Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 27, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the long - term, the Politburo meeting in July maintained the stance of "moderate easing" for monetary policy, and the uncertainty of tariffs remains high. There is a risk of a post - export - rush decline, so the bull - market foundation remains unchanged. In the short - term, the stock - bond seesaw effect has strengthened since late June. The bullish equity market has put pressure on the bond market. Although the economic data in July weakened marginally, it still showed short - term resilience, making it difficult to trigger a significant increase in easing sentiment. A short - term bond - market rebound does not constitute a trend. Currently, the upward momentum of the A - share market has slowed, the bond market's sensitivity to the stock market has decreased, and with the central bank's active support for the capital market, bond - market sentiment has improved, and short - term varieties are more resilient than long - term ones [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The A - share market shrank and declined in the afternoon, boosting long - term bond sentiment. Long - term treasury bond futures closed significantly higher. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds across all maturities declined, with long - term yields falling mostly within 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond 250011 was reported at 1.75750%, down 0.6bp [8][9] - **Funding Market**: The central bank's net withdrawal did not prevent the inter - bank funding market from loosening. There were 580.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing. The central bank conducted 405.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 474.5 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index declined. Short - term funding rates showed mixed trends, with the overnight weighted rate of inter - bank deposits falling 3.5bp to 1.315% and the 7 - day rate falling 2.82bp to 1.49%. Medium - and long - term funds rose slightly, with the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate rising 4bp to around 1.64% [10] 2. Industry News - The Party Committee of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized further deepening industrial assistance to Tibet. Central state - owned enterprises are encouraged to develop characteristic plateau industries in Tibet, increase investment in infrastructure, and promote major projects such as the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project and the Sichuan - Tibet Railway. They should also enhance ethnic unity through various means [13] - The 13th plenary session of the Standing Committee of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference was held, with discussions on formulating the "15th Five - Year Plan". Different committee members put forward suggestions on developing new - quality productive forces, integrating the digital economy with the real economy, boosting consumption, and enhancing scientific and technological innovation capabilities. The US Secretary of Commerce said that details of the US - Japan agreement would be announced this week, involving Japan's commitment of $550 billion in investment in the US for domestic production of semiconductors, antibiotics, and rare earths [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Data on the trading of treasury bond futures contracts on August 26, including opening prices, closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and position changes, were provided. Also, information on the inter - maturity spreads of main treasury bond futures contracts and inter - variety spreads (2 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year; 5 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year; 10 - year vs 30 - year) and the trends of main treasury bond futures contracts were mentioned [6][15][16] - **Money Market**: Information on the term - structure changes and trends of SHIBOR, the changes in the weighted inter - bank pledged - repurchase interest rates, and the changes in the inter - bank deposit pledged - repurchase interest rates were provided [30][34] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) was provided [36]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 26, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 3. Core Viewpoints - Long - term, the bullish foundation of the bond market remains unchanged as the Politburo meeting in July maintained the "moderately loose" stance on monetary policy, and there is high uncertainty in tariffs with the risk of a post - rush - export decline. Short - term, the stock - bond seesaw effect has strengthened since late June, and the bullish equity market has pressured the bond market. The marginal weakening of July's fundamental data still shows short - term resilience, making it difficult to trigger a significant increase in easing sentiment. The short - term bond market rebound is unlikely to form a trend. Currently, the stock - bond seesaw has slightly weakened, the central bank is actively supporting the capital market, and short - term bond varieties are more resilient [11][12]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: A - shares reached new highs, but the bond market was slightly desensitized. The Shanghai real - estate policy met expectations with limited impact on the bond market. After continuous adjustments, the bond market's protection cushion thickened, and with the central bank's active support and rising overseas easing expectations, treasury bond futures rebounded across the board [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities declined, with the long - end yields dropping more, about 3bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was 1.7640%, down 2.1bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: The central bank actively supported the capital market, and the inter - bank capital market loosened. There were 2665 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 2884 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and injected 6000 billion yuan of MLF. The inter - bank capital sentiment index declined, short - term capital interest rates fluctuated, the overnight weighted average of inter - bank deposits fell 6.2bp to 1.35%, the 7 - day rate rose 5.4bp to 1.52%, and the medium - and long - term capital remained stable [10]. 