*三大股指分化，科技股低迷纳指跌0.5%； *中长期美债收益率回落，2年期美债逼近3.90%； *受欧盟反垄断调查判决影响，谷歌跌超3%。 美股周五收盘涨跌互现，市场权衡以伊冲突的持续发展和美联储官员的表态。截至收盘，道指涨35.16 点，涨幅0.08%，报42206.82点，纳指跌0.51%，报19447.41点，标普500指数跌0.22%，报5967.84点。本 周，标准普尔500指数下跌0.2%，纳斯达克指数上涨0.2%，道琼斯指数变化不大。 克罗格涨9.8%，该连锁超市报告第一季度业绩同比增长后，上调了2025财年营收指引。 纳斯达克金龙中国指数跌0.9%。 京东跌3.3%， 百度、腾讯、拼多多跌超1%。 经济数据方面，受消费者悲观情绪、制成品新订单疲软、失业救济申请人数增加和建筑许可申请人数下 降的影响，咨商会美国经济领先指标在5月份继续呈下降趋势，回落0.1个百分点至99.0。在截至2025年5 月的六个月内，累计下跌2.7%。 费城联储6月份制造业指数报-4.0，继续处于萎缩状态，其中就业指标达到了2020年5月以来的最低水 平。 美联储理事沃勒当天表示，由于关税不太可能显著增加通货膨胀，美联储 ...

Group 1 - The survey conducted by Reuters among 105 economists reveals a strong consensus on the timing and frequency of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with many predicting at least two cuts within the year [3][5] - Economists express concerns over the current state of the U.S. economy, highlighting challenges such as fluctuating inflation pressures, a weakening labor market, and increased uncertainty in the global trade environment [3][4] - The anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to alleviate pressures on corporate financing and consumer credit, thereby stimulating economic activity and supporting recovery [3][5] Group 2 - Economists forecast a modest growth of 1.4% for the U.S. economy in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, indicating a cautious optimism despite various limiting factors [4] - The U.S. economy faces structural adjustments, with traditional manufacturing competitiveness declining and emerging industries not yet providing a robust growth engine [4] - The potential for government economic stimulus policies, along with strong technological innovation and a large domestic consumer market, may provide support for economic growth [4][5] Group 3 - The relationship between the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments and U.S. economic growth expectations is closely linked, with timely rate cuts expected to enhance market liquidity and boost investment and consumption [5] - Failure to adjust monetary policy in line with market expectations could lead to increased downward pressure on U.S. economic growth [5] - Changes in the Federal Reserve's policy will also have significant implications for global financial markets, affecting dollar liquidity, exchange rate fluctuations, and capital flows [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. job market has experienced a significant slowdown, with hiring rates dropping to the lowest level in two years, far below economists' expectations, leading to increased rate cut predictions [1][3] - In May, ADP reported an increase of only 37,000 jobs, which is the lowest since March 2023 and significantly below the expected 114,000 jobs, with the previous month's figure at 62,000 [1][3] - The data indicates a notable decline in employer demand for new employees, contrasting with the relatively stable job growth observed in previous months [3] Group 2 - Key industries such as business services, education, and healthcare are experiencing layoffs, while trade, transportation, and manufacturing are also reducing positions; only the leisure and hospitality sector and financial activities are seeing job growth, which is insufficient to offset declines in other sectors [3] - Wage growth has stagnated, with salary increases for job switchers at 7% and for retained employees at only 4.5% [4] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to show a slowdown in job growth compared to April, with the unemployment rate remaining stable; however, the ADP data raises concerns about potential policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve [6]

本周初黄金涨势受阻，进入震荡调整阶段。此前支撑金价上行的关键因素——特朗普拟于6月1日对欧盟加征 50%关税的威胁出现转机，市场对此前贸易不确定性的担忧显著缓解。具体而言，上周末特朗普宣布将关税实 施日期延后至7月9日，而周一欧盟首席贸易代表表态称将努力在截止日前达成协议。受此影响，市场风险偏好 明显回升，推动美股于周二大幅上涨，黄金的避险需求随之减弱。后续需持续关注贸易谈判进程，同时地缘政 治局势及美联储货币政策调整亦可能对金价产生影响。翁老师提醒日内重点关注美联储会议纪要披露的相关信 息。 文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一直如此，我相信每一位读者缺乏的不是鸡汤，而是实实在在的分析与强大 的理论，我是翁富豪老师，最后祝大家交易愉快。免责申明:以上纯属个人观点分享，不构成操作建议，投资有 风险，盈亏自负。 操作策略： 1.黄金建议反弹3335-3340区域做空，止损在3348，目标看3320-3290，破位持有 4小时级别图显示，目前黄金上涨动能较弱，在上探关键阻力位后遇阻回落，当前价格运行于布林带中轨与下轨 区间，布林带整体形态保持平稳，尚未出现明显开口迹象；小时图显示，黄金在回调后进入震荡整理阶段，布 林 ...

