Group 1 - The recent weak employment report has raised concerns about the U.S. labor market, leading to speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [1][2] - The labor market's deterioration may suppress consumer spending, impacting overall economic growth, which increases the urgency for the Federal Reserve to adjust its monetary policy [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have surged, with probabilities rising from below 40% to nearly 90%, reflecting a shift in sentiment regarding the economic outlook [4] Group 2 - Analysts are divided on the potential magnitude of the rate cut, with some suggesting a cautious 25 basis points reduction, while others advocate for a more aggressive 50 basis points cut to boost economic confidence [4] - The release of the non-farm payroll data has caused volatility in global financial markets, with U.S. stock indices declining and U.S. Treasury yields falling significantly [5] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments will not only impact the U.S. economy but also influence global financial markets and the monetary policies of other central banks [5]

Report Title - "Bottom Range, Oscillating Recovery - Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated July 13, 2025 [2][3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Market expects the Fed to adjust monetary policy in autumn, with a high probability of rate cuts. China's manufacturing PMI has been rising for two consecutive months, and consumer goods manufacturing is growing steadily. Although PPI decline has widened, prices in some industries are showing signs of stabilization and recovery. In the nickel market, refined nickel is in a supply - surplus situation, the shortage of nickel ore supply has eased, sulfuric acid nickel prices are weak, and downstream demand has not improved significantly. Stainless steel is in a weak oscillation, and the improvement of medium - and long - term demand needs further data verification. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 116,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless steel main contract is 12,300 - 13,000 yuan/ton [36] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Focuses on the price trends of domestic and foreign main nickel futures contracts, presenting the historical closing prices of nickel futures main contracts from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with data sourced from WIND and Guoxin Futures [7][8][9] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream - China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - Displays the monthly import volume of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines into China, with data from WIND, Mysteel, and Guoxin Futures [12][13][14] 2.2 Mid - stream - Electrolytic Nickel Price - Shows the price trends of domestic and imported 1 electrolytic nickel (Ni99.90) from 2020 - 2025, with the price range from 0 to 300,000 yuan/ton [15][16] 2.3 Mid - stream - Sulfuric Acid Nickel Price - Presents the average price trends of sulfuric acid nickel in China from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the price range from 0 to 70,000 yuan/ton [17][18] 2.4 Mid - stream - Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - Displays the monthly import volume of ferronickel into China and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [19][20] 2.5 Downstream - Stainless Steel Price, Futures Position, and Wuxi Stainless Steel Inventory - **Stainless Steel Price**: Shows the closing price trends of stainless steel futures (continuous) from 2020 - 2025, with the price range from 0 to 25,000 yuan/ton [21][22] - **Stainless Steel Futures Position**: Displays the position volume trends of stainless steel futures from 2020 - 2025, with the position volume range from 0 to 400,000 hands [23][24] - **Wuxi Stainless Steel Inventory**: Presents the inventory trends of Wuxi stainless steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless steel from 2020 - 2025, with the inventory range from 0 to 800,000 tons [25][26] 2.6 Downstream - Production of Power and Energy Storage Batteries - Shows the monthly production volume of power and energy storage batteries (ternary materials) and total production volume in China from 2020 - 2025, with the production volume range from 0 to 140,000 MWh [28][29] 2.7 Downstream - Production of New Energy Vehicles - Displays the monthly production volume of new energy vehicles in China from 2020 - 2025, with the production volume range from 0 to 140,000 vehicles [30][31] 3. Future Outlook - Based on CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 25.3%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is only 7.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 69.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 22.8%. China's manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the consumer goods manufacturing PMI was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The decline of PPI in June widened by 0.3 percentage points, but prices of some industries are showing signs of stabilization and recovery. The Shanghai nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of 116,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and the stainless steel main contract in the range of 12,300 - 13,000 yuan/ton [36]

Core Insights - The non-farm payroll (NFP) data release schedule for 2025 is crucial for investors, as it significantly impacts the gold market, especially amid current Federal Reserve monetary policy adjustments [1] - Understanding the economic logic and transmission mechanisms behind the NFP report is key to enhancing investment success rates [1] Group 1: NFP Data Release Schedule - The NFP data will be released on specific dates in 2025, with the first release on January 10 at 21:30 for December data [2] - Subsequent releases will occur on February 7, March 7, April 4, May 2, June 6, July 3, August 1, September 5, October 3, November 7, and December 5, with the July release moved to Thursday due to the Independence Day holiday [2] Group 2: Trading Strategies - Investors should focus on three key time points around the NFP release: 30 minutes before the release, 15 minutes after the release, and 1 hour after the release to gauge market reactions [1] - For risk-averse investors, it is advisable to close positions before the data release and wait for clearer trends, while experienced traders can leverage short-term volatility through buying or selling gold products [1] - The platform, Lingfeng Precious Metals, offers real-time information and trading services to help investors navigate market fluctuations following the NFP data release [2]

