8月1日，华尔街传奇投资家吉姆·罗杰斯（Jim Rogers）在诺亚控股于新加坡举办的"全球华人财富管理 与传承"峰会上表示，其目前仅持有全球两个国家的股票，中国是其中之一，已清空所有美国股票。 他认为，下一次美国经济危机将是他有生以来最严重的。 吉姆·罗杰斯 图片来源：每经记者 孔泽思 摄 华尔街大佬：已清仓美股 持有中国股票和黄金、白银 吉姆·罗杰斯生于1942年，为传奇投资家、旅行家。1970年，他与索罗斯成立量子基金。1973年~1980年 期间，量子基金累计收益率达4200%，同期标普500指数涨幅约47%。他于1998年创立罗杰斯国际商品 指数。随后的十年，该指数上涨了4倍，而标普500指数同期涨幅约为40%。此外，他曾骑摩托车环游世 界，创下多项吉尼斯纪录。 吉姆·罗杰斯表示其持有中国多个行业的股票，尤其看好旅游业前景。"中国所有行业都具备潜力，旅游 业尤其如此。过去几百年，中国人很少旅游。如今，中国人可以出境旅游。他们渴望看世界，外国人亦 希望了解中国。旅游业、酒店业拥有良好前景。" 吉姆·罗杰斯感叹中国过去几十年的巨变。"1984年，我第一次去中国时看到的是一个与现在相比完全不 同的世界。中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian Supreme Court asserts that the United States' imposition of higher tariffs on Brazil is intended to create a severe economic crisis, exert pressure on the judicial system, and interfere with court cases [1] Group 1 - The Brazilian Supreme Court's statement highlights concerns over U.S. trade policies and their potential impact on Brazil's economy [1] - The assertion indicates a belief that external economic pressures are being used to influence domestic judicial matters in Brazil [1] - The situation reflects broader tensions in international trade relations, particularly between Brazil and the United States [1]

Group 1: Political Context - Suriname has elected its first female president, Jennifer Simons, marking a significant milestone in the country's 50-year history of independence [1][2] - Simons' party, the National Democratic Party, won 18 out of 51 seats in the National Assembly, forming a coalition with other parties to secure a two-thirds majority [2][3] - Simons aims to transcend partisan politics and serve as a president for all citizens, emphasizing national unity and service [2] Group 2: Economic Challenges - Suriname is facing severe economic challenges, including high debt and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has led to widespread poverty [4][5] - Approximately 20% of Suriname's population lives below the poverty line, making it one of the poorest countries in South America [4] - The new government plans to stabilize the national finances by improving the tax system and increasing revenue from the small-scale gold mining sector [5] Group 3: Oil Development Prospects - Suriname is on the brink of an oil boom, with the Grand Moerugoe oil field set to begin production in 2028, led by TotalEnergies [5] - The oil reserves discovered in Suriname may allow it to compete with neighboring Guyana, which has seen significant economic growth due to its oil sector [6] - The success of Suriname's oil development will depend on the effectiveness of Simons' government over the next five years [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of wealth transfer during economic crises, emphasizing that each crisis presents opportunities for ordinary individuals to advance their wealth through strategic investments in real estate, internet industries, and potentially the capital market in the future [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Wealth Transfers - The first major wealth transfer occurred in the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union, driven by industrialization and urbanization, which led to significant shifts in land ownership and wealth concentration in real estate [1][2]. - The second wealth transfer happened after the 2008 global financial crisis, primarily benefiting those in the internet industry, as capital shifted from real estate to online platforms, allowing companies to monetize user data [2][3]. Group 2: Future Wealth Transfer - A potential third wealth transfer is anticipated in the next 5-10 years, influenced by the current economic downturn and the movement of funds from bank deposits to other sectors [3][4]. - The focus of this future transfer will likely be on the capital market, as the government aims to stimulate consumption and investment, redirecting funds to areas that require growth, particularly the financial market [3][5]. Group 3: Economic Development Stages - The article outlines two critical stages for a country to become a major power: first, becoming an industrial power to ensure economic security, and second, evolving into a financial power to protect national wealth and support enterprise development [6][7]. - The transition to a financial power is essential for sustaining economic growth and preventing wealth loss, as illustrated by historical examples like the Soviet Union [7][8]. Group 4: Capital Market Potential - The article posits that the future of wealth distribution may shift from real estate to the capital market, with the potential for significant inflows of capital if the market can demonstrate profitability [15][16]. - The anticipated growth in the capital market is linked to advancements in technology and a decline in U.S. monetary dominance, suggesting a promising outlook for the Chinese capital market [16][17]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - While the capital market may present opportunities, the article advises caution in stock trading due to the current global economic uncertainty and the risks associated with individual trading decisions [17][20]. - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balanced investment strategy, prioritizing stable returns over speculative stock investments during periods of market volatility [21][22].

