Group 1 - The fundamental attributes of gold are scarcity and safe-haven appeal, with the former being a physical property and the latter an emotional one. Despite annual mining, the incremental supply is only 1% of the total stock, making it difficult to influence international gold prices. The safe-haven attribute is the key factor determining gold price fluctuations [1] - Recent geopolitical events, such as the end of conflicts between Israel and Iran, and Thailand and Cambodia, have reduced the number of events that can trigger market risk aversion. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is also approaching a resolution, with expectations of a peace agreement becoming mainstream in the market [1] - The latest gold price is around $3,338, which is only $161 away from its historical high of $3,499. However, this resilience is primarily attributed to the decline of the US dollar index rather than its safe-haven property [1][2] Group 2 - Since Trump's presidency, aggressive domestic and foreign policies have caused anxiety and disappointment among Wall Street and global financial institutions, leading to capital flight from the US and a significant drop in the dollar index. The dollar index peaked at 110.18 in January but has since fallen to a low of 96.37, remaining below the 100 mark [2] - Technically, gold has been in a converging triangle consolidation pattern since April 22, with the right side of the triangle becoming increasingly narrow, indicating a potential breakout. A peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine could increase the likelihood of a downward breakout for gold. However, recent rebound waves suggest that bulls are still making efforts, and if the dollar index remains weak, gold may still have the potential for an upward breakout [5]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is solidifying, leading to a bullish outlook for gold prices, which are showing signs of recovery after a recent decline [1][3]. Price Movement - On August 13, gold opened at $3348.35 per ounce, dipped to a low of $3342.68, and then rose to a high of $3370.42 before closing at $3355.78, marking a daily increase of $7.43 or 0.22% [3]. - The price is expected to test resistance around $3440, with support levels at the 60-day and 100-day moving averages [1][9]. Market Influences - The recent decline in the U.S. dollar index, influenced by calls for a significant rate cut from the U.S. Treasury Secretary, has contributed to the upward movement in gold prices [3][5]. - The market is anticipating initial jobless claims and PPI data, which could impact gold prices, but the overall sentiment remains bullish due to the prevailing rate cut expectations [5][9]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices have rebounded from the mid-line support after a series of corrections, indicating a potential upward trend despite some weakening in bullish momentum [7]. - The Bollinger Bands are tightening, suggesting that while there may be fluctuations, the overall direction is likely to remain upward [7]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3355 and $3347, while resistance levels are at $3370 and $3385 [9]. - For silver, support is noted at $38.35 and $38.10, with resistance at $38.90 and $39.20 [9].

Group 1 - The Brazilian real appreciated significantly against the US dollar, rising by 1.06% to close at 5.3864 reais per dollar, the highest level since June 14, 2024 [1] - The Brazilian stock index Ibovespa increased by 1.69%, closing at 137,913.68 points [1] - Analysts attribute the currency's rise to lower-than-expected US inflation data, which decreased the dollar's attractiveness to investors, leading to capital flowing into riskier currencies like the real [1] Group 2 - Investors are closely monitoring the Brazilian government's response to the US tariff impact, particularly after President Trump announced a 50% tariff on certain Brazilian exports [1] - Brazilian Finance Minister Haddad indicated that the government's response plan may include credit support, tax deferral, government procurement of export products, and structural reforms to promote exports [1] - A scheduled video meeting between Haddad and US Treasury Secretary Scott Basset was canceled by the US side, with limited market reaction, as the negotiations are seen as primarily political and unlikely to yield breakthroughs in the short term [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent trend of early profit-taking in USD wealth management products, highlighting that several institutions have triggered early termination due to achieving target yields [2][3]. Group 1: Early Profit-Taking Trends - Since July, multiple USD wealth management products have experienced early profit-taking, with 招银理财 reporting four products that achieved yields of 4.28%, 4.46%, 5.03%, and 4.58% [3]. - The recent product that triggered early termination was the "US Treasury QDII (USD) Target Profit Closed No. 9," which was originally set for a 739-day duration but ended after only 194 days due to reaching the target yield [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Product Design - The early profit-taking phenomenon is attributed to the combination of product design and changing market conditions, with many recent products being "target profit" types that include clauses to lock in gains for investors [3]. - The average annualized yield for USD wealth management products has been declining, with a reported average of 3.96% at the end of June, down nearly 70 basis points from the previous year [4]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Actual Returns - Despite the declining yields, there remains strong market enthusiasm for new USD wealth management products, with the total scale surpassing 500 billion yuan, an increase of over 200 billion yuan since the end of last year [4]. - Investors are cautioned that actual returns may not be as high as expected due to currency exchange rate fluctuations, which can significantly impact the final returns when converting back to local currency [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the overall trend for USD wealth management products will continue to decline in yield due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the depreciation of the USD index [6].

