1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The port inventory has accumulated again after the holiday due to concentrated arrivals, and the inventory inflection point has not appeared yet. The arrival pressure in October remains high, and the subsequent changes mainly depend on when the Iranian winter inspection plan will be announced. The Iranian operating rate is still high, and the lower support for the port still relies on the window for re - flowing to the inland. - The inland price has declined, the coal - based methanol operating rate has rebounded again, the inland inventory has risen from a low level, and the support for the port has weakened. Among traditional downstream industries, the high inventory pressure of acetic acid has dragged down its operating rate, the MTBE operating rate is in a slight rebound cycle, and the formaldehyde operating rate remains stable [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in different regions such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, and Guangdong compared with the main futures contract, as well as the inter - period spread between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01). The data sources for these figures are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][9][11] 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - The report shows figures about methanol production profit (e.g., Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit), MTO profit (East China MTO profit of PP&EG type), and import profit (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread, differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China). The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [26][29][30] 3.3 Methanol Operating Rate, Inventory - Figures related to methanol operating rate and inventory are presented, including methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China methanol operating rate (including integrated). The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [35][41] 3.4 Regional Price Differences - The report includes figures showing regional price differences, such as the price differences between Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200. The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [37][46] 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures about the production profits of traditional downstream industries are shown, including Shandong formaldehyde production profit, Jiangsu acetic acid production profit, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification production profit, and Henan dimethyl ether production profit. The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [47][52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol market shows a pattern where the inland is stronger than the port. The port has started to reduce inventory, but the absolute inventory level remains high, and future changes depend on the announcement of Iran's winter inspection plan. Inland inventory has decreased again, supported by the procurement of mainstream CTO factories in the northwest. Traditional downstream industries have different performance, with acetic acid being affected by high inventory and MTBE seeing an improvement in exports [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Important Data Supply - **Port Supply**: Overseas methanol operating rate is 63.14% (unchanged), and China's weekly imported methanol arrival volume is 279,000 tons (-75,400 tons), including 235,000 tons (-45,400 tons) in East China and 44,000 tons (-30,000 tons) in South China [1]. - **Inland Supply**: China's methanol operating rate is 82.50% (+2.59%), with coal - based methanol at 79.24% (+1.81%), natural gas - based at 50.79% (unchanged), and coke oven gas - based at 61.50% (+1.59%). Northwest operating rate is 84.99% (+4.18%), North China at 58.55% (-5.85%), Central China at 80.77% (-7.87%), East China at 82.30% (+2.51%), and Southwest at 83.97% (+5.97%) [1]. Demand - **Port Demand**: Taicang's average weekly提货量 is 3,268 tons per day (+450 tons), East China's MTO enterprises' weekly procurement volume is 148,600 tons (-16,000 tons), and the operating rate of externally - purchased methanol MTO enterprises is 75.08% (+6.02%) [1]. - **Inland Demand**: Methanol enterprises' pending orders are 273,022 tons (+39,246 tons). Traditional downstream sample enterprises' raw material procurement volume is 36,300 tons (+5,000 tons), with formaldehyde operating rate at 44.71% (+1.32%), acetic acid at 78.97% (-3.44%), MTBE external sales factories at 64.23% (+0.66%), and dimethyl ether at 7.20% (+0.91%). Northwest MTO enterprises' weekly procurement volume is 88,500 tons (+17,200 tons), and MTO enterprises' operating rate is 88.18% (+4.38%) [2]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Methanol port inventory is 1,492,190 tons (-65,580 tons), including 779,000 tons (-8,000 tons) in Jiangsu, 253,700 tons (-33,200 tons) in Zhejiang, 293,000 tons (-10,000 tons) in Guangdong, and 166,490 tons (-14,380 tons) in Fujian. MTO sample enterprises' methanol inventory is 700,000 tons (-5,000 tons), and downstream sample enterprises' is 186,600 tons (-5,600 tons) [2]. - **Inland Inventory**: China's inland methanol factory inventory is 319,940 tons (-20,540 tons), including 208,000 tons (-17,500 tons) in the northwest, 19,000 tons (-300 tons) in North China, 15,450 tons (+320 tons) in Central China, 55,800 tons (-2,050 tons) in East China, and 20,000 tons (-1,000 tons) in Southwest [2]. Market Analysis - **Port**: Port arrivals are lower than expected, and downstream pre - holiday pick - up is acceptable. The port has started to reduce inventory, but the absolute inventory level is still high. Future changes mainly depend on the announcement of Iran's winter inspection plan. The lower support for the port still relies on the window for back - flowing to the inland [3]. - **Inland**: Transactions in the northwest are still good, supported by the procurement of mainstream CTO factories. Inland inventory has decreased again, showing a pattern where the inland is stronger than the port. In traditional downstream industries, high acetic acid inventory drags down its operating rate, while MTBE exports have improved, leading to a recovery in its operating rate, and formaldehyde operating rate remains