Dynamics - Port thermal coal prices have slightly declined, while prices in production areas have generally rebounded [4][29]. - The price of thermal coal is expected to stabilize in the short term due to inventory reductions at southern ports and coastal power plants [4][29]. - Coking coal prices have continued to decline, but demand is expected to improve as the spring construction season approaches [4][29]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The coal price is expected to find support at the bottom, with the sector's valuation and dividend advantages becoming more pronounced [4][29]. - The anticipated average coal price for 2025 may decline, but leading companies are expected to maintain stable profitability due to effective cost control [4][29]. - Key companies with robust dividends include Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua, while companies with lower valuations and long-term growth potential include Xinji Energy and Yanzhou Coal [4][29].