Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the coal industry, particularly in the context of recent policy changes aimed at addressing issues of low-price competition and market order [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Policy Support**: The revision of the Anti-Unfair Competition Law and guidance from the Central Financial Committee provide legal and policy support for the coal industry to combat low-price competition and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [1][2]. - **Supply-Demand Shift**: The coal industry's supply-demand balance has shifted from tight to wide, with an increase in the release capacity of high-quality production. However, demand recovery is slow due to changes in electricity consumption structure, leading to a continuous decline in coal prices [1][2]. - **Local Government Dependency**: Local governments heavily rely on coal revenue and taxes, often resorting to increasing production to compensate for price drops, which exacerbates unhealthy competition [1][3]. - **Energy Bureau Document 108**: This document aims to regulate excessive production and ensure reasonable pricing to meet local GDP assessment requirements. It includes checks on production capacity and is expected to influence market behavior significantly [2][3][6]. - **276 Work System**: The 276 work system is not a mandatory policy but a voluntary measure taken by mining companies to reduce costs and improve efficiency. The Energy Bureau is conducting nationwide self-inspections to verify production data [4][5]. - **Future Policy Impact**: The upcoming policies will depend on market fluctuations and coal price trends. If prices remain reasonable, the approach may be more flexible; otherwise, stricter measures will be enforced [6][7]. - **Safety Regulations**: The new coal mine safety regulations set to be implemented in February 2026 will raise construction thresholds for certain mines, leading to a reduction in output from non-compliant mines and potentially tightening supply [7][8]. Market Dynamics - **Price Forecasts**: - The price of thermal coal is expected to fluctuate between 750 and 800 RMB per ton, while coking coal prices are projected to rise due to scarcity and demand [12][16][17]. - As of July 31, coking coal prices reached 1,500 RMB, an increase of 330 RMB from June 30, driven by demand and supply constraints [17]. - **Demand Trends**: Despite a high inventory level at power plants, the overall demand for thermal coal remains strong, particularly as the share of thermal power decreases and renewable energy increases [12][14]. Long-term Considerations - **Reserve Capacity**: China has a total coal production capacity of approximately 5 billion tons, with potential reserve capacity estimated between 5.4 to 5.5 billion tons. However, specific guidelines on which capacities can be classified as reserve are still pending [18]. - **Resource Scarcity**: There is a significant scarcity of domestic high-quality coking coal, with limited incremental capacity expected in the coming years. The primary resources are concentrated in Shanxi province [19][20]. Conclusion - The coal industry is undergoing significant regulatory changes aimed at stabilizing prices and ensuring sustainable production practices. The interplay between policy, market dynamics, and resource availability will shape the future landscape of the coal market in China.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - On August 7, the main contract of coke closed at 1,667.5 yuan/ton, up 1.71% for the day. The position of the main contract at the close was 21,900 lots, a decrease of 1,274 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1,470 yuan/ton, up 3.52% week - on - week; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port was 1,420 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The resurgence of anti - involution news in the coal industry improved the coke futures atmosphere, and the main contract rose at the end of the session. In terms of supply and demand, coke supply stabilized this week while demand declined slightly, and the fundamentals still faced some pressure. However, the profitability rate of downstream steel mills improved month - on - month, and pig iron production showed some resilience, with a relatively moderate seasonal decline. Overall, the fundamentals of coke changed little, the anti - involution news brought back market optimism, and coke futures returned to a relatively strong trend. Attention should be paid to the relevant dynamics of the coking coal supply side [5][34]. - On August 7, the main contract of coking coal closed at 1,229.5 points, up 2.29% for the day. The position of the main contract at the close was 649,400 lots, an increase of 45,809 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,150 yuan/ton, down 0.9% week - on - week, with the cost of the equivalent futures warehouse receipt being about 1,126 yuan/ton. Frequent inspections of over - production in Shanxi improved the coking coal futures market atmosphere, and the main contract was running strongly. This week, there was no obvious change in the supply and demand of coking coal, maintaining a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the fundamentals lacked support. The medium - and long - term supply contraction expectation dominated the market trend. Overall, with the resurgence of anti - involution news, it is expected that coking coal futures will maintain a relatively strong trend in the near future. Attention should be paid to the relevant dynamics of the coking coal supply side [6][35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - In July, China imported 35.609 million tons of coal and lignite, an increase of 2.572 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 7.8%; from January to July, the cumulative import of coal