stable. In terms of supply, the recovery of coal - based methanol operating rate is still slow, waiting for a further increase in October [3]. Strategy - **Single - side**: No strategy proposed - **Inter - period**: Go long on the spread between MA2601 and MA2605 when it is low - **Inter - variety**: Shorten the spread between PP01 and 3MA01 when it is high [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The port inventory accumulation pace has slowed down for the first time. After the restart of the downstream MTO Xingxing, it supported the port demand, and the port inventory remained basically flat this week. However, the subsequent arrival pressure is still high, and the subsequent changes mainly depend on when the Iranian winter inspection plan will be announced [3] - The lowest point of coal - based methanol production has passed, but it will not return to a high level until the second half of the month. The inventory of inland methanol plants is still low, and overall, the inland market is stronger than the port market. The window for port re - flow to the inland is an important variable supporting the lower limit of port prices. The high - start acetic acid production has peaked and declined, and formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season, waiting for a further bottom - up recovery. Attention should be paid to the decline in the resilience of inland demand [3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Includes figures such as methanol Taicang basis and the main methanol contract, methanol basis in different regions relative to the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - methanol 05, methanol 05 - methanol 09, methanol 09 - methanol 01) [7][22] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Involves figures related to Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), and import price differences such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [26][30] 3. Methanol Production and Inventory - Covers figures on total port methanol inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones) [33][34] 4. Regional Price Differences - Includes figures on price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [38][45] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Involves figures on production profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [49][54]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, SC rose 0.21% on Friday night. Concerns about supply disruptions due to geopolitical factors and potential interest - rate cuts may boost oil demand. US crude and product inventories decreased last week, and subsequent attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3]. - For methanol, it fell 0.89% on Friday night. The domestic methanol overall plant operating rate decreased slightly, while the coal - to - olefins plant operating rate increased. Coastal methanol inventory is at a high level but the accumulation rate has slowed, and methanol is short - term bullish [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Crude Oil - Price changes: SC near - month rose 0.85% (4.0 yuan), SC next - month rose 0.73% (3.5 yuan), WTI near - month rose 0.72% (0.46 dollars), WTI next - month rose 0.69% (0.44 dollars), Brent near - month fell 0.22% (- 0.15 dollars), Brent next - month fell 0.28% (- 0.19 dollars) [2]. - Volume and open interest: SC near - month volume was 98,327, open interest was 31,938 with a decrease of 3904; SC next - month volume was 193,074, open interest was 294,186 with a decrease of 10952; WTI near - month volume was 106,713, open interest was 199,459 with an increase of 1571; WTI next - month volume was 105,363, open interest was 159,322 with a decrease of 49565; Brent near - month volume was 330,931, open interest was 607,763 with an increase of 19824 [2]. - Spreads: SC near - month - SC next - month spread was - 8.2 yuan (previous - 8.7 yuan), SC near - month - WTI near - month spread was 18.9 yuan (previous 18.2 yuan), SC near - month - Brent near - month spread was - 8.2 yuan (previous - 13.2 yuan), WTI near - month - WTI next - month spread was 3.92 dollars (previous 3.78 dollars), Brent near - month - Brent next - month spread was 0.66 dollars (previous 0.62 dollars) [2]. Methanol - Price changes: 01 contract fell 0.51% (- 12.0 yuan), 05 contract fell 0.46% (- 11.0 yuan), 09 contract fell 0.94% (- 21.0 yuan) [2]. - Volume and open interest: 01 contract volume was 419,697, open interest was 821,019 with an increase of 35186; 05 contract volume was 16,487, open interest was 95,958 with an increase of 3509; 09 contract volume was 26,306, open interest was 12,902 with a decrease of 16307 [2]. Spot Market Crude Oil - International market: OPEC basket crude price was 69.65 dollars (previous 69.75 dollars), Brent DTD was 67.51 dollars (previous 67.38 dollars), Russian ESPD was 64.60 dollars (previous 64.15 dollars), Oman was 69.81 dollars (previous 69.43 dollars), Dubai was 69.98 dollars (previous 69.45 dollars), Cinta was 65.46 dollars (previous 65.20 dollars) [2]. - Domestic market: Daqing was 64.90 dollars (previous 64.71 dollars), Shengli was 65.11 dollars (previous 65.10 dollars), China gasoline wholesale price index was 7,919 yuan/ton (previous 7,929 yuan/ton), China diesel wholesale price index was 6,811 yuan/ton (previous 6,820 yuan/ton), FOB naphtha (Singapore) was 63.75 dollars (previous 63.31 dollars), aviation kerosene ex - factory price was 5,605 yuan/ton (previous 5,676 yuan/ton) [2]. Methanol - Port price was 257 dollars, East China was 2245 yuan, North China was 2220 yuan, South China was 2247 yuan, with price decreases in all regions [2]. Comment and Strategy Crude Oil - Geopolitical factors such as India - US tariff issues and Russia - Ukraine attacks on energy infrastructure have raised supply concerns. Interest - rate cut expectations may stimulate oil demand. US crude and product inventories decreased last week, and OPEC's production increase situation should be monitored [3]. Methanol - As of August 28, the domestic methanol overall plant operating rate was 72.19% (down 0.82 percentage points month - on - month but up 0.81 percentage points year - on - year), and the coal - to - olefins plant operating rate was 82.24% (up 0.83 percentage points month - on - month). Coastal methanol inventory was 129.95 tons (up 5.1 tons from August 21, a 4.08% increase and 19.71% higher year - on - year), and the estimated import volume from August 29 to September 14 is 94.05 - 95 tons. Methanol is short - term bullish [3].