Market Overview - The US stock market showed positive sentiment on June 24, with all three major indices closing higher. The Dow Jones increased by 1.19%, the Nasdaq rose by 1.43%, and the S&P 500 gained 1.11% [4] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index surged by 3.31%, indicating a strong performance for Chinese concept stocks [2][6] Chinese Concept Stocks - Notable gains were observed in several Chinese concept stocks, with Xiaoma Zhixing rising over 16%, Hesai Technology increasing by over 14%, New Oriental up by over 13%, and Cangu gaining over 8% [6][8] Major Technology Stocks - Major US technology stocks had mixed results, with the Nasdaq US Tech Giants Index rising by over 1%. Nvidia and Amazon both increased by over 2%, while Meta and Google rose by over 1%. Microsoft saw a slight increase, while Apple and Tesla experienced declines [8][9] Commodity Prices - International oil prices experienced a significant drop, with both WTI and Brent crude oil contracts falling by over 5%. Gold futures prices decreased by 1.7%, and spot gold prices fell by 1.33% [11][12] Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed is in a "wait-and-see" mode regarding future monetary policy adjustments, pending further economic data. He emphasized the need to observe the impact of tariffs on inflation before making any decisions [14][15] - Powell noted that the US GDP slightly declined in the first quarter, and consumer spending growth has slowed, reflecting increased uncertainty in the economic outlook [15]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's current monetary policy stance is considered to be in a "good place," with risks between the U.S. labor market and inflation targets becoming more balanced [1] - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive time since the rate cut cycle began last September [3] - Federal Reserve officials generally anticipate a potential slowdown in U.S. economic growth, with rising inflation pressures and a slight increase in the unemployment rate [3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller suggested that rate cuts could begin as early as July, while Mary Daly expressed a more cautious view, indicating that actions are more likely in the fall [5] - Daly emphasized that monetary policy adjustments should be based on actual economic data rather than preset paths, highlighting the challenges of communication within the Federal Reserve [5] - The Federal Reserve's future policy adjustments will heavily depend on key indicators such as inflation, employment, and economic growth, as the U.S. economy faces multiple challenges [7]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq down 0.5% and the S&P 500 down 0.22% [1] - Mid to long-term U.S. Treasury yields declined, with the 10-year yield down 1.4 basis points to 4.38% and the 2-year yield down 3.8 basis points to 3.92% [2] - The Federal Reserve may consider easing monetary policy as early as July, according to Fed Governor Waller [2] - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East are raising concerns about broader conflicts, particularly affecting global oil supply [3] Company Performance - Google shares fell over 3.6% due to the impact of an EU antitrust investigation [3] - Other major tech stocks also experienced declines: Meta down 1.9%, Amazon down 1.3%, and Microsoft down 0.6%, while Apple rose 2.2% [3] - The semiconductor sector faced pressure, with Nvidia down 1.1% and TSMC down nearly 2% due to negative news regarding chip export exemptions [4] - Kroger's stock increased by 9.8% after reporting year-over-year growth in Q1 and raising its revenue guidance for FY2025 [5] Economic Indicators - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.9%, with JD.com down 3.3% and Baidu, Tencent, and Pinduoduo each down over 1% [6] - The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for the U.S. declined by 0.1% to 99.0 in May, marking a cumulative drop of 2.7% over the past six months [6] - The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index for June reported -4.0, indicating continued contraction, with employment metrics at their lowest since May 2020 [6] Commodity Prices - International oil prices weakened, with WTI crude down 0.28% to $74.93 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.23% to $77.01 per barrel [6] - Gold prices also faced downward pressure, with COMEX June futures down 0.64% to $3368.10 per ounce [7]

