Group 1: Report's Overall Rating and Core View - The investment rating of the methanol industry is "Oscillating and Declining" [1] - The core view is that the domestic methanol market continues regional adjustment. After the futures oscillate at a high level and decline, there is a slight rebound. Coastal ports accumulate inventory as expected, the near - end follows demand, and the basis weakens. Due to poor MTO profits, the operation dynamics of some projects need to be closely monitored. The follow - up situation in the inland market is okay in the morning, but the actual buying and reselling sentiment weakens again as the market declines, and the trading is in a weak stalemate in the afternoon [4] Group 2: Fundamental Data Futures Market - The closing price of methanol's main 05 - contract is 2,267 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price is 2,280 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; the trading volume is 1,857,665 lots, an increase of 251,745 lots; the open interest is 818,847 lots, a decrease of 5,689 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 8,205 tons, unchanged; the trading volume in ten thousand yuan is 4,234,878, an increase of 599,234 [2] - The basis is 6, an increase of 31; the spread between MA01 and MA05 is - 32, a decrease of 7 [2] Spot Market - The price in Inner Mongolia is 1,835 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the price in northern Shaanxi is 1,870 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the price in Shandong is 2,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Group 3: Spot News - The methanol spot price index is 2003.94, down 4.02. Among them, the Taicang spot price is 2,273, up 8; the northern Inner Mongolia price is 1,842.5, down 7.5. Among the 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 3 cities have different degrees of decline, with a decline range of 7.5 - 20 yuan/ton [4] - As of January 7, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 153.72 million tons, an increase of 4.08 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.73%. This week, the methanol port inventory continues to accumulate, mainly in Zhejiang. The visible foreign vessel unloading within the cycle is 22.71 million tons. The pick - up in the main storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu remains robust. The opening of the inland delivery space leads to weak shipments in the coastal side - warehouses. In Zhejiang, foreign vessels arrive at ports intensively, and the inventory accumulates significantly with stable demand. The inventory in South China ports decreases slightly this week. In Guangdong, there is a small amount of imported and domestic trade vessel replenishment within the cycle. Affected by holidays, the pick - up volume in the main storage areas decreases, and the inventory fluctuates little. In Fujian, there are no vessels arriving at ports this week, and the inventory shows a decline under the downstream rigid - demand consumption [4][5] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of methanol is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The real inventory pressure in the port area remains high, and the window for the port to flow back to the mainland is closed, dragging down port pick - up. Although the Iranian methanol plant is operating at a low level, the actual decline in shipping volume due to plant maintenance needs further confirmation, and the decline rate of shipping volume in December is still slow. There are concerns about the possible maintenance of Xingxing's MTO plant [2]. - Downstream demand in the mainland is in the seasonal off - season, and factory inventories are gradually rebuilding. Coal - based production maintains high operation rates, and attention should be paid to the resumption progress of southwest gas - based plants in the middle and late ten - days. The seasonal low of pending orders in the northwest drags down the pick - up demand for port - to - mainland back - flow. Among traditional downstream industries, the acetic acid operation rate has rebounded from the bottom, the MTBE operation rate is still acceptable, and the formaldehyde operation rate has declined slightly [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - Period Structure - The report presents charts of methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) relative to the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][9][21] 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - The report shows charts of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), Taicang methanol - CFR China import price difference, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [25][26][33] 3.3 Methanol Operation Rate and Inventory - The report provides charts of methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operation rate (including integrated plants), mainland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operation rate (including integrated plants) [34][43] 3.4 Regional Price Differences - The report includes charts of price differences in different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [40][48][52] 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - The report shows charts of production profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [50][58] 3.6 Strategies - Inter - period: Expand the spread of MA2605 - MA2609 when it is low [4] - Cross - variety: Narrow the spread of LL2605 - 3*MA2605 when it is high [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral trading is neutral [4] - For the spread between MA2605 - MA2609, the strategy is to widen the spread when it is low [4] - For the spread between LL2605 - 3*MA2605, the strategy is to narrow the spread when it is high [4] Core Viewpoints - The delayed unloading pressure at ports has started to materialize, and there is pressure for inventory accumulation at Jiangsu ports [2] - After the winter maintenance of Iranian plants was