Group 1 - The core candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair are Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, and Kevin Walsh, as stated by President Trump [4][5][6] - Trump's criticism of Jerome Powell's decision to maintain interest rates has intensified, especially following the release of weak employment data [6][8] - The latest non-farm payroll report indicates only 22,000 jobs were added in August, significantly below expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% [8][10] Group 2 - Investors are increasingly betting on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in mid-September, and a possibility of a 50 basis point cut [9][10] - The current employment data suggests that initiating a rate cut is reasonable, drawing parallels to past instances where the Fed acted in response to weak job growth [9][10] - The employment market in the U.S. is showing signs of weakness, with a "tight balance" state where employees find it increasingly difficult to secure new jobs after layoffs [10]

Group 1 - The global financial market is closely watching the Jackson Hole event, interpreting Jerome Powell's upcoming speech as a reaffirmation of a hawkish stance [1] - The unexpected surge in the Producer Price Index (PPI) serves as a warning about cost-push inflation, providing hawkish members of the Federal Reserve with ammunition to resist rate cuts [1] - There are signs of a global economic slowdown, with central banks in Australia, New Zealand, and China expected to adopt more accommodative policies, putting pressure on the Fed to maintain its tightening stance [1][2] Group 2 - Powell is balancing the need to address inflation concerns while acknowledging economic downturn risks, emphasizing "data dependency" to maintain credibility while allowing for flexible policy adjustments [2] - Market reactions will be nuanced; if Powell's speech aligns with expectations, there may be little volatility, but a more hawkish tone could trigger a risk-off sentiment, impacting the dollar and stock prices [2] - Investors must prepare for multiple policy scenarios, emphasizing the importance of flexibility and keen insight into key data in this uncertain environment [3][4]

Group 1 - Global investor sentiment is at its highest level since February 2025, indicating increased optimism among investors [1] - The likelihood of a hard landing for the economy has decreased to the lowest level since January 2025, suggesting improved economic stability [1] - The allocation to stocks has increased, although it has not yet reached extreme levels, reflecting a cautious but positive outlook [1] Group 2 - 78% of respondents expect short-term interest rates to decline within the next 12 months, indicating expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy [1] - 20% of respondents believe that Waller is the most likely candidate to become the next Federal Reserve Chair, while 19% favor Haskett and 15% favor Waller, showing varied opinions on future leadership [1]

Group 1 - The core view of the company is that the current economic scenario is still leaning towards a "soft landing," with only a slight increase in the probability of a "no landing" scenario to 25% and a decrease in the "hard landing" scenario to 10% [1] - The resilience of the U.S. labor market continues to support the "soft landing" scenario, with stable job growth and corporate profitability not being challenged [1][2] - The company observes signs of recovery in the Eurozone, particularly in Germany, indicating a clearer path for economic recovery despite the lack of synchronized growth across the region [3] Group 2 - The U.K. economy remains weak, with growth expected to be particularly sluggish in Q2 2025, but the company believes it is nearing a turning point for recovery due to improving credit conditions and stable real income [4] - The company expresses a cautious stance on long-duration bonds due to rising risks associated with long-term national debt, while favoring covered bonds and mortgage-backed securities for their attractive spreads and lower volatility [5] - In the credit market, the company has generally downgraded the outlook for various credit assets due to historically low credit spreads, although it maintains a preference for high-quality short-term bonds [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Board members are focused on their responsibilities rather than the President's comments, maintaining stable market inflation expectations despite presidential remarks [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Federal Reserve's Focus - Federal Reserve Governor Waller emphasized that the board members are concentrating on their duties and not on the President's statements [1] Inflation Expectations - The market's inflation expectations remain stable, with no signs of rising long-term inflation expectations observed [1] Economic Stability - The primary goal of the Federal Reserve is to prevent an economic hard landing [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller emphasizes the importance of avoiding an economic hard landing [1] - Ongoing tariffs may trigger a chain reaction of impacts on the economy [1] - There has been no observed increase in long-term inflation expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller emphasizes the importance of avoiding an economic hard landing, indicating a focus on maintaining economic stability and growth [1] Group 1 - Waller's comments reflect a proactive approach by the Federal Reserve to manage economic risks and ensure a smooth transition in monetary policy [1] - The statement suggests that the Federal Reserve is closely monitoring economic indicators to prevent potential downturns [1] - Waller's remarks highlight the central bank's commitment to balancing inflation control with economic growth [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index: Bullish with fluctuations [5] - Treasury bonds: Neutral [5] - Rebar: Neutral [7] - Iron ore: Neutral [7] - Coking coal and coke: Neutral [8][9] - Copper: Neutral [11] - Aluminum: Bearish [13] - Nickel: Neutral [15] - Tin: Neutral [17] - Gold: Neutral [18] - Silver: Neutral [18] - PVC: Bearish [21] - Soda ash: Bearish for the 01 contract [33] - Caustic soda: Bearish [23] - Styrene: Bearish [26] - Rubber: Bearish [28] - Urea: Bearish [30] - Methanol: Bearish [31] - Polyolefins: Neutral [32] - Cotton and cotton yarn: Bullish with fluctuations [35] - Apples: Neutral [35] - PTA: Neutral [36] - Live pigs: Bearish [38] - Eggs: Bearish [40] - Corn: Bullish with fluctuations [41] - Soybean meal: Bullish [42] - Oils and fats: Neutral [46] Core Views - The index may fluctuate strongly due to increased market trading volume and a shift in hotspots from new consumption to the TMT sector after the China-US leaders' call [5] - The bond