and lignite was 257.305 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.0% [8]. - On August 7, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable. The ex - factory cash - inclusive price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) was 1,500 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke flat - price was 1,470 yuan/ton, up 3.52% week - on - week, 3.52% month - on - month, down 13.02% year - on - year, and down 24.23% compared with the same period [10]. - Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke ex - warehouse price was 1,420 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, up 1.43% month - on - month, down 12.35% year - on - year, and down 20.22% compared with the same period [10]. - The price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,150 yuan/ton, down 0.86% week - on - week, unchanged month - on - month, down 2.54% year - on - year, and down 20.69% compared with the same period [10]. - The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,520 yuan/ton, down 0.65% week - on - week, up 2.01% month - on - month, up 2.01% year - on - year, and down 23.62% compared with the same period [10]. - The price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,650 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, unchanged month - on - month, up 7.84% year - on - year, and down 13.16% compared with the same period [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The main contract of coke closed at 1,667.5 yuan/ton, up 1.71%, with a high of 1,698.0 yuan/ton, a low of 1,627.5 yuan/ton, a trading volume of 25,627 lots (a decrease of 2,938 lots), and a position of 21,910 lots (a decrease of 1,274 lots) [14]. - The main contract of coking coal closed at 1,229.5 points, up 2.29%, with a high of 1,254.0 points, a low of 1,185.0 points, a trading volume of 3,371,852 lots (an increase of 749,804 lots), and a position of 649,421 lots (an increase of 45,809 lots) [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - Charts include those related to coke inventory (230 independent coking plants, port total, 247 steel - mill coking plants, and total coke inventory), coking coal inventory (mine mouth, port, 247 sample steel - mill, and all - sample independent coking plants), domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume, coal - washing plant production, and coking plant operation [14][21][27]. 3.5 Market Outlook - The analysis of coke and coking coal is the same as the core views, emphasizing that the fundamentals of coke changed little, the anti - involution news restored market optimism, and coke futures returned to a relatively strong trend; for coking coal, with the resurgence of anti - involution news, it is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend in the near future, and attention should be paid to the coking coal supply side [34][35].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The black - series commodity futures were generally bullish on August 6, 2025. The prices of coking coal and coke were strongly supported. The anti - involution expectation in the coal industry and supply - side disturbances were likely to last until around the National Day. The fundamentals of coke showed a tight - balance state, and the prices had the momentum to run steadily and strongly, but the expectation of further price increases was weakening [1]. 3. Summary by Content Market Overview - On August 6, the overall black - series commodity futures were bullish. The closing price of rebar was 3234 yuan/ton, up 0.75%; the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3451 yuan/ton, up 0.41%; the main contract of iron ore closed at 794.5 yuan/ton; coking coal and coke rose, with coking coal leading the gain by over 6% [1]. Market Analysis - **Coking Coal**: Market rumors about the investigation of over - production in Shanxi coal mines from January to June reignited the "anti - involution" expectation in the coal industry. The expectation of production restrictions before the September 3 parade was strengthening, and rumors such as the 276 - working - day notice and the end of the coal supply guarantee policy shrank the supply expectation. In reality, coal mines had good sales, and the pit - mouth coal prices remained firm. With high downstream coke - enterprise operating rates and high pig - iron production, the rigid demand for coking coal was strong, and inventories were low. Last week, the inventories of 523 sample mines, coal - washing plants, and port - imported coking coal decreased, while the inventories of independent coke enterprises and steel mills increased [1]. - **Coke**: On August 4, steel mills in Hebei, Shandong and other places raised the coke purchase prices. With the high daily pig - iron output of steel mills and the positive purchase attitude of most steel mills and the trading sector, the inventories of independent coke enterprises decreased to a 9 - month low. Supported by cost and demand, the fundamentals were in a tight - balance state, and the prices had the momentum to run steadily and strongly. However, as steel mills' attitudes were clear and the trading sector started to sell, the expectation of further price increases weakened [1]. Investment Suggestions - **Iron Ore**: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - **Rebar**: Investors are advised to take a volatile approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the price decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1]. Summary The prices of coking coal and coke futures were affected by market sentiment. After the previous sharp rise, the spot market maintained low inventories and strong rigid demand, and price support remained. The anti - involution expectation was repeated, and supply - side disturbances in coal mines were expected to last until around the National Day [1].