concentrated, a 1.65 million - ton/year Iranian plant restarted on Monday, and the situation of the plants is fluctuating [2] - Although the Iranian plants are operating at a low level, the actual decline in shipping volume due to plant maintenance still needs further confirmation [2] - The MTO maintenance at Ningbo Fude is dragging down port demand [2] - Coal - based methanol production is still operating well, and there is seasonal winter maintenance for southwest gas - based methanol production [3] - The new MTO plant, Lianhong Phase II, is operating stably [3] - Among traditional downstream industries, acetic acid production has a slight increase but remains at a low level, MTBE production remains at a high level, and formaldehyde production has a slight decline [3] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure - Figures show methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and inter - term spreads between different methanol futures contracts [7][13][19] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures present Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), and import spreads between different regions (Taicang - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, etc.) [24][28][29] III. Methanol开工, Inventory - Figures display methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated plants) [31][39] IV. Regional Price Spreads - Figures show regional price spreads such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [37][44][48] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures present the production profits of traditional downstream industries such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [46][56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol market showed a volatile rebound this week. In the short - term, it is expected to continue the volatile rebound trend, with the 01 contract having an upper pressure range of 2150 - 2200 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 inter - period positive spread has peaked, and it is expected to enter a reverse spread pattern in the medium - term. The spread between MA and PP is in a volatile pattern [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread - The report presents historical data charts of methanol's basis, monthly spreads (1 - 5, 5 - 9), and warehouse receipts, as well as domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price differentials from 2020 to 2025 [8][11][16]. 3.2 Supply - **New Capacity**: From 2024 - 2025, China added multiple methanol production facilities, with a total capacity expansion of 4000000 tons in 2024 and 8300000 tons in 2025. Overseas, there were also new production plans, with a total international capacity expansion of 3550000 tons in 2024 and 1650000 tons in 2025 [24]. - **Maintenance**: Multiple enterprises carried out maintenance from October to November 2025, resulting in different levels of production losses [27]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In the week of 20251205 - 1211, China's methanol production was 2039705 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 89.81%, a week - on - week increase of 0.81%. Next week, production is expected to be around 2055400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be around 90.50% [4]. - **Production by Process**: The report shows historical production data of methanol produced by different processes (coke oven gas, coal single - alcohol, coal co - alcohol, natural gas) in China from 2018 to 2025 [30]. - **Capacity Utilization by Region**: It presents historical capacity utilization data of methanol in different regions (Northwest, Southwest, East, Central) in China from 2018 to 2025 [33]. - **Import - related**: It shows historical data of China's methanol import volume, import cost, arrival volume, and import profit from 2020 to 2025 [37]. - **Cost and Profit**: It shows historical data of methanol production costs and profits of different production methods (coal - based, coke oven gas - based, natural gas - based) in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [42]. 3.3 Demand - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: It shows historical capacity utilization data of methanol downstream industries (methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE) from 2020 to 2025 [52]. - **Downstream Profit**: It shows historical profit data of methanol downstream industries (MTO, formaldehyde, MTBE) in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [59]. - **Procurement Volume**: It shows historical procurement volume data of MTO production enterprises and traditional downstream manufacturers in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [67]. - **Raw Material Inventory**: It shows historical inventory data of methanol raw materials in downstream manufacturers in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [77]. 3.4 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows historical data of methanol factory inventories in China, East China, Northwest China, and Inner Mongolia from 2018 to 2025 [82]. - **Port Inventory**: It shows historical data of methanol port inventories in China, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong from 2018 to 2025 [88].