market is expected to remain stable, with short - term varieties benefiting directly from the current relatively loose policy, but multiple disturbing factors still exist [5] - The prices of most commodities in the black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, cotton textile industry chain, and agricultural livestock sectors are expected to fluctuate, with some showing a downward or upward trend depending on supply - demand fundamentals, macro - policies, and other factors [7][11][21] Summary by Category Macro - finance - Index: Expected to fluctuate strongly due to China - US relations and market hot - spot shifts [5] - Treasury bonds: Suggested to wait and see. Focus on the roll - over of the 0.7 trillion 6M repurchase on the 16th [5] Black Building Materials - Rebar: The price is at a relatively low level, and the supply - demand is balanced. It may accumulate inventory slightly in the future, with a suggested wait - and - see approach [7] - Iron ore: The price is affected by macro news, and the port inventory is expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to wait and see [7] - Coking coal and coke: The supply - demand contradiction is deepening, and the price may fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to supply - side news, profit - repair rhythm, and import coal costs [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The fundamentals still support the price, and it may remain volatile before the holiday. Pay attention to the position of nearby contracts [11] - Aluminum: The supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. The short - term price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to hold short positions in Shanghai Aluminum and try to go long on alumina at low levels [13][14] - Nickel: The cost is firm, but the medium - long - term supply is excessive. It is recommended to wait and see or go short at high prices [15] - Tin: The supply - demand gap is improving, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended for interval trading [17] - Gold and silver: Affected by US tariffs and Fed policies, the prices are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended for interval trading [18] Energy Chemicals - PVC: Weak cost and demand, high production and inventory. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to tariff negotiations and domestic stimulus policies [21] - Soda ash: The 01 contract is recommended to go short. The spot is weak, and the upward space of the futures price is limited [33] - Caustic soda: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to factors such as alumina production and 6 - 8 month maintenance [23] - Styrene: The supply - demand is becoming loose, and it is recommended to go short at high prices. Pay attention to crude oil trends and tariff progress [26] - Rubber: The demand is not improved, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to macro news [28] - Urea: The supply exceeds demand. It is not recommended to buy at the bottom. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options or waiting for price stability [30] - Methanol: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is stable. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 2150 - 2300 [31] - Polyolefins: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to downstream demand and policies [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton: Globally, the supply - demand is loose, but due to improved China - US relations, the price is expected to fluctuate and rebound [35] - Apples: The market is stable, and the price is expected to remain high and fluctuate [35] - PTA: Affected by falling oil prices and weakening downstream demand, the price is under short - term pressure. Pay attention to geopolitical influences [36] Agricultural Livestock - Live pigs: The supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to go short at resistance levels [38] - Eggs: The short - term demand is weak, and the long - term supply may increase. It is recommended to go short at high prices [40] - Corn: The short - term price has support, and the medium - long - term supply - demand is tightening. It is recommended to go long at the lower limit of the range and pay attention to substitutes [41] - Soybean meal: The short - term is range - bound, and the medium - long - term is bullish. It is recommended to operate in the range and go long after callbacks [42] - Oils and fats: The trends are differentiated. It is recommended for interval trading and pay attention to the spread between oil and meal [46]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock Index: Defensive Observation [1][5] - Treasury Bonds: Bullish in the Short Term [5] - Rebar: Temporarily Observe [1][7] - Iron Ore: Oscillate Weakly [1][7] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillate [1][9] - Copper: Cautious Trading within Range [1][12] - Aluminum: Observe [1][14] - Nickel: Observe or Short on Highs [1][15] - Tin: Range Trading [1][17] - Gold: Build Long Positions on Lows after Full Price Correction [1][19] - Silver: Range Trading [1][19] - PVC: Oscillate Weakly [1][22] - Soda Ash: Observe [1][31] - Caustic Soda: Oscillate Weakly [1][24] - Rubber: Oscillate Weakly [1][25] - Urea: Oscillate [1][28] - Methanol: Wide - Range Oscillation [1][29] - Plastic: Wide - Range Oscillation [1][30] - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Oscillate and Rebound [1][33] - Apple: Oscillate [1][33] - PTA: Range Oscillation [1][35] - Live Pigs: Oscillate Weakly [1][37] - Eggs: Short on Highs [1][39] - Corn: High - Level Oscillation [1][40] - Soybean Meal: Cautiously Chase Highs, Go Long on Pullbacks [1][42] - Oils and Fats: Short on Highs [1][47] Core Views - The global market is affected by factors such as tariff policies, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic data. Different commodities show various trends and investment opportunities due to their unique fundamentals and macro - environmental impacts. For example, tariff issues bring uncertainties to the market, while supply - demand imbalances determine the price trends of commodities [5][22][37]. Summary by Category Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: Due to international tariff threats, domestic market rotation, and weak main - line driving forces, the stock index may oscillate weakly. It is recommended to adopt a defensive observation strategy [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the issuance of a large amount of interest - rate bonds, the biggest negative factor in the market has been digested. With the clear attitude of monetary policy support, the bond market is expected to oscillate upwards [5]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The supply - demand contradiction is gradually emerging as demand weakens seasonally and steel mills have no