Core Viewpoint - The methanol futures market is experiencing a downward trend due to increasing coastal inventory levels, with a slight decline in prices observed in the spot market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The main methanol futures contract MA2601 fell by 0.4% with an increase in open interest by 30,000 contracts, reaching a total of 780,000 contracts [1] - The spot price for methanol in the Taicang market is reported to be between 2,225 and 2,240 RMB per ton, indicating a continued decline in the coastal market [1] Group 2: Inventory Levels - Coastal methanol inventory reached 1.2995 million tons this week, an increase of 51,000 tons from the previous week, representing a growth rate of 4.08% [1] - The estimated available supply of methanol in coastal regions is 705,000 tons, with a notable increase in unloading of imported cargoes at ports this week [1] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The accumulation of coastal methanol inventory has slowed compared to previous periods, attributed to increased delivery volumes from public storage areas [1]

Group 1 - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June, marking two consecutive months of narrowing [1][6] - High-tech manufacturing profits shifted from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase in July, significantly boosting the overall profit growth rate of industrial enterprises [1][6] - From August 1 to 24, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 727,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 7%, with a cumulative retail of 7.182 million units in 2023, up 27% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.7625%, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan in the central bank's open market operations [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI for August in both the US and Eurozone rebounded above the critical point, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [2][9] - The real estate market continues to adjust, with second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities declining month-on-month, prompting the government to enhance macro policy effectiveness [2][9] Group 3 - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to increase by 3.03% from the same period last month, while exports are projected to rise significantly [3][25] - The dual-fuel market is experiencing a mixed trend, with iron and coke prices showing fluctuations amid stable demand and increasing inventory levels [3][23] Group 4 - The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit will take place from August 31 to September 1, 2025, in Tianjin, where member states will sign the "Tianjin Declaration" and approve the "10-Year Development Strategy of the SCO" [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The expectation of capacity reduction in South Korea's naphtha cracking has led to a rebound in the prices of olefin derivatives, which in turn has driven up the methanol price. However, the current situation at the port remains weak, with port inventories continuing to rise and downstream MTO in the maintenance cycle. The centralized maintenance period for coal - based methanol is gradually over, and the operating rate will increase in late August. This week, the inventory of inland factories has bottomed out and rebounded, while downstream orders have declined. For the downstream, formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season and is waiting for a further bottom - up recovery [3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Market News and Important Data - **Inland**: Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 470 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is 655 yuan/ton (unchanged). Inland methanol prices vary by region, with Inner Mongolia North Line at 2070 yuan/ton (unchanged), Inner Mongolia South Line at 2080 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shandong Linyi at 2345 yuan/ton (+11), etc. The inventory of inland factories has increased to 310,793 tons (+15,220), and the order backlog has decreased to 207,370 tons (-11,995) [1]. - **Port**: Taicang methanol is 2305 yuan/ton (+25), CFR China is 259 US dollars/ton (-2). The total port inventory has increased to 1,075,960 tons (+54,160), and the downstream MTO operating rate is 83.12% (-0.77%). There are also various regional price differences [2]. II. Market Analysis The expectation of capacity reduction in South Korea's naphtha cracking has driven up the prices of olefin derivatives and methanol. But the port situation is weak, with rising inventories and MTO in maintenance. The coal - based methanol maintenance period is over, and the operating rate will increase. Inland factory inventories have rebounded, and downstream orders have decreased. Formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season [3]. III. Strategy For single - side trading, inter - period trading, and cross - variety trading, the recommendation is to wait and see [4]. IV. Figures and Tables by Category - **Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure**: There are figures showing methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and inter - period spreads between different futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][22]. - **Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit**: Figures display the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, MTO profit in East China, and import profit (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread) [6][26][30]. - **Methanol Operating Rate, Inventory**: Figures show methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate, inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate [6][32][33]. - **Regional Price Differences**: Figures present price differences between different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest, East China - Inner Mongolia, etc. [6][37][45]. - **Traditional Downstream Profits**: Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products like Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE, and Henan dimethyl ether [6][50][55].