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 7, 2025 [1] - Authors: Huang Tianyuan, Yang Honghan [1] - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Methanol is under pressure in the short - term, with limited upside space and a weak operation. In the medium - term, the high supply pressure of the 01 contract remains the main contradiction. In 2026, the fundamentals may improve marginally in the first quarter [3][4] Group 2: This Week's Methanol Summary Supply - This week (20251128 - 1204), China's methanol production was 2,023,465 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 89.092%, a环比 decrease of 0.002%. Next week, production is expected to be around 2.0382 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate around 89.74% [4] - Ningbo Fude is expected to shut down for maintenance later, and the olefin开工 rate is expected to decrease [4] Demand - In the traditional downstream, dimethyl ether: Lankao Huitong's plant has a restart expectation next week, and the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to increase. Glacial acetic acid: The plants that resumed this week are expected to run at full capacity, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise. Formaldehyde: Xinjiang Heshuo has a shutdown expectation, and the capacity utilization rate may decline. Chloride: The overall capacity utilization rate of methane chloride is expected to rise, but the impact of high - priced liquid chlorine on enterprises needs attention [4] Inventory - As of December 3, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 361,500 tons, a decrease of 12,200 tons from the previous period, a环比 decrease of 3.26%; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 239,700 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from the previous period, a环比 increase of 3.90% [4] - As of December 3, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.3494 million tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons from the previous period, a环比 decrease of 1.03%. The port inventory decreased slightly this week [4] Group 3: Price and Spread Basis, Monthly Spread, and Warehouse Receipts - Charts show the trends of CZCE methanol basis, 1 - 5 monthly spread, 5 - 9 monthly spread, and warehouse receipt quantity from 2020 - 2025 [7][9][10] Domestic Spot Prices - Charts present the trends of domestic methanol spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Henan, Lunan area, and Taicang from 2020 - 2025 [13][14][15][16] International Spot Prices - Charts display the trends of international methanol spot prices in China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR, and Rotterdam FOB from 2020 - 2025 [17][18][19] Port - Inland Price Spread - Charts show the trends of port - inland price spreads such as Taicang - Hebei, Taicang - Sichuan and Chongqing, Taicang - Henan, and Taicang - Lunan from 2020 - 2025 [20][21][22][23] Group 4: Supply New Capacity Summary - From 2024 - 2025, China added a total of 4 million tons/year of new methanol capacity in 2024 and 8.3 million tons/year in 2025. Overseas, 3.55 million tons/year of new capacity was added in 2024 and 1.65 million tons/year is expected to be added in 2025 [25] Maintenance Summary - A list shows the methanol maintenance plans of multiple enterprises, including shutdown and startup dates, daily losses, and total losses [28] Production and Capacity Utilization - Charts illustrate the trends of methanol production in China, Northwest China, and production by different processes (coke oven gas, coal single - alcohol, etc.) from 2018 - 2025, as well as capacity utilization rates in China, overseas, and different regions [29][31][33][34] Import - Related - Charts display the trends of China's methanol import volume, import cost, arrival volume, and import profit from 2020 - 2025 [38][39][40][41] Cost and Profit - Charts show the trends of methanol production costs and profits by different processes (coal - based, coke oven gas - based, etc.) in different regions from 2020 - 2025 [43][44][45][49][50] Group 5: Demand Downstream Capacity Utilization - Charts present the trends of capacity utilization rates of methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, etc. from 2020 - 2025 [53][54][55][56] Downstream Profits - Charts show the trends of production profits of methanol - to - olefins in East China and Shandong, as well as the production profits of formaldehyde, MTBE, and glacial acetic acid in different regions from 2020 - 2025 [60][61][64][65][66] Procurement Volume - Charts display the trends of procurement volumes of MTO production enterprises in China and different regions, as well as the procurement volumes of traditional downstream manufacturers in China and different regions from 2020 - 2025 [68][69][73][74] Raw Material Inventory - Charts show the trends of raw material inventories of traditional downstream manufacturers in China and different regions from 2020 - 2025 [78][79][80] Group 6: Inventory Factory Inventory - Charts illustrate the trends of methanol factory inventories in China, East China, Northwest China, and Inner Mongolia from 2018 - 2025 [83][84][85][86] Port Inventory - Charts present the trends of methanol port inventories in China, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong from 2018 - 2025 [89][90][91] Group 7: Strategy - Unilateral: The upside space is limited, and it is in a weak operation. The upper pressure of the 01 contract is 2,150 - 2,200 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 2,000 - 2,050 yuan/ton [4] - Inter - period: The 1 - 5 positive spread has peaked, and it is expected to enter a reverse spread pattern in the medium - term [4] - Inter - variety: The spread between MA and PP is in a volatile pattern [4]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol is "Short - term bullish" [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - In the short - term, methanol rebounded from a low level and is expected to run strongly. In the medium - term, the high supply pressure of the 01 - contract methanol in China is the main contradiction, and the price upside in December may be limited. In 2026, the overall fundamental situation of methanol may improve in the first quarter. The MTO fundamental is weak, and the production profit is continuously compressed. The fundamental pressure level is currently at 2,150 - 2,200 yuan/ton. The lower valuation of methanol mainly refers to the cash - flow cost line of coal - based plants in Henan, which is around 2,000 - 2,050 yuan/ton [5] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. [Fundamental Tracking] - In the futures market, the closing price of the methanol main contract was 2,136 