（原标题：干货满满！2026年基金策略会核心观点来了） 刚刚过去的2025年，注定是历史性的一年。 全球资本市场走过了一段并不平静的旅程。一边，是以生成式AI为代表的新一轮技术浪潮，加速渗透 产业链深处；一边，是利率周期的微妙拐点、全球资金在"高波动"与"低增长"之间反复权衡。 汇添富基金马磊:AI引领科技革命，把握三大核心投资主线 站在科技史的维度看，马磊博士给出的判断极为明确： 1.2025年，是全球第三次科技革命的"元年"； 2.生成式AI成为核心驱动力，技术迭代速度远超以往（每2-3个月就有新架构落地，大模型性能台阶式 提升）； 3.从AI编程、视频多模态，到智能搜索、AI导购，应用渗透率呈现爆发式增长。全球头部AI公司成立数 年，年化收入即突破200亿美元，创造历史； 叙事被拉伸、被压缩，也被不断重估。 市场正在发生的变化，已不再只是涨跌本身。资金的行为在改变，风险偏好的锚在移动，过去依赖单一 逻辑的定价方式，正在被更复杂、更结构化的框架所替代。 站在2026年的门槛前，讨论的焦点也随之发生转移。相比"短期方向"，市场更关心的是：哪些力量正在 成为长期变量？哪些结构又在发生巨变？ 正是在这样的宏观背 ...

作者：圈儿姑娘 红利基金不仅规模扩张，分红行为也备受关注。1月7日，华泰柏瑞、中欧旗下两只红利指数基金同步宣布2026年首次分红，进一步强化其"稳定现金流"标 签。 业内人士指出，在无风险利率下行、险资等中长期资金寻求久期匹配资产的背景下，红利资产的吸引力持续提升。华安基金表示，上市公司分红力度加 大，叠加港股红利估值优势，2026年红利板块——尤其是港股红利——有望继续获得增量资金青睐。 上银基金亦认为，追求低波动、稳收益的资金仍将把红利作为核心底仓。红利策略，正从阶段性热点演变为长期配置主线。 近年来，红利策略持续升温，2025年公募新发65只红利基金，募资超300亿元；截至2026年初，全市场红利基金总规模已突破3100亿元。在低利率与中长 期资金入市背景下，高股息、低波动的红利资产正成为机构与个人投资者的核心配置选择。 红利赛道加速扩容，产品策略日益多元 2025年红利基金发行明显提速：下半年新成立39只，远超上半年的26只。产品形态也从传统红利指数向"红利+低波""红利+央企"等细分策略延伸。仅2024 年和2025年，新成立的红利ETF及联接基金就分别达35只和30只，远超2022年以前年均个位数 ...

2.红利指数在调仓中体现出显著的低估值偏好：剔除的公司估值普遍高于纳入的公司，这种机制不仅保 障了股息收益的持续性，也通过行业权重的动态平衡（如银行行业权重从2019年的不足10%提升至当前 的21.9%），避免组合过度依赖单一行业，增强了指数的适应性和长期稳健性。 3.红利指数的核心机制在于通过严格的股息率筛选构建出盈利稳定、现金流充沛的组合，如中证红利指 数选取过去三年平均股息率最高的100只股票，从而在利率下行周期中提供兼具股性与债性的复合收益 特征。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 杨正旺认为，红利策略是适宜长期持有的策略，A股的红利指数长期收益明显优于沪深300： 1.红利指数能够持续保持高股息特征和估值优势。以中证红利指数为例，选取过去三年平均股息率最高 的100只股票，且每半年定期调仓，依据最新股息率数据"高抛低吸"，历史数据显示，这种动态调整能 有效维持指数整体股息率水平（如近五年指数上涨约33%，股息率仍保持在6%左右）。 格隆汇1月8日｜在今日举行的《2026潮起新程·开门红联名策略会》上，易方达基金杨正旺深入剖析当 成长风格占优时，红利策略的前景如何？ ...