Group 1 - Coal stocks have shown significant gains, with China Shenhua rising 3.44% to HKD 36.7, Yanzhou Coal increasing 3.13% to HKD 9.56, Mongolian Energy up 2.99% to HKD 0.69, and China Coal Energy rising 2.09% to HKD 10.24 [1] - The fifth round of price increases for coking coal has been implemented, with major steel mills in East and North China raising procurement prices by CNY 50-55 per ton, leading to a cumulative increase of CNY 250-275 per ton [1] - Coking coal futures prices surged, with the main contract reaching a limit up and closing with a nearly 7% increase [1] Group 2 - Since early July, coal prices have risen by CNY 450 per ton or 37%, reaching the highest point since the beginning of the year [2] - Despite entering a demand off-season, steel mills maintain high operating rates and iron output, while market speculation has improved due to expectations of reduced competition [2] - The company anticipates that while coal price averages may decline in 2025, second-quarter profits are likely at a bottom, with expectations for steady recovery in the second half and long-term [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in coal stocks, driven by rising coking coal prices following a price adjustment by major steel mills in East and North China [1] - China Shenhua (01088) saw a rise of 3.44% to HKD 36.7, Yanzhou Coal (01171) increased by 3.13% to HKD 9.56, Mongolian Energy (00276) rose by 2.99% to HKD 0.69, and China Coal Energy (01898) gained 2.09% to HKD 10.24 [1] - The fifth round of coking coal price increases has been fully implemented, with cumulative price rises of 250-275 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - Coking coal futures prices surged, with the main contract reaching a near 7% increase after a significant rise on Monday [1] - Guotai Junan noted that the National Energy Administration's stance on "anti-involution" in the coal industry, combined with a price pressure of 650 CNY/ton, is likely to lead to a stable yet declining total supply [1] - GF Securities reported that since early July, coal prices have risen by 450 CNY/ton or 37%, returning to the highest levels since the beginning of the year [1] Group 3 - Despite entering a demand off-season, steel mills maintain high operating rates and iron output, while market speculation has improved due to expectations of anti-involution [1] - The company anticipates that while the coal price center may decline in 2025, profits in the second quarter may have reached a bottom, with a steady recovery expected in the second half and medium to long term [1] - The sector's valuation and dividend yield are considered advantageous [1]

Report Overview 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The report predicts that both coking coal and coke futures will operate strongly in the short - term, with coking coal showing a short - term strong trend, medium - term oscillation, and an intraday rise, and coke also having a short - term strong trend, medium - term oscillation, and an intraday rise [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Market Performance**: On August 5, the main coking coal contract closed at 1182 points, rising 6.92% intraday. The position of the main contract was 526,300 lots at the close, with a net increase of 38,314 lots compared to the previous trading day. The latest price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1150 yuan/ton, down 0.9% week - on - week, and the cost of the equivalent futures warehouse receipt was about 1126 yuan/ton [5]. - **Core Logic**: There are continuous disturbances from over - production inspections in Shanxi, and the atmosphere in the coking coal futures market has warmed up. The supply - demand pattern of coking coal remains unchanged this week, with supply stronger than demand and insufficient fundamental support. The medium - and long - term supply contraction expectation dominates the market trend. It is expected that coking coal futures will maintain a strong operation in the near future [5]. Coke (J) - **Core Logic**: The resurgence of anti - involution news in the coal industry has improved the atmosphere in the coke futures market, and the main contract rose at the end of the session. This week, coke supply stabilized while demand declined slightly, and the fundamentals still face some pressure. However, the profitability rate of downstream steel mills has improved month - on - month, and iron - making output has shown some resilience. The seasonal decline is relatively moderate. The fundamentals of coke have not changed much, and the resurgence of anti - involution news has restored market optimism, leading to a return to strong operation [6].

