Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is under significant pressure due to increased institutional redemptions, with the 10y Treasury bond yield fluctuating. The current redemption is a small - scale wave driven by the stock - bond seesaw effect, and the central bank maintains a relatively mild monetary policy stance. The bond market will enter a "hard mode" from August to October, and investment strategies should shift from alpha - mining to beta - trading [11][3][59] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. How will the stock - bond seesaw driven by risk preference play out? - **Judgment on the current redemption level**: Bank wealth management has a safety cushion, and the focus is on the redemption pressure of funds. Since the beginning of the year, the safety cushion of wealth management has stabilized the net value, and it has maintained net buying of bonds. The current redemption is concentrated in the fund sector, with obvious preventive redemptions by institutional investors [15][18] - **Review of bond market redemptions driven by the stock - bond seesaw effect**: Since 2022, there have been eight rounds of redemptions, with only the one in November 2022 being a large - scale one involving both funds and bank wealth management. The rest are small - scale ones mainly affecting funds. Redemption periods usually last 1 - 2 weeks, and they often end with a decline in the equity market [21][26] - **Current stage of redemption**: The market is in the negative feedback stage of the redemption wave, with the intensity similar to that in February 2025. Although the redemption pressure shows signs of relief, there is still a risk of recurrence, and the 10y Treasury bond yield may have an additional 4 - 8BP adjustment space [34][35] 2. Has the central bank's attitude changed? - The short - term amplification of capital friction during the bond market's weak adjustment does not necessarily mean a change in the central bank's attitude. The central bank's current liquidity injection is mainly short - term, and in the third quarter, factors such as fiscal policies, equity market diversion, and redemption frictions have increased capital disturbances. However, the central bank's current operations still show a relatively mild monetary policy stance [3][56] 3. From August to October, the bond market trading enters the "hard mode" - Seasonally, from August to October, bond market disturbances increase, and yields tend to rise. This year, due to the central bank's tightening of funds in the first quarter and the forward - shifting of market trading, the 10y Treasury bond yield has adjusted ahead of the seasonal pattern. After August, the bond market still faces uncertainties such as tariff negotiations and policy effect verification [59][61] - In reality, the fundamental data shows a "weak recovery" pattern, and there is no signal of a trend reversal, which provides some support for the bond market's upward movement [63] 4. Bond market strategy: Shift from alpha - mining to beta - trading - Maintain the view of a volatile bond market in the second half of the year. The 10y Treasury bond above 1.75% has allocation value, and the 30y Treasury bond has allocation value when the 30 - 10y spread is around 25bp. Trading desks should avoid large - scale left - hand trading [70][71] - From August to October, the market will be volatile, increasing the demand for liquidity. It is necessary to shift from alpha - mining to beta - trading and reduce positions in illiquid assets that have realized profits during favorable market windows [72][75] - Short - term products such as certificates of deposit have allocation value when the central bank's attitude is stable. Certificates of deposit above 1.65% and credit products after adjustment may be considered for allocation [78] 5. Review of the interest - rate bond market: Institutional redemption sentiment resurfaces, and the bond market is significantly pressured - **Funding situation**: The central bank's OMO has a small - scale net injection, and the funding situation is tight first and then loose [12] - **Primary issuance**: The net financing of Treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit has decreased, while that of local government bonds has increased [94] - **Benchmark changes**: The term spreads of both Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds have widened [88]

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 24 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ | 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | --- | | | 表1：国债期货7月23日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2509 | 119.520 | 118.900 | 119.270 | 119.35 ...

Group 1 - The core asset in the stock market is the CSI 300 index, recognized for its strong representation, high market acceptance, active trading, and large allocation [1] - The bond market has not experienced the anticipated bull market in the first half of the year, instead showing a "V-shaped" fluctuation due to various factors including changes in monetary policy and liquidity [3][4] - The 10-year government bond yield reached a high of 1.90% in March before stabilizing around 1.66% by July 10, 2025, indicating a return to a more stable environment [3][6] Group 2 - The external environment, including tariff policies and domestic economic factors, suggests a favorable environment for the bond market in the second half of the year, with expectations of a downward trend in bond yields [6][7] - The 10-year government bond is considered the core asset of the bond market, widely accepted as a benchmark for measuring interest rates and market yields [8] - The 10-year government bond ETF (511260) has shown consistent positive returns since its inception in August 2017, making it suitable for investors seeking stability [9][12] Group 3 - The 10-year government bond ETF offers advantages such as T+0 trading, low management fees of approximately 0.2% per year, and transparency in holdings, making it an attractive option for investors [12] - The rapid growth of the 10-year government bond ETF, surpassing 15 billion, reflects the market's recognition of this core asset [12]

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 10 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货7月9日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2509 | 120.860 | 120.900 | 121.090 | 120.960 | 0.230 | 0.19 | 74267 | 118951 ...