Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices faced downward pressure, dropping below the $3350 mark and reaching $3340, with New York futures also falling below $3400 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.30% on the day [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin made a clear call for the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate-cutting cycle, suggesting that the benchmark interest rate should be at least 1.5 percentage points lower than its current level, which led to a spike in gold prices earlier in the day [3] - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 17 have increased significantly, with traders now betting on a 99% chance of a 25 basis point cut, up from 91.4% the previous day [3] Group 2 - Investors are awaiting the release of U.S. PPI and initial jobless claims data, which could influence the Federal Reserve's policy direction; economists expect July's PPI and core PPI to rise by 2.5% and 2.9% year-on-year, respectively [4] - If industrial producer prices unexpectedly slow down, it could increase the likelihood of a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve, potentially weakening the dollar and driving gold prices higher [4] Group 3 - Technical analysis suggests that gold prices are currently focused on short-term rebounds, with key support levels identified between $3355 and $3352; if these levels do not hold, further declines could test the previous low of $3342 and the $3330 area [5] - The upper resistance level remains at $3375-$3380; if this resistance is breached, the next significant resistance level to watch will be around $3400 [6]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times this year, each by 25 basis points, and two additional cuts in 2026, lowering the terminal rate to between 3% and 3.25% [1] - The consumer price index (CPI) data for July showed a slight increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.2%, aligning with economists' expectations, while gasoline prices fell by 2.2% [2][3] - Following the release of weak non-farm payroll data, Goldman Sachs indicated that the adjustment in employment growth data was the most significant in 57 years, suggesting a potential reduction in monthly job growth expectations by 45,000 to 80,000 [3] Group 2 - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September have risen to 93%, with a 7% chance for a 50 basis point cut [4] - Traders anticipate a total rate cut of approximately 65 basis points this year, an increase from previous predictions of around 60 basis points [5] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has advocated for a 50 basis point cut, citing recent weak employment data as a reason for a more significant reduction [6][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows inflation remains manageable, which supports market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][3][4] - The July CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, while the core CPI rose by 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, marking the largest month-on-month increase in six months [1][3] - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's September monetary policy shifted significantly, with a 93.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, while the likelihood of maintaining rates was only 6.6% [3] Group 2 - The July CPI data suggests that inflation is still within a controllable range, reinforcing market bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [4] - Investors are advised to monitor statements from Federal Reserve officials and subsequent economic data to assess whether the rate cut magnitude and pace align with current market expectations [4] - The high expectations for a rate cut have already influenced the pricing in the dollar, stock market, and fixed income markets, potentially leading to a weaker dollar and a continued upward trend in risk assets [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced an 8-day consecutive rise, reaching 3674 points, raising questions about potential opportunities for stocks that have not yet increased in value [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The recent U.S. CPI data has increased the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September, which could provide further upward momentum for the A-share market [1] - The current market trend is characterized by a "slow bull" pattern, with daily rotations among different sectors, preventing a uniform bullish sentiment [1] - As long as short sellers do not dominate the market, the overall market remains secure, indicating that many sectors and individual stocks still have opportunities for catch-up growth [1] Group 2: Short-term Strategy - Given the rapid increase in the index and the peak sentiment among numerous stocks, a consolidation phase is expected after breaking through 3674 points to digest floating capital [1] - The company suggests maintaining a bullish outlook but advises controlling the pace of investments in the short term to secure profits, with plans to resume aggressive strategies once the market stabilizes [1]

Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. July CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, and the core CPI rose by 0.32%, both meeting expectations[1] - Year-on-year, the CPI was expected to be 2.8% but came in at 2.7%, while the core CPI was expected at 3.0% and actual was 3.06%, with discrepancies attributed to seasonal adjustments and rounding issues[1] Inflation Structure - The rebound in used car prices, tariff impacts on furniture and auto parts, and fluctuations in airfare and hotel prices contributed to the inflation increase[1] - Core goods CPI month-on-month slightly increased from 0.20% to 0.21%, while transportation goods improved from -0.38% to 0.22%[1] - Housing services rose from 0.18% to 0.23%, with owner’s equivalent rent (OER) and rent price rent (RPR) at 0.28% and 0.26% respectively, returning to pre-pandemic levels[1] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, the market narrative shifted to "moderate inflation → increased rate cut expectations → improved growth outlook," leading to a drop in 2-year Treasury yields to 3.72% and a rise in 10-year yields to 4.31%[1] - The dollar index fell below 98, while gold prices decreased, and U.S. stocks and silver prices increased[1] Rate Cut Expectations - Current market pricing suggests 2.4 rate cuts (61 basis points) for the year, but there is an anticipated adjustment of at least 11 basis points downward[1] - The optimistic scenario for rate cuts is two times (September and December), while the pessimistic scenario is one time (October)[1] Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential overreach in Trump’s policies, excessive rate cuts leading to inflation rebound, and prolonged high rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[1]