Group 1 - Spot gold has increased by 1.00% during the day, currently priced at 3336.31 USD per ounce [1] - The US Dollar Index (DXY) has seen a short-term decline of nearly 15 points, currently at 96.71 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - Copper prices are prone to rise and difficult to fall. The main reasons are the sharp decline of the US dollar index and the high spread structure of the LME market. The report also mentions that the narrowing of the spread between the spot and futures prices in the domestic market, the opening of the export window, and the easing of the tight supply situation of copper mines in the second half of the year also affect the copper price [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper price broke through and rose. The main reasons were the decline of the US dollar index and the high spread structure of the LME market. The speculation that the Fed would cut interest rates earlier led to a sharp decline in the US dollar index. The LME0 - 3 back structure and the next - day spread expanded, and the LME inventory continued to decline, increasing the risk of a short squeeze in the market. The spread between the spot and futures prices in the domestic market also widened, and the export window opened. The long - term negotiation result of the mine end showed that the supply shortage of copper mines in the second half of the year was less severe than expected, which once narrowed the increase of copper prices, but the current tight spot market still supported the copper price [11]. 3.2 Industry News - The copper concentrate mixing project of Zhongtong (Tangshan) Mineral Products Co., Ltd. was successfully put into operation on June 25, marking the full smoothness of the bonded mixing business process [12]. - The negotiation result of TC/RC between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters in 2025 was set at 0.0 US dollars per dry ton and 0.0 cents per pound [12]. - In July 2025, the total production plan of the three major white goods (air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines) was 29.6 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%. Affected by the weakening demand for home appliances, the operating rate of enameled wire enterprises has continued to decline [12][13].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Views - The report indicates that the basic metals, particularly copper and aluminum, are experiencing price fluctuations influenced by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions. Copper prices have shown an upward trend, while aluminum prices have seen mixed movements due to supply and demand dynamics [1][19][23] - Precious metals, specifically gold and silver, have faced downward pressure due to reduced safe-haven demand and hawkish monetary policy expectations. The report maintains a positive outlook on gold in the medium term amid a weakening dollar [2][23] - The small metals sector, particularly tin, has shown signs of recovery, supported by geopolitical factors and a declining dollar index, which has bolstered the performance of non-ferrous metals [3][49] Summary by Sections Basic Metals & Precious Metals - Copper: Prices have risen, with the Shanghai copper closing at 79,920 CNY/ton. The market is influenced by geopolitical stability and reduced inventory levels, although domestic demand remains weak [1][11] - Aluminum: Prices have fluctuated, with the Shanghai aluminum closing at 20,580 CNY/ton. Supply pressures are increasing due to production resumption, while demand from the real estate sector is subdued [1][19] - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices have declined, with gold averaging 774.48 CNY/gram and silver at 8,713 CNY/kg. The decline is attributed to reduced geopolitical tensions and a shift in market focus towards industrial metals [2][23] Small Metals - Tin: Prices have rebounded, with London tin closing at 33,140 USD/ton, up 450 USD/ton from the previous week. The recovery is supported by easing geopolitical tensions and a declining dollar index [3][49] - Rare Earths: Prices are on the rise, with light rare earth oxide prices increasing by 0.1% to 444,100 CNY/ton. The sector is expected to see significant improvement in the third quarter [3][49] Other Metals - Lead: Prices have shown a slight increase, supported by marginal improvements in supply and demand dynamics [25] - Zinc: Prices have rebounded slightly, with the market showing signs of recovery amid geopolitical stability [31] - Cobalt: Prices have increased due to supply constraints and policy delays in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with electrolytic cobalt prices ranging from 244,000 to 265,000 CNY/ton [41][42]