4.2 Industry News - A personal consumer loan discount policy will be launched on September 1, which is expected to accelerate institutions' expansion into consumption scenarios. Market rumors about restrictions on bond trading methods for small and medium - sized institutions were not confirmed by industry insiders. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" real - estate sales season is approaching, and policies have achieved positive results in promoting the real - estate market [13]. - Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank meeting increased market bets on a September interest - rate cut [14]. 4.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Information on trading data, cross - maturity spreads, cross - variety spreads, and price trends of treasury bond futures was provided [6][17][21]. - **Money Market**: Data on inter - bank repurchase rates, SHIBOR term structure, and trends were presented [28][33]. - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curves was given [38].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the central bank's operations have been relatively proactive, leading to fluctuations in the bond market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising above 3800 points, marking a new high. This has resulted in a noticeable stock-bond effect, causing the bond market to weaken and fund net values to decline, triggering redemption indicators [1][10]. - Credit bond yields have generally risen, with most credit spreads widening. Specifically, the yields on 1-year short-term bonds, 4-5 year AA-rated industrial bonds, and 15-year medium-term notes have passively narrowed, while 9-10 year municipal bonds and 3-4 year insurance subordinated bonds have shown relatively weak performance [1][10]. Group 2 - The report highlights that the net asset value of medium- to long-term pure bond funds fell by 16.18 basis points on August 18, triggering a redemption signal. The cumulative decline for the week was 13.5 basis points for medium- to long-term pure bond funds and 3.91 basis points for short-term pure bond funds [2][12]. - Fund selling of credit bonds was significant, with net sales concentrated in 1-3 year, 3-5 year, 7-10 year, and over 10-year categories, totaling net sales of 186 billion, 106 billion, 204 billion, and 62 billion respectively. In contrast, wealth management products continued to net buy credit bonds, particularly short-term bonds within 3 years, with a total net purchase of 185 billion [3][18]. Group 3 - The outlook for the bond market remains cautious, with expectations of seasonal headwinds from August to October. The current economic fundamentals have not shown significant improvement, and the central bank's stance remains supportive. The bond market is in a phase of adjustment rather than a trend reversal [4][31]. - The report suggests that there are structural accumulation opportunities amidst the adjustments. The widening of credit spreads across most categories, except for certain AA-rated and 15-year bonds, has improved the cost-effectiveness of credit bond allocations. It is recommended to avoid long-term credit bonds for trading purposes in the short term and to focus on the cost-effectiveness of medium- to short-term bonds [4][31].

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 21, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Long - term, the bullish foundation of the bond market remains unchanged as the Politburo meeting in July maintained the "moderately loose" stance on monetary policy, and there are uncertainties in tariffs and potential risks of export decline after front - loading. However, in the short term, the stock - bond seesaw effect has strengthened since late June, and the bullish equity market has put pressure on the bond market. The marginal weakening of July's fundamental data still shows short - term resilience, making it difficult to trigger a significant increase in easing sentiment. The short - term rebound of the bond market is unlikely to form a trend. A similar situation occurred from February to March this year, and it may require the alleviation of relevant negative factors for the bond market to stabilize and rise again. It is recommended to maintain the strategy of going long on short - term bonds and short on long - term bonds [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: The stock - bond seesaw continued. In the morning, the weak stock market boosted the bond market sentiment, and treasury bond futures rebounded across the board. However, in the afternoon, the rising stock market suppressed the bond market, and the decline widened at the end of the session [8] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities increased, with a larger increase at the long end. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 reported 1.7825%, up 1.65bp [9] - **Funding Market**: The central bank actively protected the funding market. The inter - bank funding market tightened in the morning and loosened again in the afternoon. There were 218.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 397.5 billion yuan. The tax - payment period disturbance was gradually weakening. The short - term funding rates increased slightly, with the overnight weighted rate of inter - bank deposits rising 0.29bp to 1.47% and the 7 - day rate rising 2.28bp to 1.568%. The medium - and long - term funds were stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate remained around 1.6% [10] - **Conclusion**: Long - term bullish foundation unchanged, but short - term pressure exists. Maintain the strategy of going long on short - term bonds and short on long - term bonds [11][12] 2. Industry News - The deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, Zou Lan, stated that policies would be strengthened to stimulate the vitality of the movable property financing market, which is important for small and medium - sized enterprises to solve financing problems and for the diversified development of the financial market [13] - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy implementation report proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain sufficient liquidity, promote a reasonable recovery of prices, and use structural monetary policy tools to support key areas [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Include information on the trading data of treasury bond futures contracts, cross - maturity spreads, cross - variety spreads, and the trend of main contracts [6][15][16] - **Money Market**: Data on bank - to - bank pledged repurchase weighted rates, inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase rates, SHIBOR term structure and trend [25][28][33] - **Derivatives Market**: Data on Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curves and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves [37][38]