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the United States in July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, which aligns with the previous value and is slightly below the expected rate of 2.8% [1] - The month-on-month CPI, seasonally adjusted, increased by 0.2%, matching expectations and down from the previous month's increase of 0.3% [1]

原油方面：昨日晚间（8月11日），乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，与莫迪讨论了对俄罗斯石油的制裁问 题，我们同意计划于9月在联合国大会上举行会晤并制定互访计划。据相关媒体报道，15日俄美在阿拉 斯加会谈结束后，普京将会邀请特朗普来俄罗斯参加下一轮会谈。此消息表明，俄美之间的谈判仍有诸 多不确定因素，但前景依旧向好。供应端来看，OPEC+已经确定在9月继续维持54.8万桶增产力度，且9 月将提前完成220万桶的原定增产计划。需求端来看，欧美夏季出行高峰还在继续，季节性利好因素仍 在，延缓了油价下跌速度。叠加中美关税顺利延期，减少了利空压力，短期内油价可能出现短暂反弹。 8月12日市场速览 ：1、中美关税顺利延期90日。2、特朗普在社交媒体上高调宣布，黄金不会被征收关 税。3、特朗普团队将鲍曼、杰斐逊和洛根纳入美联储主席候选人之列，有望今年秋季宣布美联储主席 人选。 技术面：昨日日线收小阳线，有一定的见底效果。1小时来看，市场仍处在下跌趋势，价格盘整至60日 均线之上，但仍在120均线下方运行，关注未来价格能否反弹，今日多空分水岭在64.50美元一线。 美元指数：据白宫有关人员透露，美国总统特朗普正在考虑让美联储两位副主 ...

马来亚银行分析师表示，市场对美国CPI数据持谨慎态度。除非有明显迹象显示关税带来的物价压力显 著加大，否则此次通胀报告不太可能大幅改变市场对美联储9月降息或进一步宽松的预期。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

日内将可关注美国7月NFIB小型企业信心指数、美国7月CPI年率及月率等各项数据，市场整体预期偏向利空金价的概率较大，故此日内来看仍可高空看回 落为主，但如今日反弹触及3370美元或上方，就算遇阻回落，只要不收线在3340美元下方，后市都将再度转为看涨反弹为主。 反之如数据弱于预期，则将会提升降息预期，推动金价持稳反弹，那么本周后市将继续回归到低多看涨的策略。 张尧浠：黄金税谣言澄清金价走低、日内再迎美CPI回落出尽 上交易日周一(8月11日)：国际黄金大幅回落收跌，因美国总统特朗普表示不会对进口金条征收关税，中美再次暂停实施24%关税90天，欧洲领导人及泽连 斯基将与特朗普通话等，减弱了黄金避险需求； 一举收复上周涨幅，一度跌至60日等均线下方，空头力量加强，有望再度回踩100日均线支撑目标，但日内短周期有止跌反弹需求，关注反弹动力，如今 日不能反弹收线在中轨或5日均线上方，则后市仍将继续看回落触及100日均线支撑后再看反弹。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3398.34美元/盎司，直接先行走强录得日内高点3404.51美元，之后遇阻回落，持续走低，并震荡偏弱，延续至美盘尾录日内 低点3341.22美元，最终有 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a significant decline due to reduced geopolitical tensions, impacting its safe-haven demand, with market focus shifting to upcoming U.S. economic indicators and Federal Reserve officials' speeches [1][2]. Economic Indicators - The market anticipates a 0.2% month-over-month increase in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a 2.8% year-over-year increase, with core CPI expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year [2]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts a 0.33% month-over-month increase in core CPI for July, aligning with market expectations, while overall CPI is projected to rise by 0.27% [2]. - Bank of America predicts a 0.24% month-over-month increase in overall CPI and a 0.31% increase in core CPI for July, which could elevate the core CPI year-over-year growth from 2.9% to 3.1% [2]. Market Impact - If CPI data exceeds expectations, the U.S. dollar may strengthen further, putting additional downward pressure on gold prices; conversely, weaker data or renewed geopolitical risks could enhance gold's appeal as a safe haven [2]. Technical Analysis - A closing price below $3,300 for gold could shift the outlook to bearish, while a breakout above the $3,400 resistance level may pave the way for new historical highs [3]. - Current support levels for gold are around $3,365, followed by $3,350 and $3,335, with $3,300 being a critical short-term level [3].