Core Insights - The report highlights that the coal prices for thermal and coking coal are expected to continue rising due to the "anti-involution" measures and capacity checks in the industry [2][6][10]. Group 1: Industry Hot Events Review - Key events in July include the implementation of the new Mineral Resources Law, which emphasizes the dual focus on development and protection, and the initiation of capacity checks in major coal-producing provinces [5][7]. - The National Energy Administration has begun a special inspection of coal mines in key provinces to ensure production does not exceed announced capacities [7][14]. - The coal industry is experiencing a shift towards higher-end, intelligent production methods, as indicated by recent inspections and government encouragement for transformation [9][10]. Group 2: Supply Side Analysis - Domestic coal production growth is slowing, while import growth is also declining, indicating a tightening supply situation [6][26]. - The report notes that the number of coal mines is decreasing, with a significant concentration of production capacity in larger, more advanced mines [12][39]. - The average cost of coal production has shown significant variation among different mining companies, impacting overall pricing strategies [12][10]. Group 3: Demand Side Analysis - There is a marginal improvement in demand for thermal coal, driven by recovery in steel profits, which is expected to support coking coal prices [6][26]. - The report provides a supply-demand balance table, indicating that coal consumption is projected to grow slightly, while production is expected to stabilize [27][39]. Group 4: Investment Analysis - The report suggests that the seasonal adjustments in national railway freight rates could lead to increased volatility in coal prices, with potential for rapid price increases during peak demand seasons [15][17]. - The low yield of ten-year government bonds enhances the attractiveness of coal companies with high dividend yields, suggesting a favorable investment environment [19][20]. - The anticipated policy changes in Indonesia regarding coal production quotas are expected to stabilize coal prices by aligning actual production with target outputs [21][25].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment was reignited by the news of strict inspections on over - production in Shanxi coal mines, and the far - month contracts of coking coal hit the daily limit first. The strengthening of the reverse spread of coking coal 9 - 1 reflects concerns about near - month delivery pressure and strong expectations for far - month valuations. The "anti - involution" policy may be hyped repeatedly, and the coking coal futures price is expected to be more volatile. The report is not pessimistic about the medium - and long - term trends of coal and coke. Attention should be paid to macro events at home and abroad such as the military parade, the Fed's interest rate cut game, and the Fourth Plenary Session. Investors without spot handling ability are not recommended to participate in the delivery game near the 09 contract delivery. The previously recommended coking coal 9 - 1 reverse spread can consider taking profits, and it is recommended to temporarily observe the 09 on - disk coking profit [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for coking coal is predicted to be 950 - 1350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.68% and a historical percentile of 63.87%. For coke, the monthly price range is 1480 - 1900, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.37% and a historical percentile of 49.13% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategy**: For the arbitrage scenario of monthly spread arbitrage with no spot exposure, the recommended strategy is to short the coking coal 9 - 1 spread (jm2509&jm2601), with a suggested entry range of (- 40, - 30) [3]. 2. Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, the warehouse receipts of rebar increased by 5723 tons to 88363 tons, hot - rolled coil remained unchanged at 55998 tons, iron ore remained unchanged at 3600 hands, coking coal decreased by 500 hands to 0 hands, coke remained unchanged at 760 hands, ferrosilicon decreased by 112 sheets to 21930 sheets, and silicomanganese decreased by 243 sheets to 77611 sheets [3]. 3. Core Contradictions - The news of strict inspections on over - production in Shanxi coal mines reignited market sentiment, and the far - month contracts of coking coal hit the daily limit first. The strengthening of the coking coal 9 - 1 reverse spread reflects concerns about near - month delivery pressure and strong expectations for far - month valuations. The "anti - involution" policy may be hyped repeatedly, and the coking coal futures price is expected to be more volatile. The report is not pessimistic about the medium - and long - term trends of coal and coke. Attention should be paid to macro events at home and abroad. Near the 09 contract delivery, investors without spot handling ability are not recommended to participate in the delivery game, and the previously recommended coking coal 9 - 1 reverse spread can consider taking profits, and it is recommended to temporarily observe the 09 on - disk coking profit [4]. 