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,121 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the trading volume was 1,027,056 lots, up 83,284 lots; the open interest of the 01 - contract was 1,003,722 lots, down 45,066 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 3,800 tons, unchanged; the trading volume was 2.178178 billion yuan, up 0.171558 billion yuan; the basis was - 18, up 7; the spread between MA01 and MA05 was - 96, down 12. In the spot market, the Inner Mongolia price was 1,970 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the northern Shaanxi price was 1,955 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the Shandong price was 2,180 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] 2. [Spot News] - The methanol spot price index was 2,065.15, up 4.37. Among them, the Taicang spot price was 2,118, up 8, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1,995, up 2.5. Among the 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 10 cities saw varying degrees of price increases, with increases ranging from 2.5 to 55 yuan/ton. As of November 26, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.3635 million tons, a decrease of 0.1158 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 7.83%. The overall unloading of foreign vessels was lower than expected, and the visible unloading during the period was only 152,000 tons [4]

Core Viewpoint - Since the end of July, domestic methanol futures prices have been continuously declining, with the 2601 contract dropping below 2000 yuan/ton, marking the lowest level since October 2020. The decline is primarily due to increased imports and high port inventories, which are expected to persist into the first quarter of next year [1][5]. Group 1: Domestic Supply and Inventory - Domestic operating rates remain high, with a current operating rate of 76.5% as of November 14, 2023. The coal-based methanol operating rate is at 82.5%, while natural gas-based and coke oven gas-based rates are at 50.6% and 59.4%, respectively. There are few domestic maintenance activities, but some natural gas-based facilities may undergo maintenance starting late November [2]. - Port inventories have surged to over 1.6 million tons, the highest level in recent years, driven by continuous imports since June. The expected import volumes for November and December suggest that inventory reduction is unlikely until at least 2025 [2][3]. Group 2: Profit Margins - Upstream profits have been significantly compressed due to rising coal prices since September, which have increased production costs for coal-based methanol. Despite this, methanol prices have fallen, leading to some regions experiencing profits dropping below breakeven levels [4]. - Conversely, downstream profits have begun to recover, particularly in the olefins sector, where profits have rebounded to their highest levels of the year following the decline in methanol prices. Traditional downstream profits are also improving, although they are expected to remain at historically low levels in 2024 and 2025 [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The recent acceleration in methanol price declines is attributed to increased imports and sustained high port inventories, which are expected to limit price recovery. If Iranian methanol facilities begin to shut down as planned at the end of November, import pressures may ease, but high inventories will continue to suppress prices into 2025 [5][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The port price of methanol continues to decline, and the port inventory has dropped from its high for the first time, with the port methanol flowing back to the inland. The key lies in whether the inland can withstand the impact of the port's backflow. The overseas market maintains a high - operating rate, and the focus is on when the winter maintenance in Iran will be implemented. The auction in the inland has improved, and the inventory of inland factories has slightly decreased. The MTO units of Yangmei are under maintenance, and Luxi MTO maintains a low - load operation. The commissioning progress of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong needs attention. In the traditional downstream, the operating rate of acetic acid continues to decline, formaldehyde operates at a low load in the off - season, and the operating rate of MTBE is acceptable. There are few coal - based maintenance projects in the inland, and the gas - based units in the southwest are waiting for the maintenance from late November to December [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Inland - The price of Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 465 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is 573 yuan/ton (+10). The price of methanol in Inner Mongolia's northern line is 1978 yuan/ton (+10), with a basis of 565 yuan/ton (+27); in Inner Mongolia's southern line, it is 1920 yuan/ton (unchanged). In Shandong Linyi, it is 2140 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 327 yuan/ton (+17). In Henan, it is 2000 yuan/ton (-15), with a basis of 187 yuan/ton (+2). In Hebei, it is 2075 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 322 yuan/ton (+17). The inventory of inland factories is 358,700 tons (-10,550), and the inventory of northwest factories is 188,500 tons (-17,000). The pending orders of inland factories are 246,320 tons (+920), and those of northwest factories are 125,400 tons (+8,900) [2]. 3.1.2 Port - The price of methanol in Taicang is 1997 yuan/ton (-5), with a basis of - 16 yuan/ton (+12), CFR China is 234 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the import price difference in East China is - 46 yuan/ton (-10). In Changzhou, it is 2235 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it is 1990 yuan/ton (-20), with a basis of - 23 yuan/ton (-3). The total port inventory is 1,479,340 tons (-64,260), the inventory in Jiangsu ports is 819,300 tons (-17,300), in Zhejiang ports is 198,500 tons (-21,300), and in Guangdong ports is 277,000 tons (-13,000). The operating rate of downstream MTO is 89.26% (-0.55%) [3]. 