Economic Crisis: Trump's Fatal Weakness - The economic reality is severely undermining Trump's promise to middle and lower-class voters, as evidenced by a surge in credit card delinquency rates to 3.05%, the highest since 2011, and a GDP contraction of 0.3% in Q1 2025 [1][4] - Consumer confidence is declining, manufacturing orders are weak, and unemployment claims are rising, indicating a deepening economic crisis that threatens Trump's core support base [1][4] - Analysts predict a potential 25% drop in the U.S. stock market, with the S&P 500 index possibly falling to 4500 points, signaling an unprecedented economic disaster [1][4] Wall Street's Silent Protest: A Harsh Economic Reality - Concerns from Wall Street regarding Trump's economic policies are evident, with warnings from analysts highlighting the severity of the economic crisis [2][4] - The pressures of credit card bills, rising prices, and increasing unemployment are directly impacting the lives of ordinary citizens, leading to growing distrust in Trump's administration [4] Congressional Rift: A Silent Challenge to Presidential Power - Trump's military action against Iran has intensified political divisions within the U.S., with strong condemnation from Democratic leaders and dissent within the Republican Party [6] - A rare bipartisan effort in Congress to draft a resolution limiting presidential war powers signals deep fractures within the political system, posing a significant challenge to Trump's authority [6] The Echo of Iran's "Missile": Trump's Political Dilemma - The military action against Iran has triggered a domino effect, exposing the intertwined political and economic challenges facing Trump [8][9] - The combination of economic decline, political fragmentation, and rising public discontent presents a formidable challenge to Trump's governance, with the 2026 midterm elections looming as a critical juncture for his political future [8][9]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is facing an unprecedented crisis, with a significant risk of economic collapse due to long-term accumulated issues [1] - The U.S. GDP contracted by 0.5% in Q1, marking the first economic shrinkage in three years, which is a substantial downward revision from initial expectations [1] Employment and Unemployment - Unemployment claims have reached a three-and-a-half-year high, indicating a deeper economic weakness despite a seemingly stable low unemployment rate [3] - The low unemployment rate is misleading, as it is influenced by government actions against illegal immigration, leading to job vacancies rather than genuine economic prosperity [3] Trade and Economic Impact - The trade deficit is widening, with net imports dragging down GDP by 4.7% in Q1 and exports declining by 0.4%, contrary to expectations of trade growth from tariff policies [4] - The pause in the trade war has not resulted in the anticipated trade boom, exacerbating the economic situation [4] Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's previously strong stance against interest rate cuts is wavering under market pressure, reflecting growing concerns about the economic crisis [6] - The Trump administration is pushing for interest rate cuts as a response to the economic downturn [6] Trade Agreements and Economic Strategy - The Trump administration is seeking to negotiate a trade agreement with China to stimulate exports, particularly in oil and natural gas, as a potential solution to the economic challenges [7] - The strategy involves relying on both Federal Reserve rate cuts and international trade agreements to boost the economy [7] Capital Flight and Investor Sentiment - There is a significant capital outflow, with nearly a quarter of investors selling U.S. stocks due to concerns over unpredictable U.S. policies, reflecting a lack of confidence in the economic outlook [8] - The dollar index has dropped nearly 11% since Trump's presidency began, indicating international capital's apprehension regarding the U.S. economy [8] Conclusion - The U.S. economy is in a precarious situation, with the Trump administration facing immense challenges in addressing the crisis, and the effectiveness of its strategies remains uncertain [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the South Korean economy is currently in a state of crisis, as stated by President Lee Jae-myung [1] Group 2 - The economic situation is characterized by significant challenges that may impact various sectors and industries within South Korea [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential signs of a new economic crisis in the U.S., drawing parallels to the 1929 Great Depression, as predicted by Tesla's CEO Elon Musk [1][17] - It highlights the causes of the 1929 Great Depression, including excessive consumer credit and inflation driven by overproduction and insufficient purchasing power