4. Profit and Loss Analysis - **Positive Factors**: The expectation of "anti - involution" in coal mines remains, and the mine production increase space in the second half of the year may be limited. The downstream steel mills have good profits, providing a basis for raw material price increases. There is room for policy expectation game before the Fourth Plenary Session in October [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The import profit of overseas coal has recovered, and there will be pressure on subsequent arrivals. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has resumed, with more than 1000 trucks per day currently. Off - balance - sheet inventory in the spot - futures market flows into the market, putting pressure on spot prices [5]. 5. Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, the basis of coking coal and coke futures had different degrees of change, and the on - disk coking profit decreased from - 18 to - 50 [6]. - **Spot Prices**: On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, most coal and coke spot prices remained unchanged, and the immediate coking profit increased from - 60 to - 12 [7]. 6. Import Profits and Ratios - **Import Profits**: On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, the import profit of Mongolian coal (long - term agreement) decreased by 51 to 234 yuan/ton, the import profit of Australian coal (Peak Downs) increased by 15 to - 241 yuan/ton, etc [8]. - **Ratios**: On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal increased from 2.39 to 2.4072 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several coal companies, including Jin控煤业, 华阳股份, and others, while providing cautious recommendations for some [4][10][14]. Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing a supply contraction due to government inspections and policies aimed at reducing overproduction, particularly affecting thermal coal [2][8]. - Demand is expected to exceed expectations due to increased electricity consumption and infrastructure investments, with projected coal prices potentially reaching 750 RMB/ton in mid-August [3][9]. - The report highlights the self-regulating nature of supply and demand in the coal market, aided by government policies [2][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The National Energy Administration has initiated inspections of coal mines, particularly in eight key provinces, leading to a potential reduction of approximately 224 million tons in annual coal production due to overproduction [2][8]. - The report notes that the cost curve for coal production is steep, with high-cost regions like Xinjiang and Indonesia reducing output, contributing to a tighter supply [2][8]. Demand Dynamics - Electricity demand has shown signs of recovery, with national power generation growth reaching 7.89% year-on-year in early July, which is expected to drive coal demand higher [3][9]. - Non-electric chemical demand has also increased, with growth rates climbing from 10% to nearly 20% since early May, further supporting coal consumption [3][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable earnings and growth potential, such as Jin控煤业 and 华阳股份, as well as those with high spot market exposure like 潞安环能 [4][10][14]. - It also recommends monitoring companies that are expected to benefit from production recovery, such as 山煤国际, and industry leaders like 陕西煤业 and 中国神华 [4][10][14]. Market Performance - As of July 25, the coal sector has outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 8.0% compared to 1.7% for the Shanghai Composite Index [15][17]. - Specific companies like 潞安环能 and 晋控煤业 have seen significant stock price increases, indicating strong market sentiment [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is experiencing a significant upward trend, with major coal companies' stock prices hitting the limit up, driven by anticipated regulatory changes and a potential shift in supply-demand dynamics [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 22, the Shenwan Hongyuan Coal Index surged by 6.18%, with companies like Shanxi Coking Coal and Huahua Energy reaching their daily price limits [4]. - In the futures market, the main contracts for coking coal and coke also hit the limit up, with increases of 7.98% [4]. Group 2: Regulatory Developments - The National Energy Administration plans to conduct coal mine production inspections in key coal-producing provinces to ensure compliance with production capacities [5][6]. - The inspection will cover eight provinces, including Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, focusing on whether coal production exceeds announced capacities [5][6]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The coal industry is expected to undergo a "de-involution" process, with a focus on stabilizing supply and addressing the imbalance in supply-demand dynamics [6][7]. - The China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association has emphasized the need for coal companies to adhere to long-term contracts and improve production quality [6]. Group 4: Price Recovery and Demand - There are signs of a price recovery for coal and other resource products, with the China Electric Coal Procurement Price Index showing recent price increases [8][9]. - The market is experiencing a "high-temperature-driven demand release," leading to accelerated coal transportation and inventory reduction [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the coal supply-demand structure may undergo a significant reversal, with demand rebounding while supply contracts, potentially leading to a balanced market [9]. - The focus on reducing excess capacity and improving production quality is expected to support coal prices in the near term [9].