Core Viewpoint - The recent decision by OPEC and its partners to increase oil production has raised widespread questions about the sustainability of their policy shift from production cuts to increasing supply to capture market share [1][3]. Group 1: Background of Production Increase and Market Reaction - Eight major oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and the UAE, reached a consensus to increase production by an average of 547,000 barrels per day starting in September [1][3]. - The decision was based on relatively stable market fundamentals, with global oil inventories remaining low, and countries will adjust production flexibly according to market changes [3]. - The countries had previously implemented a voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day starting in November 2023, which was extended until March 2025 [3]. - International oil prices reacted sharply to the news, with Brent crude futures falling below $70 per barrel, reflecting market concerns about oversupply risks [3]. Group 2: Challenges to Policy Sustainability - The financial situation of oil-producing countries is a key constraint on the sustainability of the production increase policy, with Brent crude prices predicted to drop further to around $60 per barrel, below the breakeven point for major producers like Saudi Arabia [4]. - Weak global oil demand growth exacerbates the uncertainty of policy execution, with the IEA predicting a potential oversupply of 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter due to weak demand and increasing North American supply [4]. - OPEC officials indicated that future production plans would depend on market conditions, with suggestions to pause further increases if prices drop significantly [4]. - OPEC's next meeting is scheduled for September 7, where market conditions will be reassessed to inform policy adjustments [4]. - By the end of 2026, oil-producing countries retain two additional voluntary production cut measures, providing them with policy flexibility but also highlighting the inherent instability of the current increase policy [4].

Group 1 - OPEC+ is considering a significant increase in oil production quotas to restart idle capacity, but this has not yet translated into a substantial rise in actual production [1] - Despite an increase of approximately 1 million barrels per day in production quotas from March to June, the actual production increase remains negligible, particularly from Saudi Arabia [1] - The recent easing of supply restrictions by eight major OPEC+ members has shaken the global oil market, potentially increasing oil supply amid threats to oil demand from trade tensions [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley anticipates that OPEC+ will continue to increase quotas, predicting an additional supply increase of about 420,000 barrels per day from June to September, with half of this increase expected from Saudi Arabia [1] - The firm maintains a forecast of oversupply in the oil market, as non-OPEC+ countries are expected to increase crude oil supply by approximately 1.1 million barrels per day, surpassing the global demand growth of about 800,000 barrels per day [1] - Current Brent crude oil prices hover around $66 per barrel, reflecting an 11% decline since 2025, with Morgan Stanley predicting a price of $57.50 per barrel for the second half of the year [2]

Core Viewpoint - Mitsubishi UFJ Bank predicts a significant oversupply in the oil market this year due to slowing global oil demand growth and strong supply [1] Group 1 - Global oil demand growth is slowing, contributing to the anticipated oversupply in the market [1] - Strong supply levels are expected to exacerbate the oversupply situation in the oil market this year [1]