浪潮已至，新程将启。 站在时代的十字路口，我们感受到的，早已不只是日历翻页，更是一场正在发生的深层变革。 2026，并非一个被讨论的未来，它已是正在展开的现实。科技跃迁、全球格局重组、资本逻辑重写，多股力量正在同一时间叠加。 问题不在于"会不会发生"，而在于——你是否已经站在信息出现的地方。 历史从不提前公告。我们正在跨过的，不只是一个年份，更是一条认知分界线。 旧框架正在失效，新线索正在形成。有人已经看见轮廓，有人仍停留在旧地图里。 全球流动性结构正在变化，AI技术进入加速演进区间，资本、科技、生产力之间的联动，比以往任何时候都更紧密。 变化正在发生。而真正稀缺的，从来不是结论，而是第一时间的判断素材与底层逻辑。 越是变化剧烈，越需要站在高处看清脉络。越是噪音密集，越要接近源头。 正因如此，格隆汇、腾讯理财通携手广发基金、汇添富基金、易方达基金，集结当下极具实战深度与研究密度的专业力量，共同呈现——《2026潮起新程·开 门红联名策略会》。 这不止于一次简单的观点分享，而是一场从全球宏观视角出发，直抵科技、资金与资产配置底层逻辑的深度线上私享会。 金融学博士、著名经济学家、格隆汇创始人 格隆 博士，将站在全 ...

2026年01月07日 固收+基金:2025 年度策略回顾与 2026 年度策略展望 公募基金年度策略报告 肖逸芳 A0230524110001 xiaovf@swsresearch.com 蒋辛 A0230521080002 jiangxin@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 申万宏源研究微信服务 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 证券分析师 0 哪类产品的业绩最突出? 1）2025 年，固收+基金业绩喜人，收益、最大回撤中位数为 4.86%、-2.03%，展现"稳中求进"特性;2)基金公司维度看,头部基金公司中平均收益 最高的是华商基金和景顺长城基金；3）2025年，大规模固收+基金业绩表现不一，在同 策略产品中业绩靠前的产品包括永赢稳健增强、景顺长城景颐丰利等，绝对收益较高的产 品包括景顺长城景颐丰利、富国优化增强、鹏华双债加利等。 亮点固收+团队背景及产品布局分析：1）景顺长城基金：2025年，景顺长城基金旗下固 ● 收+基金规模上升超千亿,其固收+业务的发展脉络呈现出多团队竞争、股债基金经理合 ...