strong intention to cut production. With low - level valuation, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Although affected by some events, the overall supply is increasing, and demand may decline slightly. It is recommended to observe as the 09 contract is expected to oscillate [7]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal prices face downward pressure due to sufficient supply and weakening demand. Coke also has supply - demand contradictions, and both are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Despite some weakening in fundamentals, low inventory still supports prices. The Shanghai copper may maintain an oscillating pattern before the holiday, and it is recommended to trade cautiously within the range [12]. - **Aluminum**: With the increase in alumina price and complex supply - demand situations, and the possible impact of trade negotiations on exports, it is recommended to observe [14]. - **Nickel**: The cost is firm, but there is an oversupply in the medium - long term. It is recommended to observe or short on highs as it is expected to oscillate weakly [15]. - **Tin**: Supply recovery expectations and the impact of tariff policies on demand may increase price volatility. It is recommended to trade within the range [17]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, inflation data, and tariff policies, prices are expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to build long positions on lows after price corrections [19]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With weak demand, over - capacity, and high inventory, the price is in a weak position. Although there is short - term tariff relief, the impact on demand still exists. The price is expected to oscillate, and macro - news should be continuously monitored [22]. - **Caustic Soda**: In June, it may show a situation of weak supply and demand. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term and be shorted in the medium term. Attention should be paid to factors such as inventory and downstream demand [24]. - **Rubber**: Although there is short - term support at the bottom, the supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [25]. - **Urea**: Supply is stable, and demand is expected to be released. The price is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to pressure and support levels [28]. - **Methanol**: Supply is relatively abundant, and downstream demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate within a wide range [29]. - **Plastic**: Supply pressure is relieved, but downstream demand is still weak. It is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as downstream demand and policies [30]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is still at a high level, but the expectation of maintenance is increasing. Downstream demand is not optimistic. It is recommended to observe in the short term and pay attention to short - term price drops and 9 - 1 positive spread opportunities [31]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Although global supply - demand is still loose, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations may lead to an oscillating rebound in cotton prices [33]. - **Apple**: With the approach of the Dragon Boat Festival, low inventory supports prices, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level [33]. - **PTA**: Affected by the decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of downstream polyester demand, the price is under short - term pressure and is expected to oscillate within a range [34]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: Supply is increasing and postponed, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short on highs at the resistance level, with attention paid to factors such as enterprise slaughter rhythm and secondary fattening [37]. - **Eggs**: Short - term demand may increase, but supply is continuously accumulating. In the long term, supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to observe the 06 contract and short on highs for the 08 and 09 contracts [39]. - **Corn**: In the short term, there is support for prices due to reduced grassroots grain sources and positive market sentiment. In the long term, supply - demand tightens, but there are also factors such as policy release and substitute products. It is recommended to go long on lows within the range and pay attention to 7 - 9 positive spread opportunities [40]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate at a low level due to sufficient supply. In the long term, it may strengthen due to increased costs and weather disturbances. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing highs in the short term and go long on pullbacks after mid - June [42]. - **Oils and Fats**: In the short term, they are expected to oscillate within a range due to complex supply - demand factors. In the long term, they may decline in June and rebound in the third quarter. It is recommended to short on highs cautiously and pay attention to spread - widening strategies [47].

Core Insights - The sentiment towards U.S. assets is cautious, with "long gold" being the most crowded trade for the second consecutive month, as 58% of investors believe it is the current most crowded trade [1][3] - Investors' attitudes towards the U.S. dollar have significantly changed, with 57% considering it overvalued, marking the lowest allocation to the dollar since May 2006 [1][7][12] - Despite a slight improvement in global economic outlook, 81% of investors still expect the economy to enter "stagflation" [2][11] Investor Sentiment - 62% of investors view tariffs as the biggest tail risk for a global recession, while 43% believe tariffs could lead to systemic credit events [2][18] - Cash levels among investors have decreased from 4.8% to 4.5%, slightly below the long-term average of 4.7% since 1999 [14] - 61% of investors now expect a "soft landing" for the global economy, a significant increase from 37% in April [14] Asset Allocation Changes - There is a notable shift in asset allocation, with a net 38% of investors underweighting U.S. stocks, the lowest level since May 2023 [23] - European stocks have seen a 13 percentage point increase in allocation to a net 35% overweight, reversing the decline from April [23] - Technology stocks have experienced a significant 17 percentage point increase in allocation, the largest monthly gain since March 2013 [23] - Energy stocks are now at a net 35% underweight, marking a historical low [23] Economic Outlook - A net 59% of investors expect the economy to weaken, showing the largest monthly improvement since October 2024, despite a 66 percentage point drop from the peak in December 2024 [16] - 46% of investors anticipate two interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, while 25% expect three cuts [19]