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - Long - term, the bull - market foundation of the bond market remains unchanged as the Politburo meeting in July maintained a "moderately loose" stance on monetary policy and there is high tariff uncertainty. But short - term, the stock - bond seesaw effect since late June has put pressure on the bond market, and the short - term rebound of the bond market is unlikely to form a trend. It is recommended to maintain the strategy of going long on short - term and short on long - term bonds [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Condition**: A - shares hitting new highs suppressed the bond market, with treasury bond futures falling across the board and long - end bonds experiencing larger declines. The yields of 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds approached the 2.0% and 1.8% thresholds respectively [8] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities rose, with long - end yields rising significantly by 4 - 6bp. As of 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.785%, up 4bp [9] - **Funding Market**: The central bank increased its investment to offset tax - period disturbances, and the inter - bank funding market tightened marginally. There were 112 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 266.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 154.5 billion yuan. Short - term funding rates rose, while medium - and long - term funding remained stable [10] - **Conclusion**: The long - term bull - market foundation of the bond market remains unchanged, but short - term pressure exists. It is recommended to maintain the strategy of going long on short - term and short on long - term bonds and pay attention to the central bank's investment during the tax - period this week [11][12] 2. Industry News - The Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, Zou Lan, stated that policy support will be strengthened to stimulate the vitality of the movable property financing market, which is important for small and medium - sized enterprises and the diversification of the financial market [13] - On the evening of August 17, Eastern Time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Washington, and on the afternoon of August 18, Eastern Time, he was scheduled to meet with US President Donald Trump [13] - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy implementation report proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, promote a reasonable recovery of prices, and use structural monetary policy tools [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Data on trading of various treasury bond futures contracts on August 18, including settlement prices, trading volumes, and open interest, were provided [6] - **Money Market**: Information on SHIBOR term structure changes, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate changes, and other money - market data were presented [28][29] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves was provided [32]

Group 1: Economic Fundamentals - In August, the focus will be on the verification of policy effects, with new policy financial tools expected to boost credit and investment recovery[1] - The "anti-involution" narrative is expected to lead to moderate price recovery, although short-term trends remain uncertain[1] - External factors indicate a potential 90-day extension of the exemption period, with reduced uncertainty in tariff policies, but the downward trend in exports is expected to continue[1] Group 2: Liquidity and Market Dynamics - Historical data shows that August is a month with potential liquidity fluctuations, but risks are limited under current monetary policy targets[2] - The liquidity gap in August is projected to be around 1.8 trillion, with a central tendency likely to remain around 1.5%[2] - The supply of government bonds is expected to accelerate, with net financing projected between 1.5 to 1.6 trillion[3] Group 3: Institutional Behavior - Demand for bonds may weaken due to increased supply and limited institutional buying power, with a supply-demand index for August expected to be at 59%, significantly lower than the second quarter average[3] - The market is likely to experience structural pressure due to the imbalance between supply and demand[3] Group 4: Market Strategy - The bond market is entering the second phase of a "three-step" strategy, with the 10-year government bond expected to fluctuate between 1.65% and 1.75%[3] - Investors are advised to be flexible and consider timely profit-taking in response to key market events and policy announcements[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the last week of July, with the central bank's support, funds smoothly crossed the month. The outcome of the Sino-US talks was in line with expectations, and the Politburo meeting mainly focused on advancing existing policies. The equity market fluctuated weakly, and the bond market shifted towards recovery. On Friday, the VAT policies for treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds were adjusted, and the yield of the 10-year active treasury bond fell below 1.7%. Throughout the week, the yield of the 1-year active treasury bond dropped by 1.75BP to 1.3600%, the yield of the 10-year active treasury bond decreased by 3.75BP to 1.6950%, and the yield of the 30-year treasury bond declined by 4.45BP to 1.9030% [3][6][7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents (1) Interest Rate Bond Market Review: Limited Increment from the Politburo Meeting, "Old Bond Rush" Driven by VAT Adjustment - **Overall Situation**: In the last week of July, with the central bank's support, funds smoothly crossed the month. The Sino-US talks had no unexpected results, and the Politburo meeting mainly advanced existing policies. The equity market fluctuated weakly, and the bond market