Group 1 - The survey conducted by Reuters among 105 economists reveals a strong consensus on the timing and frequency of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with many predicting at least two cuts within the year [3][5] - Economists express concerns over the current state of the U.S. economy, highlighting challenges such as fluctuating inflation pressures, a weakening labor market, and increased uncertainty in the global trade environment [3][4] - The anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to alleviate pressures on corporate financing and consumer credit, thereby stimulating economic activity and supporting recovery [3][5] Group 2 - Economists forecast a modest growth of 1.4% for the U.S. economy in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, indicating a cautious optimism despite various limiting factors [4] - The U.S. economy faces structural adjustments, with traditional manufacturing competitiveness declining and emerging industries not yet providing a robust growth engine [4] - The potential for government economic stimulus policies, along with strong technological innovation and a large domestic consumer market, may provide support for economic growth [4][5] Group 3 - The relationship between the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments and U.S. economic growth expectations is closely linked, with timely rate cuts expected to enhance market liquidity and boost investment and consumption [5] - Failure to adjust monetary policy in line with market expectations could lead to increased downward pressure on U.S. economic growth [5] - Changes in the Federal Reserve's policy will also have significant implications for global financial markets, affecting dollar liquidity, exchange rate fluctuations, and capital flows [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. job market has experienced a significant slowdown, with hiring rates dropping to the lowest level in two years, far below economists' expectations, leading to increased rate cut predictions [1][3] - In May, ADP reported an increase of only 37,000 jobs, which is the lowest since March 2023 and significantly below the expected 114,000 jobs, with the previous month's figure at 62,000 [1][3] - The data indicates a notable decline in employer demand for new employees, contrasting with the relatively stable job growth observed in previous months [3] Group 2 - Key industries such as business services, education, and healthcare are experiencing layoffs, while trade, transportation, and manufacturing are also reducing positions; only the leisure and hospitality sector and financial activities are seeing job growth, which is insufficient to offset declines in other sectors [3] - Wage growth has stagnated, with salary increases for job switchers at 7% and for retained employees at only 4.5% [4] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to show a slowdown in job growth compared to April, with the unemployment rate remaining stable; however, the ADP data raises concerns about potential policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve [6]

本周初黄金涨势受阻，进入震荡调整阶段。此前支撑金价上行的关键因素——特朗普拟于6月1日对欧盟加征 50%关税的威胁出现转机，市场对此前贸易不确定性的担忧显著缓解。具体而言，上周末特朗普宣布将关税实 施日期延后至7月9日，而周一欧盟首席贸易代表表态称将努力在截止日前达成协议。受此影响，市场风险偏好 明显回升，推动美股于周二大幅上涨，黄金的避险需求随之减弱。后续需持续关注贸易谈判进程，同时地缘政 治局势及美联储货币政策调整亦可能对金价产生影响。翁老师提醒日内重点关注美联储会议纪要披露的相关信 息。 文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一直如此，我相信每一位读者缺乏的不是鸡汤，而是实实在在的分析与强大 的理论，我是翁富豪老师，最后祝大家交易愉快。免责申明:以上纯属个人观点分享，不构成操作建议，投资有 风险，盈亏自负。 操作策略： 1.黄金建议反弹3335-3340区域做空，止损在3348，目标看3320-3290，破位持有 4小时级别图显示，目前黄金上涨动能较弱，在上探关键阻力位后遇阻回落，当前价格运行于布林带中轨与下轨 区间，布林带整体形态保持平稳，尚未出现明显开口迹象；小时图显示，黄金在回调后进入震荡整理阶段，布 林 ...

基本面： 周一（5月19日）亚盘时段，现货黄金跳空高开后继续震荡，盘中最高再次测试3250一线压力后徘徊，目前交投于3220美元附近。周五（5月16日）金价周五 一度大跌超过2%，致周线下跌近4%，受累于贸易协议带来的风险偏好上升，创下去年11月以来最糟糕的一周。贸易战的缓解使整个市场的风险偏好回升。 这种转变促使期货交易商获利了结，尤其是在黄金市场，并引发了长达一周的结清仓位潮。 上周早些时候，两大经济体暂停贸易战90天，同时双方将制定结束针锋相对的贸易战的细节。因此，华尔街三大股指实现周线上涨，这主要是由于在经历了 长期的不确定性之后，投资者的风险偏好不断增强。与此同时，美国近期通胀数据放缓，加上经济数据弱于预期，巩固了美联储今年将进一步降息的预期。 上周公布的4月份美国消费者通胀率的上升低于预期，消费者价格指数(CPI)4月份上涨了0.2%，使全年涨幅从2.4%降至2.3%。这份报告是个 "好消息"。"对大 多数消费者和企业来说，2025年的通胀应该是可控的。市场预计美联储今年将降息两次，从9月份开始。预计美联储今年将降息56个基点，低于4月份超过 100个基点的预期，当时对特朗普关税影响的担忧最为严重 ...