among the populace [5][10][12] Group 2 - The article outlines the impact of World War I on the U.S. economy, leading to a false sense of prosperity and increased consumer spending, which was unsustainable [6][8] - It emphasizes the widening wealth gap and the imbalance between production and consumption, with urban areas experiencing greater economic growth compared to rural areas [10][12] Group 3 - The article describes the speculative bubbles in real estate and the stock market during the late 1920s, fueled by easy credit and investor enthusiasm, which ultimately led to the stock market crash [13][16] - It details the catastrophic consequences of the stock market crash on the U.S. economy, including widespread bankruptcies and soaring unemployment rates [16][18] Group 4 - The article draws attention to current economic risks in the U.S., including inflation, stock market volatility, and rising unemployment, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions [18][20][22] - It notes the significant inflation rate of 7.9% in early 2022, alongside a GDP decline of 1.4%, indicating economic instability [20]

Core Viewpoint - Lebanon is facing its most severe challenges since the civil war, with ongoing economic crises and the aftermath of prolonged conflicts, despite a ceasefire agreement reached in November 2024 [1][12]. Economic Conditions - The waste recycling economy is emerging in war-torn areas, with individuals scavenging for valuable materials to earn money [3]. - Food prices have skyrocketed by 65 times since 2018 due to a lack of price control and exploitation by merchants [3]. - The Lebanese pound has depreciated significantly, with the exchange rate reaching 89,000 LBP to 1 USD, drastically altering consumer purchasing habits [5]. Humanitarian Efforts - Humanitarian organizations are increasing efforts to provide essential supplies to returnees, but demand far exceeds supply [3]. - A significant portion of the population is still displaced, with only about 15% of residents in southern border villages returning home after the conflict [5]. Historical Context - Beirut was once known as the "Paris of the Middle East," thriving economically and politically until the civil war began in 1975, which caused extensive damage and loss [9][11]. - The civil war resulted in approximately 150,000 deaths and economic losses estimated at 1 trillion USD [11]. Political Landscape - Lebanon's governance is characterized by a sectarian power-sharing system, which complicates decision-making and hinders significant reforms [16][18]. - The political system has led to a concentration of power among a few families, making it difficult to implement necessary economic changes [16][18]. Future Outlook - Experts suggest that Lebanon needs to shift its economic focus from banking and real estate to sustainable agriculture, clean energy, and digital economy [18]. - Comprehensive economic reforms, including restructuring the banking system and attracting foreign investment, are essential for recovery [18].

Core Viewpoint - The supply pressure in the residual oil market has decreased in April, but downstream demand remains limited, leading to an overall decline in prices, with a slight narrowing of the decline [1][2][4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - In April, the average price of low-sulfur residual oil was 4260 yuan/ton, down 370 yuan/ton or 7.99% from the beginning of the month, while the average price of medium-sulfur residual oil was 4080 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton or 5.56% [1]. - The average operating load of domestic major refineries in April was 75.35%, a decrease of 3.32 percentage points month-on-month, while the average operating load of Shandong independent refineries was 54.74%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points [6]. - The actual external supply of residual oil in April was around 360,000 tons, a decrease of 27.21% month-on-month, indicating a tightening supply situation [6]. Price Trends - The international oil price showed a trend of continuous decline followed by moderate rebound, with the WTI average price at $62.96/barrel, down $4.98/barrel or 7.33% month-on-month, and the Brent average price at $66.46/barrel, down $5.01/barrel or 7.01% [4]. - The average profit of Shandong independent refineries' coking units in April was 337 yuan/ton, down 101 yuan/ton from the previous month, indicating reduced profitability and lower procurement willingness for residual oil [8]. Future Outlook - For May, residual oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with limited upward momentum due to weak downstream demand and continued weakening of cost support [10][11]. - The forecast for low-sulfur residual oil prices is between 4015-4380 yuan/ton, while medium-sulfur residual oil prices are expected to range from 3850-4200 yuan/ton [12].