recovered. After the bond VAT adjustment policy was announced on Friday, the yield of the 10-year active treasury bond fell below 1.7% [3][6][7]. - **Daily Performance**: - **July 28th**: The central bank net injected 3251 billion yuan. The bond market continued the recovery trend, and the yields of major treasury bonds decreased by 1.5 - 2.5BP [7][10][11]. - **July 29th**: The central bank net injected 2344 billion yuan. Affected by the Sino-US talks and Politburo meeting expectations, the equity market strengthened, and the yields of medium - and long - term treasury bonds over 5 years increased by 3 - 4BP [7][12]. - **July 30th**: The central bank net injected 1585 billion yuan. The Politburo meeting did not mention "anti - involution" and real estate policies much. The equity market rebounded, and the yields of major treasury bonds decreased by 2 - 4BP [7][13]. - **July 31st**: The central bank net withdrew 478 billion yuan in the morning. Due to factors such as the PMI data being lower than expected and the weakening of the equity market, the bond market performed strongly, and the yields of major treasury bonds decreased by 1 - 2BP [7][14]. - **August 1st**: The central bank net withdrew 6633 billion yuan in the morning. The equity market continued to correct. After the bond VAT adjustment policy was announced in the evening, the yield of the 10-year treasury bond first rose and then fell, closing at 1.6950% [7][15][16]. (2) Funding Situation: The Central Bank Conducted Net OMO Injections Near the Month - End, and the Funding Situation was Balanced and Loose The central bank net injected 69 billion yuan this week. The funding sentiment index was generally below 50. The cross - month funding situation was stable and loose. The issuance price of 1-year national and joint - stock bank certificates of deposit dropped to 1.6250%, and the weekly average of DR007 was 1.53% [1][7]. (3) Primary Issuance: Net Financing of Treasury Bonds, Policy Financial Bonds, and Interbank Certificates of Deposit Increased, while Net Financing of Local Government Bonds Decreased No specific data on the increase and decrease of net financing are provided in the text, but it is mentioned that the net financing of treasury bonds, policy financial bonds, and interbank certificates of deposit increased, and the net financing of local government bonds decreased [24]. (4) Benchmark Changes: The Term Spreads of Treasury Bonds and China Development Bank Bonds Both Narrowed - **Yield Curve Changes**: The yields of short - term treasury bonds dropped by 1.01BP, and the yields of short - term China Development Bank bonds decreased by 2.52BP. The yields of long - term treasury bonds declined by 2.65BP, and the yields of long - term China Development Bank bonds fell by 4.64BP [19]. - **Absolute Level of Term Spreads**: The 10Y - 1Y spread of treasury bonds narrowed by 1.64BP to 33.25BP, and the 10Y - 1Y spread of China Development Bank bonds narrowed by 2.12BP to 26.45BP [19].

Report Information Report Title - "National Debt Daily" [1] Report Date - August 1, 2025 [2] Researchers - He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), contact: 18665641296, email: hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3008762 [3] - Huang Wenxin (National Debt and Container Shipping), contact: 021 - 60635739, email: huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3051589 [3] - Nie Jiayi (Stock Index), contact: 021 - 60635735, email: niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03124070 [3] Key Points Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Report Core View - Since mid - late July, market risk preference has significantly increased. The strong performance of the stock market, the recovery of commodities, and the rising inflation expectations have pressured the bond market. However, the bond market did not experience a panic - driven decline. The long - term bullish environment for the bond market remains unchanged due to the potential economic downturn and the room for monetary easing. The third quarter is likely a policy observation period [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Commodity price drops dragged down cyclical stocks and the stock market, cooling inflation expectations and leading to a full - line rebound in national debt futures. The yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market all rose by about 1 - 2bp, while the yield of the 10 - year active bond 250011 dropped by 1.6bp to 1.7040% [8][9] - **Funding Market**: Cross - month funds were abundant, and the central bank shifted to a net withdrawal. There were 3310 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 2832 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 478 billion yuan. Short - term interest rates rose slightly but remained at a loose level, and medium - and long - term funds were stable and abundant [10] - **Conclusion**: The bond market adjustment was not a panic - driven decline. The sustainability of the rally in cyclical stocks and commodities is questionable. If economic growth and inflation expectations are revised, the bond market will recover. In the long run, the bullish environment for the bond market remains unchanged, but the third quarter is likely a policy observation period [11][12] 2. Industry News - **Macro Data**: China's official non - manufacturing PMI in July was 50.1, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month but still above the critical point. The official manufacturing PMI was 49.3, down 0.4 percentage points, and the composite PMI output index was 50.2, down 0.5 percentage points, indicating that overall business activities remained in an expansionary range [13] - **Macro Policy**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October. It emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, implementing a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and taking various measures to support the economy and resolve risks [14] 3. Data Overview - **National Debt Futures Market**: Data on trading, including opening prices, closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, etc., of various national debt futures contracts on July 31 were presented [6] - **Money Market**: Information on SHIBOR term structure changes, SHIBOR trends, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate changes, and silver - deposit inter - bank