Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded the revenue forecasts for Samsonite (01910) for 2025 and 2026 by 3% to $3.42 billion and $3.65 billion respectively, due to weaker sales momentum and unfavorable operating leverage [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Samsonite reported Q2 2025 net sales of $865 million, a year-on-year decline of 5.8% when adjusted for fixed exchange rates [2] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $141 million, with an EBITDA margin of 16.3%, down from 19.0% in the same period last year [2] - Adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was $71.4 million, compared to $86.9 million in the previous year [2] Group 2: Management Insights - Management noted that sales grew significantly during the post-pandemic recovery from 2021 to 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 37%, outpacing the industry average growth rate of 4.5% [3] - For 2024 to 2025, sales performance is expected to normalize, with long-term global passenger travel growth projected at around 4% from 2024 to 2029 [3] - Sales outlook for Q3 2025 is expected to be similar to Q2 2025, with a slight low single-digit decline in sales [3] Group 3: Profitability Outlook - CICC expects the gross margin for 2025 to be between 59% and 59.5%, impacted by U.S. tariffs on imports from major production countries [4] - The company plans to mitigate margin pressure through early inventory procurement in H1 2025 and price increases in H2 2025 [4] - The decline in high-margin sales from Asia further pressures the gross margin, although this is partially offset by an increase in direct sales proportion [4]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities maintains the judgment that the Federal Reserve will implement its first interest rate cut in September and will lower rates twice within the year [1] Inflation and Tariffs - July inflation data in the U.S. indicates that the transmission of tariffs to inflation is relatively mild [1] - Research by Cavallo et al. shows that after tariffs are announced, the maximum increase in commodity prices occurs within 10-15 weeks (3-4 months) [1] - Due to weak perceived demand, companies only pass on 50-60% of the tariff pressure to consumers, preventing a larger increase in inflation [1] Future Outlook - With an expected increase in tariffs in August, core inflation may continue to rise moderately [1] - Weak corporate demand and a weakening labor market will constrain the extent of inflation increases [1] - The slowdown in demand and accelerated deportation of illegal immigrants suggest that the labor market will continue to face pressure in the third quarter [1]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year, citing weak labor market data as a key factor [3][5] - Bowman previously supported maintaining interest rates until June but voted against the decision in July, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [3][5] - She urges other decision-makers to initiate rate cuts at the September Federal Reserve meeting to prevent further deterioration in the labor market [5][7] Group 2 - The U.S. labor market shows signs of cooling, with non-farm employment increasing by only 73,000 in July, below expectations, and the unemployment rate rising from 4.1% to 4.2% [7][9] - Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by 0.3% in July, compared to a 0.2% increase in June, indicating a potential uptick in inflation due to higher tariffs [9][10] - Higher tariffs are beginning to affect consumer prices, particularly in household goods and entertainment, creating a dilemma for Federal Reserve officials who are trying to assess the impact on sustained inflation while monitoring labor market trends [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a decline in revenue for the third quarter due to U.S. tariffs, early inventory pull-ins by customers, and the continued appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar [1][3]. Group 1: Revenue Forecast - The company estimates third-quarter revenue to be between NT$237 billion and NT$247 billion (approximately RMB 57 billion to RMB 59.4 billion), representing a quarter-over-quarter decline of 6-10% and a year-over-year decline of 11-15% [1][3]. - Gross margin is projected to be between 34-37%, and operating margin is expected to be between 15-18% [1]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The impact of U.S. tariffs has been established, and the company will closely monitor its effects on the industry and economy [3]. - The consumer electronics sector benefited from China's subsidies and early inventory pull-ins due to U.S. tariffs in the first half of the year, but these effects are diminishing, leading to a more conservative ordering attitude from customers [3]. Group 3: Product Line Performance - Revenue from the small and medium-sized driver ICs is expected to decline less significantly, while the large-size DDIC is anticipated to see the largest reduction due to the tapering off of the effects from China's subsidies and tariffs [3][4]. - The performance of televisions is expected to remain stable, while laptops may see slight growth, and both tablets and monitors are projected to decline [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is cautious about the fourth quarter, focusing on the impact of U.S. tariffs, the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar, and potential inventory demands driven by promotions in China [4]. - The company anticipates an increase in shipments of OLED TDDI, with expectations of over 10 million units shipped this year due to successful mass production of new models [4].

Core Viewpoint - South Korean officials express concerns about the impact of a 15% tariff on exporters' profitability, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises, despite successfully negotiating a tariff agreement with the United States [1] Group 1: Tariff Agreement - South Korea has avoided the worst-case scenario by reaching a tariff agreement with the United States [1] - The agreement includes a significant investment plan of $350 billion, with $200 billion allocated to strategic industries such as semiconductors [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - Concerns remain regarding how the unprecedented 15% tariff will affect the profitability of companies exporting to the U.S. [1] - The South Korean government plans to continue discussions with the U.S. to ensure that the investment plans benefit the national economy and its enterprises [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian ETF listed in the US experienced a post-market decline of 0.26% [1] Group 1: Economic Relations - Brazilian Finance Minister Haddad expressed that US President Trump is interested in dialogue with the Brazilian President, which he considers "great" [1] - Haddad stated he is always available for discussions with US Treasury Secretary Yellen [1] Group 2: Trade Concerns - Haddad advised not to believe in the macroeconomic impacts of US tariffs, but rather to be more concerned about the microeconomic effects caused by these tariffs [1]

Core Insights - The average global tariff rate imposed by the U.S. is estimated to be around 18% according to BlueBay Asset Management [1] - The projected annual revenue from U.S. tariffs is approximately $450 billion, with an expected increase to $770 billion in 2024, representing 1.25% of GDP [1] - This tariff revenue is anticipated to help reduce the U.S. fiscal deficit to slightly below 7% of GDP in the coming year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Malaysia's Trade Minister announced that pharmaceutical and semiconductor products will be exempt from U.S. tariffs, indicating a strategic advantage for these sectors in the Malaysian economy [1] Group 1: Industry Impact - The exemption from U.S. tariffs is expected to bolster the pharmaceutical and semiconductor industries in Malaysia, enhancing their competitiveness in the global market [1] - This decision may lead to increased foreign investment in these sectors, as companies seek to capitalize on the favorable trade conditions [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The move is likely to support Malaysia's economic growth by maintaining the stability of key export sectors, which are crucial for the country's trade balance [1] - It reflects Malaysia's ongoing efforts to strengthen its trade relationships and position itself as a key player in the global supply chain for pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [1]

日本制铁高管：尽管美国关税对美国钢铁业的影响尚未显现，但预计将是积极的。 ...

澳大利亚部长确认美国关税将维持在10%。 ...