2026 年 01 月 07 日 固收+基金:2025 年度策略回顾与 2026 年度策略展望 ——公募基金年度策略报告 相关研究 证券分析师 肖逸芳 A0230524110001 xiaoyf@swsresearch.com 蒋辛 A0230521080002 jiangxin@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 肖逸芳 A0230524110001 xiaoyf@swsresearch.com ⚫ 哪类固收+基金最受投资者欢迎？2025 年固收+基金迎来新一轮的快速扩容，总规模达 到 1.93 万亿，其中 Q1、Q2 规模上升最快的产品类型为低仓位型固收+，Q3 资金集中 流入中高仓位固收+基金且以二级债基为主。规模增长超百亿的基金达到 21 只，市场呈 现"百花齐放"态势。除传统策略外，港股策略、科技成长主题、周期主题、进攻型策略以 及由权益基金经理管理的固收+产品均获得资金青睐。 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in new A-share accounts in 2025, reaching 27.44 million, a 9.75% year-on-year growth, marking the highest annual figure since 2022 [2][3] - The data indicates a strong correlation between new account openings and market conditions, with a notable increase in new accounts during the second half of the year, particularly in December, which saw a 30.54% year-on-year increase [2][3] - Individual investors remain the primary force in account openings, with 27.33 million new personal accounts, while institutional accounts surged by 35% to 104,500, indicating a structural shift in the market [3][4] Group 2 - The growth in new accounts is attributed to a shift in asset allocation towards equity markets, driven by the adjustment in the real estate market and the performance of sectors like AI and new energy, which resonate with younger investors [3][4] - Policy initiatives aimed at enhancing the capital market environment, including lowering transaction costs and promoting long-term capital inflows, have significantly boosted market attractiveness [4][5] - Analysts express optimism for the A-share market in 2026, anticipating a continued "slow bull" market driven by incremental capital and steady corporate earnings recovery [5][6] Group 3 - The expected drivers for the A-share market in 2026 include a transformation in corporate profit structures, sufficient valuation recovery potential, and increased liquidity from insurance funds and high-net-worth individuals [6][7] - Different institutions predict various investment focuses, including technology innovation, advanced manufacturing, upstream cycles, and domestic consumption, reflecting a consensus on the market's potential [7][8] - Goldman Sachs forecasts a transition from a "hope" phase to a "growth" phase in the Chinese stock market, with a projected 14% profit growth in 2026 and a potential 38% increase by the end of 2027 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of dividend strategies in the A-share market has been relatively muted in 2025, despite the overall market reaching new highs, raising questions about the effectiveness of these strategies as a stable investment option [1][3]. Group 1: Performance Analysis - Over the past decade, major dividend indices have shown annualized returns between 10% and 15%, indicating solid long-term performance [3]. - In 2025, the Shanghai Dividend Index recorded a return of only 0.41%, while the CSI Dividend Index performed slightly better at 3.76% [4][5]. - The muted performance in 2025 can be attributed to two main factors: a digestion phase following a significant rise in 2024 and a market dominated by growth stocks, particularly in AI and technology sectors [5][6]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Three key factors have influenced the dividend strategy's performance in 2025: 1. Style rotation suppression, as the A-share market has been dominated by a growth style since 2024, leading to a decline in interest for value-oriented dividend strategies [6]. 2. Increased uncertainty in geopolitical and policy environments, which can enhance the appeal of dividend strategies as a defensive measure during market volatility [6]. 3. Changes in government bond yields, where rising yields have reduced the attractiveness of dividends relative to bonds, impacting the dividend strategy's appeal [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook for 2026 - The future performance of dividend strategies in 2026 will depend on several factors: 1. The duration of the growth style's dominance in the market, with a potential need for a shift in market conditions for dividend strategies to recover [8]. 2. The ongoing performance of the "low volatility" factor, which may underperform in the early stages of a bull market but could regain traction as market conditions evolve [9]. 3. Internal differentiation within dividend strategies based on macroeconomic conditions, where sectors like manufacturing may benefit in a recovering economy, while stable high-dividend sectors may perform better in a low-rate environment [10]. Group 4: Investment Considerations - The underlying logic of dividend strategies remains focused on stable cash flow and long-term returns, while adaptability to macroeconomic and market style fluctuations is essential [11]. - The dividend yield of the S&P China A-share Large Cap Dividend Low Volatility 50 Index has returned to over 5%, indicating a potential favorable investment opportunity following recent market corrections [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuation of the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index, which experienced a decline of approximately 0.4% in early trading on January 7, with component stocks showing mixed performance [1] - Notable stocks such as Jiashitang, China Chemical, Anfu Technology, Mona Lisa, and Nanshan Aluminum saw gains, indicating selective strength within the market [1] - The largest free cash flow ETF (159201) has seen a continuous net inflow of funds totaling 641 million yuan over the past four days, reaching a new high of 9.213 billion yuan since its inception [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities' research report suggests that the A-share market is experiencing an improvement in liquidity, driven by cross-border capital inflows and the upcoming insurance "New Year" funds entering the market [1] - The report indicates that the recovery of the RMB exchange rate may boost market sentiment and potentially lead to incremental capital through corporate and household sectors [1] - Free cash flow is emphasized as the foundation for dividend distribution, focusing on a company's internal growth capabilities, while dividend strategies emphasize the results of dividend distribution [1] Group 3 - The free cash flow strategy is noted to complement growth stock investments, serving as a foundational tool for balancing such investments [1] - The free cash flow ETF (159201) and its linked funds (A: 023917; C: 023918) closely track the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index, with management fees at 0.15% and custody fees at 0.05%, representing the lowest rates in the market [1]

Group 1 - The central enterprise leaders' meeting held on December 22-23, 2025, emphasized strengthening market value management and shareholder returns for listed companies, which is expected to enhance the profitability and dividend capacity of state-owned enterprises [1][7] - The high-dividend sectors, represented by non-ferrous metals and non-bank financials, showed active performance in the market following the meeting [1][7] Group 2 - The Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (561580) has attracted significant capital inflow, accumulating 358 million yuan since November 19, 2025, with its latest scale reaching 1.023 billion yuan and 825 million shares, marking increases of 60% and 56% respectively since the beginning of 2025 [2][8] - The ETF tracks the China Securities Central Enterprises Dividend Index, which is noted for having the highest "central enterprise purity" among current market dividend strategies, with a dividend yield of 4.95% [2][8] Group 3 - The Central Enterprises Dividend Index demonstrated strong resilience in a relatively volatile market, with its total return index rising by 10.61% in 2025, outperforming other mainstream A-share dividend indices [3][9] - The Central Enterprise Dividend ETF is managed by Huatai-PB Fund, which has a diverse range of dividend strategy ETFs, collectively known as the "Dividend Family Bucket," with a total management scale of 51.262 billion yuan [3][9]