pledged repurchase rate changes was provided [28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curves and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves was provided [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July 2025, extreme weather affected the release of downstream demand, causing a decline in new orders and production, with demand sub - items returning to the contraction zone. However, there were also increasing positive factors such as rising price indicators and improved macro - confidence. For the bond market, attention should be paid to the seesaw effect between data verification and risk - preference boosting, and the transmission effect of "strong expectations" to reality after August [4][10][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Manufacturing PMI: Weather Factors Disturb, and the Boom Declines Temporarily 3.1.1 Supply and Demand: Demand Declines More Than Production - Production slowed down, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.5 pct to 50.5%. Factors included the weakening of the June rush - to - deliver effect, extreme high - temperature weather affecting demand and restocking, and industry "anti - involution" measures [2][16]. - New orders fell into the contraction zone, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.8 pct to 49.4%. The gap between new orders and new export orders narrowed to 2.3 pct, and domestic demand orders slowed more than export orders due to extreme weather [2][19]. 3.1.2 Foreign Trade: The Marginal Effect of "Rushing to Export" Weakens - New export orders declined month - on - month by 0.6 pct to 47.1%, and imports remained flat at 47.8%. The concentrated release of previous back - logged export orders in May - June weakened in July [2][22]. 3.1.3 Price: The Expectation of "Anti - Involution" and Rising Commodity Prices Lead to Accelerated Price Repair - The purchase price of raw materials and the ex - factory price increased by 3.1 pct and 2.1 pct month - on - month to 51.5% and 48.3% respectively. The increase was larger than in June, and it was expected that the PPI in July would improve marginally [2][27]. 3.1.4 Inventory: The De - stocking Rhythm Accelerates Relatively - Raw material inventory decreased by 0.3 pct month - on - month to 47.7%, and finished - product inventory decreased by 0.7%. Production restocking slowed down, and enterprises de - stocked faster [2][30]. 3.2 Non - manufacturing PMI: Construction Slows Down, and Service Consumption Differentiates Widely - In July, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 pct. The service industry PMI decreased by 0.1 pct to 50.0%, and the construction industry PMI decreased by 2.2 pct to 50.6%. - The construction industry PMI declined due to the influence of the rainy season, with housing construction activities falling below the boom - bust line and civil engineering construction remaining above 55%. After the rainy season, there may be a rush - to - work effect, and the PMI is expected to recover. - The service industry PMI dropped to the boom - bust line. Retail and transportation industries were boosted by summer consumption, while the accommodation and catering industries had relatively weak demand growth [3][37].

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: July 31, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Since mid - late July, the market risk preference has significantly increased, and the stock market's strength, commodity warming, and rising inflation expectations have pressured the bond market. However, the bond market did not experience a panic - driven decline. The market is still cautious about traditional factors driving the stock - bond pattern shift. The sustainability of the rally in cyclical stocks and commodities is questionable. If economic growth and inflation expectations are revised, the bond market will recover. In the long run, the bullish environment for the bond market remains, but the Politburo meeting's optimistic economic judgment and the lack of mention of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts may make the third quarter a policy observation period [11][12]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Conditions - The progress of the China - US talks on the extension exemption period did not exceed market expectations. Inter - bank cross - month funds were stable, and the A - share market tumbled in the afternoon, leading to a full - line recovery and gain in treasury bond futures [8]. Interest Rate Bonds - The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities declined by about 2 - 3bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond 250011 reported at 1.7155%, down 3.2bp [9]. Money Market - At the end of the month, the central bank made consecutive net injections, and the inter - bank money market was loose. There were 150.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 309 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 158.5 billion yuan. The inter - bank money sentiment index eased, short - term money rates declined across the board, and medium - long - term funds were stable [10]. 2. Industry News - On July 23, the CPC Central Committee held a symposium for non - Party personages to listen to opinions on the current economic situation and the second - half economic work. From July 28 - 29, China - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm, and both sides agreed to extend the suspension of part of the US reciprocal tariffs (24%) and China's counter - measures for 90 days [13]. - Minister of Finance Lan Fo'an wrote that the government should make full use of a more proactive fiscal policy, increase counter - cyclical fiscal adjustment, and promote the healthy development of the real estate market [14]. 3. Data Overview Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides data on treasury bond futures trading on July 30, including contract information such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, etc. It also mentions the spread between different contracts and the trend of the main contracts [6]. Money Market - The report presents data on the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged repo weighted interest rate change, and inter - bank deposit - pledged repo rate change [28][32]. Derivatives Market - The report shows the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [34].