3.1.3 Regional Price Differences - The price differences such as Luobei - Northwest - 280, Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc., have different changes, with some decreasing and some increasing [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis - The port price continues to decline, and the inventory drops from its high. The key is the winter maintenance in Iran and whether the inland can withstand the back - flow. In the inland, the auction improves, and the factory inventory decreases. In the MTO sector, some units are under maintenance or operating at low loads. The commissioning progress of Lianhong's second - phase MTO needs attention. In the traditional downstream, the operating rates of different products vary [4]. 3.3 Strategy - There are no strategies for unilateral, inter - period, and cross - variety trading [5]. 3.4 Figures in Each Section 3.4.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Figures show the basis between methanol in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia's northern line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (such as methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][8][24]. 3.4.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures display the production profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, the import price difference of methanol in Taicang, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [7][29][30]. 3.4.3 Methanol Operating Rate, Inventory - Figures present the total port inventory of methanol, the operating rate of MTO/P (including integrated units), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operating rate of methanol production in China [7][39][41]. 3.4.4 Regional Price Differences - Figures show the price differences between different regions, such as Luobei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, etc. [7][43][49]. 3.4.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [7][53][61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The port performance of methanol is weak, and there is a large real - inventory pressure. The key lies in when the winter shutdown of Iranian devices will be implemented. [1][2] - The port inventory is at a historical high, with the inventory in Jiangsu, a major trading hub, remaining at a high level, and the MTO inventory in Zhejiang accumulating rapidly. [2] - Inland, the auction atmosphere in the northwest was average at the beginning of the week and slightly improved on Tuesday. Some MTO devices are under maintenance or have maintenance plans, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong. [3] - The window for ports to flow back to the inland has opened, but the support is still weak because the inland is also in the off - season. [3] - Among traditional downstream industries, the acetic acid operating rate has been continuously decreasing, formaldehyde is operating at a low load in the off - season, and the MTBE operating rate is performing well. [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, methanol basis in different regions relative to the main futures, and the basis of methanol in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, and Guangdong relative to the main futures. It also shows the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01). [6][7][9] 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China. [6][25][26] 3.3 Methanol Operating Rate and Inventory - The report provides data on the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operating rate of methanol in China (including integrated ones). [6][35][36] 3.4 Regional Price Differences - It shows the price differences in different regions, such as the price difference between North Shandong - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200. [6][40][47] 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display the production gross profits of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether. [6][51][56]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical products sector, particularly methanol, has been the weakest performer in the domestic commodity market over the past two months, with methanol futures contracts experiencing a continuous decline and reaching a new low since July 2023 [1] Group 1: Supply and Inventory - High inventory pressure is the main reason for the continuous decline in methanol prices, with port inventories reaching multi-year highs [2] - As of November 13, China's methanol production capacity utilization rate was 87.08%, with port inventory totaling 1.5436 million tons, an increase of 56,500 tons from the previous week [2] - The supply pressure is expected to increase as domestic methanol production facilities resume operations and import shipments arrive, particularly in the East China region [2] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Demand from traditional downstream sectors is expected to decline as they enter the off-season, leading to reduced procurement of raw materials [2] - The profitability of the polyolefin sector remains under pressure, which may further lower operational rates and reduce demand for methanol [2] - Despite no significant drop in pre-sale orders from methanol companies, year-on-year demand remains weak, especially with cautious purchasing from inland regions [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts generally believe that the weak methanol market is likely to continue due to high inventory levels and insufficient demand [3] - The ability for methanol prices to rebound will depend on inventory changes and production facility adjustments [3] - In the short term, the methanol market is expected to maintain a loose supply-demand balance, with a focus on monitoring port inventory changes and the operational status of MTO enterprises [3]