Industry Overview - As of August 14, domestic methanol overall operating load was 72.63%, a decrease of 0.54 percentage points month-on-month, but an increase of 0.59 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefins facilities was 81.41%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - By August 20, 2025, China's methanol port inventory totaled 1.076 million tons, an increase of 54,200 tons from the previous period, with East China and South China regions seeing inventory increases of 19,200 tons and 35,000 tons respectively [1] Market Sentiment - According to Wenkang Futures, coal prices are rising from the bottom, leading to higher methanol costs, but coal-to-methanol profits remain at a high level year-on-year. Domestic operating rates are gradually bottoming out and expected to rise marginally, while overseas facilities are returning to high operating levels, indicating increased imports ahead and significant supply pressure overall [2] - Demand remains weak, particularly in traditional sectors with low profits, and attention is on the actual demand situation during the upcoming peak season [2] - Olefin profits have improved, but port operations are low and demand performance is weak. Current methanol market conditions are weak, but demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak season, suggesting a high risk of further declines after recent price drops, with a recommendation to maintain a wait-and-see approach [2] Port Inventory Dynamics - Last week, methanol port inventory continued to accumulate, with East China's main storage areas seeing increased deliveries supported by limited transshipment and shipping, but stable external supply led to ongoing inventory build-up, indicating a bearish outlook [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Port remains weak with rapid inventory accumulation this week. Overseas methanol plants are operating at a high level, increasing the arrival pressure. The downstream MTO device, Xingxing, will be shut down for one - month maintenance starting at the end of July. There is a possibility of methanol production reduction in Shandong during the military parade. Inland methanol prices are stronger than those at the port. Inland factory inventory is low, and coal - based methanol production is on the rise, with further recovery expected at the end of August. Some downstream industries like acetic acid are seeing a decline in production, and formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season [2] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Figures show methanol basis in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong) against the main futures contract, and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [5][6][10][11][14][22][24] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures display Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), import spread between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [5][26][30][34] III. Methanol Production and Inventory - Figures present total port inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated plants) [5][36][38] IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures show price differences in different regions such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [5][40][47][50] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures illustrate the production margins of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [5][51][58] Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - period: Do reverse arbitrage on MA09 - 01 inter - period spread when it is high - Cross - variety: Narrow the spread between PP2601 and 3MA2601 when it is high [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of methanol has not changed significantly, and the basis is weakly consolidating. The port is experiencing inventory accumulation, with the basis continuing to be weak, while the inland is stronger than the port. The overall pattern is that the inland market is more robust [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., MA09 - 01) [6][10][23] 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the profit situation of methanol production (e.g., Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit), MTO profit (e.g., East China MTO profit of PP&EG type), and import profit (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread) [25][31] 3.3 Methanol开工, Inventory - Data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P开工 rate (including integrated units), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol开工 rate (including integrated units) are presented [34][36] 3.4 Regional Spreads - The report provides information on regional price differences, such as the spreads between different regions like Lubei - Northwest, Taicang - Inner Mongolia, and Guangdong - East China [38][49] 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures illustrate the production profits of traditional downstream products, including Shandong formaldehyde production profit, Jiangsu acetic acid production profit, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification production profit, and Henan dimethyl ether production profit [54][56] 4. Strategies - **Unilateral**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [3] - **Inter - period**: For the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread, conduct a reverse spread when the spread is high [3] - **Cross - variety**: When the spread is high, reduce the spread between PP2601 and 3MA2601 [3]