基本面： 周一（5月19日）亚盘时段，现货黄金跳空高开后继续震荡，盘中最高再次测试3250一线压力后徘徊，目前交投于3220美元附近。周五（5月16日）金价周五 一度大跌超过2%，致周线下跌近4%，受累于贸易协议带来的风险偏好上升，创下去年11月以来最糟糕的一周。贸易战的缓解使整个市场的风险偏好回升。 这种转变促使期货交易商获利了结，尤其是在黄金市场，并引发了长达一周的结清仓位潮。 上周早些时候，两大经济体暂停贸易战90天，同时双方将制定结束针锋相对的贸易战的细节。因此，华尔街三大股指实现周线上涨，这主要是由于在经历了 长期的不确定性之后，投资者的风险偏好不断增强。与此同时，美国近期通胀数据放缓，加上经济数据弱于预期，巩固了美联储今年将进一步降息的预期。 上周公布的4月份美国消费者通胀率的上升低于预期，消费者价格指数(CPI)4月份上涨了0.2%，使全年涨幅从2.4%降至2.3%。这份报告是个 "好消息"。"对大 多数消费者和企业来说，2025年的通胀应该是可控的。市场预计美联储今年将降息两次，从9月份开始。预计美联储今年将降息56个基点，低于4月份超过 100个基点的预期，当时对特朗普关税影响的担忧最为严重 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The gold market experienced a gap down on Monday and continued to decline, showing alternating bearish and bullish patterns, ultimately closing the week with a bearish candle featuring a long lower shadow [1] - U.S. April CPI data showed a mild performance, leading to a decrease in inflation expectations and a stronger dollar, which pressured gold prices. The April PPI unexpectedly fell by 0.5%, while retail sales growth dropped significantly from 1.7% in March to 0.1%, indicating increased economic slowdown pressures [2] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the stalemate in Russia-Ukraine peace talks and uncertainties surrounding U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, have heightened demand for gold as a safe haven [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 11 basis points to 4.435%, increasing market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with a 75.4% probability for a September cut, providing some support for gold prices [2] - The recent easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China, with mutual tariff cancellations, has temporarily alleviated trade friction, impacting market sentiment [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged challenges facing the U.S. economy and the Fed, indicating potential volatility in future inflation. Although he did not elaborate on rate cut expectations, the recent CPI data has intensified pressure on the Fed to lower rates [5] - Wall Street's major banks have postponed their expectations for a Fed rate cut due to easing trade tensions, complicating the impact on gold prices [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently in a corrective phase, having encountered strong resistance at the 3500 level. The recent price action suggests that gold may have entered a fourth wave adjustment structure [9] - A breakdown below the 3202 support level confirmed the start of a C-wave decline, with a potential short-term rebound observed near the 3120 level. The focus will be on whether gold can stabilize above 3120 to initiate a rebound [11][12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the gold market is experiencing a complex situation influenced by weak U.S. economic data, rising recession risks, and geopolitical tensions [1][2] - U.S. economic indicators for April showed a significant decline, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) falling by 0.5%, retail sales growth dropping from 1.7% in March to 0.1%, and manufacturing output decreasing by 0.4% [1] - The gold price has broken below the key support level of $3200 per ounce, with a potential downward target of around $2900 per ounce, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that the recent price movements are characterized as a technical correction rather than a trend reversal, with a significant resistance level at $3500 per ounce [2] - The current price rebound around $3160 is viewed as a short-term opportunity, with specific trading strategies recommended for both buying on dips and selling on rebounds [4] - The articles emphasize the importance of monitoring upcoming economic indicators, such as the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the import price index, as well as geopolitical developments related to the Russia-Ukraine negotiations [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall market is influenced by a combination of factors including weak US economic data, geopolitical tensions, and trade policy uncertainties. Different commodities show diverse trends based on their specific supply - demand fundamentals and macro - economic impacts [2][4][6]. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - Overseas: US April retail sales had a 0.1% month - on - month increase, with weak consumer spending in optional categories. April PPI rose 2.4% year - on - year, lower than expected, and dropped 0.5% month - on - month. The dollar index fell to 100.7, 10Y US Treasury yield to 4.43%. Gold rebounded nearly 2% after hitting a one - month low, oil prices dropped over 2% due to supply expectations, and copper prices rose. Powell mentioned policy framework adjustments and potential long - term interest rate hikes [2]. - Domestic: A - shares declined on low volume. The bond market saw rising Treasury yields despite the arrival of trillion - level reserve requirement ratio cut funds due to concerns about the central bank's policy shift [3]. Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices rebounded. COMEX gold futures rose 1.74% to $3243.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 1.07% to $32.79 per ounce. Weak US economic data, a weaker dollar index, and increased geopolitical risk aversion drove the rise. Short - term price rebounds are expected, but prices are still in a phased adjustment [4][5]. Copper - LME copper inventory dropped to 186,000 tons. The global economic growth is expected to slow to 2.4% in 2025. Codelco and Rio Tinto plan to explore a new copper project in Chile. With low inventory and some positive factors, copper prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [6][7]. Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum futures rose 0.47% to 20,250 yuan/ton, while LME aluminum fell 0.93% to $2499/ton. Aluminum inventories decreased significantly. Weak US economic data increased macro - pressure, but inventory reduction supported prices. Aluminum prices are expected to be short - term strong but with limited upside [8][9][10]. Alumina - Alumina futures rose 4.93% to 2019 yuan/ton. Supply is tight due to enterprise maintenance and production cuts, and the market is expected to be bullish. Attention should be paid to supply - demand pattern changes [11]. Zinc - US economic data led to increased expectations of interest rate cuts, boosting zinc prices. However, the supply growth rate is higher than the demand growth rate. Zinc prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [12]. Lead - Due to inventory accumulation and weak consumption in the off - season, the fundamental support for lead prices is insufficient. But the positive macro - environment supports short - term high - level consolidation [13]. Tin - The supply - demand of tin is currently in a weak balance. The short - term trend is strong but faces pressure from the 40 - day moving average. Attention should be paid to inventory data [14][15]. Industrial Silicon - The supply is under pressure, and the demand is weak, especially in the photovoltaic industry. The market is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamental situation is bearish, with high inventory suppressing prices. Lithium prices may attempt a second downward breakthrough [18][19]. Nickel - The market has different expectations after the easing of tariff frictions. The supply surplus exists, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate [20]. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices are under pressure due to the expected increase in supply from the potential US - Iran agreement. However, considering the current price level, it is not advisable to short Shanghai crude oil futures at present [21]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel demand has recovered but with limited strength. Supply is stable, and steel prices are expected to oscillate [22][23]. Iron Ore - Steel mills' demand is falling, and the supply is generally loose. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate under pressure [24]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - US soybean crushing was higher than expected, and the drought in the US soybean - growing area increased. With weak domestic demand and falling Brazilian discounts, double - meal prices are expected to be weakly volatile [25][26]. Palm Oil - The sharp decline in US soybean oil prices drags down the palm oil market. Although Malaysian palm oil exports increased in the first half of May, the expected increase in domestic inventory in June may put pressure on prices. Palm oil is expected to oscillate in the short term [27][28].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights that recent economic data from the U.S. has opened up greater space for adjustments in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, leading to increased expectations for a loosening cycle [2] - Key economic indicators released on Thursday showed a comprehensive weakening: the Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly fell by 0.5% month-on-month, significantly deviating from the market expectation of a 0.2% increase; retail sales growth plummeted from 1.7% in March to just 0.1%; and manufacturing output declined by 0.4% year-on-year, exceeding the expected drop of 0.2% [2] - The bond market reacted sharply, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping by 11 basis points to 4.435%, marking the largest decline in nearly two months; the more policy-sensitive 2-year yield fell by 9.2 basis points to 3.961% [2] Group 2 - Current consumer weakness may have surpassed the impact of tariffs, indicating a deeper demand contraction, as warned by Macquarie strategist Thierry Wizman [2] - Walmart's decision to incorporate tariff costs into its pricing structure signifies that pressure on the consumer side may transition from expectation to a tangible impact [2] - In the silver market, the resistance levels are noted at the 7.690-7.760 range, while support levels are identified at 7.330-7.390 [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market continued to rise, with the ChiNext index increasing by over 1.65%, while total trading volume decreased to 1.32 trillion yuan compared to the previous day [1][4] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target rate at 4.25-4.50%, aligning with market expectations, and kept the balance sheet reduction pace unchanged [2][3] Federal Reserve Insights - The Fed's recent meeting indicated a cautious stance on monetary policy adjustments, with market expectations for three rate cuts this year in July, September, and December [1][2] - Powell highlighted the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and its impact on inflation and growth, suggesting a wait-and-see approach [2] Central Bank Actions - As of the end of April, China's gold reserves reached 73.77 million ounces (approximately 2,294.51 tons), marking a month-on-month increase of 70,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) for the sixth consecutive month [2] - The continuous increase in gold reserves reflects concerns over global economic uncertainty and risks associated with the US dollar [3] Sector Performance - In the A-share market, the telecommunications, defense, and power equipment sectors led the gains, with increases of 2.60%, 2.57%, and 1.62% respectively [4] - Conversely, the beauty care, non-ferrous metals, and steel sectors experienced declines of 0.96%, 0.43%, and 0.38% respectively [4] Trading Data - The market's trading volume was reported at 1,321.94 billion yuan, showing a decrease from the previous trading day [5] - The margin trading balance rose to 1,808.746 billion yuan, indicating an increase compared to the prior day [5]