Group 1: US Economic Data and Market Reaction - The US GDP for Q1 2025 was revised down to a contraction of 0.5%, indicating a weaker economic outlook than previously estimated [1] - The unexpected widening of the US trade deficit in May, along with a significant drop in exports, reinforces concerns about the sluggish state of the economy [1] - The weak economic data has solidified market expectations for at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, leading to a rise in US tech stocks and a collective increase in the three major US stock indices [1] Group 2: European Market Performance - European stock indices showed mixed results, with military stocks leading gains following NATO leaders' agreement to significantly increase defense spending [2] - The UK stock market rose by 0.19%, while the French market saw a slight decline of 0.01%, and the German market increased by 0.64% [2] Group 3: Currency Market Movements - The US dollar index fell to a three-year low, prompting a significant rise in the euro and pound against the dollar, with the euro reaching 1.1721, the highest since September 2021 [3] - The pound appreciated by 0.63%, marking its highest level against the dollar since October 2021, driven by a broader trend of diversification by global central banks and investors [3] Group 4: Commodity Price Changes - International oil prices increased due to a decline in US commercial crude oil inventories, suggesting rising energy demand, alongside support from a weaker dollar [4] - As of the close, light crude oil futures were priced at $65.24 per barrel, up 0.49%, while Brent crude futures settled at $67.73 per barrel, up 0.07% [4] - Gold prices also saw a slight increase, closing at $3348.0 per ounce, up 0.15%, influenced by weak economic data and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the potential nomination of a new Federal Reserve chairman by Trump may accelerate expectations for interest rate cuts by the Fed, leading to a decline in the US dollar index [10][11] - The US dollar index fell below the 97 mark, reaching a low of 96.9923, marking a decline of over 10% year-to-date [4][10] - Non-US currencies strengthened against the dollar, with the Japanese yen rising nearly 1%, and both the British pound and euro increasing by over 0.5% [5][10] Group 2 - Market speculation suggests that the Fed may cut rates sooner and more significantly than previously anticipated, influenced by Trump's pressure on current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell [10][11] - Traders have increased bets on Fed rate cuts, now expecting a reduction of 66 basis points by year-end, up from 51 basis points the previous week [10] - Potential candidates for the Fed chair position include Kevin Walsh, Kevin Hassett, Scott Bessenet, David Malpass, and Christopher Waller, with Trump indicating he has several candidates in mind [10][11] Group 3 - The early announcement of a new Fed chair could influence investor expectations regarding interest rate paths, potentially leading to a more dovish outlook [11] - Trump's dissatisfaction with the Fed's current interest rate policy has been vocal, advocating for lower borrowing costs [11][12] - The strategy of announcing a successor early carries risks for both Trump and the prospective chair, as it may attract criticism and scrutiny [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential acceleration of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by speculation surrounding President Trump's possible nomination of a new Fed chair, which has led traders to increase bets on earlier and larger rate cuts [1][9]. Group 1: Dollar Index Movement - The dollar index fell below the 97 mark, reaching a low of 96.9923, marking the lowest level since February 2022, with a year-to-date decline exceeding 10% [2][3]. - Non-US currencies strengthened, with the Japanese yen rising nearly 1% against the dollar, and both the British pound and euro increasing by over 0.5% [5]. Group 2: Market Speculation and Fed Chair Nomination - The decline in the dollar index is attributed to market speculation that the U.S. may cut interest rates sooner and more significantly than previously expected, influenced by Trump's intensified pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell [9]. - Traders have increased their bets on Fed rate cuts, now anticipating a reduction of 66 basis points by the end of the year, up from 51 basis points the previous weekend [9]. Group 3: Potential Candidates for Fed Chair - Trump is reportedly considering candidates such as former Fed governor Kevin Walsh and National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett, with others including former World Bank president David Malpass and Fed governor Christopher Waller [10]. - The new Fed chair is not expected to take office until May 2026, making an announcement this summer or fall significantly earlier than the traditional transition period [10]. Group 4: Implications of Early Announcement - An early announcement of a new Fed chair could influence investor expectations regarding potential interest rate paths, akin to a backseat driver attempting to steer monetary policy before Powell's term ends [10]. - Trump's dissatisfaction with the Fed's current stance on interest rates has been vocal, advocating for cuts to lower government borrowing costs [10]. Group 5: Risks and Challenges - Early nomination could pose risks for both the president and the prospective chair, as the latter may face criticism for opposing the current Fed stance or anger Trump by maintaining it [11]. - Economic experts suggest that the sooner Trump announces a successor, the more scrutiny the candidate will face, potentially jeopardizing their chances of taking over from Powell [11].